Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s
capacity to respond to future extreme weather
and natural disaster events and to provide
seasonal forecasting services
Report by Chloe Munro
December 2011
An independent report commissioned by the Department of
Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities and presented to
the Australian Government Parliamentary Secretary for
Sustainability and Urban Water
Chloe Munro
December 2011
Disclaimer
This report was prepared by Chloe Munro. The views it contains are not necessarily those of
the Australian Government. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the
contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept
responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for
any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the u se of, or
reliance on, the contents of this publication.
Senator the Hon Don Farrell
Parliamentary Secretary for Sustainability and Urban Water
Parliament House
Canberra ACT 2600
Dear Senator
On 18 July 2011 you announced a Review of the capacity of the Bureau of Meteorology to respond
to future extreme weather and natural disaster events and to provide accurate and timely seasonal
forecasting services.
The announcement was timely, given recent experience of multiple severe weather events across
Australia. Near concurrent floods, tropical cyclones and bushfires in late 2010 to early 2011 placed
the Bureau under enormous pressure.
It has been a great pleasure to lead this Review and I have been impressed by the high regard in
which the Bureau is held and by the dedication and commitment of the Bureau’s staff. I would also
like to express my gratitude to all those who assisted me in the Review, including many stakeholders
and customers of the Bureau’s services, the Bureau’s Executive Team and staff, and the Review
Secretariat.
Taking as a starting point the experiences and expectations of the individuals and organisations who
rely on the Bureau’s services, the Review carefully examined the Bureau’s operations, and identified
numerous strengths, some areas of weakness, and risks that require early attention. The Review has
proposed a suite of priority actions to address these risks and additional options for further
consideration by the Bureau and by the government.
I trust you will find this report informative and that it will assist the government and the Bureau to
chart a course for the future that maintains the Bureau’s capacity to provide vital services for the
benefit of all Australians.
Yours sincerely
Chloe Munro
December 2011
Cc Paul Grimes
Secretary
Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water,
Population and Communities
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements....................................................................................................................... i
Executive Overview...................................................................................................................... ii
Context for this Review ....................................................................................................................... ii
Headline Findings ............................................................................................................................... iii
Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1
Review Context and Purpose............................................................................................................... 1
The Bureau .......................................................................................................................................... 1
Approach taken by the Review ........................................................................................................... 2
Structure of the report ........................................................................................................................ 2
Chapter 1 Customers, Services and Trends in Demand .................................................................. 3
1.1 Extreme weather and flood warning services ............................................................................... 3
1.2 Seasonal forecasting services...................................................................................................... 16
1.3 General weather forecasting ...................................................................................................... 21
1.4 Other services .............................................................................................................................. 24
1.5 The Basic Product Set .................................................................................................................. 26
1.6 Discretion to manage workloads during peaks of demand ........................................................ 27
Chapter 2 Capacity, Capability and Constraints ........................................................................... 29
2.1 People.......................................................................................................................................... 29
2.2 Processes ..................................................................................................................................... 35
2.3 Technology .................................................................................................................................. 36
2.4 Other inputs and suppliers .......................................................................................................... 40
Chapter 3 Challenges, Risks and Opportunities ........................................................................... 43
3.1 Findings from other reviews........................................................................................................ 43
3.2 Gaps and inconsistencies in services ........................................................................................... 47
3.3 Delivery risks ............................................................................................................................... 51
Chapter 4 Practical Steps ............................................................................................................ 54
4.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 54
4.2 Recommended priority actions to mitigate risks requiring early attention ................................ 59
4.3 Recommended priority actions that involve strategic choices for government.......................... 63
4.4 Recommended priority actions for the Bureau to support consistent service standards and build
organisational resilience ................................................................................................................... 68
4.5 Options that could provide savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau .... 70
4.6 Options to provide enhanced services where there is proven demand ...................................... 75
Appendices ................................................................................................................................ 81
Appendix A: Terms of Reference ....................................................................................................... 81
Appendix B: List of submissions and questionnaire responses ......................................................... 83
Appendix C: Stakeholder questionnaire ............................................................................................ 87
Appendix D: Recommendations from the Process Review ................................................................ 94
Appendix E: Peer Reviewers .............................................................................................................. 95
Appendix F: Bureau functions ........................................................................................................... 96
Appendix G: Report cross-referenced against the Review’s Terms of Reference.............................. 97
Appendix H: Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 99
Appendix I: Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... 103
Appendix J: Glossary ....................................................................................................................... 104
Endnotes.......................................................................................................................................... 105
Acknowledgements
I was greatly assisted in this Review by the Bureau’s Director, Greg Ayers, Acting Director, Rob
Vertessy, the Executive Team, and many other staff who responded openly and comprehensively to
the Review’s many requests for information.
I also thank Jim Abraham, Director-General, Weather and Environmental Monitoring, Meteorological
Service of Canada; Gary Carter, Director, Office of Hydrologic Development, United States National
Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and Rob Varley, Operations
and Services Director, UK Met Office. In their peer reviews of the draft report, these international
experts validated many of the Review’s initial findings and provided useful additional insights.
I very much appreciated the direct input of the Bureau’s stakeholders, who took the time to meet
with me and members of the Review Secretariat at various locations across the country, or to
provide written submissions against the Review’s terms of reference.
In particular, I would like to acknowledge James Shevlin, Chair of the inter-departmental Steering
Committee, and the Review Secretariat: Jacqueline Doyle, Glenn Block, and Jim Baldwin from the
Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities and Anthony Rea
from the Bureau. I was fortunate to be supported by such a capable and hard working team.
Chloe Munro
i
Executive Overview
Context for this Review
The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is one of
Australia’s most cherished institutions. For most
Australians, not a day would go by without
commenting on the weather, checking the forecast
and making some decision based on the outlook,
which has more than likely been sourced from the
Bureau. In many cases these are minor decisions
with marginal impact – whether to carry an
umbrella or to plan an outing for the weekend.
Others have more substantial value – whether
conditions will be suitable for laying concrete, or
what energy demand is forecast.
For some industries, notably agriculture,
significant economic decisions are taken with the
medium term seasonal outlook in mind. Such
decisions are based on experience, knowledge of
the local climate record and expert advice
frequently including information from the Bureau.
When extreme weather conditions are imminent,
the Bureau’s warnings and alerts have even
greater significance for the protection of life and
property. As natural disasters unfold, key decisions
by the emergency services are predicated on
advice from the Bureau about how the event is
progressing. Emergency planning and
preparedness and post-event recovery and review
are also assisted by evidence from the Bureau.
This Review has been commissioned to examine
the capacity of the Bureau to provide these crucial
services in light of the recent increase in frequency
of extreme events which has been accompanied by
greater demands on the Bureau for information
and advice. Climate change modelling indicates the
incidence and severity of extreme weather and
natural disaster events may increase in the future.
Climate change also means that the historical
record provides less reliable guidance on the
expected range of seasonal conditions, increasing
the value of accurate and timely seasonal
forecasting services.
In addressing its terms of reference the Review has
focussed on factors which affect the sustainability
of the Bureau as an enterprise. Starting with the
Bureau’s customers, the Review has examined
their experience and expectations of the Bureau’s
products and services and more generally the
drivers of future demand. This provided the
context for an assessment of the Bureau’s people,
processes and technology which together create
the capacity to respond. Some clear themes
emerged from this analysis, in terms of risks to
ii
maintaining current capacity in the medium term
and constraints on the ability of the Bureau to
respond to changes in demand.
Critically, some of the drivers of future demand are
dependent on choices made by governments
regarding the use of finite resources in protecting
communities from the impact of severe weather
events and natural disasters. Changes to the
structure and funding of Australia’s emergency
management system would have an impact on the
capacity that is required of the Bureau if it is to
play its part in this system to an adequate
standard. Any new initiatives, such as any greater
involvement through AusAID in disaster response
in neighbouring countries, or the implementation
of a national framework for heatwaves, would
similarly depend on the capacity of the Bureau to
contribute.
These questions are particularly pressing in the
area of flood management. The Review has found
ambiguity and inconsistencies in roles and
responsibilities of the various players, including
the Bureau. A comprehensive solution to these
problems is beyond the scope of this Review as it
would require extensive consultation with and
commitment from all levels of government.
However, clarifying and communicating roles and
responsibilities is a necessary precondition to
determining what is required of the Bureau and
therefore what actions should be taken to secure
the necessary capacity. Some, but not all, options
for strengthening Australia’s system of flood
management would entail a greater role for the
Bureau.
Similarly, with respect to seasonal forecasting and
other value-adding services, the extent to which
the gap between capacity to supply and emerging
demand should be closed depends on the strategic
direction set for the Bureau by the Australian
Government. Necessarily, unless full cost-recovery
is feasible, any step change in the range and
quality of services delivered by the Bureau
requires investment of resources in competition
with other priorities of government.
For these reasons, the Review has formulated its
recommendations as either priority actions or
options for future consideration. The priority
actions are directed towards the most immediate
challenges facing the Bureau, and include some
alternatives which depend on the Australian
Government’s views about the strategic direction
of the Bureau and its operating context. Some
reappraisal of the relative priority of recent
initiatives might be required.
Executive Overview
Headline Findings
Demand
It could be said that the Bureau is victim of its own
success. The Review has found a high degree of
respect for the Bureau’s capability and people, and
general satisfaction with the Bureau’s services.
However, this is coupled with a widely articulated
desire for enhanced products and higher levels of
service.
Many of the customers for the services which are
the subject of this Review are well aware of the
opportunity for improvement from new
technology or infrastructure investment. For
example, the radar views are amongst the most
heavily visited pages on the Bureau’s website and
they provide critical information to emergency
management agencies. As a result there is an
expressed demand for gaps in radar coverage to
be filled.
Some customers are also aware of the services
available internationally including developments in
modelling techniques which can improve the
accuracy and range of forecasts. For example, the
Interim Report of the Queensland Floods
Commission of Inquiry recommended that
“information [should be requested] from the
Bureau of Meteorology as to its willingness to
provide ensemble forecasts and consideration [be
given] as to whether and how ensemble forecasts
In addition, some exogenous factors are driving
demand in a way which is difficult for the Bureau
to resist. Whether or not as a manifestation of
climate change, the incidence and severity of
extreme weather events appears to be increasing.
This is highlighted in the chart below which shows
the trend in the number of severe weather
warnings issued by the Bureau nationally since
1997 (see Diagram 1).
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
While germane to the findings of this Review, the
national arrangements for flood management are
beyond its terms of reference. Nevertheless,
because of the significance of the issues raised
some options have been identified for adjusting
these arrangements. Some of these options would
require a decision by the Australian Government
to take on responsibilities that currently rest with
the other tiers of government but arguably are not
being discharged as effectively as the community
expects. Given the nature of flood risk and the
extent of the recovery costs that have been borne
by the Australian Government in recent events,
these options are worthy of consideration at least
in principle.
can be incorporated into decision-making.” Users
of the Bureau’s Seasonal Climate Outlook product
also believe it would have greater utility if was
offered at higher resolution, so that they could
make decisions based on the outlook for their
immediate locality rather than the average over a
whole region.
Number of Warnings
Indicative implementation costs or potential
savings are provided for many of the options.
These estimates are based on financial data
provided by the Bureau and other sources. The
Review has not independently validated these data
and envisages that any actions undertaken as a
result of its findings will be subject to rigorous
assessment in the normal course of the Budget
process.
Financial Year
Diagram 1 – Severe weather warnings, July 1997 to
June 2011
This trend is expected to continue. Urban
development and growth in fixed infrastructure is
also increasing sensitivity to the impact of these
events. The resulting pressure on the Bureau has
been exacerbated by events of different types
striking in several parts of the country in more or
less the same time periods.
Heightened state and local government risk
awareness has led to new investment in local
emergency services and some changes in the way
they are organised and disasters are managed.
This has led to greater expectations on the Bureau
to deliver tailored services, including frequent
briefings and updates and to contribute both to
planning processes and to post-incident reviews.
There is also an expressed preference to deal with
known and trusted individuals who have sufficient
local experience and communication skill to deliver
weather information in a way which is most
relevant to decision-makers on the ground.
Media expectations form a significant part of this
demand, driven by the proliferation of news
iii
Executive Overview
channels and the advent of 24 hour news
broadcasting as well as the need to use all
available channels so that warnings and alerts
reach as wide an audience as possible.
If state-based emergency management systems
change in some jurisdictions, it does not
automatically follow that the Bureau can or should
change its services to match. There are certainly
benefits to the current level of integration that is
evident between the Bureau’s regional services
and the local emergency management
arrangements. In the best cases, this is
underpinned by an explicit Memorandum of
Understanding and cost-recovery for services
which are deemed to be beyond the Bureau’s
basic product set. But there are also costs
associated with inconsistent arrangements that
have developed in different jurisdictions and with
services being provided on an ad-hoc basis without
clarifying that the necessary resources may not be
available to deliver those services on all occasions.
Changes in policy by other agencies, such as an
increase in prescribed burning or the introduction
of the new fire danger rating system, place
demands on the Bureau regardless of whether it
has the capacity to service this demand. To
address this risk, this Review concludes it would be
beneficial to document all service level
agreements between the Bureau and the relevant
emergency services organisations. Any change in
service level would require explicit agreement
about how the requisite resources were to be
funded. It is likely that this approach would bring
to the fore some inconsistencies in the current
arrangements in different jurisdictions. It would
then be desirable to establish some guiding
principles, perhaps with the leadership of
Emergency Management Australia, to clarify the
boundary between the services to be funded by
the Australian Government and those to be costrecovered.
People
The Bureau is facing a number of constraints to its
capacity to respond to these general trends in
demand. Perhaps the most critical of these is
simply the limited number of skilled
meteorologists and hydrologists who are able to
deliver frontline services during extreme weather
events. Recent experience has shown how the
Bureau can be stretched to the limits of its
capacity by long running or simultaneous events.
In early 2011, there was exceptionally high
demand for the Bureau’s extreme weather
services when Australia experienced the
iv
devastating effects of unprecedented floods in
Queensland and Victoria, tropical cyclones in the
Northern Territory, Queensland and Western
Australia and severe bushfires in Western
Australia. Services were delivered only by virtue of
dedicated individuals working well beyond what
could be regarded as reasonable or even safe
hours, by deployment of a range of resources such
as recently retired staff and temporary contractors
who had been engaged for the roll-out of the Next
Generation Forecasting and Warning Services
project and through the patience and
understanding of its customers. This does not
constitute a sustainable “surge capacity”. For the
2011-12 summer season, the Bureau has taken
what measures it can to prepare for a repeat of
such a scenario. These arrangements highlight that
the Bureau has limited further reserves on which
to draw. A more sustainable long term position
requires some additional bolstering of capacity.
Analysis of workforce trends in the Bureau,
abstracting away from the impact of new functions
which have been added from time to time, shows
a long term decline in the numbers of staff in most
categories and specifically in the numbers of
meteorologists working in the seven regional
forecasting centres. These are the key individuals
who deliver public weather services including
severe weather services.
The senior weather forecasters in particular have
trusted working relationships with their
counterparts in the State emergency services, built
up over many years. Their contextual knowledge is
seen as critical to their ability to contribute to
effective decision-making, such as whether to
evacuate a hospital or where to deploy fire fighting
crews.
Perhaps surprisingly, while the organisation has a
total of 1490 ongoing and 284 non-ongoing staff
who undertake observations, research, analysis
and essential support functions, there are fewer
than a hundred frontline meteorologists who
directly provide public and extreme weather
forecasts. Given that weather forecasting is a 24/7
service so that five people on shiftwork are
required to cover a single position, this appears to
be very lean. In addition 42 staff are dedicated to
flood warning and forecasting across Australia,
generally without the scope to undertake night
shifts (due to limited staffing numbers).
The Bureau’s operations are largely funded from
government appropriation, although an increasing
proportion of revenues is sourced from costrecovered and commercial services. The Bureau’s
Executive Overview
operating revenue for 2010-11 was $264 million,
plus a capital budget of $55 million.
Given that staff costs represent just over half the
Bureau’s expenditure it is not surprising that a
gradual reduction in forecasting staff numbers has
been one of the principal methods by which the
Bureau has achieved the budget savings necessary
to deliver the efficiency dividend being applied
across the Australian Public Service. Some
agencies may have been able to meet the
requirements of the efficiency dividend by
eliminating low value outputs. This does not
appear to have been a feasible option for the
Bureau in the face of escalating demand for its
services across the board. Similarly, capital
investments in new systems have enabled the
Bureau to deliver greater quantity and quality of
output rather than delivering operating
efficiencies to reduce workforce requirements.
However international evidence suggests there are
some other avenues for achieving operating
efficiencies, for example through greater
automation and outsourcing of observations and
by limiting manual intervention in the preparation
of forecasts.
As a corollary of the decline in numbers over time,
the Bureau’s workforce has been aging. Graduate
entry has not kept pace with separation by
retirement and there has been limited midcareer
recruitment. The Bureau has for some time
acknowledged the risk of loss of skills and
experience through its deteriorating workforce
profile. As described in its Annual Report, the
Bureau is taking steps to address this through
boosting the graduate program and developing a
formal workforce strategy. However this remains
work in progress. The Review has highlighted that
it is essential that the Bureau accelerates the
development and implementation of a long term
workforce plan. Critically, this should include a
meaningful succession plan for all frontline
weather services positions, taking into account any
new positions that may be created if the options
presented in this Review are implemented.
Processes
The Bureau produces a high volume of products
day in, day out: in 2010-2011, as discussed above,
it issued over 30,000 warnings, as well as nearly
140,000 forecasts, while its website received 33
billion hits. Timeliness, continuity of service and
consistent quality all depend on efficient, reliable
and repeatable processes.
At its core, however, the Bureau is a scientific
organisation which has a culture of
experimentation to continually improve quality.
The preferred response to budget constraint is not
to cut outputs or restrict innovation, but rather to
find ways of “making do”. In the regional centres,
individual weather forecasters have a fair amount
of discretion about how they do their work and in
particular what value-added services they develop
for local customers such as state agencies. They
have an enthusiasm for the art of the possible and
a pride in their technical competence which leads
them to stretch the envelope rather than deny a
customer request.
Through workshops conducted in the course of
this Review to analyse the Bureau’s processes, it
became evident that the Bureau does not have the
process orientation that might be expected of a
service provider that operates at industrial scale.
This is not to say no processes are in place, but
they are not documented as such. As a
consequence, it is possible that the Bureau is
carrying an inappropriate level of risk with respect
to core management disciplines such as change
control and business continuity. Weaknesses in
these areas were also evident in this Review’s
assessment of the Bureau’s technology, discussed
below.
The consultants engaged to examine the Bureau’s
processes for this Review have made a set of
recommendations which would strengthen the
governance of the Bureau by taking an end-to-end
systems view of how it operates. As well as
reducing risk, it is also likely that a focus on
process would sharpen accountabilities, eliminate
unplanned duplication of effort and cast a light on
any unauthorised activities that could be ceased.
This might yield savings which could be redirected
to reinforce priority services. These
recommendations are referenced in the Review
options presented in Table 1 below.
Previous reviews also made a number of
recommendations regarding management
processes in the Bureau. These are in the process
of being implemented. To his credit, the current
Director has also seen the need to reinforce the
central corporate functions in the Bureau so that
its human, physical and financial resources are
managed more strategically with stronger
governance of key decisions and a view to
improving the control of risks such as occupational
health and safety.
All up, developing and implementing stronger
governance arrangements, whether for workforce
planning, capital investment or process change,
represents a significant call on the time and the
judgement of the Bureau’s senior executive team.
v
Executive Overview
The options for process improvement identified by
this Review are geared towards resilience in
service delivery in the subject areas of this Review.
To be effective, they will require some shifts in
culture that may not be immediately embraced by
all Bureau staff. This too will require committed
leadership from the senior executive team. By
extension, it would be prudent to limit the number
of new initiatives that are on foot at any one time.
The Bureau has an ambitious strategic plan which
anticipates both broader scope and greater
integration to achieve its overarching vision of
becoming the nation’s primary provider of
environmental intelligence. It may be necessary to
reframe this vision to focus on the sustainability of
its current suite of services in the short term,
before significant additional roles and
responsibilities are embraced. The government
may also wish to strengthen the Bureau’s mandate
with respect to the critical services that are the
subject of this Review and to require that these
are given first priority.
Technology
Frontline people provide the Bureau’s peak
services both in response to extreme weather
events and communicating seasonal forecasts. The
customers of these peak services rely on the
situational knowledge, judgment and
communication skills of these individuals to
interpret and deliver timely and relevant
information, perhaps by digital means, but often in
person. For this reason, delivery of the final
product is labour intensive and this represents a
key constraint on capacity as discussed above.
However this is only the end point of a process.
Behind this is a capital intensive supply chain from
gathering of observations through model runs (of
literally billions of pieces of data everyday) to
formatting of forecasts and other information
products. Technology is therefore also a constraint
on capacity.
The Bureau maintains an extensive range of assets
for manual and automated observation of
meteorological, hydrological, solar, oceanographic
and space weather parameters. These data, along
with feeds from external sources such as satellites,
are relayed through a dedicated communications
network to one of Australia’s most powerful
supercomputers which provides mass data storage
and the computing capacity to run both
operational and research software programs.
Specialist applications used by the forecasters
bring together real-time and historic data and the
output of a range of weather models. Other
vi
applications generate text and images to represent
the forecasts and warnings online or in other
formats.
Together, these technology assets are valued at
over $200 million. They have been amassed over
the life of the Bureau so that the value of some
assets which are still in service has long been
written down to zero. Others could not now be
replaced on a like-for-like basis based on current
funding levels. The Bureau considers that these
factors are driving a systematic underestimation of
the value of its asset base, currently valued at
approximately $500 million (including $402 million
for land, buildings, property, plant, equipment and
intangibles, and $90 million for inventories, cash
and receivables) and the true replacement cost.
Even without addressing these factors, a desktop
analysis of the Bureau’s asset base against its Asset
Investment and Replacement Program found some
$33 million of assets still in service beyond their
useful life and a cumulative deficit over five years
of around $54 million between budgeted asset
replacement expenditure and lifecycle
requirements.
In practice, the Bureau has been implementing a
number of strategies to extend the useful life of its
assets and manage the gap. These strategies
remain valid and there does not appear to be an
imminent crisis although business continuity risk
may be increasing.
Over time it may be preferable to close down
rather than replace failing assets, particularly in
the observation network where substitute data
sources may be available. On the other hand, in
order to access global observation data, the
Bureau does need to reciprocate by meeting its
own international obligations. Not replacing assets
might also lead to degradation in service which
would run counter to the needs highlighted in this
Review for accurate and localised information.
This pressure on asset lifecycle funding also
provides a backdrop against which any decisions to
extend the Bureau’s asset base must be
considered. For example, in the 2009-10 Federal
Budget the Bureau received $48 million over seven
years to, amongst other things, install four new
radars. There will continue to be demand to fill
other gaps in the radar network.
The bigger challenge, however, rests in the area of
information technology. The Bureau’s current
supercomputer has a five year life and is scheduled
to be upgraded in 2013-14. This will be the subject
of a bid for capital estimated by the Bureau to be
Executive Overview
in the order $38 million on a like-for-like basis,
including $14 million for data storage.
Notably, to lift its capability in terms of more
localised forecasts and technically more reliable
weather prediction, the Bureau would need to
upgrade its suite of models and operate them to
finer resolution. This would potentially have
significant economic benefit for users of seasonal
forecasting services as well as social and economic
benefit from better management of severe
weather risk.
However, any steps to improve resolution or
model complexity will require a step change in
supercomputing capacity. The Bureau has advised
that the limit of its current high performance
computer will be reached in 2012-13 when Version
2 of the Australian Community Climate and EarthSystem Simulator (ACCESS) Prediction System (APS
2) goes operational. This means that no
improvements will be possible during the final two
years of the current system’s five year lifetime and
any future improvements would require
investment beyond the like-for-like scenario.
The Bureau has identified a hierarchy of options
for boosting its supercomputing capacity in order
to meet some of the trends in demand that have
been identified in this Review as well as to
mitigate business continuity risks associated with
the current configuration. Any consideration of
these options, which could more than double the
cost relative to the base case, would need to be
subject to rigorous cost benefit analysis beyond
the scope of this Review.
In addition, there are considerable risks associated
with procurement of such a large piece of ICT
infrastructure. Every step from documenting
requirements onward is a highly specialised
activity and the highest standards of governance
are required to avoid costly errors. It will be
necessary for the Bureau to demonstrate that its
ICT planning and procurement processes are
sufficiently robust. Given the pace of change in ICT
services, some independent expert advice might
bring forward quite different and more cost
effective options for accessing the required
capacity.
Finally, the Review has identified a clear need for
the Bureau to continue to improve its controls
over distributed ICT initiatives including
application development. This has been a byproduct of the culture of experimentation and
local autonomy. However, the result has been a
proliferation of unsupported home-grown
applications, potentially inefficient use of both
hardware and software resources, and an inability
to estimate accurately the business process gains
from new investments. To manage these risks and
maximise operating efficiency, the Bureau will
need to move to a new level of maturity in its dayto-day ICT governance. This issue is recognised by
the Bureau’s Executive and steps are being taken
to rationalise applications and put in place better
ICT procedures.
Options
The assessments undertaken for this Review,
covering trends in demand for the subject services
and in capacity to supply these services, have
pointed to an emerging mismatch. This mismatch
between supply and demand creates a potential
risk to the Bureau and to the community it serves
as well as an opportunity for the development of
additional valued services. Strategies to mitigate
the risks and options for providing enhanced
services have both been identified alongside
options to offset the costs of new capacity through
savings, enhanced efficiency or increased revenue.
The full list of options is summarised in Table 1.
Some of these options can be implemented by the
Bureau on its own initiative, but many would
require authorisation or funding from the
Australian Government or complementary action
from state and local governments or other third
parties, as indicated in the table.
It would be neither desirable nor feasible to
implement all or even a large proportion of the
options in the short term. Specific consideration
should be given to the need for orderly change
management processes and the benefits of careful
sequencing of related actions.
In the view of the Review, priority should be given
to those options which strengthen internal
governance and boost frontline resources, ahead
of other potential investments which would also
require a high degree of executive oversight. These
actions could be implemented in parallel with a
government process to consider the long term
direction for flood management, if that is in
prospect. If the current flood management
arrangements are to continue, then at a minimum
some effort is required to clarify the respective
roles and responsibilities of each level of
government and to convey them clearly to the
community.
vii
Table 1 – Recommended Priority Actions and Additional Options
Action required from:
Recommended priority actions to mitigate risks requiring early attention
Priority Action 1: Boost the number of frontline meteorologists to build response capacity in regional
forecasting centres
Priority Action 2: Boost the Bureau’s flood warning capacity by:
(a) Increasing the number of frontline hydrologists
(b) Upgrading the flood monitoring system
Priority Action 3: Formalise and standardise service levels provided to emergency services
Recommended priority actions that involve strategic choices for government
Priority Action 4: Agree clear allocation of responsibilities to state and local government for flood
management, with defined boundaries on the Bureau’s role and:
(a) As a minimum:
(i)
Agree national standards for operation of flood monitoring networks and vest responsibility in
fewer agencies
(ii)
Clarify roles and responsibilities for issuing flash flood warnings
(b) And either:
(i) Focus the Bureau’s role on data management and divest responsibility for flood monitoring
infrastructure from the Bureau; or
(ii)
Expand and consolidate the Bureau’s role in flood management by:
(a)
Re-organising operations (including a new Flood Operations Centre)
(b)
Enhancing the Bureau’s flood monitoring network
(c)
Strengthening the collection and provision of flood data by third parties
(d)
Improving the information base for flood warnings, including access to flood risk maps
Priority Action 5: Focus the Bureau’s evolving environmental information role on natural hazards in the
first instance
Priority Action 6: Explore opportunities to re-phase investments in large scale projects and programs such
as the Strategic Radar Enhancement Program, the NexGen Forecast and Warning System Products and the
Improving Water Information Program
Recommended priority actions for the Bureau to support consistent service standards and build organisational resilience
Priority Action 7: Complete workforce planning project and succession plans as a matter of urgency
Priority Action 8: Firm up approval processes and funding for any departures from provision of the basic
product set
Priority Action 9: Ensure the Bureau puts in place necessary planning and governance arrangements to
develop its bid for capital funding to maintain its critical supercomputing capacity
Priority Action 10: Extend ICT governance arrangements to all applications and subject in-house
development to rigorous approval processes
Priority Action 11: Review disaster recovery and business continuity plans
Priority Action 12: Start a project to introduce organisational process thinking with a view to standardising
processes and product specifications
Priority Action 13: Focus leadership practices to re-orient culture away from customisation and
viii
Other Parties
State
Government
Australian
Government
Bureau
Recommended Priority Actions and Options
Executive Overview
experimentation and towards reliable, efficient and consistent documented processes
Options that could provide savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau
Option 14: Increased automation and outsourcing of observations
Option 15: Explore options to limit forecaster intervention in site-specific web forecasts
Option 16: Centralise media services and establish protocols for media activity
Option 17: Foster private sector service providers who can offer tailored services or broadcast high quality
presentation of general purpose weather information
Option 18: Review level of investment in research activities to free up budget and reduce pressure on
computing capacity
Option 19: Review and rebalance relative investment in long term climate modelling and medium-term
seasonal outlook
Option 20: Cease or reduce the Ionospheric Prediction Service or offer it as a commercial service
Option 21: Apply a consistent cost-recovery model to all services delivered to state/territory fire agencies
Option 22: Explore options to obtain revenue from advertising on the Bureau’s website
Option 23: Phase out seasonal prediction development and modelling and rely on products generated
elsewhere
Option 24: Fund delivery of improved seasonal forecasting services by:
(a) Identifying potential offsets from government beneficiaries of any additional investment in seasonal
forecasting services
(b) Undertaking market research to establish industry willingness to pay for enhanced seasonal
forecasting services
Option 25: Lower yield options identified by the Bureau
(a) Reduce staffing at remote observing stations
(b) Close the training facility at Broadmeadows, Victoria
(c) Consolidate forecasting functions for Northern Queensland
(d) Outsource the Bureau’s library
Options to provide enhanced services where there is proven demand
Option 26: Additional frontline meteorologists and specialised centres and systems
(a) Enhanced severe weather units
(b) National extreme weather centres
(c) Integrated all-hazards decision system
(d) Enhanced observation network
Option 27: Upgrade to the Bureau’s supercomputing capacity
(a) Status quo
(b) Step change
(c) Further enhancements
Option 28: Improved seasonal forecasting capabilities
(a) Improved presentation of existing products
(b) Enhanced capability – keeping pace with international standards
Option 29: Explore use of social media to enhance data gathering from authorised and informal sources
and to disseminate weather information
ix
Introduction
Review Context and Purpose
Increasing frequency, spatial extent and severity of
impact of extreme weather events have led to
great demand on the Bureau for information and
advice, including from state and local authorities,
communities and the media. Recent events have
shown how these demands can occur
simultaneously across multiple states and over
long periods.
These trends were highlighted during the 2010-11
summer, which saw unprecedented flood events in
Queensland and Victoria, tropical cyclones
(including tropical cyclone Yasi), and severe
bushfires in Western Australia. Climate change
modelling indicates that the incidence and severity
of some extreme weather events may increase in
the future.
On 18 July 2011, Senator the Honourable Don
Farrell, Parliamentary Secretary for Sustainability
and Urban Water, announced that the Australian
Government had commissioned an independent
review of the Bureau to assess its capacity to
respond to future extreme weather events and to
provide accurate and timely seasonal forecasting
services. The full terms of reference are attached
at Appendix A.
The Bureau
The Bureau is Australia’s national weather, climate
and water information agency responsible for
achieving the outcome of “Informed safety,
security, and economic decisions by government,
industry, and the community through the
provision of information, forecasts, services and
research relating to weather, climate and water.”1
Its expertise and services assist Australians in
dealing with the realities of their natural
environment, including drought, floods, fires,
storms, tsunami and tropical cyclones.2 Through
regular forecasts, warnings, monitoring and
advice, the Bureau provides one of the most
widely used services of government.
The Bureau operates under the authority of the
Meteorology Act 1955 (Cth) and the Water Act
2007 (Cth). It is an Executive Agency within the
Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population
and Communities portfolio. The Director of
Meteorology is a statutory officer appointed by
the Minister. The Bureau’s staff are engaged under
the Public Service Act 1999 (Cth).
The Bureau has obligations under three
international conventions as well as bi-lateral
treaties or memoranda of understanding with 13
organisations in 11 countries to which Australia is
a signatory. It is Australia’s National
Meteorological and Hydrological Service for the
purposes of the Convention of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and is
Australia’s designated Meteorological Authority
for the purposes of the Convention on
International Aviation. The Bureau also has
obligations under the International Convention for
Safety of Life at Sea and some responsibilities
under the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change. It also contributes to
Australia’s national Antarctic program and other
national responsibilities by conducting continuous
meteorological operations in Antarctica.
The Bureau receives government funding to cover
the bulk of its activities. These base funds are
supplemented by government equity injections,
and by revenue from independent sources for cost
recoverable and commercial services as well as
contributions to collaborative projects.
In addition to its Head Office in Melbourne, the
Bureau has seven regional offices which are
responsible for most of the operational and service
activities in the state or territory concerned. Each
regional office includes a Regional Forecasting
Centre and a Flood Warning Centre, and the Perth,
Darwin and Brisbane offices also operate Tropical
Cyclone Warning Centres when required. The
Darwin Office also serves as a Volcanic Ash
Advisory Centre for aviation and a WMO Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre. The National
Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC)
carries out operational and services functions
similar to those of a region but with a national
area of responsibility. The NMOC is also a WMO
Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for
environmental emergency response.
The Bureau maintains a network of field offices
and other installations across the Australian
continent, on neighbouring islands and in
Antarctica, including national networks of some
200 paid cooperative observers and approximately
6,500 voluntary rainfall observers.3 These sites
provide manual and automated observations of
meteorological, hydrological, solar, oceanographic
and space weather parameters.
Measurement devices include automatic weather
stations (AWS), weather radars, sea-level
monitoring stations, and tsunami detection buoys.
The Bureau also sources observations from
sensors mounted on weather balloons,
commercial aircraft and ships, and satellites. For
its flood forecasting and warning services, the
1
Introduction
Bureau’s own hydrological observation network is
complemented by data from more than 4,000
sites, collected by more than 240 water sector
organisations.
The Bureau’s telecommunications systems provide
an integrated network of landline, satellite and
radio systems for the flow of information between
its offices, other organisations and its customers.
The Bureau’s information and communication
technology system is connected to a larger
worldwide network to support collaboration with
overseas meteorological agencies under the
WMO’s global charter. Its computing and mass
data storage needs are supplied by one of
Australia’s most powerful supercomputers, located
in its Head Office in Melbourne.4




systems and reports from international
agencies and research organisations;
a process review project commissioned by the
Bureau to assess the delivery of the Bureau’s
services through its internal supply chain
(recommendations from this project are
attached at Appendix D);
analysis of the findings from previous
reviews of the Bureau and other relevant
recent reviews such as the Queensland Floods
Commission of Inquiry;
a peer review of the Review’s draft findings by
international meteorological experts (see
Appendix E); and
input from the Bureau’s staff and Executive,
including via formal proposals.
Approach taken by the Review
Structure of the report
The Review has addressed the Bureau’s capacity to
deliver services by looking from the outside in –
analysing customers, outputs, processes, inputs
and suppliers. It considered the trends and drivers
shaping the expectations of the Bureau’s
customers and assessed the robustness of the
Bureau’s systems and processes. This enabled both
capacity constraints and delivery risks to be
identified as well opportunities to improve
performance by mitigating these constraints and
risks over the medium term.
Chapter One of this report describes the Bureau’s
customers and the products and services they
receive and discusses the trends and drivers
shaping future demand.
Chapter Two considers the Bureau’s current
capacity and capability in relation to its current
product and service responsibilities.
This Review has been a forward looking exercise,
intended to provide a strategic assessment of the
Bureau’s capacity to deliver essential services over
the medium to long term. It was conducted in
consultation with a Steering Committee
comprising Australian Government
representatives.
Chapter Four outlines a range of options for
addressing these risks.
The Review drew on extensive evidence to develop
its findings, including:



2
face-to-face meetings with representatives
from the Australian Government, State
Government, Local Government, emergency
services, aviation, agricultural, media and
insurance sectors;
submissions from key stakeholders who were
invited to respond to a questionnaire relating
to the Bureau’s services and against the
Review’s terms of reference. Approximately
180 submissions were received from a wide
cross-section of organisations. The list of
those who made a submission is provided at
Appendix B and the questionnaire is at
Appendix C;
a wide range of information provided by the
Bureau, including internal documents, data
from the Bureau’s management information
Chapter Three examines the risks to the Bureau’s
service delivery arising from capacity constraints
and considers opportunities for improvement.
A summary of the proposed options is provided
after the Executive Overview (see Table 1). The
table also identifies where implementation would
require action by parties other than the Bureau.
1.1.1 Overview
Types of extreme events
Australia is exposed to many types of extreme
weather events including floods, fires, cyclones,
tsunami, severe thunderstorms, hail storms,
heatwaves and storm surges. Some other natural
and man-made disasters are also propagated by
weather, such as volcanic ash and radioactive and
chemical clouds. Extended periods of extremes of
climate, such as drought, can also have chronic
effects.
The impact of these events can run into hundreds
of lives lost, and long lasting disruption to
communities and businesses. One estimate put the
annual economic cost of extreme weather events
in the order of $1 billion.5
Permanent defences such as levee banks or
appropriate building standards can reduce these
consequences where the risk is understood. With
adequate warning, emergency action can also be
taken to reduce the impact of a specific event and
so the Bureau’s services are pivotal to an effective
response.
Products and services provided
During and in anticipation of extreme weather
events, the Bureau delivers a range of information
products in addition to its day-to-day services.
These products include regular updates and
assessments, localised forecasts (over periods
ranging from 6 to 48 hours), and immediate
information (‘nowcasting’), relating to the progress
of extreme events.
In 2010-11, the Bureau issued over 30,000
warnings, including 1800 severe weather
warnings) and nearly 140,000 forecasts. Diagram 2
shows the number of warnings and forecasts
issued in recent years.
There has been a significant
increase in the number of
forecasts and warnings issued
by the Bureau in the past ten
years.
140000
120000
Forecasts
Warnings
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Number of warnings issued
1.1 Extreme weather and flood
warning services
160000
Number of forecasts issued
Chapter 1 Customers, Services
and Trends in Demand
Year (FY)
Diagram 2 - Trend in number of warnings and forecasts
Customers
During extreme weather events, general public
interest in the Bureau’s services increases
dramatically, as illustrated by the doubling of visits
to the Bureau’s website during the 2011
Queensland floods.6
Visits to the Bureau’s website
doubled during the 2011
Queensland floods.
In addition to its public weather services, the
Bureau provides specialist services on a costrecovery and commercial basis to a number of
sectors including the aviation, defence, marine,
primary production and utility sectors. In
particular, the funding arrangements for services
to aviation and defence changed on
1 January 2010. These services are now fully costrecovered and are outside the scope of this report.
Agencies charged with the emergency response to
extreme weather events are particularly reliant on
the Bureau’s products,7 and their needs are a
major focus of this Review.
Delivery channels
Extreme weather information is delivered to the
general public through the Bureau’s website,
through media services including the Australian
Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) in its role as
emergency services broadcaster, and indirectly
through the third party communication channels
such as mobile phone alerts and emergency
services’ own websites.
Warnings are delivered by the Bureau to state and
territory agencies for consideration, interpretation
and dissemination within their jurisdictions. The
channels used and the arrangements followed
3
Chapter 1
differ between jurisdictions and for each type of
extreme weather event product or service.
450 million.9
The following sections provide a brief description
of the Bureau’s products and services for floods,
fires, cyclones, tsunami, severe thunderstorms and
heatwaves.
The Bureau prepares and disseminates severe
weather warnings, flood watches and flood
warnings both directly to the public via its website
and other media, as well as through state
emergency service agencies who provide
additional interpretation and manage the
response to events. The means by which the
Bureau communicates with state emergencies
services varies, depending on the location and
nature of the flood event, local arrangements for
emergency management and their relationship
with the Bureau’s regional office.
1.1.2 Floods
A flood is defined by the Bureau as the inundation
of normally dry land by water.
Products and services provided
The Bureau is responsible for “the issue of
warnings…including weather conditions likely to
give rise to floods.”8 In practice, the responsibility
for flood preparation, flood monitoring,
developing forecasts and warnings and the
dissemination of these warnings is shared between
all levels of government (see Diagram 3).
Responsibility for flood
preparation, flood monitoring,
developing forecasts and
warnings and the
dissemination of these
warnings is shared between
all levels of government.
A simple summary of the main flood products and
services provided by the Bureau is set out in
Table 2. These products are provided for 300
designated sites in 126 designated river basins
with identified flood risks. Outside these areas
more generalised services are provided based on
severe weather warnings (see Section 1.1.3).
Customers
Customers for flood warning services include the
agriculture and transport sectors, other industry
operating in flood-prone areas, state and local
governments, emergency services and the general
public – in particular those living in or traversing
flood-prone areas. The Insurance Council reported
that flood damage in an average year costs $400 to
Diagram 3 - Flood warning process
4
Delivery channels
During the 2011 Queensland
floods, the Bureau’s Brisbane
Regional Office experienced
an intense increase in its
workload.
The Bureau’s limited ‘surge
capacity’ during such events
is considered further in
Chapter 2.
For example, during the 2011 Queensland Floods,
the Bureau provided a range of forecasts and
warnings that were typically updated two to four
times a day. During the more significant individual
events, multiple warnings were updated up to
eight times a day via a number of channels such as
media interviews (radio, print and television), fax,
email, telephone, and the public and registered
user web pages. Additionally, specific information
was provided to emergency services and other
agencies via telephone briefings, conducted on
average twice per day. At times, up to three
Bureau staff were on site at the State Disaster
Coordination Centre to assist with the
interpretation of presented data.
Chapter 1
Table 2 - Flood products
Products
Purpose
Users
Delivery Channels
Flood Alert, Watch or
Advice
To warn of possible flooding (if flood
producing rain is expected to happen in
the near future).
General Public,
industry, local
government,
emergency services
Local response
organisations; Bureau
offices; website; radio;
telephone recorded
information services
Generalised Flood
Warning
To warn that flooding is occurring or is
expected to occur in a particular
region. (For catchments where no
specialised warning equipment has
been installed).
as above
as above
Warnings of 'Minor',
'Moderate' or 'Major'
flooding
Where the Bureau has installed
specialised warning systems the
warning will identify the river valley,
the locations expected to be flooded,
the likely severity of the flooding and
when it is likely to occur.
as above
as above
Predictions of expected
river height
To provide specific information to flood
management authorities.
Flood management
authorities
Bureau offices; website
Source of information
The Bureau’s flood warning services depend on a
combination of:
Examples of severe weather include land gales,
squalls, flash flooding and dangerous surf or tides.

Products and services provided

the outputs of its weather forecasting function
(precipitation); and
measurements from a network of real-time
rainfall gauges and river height gauges.
Most of these systems are owned and maintained
in shared arrangements between the Bureau, local
councils, catchment authorities and state and
territory agencies. The Bureau has a particular
focus on rainfall stations, with most of the river
level monitoring stations being the responsibility
of state, territory and local agencies.
1.1.3 Severe weather (including severe
thunderstorms)
The Bureau provides warning services for severe
thunderstorms and more generalised severe
weather.
A severe thunderstorm is defined by the Bureau as
one which produces one or more of the following:
hail with a diameter of 2 cm or more; wind gusts of
90km/h or greater; or flash floods.
Severe thunderstorms are localised events, usually
affecting smaller areas and fewer people than
tropical cyclones and floods, but nonetheless their
combined impact is significant. These storms,
which are more common than any other natural
hazard, can occur anywhere in Australia.
The Bureau issues a Severe Thunderstorm Warning
when a severe thunderstorm is detected and
expected to affect populated areas. These
warnings typically include information on expected
phenomena (large hail, dangerous winds etc), the
area of the threat, and time of issue (see Table 3).
Severe thunderstorm and severe weather
warnings are provided from the Bureau's regional
forecasting centres. Forecasters use computer
model predictions, together with data from
meteorological satellites, radar displays, lightning
detection networks, ground-based observations
and reports from the Australian network of some
3000 volunteer storm spotters to prepare the
warnings. Radar displays are particularly helpful to
thunderstorm forecasters as they show where and
how heavily rain is falling.
Customers
Customers for severe weather services are the
general public, as well as industry operating in
affected areas, the transport and emergency
services organisations. As an illustration of the
potential impact of severe weather events, the
Sydney Hailstorm which occurred on 14 April 1999
caused an estimated $2.3 billion of damage10 from
rain and hailstones measured to be up to 9cm in
diameter.11
Table 3 - Severe weather products
Products
Purpose
Users
Delivery Channels
Severe Thunderstorm
Warning
Warning for communities about
dangerous or damaging conditions
General public and
emergency services
Bureau website; telephone
weather; fax, electronic and
print media
Severe Weather Warning
as above
as above
as above
5
Chapter 1
Delivery channels
hours.
Warnings are immediately transmitted to radio
and television stations, to authorities such as the
police and emergency services, and through the
Bureau's public access systems which include
recorded telephone services, fax and internet.12
For major centres on the east coast, radar
observations, which display the pathway of major
storms, provide graphical warnings that are
available on the internet.
Source of information
In delivering severe weather services, forecasters
rely on a range of data sources. Model conditions
provide an early indication of the risk of severe
weather, weather balloons can provide
information on atmospheric instability which is a
precursor to thunderstorms, and satellites can
detect extreme convection before a thunderstorm
has formed. Probably the most important data
source is radar, which regularly and precisely
tracks the precipitation arising from
thunderstorms and can be used to determine the
track the storm is most likely to take (based on its
recent behaviour).
Damage during tropical cyclones can arise from
strong winds, torrential rain and storm surges (in
coastal areas).
Products and services provided
People living in cyclone-prone areas are generally
familiar with the categories used for classifying the
size and impacts of cyclones (see Table 4).
The tropical cyclone season in Australia runs from
1 November to 30 April.13 Each season, the Bureau
provides a tropical cyclone seasonal outlook
(issued at the beginning of the season) and a
tropical cyclone outlook (issued daily throughout
the tropical cyclone season). A summary of the
Bureau’s tropical cyclone products is set out in
Table 5.
1.1.4 Tropical cyclones
A tropical cyclone is a large low pressure weather
system which develops over warm waters. Air
flows within the system in a circular pattern. To be
defined as a tropical cyclone, the system must
have maximum average wind speed of 63
kilometres per hour or greater, and this maximum
average wind speed must occur in more than half
of the circular centre of the cyclone. The maximum
average wind speed must continue for at least six
Table 4 - Classification of tropical cyclones
Category
Strongest gust (km/h)
Typical effects
1
Less than 125km/h
Minimal household damage. Damage to some crops, trees and caravans.
Boats may drag moorings.
‘Gales’
2
125 - 164km/h
‘Destructive winds’
3
165 - 224km/h
‘Very destructive winds’
4
5
225- 279km/h
Some roof and structural damage. Some caravans destroyed. Power
failure likely.
‘Very destructive winds’
Significant roofing and structural damage. Many caravans destroyed and
blown away. Dangerous airborne debris. Widespread power failures.
More than 280km/h
Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction.
‘Extremely destructive winds’
6
Minor house damage. Significant damage to signs, trees and caravans.
Heavy damage to some crops. Risk of power failure. Small boats may
break moorings.
Chapter 1
Table 5 - Tropical cyclone products
Products
Purpose
Users
Delivery
Channels
Tropical cyclone
seasonal outlook
To provide information on the likelihood or
risk of cyclones forming in a particular
warning area.
Emergency organisations,
infrastructure managers,
businesses operating in the
area, and general users
Website; fax;
electronic
and print
media
Tropical cyclone
outlook
Advanced notice of possible cyclone activity.
as above
as above
Tropical cyclone
information bulletin
Provides information on existing cyclones
that do not pose a short term threat to
coastal communities.
as above
as above
Tropical cyclone
advice
(watch/warning)
To alert coastal communities to a potential
cyclone threat so that they can get ready to
implement disaster preparedness measures
if there is an increased threat of gale force
winds or stronger.
Emergency organisations,
infrastructure managers,
businesses, and coastal
communities
Website; fax;
telephone
weather;
electronic
and print
media
Tropical cyclone
forecast track map
Complements warnings and provides users
with a graphical presentation of the likely
threat zones of a cyclone.
as above
Website; fax
Tropical cyclone
technical bulletin and
summary
Detailed technical information on the
cyclone’s current status, and future
development. Designed to be both humanreadable and easily parsed by computer
software.
as above
as above
Storm tide advices for
emergency service
authorities
Details on expected storm tide levels
associated with cyclones.
Emergency services
Direct
Tropical cyclone
advisory for aviation
Advice to the aviation sector on the location
and intensity of cyclones.
Airlines
Direct
The Bureau can activate Tropical Cyclone warning
Centres (TCWCs) in three locations: Brisbane,
Darwin and Perth. Each centre is responsible for an
allocated geographical area and for any cyclones
making landfall within the respective regions (see
Diagram 4).
forecasting centre staff are brought in on overtime
to fill gaps in the roster.
Customers
Customers for tropical cyclone services include
coastal communities, federal, state and local
governments, emergency services organisations,
general aviation, business operators, the resource
sector, shipping and transport. In Western
Australia, specialised services are delivered to the
offshore oil and gas industry on a commercial
basis.
Tropical cyclone Yasi was estimated to have
caused $2 billion in losses from devastated
structures and crops, and an additional $1 billion
in lost tourism.14
Diagram 4 - Division of regions between Tropical
Cyclone Warning Centres
The TCWCs are virtual centres, staffed by severe
weather meteorologists; however, these specialist
staff numbers are insufficient to cover a full 24
hour roster. Therefore, other off-duty regional
Diagram 5 shows the actual path that tropical
cyclone Yasi followed.
Delivery channels
When tropical cyclones are detected, the Bureau
activates the responsible TCWC which serves as a
focal point for the monitoring of the cyclone, and
for providing information to emergency services
7
Chapter 1
and the community. The TCWC maintains regular
telephone contact with the relevant emergency
management authorities and disseminates
messages via email, fax and the Computer
Message Switching System to emergency services,
media outlets and clients paying cost-recovery
fees. The TCWC also handles any additional media
interest associated with the cyclone.
When the TCWC is in the warning phase (that is
the tropical cyclone is likely to cause gales on the
coast or at Island Communities within the next 24
hours) a 24 hour roster is activated.
Tropical cyclone information is provided to the
general public via the Bureau’s website, phone and
fax services, through the media and via state and
territory emergency management agencies.
Source of information
Different sources of information are used at
different times during a tropical cyclone’s
development.
Guidance from models may provide the first signs
that a tropical cyclone may be developing; this is
generally confirmed using satellite imagery, which
is the primary source of observational data on
tropical cyclones until they come within range of
one of the Bureau’s radars.
As the cyclone becomes more organised and
intensifies, modelling is used to predict its forward
track. A higher resolution tropical cyclone model,
nested within the regional model, is used to model
the cyclone’s development. Higher resolution is
important to capture the complex structure of a
cyclone, in particular smaller, lower intensity
cyclones that may not be well captured in a
coarser model.
The Bureau was able to
predict the trajectory of
cyclone Yasi several days
before it crossed the coast;
however, smaller, quicker
forming cyclones are still a
challenge to predict.
8
Diagram 5 - Severe tropical cyclone Yasi, 50 hours
before coastal crossing, showing the 48-hour forecast
(cone) issued at the time, and the actual path that the
cyclone followed
Meteorological radars are used for tracking once
the cyclone moves within range. Radar can provide
more precise information on the location of the
eye of the storm, and also gives an indication of
the level and extent of precipitation.
Automated Weather Stations (AWS) located on
land and offshore provide important information
on temperature, pressure and wind.
1.1.5 Tsunami
A tsunami is a series of waves travelling across the
ocean. These waves have extremely long
wavelengths, up to hundreds of kilometres
between wave crests in the deep ocean. As the
tsunami approaches land and the water shallows,
it slows down and at the same time grows higher.
Because of this effect, a tsunami that is
unnoticeable at sea may grow to be several metres
or more in height near the coast.
Tsunami can be caused by earthquakes,
underwater landslides, volcanic eruptions, land
slumping into the ocean, meteorite impacts, or
even the weather when the atmospheric pressure
changes very rapidly.15
Products and services provided
The Bureau, in collaboration with Geoscience
Australia, operates the Joint Australian Tsunami
Warning Centre. This is a 24 hour a day
independent tsunami warning service for Australia.
Geoscience Australia monitors the occurrence and
characteristics of undersea earthquakes with the
potential to generate a tsunami and, if such an
earthquake is detected, advises the Bureau. Based
on the earthquake’s strength and location, the
Bureau then selects the most appropriate example
from a large database of pre-computed tsunami
threat scenarios to ascertain the likely level,
location and time of arrival of a tsunami on coastal
Chapter 1
Australia. From this information, the Bureau
determines the threat level and issues the
appropriate product, outlined in Table 6.
The Joint Australian Tsunami
Warning Centre is operated in
collaboration with Geoscience
Australia, providing a 24 hour
a day service for Australia.
Source of information
Tsunami Watches are based on information
provided by Geoscience Australia which operates
an enhanced network of seismic stations nationally
and has access to data from international
monitoring networks. Based on this seismic
information the Bureau runs a tsunami model to
generate a first estimate of the tsunami size,
arrival time and potential impact locations and, if
required, issues a Tsunami Warning. The Bureau
verifies the existence of a tsunami using
information from an enhanced sea-level
monitoring network.17
1.1.6 Fires
Customers
Customers for tsunami warnings are primarily
emergency services organisations, coastal
communities and those living on islands, shipping
operators and recreational boaters. To date,
recorded incidents of tsunami affecting the
Australian coastline have resulted in dangerous
rips and currents rather than land inundation.
However, the tragic events in Japan in early 2011
and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 illustrate
the scale of catastrophe that could potentially
occur.
Delivery channels
Bulletins, Watches and Warnings are broadcast to
emergency services, relevant authorities and the
media via a number of channels. State emergency
services are informed via telephone and
automated messaging. Following the issue of a
Tsunami Watch, warnings will be issued if a
tsunami is detected and confirmed by the Bureau’s
network of deep ocean buoys and coastal sea-level
monitoring stations. If no tsunami is detected, the
potential threat advice will be cancelled to
minimise the impact of false alarms on the
community.16
Wind, temperature, humidity and rainfall all affect
the risk of bushfires and their behaviour. In
Australia there is a nationally agreed system to
assess these elements in conjunction with the
state of the available fuels to determine a measure
of potential fire behaviour, the difficulty of
suppressing a fire, and the potential impact on the
community should a bushfire occur on a given day.
Products and services provided
The Bureau issues Fire Weather Warnings when
conditions are likely to be dangerous. The warning
categories are based on an assessment of weather
conditions and fuel loads, with different criteria
used in different areas.
Warnings are generally issued within 24 hours of
the potential onset of hazardous conditions. In
most states and territories, fire agencies declare
fire bans based on a range of criteria including
forecasts provided by the Bureau.
The Bureau does not have the power to declare a
Total Fire Ban. This responsibility resides with
designated fire agencies in each state and
territory. However, in South Australia, Northern
Territory, Victoria, New South Wales and
Tasmania, the Bureau does issue Total Fire Ban
Table 6 - Tsunami products
Products
Purpose
Users
Delivery Channels
No Threat Bulletin
To advise that an undersea earthquake
has been detected, however it has not
generated a tsunami, or the tsunami
poses no threat
Coastal
communities;
emergency
services
Bureau website; telephone
weather; fax; marine radio
and satellite services;
electronic and print media
Tsunami Watch
While the tsunami has yet to be
confirmed, allows peoples to plan for
the potential impacts and be alert for
any subsequent Warnings.
as above
as above
Warning: Marine and
immediate foreshore
threat
Warning of potentially major flooding of
foreshores and nearby land, dangerous
rips, waves and strong ocean currents.
as above
as above
9
Chapter 1
Advices to assist in publicising and distributing the
message. The Bureau also incorporates Total Fire
Ban Advices into its warnings if a ban is being
enforced at the time of issue and includes an
action statement from local fire authorities
detailing areas where the ban is in effect.
The information contained in Fire Weather
Warnings includes:





the office which issued the warning;
the local time, day and date that it was issued;
a description of the relevant meteorological
conditions and Fire Danger Rating;
the area where weather conditions are
conducive to the spread of dangerous fires;
and
the time period for which the warning will be
in effect.
Table 7 provides a summary of the Bureau’s fire
products.
Customers
the Bureau.19
Fire Weather Warnings are distributed through the
media, fire agencies and other key emergency
service organisations. Warnings are normally
issued in the afternoon for the following day so as
to be available for evening television and radio
news broadcasts. Warnings are renewed at regular
intervals and generally at the same time major
forecasts are issued. However, warnings may be
issued or amended and reissued at any time if a
need is identified. If there is a current Fire
Weather Warning, the Bureau will mention it in
state, territory and district weather forecasts for
that area.
The Bureau also provides tailored services to fire
management agencies. These include weather
outlooks and spot forecasts for prescribed burns
and active wildfires. These services include direct
interaction between forecasters and fire
managers, and the provision of electronic data
such as model wind fields.
Customers for fire weather and warning services
are primarily the state fire and land management
agencies, and communities living in fire-prone
areas.
The Bureau’s embedded
meteorologists in Victoria and
NSW are provided on a costrecovery basis. Similar
arrangements are proposed
for Western Australia.
Bushfires are experienced every year in most
states. Since 1859, there have been 112 bushfires
classified as disasters causing 847 deaths and
damages of over $2 billion.18
Delivery channels
Warnings are broadcast on radio and television
and communicated directly to state emergency
services agencies. Fire authorities then declare a
Total Fire Ban based on a range of criteria
including the Forecast Fire Danger Index (FDI) from
In Victoria and New South Wales, the Bureau
provides embedded meteorologists as a costrecovered service (in the order of $250,000 $420,000 per annum). These meteorologists,
Table 7 - Fire Products
Products
Purpose
Users
Delivery Channels
Routine Fire Weather
Forecasts
Detailed information of the variables
associated with fire weather forecasting
for selected locations across the state for
each day.
Emergency services
Bureau website;
telephone weather;
fax; direct; electronic
and print media
Special Spot Fire
Forecasts
Enables the most efficient use of fire
fighting resources during ongoing fires or
prescribed burns.
as above
Fax; direct
Fire Weather Outlook
Assists fire authorities in their planning
and management of fires.
as above
Fax; direct
Wind Change Charts
Assists in the short term planning and
management of fires by providing details
of the timing, strength and positioning of
wind changes.
as above
Fax; direct
Fire Weather Warning
Warns of weather conditions conducive
to extreme fire behaviour to assist in the
planning and response to bushfire
outbreaks.
Emergency services and
land management
groups; general public
Bureau website;
telephone weather;
fax; electronic and
print media
10
Chapter 1
based in the Victorian State Control Centre and at
the Rural Fire Service Headquarters in New South
Wales, liaise directly with the fire and land
management agencies, providing expert advice
and assisting the decision-making process. Similar
arrangements are proposed for Western Australia.
territory health authorities.
The heatwave in the lead-up to
the Black Saturday bushfires of
2009 caused an estimated 374
deaths – more than the fires
themselves.
Source of information
In delivering fire weather services, forecasters rely
on a range of data sources similar to those used
for severe weather. Model conditions provide an
early indication of the fire danger, weather
balloons can provide information on atmospheric
instability and satellites can detect dry slots in the
atmosphere and cloud associated with frontal
wind changes. Radars and AWS provide up-to-theminute information on current conditions.
Bureau observers and emergency services staff can
also provide direct reports to fire weather
forecasters of conditions on the ground.
Heatwaves are probably the most under-rated
weather hazard in Australia, essentially because
they are viewed as a 'passive' hazard in contrast to
the more widely studied catastrophic hazards such
as tropical cyclones and earthquakes.21 In Victoria,
the heatwave in the lead-up to the Black Saturday
bushfires of February 2009 caused an estimated
374 deaths ̶ more than the fires themselves.22
Delivery channels
1.1.7 Heatwaves
There is no nationally agreed definition of a
heatwave. A working definition might be “a period
of one or more days where the heat pattern within
a region has the potential to see adverse health,
social and/or economic impacts on a particular
community”.20
Products and services provided
Heatwaves are also one of the simpler extreme
events for the Bureau to address. The Bureau does
not issue a heatwave product per se; however, the
general forecasts issued will contain information
about maximum and minimum temperatures that
may be interpreted by state health and emergency
management agencies (see Table 8).
Generally a state heatwave management plan is
triggered by state health services once the Bureau
makes a prediction that there will be a number of
consecutive days during which the average
maximum temperature is expected to be
particularly high.
Customers
Products are delivered as part of the Bureau’s
standard weather forecast service through the
news media, fax and telephone services, and the
Bureau website. There is no specific heatwave
product generated.
Source of information
The primary sources of information for heatwaves
are surface observations of temperature and
numerical model output which provides forecast
guidance.
1.1.8 Customer experience
Generally, there is a high level of satisfaction and
regard for the Bureau’s current level of service for
extreme weather events. More than 90% of
respondents to the survey conducted for this
Review indicated that the Bureau’s extreme
weather services met their needs in terms of
quality, timeliness, frequency, accessibility and
presentation (see Diagram 6). Approximately 85%
rated the accuracy of this information as very high
or high.23
The primary customers for heatwave information
are the general public, the media and state and
Table 8 - Heatwave products
Products
Purpose
Users
Delivery Channels
State Forecast
To provide broad information on the weather
conditions affecting the State for each day.
Media and
general
users
Print and online media;
television; radio; website;
telephone weather; fax
District Forecast
Information of weather conditions, rainfall, UV,
temperature and winds across the District for
the next 4 days.
as above
as above
Capital City and
Location Forecasts
Detailed information on the weather
conditions affecting the location for each day.
as above
as above
11
Chapter 1
There is a high level of
satisfaction with the Bureau’s
extreme weather services.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
All of
the
time
Most
of the
time
Some
of the
time
Rarely
Satisfaction of needs for
Diagram 6 - Levels of satisfaction with extreme
weather products and services
Similar observations were noted in the Bureau’s
summer 2010 Public User Survey. Approximately
96% of respondents were very or fairly satisfied
with Bureau information, while 83% rated
forecasts and warnings as always or usually
accurate.24
Meetings with emergency service agencies
revealed similar sentiments. The Fire and
Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia
stated that the Bureau is available and responsive:
“during emergencies the Bureau always delivers
within the agreed timeframes and is readily
available for briefings and roundtables.”25
Likewise, the ACT State Emergency Service
indicated that they were pleased with the service
provided by the Bureau’s Canberra office. They
stated the Bureau’s advice is critical to the
decisions they make regarding storms and floods,
and can trigger large-scale operations.26
Many Queensland customers of the Bureau
appreciated its recent efforts.27 The Queensland
Department of Premier and Cabinet stated that,
“the Queensland Government has found the
Bureau very responsive to its needs for
information about seasonal outlooks and extreme
weather events and relies on this information for
its preparedness, response, and recovery
activities.”28
Survey respondents indicated that the Bureau is
their principal source of weather information
during extreme weather events.
12
The other most referenced source was
Weatherzone, followed by Elders and emergency
service agencies. The Bureau is the primary data
source for the products of all three of these
providers. While 39% of stakeholders indicated
they use other sources of information for extreme
weather information, the majority did so because
they like to draw on more than one source of
information (57%), rather than because the
Bureau’s information was less accurate, timely or
accessible. Some stakeholders commented that
they used the Bureau exclusively to avoid being
confused by differing information. They relied on
the Bureau to be an authoritative source of the
weather information on which they based critical
decisions. In this vein, only four out of 23
emergency service agencies drew on sources other
than the Bureau for extreme weather
information.29
1.1.9 Customer expectations
While these findings reflect positively on the
Bureau and its capacity to provide extreme
weather event services, the Bureau’s customers
believe services could be improved. For example:




Website presentation: Users of the website
would like it to be simpler and more easily
navigated.30 One submission suggested a page
be devoted to each type of extreme weather
event, with events ordered by region to
enable speedy access.31
Protocols: Many respondents felt there would
be benefits in the development of more
formal, documented protocols for
communication arrangements in emergency
situations.32
Confidences in warnings: Customers stated
that it would be helpful if the Bureau
published its degree of confidence in the
reliability and accuracy of its warnings.33
Clearer warnings: Some customers suggested
that categorisation and terminology of
warnings needs standardisation. They
commented that ‘severe’ is used for a wide
range of situations, and that more precise
categorisation (including expansion of
categories with the addition of ‘extreme’ 34)
would be helpful.35
For flood events survey respondents expressed a
desire for:


improved predictions for flood height and
inundation levels; 36
more investment to maintain and upgrade
flood monitoring infrastructure;37
Chapter 1



more detailed, centrally located and freely
available flood modelling and flood mapping
data;38
improved accuracy for flash flood prediction;39
and
greater clarity regarding roles and
responsibilities for flood management across
jurisdictions.40
For fire events, customers have requirements for:



improved smoke plume modelling; 41
improved updating of pressure charts on poor
fire weather days;42 and
automation of spot forecasts.43
heatwave response systems, recommends the
establishment of a national framework for severe
and extreme heat events. It identifies the need to
build “...a common understanding of heat event
risks and their future management” and proposes
the Bureau “assume responsibility for developing a
heat event warning system and collaborate with
the states and territories in implementing this
system.”52
1.1.10 Future trends and drivers
This Review has found that customer demands
have increased substantially in recent years, and
are set to increase even further in the future due
to a number of factors.
For tsunami, customers want:


direct notification of significant warnings;44
and
improvement in tsunami warning advice
systems.45
For thunderstorms, customers wish to see:


improved prediction and classification of
thunderstorms;46 and
radar tracking of lightning strikes.47
And, for cyclones, survey respondents asked to see
real-time forecasting of storm surges.48
Other issues presented included:


a need for a simple and easy to understand
heatwave warning system;49 and
a desire for more sophisticated use of
communications technology (in particular
SMS) and social media to deliver information
about weather events.50
Recommendations from the Queensland Floods
Commission of Inquiry’s Interim Report also point
to greater demands on the Bureau, including:




more technical assistance, advice and
investigation in relation to dam operations,
river height monitoring, flood information,
science and technology;
closer working relationships with all councils;
expanded river height and rainfall networks
(including observers and gauges); and
broader dissemination of flood warnings to
individual councils together with more
localised information.51
The report Protecting human health and safety
during severe and extreme heat events: A national
framework argues that demographic shifts and the
changing climate are likely to increase the impacts
of heat events. This report, prepared by
PricewaterhouseCoopers Australia to provide
advice to government on the effectiveness of
Customer demand has
increased substantially in
recent years and will continue
to do so in the future due to a
number of factors including:
• improvements in technology
and the desire for immediate
access to reliable information;
• increased incidence and
severity of extreme weather
events due to development
and climate change;
• heightened state and local
government risk awareness;
and
• the advent of the 24 hour
news cycle.
Technology improvements
Improvements in technology have allowed for the
delivery of more outputs and services, increasing
their value to end users and their use for a range
of purposes. The Bureau is able to provide
information much faster with better resolution
and accuracy.
While technology has boosted the Bureau’s
capacity to provide information online, the surge
in digital media has also led to increased general
public expectations of what can be delivered.
13
Chapter 1
Increased incidence and severity of
impact of extreme events due to
development
There is a perception that the frequency and
impact of extreme weather events is increasing.
One cause is continuing development and
urbanisation in relatively high risk areas, such as
on floodplains. The increasing location of people
and insured assets in areas of Australia at risk of
extreme weather events is a major cause of rising
costs of insured losses.53 This is driving demand for
services to assist in planning and mitigation
activities as well as emergency response.54
Climate change
Of the survey respondents, almost 60% indicated
that climate change was a key driver that could
change their needs in the future. Climate change
modelling indicates that globally the incidence and
severity of extreme weather events can be
expected to continue to rise, as has been the trend
in recent decades.55 Climate change research
points to:







modest changes in average values of climatic
parameters (such as temperature and rainfall)
that can lead to “disproportionately large
changes in the frequency and intensity of
extreme events”56 such as cyclones, storms
and floods;57
increased high temperature extremes
together with a decrease in the number of low
temperature extremes, as seen over the last
decade;58
increased “risk of heatwaves and associated
deaths, as well as extreme bush fire weather
in South Eastern and South Western
Australia”59 and heavy rainfall events;60
likely changes in the seasonality and intensity
of large bushfires in southeast Australia (with
climate change a possible contributing
factor);61
sea-level rises of 20 cm by 2050, feasible at
current projections, which “would more than
double the risk of coastal flooding”;62
increased frequency and severity of coastal
inundation events due to the combined effect
of sea-level rise and more frequent and severe
storm surges63 and high sea-level event
occurrences;64 and
increased intensity of tropical cyclones.65
State and Local Government risk
awareness
Recent experiences of extreme weather events has
led state, territory and local governments to
become increasingly more risk aware, investing
14
heavily to improve their management of extreme
weather events.
Following the Queensland Floods Commission of
Inquiry, the Queensland Government announced
an additional $76 million over 5 years to improve
Queensland’s disaster response and flood
infrastructure management.66
As part of its response to the 2011 floods, the
Victorian government also announced that $40
million would be made available to fund “flood
recovery community infrastructure projects.”67
The Australian Government has also provided
support through a range of measures. Financial
support was provided through the joint Australian
and State government Natural Disaster Relief and
Recovery Arrangements to affected local councils.
Support was also made available to individuals
through the Australian Government Disaster
Recovery Payment and the Disaster Income
Recovery Subsidy (approximately $465 million and
$61 million respectively, as of 14 October 2011).68
In response to the Victorian bushfires in 2009, the
Australian and Victorian Governments jointly
released Rebuilding Together: A Statewide Plan for
Reconstruction and Recovery, which provided $193
million for rebuilding and recovery. This was aimed
at funding projects to replace major community
facilities and to support economic and
environmental recovery in affected communities. 69
Initiatives led by other
agencies can have unintended
consequences for the Bureau –
as their funding may not
account for the technical
support required from the
Bureau.
Such initiatives can have unintended
consequences for the Bureau. For example, under
the Natural Disaster Mitigation Program, the
Australian Government provided $100,000
towards the upgrade of the Wimmera Flood
Warning System.70 This included conversion of the
data collection network to radio telemetry,
installation and upgrade of stream and rain gauges
and radio repeaters, development of a flood
telephone alerting service, and a community flood
education and awareness campaign. However, this
funding did not account for the technical support
required from the Bureau, including the
Chapter 1
development of models for the new basins
captured under the program.
Similarly, the Victorian Government’s response to
the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission’s
recommendations resulted in further unfunded
work for the Bureau (see Box 1).
By way of comparison, in the United Kingdom, the
Trading Fund status of the MetOffice provides a
business model which assists in minimising growth
in unfunded work. Any change in service
specification requires a corresponding contract
adjustment, and associated price change if
necessary.71
Box 1 - 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission case study
The 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission,
which delivered its recommendations in July
2010, had a significant impact on bushfire
response and management in Victoria.
Importantly, the recommendations were seen to
set a national benchmark and, as a result, the
key recommendations were adopted by all state
and territory governments and fire agencies.
A number of these responses resulted in
additional work for the Bureau both through
increased demand and enhanced products,
requiring modifications to ICT systems, changes
to work practices and heightened management
attention.
The addition of a catastrophic fire danger rating
(later termed Code Red in Victoria) required
changes to ICT systems, products and work
practices; additionally, climatologies needed to
be developed to provide an understanding of the
past frequency of such events and to project
forward the likely number of Code Red or
Catastrophic days. Changes to work practices
required additional training for frontline staff
and the rewriting of standard operating
procedures.
In those regions operating the Graphical
Forecast Editor (GFE) significant re-engineering
work was required to alter the generation of
warning products. This had an impact in each
region, but also on the overall GFE project
timelines, delaying a number of project
milestones.
The dependence of external decisions, such as
school closures, on fire danger ratings, has put
the Bureau under pressure to increase the lead
time for declaration of catastrophic days. To
manage expectations, both from fire agencies
and the broader community, close management
attention has been directed to these decisions.
The recommendation for a rolling program of
prescribed burning of 5% of public land per year
has the potential to dramatically increase
demand for spot fire forecasts from the Bureau,
as the states and territories ramp up their own
burning programs in line with this target.
The business model used by
the United Kingdom’s
MetOffice ensures that any
change in service
specification requires a
corresponding contract
adjustment, and associated
price change if necessary.
Media and Communications
The Bureau’s regional office staff reported
increasing demands from the media during
extreme weather events including a desire for
more localised, region-specific information.
The increase in demand from the Australian
Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) in recent years is
due to the increase in the frequency and impact of
extreme weather events, the Corporation’s
increasingly recognised role as the preeminent
broadcaster of public information during such
events and audiences’ increased desire for rolling
news coverage of such events.72 Other news
providers also provide continuous coverage during
emergency events.
The ABC contends that continuous news services
enable agencies like the Bureau to deliver a variety
of messages to a broader number of people, more
efficiently and effectively.73 The increase in
demand for the ABC’s emergency broadcasting
services and the Bureau’s services in these times
also reinforces the value placed by the community
on information from the Bureau during extreme
weather events.
However, the Bureau can only dedicate more time
to servicing the media, particularly television
interviews, by diverting resources from other
functions. Bureau staff noted these pressures were
acute during the 2011 Queensland Floods,
explaining that while they did reject some media
requests (for example those of international
broadcasters), they felt a sense of obligation to do
15
Chapter 1
as much broadcasting as possible to maximise
access to potentially lifesaving information. 74
(ENSO) “wrap-up” (see description in Table 9).
The Bureau’s regional staff also reported that in
recent years, requests for direct communication
with political leaders at all levels of government
through both face-to-face meetings and briefings
have increased. For example, during the 2011
Queensland Floods, the Bureau provided regular
briefings to the Queensland Premier and Ministers,
as well as state department officials.75
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are available for 13
sites and eight major storages in the south-east
Murray-Darling Basin. More forecasts are planned
for other rivers and catchments in the next two
years. These forecasts help users to make more
informed decisions such as: water allocation,
cropping strategies, water market planning,
environmental watering, operating a diversified
water supply scheme, restricting water supply and
managing drought. Forecasts are issued monthly
for total flow spanning that month and the
following two months.
1.2 Seasonal forecasting services
1.2.1 Overview
The Bureau’s Climate and Water Division provides
seasonal forecasting services include seasonal and
intra-seasonal outlooks for temperature and
rainfall, generally three months or more ahead.
They are used by a range of customers across
many sectors.
1.2.2 Products and services provided
Seasonal rainfall and temperature
outlooks
The national seasonal outlooks are presented as
maps showing the chances of exceeding the long
term median over the three month outlook period
for rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum
temperature. The accompanying explanatory text
includes commentary on outlook confidence,
which is related to how consistently the Pacific and
Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall and
temperatures. An expanded set of seasonal rainfall
outlook maps and tables is provided on the “Water
and the Land” part of the Bureau’s website,
funded with the support of a consortium of
primary industry research and development
corporations.
The Bureau also produces complementary
products such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation
Seasonal streamflow forecasts
1.2.3 Customers
Traditionally, the agricultural sector has been seen
as the primary audience for these services, for the
purposes of making decisions about annual
production strategies. Seasonal forecasts are also
prepared for the emergency management sector
to plan for cyclones, flood and fire seasons,76 and
to inform agencies at all levels of government.
The agricultural sector has
traditionally been the primary
audience, however others,
such as the emergency
management sector, now use
seasonal forecasts to plan for
cyclone, flood and fire
seasons.
Other sectors, including water management,
health, energy, tourism, financial services77 and
insurance are increasingly using these services to
make planning decisions.78 The predictions of sea
Table 9 - Seasonal forecast products
Products
Purpose
Users
Delivery Channels
Seasonal Rainfall
Outlook
General statements about the probability
or risk of wetter or drier than average
weather over a three-month period.
General public;
government agencies
and industry
Website, television,
radio, email,
telephone
Seasonal temperature
Outlook
General statements about the probability
or risk of warmer or cooler than average
weather over a three month period.
as above
as above
ENSO Wrap-up
Provides guidance on the future state of
the El Niño Southern Oscillation which is
a key driver for Australia’s climate.
as above
as above
POAMA-2 Experimental
Products
Additional guidance on temperature and
rainfall outlooks.
Expert users
as above
Seasonal Streamflow
Forecasts
Provides three month probabilities for
streamflows in selected catchments in
the south-east Murray-Darling Basin.
Water managers and
key water users
as above
16
Chapter 1
surface temperature derived from seasonal
forecasting models are also used by the Great
Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority to manage
coral bleaching risks to the Great Barrier Reef.
1.2.4 Delivery channels
Seasonal forecasting services are provided to
customers predominantly via the Bureau’s website
but also via television, radio, email and telephone.
Seasonal outlook briefings are conducted in the
states and territories with a particular focus on
tropical cyclones, fire and flood. For example, in
Queensland a series of pre-season briefings are
offered each year (in 2011 these included 13
seminars throughout the state) to assist in
preparation for the coming storm, cyclone and
flood season.79 Monthly briefings are also
conducted in Canberra for Australian Government
agencies. On average, from January to
November 2011, more than 20 media interviews
were conducted each month on the Seasonal
Climate Outlook.
1.2.5 Source of information
Seasonal predictions are primarily the output of
models. All models require a solid observational
record, both to set up the initial conditions and
also to verify past model performance.
Most operational forecast products are based on
statistical forecast methods that have been used
for more than two decades. Statistical forecasts
are based on historical relationships between
climate indicators, such as sea surface
temperature and surface pressure, and seasonal
variations in temperature and rainfall. Currently,
these models produce an outlook for temperature
and rainfall for a three month period at a
resolution of approximately 100 x 100km.
The existing operational statistical seasonal
forecasts for Australia appear to have reached
their peak level of performance and as the climate
changes may even be declining in skill (a measure
of the closeness of forecasts to actual events when
reviewed with hindsight).80 Recent initiatives are
focused therefore on developing next-generation
dynamic seasonal prediction models that can take
account of changing climate conditions and the
complex interaction of the atmosphere, land
surface and ocean.
Since the late 1990s, the Bureau and CSIRO have
been developing an experimental dynamical
seasonal prediction model named the Predictive
Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA).
The Bureau intends to replace the current
statistical method of prediction for rainfall and
temperature with the POAMA system in the
future.
The latest version, POAMA-2, will not replace the
current statistical method until mid-2012 at the
earliest due to current ICT resource constraints, as
the required staff are currently working on the
Bureau’s migration to a new operating system.
When these staff become available, the Bureau
expects to undertake the research and
development required to ensure the POAMA-2
system will be as reliable in operation as the
current statistical approach. When implemented,
POAMA-2 will provide some improvement to the
accuracy of seasonal forecasts, but will not
account for the impacts of climate change or be
competitive with the leading models
internationally. Currently, the Bureau uses
POAMA-2’s experimental forecasts to provide
additional guidance to its seasonal forecasters and
registered users.
POAMA-2 runs on the Bureau’s current
operational supercomputer and is based on the
Bureau's Unified Atmospheric Model, a legacy
system that was originally developed in-house by
the Bureau. The Bureau has reported that it will
eventually transition the POAMA system from the
Unified Atmospheric Model to the Australian
Community Climate and Earth System Simulator
(ACCESS) model (see Box 2). The primary benefits
of this transition are that the ACCESS model offers
a significant improvement in terms of model
sophistication, providing more accurate modelling
of physical processes, allowing a greater number
of observations to be used and accounting for
changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Also,
because the ACCESS model is already used to
support weather forecasting in the Bureau and is
widely used internationally, maintenance and
management costs will be reduced through
internal synergies and through taking advantage of
a broader base of external knowledge and
expertise. The Bureau has advised that this
transition will require further research and
development to enable the POAMA system to run
the ACCESS model. The transition is expected to
occur in the years following POAMA’s replacement
of the Bureau’s current statistical seasonal climate
outlook model. Before it is transitioned to the
ACCESS model, POAMA will continue to be based
on the Bureau’s Unified Atmospheric Model.
Based on current resource levels, the Bureau
would only be able to make incremental
improvements to the quality of its seasonal
forecast products and services. The Bureau has
advised that by 2020, the quality of these products
17
Chapter 1
and services would be much inferior to those of
other international meteorological agencies.
Box 2 - The Australian Community Climate and Earth
System Simulator
The development of the Australian
Community Climate and Earth System
Simulator (ACCESS) is a joint initiative of
the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO
in cooperation with the university
community in Australia. ACCESS is a
coupled climate and earth system
simulator model which aims to provide the
weather prediction capability to underpin
the Bureau’s entire suite of meteorological
services.
In general, ACCESS is a major improvement
on previous models as it has a
sophisticated data assimilation scheme
which allows a greater number of
observations to be used; its model physics
allows for greenhouse gases and other
atmospheric constituents to be taken into
account; it can also be used across a range
of spatial and temporal scales, allowing
the one model to be used for a range of
applications from extreme weather right
through to climate studies. Additionally,
the model is used in a number of centres
internationally and is well documented and
supported.
ACCESS replaced the Bureau’s previous
suite of regional and global models on
17 August 2010 for short term weather
prediction (including extreme weather). In
the coming years, ACCESS will also replace
the Bureau’s current Unified Atmospheric
Model to deliver seasonal forecasting for
rainfall and temperature under the
POAMA system.
Further research and development to the
ACCESS model will also allow CSIRO and
university scientists to take a holistic view
of the entire climate system — including
elements such as the ocean, carbon cycle,
sea-ice, and cloud chemistry. It will also
enable Australia to contribute appropriate
climate projections and scenarios to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
The Bureau’s seasonal streamflow forecasts are
based on probabilities of water flowing into a
stream or catchment based on relationships with
recent climate and catchment conditions. They
have been developed using scientific research
conducted in partnership with CSIRO.
1.2.6 Customer experience
The Bureau’s seasonal forecasting services are
highly valued by its customers. Of those
stakeholders surveyed, 82% indicated a very high
or high value for these services.81 This has been
further supported through stakeholder comments,
for example:
“The most valued product from the Bureau is its
seasonal forecast. It helps us plan for the coming
season, and if necessary, bring in additional
resources to handle increases in demand for our
services.”82
The Review found satisfaction with these services
varies between sectors. In particular, respondents
from the agriculture sector were less satisfied (see
Diagram 7) than respondents for the emergency
services sector (see Diagram 8) with respect to
quality and timeliness of seasonal forecasts.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
All of
the
time
Most
of the
time
Some
of the
time
Rarely
Satisfaction of needs for
Diagram 7 - Levels of satisfaction with seasonal
forecasts (agricultural sector)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
All of
the
time
Most
of the
time
Some
of the
time
Rarely
Satisfaction of needs for
Diagram 8 - Levels of satisfaction with seasonal
forecasts (emergency services sector)
18
Chapter 1
60% of survey respondents from the agricultural
sector draw on other providers for seasonal
forecasting services. The willingness to seek out
climate information from wherever it is available
was also highlighted in stakeholder meetings. 83
The most common alternative source of
information was Elders (who source their
information from Weatherzone). The House of
Representatives Standing Committee on Industry,
Science and Innovation’s report, Seasonal
forecasting in Australia,84 also discussed the use of
Japanese forecasts by Victorian farmers.
Developed under the leadership of Professor
Toshio Yamagata, these forecasts are based on the
view that “...there is a stronger influence of the
equatorial Indian Ocean on rainfall over southern
Australia.”85 By contrast, Professor Neville Nicholls,
who previously worked for the Bureau, has stated
that “...there is still a much stronger influence
coming from the equatorial Pacific.”86
1.2.7 Customer expectations
Many suggested improvements to the Bureau’s
seasonal forecasting services were similar to
suggestions for improvements to extreme weather
services. The suggestions included:



more tailored, accessible and user-friendly
information on the Bureau’s website;87
more accuracy, specificity and resolution of
information;88 and
improved levels of consultation, for example
“a more formal feedback mechanism with
users to fine tune the service.”89
The Bureau recently commissioned market
research to determine user needs and their
understanding of the current Seasonal Climate
Outlook product and to test alternative
presentation options.90 The results showed that
the information was not well understood and that
some users were not confident in interpreting
probabilistic information. A series of simpler and
more intuitive design options were developed
then tested with stakeholders. The Bureau advises
that it is planning to introduce a new Seasonal
Outlook product, based on this research, in 201213.
1.2.8 Future trends and drivers
The accuracy of the Bureau’s seasonal outlook in
the lead-up to the 2010-11 La Niña event and
resultant floods has seen a substantial increase in
interest in the Bureau’s seasonal forecasting
services. This interest is likely to continue into the
future.
Preparedness for extreme events
A main driver will be the desire for more accurate
seasonal outlooks to assist in increasingly
sophisticated decision-making for emergency
management preparedness. This was highlighted
by the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry
which identified seasonal forecasts as a critical
input to managing the Wivenhoe Dam.91
Climate change
Climate change is likely to be another driver of
future demand for seasonal forecasting services as
assumptions about climate and weather based on
the historic record become less reliable.
More sophisticated business decisionmaking
As agricultural customers develop more
sophisticated agronomic techniques, they
recognise the potential for more accurate seasonal
outlooks to be used to underpin critical decisions
(such as crop variety selection, timing of planting
and harvesting and the rate of fertiliser
application).92
More sophisticated seasonal
outlooks could benefit the
agricultural sector by
underpinning critical
decisions (such as crop
variety selection, timing of
planting and harvesting, and
the rate of fertiliser
application).
Similarly, as utilities introduce more sophisticated
risk management techniques, they incorporate
seasonal outlooks in their planning of
infrastructure maintenance and planning for
product demand. For example:
“For our industry (electricity generation) the focus
is on an outlook that would give us an idea of how
many days the maximum temperature would
exceed, say, 30 degrees in summer or where the
maximum temperature would fall below 18
degrees (for major capital cities).”93
Developments in modelling
Some customers are also aware of the opportunity
for improvements in seasonal outlooks through
the use of dynamic models94 (to enable longer
term and more accurate prediction) and higher
19
Chapter 1
resolution grids95 (to provide more localised
forecasts). Their perception of the potential
economic benefits from such improvements is
another driver of demand.
1.3 General weather forecasting
1.3.1 Overview
Although day-to-day weather services are outside
the terms of reference for this Review, a discussion
of these services is included for completeness, as
they largely are based on the same data sets and
systems that provide the foundation for the
delivery of extreme weather event services.
The Bureau’s general weather services include
forecasts from one to seven days of maximum and
minimum temperatures, precipitation and wind.
They also include general warnings (other than
those for severe weather) such as Road Weather
Alerts, Bushwalking Advices and Wind Warnings
for land areas and enclosed waters. Specific
services for marine and alpine areas are also
included in this category.
The Bureau’s general weather
forecasting services are
viewed by Australians every
day, either directly on the
Bureau’s website or indirectly
via the news media.
The Bureau’s general weather forecasting services
are viewed by Australians every day, either directly
on the Bureau’s website or indirectly via the news
media.
Growth in usage of Bureau products is likely to
continue as the Bureau continues to expand its
general weather forecasting capability and
capacity. Increasing confidence in the reliability of
Bureau forecasts (evidenced by rising skill levels
over time), reinforced by ease of access, is leading
customers to rely more upon weather information
as an input to their daily decision-making. The
corollary to this is rising expectations of quality of
presentation – in keeping with general trends of
increasingly sophisticated use of digital media for
social and business interactions.
In 2008-09, the Australian Government made a
strategic decision to fund a step change in its
general weather forecasting and communication
capability by investing in an expanded radar
20
network and in the Next Generation Forecasting
and Warning System (NexGen FWS) (see Box 3).
Box 3 - Next Generation Forecast and Warning System
The Bureau is upgrading its weather
forecasting services across the country as
part of its roll-out of the Next Generation
Forecast and Warning System (NexGen
FWS). It will deliver seven day forecasts
across all of Australia, something that
could only previously be done by the
Bureau for major metropolitan cities. It
enables users to find, display and zoom
into weather details for their area down to
the 6km grid scale by point and click.
Forecasters are able to interact with the
weather grids using specially designed grid
editing tools. Information stored in the
weather grids is also used in the creation
of text warnings and forecasts provided to
the public using automated text
generation software. These can be edited
by Bureau forecasters if required.
In practice, forecasters need to quality
control all warning products and in the
process edit the majority to ensure clarity
of message and inclusion of the most
recent information about the event (for
example, storm surge effects,
thunderstorm lines and impact information
not available from the automated system).
In addition, editing of forecasts (rather
than warnings) is determined by the
complexity of the weather situation at the
time. In relatively stable conditions, there
would be minimal editing required; but for
systems like east coast low pressure
events, the majority of the forecasts for
major population centres would be edited,
especially in the 1-4 day period. Overall the
monitoring statistics show that about 10
to 15% of text products are altered by
forecasters (see Chapter 4 for an option to
limit forecaster intervention in site specific
web forecasts).
The NexGen FWS was first implemented in
Victoria, where it provided new services to
an additional 80 locations. It has since
been implemented in New South Wales,
South Australia, Tasmania and the
Australian Capital Territory, with Western
Australia, Queensland and the Northern
Territory to follow by 2014.
Chapter 1
limited to the major cities.
The Next Generation Forecast
and Warning System will
deliver seven day forecasts
across Australia – something
that could previously only be
done for major cities.
1.3.2 Products and services provided
The Bureau uses observations of meteorological
parameters assimilated into a numerical weather
prediction model to generate analyses of the
current state and forecasts out to seven days.
These forecasts are interpreted and further
analysed by forecasters who then generate the
final forecast product, presented largely in text.
The Bureau also uses complementary model and
observational output from overseas
meteorological services and from meteorological
satellites. In some instances, warnings can be
issued when the forecast exceeds a codified
threshold such as for gale warnings, however, for
many situations the subjective judgement of the
forecaster is required in issuing the warning.
As the NexGen FWS is rolled out to all states and
territories, all Australians will have access to seven
day forecasts. These services were previously
Over the past decade, the number of forecasts
issued by the Bureau has increased by 18%, while
the number of warnings rose by 45%, from 16,817
warnings in 2001-02 to 30,613 warnings in 201011.96 Over the same period visits to the website
have risen exponentially to a peak of five billion
hits in the month of January 2011 alone (see
Diagram 9).
General weather forecasting services are
predominantly delivered by the Bureau to
customers through the internet and news media
(see Table 10). Key services delivered through
these arrangements include:


seven day forecasts of temperature,
precipitation and wind; and
alerts for the agriculture industry for
conditions such as frost.
Real-time observations from weather radars, AWS
and satellites are also accessible through the
Bureau’s website and other media (“nowcasting”)
and have become extremely popular products.
1.3.3 Customer experience
The Bureau’s general weather forecasting services
are highly valued by its customers. These services
are useful for a broad range of day-to-day
decisions by government, the private sector and
the general public. Approximately 90% of survey
respondents indicated very high or high
Diagram 9 - Bureau of Meteorology website hits per month from January 2000 to June 2011
21
Chapter 1
Table 10 - General weather products
Products
Purpose
Users
Capital City and Location
Forecasts
Detailed information on the weather
conditions affecting the location for each
day.
Website; fax; telephone
weather; print and online
media; radio; television
District Forecast
Information of weather conditions, rainfall,
temperature, UV radiation levels and winds
across the District for the next 4 days.
as above
State Forecast
Broad information on the weather
conditions affecting the State for each day.
Warning services for
general public purposes
Warning services for weather that may
affect daily and recreational activities
(Road Weather Alerts, Bushwalking Advices
and Wind Warnings for land areas).
Forecast and warning
services for agriculture
Warnings of conditions affecting
agricultural activities: barley growers in SA;
sheep grazier alerts; frost risk forecasts and
warnings; downy mildew forecasts and
brown rot warnings.
Agriculture
industry
Website; fax; telephone
weather; print and online
media; radio; television
Marine Forecast Services
Narrative statements of expected weather
including wind, sea and swell, visibility and
significant weather for: coastal waters,
Bass Strait and approaches, local waters
and high seas.
Small craft
operators,
shipping
Website; telephone
weather; fax; marine radio
and satellite services
Radar observations
To provide real-time information on rainfall
and, for some capitals, wind direction and
speed for areas with radar coverage.
General users
Website
Satellite observations
To provide real-time information on cloud
cover over Australia and the surrounding
region.
General users
As above
Real-time weather
observations
To provide real-time information on
temperature, wind, humidity and rainfall
from automated observing systems.
General users
As above
value for these services. Similarly, more than 90%
of survey respondents indicated that the Bureau’s
general weather forecasting information met their
needs in terms of quality, timeliness, frequency,
accessibility and presentation most or all of the
time. These findings are consistent with results
from surveys conducted by the Bureau from 2010
to 2011 (see Diagram 10).97
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
All of
the
time
Most
of the
time
Some
of the
time
Rarely
Satisfaction of needs for
Diagram 10 - Levels of satisfaction with general
weather products
22
Media and
general users.
Delivery Channels
Website, fax, television
telephone weather, print
and online media; radio
as above
Despite high levels of customer satisfaction, more
than half of those surveyed indicated that they
draw on other sources. The most popular sources
were Elders and Weatherzone. The top two
reasons for doing so were because they like to
draw on more than one source of information
(32%) and more tailored services (24%). Fewer
than 10% did so because they thought the
Bureau’s information was less accurate or timely.
The most frequently used private providers use
Bureau data to generate more user-friendly or
tailored products. For example, Weatherzone and
Elders provide tailored services for the agriculture
sector and Weatherzone produces high quality
formatted outputs for media outlets.
1.3.4 Customer expectations
Many survey respondents commented positively
on the introduction of additional radars across
Australia – they appreciate being able to watch an
approaching storm and make informed decisions –
although some were concerned that there were
still gaps in radar coverage.98 The roll-out of the
Chapter 1
NexGen FWS is also a positive, with customers in
states and territories yet to receive the new
service expressing a desire for more localised
forecasts.99
The Bureau’s radar views are
amongst the most heavily
visited pages on the Bureau’s
website – people appreciate
being able to watch an
approaching storm.
Many suggestions for improvements to the
Bureau’s delivery of general weather services were
similar to those for other services. The suggestions
include:









more tailored, accessible and user-friendly
information on the Bureau’s website;
more accuracy and precision of information;
improved specificity and relevance of
information to particular locations and
regions;
increased service equity across regional areas
in comparison to capital cities. For example,
“Capital city temperature forecast accuracy is
high, while Snowy Mountains forecasts are
low”;100
improvements to existing technology and
programs (for example, improvement to
ACCESS to enable high quality synoptic
forecasts over South Eastern Australia out to
14 days101);
more support for growth areas, particularly in
the resource intensive states;
better use of third party information;
improved levels of consultation and feedback
mechanisms; and
improved use of social media.
Website presentation
Accessibility of information on the Bureau’s
website was a recurring theme in stakeholder
responses to the questionnaire. While much
information of great value is available,
respondents commented that it is often difficult to
locate.102
Many stakeholders suggested
improvements to the
presentation of information on
the Bureau’s website to make
it easier to navigate and
interpret.
Comments included: “keep website simple to
understand, with plenty of maps, diagrams, maybe
include a brief text summary”,103 “more userfriendly formatting/summarising of data”,104 and
“A more intuitive website. I realise there is a huge
amount of information that is available; but I
believe that it can be better organised.” 105
The Bureau’s recently completed a project to
enhance presentation of its Seasonal Climate
Outlook product took its lead from extensive user
input. This is the first time the Bureau has used
market research methodology in such depth to
understand how to present information in a way
that users can navigate easily and interpret
correctly. It would be desirable for the
specifications for any future website
developments to be derived from a similar
exploration of user preferences.
1.3.5 Future trends and drivers
The Review has identified a range of factors that
will continue to drive customer demands for
general weather forecasting services including
climate change, population growth and increasing
expectations of what is possible, particularly in
terms of forecasting skill, and customisation of
digital media. Any response to these drivers will
also build capability that is relevant to the handling
of extreme weather events.
1.4 Other services
1.4.1 Overview
In addition to the services described above, and
largely beyond the scope of this Review, the
Bureau also delivers a range of other services,
many of which have been added only recently.
They include:


Climate Services – maintaining and publishing
the climate record; monitoring of climate
variability and change;
Water Information – collecting and publishing
water information; conducting assessments of
national water resources; publishing an
annual national water account;
23
Chapter 1



Space weather warnings and advice – radio
propagation, geophysical and space weather
services to Australian and overseas agencies;
Ocean and marine – wind, wave, tides and
sea-level monitoring, sea temperature and
current predictions and warnings, and
national tide predictions and related
information; and
Environmental information – implementation
of the National Plan for Environmental
Information.
A full list of functions performed by the Bureau is
provided at Appendix F.
International activities
International cooperation is vital to the effective
operation of all National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services. The global exchange of
critical real-time data allows countries to monitor
and predict the atmosphere and deliver the
services upon which their communities depend.
The Bureau gives high priority to meteorological
cooperation within the southwest Pacific and
southeast Asia. As one of the leading
meteorological and hydrological agencies in the
region, the Bureau is an active provider of
specialist training to staff from neighbouring
countries.
The Bureau is involved in
many AusAID funded
projects, particularly in the
southwest Pacific and
southeast Asia.
AusAID anticipates that as
the Australian aid program
grows, so too will its
involvement in disaster
preparedness and response,
including beyond the
immediate region.



AusAID has expressed a desire for further
collaboration with the Bureau. It anticipates that
as the Australian aid program grows and expands,
its disaster preparedness and response interests
will likely extend beyond the immediate region.106
Aviation, defence and commercial
services
The Bureau also provides services to the defence
force under a recently reviewed and signed
Strategic Partnering Agreement. Services include
the provision of forecasts, real-time
meteorological observations and climatological
data, meteorological training and professional
advice to assist military decision-making processes.
Under the agreement, the Bureau recovers the full
cost of providing the service.
The Bureau provides a broad
range of specialist forecast
services on a commercial or
cost-recovery basis, including
tailored services for the
aviation and defence services.
Specialist services
The Bureau provides a broad range of specialist
services on a commercial or cost-recovery basis.
Cost-recovery is generally applied to services to
other government departments and does not
include any profit margin. Services to the private
sector are charged at commercial rates.
Tailored forecast services are used for operations
and strategic planning in weather-sensitive
industries such as mining (both onshore and
offshore), energy production, construction,
tourism, agriculture, and shipping. They include:

Several AusAID-funded projects in the Pacific were
either led by, or contributed to, by the Bureau.
These projects include:



24
the Pacific Climate Change Science Program;
the Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Project;
the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate
Monitoring Project;
the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance
Program;
the Building Solomon Islands Capacity to
Respond to Tsunami Threat; and
capacity building, training and operational
support to Fiji Meteorological Service.

real-time forecasting of weather and related
oceanographic elements such as wind, waves,
temperature and rainfall tailored to clients
needs in a variety of formats;
severe weather forecasting of events such as
tropical cyclones and thunderstorm squalls;
and
Chapter 1

research and development projects, aligned
with Bureau strategic priorities but funded
through external sources.
19% of the Bureau’s revenue
comes from cost-recovered and
commercial services.
In 2010-11, The Bureau’s income from all costrecovered and commercial services totalled $61
million, or 19% per cent of total operating
revenue.107
1.4.2 Environmental information
The Bureau has an aspirational goal of providing an
expanded ‘environmental intelligence’ role. 108 Its
Strategic Plan states that:
“Over the next five years we will transform our
agency into one capable of providing a
comprehensive environmental intelligence service
to the Australian public. We will retain a strong
focus on core meteorological services but in future
we will also focus on the interactions with our
ocean, land and water resources, as well as the
ecosystems that depend on them.”109
The Bureau’s vision of an
expanded ‘environmental
intelligence’ role provides a
logical frame for its future
direction over the longer term.
1.5 The Basic Product Set
According to the Bureau’s website, its "Basic
Product Set" encompasses the services that are
available free of charge to the community through
the mass media and on its website.111 The concept
stemmed from recommendations of the Slatyer
Review in 1997, which envisaged the potential to
increase revenue from services provided outside
the Basic Product Set.112
The original Basic Product Set released in 2000 was
defined as a set of generic products that included:





An internal policy developed in 2006 sought to
clarify the arrangements and provide greater
guidance on the Basic Product Set and services
that should be cost-recovered.
The cost-recovery of services outside the Basic
Product Set was addressed again in a review
carried out in 2008. The following principles were
recommended:



As a series of new functions have been added to
the Bureau, most notably water information, this
unifying theme provides a logical frame for the
Bureau’s future direction over the longer term. It
reflects the vision of the National Plan for
Environmental Information (NPEI) under which the
Bureau was tasked by the Australian Government
to develop an environmental information system
and standards.110 This program is modestly funded
($18 million over four years) relative to the
Bureau’s other functions. However full
implementation would require a major investment
of both financial and managerial resources and
would indeed transform the Bureau into a very
different agency from the one we see today.
qualitative reports of present and expected
weather;
quantitative observations and forecasts of
specific elements for a number of days ahead;
warnings of severe weather conditions likely
to give rise to the potential for loss of life;
a variety of graphical images such as routine
synoptic analysis, satellite imagery, and radar
imagery; and
a range of climate-related products.


weather data and the climate record should
be available free of charge to the public;
work undertaken on the climate record at the
request of members of the public (for
example, data sorting) should be costrecovered;
work undertaken on behalf of other
Commonwealth agencies (such as Defence)
should be fully cost-recovered;
commercial customers should be charged for
tailored services at commercial rates; and
commercial activities undertaken by the
Bureau must be competitively neutral.
The Bureau has implemented
a number of improvements to
its cost-recovery
arrangements, resulting in an
increase in its revenue from
services provided.
25
Chapter 1
Since then, the Bureau has made a number of
improvements to its cost-recovery arrangements.
For example, the Bureau has implemented a web
based costing and pricing tool to facilitate the
consistent costing and pricing of revenuegenerating activities. The model adopts a risk
based pricing methodology and incorporates the
requirements of competitive neutrality. The
Bureau’s Chief Executive Instructions have been
updated to incorporate the requirement for the
Chief Financial Officer, or delegate, to approve all
contracts for commercial services.
Changes to the charging of services to the aviation
sector have also been made. Since January 2010
services that benefit the industry as a whole are
cost-recovered under the Meteorological Service
Charge and services provided to individual airlines
are subject to a commercial negotiation with an
associated commercial pricing regime.
Together, these measures have resulted in a 57%
increase in revenue from services rendered to
third parties between the 2010 and 2011 financial
years (from $29.2 million to $45.8 million).
1.6 Discretion to manage
workloads during peaks of
demand
The Bureau’s weather services operate under a
hierarchy of documentation as shown in Diagram
11. Australian Government Acts and Regulations
and Bureau Policies, Practices, Procedures and
Plans form the high level framework under which
the various policies and guides sit. Water, climate
and space weather services are delivered under
different arrangements.
Diagram 11 - Hierarchy of Bureau guidelines
26
The ‘Weather and Ocean Services Policy
Handbook’ describes the underpinning policy
framework supporting operational forecast and
warning services provided by the Bureau. Detailed
practices and procedures are maintained in
National Services Guides. Procedures specific to
each Regional Office are detailed in the Regional
Directives and Regional Standard Operating
Procedures.
The Bureau’s Weather and Oceans Services Policy
Handbook provides some guidance for regional
forecasting centres to organise workloads. It ranks
priorities in terms of the following:




essential;
high priority (omitted only in exceptional
circumstances);
medium priority (provided in majority of
situations); and
lowest priority (expendable in heavy workload
situations).
These priorities are intended to be flexible
guidelines, acting as a framework within which
Bureau officers can exercise their discretion to
take account of particular circumstances. The
Review has not seen much evidence of this
prioritisation being strictly implemented. More
often, the Bureau staff will continue to produce all
products but cut back on quality steps.
The prioritisation system above has been activated
during several events and also at times when staff
are not available due to sick leave or having
previously worked extended hours.
Chapter 1
In addition, several products have been withdrawn
on a permanent basis to free up capacity. These
include:





state and metropolitan forecasts other than
5am and 5pm are no longer issued in most
regions;
regional specialised meteorological centre
charts have been heavily reduced;
public phone briefings have ceased in most
regions;
district forecasts have been reduced to twice
daily only; and
routine media briefings have been
significantly scaled back.
With the roll-out of the NexGen FWS, Standard
Operating Procedures based on the above
prioritisation system are included to concentrate
effort on the highest level products and remove
time consuming quality control of lower level
products.
27
Chapter 2 Capacity, Capability
and Constraints
2.1 People
2.1.1 Staff profile
As at 30 June 2011, the Bureau employed 1,490
ongoing and 284 non-ongoing staff, including
meteorologists, hydrologists, researchers and
engineers, as well as people skilled in fields such as
finance, human resources, information technology
and communications.113
Australian Government’s use of ICT (the Gershon
Review). Scoping work has also commenced for a
Bureau-wide capability framework based on the
'job families' model and the Australian Public
Service (APS) Integrated Leadership System.
The total number of staff declined from 1660 in
1990 to 1420 in 2005, followed by a rise to 1774 in
2011, as a result of the inclusion of new functions
and an increase in external funding. Whereas in
1990 all Bureau staff were funded under
appropriation resources, by 2011 approximately
290 (18% of all staff) were being funded from
other sources.
2000
A significant proportion of the
Bureau’s staff work shifts to
maintain a round-the-clock
national weather watch.
1800
1600
1400
1200
A significant proportion of staff (23%) work shifts
to maintain a round-the-clock nationwide weather
watch and to provide ongoing forecasts every day
of the year. A total of five people (four forecasters
and one supervisor) are required to cover a single
position on 24/7 roster, allowing for approximately
five days per person of training and development.
Number of Staff
1000
800
600
400
200
Externally-funded
National Plan for Environmental Information
Strategic Radar Enhancement Project
Ionospheric Prediction Service
Water Functions
NexGenFWS
Core funded
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Financial Year (Ending)
Diagram 12 - Staffing by funding source
Maintaining the necessary
expertise across all parts of the
organisation is an ongoing
challenge for the Bureau.
Maintaining the necessary expertise across all
parts of the organisation is an ongoing challenge
for the Bureau. The UK MetOffice observes similar
difficulties in recruiting staff with “the rare
combination of skills...exacerbated by government
constraints on pay and conditions.”114 To address
this, the Bureau has developed a Workforce Plan
which is intended to strengthen the agency’s
capacity to retain and recruit staff.115
Specific workforce plans have been developed for
ICT and Operational Meteorology. These plans
cover strategic direction and identification of
business goals, current and future workforce
analysis, workforce gap analysis and workforce
strategy development. The ICT Workforce Plan was
developed as a result of the review of the
28
Diagram 12 shows how significantly the Bureau
has grown since 2008 with the addition of new
functions and the growth of externally funded
services. The overall decline in core funded staff is
partly explained by the move to cost-recovery for
some of the Bureau’s services (for example the
shift in funding of aviation services caused the
decline in 2010). However, the application of the
efficiency dividend has also led to an underlying
and gradual downward trend. The decline in core
funded staff is demonstrated in more detail in
Diagram 13.
The staff profile has rebalanced gradually over the
last ten years. The Bureau has increased the
number of qualified meteorologists and ICT staff,
while reducing observers and non-technical staff.
Chapter 2
1600
Water
1400
Research
1200
Corporate
Number of Staff
1000
ICT
800
Climate
600
Observations
400
Analysis and
prediction
Weather and
Warnings
200
population and resource-based economy as
Australia under a comparable governance model
to the Bureau, employs approximately 227 staff in
similar roles across its seven regional offices. The
Bureau also has 42 staff (most hydrologists) in its
flood warning and forecasting role across
Australia, including in the regional and head
offices.
The observation program
remains the most labour
intensive of the Bureau’s
functions.
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
Financial Year (Ending)
There are 220 operational meteorologists in the
organisation. Of these, approximately 100 are
employed in roles funded through own-sourced
income, such as aviation and defence support
roles. The remaining 120 or so are deployed as
frontline staff across the seven regional offices.
This includes 28 internationally-recruited staff on
two to three year contracts, for whom there is
currently no budget allocated for extension.
The ongoing complement of
around 90 operational
meteorologists in frontline
regional roles appears lean by
international standards.
Excluding the internationally recruited staff, the
ongoing complement of around 76 operational
meteorologists is lean in comparison with similar
organisations. For example, the Meteorological
Service of Canada, which serves a similar sized
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Observers
Observer Inspectors
Technical Maintenance
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
The Bureau employs around 500 staff who are in
roles classified as meteorologists. However, many
of these roles are filled by staff with professional
qualifications other than meteorology and cannot
perform the duties of an operational
meteorologist. An operational meteorologist is
defined as a person who has successfully
completed the Graduate Diploma of Meteorology
or equivalent, has completed a suitable period of
on-the-job training in an operational forecast
centre, and is judged to be proficient to
competently deliver meteorological services.
The observation program remains the most labour
intensive of the Bureau’s functions. While
automation has enabled significant reduction in
the number of observers since 1990, the number
of observation inspectors and technical
maintenance officers has remained relatively
constant (see Diagram 14 below).
Number of Staff
Diagram 13 - Core funded staff by function (the bottom
layer of Diagram 12)
Year
Diagram 14 - Operational observing program staff
numbers 1990 to 2011
The Bureau also has 200 paid part time weather
observers (known as cooperative observers) and
6,500 voluntary rainfall observers complement the
Bureau’s own observing sites across Australia.
Expertise required for extreme weather
events
The Bureau’s response to extreme weather events
requires a range of skills. Regional offices employ
meteorologists, hydrologists, observers,
technicians, administrators and communicators –
all of whom play a role during extreme events.
Meteorologists work shifts covering a 24 hour,
seven-day-a-week roster and hydrologists also
move to shift operations during flood events.
29
Chapter 2
The specialist skills and
expertise required for extreme
weather events is held with
only a small number of
individuals in each region.
Senior regional staff have
developed trusted
relationships with their
counterparts in the state
emergency services and
have built up extensive
local knowledge over
many years. Their
contextual knowledge is
seen as critical to
contribute to effective
decision-making.
In addition to the skills required for day-to-day
public weather services, responding to extreme
weather events calls for specialist expertise and
contextual awareness. The skills required of
forecasters include:



30
the ability to make judgments based on
complex data sets and forecast models so that
the likely impact of the weather event can be
assessed. Bureau advice can lead to the
decision to initiate large scale operations, such
as evacuations, in circumstances where costs
are high and lives are at risk. The gravity of
these decisions places significant pressure on
the accuracy of Bureau information. Some
stakeholders consulted during the Review
commented on the growing need for advice
that will stand up to intense scrutiny in postevent enquiries. Decision-makers are being
held to account for their actions to an
unprecedented extent;
the ability to communicate complex forecasts
and information to diverse stakeholders –
stakeholders have emphasised the importance
of improved interpretation of extreme
weather information by the Bureau.116 In
some jurisdictions, the role of providing
warnings has been devolved to local councils
who may not be confident in their expertise to
interpret technical weather information.
During an extreme weather event, it is vital
that Bureau staff communicate in a way that
can be readily understood and acted upon;
and
the ability to build and maintain close working
relationships with key stakeholders – the
emergency management sector relies on the
advice of known and trusted Bureau staff to
make rapid and appropriate decisions. 117
These individuals are valued not only for their
technical skills but also for their ability to
apply their knowledge of local emergency
services operations and how decisions are
taken on the ground – a capability that is built
up over time and depends on tacit as well as
explicit understanding.
Observers and technicians also play an important
role and must have:


the ability to respond rapidly to equipment
failures in the field and to diagnose and rectify
problems to ensure continuity of
observations; and
the ability to provide up-to-the minute
observations of weather as it occurs and to
take adaptive or ad-hoc observations as
requested by forecasters.
Expertise required for the Bureau’s other
services supporting functions
The Bureau also requires officers with certain skills
for its other services. Other key areas of expertise
for seasonal forecasting, general weather
forecasting and the Bureau’s other services include
expertise in:



technical and engineering – enabling the
Bureau to maintain continuous availability of
its large infrastructure base;
information technology – enabling the Bureau
to operate the communications and
computing infrastructure upon which the rest
of the organisation is heavily dependent;
research – the specialised nature of many of
the Bureau’s systems requires a team of
dedicated scientists to support development
and applied research. In addition the Bureau
has responsibility for “the promotion of the
advancement of meteorological science by
means of meteorological research and
investigation or otherwise” under the
Meteorology Act 1955;118 and
Chapter 2

corporate functions – like any large
organisation, the Bureau requires the services
of accountants, lawyers, administrators and
human resource professionals.
during long running events. This reliance on a
small number of key individuals is considered one
of the Bureau’s highest risks in the context of this
Review.
2.1.2 Workforce trends and drivers
Culture of individualism and innovation
This Review has identified some distinctive
characteristics of the Bureau’s workforce
demographics and culture that will have an impact
on the sustainability of its operations.
There appears to be a strong culture of
individualism, both with regard to handling
emergency situations and also to organising
individual work practices.122 This is both a strength
and a potential weakness. Products are delivered
direct from the bench to customers without the
hierarchy of checking and revision that would be
the norm in other organisations. Employees are
empowered to develop their own processes – to
improve their outputs – but without any system to
consolidate these improvements, a proliferation of
differing work practices can ensue.123 Many
employees apparently consider it appropriate to
vary the process sequence on an ad-hoc basis.124
Professionalism
Staff of the Bureau have excellent technical skills
and a passionate commitment to serving the
public.119 Stakeholder feedback indicated high
levels of respect for the technical capability and
motivation of the organisation and its staff.120
Bureau staff place high value on continuing
professional development through on-the-job
experience and formal training. Concerns were
expressed to the Review both by the Bureau’s
Executive and by employee representatives that
training hours were being eroded in order to
service growing demand.
Bureau staff have excellent
technical skills and a
passionate commitment to
serving the public.
Over reliance on a small number of
individuals in extreme events
Some critical activities rely on the skills and
discretion of a relatively small number of
individuals.121
Only two or three staff in each
regional office have sufficient
experience, knowledge and
credibility to liaise with very
senior state officials and the
media during extreme
weather events.
The Bureau has a strong
culture of individualism and
innovation.
Meteorologists are first and foremost scientists,
and they are constantly seeking ways to improve
the tools they use. This attitude is reflected
strongly in some of the software systems used by
forecasters for data analysis, a number of which
have been developed by frontline staff to address
their own specific needs (see Box 4).
Box 4 - 'Kenny' case study
‘Kenny’ is a software system developed in
the late 1990s by an operational forecaster
in the Bureau’s South Australian Regional
Office. Kenny, which due to the instability
of early versions was named after the
South Park character who dies in each
episode, was designed to provide the
forecaster with a simple, intuitive interface
for the display of model data. At the time,
In the regional offices only two or three staff have
sufficient experience, knowledge and credibility to
liaise with very senior state officials and the media
during extreme weather events. There is only
limited ability to supplement these resources
31
Chapter 2
the supported software systems were seen
by forecasting staff to have inadequate
functionality. The system was developed
both during shift and after hours, and its
usefulness led to it being picked up by
other forecasters in the office – and soon
by regional forecasting centres across the
country. The forecaster who developed the
software received a number of awards for
his efforts including the Bureau’s Australia
Day Achievement Medal.
After a number of years during which it
was supported by the developer on a best
efforts basis, Kenny was eventually
formally supported by the Bureau’s ICT
Branch. However, the system runs using an
unsupported programming platform which
is computing resource intensive and
expensive to license.
As part of the Bureau’s NextGen FWS
project, a commercial off-the-shelf data
display system has been procured which
will facilitate the retirement of many of the
Bureau’s in-house developed systems,
including Kenny.
It should be noted that, even with the
advent of commercial solutions, the
culture of in-house software development
continues to some degree. The new system
will be implemented in such a way as to
allow forecasters to develop their own
add-on software scripts and templates,
which may create some difficulties in terms
of support capability and back-up
arrangements between the regions.
The process mapping project highlighted that
whilst some degree of discretion at the regional
level may be appropriate, it would be desirable to
achieve greater national standardisation in
operating procedures.
Culture of willingness
As one senior forecaster put it to the Review team
“I don’t think it’s possible to say ‘no’.” This
willingness to meet expressed or anticipated
customer needs manifests itself in the
development of customised products (outside of
specific service agreements) and in the desire to
improve constantly on existing products and also
in the willingness of many frontline staff to work
excessive hours.
32
For example, on request the Bureau’s regional
offices provide fire agencies with services, such as
the controlled burn service, even where these are
not clearly specified by the standard product set or
Memoranda of Understanding (MOU). Similarly,
some regional offices provide services that are not
available in other regions, or that do not have a
firm mandate in terms of government decisions
and funding. An example is the flash flood warning
service provided by the NSW Regional Office to
NSW emergency services.
Frontline staff have been
willing to work extended
hours, going ‘above and
beyond’ what might be
regarded as reasonable or
even safe, to meet customer
needs.
Rather than curtail services, frontline staff have
been willing to work extended hours during
extreme weather events, going ‘above and
beyond’ what might be regarded as reasonable or
even safe, to meet customer needs. In interviews,
many stakeholders commented on this.125 While
they applauded the dedication, several
interviewees expressed concern about the
Bureau’s reliance on a small number of individuals
and the lack of back-up staff.126 It was also noted
that some demand was left unmet. For example
the flood desk in Victoria is not always staffed
overnight (contrary to the expectations of the
Victorian State Emergency Services).
This matter was raised in submissions from the
Commonwealth Public Sector Union (CPSU) and
individual staff:
“The large amount of overtime worked in these
periods can lead to staff becoming burnt out,
especially when the peak periods last for several
days. This then causes mounting fatigue that
reduces the effectiveness of BoM to deal with
situations that are concurrent or last more than a
day or so.”127
“The Bureau really relies on the goodwill of staff to
work above and beyond their normal working
hours just to provide the services required for
community safety.”128
The hours worked by some Bureau staff during
peak periods inevitably lead to concerns about
Chapter 2
staff welfare and occupational health and safety
risks. Fatigue could also increase the potential for
errors in judgement or reduced quality in the
services provided to emergency managers. The
CPSU suggested restriction rosters be introduced
to better manage staff work hours.129
The Bureau has limited
flexibility in its workforce
due to the highly technical
nature of its work.
Aging workforce and loss of expertise
The Bureau’s staff turnover rates are low when
compared with most other Australian Public
Service agencies. This has enabled the Bureau to
retain most of the expertise in which it has
invested and to build up an experienced
workforce. More than half of the Bureau’s
workforce (54%) is 45 years old or older.130 The
Bureau is at risk of losing skills, experience and
capacity as corporate knowledge holders retire,
along with difficulties in engaging experienced
specialist staff. In addition, graduate entry has not
kept pace with separation by retirement. The
Bureau is taking steps to address this risk through
proactive workforce planning and staff
management practices including exit interviews,
documentation for retention of corporate
knowledge, use of part-time staffing and increased
succession planning. 131
Limited labour market
The Bureau employs staff in a number of
categories where the skills required do not have a
broad market beyond the Bureau itself. This is
particularly true of the Meteorologist and
Observer classifications, and also to some extent
for the Technical Officer (Engineering)
classification.
The Bureau’s regional offices
are able to cope with short
extreme weather events, but
find it difficult to sustain
service levels during
protracted events,
particularly if multiple
events are occurring across
regions as was the case in the
2010-11 summer season.
The Bureau has a limited range of options to boost
capacity to meet peaks in demand driven by
extreme weather events. Generally, the Bureau’s
regional offices are able to cover short duration
events (1-3 days) through current operational
procedures by asking staff to work overtime.
However, during protracted events, such as
campaign fires or the 2011 Queensland Floods,
additional resources must be sourced from other
states. This becomes problematic when multiple
events occur across several regions – as was the
case in the 2010-11 summer season (see
Diagram 15).
Diagram 15 - Severe weather events, January to February 2011
33
Chapter 2
The sequence of events was a real life test of the
Bureau’s capacity, exceeding the most demanding
scenario contemplated by the Bureau in its
Extreme Weather Stress test in 2009 (discussed
further in Section 3.3). The Bureau has a formal
priority list for reducing other services if resources
are constrained (see Section 1.6).132 In practice this
does not free up resources to a sufficient extent to
allow people to be fully redeployed.
For meteorologists, the Bureau has been able to
draw on overseas resources to a limited extent.
This includes the recruits brought in on contract to
assist with the rollout of NexGen FWS. The Bureau
also has reciprocal arrangements with the United
States National Weather Service which can be
called upon to provide some short term assistance.
However, even highly skilled and experienced
meteorologists require significant on-the-job
training and familiarisation with local conditions.
2.2 Processes
In parallel with an examination of the Bureau’s
delivery of services from a customer perspective,
the Review undertook an analysis of the Bureau’s
processes. This analysis enabled a greater
understanding of the Bureau’s product and service
supply chain.
In its assessment of the Bureau’s processes, the
Review was assisted by work commissioned by the
Bureau to review the processes followed to
produce extreme weather, seasonal forecasting
and general weather forecasting services and
products (see Box 5).
Box 5 - Process mapping
The CPSU raised concerns that the staffing of
operational weather and flood forecasting areas is
insufficient to allow internal post-event analysis
and continuous improvement of forecasting and
warning services.133 At the same time, external
post-event reviews are becoming more time
consuming and formal.
The Process Review identified a set of key
activities contributing to broad processes
relating to extreme weather, seasonal
forecasting and general weather
forecasting, and grouped these activities
under the following key process elements:
Observation, Run Model, Analyse,
Forecast, Communicate, Escalate, Warning
and Review. Workshops were held with 60
Bureau staff to collate the entire list of
activities within each process.
Following an extreme weather event, resource
impacts can be felt long afterwards, as the Bureau
is required to contribute to official investigations
or inquiries that can last for months or years.
Coronial enquiries, Royal Commissions and similar
reviews require the Bureau to supply extensive
evidence to a high standard of rigour. The
Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry offers a
case in point: the Bureau prepared and submitted
3,801 pages of evidence to the Inquiry and overall
devoted many person-months of effort to
activities related to the Inquiry.
This information was presented in three
visual representations: process flow
diagrams that illustrated the steps
required to complete each process;
Responsible-Accountable-Consult-Inform
(RACI) maps to identify which staff have
which roles within each process and any
duplication or overlap; and CustomersOutputs-Processes-Inputs-Suppliers
(COPIS) maps of the Bureau’s extreme
weather, seasonal forecasting, and general
weather supply chains.
Post-event review
Impacts of the efficiency dividend
Bureau staff have raised concerns that the
application of the Australian Government’s
efficiency dividend has resulted in a decline in real
terms of base funding for observing, forecast and
warning functions. This has been exacerbated by a
number of salary increases in excess of
supplementation. Some agencies may have been
able to meet the requirements of the efficiency
dividend by eliminating low value outputs;
however, in the face of escalating demand for its
services across the board, the Bureau has not had
this option. The net result has been a reduction in
affordable staff numbers for observing, forecast
and warning functions of around 2% per year.
34
Discussion
As a general observation it appears that the
Bureau’s services rely on the individual knowledge
and capability of its workforce, rather than
systematised and documented end-to-end
processes. This is somewhat surprising in an
organisation that delivers such a wide range of
outputs on an industrial scale.
Chapter 2

The Bureau’s services rely on
the individual knowledge and
capability of its workforce,
rather than systematised and
documented end-to-end
processes.
This is somewhat surprising
in an organisation that
delivers such a wide range of
outputs on an industrial
scale.

formalising methods for gathering and
analysing customer requirements to inform
decision-making and monitoring of service
delivery processes; and
clarifying and formalising communication
paths and establishing systems (ICT) to
support messaging (including the prioritisation
of messages) within the organisation.
The Process Review noted that the Bureau’s
“...capacity and capability are totally dependent on
its observational, analytical, and enabling
processes, which means that improvements must
be driven from these foundations.”137 It appears
that extreme weather events exacerbate
systematic process related issues that are endemic
within the Bureau.138
2.3 Technology
The Process Review indicated that the Bureau
“...does not have a natural disposition to consider
its operations from a process orientation”134 and
that while its activities and functions were well
defined, they are not “...integrated into a process
architecture with clearly mapped interrelationships, responsibilities, and
dependencies.”135
Through analysis of the RACI maps, it was also
apparent that some processes had multiple
personnel accountable, suggesting the need for
more clarity on accountabilities within and
between different parts of the organisation. The
Process Review noted that a “lack of clarity at
handover points is often an indicator of possible
[in]efficiencies caused either by overlap or by
rework at the handover points.”136
Workshops held as part of the Process Review
highlighted that staff saw the Bureau’s major
issues as the capability of its technology (raised
141 times), the capacity of its people (raised 118
times) and the capability of its processes (raised 58
times). These observations give rise to a range of
opportunities for the Bureau to manage its
processes better, in alignment with its systems,
including:



taking an overarching ‘systems’ perspective of
the organisation;
developing a clear governance structure for its
agreed process model;
reducing variation across regions in processes
by adopting standard national processes (for
example, there is currently no national
directive for fire weather services, which has
led to an ad-hoc regional approach to charging
for these services);
In its assessment of the Bureau’s systems and
technology, the Review was again assisted by the
Process Review commissioned by the Bureau.139
This work provided some general insights into how
the Bureau uses its technology to support its
processes to produce extreme weather, seasonal
forecasting and general weather forecasting
services and products. The systems supporting the
Bureau are described below.
2.3.1 Observational network
The Bureau’s observation network is part of an
integrated international system, containing an
inventory of complex technical facilities across
Australia and Antarctica.140 The network includes:



Surface observations – Staffed meteorological
stations (58 sites). Automated Weather
Stations (AWS) (615 sites), cooperative
observers (approximately 370 sites, some with
collocated AWS), rainfall observing stations
(7,349, many of which are manned by
volunteers).
Upper air and satellite observations –
Weather balloons (currently 47 stations
planned to reduce by 9), radar wind profilers
(4 stations, with 9 more planned), aircraft
observations (contributions from 69 aircraft,
mostly operated by Qantas), satellite data
(from Japanese and Chinese geo-stationary
satellites and United States, European Union
and Chinese polar orbiting satellites and
others), ground satellite reception facilities.
Marine/Ocean observations – Sea-level
networks (to support tsunami warnings, tide
predictions and climate monitoring of sealevel rise), fleet of volunteer observing ships
(fluctuates between 80 to 100), annual
deployment of about 20 surface drifting buoys
35
Chapter 2

with a two year lifespan, expendable
bathythermograph probes and Argo floats (to
provide ocean subsurface profiles of
temperature and salinity)
Weather radars – 65 operational weather
surveillance radars, one new Doppler radar in
Wollongong and three more to be added over
the coming years (in Hobart, Mount Isa and
the Northern Territory).141
Discussion
The Review received positive comments on the
introduction of additional radars, although the
gaps in coverage were also raised.
The Bureau’s radars are
amongst the most heavily
visited pages on its website.
There will continue to be
demand to fill remaining gaps
in the radar network.
Diagram 16 shows the current radar coverage
(identified in blue) and new radars being installed
(identified in green) as a result of funding of $48
million over seven years announced in the 2009-10
Budget.142
MSC’s upper air program stations (31 sites) are
now operated by contractors, which has resulted
in significant cost savings. A small number of upper
air stations are operated by MSC staff (for
example, at the national training facility and in
extremely remote locations where a local
workforce is not available, such as at weather and
military stations in the high Arctic). The Canadian
government recently provided $75 million over
five years for the renewal of MSC’s automatic
surface weather and climate stations and weather
radars (including upgrading ten radars to dual
polarization capability), as well as funding for the
extension of the existing contract for the
supercomputer.144
Canada operates only
automated weather stations
for its government funded
surface observations
program.
Similarly, almost all of the
United Kingdom’s
observations are automated.
Similarly, almost all of the UK MetOffice’s
observations are automated with just three
manned observing sites (15 staff) remaining.145
The Review acknowledges that approaches taken
by other countries are not necessarily comparable
or would be able to be readily adopted by the
Bureau. Barriers include the differences in
available technology, climate models and
limitations due to difference in geography, size
and weather patterns. Nonetheless, the benefits of
continuing to increase automation warrant
consideration.
2.3.2 Supercomputer
Diagram 16 - Radar coverage
In contrast to the Bureau, the Meteorological
Service of Canada (MSC) operates only automated
weather stations for its government funded
surface observing program.143 The MSC’s
automated surface stations are supplemented by
partnered and volunteer observations, including
those from provincial agencies, other government
departments and airports, as well as effective
information sharing systems. All but three of the
36
The Bureau has substantial computing and data
storage requirements. It has owned and operated
a supercomputer since the 1980s, with upgrades
made roughly every four to five years. The
Bureau’s high performance computing
infrastructure is one of its most costly assets.
The supercomputer provides the capacity to
process observational data (billions of bits of data
gathered per day), to undertake research and to
run the large models that underpin daily
forecasting activity.
Chapter 2
The Bureau’s Numerical Weather Prediction
models require substantial supercomputing
capacity to enable the assimilation of a broad
range of current weather datasets (atmospheric,
oceanographic and land) to make timely and
accurate predictions. Numerical weather
prediction uses mathematical models of the
atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather
based on current weather conditions.
To generate a published forecast, the model
outputs are used in conjunction with observational
data using a wide range of additional software
applications, many of which have been developed
in-house without direct ICT support as discussed in
Section 2.1.2.
The Bureau’s supercomputer is
due to be replaced in 2013-14.
The Bureau is required to bid
for funding to replace it.
The Bureau current supercomputer is scheduled to
be upgraded by 2013-14. The approach taken to
this upgrade is a major decision for the Bureau. It
is required to bid for capital funding even to
replace like-for-like (i.e. to maintain the status
quo). This issue is discussed further in Chapter 4.
Despite some recent improvements, the Bureau’s
current arrangements for disaster recovery and
business continuity are not completely robust. It
recently experienced two significant incidents:


in January 2010 a fire in one of the chillers in
the central computing facility air-conditioning
infrastructure presented safety risks and
highlighted the risk associated with housing a
critical piece of infrastructure in the Bureau’s
headquarters; and
in August 2011 a fire in one of two
Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) units that
support the central computing facility placed
Bureau services (including those for aviation
and defence stakeholders) at potential risk of
an outage if the fire had spread to the second
UPS which is located adjacent.
2.3.3 Information and communications
technology network
The communication network of landline, satellite
and radio systems allows for the flow of
information between Bureau offices and other
organisations around Australia. The Bureau is also
connected to a larger worldwide network
supporting its collaboration with overseas
meteorological agencies. The Bureau has raised
concerns that its communications costs are rising
faster than inflation and that it is likely to
experience bandwidth constraint in coming years.
As an illustration, five years ago, the annual
download of data from the Bureau’s website was
91,000GB and the peak monthly access rate was
1.3 billion hits. By 2010-11 the annual download
rate had doubled to 182,000GB and the peak
monthly access rate had nearly quadrupled to 4.9
billion hits.
2.3.4 Trends and drivers
Aging infrastructure
The Bureau manages an asset base valued on its
balance sheet at approximately $500 million. This
includes:





land and buildings ($79 million);
property, plant and equipment ($294 million);
intangible assets ($29 million);
inventories ($17 million); and
cash and receivables ($73 million).
The Bureau has a significant
number of assets still in
commission that have
exceeded their useful life.
Next generation assets
generally offer greater
capability for a comparable
cost or higher. However,
greater capability often
results in more data, and the
Bureau’s systems then need
to be upgraded to cope with
these data increases.
A recent audit of its assets highlighted that the
Bureau has a significant number of assets (with a
written down value of approximately $33 million)
still in commission that have exceeded their
intended useful life.146 As a result, the Bureau is
carrying elevated risks of equipment and service
failure. The gap between available funding and
replacement cost is increasing over time. This issue
is compounded as technology shifts mean that it is
not always possible to replace like-for-like.
37
Chapter 2
Particularly in the ICT domain, lower cost legacy
technology is often no longer available.
Next generation assets generally offer greater
capability for a comparable cost or higher. Radars
are another example where newer models offer
additional capabilities such as dopplerisation (i.e.
the measurement of the velocity of objects
detected). Costs can also be driven by exogenous
factors. Meteorological satellites provide a good
example where the volume and complexity of data
increases with each new launch, and Bureau
systems must be upgraded to cope with these
increases.
The Bureau has been implementing a number of
strategies to extend the useful life of its assets and
manage the gap between available funding and
replacement cost. These strategies remain valid
and there does not appear to be an imminent crisis
although business continuity risk may be
increasing.
Legacy of home-grown software
The Bureau’s culture previously was one that
permitted the proliferation of customised ICT
systems. This has made support and upgrades
difficult.147 The Bureau has advised that it has
commenced a process to rationalise its
applications and was able to provide some
evidence of this (see Section 3.1.2 for further
details).
The Bureau has experienced some challenges in
delivering efficiencies to its ICT systems, for
example, in the migration to a lower cost
operating system (see Box 6).
Box 6 - Delivering efficiencies through the migration to a
single Enterprise Linux environment
The Bureau committed to a number of cost
savings initiatives to deliver targets
mandated in the Government’s ICT
Efficiency Review (the Gershon Review).
One initiative was the phasing out of a
number of proprietary hardware systems
and migrating to lower cost Linux systems.
This was intended to save $1.25 million
dollars in replacement costs in 2009-10
and $1.1 million in maintenance costs by
2012-13. Due to an initial underestimate of
the extent of the work required, resourcing
constraints have caused this initiative to
fall well behind schedule.
For these migrations, there is a significant
base of very old and highly integrated
legacy applications which has added a
significant degree of difficulty. The
Regional Office migration project requires
significant work on locally developed
applications to move them into the
virtualised Linux environment. This is
taking the time of regional staff as well as
ICT professionals.
The inability to meet some of the savings
targets in the short term has caused
budgetary stress in the Bureau's ICT
program; however, moving to less
proprietary hardware platforms will
provide significant savings in the long
term. The migration to a single Enterprise
Linux environment will reduce
development and support costs into the
future.
The establishment of virtualised
infrastructure* and a virtual first policy**
is delivering dividends in hardware
maintenance costs, power savings,
flexibility, and responsiveness in both the
development and operational
environments. While seen as difficult in the
short term, the porting of applications to a
virtualised environment which can be
easily replicated is expected to provide
better visibility and control of the overall
operational environment with a resultant
improvement in business continuity
capability across the Bureau's operations.
38
Chapter 2
* a single large computer system hosts a
number of smaller virtual systems – this
reduces hardware maintenance costs whilst
retaining the flexibility of running multiple
operating systems
** the employment of virtual systems unless
this is impossible due to hardware limitations
Other observations made by the Review include
that:


improved process governance would enable
systems integration across the organisation;148
and
improved communication processes would
ensure consistent information flow through
the organisation and allow messaging
prioritisation.149
2.4 Other inputs and suppliers
The Review also sought information on the
Bureau’s inputs and suppliers to gain a greater
understanding of their relationship to the Bureau’s
product and service supply chain.
In its assessment of the Bureau’s other inputs and
suppliers, the Review was assisted (in part) by the
Process Review commissioned by the Bureau. As
discussed in Section 2.2, the Bureau’s inputs and
suppliers were mapped on COPIS maps to illustrate
their interaction with the Bureau’s core processes,
outputs and customers along the products and
service supply chain.
The main finding of this analysis is that the Bureau
does have a wide range of ‘make or buy’ options
with respect to how it resources its services for the
future. For example, it can undertake its own
research, partner with other organisations such as
CSIRO, or rely entirely on third party research.
Similarly, the Bureau can invest in its own
observation network or rely to a greater extent on
data supplied by networks installed and operated
by other state and local government agencies, or
private companies.
At an extreme it could even consider stepping back
from supercomputing and preparing forecasts
based entirely on model feeds from weather
agencies overseas. However, this would result in a
degradation in quality and timeliness that is
unlikely to be acceptable in the context of severe
weather events and therefore is not considered
further in this Review.
On the other hand the Bureau has demonstrated
some success in adopting technology developed
elsewhere. For example, the Australian
Community Climate and Earth System Simulator
(ACCESS) is a local implementation of the Unified
Model developed by the UK MetOffice and
NexGen FWS is an implementation of the Gridded
File Editor developed by the United States National
Weather Service (see Box 7). Not only does this
reduce upfront software development costs, but it
avoids the risks associated with unsupported
‘home-grown’ applications.
Box 7- Australian Community Climate and Earth System
Simulator (ACCESS)
The Australian Community Climate and
Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) is a joint
initiative of the Bureau of Meteorology
and the CSIRO in cooperation with the
university community in Australia. At its
core is the implementation of the UK
MetOffice’s Unified Model. ACCESS is a
coupled climate and earth system
simulator which provides the numerical
weather prediction capability to underpin
the Bureau’s meteorological services, and
assists CSIRO by providing the best possible
science for use in analysing climate
impacts and adaptation, and related fields.
ACCESS became the Bureau’s operational
Numeric Weather Prediction system on
17 August 2010, replacing a suite of inhouse developed regional and global
models. Eventually, ACCESS will allow
CSIRO and university scientists to take a
holistic view of the entire climate system
including elements such as the ocean,
carbon cycle, sea-ice, and cloud chemistry.
It will also enable Australia to contribute
appropriate climate projections and
scenarios to the Fifth Assessment by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
2.4.1 Relative costs across budget lines
Budget overview
The Bureau’s operations are largely funded from
Government appropriation. The Bureau also
receives a growing proportion of revenue from the
sale of goods and services as discussed in Section
1.4. A breakdown of the Bureau’s operating
revenue is at Table 11.
The reduction in appropriation funding relates to
the change in how depreciation is reported and is
offset by the introduction of a departmental
39
Chapter 2
capital budget. In 2010-11 the Bureau’s operating
revenue was $264 million, including $202 million
from the Australian Government and $62 million
from other sources. The Bureau reported an
operating deficit of $55 million as a result of the
change in the way in which depreciation and asset
replacements are appropriated and reported.
From 1 July 2010, funding previously appropriated
for depreciation was replaced with a Departmental
Capital Budget. For the 2010-11 year, the Bureau
had a Departmental Capital Budget of $55.2
million, of which it spent $50.2 million. The
Departmental Capital Budget is not shown on the
Bureau’s Statement of Comprehensive Income as
it is considered as contributed equity and reported
in the statement of changes of equity. This is an
Australian Public Service-wide change intended to
align funding arrangements with cash
requirements in the years in which obligations fall
due.
Income from other sources
The Bureau’s income from other sources has
increased almost three fold in recent years from
$21.5 million in 2007-08 to $62 million in 2010-11.
The majority of this revenue is the sale of goods
and rendering of services ($60 million in 2010-11).
Approximately $4.7 million in 2010-11 was from
commercial services, the remainder being costrecovered under Section 31 of the FMA Act. This is
partly the result of stricter implementation of its
cost-recovery policies, including the introduction
in January 2010 of a revised cost-recovery model
for the provision of aviation and defence weather
services. An increase in the number and size of
cost-recovered projects has also contributed.
Expenditure
The Bureau’s total operating expenses are steadily
increasing. In 2010-11, operating expenses
increased by $31 million (or 11%) compared to the
previous year.
Staffing is a key cost driver for the Bureau. In 201011 employee expenses represented 51 % of the
total costs associated with the delivery of the
Bureau’s functions, up from 49% of total costs the
previous year. The 13% increase in this category of
expense relative to the previous year was a result
of the growth in staff numbers (see Section 2.1.1)
coupled with an average 3.9% increase in pay rates
over 2009-10.
The forward estimates show staff costs decreasing
both in absolute dollars and as a percentage of
total expenses. This is a troubling trend given the
difficulty the Bureau is experiencing in maintaining
adequate staff numbers in frontline roles.
40
The Bureau’s total operating
expenses are steadily
increasing.
Staffing is a key cost driver,
representing approximately
half of the Bureau’s costs.
Depreciation costs were $61 million in 2010-11 (or
19%) of overall costs. Depreciation increased by
13% relative to the previous financial year as a
result of an increased number of full depreciated
assets being refreshed (via the Bureau’s asset
investment and replacement program) and asset
revaluations.
Relative costs across functions
The Bureau does not have a full activity based
costing system and the Review did not make any
significant findings from the estimated attribution
of expenditure at sub-program level provided by
the Bureau.
At program level, the Bureau identified the
following percentage allocations of its budget in
2010-11:








Observations – 16%
Weather and Warnings Services – 21%
Climate Information – 5%
Water Information – 10.6%
Observations and Engineering – 8.9%
Research – 6.4%
IT and Communications – 14.4%
Corporate Support – 17%
This highlights that a large proportion of the
Bureau’s budget (46.7%) is allocated to its
overheads (IT, Communications and Corporate
Support) and its ‘enabling’ functions (Research,
Observations and Engineering).
The observations functions involve a large number
of staff (approximately 21% of total staff numbers)
who are responsible for taking and recording
observations across Australia, including at 58
staffed meteorological stations. These staff are
largely funded via direct appropriation. The extent
to which the Bureau outsources or uses other
funding streams for its observation functions is low
(see Section 2.3.1 for a discussion of the Canadian
business model for observations).
Chapter 2
In contrast, the Bureau’s funding for its frontline
staff appears to be very lean. According to the
Bureau, the staffing complement of
meteorologists responsible for delivery of the
Bureau’s weather forecasts and warnings has
decreased by almost 42% in the last decade,
declining from 130 in 2001-02 to 76 in 2010-11
(excluding Section 31 funded and project staff).
Given that these resources are spread over seven
regional offices and that five people are required
to provide 24/7 coverage of a single position,
simple arithmetic suggests that this unsustainable
in the face of downward pressure on the Bureau’s
staffing budget. In fact the Bureau has suggested
to the Review that in order to operate at
affordable staffing levels in the 2012-12 year, it
will actually have to reduce its complement of
senior forecasters by seven. While the Bureau may
consider it has few other viable options to meet its
budget, in the context of this Review, such a step
would appear quite unwise.
Table 11 - Breakdown of the Bureau's operating revenue
(Diagrams in millions)
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
Total resources available
$253.7
$272.7
$296.3
$319.5
$332.8
$326.4
$327.9
$334.8
(7.5%)
(8.7%)
(7.8%)
(4.1%)
(-1.2%)
(Year-on-year increase)
Appropriation
$232.2
$244.8
$251.1
$202.4
$208.6
$212.6
$212.1
$213.7
(% of total operating
revenue)
(91.5%)
(89.8%)
(84.8%)
(63.3%)
(62.7%)
(65.1%)
(64.7%)
(63.8%)
(5.4%)
(2.6%)
(-19.4%)
(3.1%)
(1.9%)
(-0.2%)
(0.8%)
(Year-on-year increase)
Other sources
$21.5
$27.8
$45.2
$62.0
$72.9
$61.5
$63.3
$64.2
(% of total operating
revenue)
(8.5%)
(10.2%)
(15.2%)
(19.4%)
(21.9%)
(18.8%)
(19.3%)
(19.2%)
$55.2
$51.3
$52.3
$52.6
$56.9
(17.3%)
(15.4%)
(16.0%)
(16.0%)
(17.0%)
Departmental Capital
Budget
Total expenses
$249.3
$264.8
$289.0
$319.6
$327.8
$326.5
$328.4
$330.5
Staffing costs
$127.2
$132.8
$141.3
$162.9
$160.9
$164.0
$166.1
$167.7
(% of total costs)
(51.0%)
(50.1%)
(48.9%)
(51.0%)
(49.1%)
(50.2%)
(50.9%)
(51.4%)
Suppliers
$71.4
$80.3
$89.1m
$92.4
$109.6
$104.6
$104.8
$105.3
(% of total costs)
(28.2%)
(30.3%)
(30.8%)
(29.0%)
(33.4%)
(32.0%)
(32.0%)
(31.5%)
Depreciation
$46.3
$48.8
$53.6
$60.7
$55.5
$56.2
$55.8
$55.8
(% of total costs)
(18.6%)
(18.4%)
(18.6%)
(19.0%)
(16.9%)
(17.2%)
(17.1%)
(17.1%)
Operating surplus / loss
$0.1
$7.8
$7.3
-$0.1
$5.0
-$0.1
-$0.4
$4.3
41
Chapter 3 Challenges, Risks and
Opportunities
The Bureau has undertaken a range of
measures to improve its internal processes;
however, the current Review has also
established that continued effort is required in
this area. The Bureau’s executive has
commented that they believe corporate
functions, as well as service delivery functions,
are under resource pressure and that this is
limiting their capacity to address corporate
risks and develop more robust processes.
3.1 Findings from other reviews
3.1.1 O’Kane Review (2007)
The objective of this Review was to assess the
ability and sustainability of the Bureau to fulfil its
role as Australia’s National Meteorological and
Hydrological Service.
The O’Kane Review recognised the challenges
encountered by the Bureau in operating within its
resource envelope in the face of “...ongoing
intense and rapid change”150, including
technological and scientific advances that “...offer
the Bureau the potential to provide the Australian
nation with a new and enhanced range of
meteorological services”151.
Most of the recommendations suggested the
Bureau approach the Department of Finance for
additional funding. The key recommendations (all
of which are being fully or partially implemented
by the Bureau) included:





42
Expand its environmental monitoring and
prediction capabilities. This recommendation
is being implemented by the Bureau in
collaboration with the Department of
Sustainability, Environment, Water,
Population and Communities through the
National Plan for Environmental Information.
Implement new forecasting models and reengineer its operations. This recommendation
is being implemented through the NexGen
FWS. However, given the lack of process
orientation in the Bureau, it is not clear that
re-engineering of its operations has been
undertaken in any depth.
Enhance weather and climate modelling and
prediction computing. This recommendation is
being implemented through improvements to
ACCESS and upgrades to the supercomputer.
Increase use of satellite and Aircraft
Meteorological Data Relay system (AMDAR),
further automated data acquisition. This
recommendation is being implemented
through the increased use of satellites and
AMDAR, involving the utilisation of
commercial aircraft to automatically measure
meteorological parameters and transmit them
back to ground as the aircraft operates.152
Fix priority setting processes, structure,
budgeting and staffing. Similar issues were
also raised by the Agency Functions and
Finances Review in 2008 (see Section 3.1.2).
3.1.2 Agency Functions and Finances
Review (2008)
An Agency Functions and Finances Review (AFF
Review) of the Bureau conducted in 2008 made 31
recommendations. It concluded that the Bureau
had the financial resources to perform the
functions and deliver the services commissioned
by the Australian Government and expected by the
Australian community. It suggested that
implementing the recommendations would enable
the Bureau to operate within its allocated
resources. It proposed that as there had been
several recent reviews of the Bureau,
implementation of the recommendations should
be monitored. This ongoing monitoring of the
Bureau appears to have encouraged
improvements to its internal processes.
The AFF Review did not involve an in-depth
analysis of the Bureau’s handling of extreme
weather events, seasonal forecasting or related
processes. Nonetheless, many issues raised in that
review are still relevant and are highlighted below.
Priorities
The AFF Review suggested the Bureau maintain its
focus on delivering its priorities, namely:



operating a sustainable observing system and
delivering data that meet Australia’s needs;
safeguarding the community and advancing its
well-being through the delivery of forecasting
and warning services in meteorology,
hydrology and oceanography; and
creating an integrated national system of
water information serving government and
community needs.
The current Review has again highlighted that
these are core priorities for the Bureau but has
also identified that they are articulated in a way
that invites broad interpretation. Community
expectations rise quickly in response to any
improvement in service and thus Australia’s needs
are continually being redefined. Expectations are
also rising with respect to the Bureau’s role in
safeguarding the community, in line with a general
Chapter 3
rise in expectations of emergency management
services. It is not evident that these pressures can
be met simply by improvements in internal
processes.
Investments in technology improvements
The AFF Review noted that the Bureau justified ICT
investments by arguing that:


an investment in technology would create
efficiencies elsewhere in the organisation;
and/or
an investment in technology would improve
the accuracy of meteorological forecasting.
Such arguments were made in relation to the
introduction of the NexGen FWS in the 2009-10
Budget153. It was argued that the NexGen FWS
would “...provide additional time for forecasters to
focus on value-added activities such as the
prediction and monitoring of high impact weather
events” and “...allow forecasting offices to meet
current service demands they are experiencing
with recently reduced staff resources and capture
future efficiencies once the project is
completed.”154
The principal benefit of the
NexGen FWS has been to
achieve greater quality and
quantity of output.
Forecasters continue to spend
time editing the automated
text and images before they
are sent for publication.
However, this Review has concluded that the
principal benefit of the NexGen FWS has been to
achieve greater quality (measured by improved
resolution, now down to 6km grid) and quantity
(seven day forecast service provided nationally
rather than just for capital cities) of output. The
NexGen FWS also automatically produces text
forecasts and media ready graphics. However,
forecasters continue to spend time editing the
automated text and images before they are sent
for publication. The UK MetOffice has removed
forecaster intervention from its site specific
forecasts, thus enabling it to increase its weather
services from 450 to 5,000 sites across the United
Kingdom.155
While automation has enabled forecasting offices
to meet greater demand for day-to-day public
forecasting services with current staff levels, there
is no measurable evidence that it has freed up
forecaster time in a way that augments capacity to
respond to severe weather events. Nor is it clear
how future efficiencies would be derived once the
project is completed or whether rigorous process
engineering could yield much reduction in day-today labour requirements.
The AFF Review noted that technology solutions
do not entirely replace the requirement for human
involvement, and that the resultant increase in
maintenance and repair costs can have a net
negative financial effect on the Bureau. It was
suggested greater management attention was
warranted to ensure that planned benefits from
enhancement projects eventuate. It also raised
concerns that major ICT investments had not been
considered by Government (UK Unified Model,
ACCESS, supercomputer, NexGen FWS), or if
consideration was given, the proposed purchases
were not explicitly endorsed by government.
The AFF Review recommended the Bureau only
undertake new resource intensive projects once
they have been considered by government and
have adequate funding (including funding for
overheads and ongoing costs). This is simply good
governance. It is usual for an entity to be required
to refer major investment decisions to its owner
for approval and necessarily management should
not proceed with initiatives if their financial
sustainability is in doubt.
It recommended greater emphasis be placed on
managing ICT infrastructure and applications
through:



documentation of the Bureau’s ICT strategy;
preparation of an accurate asset register; and
rationalisation of applications installed on
Bureau systems.
The Bureau has since commenced implementing
these initiatives to strengthen ICT governance. For
example, it has now documented its ICT Strategy
and made a more accurate asset register.
However, even with strengthened decision-making
around future ICT investments and better
discipline regarding in-house application
development, challenges remain in managing the
legacy of previous decisions and in fulfilling current
commitments to complete the roll-out of the
NexGen FWS in all states by 2014.156 In particular,
events such as the recent UPS fire (see Section
2.3.2) highlight that there is a level of risk in terms
of business continuity and disaster recovery that
43
Chapter 3
may need to be addressed in tandem with any new
ICT investment.
There is scope to further rationalise the Bureau’s
ICT applications. Earlier this year the Bureau
reported that it was examining whether any
specific applications could be retired or
replaced.157 The Bureau was able to provide some
evidence of this rationalisation. For example, the
Bureau is introducing an Integrated Data Viewer
(IDV), essentially a new software application to
replace the current suite of legacy tools that are
used by the Bureau's forecasters to view the
extensive array of data sets in preparing forecasts
and warnings.
The Bureau indicated that the implementation of a
standard IDV is likely to result in productivity gains
including as a result of reductions in downtime in
the legacy software systems. It indicated potential
savings in ICT maintenance and support costs of up
to $477,000 per year.
The Bureau may need to take
some tough compliance
measures to achieve the
expected direct cost savings
from further rationalisation of
applications.
The lack of documented change processes and the
observed tendency of frontline forecasters to
customise their tools would indicate that it cannot
be taken for granted that these productivity gains
will be realised. The challenges involved in
resolving these issues should not be
underestimated and will take time. The Bureau
may also need to take some tough compliance
measures to achieve the expected direct cost
savings. Nevertheless, this Review encourages the
Bureau to persist with further rationalisation of
applications as part of a focus on standardising
processes and reducing variation, as this may
result in additional efficiencies. This will also result
in lower risk and reduced cost in the medium
term.
Water information
The AFF Review noted some significant delivery
challenges associated with the implementation of
the $450 million Improving Water Information
Program, particularly the development of the
Australian Water Resources Information System.
44
Further examination of this program reveals that
there are still risks associated with its
implementation.158 However, this Review has
identified that the new resources (principally
hydrologists) gained by the Bureau through this
program have provided greater flexibility to
support flood warning and forecasting during
extreme weather events. At the same time, the
program has introduced greater ambiguity in the
extent to which the Bureau is responsible for these
services – a matter not addressed by the AFF
Review.
Research
The AFF Review advised the Bureau to seek full
funding for any climate change research work
unless it is able to find offsetting savings from
other areas of its research portfolio. This has been
achieved to a large extent, as this part of the
research program is substantially funded by the
Australian Government Department of Climate
Change and Energy Efficiency and other partners
(approximately 60% externally funded).
Cost-recovery
The AFF Review suggested the Bureau adopt a
more rigorous approach to cost-recovery based on
a number of principles. While these principles are
generally sound and are being implemented by the
Bureau, they do not address the sensitive area of
cost-recovery from state government agencies.
Nor do they address the possibility that
improvements in seasonal forecasting services,
which may have a high economic value, could also
be cost-recovered.
Improvements made by the Bureau since
the AFF Review
The Bureau has implemented significant
improvements to its operations in response to the
AFF review and at the initiative of its Director,
particularly in relation to its governance of ICT,
assets, financial and risk management. These
efforts are paying off, delivering greater rigour to
the Bureau’s operations. However, many of the
governance improvements are still works in
progress and in the view of the Director, the
corporate functions of Bureau remain underdeveloped. This means that the Bureau’s executive
need to be selective in undertaking further
initiatives as there is likely to be a capacity
constraint in executive oversight and governance.
Chapter 3
Since 2008, the Bureau has
strengthened its governance
of ICT, assets, financial and
risk management. There is
still scope for improvement to
assist in mitigating the
Bureau’s main business risks.
The improvements being made may help the
Bureau to manage its resources in a more strategic
manner, allowing it to better prioritise its activities
and avoid it expanding beyond its natural fit. There
is still scope for the Bureau to further improve its
governance to assist in mitigating its main business
risks (such as business continuity and disaster
recovery).
3.1.3 Queensland Floods Commission of
Inquiry Interim Report (2011)
The Interim Report of the Queensland Floods
Commission of Inquiry made a number of
recommendations for which the Bureau has
implementation responsibility either in full or in
part. Some recommendations directed toward
Queensland State and local governments and
associated agencies may also require the Bureau’s
involvement. Further details are available in the
Australian Government’s response to the Interim
Report.159 Recommendations relevant to this
Review relate to:





the need to review the distribution and
number of river height and rainfall gauges in
the Brisbane area;
a desire for the Bureau to improve the clarity
of its warnings and the areas to which they
relate;
a desire for the Bureau to be more closely
involved in a range of state-based flood
preparedness activities;
the lack of capacity in some local councils to
interpret and communicate information from
the Bureau, particularly for flash floods; and
a desire for the Bureau to communicate more
directly with local councils in relation to flash
flood warnings.
In responding to the Inquiry the Australian
Government was mindful that the Bureau is
required to provide national services and have the
capacity to deal with priorities and extreme
weather situations as they occur anywhere across
Australia.
It is preferable for Bureau
service improvements that
respond to recommendations
from public inquiries to be
implemented consistently
across the country.
Where the Bureau is able to respond to service
improvements proposed by others, it is preferable
to develop a plan to implement them consistently
in its operations across the country. Failure to do
so draws the Bureau further into state specific
tailored arrangements, and limits the Bureau’s
ability to draw on staff located in other
jurisdictions (as ‘surge capacity’) for extreme
weather events. It also raises questions of interjurisdictional equity as there is not a clear
rationale for the Bureau to deliver different
standards of service in different parts of the
country.
The Inquiry has highlighted a real challenge for the
Bureau – that of managing increasing stakeholder
demands and expectations. For example, the
expectation that the Bureau will communicate
more closely with local councils (of which there are
70 in Queensland and approximately 560 across
Australia) is entirely at odds with the current
capacity of the Bureau’s regional offices.
Whilst it is understandable that many smaller
councils do not have the capacity to interpret and
add value to warnings provided by the Bureau or
to operate 24 hours per day, seven days per week,
it may not be a viable solution to expect the
Bureau to provide this service by communicating
directly with all local councils across Australia. In
October 2011 the Australian Government wrote to
all Queensland local councils to assure them that
the government is determined to ensure that
forecasting and warning services are provided in
the most appropriate and effective means possible
and will work closely with the Queensland
Government and Local Government Association of
Queensland to ensure that this occurs. Whilst this
assurance may have been welcomed by the local
councils, this situation does suggest that the
current emergency management model being
used in Queensland may need some refinement if
it is to make best use of the Bureau’s available
capacity.
The final report from the Inquiry is due in February
2012.
45
Chapter 3
3.1.4 Comrie Review Interim Report
The interim report of the Comrie Review into
recent flooding in Victoria raised some concerns
with the current legislation, policy and structures
that constitute the emergency management
framework in Victoria.160 It suggested that the
Victorian government should consider the benefit
of central coordination of its emergency service
agencies to allow for maximisation of capacity and
enhanced interoperability, training, resources and
an effective multi-agency response to future
emergency events facing the state.161 If adopted,
these recommendations would have some
implications for the arrangements in place
between the Bureau and Victoria’s emergency
service agencies.
Other concerns raised during consultation for the
Comrie Review included the lack of locally
relevant, informative flood advice and
information, difficulty in understanding the
terminology used in such information, difficulties
in information exchange and data collection, a
general desire for flood gauges/monitoring
systems and lack of clarity of roles and
responsibilities. Recommendations in the Comrie
Review’s final report responding to these concerns
are likely to place additional demands on the
Bureau and to have more general implications for
how flood information is managed.
The final report from the Comrie Review is due in
December 2011.
3.2 Gaps and inconsistencies in
services
The Bureau’s stakeholders reported generally high
levels of satisfaction with the Bureau’s delivery of
its current suite of services and commended the
personal commitment shown by Bureau staff.
However, many examples were cited where
expectations exceed what is currently being
delivered (for example, the expectation for
improvements to observing infrastructure in rural
Western Australia, including automated weather
stations) or is likely to be delivered (for example,
precise seasonal forecasting information with fine
scale resolution). These examples of mismatched
expectations and the analysis in Section 3.1 have
led the Review to consider what gaps may need to
be addressed in the future.
3.2.1 Extreme weather services
The Review identified a number of gaps and
inconsistencies relating to the Bureau’s extreme
weather services including:
46






the expressed need for more targeted and
accessible information during extreme
weather events;
the ability of the Bureau to maintain services
24 hours per day, seven days per week during
the course of extreme events;
the extent to which services provided to state
agencies are covered by an explicit service
level agreement or memorandum of
understanding;
the extent to which services for state agencies
are consistently cost-recovered (for example,
fire services);
the lack of a national directive for fire weather
services; and
poor coordination of spot forecasts for fires.
The Review has presented options to address
these gaps and inconsistencies under Chapter 4.
These include the introduction of improved
processes and the creation of new national
extreme weather centres for fire and marine
weather.
3.2.2 Floods
The Review also identified a number of gaps and
inconsistencies relating to the Bureau’s flood
services, including: inconsistencies in
arrangements for issuing, interpreting and
disseminating flood warnings; gaps and
inconsistencies in the management of, and
accessibility to, quality flood information, including
flood risk maps; inconsistencies in responsibility
for and issuing of flash flood warnings; and gaps in
the flood gauge networks, including in their
maintenance and management. These are
discussed in further detail below.
Issuing, interpreting and disseminating
flood warnings
Arrangements for issuing, interpreting and
disseminating flood warnings have developed in an
ad-hoc manner.
There are significant
variations between
jurisdictions in the
arrangements for issuing,
interpreting and
disseminating flood warnings.
This issue was raised consistently by emergency
service representatives in interviews for this
Chapter 3
Review. Significant variations and peculiarities
exist between jurisdictions. For example:






in the Melbourne Metropolitan area (Port
Phillip and Westernport basins), flood
warnings are prepared by Melbourne Water,
and disseminated by the Bureau;
in the Northern Territory, flood warnings and
forecasts are prepared and disseminated by
the Natural Resources, Environment, The Arts
and Sport Department (NRETAS). A transition
of some of these responsibilities to the Bureau
is under negotiation, but NRETAS will continue
to be responsible for flash flood warnings near
Alice Springs;
in South Australia, flood warnings and
forecasts for the River Murray are prepared by
the South Australian Department for Water;
in Western Australia, the Department of
Water and Department of Main Roads
maintain a limited flood forecasting and
warning capability that overlaps with the
Bureau’s;
various councils maintain some level of
expertise in flood warning and forecasting
that is drawn upon in flood events, and this
has created confusion on some occasions; and
by general agreement, local councils are
responsible for flash flood warnings but this
arrangement does not appear to be well
codified in all areas.
Option 4 in Chapter 4 is aimed at addressing these
gaps.
Management of, and accessibility to,
quality flood information including flood
risks maps
Australia does not have a nationally consistent
approach to flood risk mapping. There are many
different organisations involved in this space; and
accessibility and the quality of information are
highly variable.
announced it will develop a flood risk information
portal, hosted by Geoscience Australia, to provide
a single access point to existing flood mapping
data. The Commonwealth will drive this process in
close consultation with state and territory
governments.
Responsibility for and issuing of flash
flood warnings
There is a high level of confusion surrounding who
(if anyone) is responsible for issuing flash flooding
warnings and variation in arrangements across
jurisdictions. Generally the Bureau issues a severe
weather warning which highlights weather
conditions that could lead to flash flooding in a
particular district, rather than a specific flash
flooding warning. However, in New South Wales
the Bureau does issue flash flood warnings for an
agreed group of gauged rivers.
Since the late 1980s, the Bureau has worked
closely with many local governments to establish
Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time (ALERT)
systems, originally developed by the United States
National Weather Service. These are essentially
networks of rainfall and river height field stations
located in the catchments and reporting via VHF
radio to a base station computer in a state
emergency service agency or local council office
(the arrangements vary between jurisdictions).
The information is also provided to the Bureau, for
use in flood forecasting models and for publication
on the Bureau website. The method of
dissemination of this information by the relevant
state agency or local council to their own staff and
to the public varies between jurisdictions. The
Bureau provides the base station software, free of
charge, and includes training in its use and other
technical support as appropriate.
Effective flash flood
forecasting (with useful lead
times) is one of the most
challenging areas in
hydrology.
Flood risk mapping information is a very useful
tool for planning and flood preparedness to
enhance awareness of high flood risk areas, assist
prediction of flood occurrence and magnitude and
ensure that appropriate and targeted warnings are
delivered to affected communities.
Currently, the national role in flood risk mapping is
limited. The Review has identified a strong
community expectation that the way in which
flood risk mapping is undertaken and
communicated be improved. This issue was
identified in the Natural Disaster Insurance
Review. The Australian Government has
There are number of challenges and limitations
associated with flash flood forecasting. A recent
review162 of advances in flash flood forecasting has
indicated that:

effective flash flood forecasting (with useful
lead times) is one of the most challenging
areas in hydrology, particularly due to the
47
Chapter 3



uncertainties associated with rainfall
forecasts;
flash floods usually occur in small catchments
(less than 300km2) that are poorly gauged or
ungauged, thus remote sensed data is
particularly useful for hydrological modelling
in such catchments;
urban areas are highly vulnerable to flash
floods, mainly due to the existence of large
impervious areas (exacerbated by population
growth and climate change); and
there is no existing model capable of making
reliable flash flood forecasts in urban
watersheds.
The limitations of the Bureau’s current flood
forecasting system for use in the flash flooding
context were recently considered by
Dr Phillip Jordan, an independent hydrological
expert for the Queensland Floods Commission of
Inquiry. He concluded that the system used by the
Bureau for forecasting of non-flash floods is not
suitable in its current form for flash flood
forecasting.163 He indicated that to provide a site
specific flash flood warning service would require
different systems (see Box 8).164
Box 8 - Hydrological advice to the Queensland Floods
Commission of Inquiry
Dr Jordan advised that “the existing
modelling approach used by the Bureau is
currently unsuitable for flash flood
warning because:
• The current system requires too much
manual intervention by flood forecasters
to be workable for providing customised
flash forecasts for a very large number of
small catchment areas;
• The system lacks automated input of
quantitative rainfall estimates from radar
that have been ground calibrated using the
reporting rain gauge network;
• Manual intervention is required to insert
quantitative rainfall forecasts for each
catchment; and
• Forecasts produced by the modelling
system need to be manually interpreted
and converted into a warning”.
48
Dr Jordan suggested that “an effective
flash flood warning system would need to
overcome the above limitations.
Specifically a flash flood warning system
providing useful lead times would require:
• A greater degree of automation, with
model runs initiated automatically at a
regular frequency without any forecaster
intervention;
• Consideration of the possible
implementation of a different hydrological
model, such as a spatially distributed
model, more amenable to automated
production of accurate forecasts for small
catchments without forecaster
intervention;
• Spatially and temporally distributed
quantitative rainfall estimates, which are
most likely to be obtained from a
combination of weather radar and
reporting rain gauges;
• Insertion of quantitative rainfall
forecasts with limited or no manual
intervention; and
• Automated production of pro-forma
forecasts and warnings for specific
locations, with appropriate systems put in
place for the forecaster to review and
approve the automated warning prior to
its issue”.
He also advised that “a significant
investment would be required to develop,
implement, operate and maintain an
effective and specific flash flood warning
system for Australia as outlined above.
He commented that “It is unlikely for most
places in Australia that any organisation,
other than the Bureau, could invest the
resources required to develop and
maintain the institutional capacity
required to operate an effective flash flood
warning system for their jurisdiction”.
Chapter 3
This is consistent with comments made by the
United States meteorological expert who was
consulted for this Review. He indicated that:
“a viable flash flood forecasting system will require
the automatic fusion of high quality precipitation
observations from rain gauges, radar networks,
and satellite information. The multi-sensor
precipitation estimates serve as essential inputs for
the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced
by weather models and expert forecasters. Realtime access to soil conditions and geo-referenced
information about small basin topography also are
required.”165
Gaps in flood gauge network
There are gaps in the Bureau’s maintained river
and rainfall gauge network. Though most of the
major rivers in Australia are covered, there are
many examples of catchments where gauging is
inadequate or non-existent, such as in the
Wimmera Mallee area of Victoria and large parts
of Western Australia. As well as this, many smaller
rivers which flow through significant communities
are not monitored by the Bureau.166 This means
that, when heavy rain falls, warnings of floods are
not given for these rivers. There are also gaps in
the coverage of automatic rainfall and river level
gauges. Automatic gauges enable data to be
collected and transmitted to the Bureau in realtime.167 Without automatic data collection, gauges
showing flood level waters must be read manually.
During an extreme event, this may not occur in
time to issue warnings for settlements
downstream.
Over the last ten years a
number of Australian
Government programs have
made funding available to the
states and local councils for
the establishment of
monitoring networks.
However, not all catchments
and rivers are monitored.
Over the last ten years a number of Australian
Government programs have made funding
available to the states and local councils for the
establishment of monitoring networks. Through
the Modernisation and Extension of Hydrologic
Monitoring Systems Program, the Bureau has
provided financial assistance to assist water
information managers named in the Water
Regulations 2008 to modernise and extend their
hydrological monitoring, data capture, transfer
and data management systems. This is aimed at
improving the accuracy, currency and
comprehensiveness of the hydrological data that
the Bureau receives.168
However, in recent years many Australian
Government programs have been broadened to
cover all natural disasters, which may have
resulted in some states prioritising other hazards
above floods, and therefore spending less on their
flood monitoring networks. The Bureau has
commented that decisions made by the states and
local councils to expand their networks can also
result in unplanned costs for the Bureau. Generally
its advice will be sought on location, installation
and maintenance. While this is desirable in terms
of quality of outcome, it does make extra demands
on scarce Bureau resources.
3.2.3 Seasonal forecasting services
The major gaps and inconsistencies identified by
the Review in relation to seasonal forecasting
services generally related to the level of detail,
accuracy and localisation of data.
Seasonal forecasts have improved a great deal
since their introduction in 1989. Some
stakeholders indicated they are satisfied with the
current level of service.169 However, some sectors
pointed to a need for more detailed, accurate and
localised data to enable better decision-making
and risk management.
Reliable seasonal forecasting has considerable
potential to deliver tangible benefits for planning
business operations in agriculture and other
industry and government sectors. The benefits
already being captured would be enhanced
through improved seasonal forecasting,
clarification and education on the appropriate
interpretation and application of forecasts and,
accordingly, increased user confidence in what
seasonal forecasts do (and do not) offer.
The Bureau has reported that recent international
scientific advances and computing improvements
have increased the potential for substantial skill
improvements and greater resolution in seasonal
forecasts.170 Increased supercomputing enables
the Bureau to run complicated dynamical seasonal
prediction models which take into account the
interaction of the atmosphere, land surface and
ocean. As described in Section 1.2.5, the Bureau is
using an experimental dynamical seasonal climate
outlook model as part of its POAMA-2 system,
49
Chapter 3
which it is currently unable to implement on an
ongoing operational basis due to resource
constraints. This model has shown improvements
on the current statistical seasonal climate outlook
model, but it is not as good as the best of the
international models already available.
A step change in the Bureau’s
seasonal forecasting capability
would require significant
investment.
As described in Section 1.2.5, the quality of the
Bureau’s seasonal forecast products and services
will only improve incrementally based on current
resourcing, and could be inferior to those of other
international meteorological agencies by 2020. A
step change in the Bureau’s seasonal forecasting
capability would require significant investment in
the Bureau’s POAMA system. This would include
funding for a large amount of research and
development to enable the POAMA system to
assimilate and account for a broader range of
climate information and variables, as well as
investing in the necessary observational systems in
the ocean, atmosphere and land, such as
additional ocean buoys and better utilisation of
satellite data. This step change would also require
investment in the Bureau’s supercomputing
capacity to run the advanced POAMA system.
Chapter 4 provides an option to address these
gaps in seasonal forecasting at Option 28, and an
option for improved supercomputing is provided
at Option 27.
3.3 Delivery risks
The Bureau operates in an environment that is
inherently associated with high levels of risk. It is
wholly responsible, in part responsible, or
perceived to be responsible for a number of risks
that, if realised, could trigger significant
consequences for the Bureau, the Australian
Government and their stakeholders.
Because it delivers high volume services in tight
timeframes, the Bureau would be expected to
have a particularly low tolerance for business
continuity risks or for risks associated with its
ability to deliver services at times of peak demand.
The Bureau’s risk handbook describes its risk
categories and the potential sources of those
risks.171 Table 13 provides the Bureau’s description
of the types of risks to which the Bureau is
exposed (grouped by categories used in the risk
handbook) relevant to the Review’s terms of
reference.
A recent risk audit found that the Bureau was
meeting its risk targets and maturity goals and has
a clear process for identifying, assessing and
treating risks, in line with best practice
standards.172 While this finding reflects positively
on the Bureau’s organisational approach to risk
management, it does not alleviate concerns
(repeatedly raised by the Bureau) regarding the
high levels of residual risk173 it is carrying.
3.3.1 Stress test
In 2009, following the Black Saturday bushfires,
the Bureau undertook an exercise (‘stress test’) to
Table 13 - Categories of delivery risks
Risk Category
Risk
Operational
Reliance on third party information to make flood warning decisions that is often not up to the standard
required by the Bureau and can be unreliable. Lack of clarity surrounding the Bureau’s role in extreme
weather event services. Significant demands from the media.
Lack of clear accountability mechanisms and defined processes.
Ownership or perceived ownership of risks that are beyond its ability to treat within current resources.
Staff working long hours and under extreme levels of pressure during extreme weather events.
Current supercomputing capacity and its inability to support the Bureau’s current suite of services
beyond 2013, and ICT business continuity. Reduced capacity to house and secure information
technology infrastructure.
Ability to cost recover services provided. Ability to manage external stakeholder relationships and
expectations. Potential for future extreme events diminishing the Bureau’s reputation. Natural hazards,
such as floods, fire, earthquakes, storms, landslides, lightning, hail, drought – weakness relates to their
ability to extend beyond Bureau’s current capability and capacity and cause a critical failure.
Injury to staff, contractors and customers including accidents, injuries and death.
Potentially unsafe working conditions, inappropriate working practices.
Strategic
Resource
External
Occupational
Health and
Safety (OHS)
50
Chapter 3
test the limits of the Bureau’s existing risk
treatment strategies under simultaneous and
sustained severe weather events. The exercise
highlighted a number of business continuity risks
and points of potential failure (see Box 9) through
simulating a number of hypothetical extreme
events impacting the country simultaneously.
In 2009 the Bureau conducted
a ‘stress test’ which
highlighted a number of
business continuity risks and
points of potential failure.
In response, the Bureau introduced short term
treatments to address these risks. This involved
temporarily reallocating resources towards the
weather and flood services from other functions
within the organisation.
According to the Bureau, the events that occurred
in the 2010-11 summer season exceeded the
seriousness of the most extreme scenario
contemplated under the 2009 stress test, placing
the Bureau’s staff and systems under serious levels
of pressure. During this challenging period, the
Bureau experienced:

increased operational pressure on all systems
(observations, forecasts, ICT and
communications);





flying squad staff moving across several states
and back again to handle home-state events;
increased pressure from emergency managers
for additional information to assist with
decision-making (for example, evacuations,
dam releases and equipment logistics);
extreme and unreasonable working hours for
operational staff in particular, leading to
occupational health and safety concerns,
fatigue and increased risk of error;
extended demands from the Australian and
state governments for detailed briefings; and
immense public demand for information and
warning advice.
3.3.2 Priority risks requiring early
attention
The Bureau’s concerns about its ability to manage
risk (particularly residual or external risk) and the
realisation of major risks during the events of
2010-11, have caused the Review to reflect on the
risks requiring early attention.
There are a number of risks to
the sustainability of the Bureau
over the short to medium term.
Options for addressing these
risks are discussed in Chapter 4.
Box 9- Stress test-induced staffing requirements
51
Chapter 3
They are:





an over reliance on a small number of
meteorologists, hydrologists and other critical
staff to deliver key services, particularly during
protracted extreme weather events;
confusion outside of the Bureau regarding the
role of the Bureau in developing, issuing and
disseminating flood forecasts and warnings;
dependence on third party information for
flood warning services that is not always
timely or reliable;
an inability to adequately resource certain
services and associated activities due to
conflicting organisational priorities; and
an inability to implement nationally consistent
services due to conflicting jurisdictional
requirements.
3.3.3 Mitigation activities for the 201112 summer season
The Review notes that ahead of the 2011-12
summer season the Bureau has identified a
number of measures it will or has taken to mitigate
these risks within existing resources, including:








retaining a number of international
meteorologists;
bringing out fire forecasters from the United
States under reciprocal arrangements;
encouraging regional and Head Office staff to
take leave outside the peak season;
drawing on the severe weather support group
from Head Office and regional staff in nonaffected regions to create flying squads to
assist regions as needs arise;
conducting pre-season inspections, repairs
and maintenance of observing systems
including its flood warning gauges to ensure
that the equipment is fully functional;
providing competency training for new staff
and other staff to expand the pool of potential
support staff;
recruiting new staff for the Queensland
regional office, having the Queensland
Regional Office's retired former senior
hydrologist available on stand-by and filling
vacant positions in other regions; and
conducting pre-season road shows that have
raised awareness among state emergency
services agencies and key stakeholders.
While these measures demonstrate the Bureau
has contingency plans in place, they also highlight
that it has limited further reserves on which to
draw. A more sustainable long term position
requires some additional bolstering of capacity.
52
Chapter 4 Practical Steps
4.1 Overview
4.1.1 Treatment of Priority Actions and
options
The focus of this Review is on the Bureau’s
capacity to deliver extreme weather and seasonal
forecasting services. The previous chapters have
identified both unmet demand and supply
constraints, which are manifested in various risks
to the sustainability of the Bureau’s operations.
The Review has identified a range of options,
which have been classified as follows:





Recommended priority actions to mitigate
risks requiring early attention;
Recommended priority actions that involve
strategic choices for government;
Recommended priority actions for the Bureau
to support consistent service standards and
build organisational resilience;
Options that could provide savings, enhance
efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau;
and
Options to provide enhanced services where
there is proven demand.
While some of the options can be implemented by
the Bureau on its own initiative, most are
presented for consideration by the Australian
Government. The government’s preferred course
of action will depend on its own view as to the
strategic direction of the Bureau and other criteria,
including budget and the extent to which the
Australian Government is extending its role in
emergency management. In addition, some of the
options presented will require action by other
parties, noting that many of the Bureau’s functions
are delivered in collaboration with other agencies.
A number of the options build on others so that a
range of combinations is possible, depending on
the fundamental view of the strategic direction in
which the Bureau should head. Specific
consideration should be given to the need for
orderly change management processes and the
benefits of careful sequencing of related actions.
Importantly, implementation, even of the priority
actions, will need to be staged over a two to three
year period to allow adequate time to build up the
capacity and for planning and consultation.
Likewise, it would be prudent to limit the number
of initiatives that are on foot at any one time so
that sufficient executive oversight of each initiative
may be maintained.
The Review acknowledges that many of these
options will require funding, through internal cost
saving exercises or supplementation. The cost
estimates provided for each option are only
indicative, based on information provided by the
Bureau. They have not been independently
assessed by the Review. Further consideration of
any of these options would require rigorous cost
benefit analysis (as expected in the budget
process). The Review also recommends that the
provision of any new resources should be
conditional on implementation of process
improvements, agreed reprioritisations and
continuing implementation of the improvements
resulting from the AFF Review.
4.1.2 Recommended priority actions to
mitigate risks requiring early attention
The Review recommends that the highest priority
be given to reducing the Bureau’s over reliance on
a small number of frontline staff to deliver key
services, particularly during protracted extreme
weather events. Practically speaking, this does
require an investment to build up the number of
people who can fill these roles. It will take time to
replicate the depth of experience and relationship
skills of the handful of individuals who lead these
functions at present. For this reason, the Review is
recommending an early boost to the number of
frontline meteorologists and hydrologists in the
Bureau’s regional offices, potentially commencing
in the 2012-13 financial year (with additional staff
phased in over subsequent years). This could be
followed by additional improvement measures
suggested by the Bureau, including some
organisational changes, as discussed under
‘Options to provide enhanced services where there
is proven demand’.
Another early priority should be the establishment
of clear service level agreements with key
stakeholders. This is critical to enable the Bureau
to establish service boundaries and manage
expectations as demands for additional, valueadding services increase. The rigour implied by the
United Kingdom’s funding model (where additional
services are only provided on the basis of an
explicitly costed agreement) may be a useful
precedent for the Bureau to follow.
4.1.3 Recommended priority actions that
involve strategic choices for government
The Review has identified the need to address
confusion regarding the role of the Bureau in
developing, issuing and disseminating flood
forecasts and warnings. While the Bureau itself is
clear about the delineation of roles, current
53
Chapter 4
arrangements are complex and inconsistent across
regions. They are not well documented or founded
in any formal intergovernmental agreement. At
the minimum, this requires more extensive
communication and reinforcement of the
responsibilities of third parties to play their part,
such as the maintenance of flood gauges.
While germane to the findings of this Review, the
national arrangements for flood management are
beyond its terms of reference. Nevertheless,
because of the significance of the issues raised in
the course of the Review, some additional options
have been identified which governments may wish
to consider. Some of these options would require a
decision by the Australian Government to take on
responsibilities that currently rest with the other
tiers of government but arguably are not being
discharged as effectively as the community
expects.
Given the recent announcement by the Australian
Government that it will establish a flood risk
information portal to be hosted by Geoscience
Australia, a collaborative approach between
Geoscience Australia and the Bureau (similar to
that in place for Tsunami) is worthy of
consideration. Under such an approach,
Geoscience Australia would be responsible for
static flood risk mapping, and the Bureau for
dynamic modelling during flood events.
The Review has noted that recent decisions by the
government have broadened the scope of the
Bureau’s activities beyond traditional
meteorological services. This has included
significant investments in water information and
to develop a National Plan for Environmental
Information (NPEI). The Review has identified
options for reprioritisation of resources to give
greater priority to traditional meteorological and
public safety outcomes, in recognition of the
changing nature of weather related risks and the
increase in community expectations of
government in this regard.
The Review recognises that narrowing the
Bureau’s focus too far would represent a
significant reversal of direction for the Bureau and
would require some potentially unpalatable
decisions to reduce services in some areas. A
middle ground option worth considering would be
to focus the Bureau’s evolving environmental
information role on natural hazards in the first
instance. This would align well with the general
trend in emergency service provision towards an
all-hazards approach and is anticipated in Bureau
initiatives such as the planned introduction of an
integrated all-hazards decision system.
54
Finally, the Review notes that the Bureau is facing
significant investment requirements in both
storage and processing computer capacity by 2014
(even on a standstill basis). As the Bureau’s current
supercomputer is not due to be upgraded until
2015, it is vital that the planning for this major
project commences now and that the Bureau
engages the expertise of the Department of
Finance and Deregulation to assist with the
development of the required bid for capital
funding.
4.1.4 Recommended priority actions for
the Bureau to support consistent service
standards and build organisational
resilience
Although the Bureau is implementing a range of
improvements to its internal governance
arrangements both in response to previous
reviews and at the initiative of its Director, this
Review has identified the need to continue
implementing these improvements, including to
complete its workforce planning project and
succession plans for key staff. Efficient and
effective corporate support systems and business
processes are critical to the resilience of the
Bureau in maintaining consistently high quality,
high volume services and to meet the challenges
of both underlying growth and increasing
variability in demand.
4.1.5 Options that could provide savings,
enhance efficiency or increase revenue
for the Bureau
A range of options are presented that could result
in savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue
for the Bureau. Some of these savings
opportunities might be unpalatable to government
or to interests not considered in scope for this
Review. The Review accepts the Bureau’s
contention that the most straightforward savings
options have already been implemented to deliver
the efficiency dividend. Any savings of scale would
have implications for some customer groups or for
the long term sustainability of the Bureau’s
operations and therefore might need to be
reversed in future budget periods. Cutting back on
research is an example of this. Some involve large
scale business configuration changes or services
ceasing and therefore would incur implementation
costs. However, the Review has noted similar
changes are being progressed by other
meteorological agencies internationally to provide
savings, for example greater automation and
outsourcing of observations. These options should
not be overlooked.
Chapter 4
4.1.6 Options to provide enhanced
services where there is proven demand
The Review has identified a range of options to
boost the Bureau’s capacity to deliver enhanced
services for which there is proven demand. These
options would require either a targeted injection
of funding or to be offset by savings or costrecovery.
Many of the options presented in this section
would require significant investment in staff
resources or capital assets. They are included as
having potentially large benefits in the context of
the stakeholder interests identified in this Review
and to give an indication of the level of investment
that might be required to satisfy their preferences.
The Bureau may wish to develop these options for
further consideration, in which case detailed
analysis of both costs and benefits would be
required.
55
Action required from:
Priority Action 1: Boost the number of frontline meteorologists to build response capacity in regional forecasting
centres
Priority Action 2: Boost the Bureau’s flood warning capacity by:
(a) Increasing the number of frontline hydrologists
(b) Upgrading the flood monitoring system
Priority Action 3: Formalise and standardise service levels provided to emergency services
Recommended priority actions that involve strategic choices for government
Priority Action 4: Agree clear allocation of responsibilities to state and local government for flood management,
with defined boundaries on the Bureau’s role and:
(a) As a minimum:
(i) Agree national standards for operation of flood monitoring networks and vest responsibility in fewer
agencies
(ii) Clarify roles and responsibilities for issuing flash flood warnings
(b) And either:
(i) Focus the Bureau’s role on data management and divest responsibility for flood monitoring
infrastructure from the Bureau; or
(ii) Expand and consolidate the Bureau’s role in flood management by:
(a)
Re-organising operations (including a new Flood Operations Centre)
(b)
Enhancing the Bureau’s flood monitoring network
(c)
Strengthening the collection and provision of flood data by third parties
(d)
Improving the information base for flood warnings, including access to flood risk maps
Priority Action 5: Focus the Bureau’s evolving environmental information role on natural hazards in the first
instance
Priority Action 6: Explore opportunities to re-phase investments in large scale projects and programs such as the
Strategic Radar Enhancement Program, the NexGen Forecast and Warning System Products and the Improving
Water Information Program
Recommended priority actions for the Bureau to support consistent service standards and build organisational resilience
Priority Action 7: Complete workforce planning project and succession plans as a matter of urgency
Priority Action 8: Firm up approval processes and funding for any departures from provision of the basic product
set
Priority Action 9: Ensure the Bureau puts in place necessary planning and governance arrangements to develop its
bid for capital funding to maintain its critical supercomputing capacity
Priority Action 10: Extend ICT governance arrangements to all applications and subject in-house development to
rigorous approval processes
Priority Action 11: Review disaster recovery and business continuity plans
Priority Action 12: Start a project to introduce organisational process thinking with a view to standardising
processes and product specifications
56
Other Parties
Recommended priority actions to mitigate risks requiring early attention
State
Government
Australian
Government
Bureau
Recommended Priority Actions and Options
Chapter 4
Priority Action 13: Focus leadership practices to re-orient culture away from customisation and experimentation
and towards reliable, efficient and consistent documented processes
Options that could provide savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau
Option 14: Increased automation and outsourcing of observations
Option 15: Explore options to limit forecaster intervention in site-specific web forecasts
Option 16: Centralise media services and establish protocols for media activity
Option 17: Foster private sector service providers who can offer tailored services or broadcast high quality
presentation of general purpose weather information
Option 18: Review level of investment in research activities to free up budget and reduce pressure on computing
capacity
Option 19: Review and rebalance relative investment in long term climate modelling and medium-term seasonal
outlook
Option 20: Cease or reduce the Ionospheric Prediction Service or offer it as a commercial service
Option 21: Apply a consistent cost-recovery model to all services delivered to state/territory fire agencies
Option 22: Explore options to obtain revenue from advertising on the Bureau’s website
Option 23: Phase out seasonal prediction development and modelling and rely on products generated elsewhere
Option 24: Fund delivery of improved seasonal forecasting services by:
(c) Identifying potential offsets from government beneficiaries of any additional investment in seasonal
forecasting services
(d) Undertaking market research to establish industry willingness to pay for enhanced seasonal forecasting
services
Option 25: Lower yield options identified by the Bureau
(a) Reduce staffing at remote observing stations
(b) Close the training facility at Broadmeadows, Victoria
(c) Consolidate forecasting functions for Northern Queensland
(d) Outsource the Bureau’s library
Options to provide enhanced services where there is proven demand
Option 26: Additional frontline meteorologists and specialised centres and systems
(a) Enhanced severe weather units
(b) National extreme weather centres
(c) Integrated all-hazards decision system
(d) Enhanced observation network
Option 27: Upgrade to the Bureau’s supercomputing capacity
(a) Status quo
(b) Step change
(c) Further enhancements
Option 28: Improved seasonal forecasting capabilities
(a) Improved presentation of existing products
(b) Enhanced capability – keeping pace with international standards
Option 29: Explore use of social media to enhance data gathering from authorised and informal sources and to
disseminate weather information
57
4.2 Recommended priority
actions to mitigate risks
requiring early attention
Priority Action 1: Boost the number of
frontline meteorologists to build
response capacity in regional forecasting
centres
Currently two to three meteorologists are
responsible for monitoring the weather and issuing
public and marine warnings in each of the Bureau’s
regional forecasting centres. During the day, each
forecasting office comprises a Senior
Meteorologist and a duty Meteorologist covering
public and marine forecast and warnings.
Overnight, this same forecast and warning
responsibility rests with one Senior Meteorologist.
In addition, during weekdays each regional
forecasting centre is managed by a Supervising
Meteorologist and there are two severe weather
specialists who can provide some additional shift
capacity during the summer period and during
extreme weather events.
In total, the Bureau’s current budget for its
extreme weather forecasting services allows for a
total of 76 meteorologists in ongoing frontline
positions, including 14 extreme weather experts.
This equates to between nine to 12 meteorologists
in each regional forecasting centre. The Bureau
also has another 12 meteorologists in its Head
Office in support roles that are available to be
called upon during extreme weather events. As the
Bureau is required to provide a 24 hours per day,
seven days per week service, the raw staff
numbers do not give a clear picture of actual staff
available during a day or night. This is because it
typically requires more than five paid staff to
maintain a 24 hour shift around the clock for every
day of the year.
By comparison, Canada employs 227
meteorologists across its seven regional offices.
These staff have similar scope in responsibility,
serve a nation of roughly the same size as
Australia, and operate under comparable
governance arrangements. In Canada seven people
are rostered to provide one 24/7 desk. This
includes a 20% allowance for training and
development as per the management agreement,
as well as allowing for annual leave and other paid
leave.
The Bureau’s current staffing levels, at around five
per 24 hour shift position, inhibit its capacity to
provide a timely and effective extreme weather
forecasting and warning service. As described in
58
Section 2.1.2, the Bureau’s regional staff are often
required to work unsustainably long hours to
maintain these services, particularly during
sustained extreme weather events. In addition,
meteorologists are facing other challenges and
limitations as a result of these staffing constraints,
described below.




No public and marine forecast and warnings
meteorologists work overnight in any of the
regional forecasting centres, leaving all the
severe weather monitoring responsibilities to
one Senior Meteorologist. This restricts Senior
Meteorologists’ ability to adequately train
other staff, supervise all operations (aviation,
marine and public weather) in their regional
forecasting centre, and to liaise with
emergency services and media during the
peak morning news cycle.
The current staffing levels of five senior
meteorologists to one 24 hour position do not
allow appropriate periods of training, staff
performance management and other
important functions associated with a senior
position.
Because of the need to maintain operations,
meteorologists have a limited capacity to
access training. Training is important for
meteorologists as it enables them to enhance
their scientific, technical and management
capabilities. For example, this includes
developing their capacity to perform during
high stress and demand situations, liaise with
the media, and to stay abreast of international
developments in the science of meteorology.
The Bureau reported that in 2010-11, it was
only able to provide an average of five days
training for each meteorologist, while
forecasters in the United States receive over
30 days of specialist skills training per year.
The Bureau currently provides limited on-thejob training for its graduate meteorologists.
Following their graduation from the Bureau’s
Graduate Diploma in Meteorology course,
current staffing levels mean that
meteorologists are required to transition into
operational forecasting roles more quickly
than desired. Previously, graduates were
provided with additional on-the-job training to
ensure they were sufficiently experienced and
skilled to be effective operational forecasters.
However, this training was ceased by the
Bureau as part of efforts to reduce costs.
These constraints, combined with the demands
placed on the Bureau during recent extreme
weather events, suggest that the Bureau is at the
limit of its human capacity to provide a sustainable
Chapter 4
extreme weather forecasting and warning service.
This creates risk for the Bureau, the government
and the public. There are limited ways to reduce
the level of risk without making more people
available to serve on the frontline.
The presence of a group of internationally
recruited meteorologists (some engaged on short
term contracts as part of the NexGen FWS project)
did boost the Bureau’s surge capacity during
recent severe weather events. The Bureau has
advised that their contracts will not be renewed
unless additional budget provision is made.
Retention of some of these contractors is in train
as a contingency measure for the 2011-12 summer
period (as outlined in Section 3.3.3). While this reallocation of human resource was expedient, it has
had knock-on effects, slowing down the roll-out of
NexGen FWS and leaving a probable budget
shortfall in future years as the project nears
completion.
In light of these constraints and risks, it is
proposed that the number of frontline
meteorologists be increased by 42, from 76 to 118,
and that three staff be added to the Bureau’s Head
Office. As reflected in Table 14 below, this would
typically provide for an increase of three additional
meteorologist per week for night shifts in each
regional forecasting centre, plus one Senior
Meteorologist and two trainees per week for day
shifts, which equates to an average of an
additional 1 meteorologist for night shifts, 0.3 of a
Senior Meteorologist and 0.6 of a trainee over the
entire year (based on a more normal requirement
of six paid staff to maintain a 24 hour shift).
Importantly, these additional staff would provide
essential surge capacity and would ensure more
sustainable staffing levels, as the total number of
staff supporting each 24 hour shift would increase
above the minimum requirement of five. The
benefits of this proposed action are outlined
below.



It would provide greater coverage of weather
services at night, assisting with the detection
of and response to extreme events. This
proposed action would add one public and
marine forecast and warnings meteorologist
to the night shift in each regional forecasting
centre. This would enable the Senior
Meteorologists to spend more time training
other staff, supervising all operations
(aviation, marine and public weather) in their
regional forecasting centre, and to liaise with
emergency services and media during the
peak morning news cycle.
It would enable improved access to training.
This proposed action would supplement the
current number of Senior Meteorologists by
adding one Senior Meteorologist to each
regional forecasting centre. This would free up
the time available for meteorologists to access
training to enhance their scientific, technical
and management capabilities; and allow them
adequate time to complete important
management and administrative tasks.
It would restore the Bureau’s capacity to
provide adequate on-the-job training to its
graduate meteorologists as Trainee
Meteorologists. This proposed action would
add two Trainee Meteorologist’s to each
regional forecasting centre. These Trainees
would be transitioned into operational
forecaster roles following a sufficient period of
on-the-job training. The increased number of
Senior Meteorologists would assist in this
regard, as they would manage this training
and assess staff competencies. This proposed
Table 14 - Proposed boost to frontline meteorologist staff to address risks requiring early attention
Region
Current total staff
+ Overnight shift
meteorologists
+ Senior
meteorologists
+ Trainee
meteorologists
New Total
SA
10 (2D+1N)
3 (1N)
1 (0.3D)
2 (0.7D)
16 (3D+2N)
Tas/Ant
9 (2D+0.5N)
3 (1N)
1 (0.3D)
2 (0.7D)
15 (3D+1.5N)
NSW
12 (3D+1N)
3 (1N)
1 (0.3D)
2 (0.7D)
18 (4D+2N)
Qld
12 (3D+1N)
3 (1N)
1 (0.3D)
2 (0.7D)
18 (4D+2N)
WA
11 (3D+1N)
3 (1N)
1 (0.3D)
2 (0.7D)
17 (4D+2N)
Vic
11 (2D+1N)
3 (1N)
1 (0.3D)
2 (0.7D)
17 (3D+2N)
NT
11 (2.5D+1N)
3 (1N)
1 (0.3D)
2 (0.7D)
17 (3.5D+2N)
76
21
7
14
118
Total
Note: The numbers in brackets relate to the average actual staff covering for either a day (D) or night (N) shift. This is based
on staffing numbers required to cover a 24 hour shift. The numbers above include the 14 extreme weather experts that are
available to be called upon during extreme weather events.
59
Chapter 4
action would also assist with succession
planning; as a large number of experienced
meteorologists are due to retire in the next
five to ten years. It will be vital that these
roles are filled by highly competent and welltrained meteorologists.
Table 14 provides a summary of the increase in the
number of frontline meteorologists that, in the
opinion of the Review, is needed to enhance the
Bureau’s capacity to respond to extreme weather
events on a sustainable basis. As it will take time to
replicate the depth of experience and relationship
skills of the handful of individuals who lead these
functions at present, it will take a number of years
to build up this capacity.
This cost of this option, when fully implemented, is
estimated to be in the order of $10 million per
year.
As it will take a number of years for the additional
trainees to progress through to the more senior
positions, the Bureau is advocating that the
proposed increase in numbers be implemented as
quickly as possible. To provide back-up capacity
while the new recruits are in training, the Bureau
has also proposed that the international contract
meteorologists be kept on in 2012-13 and that the
budgeted reduction of seven senior meteorologists
not take place. Both these measures would add
further costs (in the order of $4 million) to the
front end of the phase-in period. This priority
action is recommended simply to put the Bureau’s
current operations on a more sustainable footing.
In the medium term, trends in demand suggest
that it would be desirable to build another layer of
capability to respond to extreme weather events.
These additional steps including some
organisational changes and specialist resources as
discussed at Option 26.
Priority Action 2: Boost the Bureau’s
flood warning capacity by:
(a) Increasing the number of frontline
hydrologists
Although the Bureau performed well during recent
severe flood events, its capacity was stretched to
breaking point during the period July 2010 to June
2011, when a record number of flood warnings
and forecasts were issued in Victoria, New South
Wales and Queensland. Significant flooding also
occurred in all other states and territories of the
nation during this time. This caused the Bureau to
reflect on and acknowledge the heavy burden of
risk it was carrying throughout the flood season.
The Bureau reported that significant service
failures were avoided only because resources were
redirected in advance, along with staff working
unsustainable hours over the peak period.
The Bureau currently employs 42 staff across
Australia in its flood forecasting and warning
services (see Table 15). This includes 24
hydrologists, 14 field technicians, two system
support staff and two staff in supervisory roles.
They are spread across all of the states and
territories in Flood Warning Centres in each of the
Bureau’s Regional offices, and are required to
switch from normal working hours to 24/7
operations whenever flood conditions arise. The
Bureau can also call on an additional 12 trained
emergency relief staff normally assigned to other
duties.
While this arrangement provides a limited short
term contingency, it is inadequate to provide a
24/7 service over extended periods or when there
are multiple simultaneous events. The Bureau’s
flood operations are highly dependant on one to
two senior flood forecasters, who are required to
work very long hours during protracted flood
events with limited backup staffing capacity. While
the Bureau can call on the 12 additional trained
emergency staff, the work they would usually
undertake is compromised. This proposal to
bolster the number of staff in the regions and
Head Office by up to 23 staff would significantly
mitigate the risks associated with an over-reliance
on a small number of individuals during protracted
flood events.
This priority action presents a number of benefits,
outlined below.

It would significantly improve the Bureau’s
ability to prepare and disseminate warnings.
By having more time allocated to media
Table 15 - Current and proposed staffing levels
Current staffing level
Proposed staffing level
Regional Offices
38 (includes 24 hydrologists and 14 field
technicians – typically 3 hydrologists and 2
technicians per region)
52 (includes an additional 7 hydrologists and 7
technicians – one each per region)
Head Office
4
13*
Total
42
65
*Note: the number of additional Head Office staff required for this purpose needs further assessment.
60
Chapter 4


contact and involvement in the state-based
emergency management procedures,
hydrologists would be able to focus more on
the vital function of warning dissemination.
It would significantly improve the Bureau’s
ability to liaise with emergency services and
the media during flood events, as hydrologists
would have more available time to plan for
this engagement.
It would enhance the essential ongoing
maintenance of the flood monitoring network
across the nation, as this would be the
primary focus of the proposed additional
technicians in the regions.
Some increase in staff in the Head Office would
ensure greater coordination and oversight of the
Bureau’s flood services and more efficient use of
resources across the regions. These staff would
liaise with relevant Australian and state
government agencies, provide project
management support and expertise, coordinate
the development and maintenance of systems,
lead and coordinate any research and
development efforts carried out in collaboration
with national (for example, the CSIRO) and
international agencies (for example, the United
States National Weather Services) and run an
ongoing training program for flood forecasters.
Again, this option could be phased in over two or
three years, reaching a full cost of approximately
$7 million per year.
As discussed in Section 3.3.3 the Bureau has
identified a range of contingency measures it will
or has taken to manage these limitations during
the 2011-12 season (within current resources).
(b) Upgrading the flood monitoring
system
The Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) is the
international standard for national flood warning
systems.
The Bureau has undertaken a pilot study to
investigate the capability of FEWS to provide the
framework for a future flood forecasting operation
in Australia.174 FEWS is being assessed for its
potential to replace the current operational flood
forecasting system and to support the new short
term streamflow forecasting services being
developed. The pilot study demonstrated that
FEWS was able to meet forecaster expectations for
operational workflows and overall useability for
flood forecasting operations.
The introduction of FEWS would enable the
Bureau to leverage a suite of validated and
effective operational hydrologic models and
forecasting tools developed internationally. This
action would enable the Bureau to make best use
of the additional hydrologists discussed under
Option 2(a). The Review supports the general
direction of the Bureau towards using
internationally developed and supported systems
and considers that this would be a beneficial early
investment, if the Bureau is able to clearly
demonstrate that this system is developing
significantly improved outputs and/or efficiencies.
This option is estimated to cost $9 to 10 million
over five years.
Priority Action 3: Formalise and
standardise service levels provided to
emergency services
As discussed in Chapters 1 and 2, the Bureau
works closely with a wide variety of organisations
to deliver its products and services, and its
regional offices liaise closely with state agencies.
At present, different arrangements exist in
different States. Partly, this reflects differing
emergency management systems and differing
severe weather risks across the country. But the
disparate arrangements have also evolved on the
basis of local relationships and according to
existing capacity. Notably, some similar services
are cost-recovered whilst others are provided free
of charge.
The upside of the status quo is that the Bureau’s
regional services are well integrated into the
varying state-based arrangements. From an
operational perspective, they work well, regardless
of whether there is an appetite for services
beyond the Bureau’s capacity to deliver. The
downside is an inconsistent approach across
jurisdictions and inconsistent demands on the
Bureau that may not be sustainable over the
longer term. To the extent that these
inconsistencies are being driven by diverging
responses by state governments to community
expectations, there may be a broader issue,
beyond the scope of this Review, about how
emergency management systems are evolving
nationally.
Many key stakeholders advised that they did not
have formal service level agreements (SLAs) with
the Bureau (see Table 16). Given the
inconsistencies that currently exist, it would be
desirable to establish some guiding principles to
clarify the boundary between the services to be
funded by the Australian Government and those to
be cost-recovered. Emergency Management
Australia could provide a leadership role to
determine an appropriate baseline level of service,
61
Chapter 4
in consultation with the Bureau and state
emergency services. This co-ordinated approach to
determining SLAs could be associated with a
discussion of the broader issue identified in the
previous paragraph, if governments felt there was
benefit in giving Emergency Management Australia
such a brief. Establishing SLAs would enable the
Bureau to set clear service level boundaries.
Requests for additional services beyond these
boundaries would be met only on a fully cost
recovered basis.
4.3 Recommended priority
actions that involve strategic
choices for government
Priority Action 4: Agree clear allocation
of responsibilities to state and local
government for flood management, with
defined boundaries on the Bureau’s role
The Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, the
Natural Disaster Insurance Review and interviews
conducted for this Review have all highlighted
systemic problems with flood preparation,
monitoring and warning arrangements in Australia,
including the lack of clarity and inconsistencies in
the roles and responsibilities of different levels of
government and their agencies including the
Bureau. A comprehensive solution to these
problems is beyond the scope of this Review as it
would require extensive consultation with and
commitment from all levels of government.
However, clarifying and communicating roles and
responsibilities is a necessary precondition to
determining what is required of the Bureau and
therefore what actions should be taken to secure
the necessary capacity.
Some options for strengthening Australia’s system
of flood management would entail a greater role
for the Bureau (these are discussed below).
Floods are one of the most predictable and
manageable natural hazards and the potential to
reduce the impact by effective flood risk
management is higher than for any other
hazard.176 This Review has therefore concluded
that it would be desirable for the Australian
government to examine the options presented in
the context of an overarching review of national
flood management arrangements.177
Even without such a review, current arrangements
could be enhanced without substantial change to
the Bureau’s role if there were a published
national agreement that clearly delineated roles
and responsibilities for flood forecasting, and the
communication of warnings.
The lack of a national agreement has meant
arrangements for issuing, interpreting and
disseminating warnings have developed in an adhoc manner and there are significant regional
variations in practice. Many of these functions
could be delivered more consistently. This issue
was raised consistently by emergency service
representatives in interviews for this Review.
Table 16 - Stakeholder comments on formal agreements
Stakeholder
Comment
Australian Government
Some Australian Government agencies expressed a desire to collaborate more
closely with the Bureau. For example, Geoscience Australia suggested improvements
to the Bureau’s warnings and forecasts could be achieved by initiating formal
agreements and operational collaborations.
Others already work closely with the Bureau but have no formal arrangements for
doing so (for example, the Australian Antarctic Division, which relies heavily on the
Bureau for the safety of its day to day operational activities in the Antarctic but also
provides significant logistical support to the Bureau’s observational network).
Some have recently formalised their arrangements (for example Defence) with costrecovery in place.
State government agencies
Information provided by the Bureau suggests current SLAs with state emergency
management agencies are often patchy, ad-hoc and differ across jurisdictions:
• some states had no agreements in place, others had many;
• some types of extreme events were better covered than others;
• many of the agreements had not been updated for more than ten years.
Local councils
Growing number of requests for SLAs, particularly from Queensland.
Others
The Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) suggested there would be benefit
from more structured collaboration with the Bureau to improve the media handling
of extreme events by both organisations.175 This is driven partly by the ABC’s role as
emergency services broadcaster and its growing appetite for content for its online
and broadcast news channels.
62
Chapter 4
There is evidence of confusion regarding who
should be issuing warnings and some parties
expressed concern that this was exposing them to
the risk of legal action.
(a) As a minimum:
i. Agree national standards for
operation of flood monitoring
networks and vest responsibility in
fewer agencies
The Bureau has suggested that nationally
consistent SLAs between the Bureau and all river
height monitoring agencies may deliver
improvements in this area without additional
investment by the Australian Government.
Consideration should also be given by the States to
vesting responsibility for river height monitoring
with fewer agencies, ideally those with significant
scale and expertise (such as state water agencies).
Alternatively, the Bureau itself could be
responsible for operating river height monitoring
networks, subject to appropriate resourcing.
ii. Clarify roles and responsibilities for
issuing flash flood warnings
Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather
Service via its Weather Radio network to a national
Emergency Alert System.178 Rapid dissemination of
forecasts and warnings is seen as critical, and up to
the minute warnings can be provided. Receivers
can be set to provide an alarm even when turned
off.
It is recommended that a determination on who is
responsible for issuing and disseminating flash
flooding warnings be included as part of any
broader consideration of roles and responsibilities
for flood management between jurisdictions.
(b) In addition to the actions described
above, either:
i.
Focus the Bureau’s role on data
management and divest
responsibility for flood monitoring
from the Bureau
A number of stakeholders raised concerns relating
to gaps in the flood monitoring network (see
Section 3.2).179
Section 3.2.2 highlighted the challenges associated
with improving flash flooding warning
arrangements. The immediate priority should be
to clarify roles and responsibilities for issuing flash
flood warnings. These arrangements should be
complemented by the development of toolkits to
assist those responsible for issuing the warnings.
The Bureau also considers its river height
observations network as the weakest link in its
service chain, as it cannot guarantee standards of
service due to reliance on third parties for data.
Many of these third parties are unable to service
monitoring equipment on a 24/7 basis, lack the
funds or expertise to maintain or upgrade the
stations adequately, or are unable to supply data
to the standard required by the Bureau.
This is a complex task that cannot be completed in
the short term and would exceed the Bureau’s
current capacity to lead this work. If the Bureau
was to be assigned this task, it would require
appropriate resourcing, along with an agreed
whole of government roadmap to guide its
actions. This work would need to include an
improved approach to public education,
particularly in relation to the short lead times
involved and the sporadic nature of flash flooding.
This would be appropriately delivered by state and
local governments, who have an in-depth
understanding of local flash flood risk and the
specific needs of regions and communities.
In addition, many areas lack effective flood
monitoring systems, noting that river gauges
installed for water management purposes may not
be appropriately located for flood warning. Under
current arrangements, this responsibility rests
primarily with state governments. One option for
resolving this situation would be to vest
responsibility for all gauging systems with the
relevant state authorities, with the Bureau
retaining its current role of data assimilation and
interpretation. It would remain a state
government responsibility to make the necessary
investment to upgrade flood monitoring networks
and provide for reliable operations.
In determining roles and responsibilities for flash
flood warnings, consideration should be given to
the potential leadership role of the Bureau. As
highlighted in Section 3.2.2, given the short-fuse
nature of flash floods, the Bureau may be best
placed to issue these warnings. Various
approaches are used internationally. For example,
in the United States, flash flood warnings are
communicated by the National Oceanic and
63
Chapter 4
ii.
Expand and consolidate the
Bureau’s role in flood management
Given the weaknesses of the current arrangements
for flood management, the Australian Government
faces a threshold question about the extent to
which its own agencies should play a greater role
in flood management in the future. This greater
role may be justifiable on national interest grounds
though it runs against the established division of
responsibilities between the three levels of
government.
If it is accepted that there is benefit in a greater
level of coordination at a national level, there are a
number of options for strengthening the Bureau’s
contribution:




reorganise the Bureau’s operations (including
the introduction of a new Flood Operations
Centre) and modernise its forecasting
systems;
enhance the Bureau’s flood monitoring
network;
strengthen the collection and provision of
data by third parties; and
improve the national information base for
flood warnings.
These suggested enhancements are discussed
below, and the cost implications as presented by
the Bureau are provided in Table 17.
(a) Re-organising operations
(including a new Flood
Operations Centre)
As one option, the Bureau has proposed a
reorganisation of its flood related services and the
introduction of a new Flood Operations Centre.
While not endorsing the specifics of this proposal,
this Review considers it to be worthy of further
consideration and cost benefit analysis in the
context of the likely future demands on the
Australian Government to fund flood recovery
expenditure.
These changes would enable the Bureau to sustain
a continuous 24/7 service capable of managing
multiple floods when required. This would mean
that the Bureau could handle a greater number of
forecast sites, improve flash-flood advice and
warnings, and extend forecast lead times on large
rivers. Adding specialist hydro-meteorologists to
the service would enhance the Bureau’s ability to
quantify and forecast rainfall rates and locations.
Increasing the number of data specialists and ICT
specialists would result in more stable data supply
and system integrity. The Bureau argues that these
changes would yield significant benefits in
forecasting skill and a much-needed lift in service
resilience.
This option is estimated by the Bureau to cost $6
million per year.
Table 17 - Cost implications of the options relating to the potential expansion of the Bureau's role in flood management
Option 4(b)ii.(a).
Option 4(b)ii.(b).
Option 4(b)ii.(c).
Option 4(b)ii.(d).
Outline
Re-organising operations
(including a new Flood
Operations Centre)
Enhancing the
Bureau’s flood
monitoring network
Strengthening the
collection and
provision of flood
data by third
parties
Improving the
information base for
flood warnings
People
31 additional staff.
Builds on option (a)
with 11 additional
technical staff.
3 new staff.
To be determined.
More real-time data.
Funding program
to improve the
coverage,
accuracy and
reliability of data
supplied to
Bureau by 3rd
parties
Improved website
presentation, linked
to.
$2.5 million/year
This option has not
been costed.
Flood Operations Centre
established.
Regional offices and Head
Office strengthened.
24/7 operations.
Systems
Modernise flood forecasting
system
More rainfall gauges.
20 additional basins
serviced.
Bureau estimates
of additional
costs (operating
and capital)
64
$6 million/year
$5 million/year
Geoscience Australia
portal for quality
flood risk maps.
Chapter 4
(b) Enhancing the Bureau’s flood
monitoring network
This option would involve additional capital
funding to make the following enhancements to
the Bureau’s own monitoring networks. For
example:



equip existing automatic rainfall gauges with
real-time telemetry (currently only used for
climate analysis purposes and downloaded
monthly after manual intervention).
augment the Bureau’s ALERT real-time rainfall
gauge network by adding additional stations.
upgrade the communications systems for all
ALERT base stations, to enhance their
resilience and allow direct ingestion of data
into the internet.
This option would cost in the order of $5 million
per year.
(c) Strengthening the collection and
provision of flood data by third
parties
As highlighted in Section 3.3.2, the Bureau is
heavily reliant on the supply of data from third
parties for its flood forecasting and warning
function. This option would involve a funding
program to support the establishment or
extension of flood monitoring networks operated
by state and local governments. It would assist in
ensuring a steady improvement in the coverage,
accuracy and reliability of real-time data from third
parties.
The Bureau suggests that funding of $2.5 million
per year would have sufficient impact.
(d) Improving the information base
for flood warnings
A key theme emerging from stakeholder
consultations has been the desire for more
information on potential floods that is readily
understood and relevant to their local area. 180
Currently the Bureau is responsible for predicting
river height levels in certain catchments, but to
understand the flood impact, communities need to
know the extent of inundation associated with a
particular river height relative to their individual
property or infrastructure. Under current
arrangements, this step is the responsibility of the
state or local government. However the ability to
provide this interpretation varies and it represents
a significant challenge for smaller local authorities.
Often, those charged with interpreting the data
simply do not have the resources or skills to do
so181 and in some cases the Bureau’s information is
simply relayed to communities without any local
interpretation or ‘value-add’.
The decision by the Australian Government to
establish a flood risk mapping information portal
will greatly assist in addressing this requirement
for improved flood risk information. Providing
improved access to such information will also
enhance the local relevance of the Bureau’s
forecasts and warnings, and may assist in helping
communities make more informed decisions when
facing a possible flood event.
Ultimately, this flood risk information could also be
used by flood forecasters in real-time to predict
flood impacts during a flood event. With this
longer term goal in mind, a collaborative approach
between Geoscience Australia and the Bureau to
deliver the information portal (similar to the
arrangements in place for Tsunami) is worthy of
consideration. Under this approach Geoscience
Australia would be responsible for static flood risk
mapping, and the Bureau would continue to be
responsible for dynamic modelling based on
weather conditions and river height data and for
issuing warnings during flood events.
Priority Action 5: Focus the Bureau’s
evolving environmental information role
on natural hazards in the first instance
As discussed in Section 1.5, the Bureau has
commenced scoping and developing its
environmental information role. This project is
being managed in a phased approach in
collaboration with the Department of
Sustainability, Environment, Water, Populations
and Communities at a cost of $18 million over four
years (i.e. four years to scope and develop the
national framework, with implementation to begin
after that subject to the provision of identified
additional resources).182
The Bureau sees the addition of this new function
as beneficial – enabling it to develop new
capabilities in information management and
communication, with spin offs for the way in which
the Bureau delivers public weather services and
potentially relieving some of the pressures
identified in Chapter 3. While this is a long term
project which may have considerable benefits to
the management of environmental risk in the long
term, it is also potentially massive in scope. There
is a risk that expectations may exceed what the
Bureau can reasonably deliver, and that the
expanded scope is not fully funded.
The target of 2014 for an expanded
‘environmental intelligence’ role, as articulated in
the Bureau’s Strategic Plan,183 seems ambitious in
65
Chapter 4
light of the many pressures that the Bureau is
experiencing. A narrower focus on natural hazards
in the first instance, or a reconsideration of the
pace of these developments, may result in a higher
return on investment in the short term. To assist
this focus, the government may also wish to
strengthen the Bureau’s mandate to provide
critical services so that these are required to be
given first priority.
The Review notes that the UK Met Office is
“leading an initiative to bring together a number of
government agencies which between them cover a
wide range of environmental responsibilities …This
Natural Hazard Partnership is still in its infancy but
we are already seeing significant benefits to be
gained from closer integration, and the wider
utilisation of the Met Office’s 24/7 operational
delivery capability and its expertise in pulling
science through to market.”184
An approach along these lines would align well
with the general trend in emergency service
provision towards an all hazards approach and is
anticipated in Bureau initiatives such as the
proposed introduction of an integrated all-hazards
decision system (see Option 26(c)). If the
Australian government considered it appropriate
for the Bureau to play a stronger national role in
flood management, it would be an early candidate
for such a development. Similarly, the
development of a heatwave product as
recommended in the PricewaterhouseCoopers
Report185 might be an early priority.
Priority Action 6: Explore opportunities
to re-phase investments in large scale
projects and programs such as the
Strategic Radar Enhancement and
NexGen Forecast and Warning System
Projects and the Bureau’s Improving
Water Information Program
The Review is conscious that its findings are being
presented during a period of fiscal restraint and
that any new spending initiatives may have to be
offset by savings in other areas. Some potential
offsets are discussed under the heading below
‘Options that could provide savings, enhance
efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau’.
However the government may also wish to
consider whether, in light of the findings of this
Review, its investments in large scale projects
might be re-phased in order to free up funds in the
short term.
(a) Strategic Radar Enhancement Project
In 2009-10 the Australian Government made a
strategic decision to fund an expansion of the
66
Bureau’s radar network.186 The Strategic Radar
Enhancement Project comprises funding of $48
million over seven years to research, develop and
install four new radars and rainfall gauge
instrumentation around the radars. To date,
approximately $18 million has been spent, and
about $10 million has been budgeted for the
project for the 2012-13 financial year.187
Of the four radars, the Wollongong installation is
complete, while the Bureau’s website indicates
that the Hobart and Mount Isa radars are
anticipated to be in service by the first and second
quarter of 2012 respectively. The North Central
Coast Northern Territory radar is not due for
delivery until the fourth quarter 2013.
The Review received very positive feedback
regarding the Bureau’s radars and its radar views
are amongst the most heavily visited pages on the
Bureau’s website. The Bureau’s forecasters use
radar images to track storms and estimate rainfall.
However given a tight budget environment and
the need to re-assess priorities, it may be possible
to re-phase the remainder of this project, freeing
up resources that could be used to implement
recommended Priority Actions 1 and 2.
(b) NexGen Forecasting and Warning
System Project
A similar re-phasing of the national roll-out of the
NexGen FWS investment could be undertaken.
This project also announced in 2009-10 comprises
funding of $30.5 million over five years.
To date, the NexGen FWS has been implemented
in Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia,
Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.
Implementation for the Northern Territory,
Western Australia and Queensland is underway
and the Bureau plans to complete the roll-out by
2014.188
As with the radars, this project has been well
received by users of the Bureau’s public weather
services. However if the government now
considers that the Bureau’s priorities should be
realigned in light of the findings of this Review, it
may be preferable to redeploy some of the
resources involved in the implementation of the
NexGen FWS to supplement frontline staffing
numbers.
(c) Improving Water Information
Program
A similar re-phasing of the Bureau’s Improving
Water Information Program could be undertaken.
This program was announced in 2007 and
provided $450 million in funding over 10 years.
Chapter 4
As discussed in Section 3.1.2, the Bureau has been
able to use some of the new resources (principally
hydrologists) gained through this program to
support its flood warning and forecasting
operations during flood events.
Further redirection of staffing for this purpose
could be undertaken in order to supplement the
Bureau’s frontline flood warning and forecasting
staffing numbers.
4.4 Recommended priority
actions for the Bureau to
support consistent service
standards and build
organisational resilience
Priority Action 7: Complete workforce
planning project and succession plans as
a matter of urgency
It is to the credit of the current Director of the
Bureau that he took steps to create a fully
integrated professional human resources function
within the corporate services branch. However,
the legacy of past decisions has left the Bureau
vulnerable to the loss of key operational capacity
in the very short term. This Review has highlighted
that an over-riding priority should be to build
capacity to respond to protracted severe weather
events.
While the Bureau has initiated a workforce
planning project and was able to provide the
Review with its Workforce Planning Strategy for
2010, this document did not identify any actions
past 2010. Without the ongoing commitment to
such a plan, it is not possible for the Bureau to
demonstrate that it will be able to acquire the
necessary additional frontline resources even if
provided with additional funding to do so. The
Review considers it essential that the Bureau
accelerate the development and implementation
of a longer term strategy. This strategy should
include a meaningful succession plan for all
frontline weather services positions, taking into
account any new positions created as a
consequence of the adoption of options presented
in this Review.
Priority Action 8: Firm up approval
processes and funding for any
departures from provision of the Basic
Product Set
As discussed in Section 1.5, the Bureau has defined
its Basic Product Set and developed a guiding
policy for determining which services should be
cost-recovered and how these costs should be
calculated. However, implementation of the
guidelines is left to the discretion of its managers.
Without formal processes to enforce these
arrangements, it appears that there have been
many departures from the Basic Product Set which
are now built in to customary practice.
It is recommended that the Bureau develop clear
processes for any agreement to deliver services
that fall outside of its Basic Product Set and to
ensure they are appropriately funded. The UK
MetOffice experience may provide some useful
guidance for this approach. This is topical in the
context of the proposals in the recent
PricewaterhouseCoopers report Protecting human
health and safety during severe and extreme heat
events: A national framework.189 The report
demonstrates that there would be significant
benefit from implementing a national framework
for heat events, but this would require
expenditure on the part of the Bureau to develop
and implement a national heat event warning
system.
While reducing the number of voluntary ‘valueadds’ at the frontline will be a challenging
undertaking, it may create some headroom to
restore training hours particularly in relation to
preparation for the provision of extreme weather
event services. The experience of the United
States National Weather Service in implementing
an analogous process indicates it will most likely
take considerable time and diligent oversight to
make this part of organisational culture.
Eliminating legacy arrangements and
inconsistencies in practice between offices may
prove challenging, particularly where local
stakeholders could view the change as a
degradation in the services provided.190
Priority Action 9: Ensure the Bureau
puts in place necessary planning and
governance arrangements to develop its
bid for capital funding to maintain its
critical supercomputing capacity
The Bureau is facing significant investment
requirements in both storage and computing
capacity (even on a standstill basis). The Bureau’s
current supercomputer was acquired on the basis
of it having a five year useful operating life, which
ends in 2014. The limits of its current
supercomputer will be reached in 2012-13 when
Version 2 of the ACCESS Prediction System (APS 2)
goes operational. No improvements in resolution
or model complexity will be possible during the
67
Chapter 4
final 2 years of the current system’s five year
lifetime (2013-2014).
applications as this may deliver operating
efficiencies, lower IT support costs and reduce risk.
Irrespective of whether the decision is made to
replace the Bureau’s current supercomputer on a
like-for-like basis (to maintain its current
supercomputing capacity), or upgrade it to enable
enhancements to its extreme and seasonal
weather services (see Option 28), the Bureau is
required to advise the Department of Finance and
Deregulation of its investment intentions by July
2012 in order to commence a Two-Pass ICT
investment proposal process. This would ensure
the proposal would meet deadlines for
consideration in the 2013-2014 Budget.
The Review also encourages the Bureau to
continue, where possible, to use commercial offthe-shelf or open-source products rather than
developing these in-house. International
collaboration has been of benefit and the Review
encourages the Bureau to continue to take
advantage of applications developed and tested
elsewhere. Any in-house development of
applications should be clearly justified in terms of
identified customer requirements and measurable
efficiency gains and subject to rigorous approval
processes which include costing of ongoing
support requirements.
Given the criticality of the Bureau’s supercomputer
in underpinning the delivery of all of its services,
developing a strong business case and governance
arrangements for this proposal should be a top
priority for the Bureau Executive. It is vital that
planning for this major project commences as soon
as possible, and that the Bureau engages the
expertise of the Department of Finance and
Deregulation to assist with the development of its
business case. It is possible that entirely different
approaches are available for accessing the
necessary supercomputing capacity. For example,
distributed processing and cloud computing are
transforming capital investment decisions in many
sectors. It would be desirable for the Bureau to
engage some independent IT expertise to survey
the options before committing to a direct
replacement of the current model. Related
government policies, such as the National
Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy
(NCRIS) and Australian Government Information
Management Office guidelines will also need to be
taken into account.
The Bureau estimates that replacing the current
supercomputer, like-for-like, will cost $38 million
(including $14 million for a secondary data centre).
Option 27 describes the potential enhancements
that could be made to the Bureau’s
supercomputing capacity and the benefits and
possible costs of those enhancements.
Priority Action 10: Extend ICT
governance arrangements to all
applications and subject in-house
development to rigorous approval
processes
As discussed in Section 2.3.4, the Bureau
acknowledges that although it has made progress
in rationalising and retiring ICT applications, there
is scope for further work. The Review encourages
further rationalisation by the Bureau of its ICT
68
Finally, introduction of any new technology
platform or application should be accompanied by
a formal business integration plan that is clear
about the resources required to implement the
solution and the business process changes that will
be required in order to capture the expected
benefits.
Priority Action 11: Review disaster
recovery and business continuity plans
The Bureau has made recent improvements to its
disaster recovery and business continuity
arrangements. Its 2010-11 Annual Report states:
“The Bureau has strengthened its business
continuity management through the appointment
of a business continuity manager and the
development of a three-year business continuity
management program plan. This will further
enhance the current business continuity
arrangements with the intention of achieving an
integrated enterprise business continuity
management system (BCMS) that is mature and
sustainable. The vision for the BCMS strategic plan
is: ‘To develop a nationally recognised business
continuity management program that improves
the resilience of the Bureau and allows effective
and efficient management of business disruption.
“In support of this vision the Bureau has adopted a
new Business Continuity Management Policy which
sets out the Bureau’s resilience commitment and
clearly identifies responsibilities and
accountabilities for business continuity across the
organisation. […] Early goals are to improve the
use of data collected, provide more robust
validation processes, improve crisis management
and crisis communication processes and develop a
more robust supply chain.”191
The Bureau recognises that comprehensive
contingency and disaster recovery planning is an
Chapter 4
important part of its work, as peak system loads
occur when system operation is most critical:
during severe events.192 This Review agrees with
the Bureau’s concerns regarding the robustness of
its current arrangements, noting the two recent
fire incidents (see Section 2.3.2).
The Review notes that the Bureau has proposed
measures to improve its supercomputing disaster
recovery ability through the introduction of a
Disaster Recovery Centre, which is discussed in
Option 27. The Review recommends the Bureau’s
disaster and business continuity plans be reviewed
to identify and mitigate any other potential risks to
business continuity.
Priority Action 12: Start a project to
introduce organisational process
thinking with a view to standardising
processes and product specifications
As identified by the Process Review commissioned
by the Bureau (see Section 2.2), the Bureau’s
services rely on the individual knowledge and
capacity of its workforce, rather than systematised
and documented processes. While local innovation
may meet an expressed customer need, it can
result in heightened stakeholder expectations for
services that are not adequately resourced as well
as a lack of consistency across regions.
Developing an orientation towards efficient,
reliable and repeatable processes would help the
Bureau manage these and other risks that are
evident on a number of fronts. Not only would this
reduce the risk of incurring unbudgeted costs from
new initiatives but it may also help the Bureau
identify operational efficiencies that have so far
been elusive.
Priority Action 13: Focus leadership
practices to re-orient culture away from
customisation and experimentation and
towards reliable, efficient and consistent
documented processes
This option is complementary to Option 12. As
discussed in Section 2.1.2, the Bureau has a strong
culture of individualism and innovation, which has
resulted in divergent and potentially inefficient
practices at the regional level in the development
of products to meet perceived local needs. In
addition the commendable culture of scientific
excellence can also result in ‘supplier push’ where
the Bureau pursues product improvements
without a demonstrated customer need or explicit
government mandate. Participation in
international networks has a compounding effect
as Bureau staff are constantly aware of the leading
edge developments around the globe.
The Bureau would benefit from agreement, at the
Senior Executive level, on a high level process
systems model that defines and governs all its
processes. This will enable the Bureau to reorientate its culture from customisation and
experimentation towards reliable, efficient and
consistent documented processes.
Moving to a more disciplined process orientation
will reap benefits in terms of risk management and
cost control but it does represent a significant
cultural challenge. Comments from the
international peer reviewers reinforced that this
challenge is not unique to the Bureau. Strong
leadership will be required to make these changes
without undermining the positive aspects of a
culture that is committed to public service and
takes pride in the quality of its offerings.
4.5 Options that could provide
savings, enhance efficiency or
increase revenue for the Bureau
Option 14: Increased automation and
outsourcing of observations
Like other meteorological organisations
internationally, the Bureau has been reconfiguring
its observations network in recent years and
increasingly using automated observing systems to
obtain its weather data. As described in Section
2.3.1, the United Kingdom and Canada rely much
more heavily on automated observations. Canada
supplements its automated surface observing
program through partnered and volunteer
observations. Canada also uses contractors for
most of its upper air observation program, which it
has resulted in cost savings.
Potentially the Bureau could also achieve savings
from the use of contractors for obtaining weather
observations. At present the Bureau has 58 staffed
stations and allocates approximately $27 million to
employee expenses for meteorological
observations. Any steps to reduce the number of
locations out of which the Bureau operates would
have to be taken judiciously given local
sensitivities. There are also practical matters to be
considered such as provision for ongoing
maintenance of automated stations and training
and occupational health and safety of outsourced
service providers.
Option 15: Explore options to limit
forecaster intervention in site-specific
web forecasts
In 2010 the UK Met Office took the bold step of
removing forecaster intervention for their site-
69
Chapter 4
specific web forecasts, thus enabling it to increase
from 450 to 5000 sites.193 It found that despite
concerns raised at the time, any deterioration in
quality through lack of human intervention was
more than compensated by the benefit of rapid
processing from raw data to published forecast. 194
The United States is also moving in this direction,
and has implemented a long term strategy to
refocus the expertise of field forecasters on the
provision of impact-based decision support
services.195
The Review considers that the Bureau should be
moving in exactly the same direction as it takes full
advantage of its investment in NexGen FWS and
associated developments. As described in Section
1.3.1, the Bureau’s NexGen FWS will deliver seven
day forecasts across all of Australia, although
current practice still involves substantial forecaster
intervention. As experience with the system
matures, it should be possible to avoid editing sitespecific web forecasts.
This option is consistent with the Bureau’s longer
term vision for the role of forecasters to focus
more on liaison and interpretation.
Option 16: Centralise media services and
establish protocols for media activity
As discussed in Chapters 1 and 2, media
management is a major pressure on the Bureau’s
regional office staff. Stakeholders also commented
on the varying degrees of professionalism of
Bureau staff who provide media content. The
media play a critical role in disseminating warnings
and advice but also demand more general news
content.
During an extreme event, the Bureau is regularly
contacted by many different media outlets,
including different arms of the ABC, resulting in
the Bureau’s operational staff having to provide a
variety of media resources on top of their technical
duties.196 The development of memoranda of
understanding with the ABC and other media
should enable a more coordinated approach.
Centralising the Bureau’s media services within its
Head Office would free up technical staff in the
regions for liaison with state emergency agencies
during extreme weather events, and to provide
technical briefings to state emergency
committees. This would also enable the Bureau to
devolve more of its media interactions to these
bodies.
In a centralised model, specialist media staff would
manage the Bureau’s media interactions and
communicate the Bureau’s key messages, based
70
on the situational advice of regional technical staff.
It is understood that the Bureau has adopted this
model for handling tsunami, with standard
operating procedures developed to outline the
functions of technical staff. The benefits of inhouse media staff were recognised by the
international meteorological experts, ‘in-house
specialist media staff have demonstrated
considerable value for the United States National
Weather Service not only during extreme weather
events but also in orchestrating media events to
inform the public and Congress about seasonal
hurricane and flood outlooks’.197 These media
specialists have also provided training to United
States National Weather Service experts on how to
stay on message when responding to the media.198
Option 17: Foster private sector service
providers who can offer tailored services
or broadcast high quality presentation of
general purpose weather information
The Bureau could reduce its role in providing
tailored services by encouraging private sector
service providers to develop value-added
products. To an extent this is already in train with
a number of providers drawing on raw data via the
Bureau’s restricted access website and
repackaging it for specific customers or for the
general public. For example, the Bureau’s
bandwidth usage data showed that private
providers such as weather.com.au Pty Ltd and The
Weather Channel were high users of the Bureau’s
online information.199
The Bureau’s website is a popular and heavily used
source of weather information, receiving 33 billion
hits in the year 2001-11.200 While many
stakeholders noted significant improvements to
the website in recent years, the Review has
identified that there is demand for further effort
to improve its overall presentation, accessibility
(including easier and quicker navigation) and
content, and to ensure information is relevant and
up to date.
To an extent this demand could be met by other
service providers. The Bureau’s website could then
be focussed on the basic product set and high
priority public information such as warnings.
Redirecting day-to-day traffic to other websites
reduce pressure on the Bureau to invest further in
high quality graphics and customisable web pages
and at the same time would reduce demand for
bandwidth and hence lower communications costs
for the Bureau in the future.
Chapter 4
Option 18: Review level of investment in
research activities to free up budget and
reduce pressure on computing capacity
The Bureau’s research program currently employs
150 staff, 79 of whom are core-funded and the
remainder are externally-funded. The Bureau
works in partnership with CSIRO through the
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate
Research (CAWCR) to deliver its research. It argues
this model enables it to access a wider range of
research skills, make more efficient use of
resources and develop more effective research
relationships with government, industry and other
research providers.201
Nevertheless, it would be possible to narrow the
scope of its research to immediate operational
requirements rather than into leading edge
research and the in-house development of new
models. This approach would focus resources on
delivering yield from existing products (such as
ACCESS, NexGen FWS). It is likely to free up space
at the Head Office and reduce supercomputer
load.
A reduction in research effort could result in
savings from $750,000 up to $12 million per year
for the complete withdrawal from core funded
research initiatives. This extreme option may not
be feasible. Even a total dependence on academic
or international research would require effort by
the Bureau to transfer that knowledge and
technology from research to operations. Necessary
expenditure might be deferred but it is likely that
additional investment would have to be made in
future years to meet emerging customer
requirements and maintain scientific currency.
As a potential way forward, the Bureau could
systematically identify the level of maturity of its
research projects. This would assist in focussing
resources on those research projects that are likely
to yield the most benefits in the near future. This is
the approach being taken by the United States
National Weather Service’s Hydrology Program.
This approach would also require the Bureau to
review its involvement in externally-funded
projects to ensure that these projects align with its
core priorities.
Option 19: Review and rebalance
relative investment in long term climate
modelling and medium-term seasonal
outlook
$16 million of which $4.1 million was externally
funded. In addition, the Bureau spent
approximately $7.9 million on research into
climate variability and change, of which $5.7
million was externally funded. Of the total
expenditure for this program, the Bureau spent
$3.3 million on seasonal forecasting of which $1.7
million was externally funded.
While the high level of external funding for climate
research reflects its importance from a policy
perspective, this research does not have such
direct relevance to the day-to-day decision-making
of the Bureau’s main customers. More than one
stakeholder pointed out to the Review that the
seasonal outlook gives them the strongest signal
about the need to adapt to climate change and
that they valued this information more highly than
information about the range of scenarios that
could eventuate in the longer term. This suggests
there may be a customer benefit from rebalancing
the Bureau’s investment of resources in these two
areas, although it would not on its own be
sufficient to fund a major upgrade to seasonal
forecasting.
Option 20: Cease or reduce the
Ionospheric Prediction Service or offer it
as a commercial service
The Ionospheric Prediction Service (IPS) function
was transferred to the Bureau in 2007-08. It
involves the collection and analysis of data related
to national radio propagation and the provision of
space weather advisory and forecast services. The
IPS operates some observing infrastructure and
has an analysis and prediction function.
Bureau data indicates that the IPS has a very small
number of customers relative to its other services
and that a high proportion (58%) is from overseas
(see Diagram 17 and Table 18).
Diagram 17 - Ionospheric Prediction Service Database
Customers by Sector 2009-10
Defence
Australian
Government
State Government
Educational/Speci
al interest
Private
International
The Bureau produces seasonal forecasts under its
general climate information program. In 2010-11
the total expenditure on this entire program was
71
Chapter 4
Table 18 - Ionospheric Prediction Service Customer
Database by Customer Type
similar arrangements proposed for Western
Australia.
Customer type
Number
HF radio users
419
Radio communications
consultants
92
Geophysical and space
8
Scientific
76
The Australasian Fire and Emergency Service
Authorities Council advised that it is working with
the Bureau to develop a national set of fire
weather products.203 This work will assist in
determining which services should be provided on
a cost-recovery basis.
Other
97
Total
692
Potentially the Bureau could meet the needs of its
domestic customers by repackaging data sourced
from overseas and cease its analysis and prediction
services. The observations function could continue
(as they contribute to meeting international
obligations) and be integrated within the Bureau’s
Composite Observing System. This option could
save up to approximately $3 million per year.
This option seems reasonable and warrants further
consideration. It is a stand-alone function that
does not interact with other parts of the Bureau.
There does not appear to be any general public
value in this service, analogous to weather
information. It is worth noting that the Bureau
currently has some contractual obligations which
may prevent an immediate exit from this area.
Option 21: Apply a consistent costrecovery model to all services delivered
to state and territory fire agencies
An international benchmarking study indicated
that, on average, cost-recovery accounted for
approximately 20% of revenue for the agencies
examined.202 As discussed in Section 2.4.1, the
Bureau has steadily increased its level of external
funding to the point where it is meeting this
benchmark. The study reinforces that worldwide,
weather information services are funded primarily
as public goods. Nevertheless there are strong
arguments for confining direct public funding to
the basic product set and taking a more rigorous
approach to cost-recovery for other products.
Variations between jurisdictions in delivering
services to state and territory fire agencies were
highlighted in Section 1.1.6. As a general rule, the
Bureau provides enhanced weather information to
fire agencies about potential and actual wildfires
as part of core services. Weather information
required for prescribed burning (a major wildfire
risk mitigation activity) must be purchased by
agencies as an additional service. In New South
Wales and Victoria the Bureau provides embedded
meteorologists as a cost-recovered service, with
72
A more consistent approach to cost-recovery from
state and territory fire agencies should:


provide greater equity across jurisdictions;
and
reduce duplication of effort within the Bureau
and enable its regional staff to better respond
to requests for services outside the standard
product set.
On Bureau estimates, this option would result in a
potential increase in the Bureau’s revenue of up to
$1.5 million per annum.
Option 22: Explore options to obtain
revenue from advertising on the
Bureau’s website
The opportunity to obtain revenue from
advertising on the Bureau’s website was
considered by previous reviews in 1997 and 2008.
This option was rejected in the past in the absence
of whole-of-government guidelines. However,
there have been rapid changes in the online
environment generally and it may be that at this
juncture advertising is more acceptable than when
the matter was last considered.
Since 2008 annual hits to the Bureau’s website
have increased from 9 billion hits to approximately
33 billion, making it one of the most frequently
visited websites in Australia. Over the same period
there has been a rapid evolution of online business
models including both free and subscription news
services. Arguably there is greater public
acceptance of advertising as part of the online
‘contract’ and comparable meteorological
agencies internationally do carry advertising on
their websites – including the UK MetOffice,
Canadian Weather Office and New Zealand
Metservice.
Given the budgetary challenges faced by the
Bureau in meeting growing demand for all its
services, this Review considers it would be worth
revisiting the question. Desirably, this examination
would be in the context of whole-of-government
policy settings for website advertising. However,
the characteristics of the Bureau’s online presence
suggest that it is likely to be the pace-setter in
developing such policies.
Chapter 4
Option 23: Phase out seasonal prediction
development and modelling and rely on
products generated elsewhere
Under this option, the Bureau would cease its
seasonal prediction development and modelling
role. Coupled climate models operating
internationally would be sourced to provide
seasonal outlooks. The Bureau has advised that
some developing nations are taking this route.
Weaknesses with this option include:



All developed countries with significant
modelling capabilities are in the northern
hemisphere, where model development
priorities focus on processes that target
increased skill in the northern mid-latitudes
(Europe and the United States). For example,
priorities in Europe are on simulating
processes that are dominated by the Atlantic
Ocean, whereas for Australia processes in the
Indian Ocean are more important.
Australia could lose its expertise in seasonal
forecasting in the southern hemisphere and it
will be left in a poor position when
interpreting and providing advice, with
consequent risks in terms of the robustness
and reliability of services. For example, in the
south-west of Western Australia, there has
been an observed decline in rainfall over the
past 30 years compared to the long term
record. The reasons for this decline are not
completely clear but are likely to be unique to
the southern hemisphere.204
It would require the Bureau to give up its
aspiration for the future to introduce a
seamless modelling approach, which provides
forecasts of the ocean-atmosphere-land
system from a few hours ahead through to
beyond a century.
This option would provide savings of
approximately $2.7 million per year. Whilst this
option may provide savings in the short to medium
term, if it is decided at a later date that in-house
seasonal forecasting capacity is required, it would
be costly to regain parity with international
standards in a short period of time.
Option 24: Fund delivery of improved
seasonal forecasting services by:
(a) Identifying potential offsets from
government beneficiaries of any
additional investment in seasonal
forecasting services
Given the high costs of making any significant
change in its seasonal forecasting models, the
Bureau should investigate and identify
opportunities to offset its investment in these
services where other government agencies are
likely to benefit. The Review identified examples of
Australian and state government agencies that
derived great benefit from the Bureau’s free
seasonal forecasting products and services. Often,
these agencies tailor Bureau outputs or assimilate
them into other models to service state-based
stakeholders, such as farmers.205
Assisting the community and businesses anticipate
and manage risk may benefit government agencies
by reducing expenditure on measures such as
drought assistance or recovery from the impact of
anticipated severe weather events such as floods
and fires.
(b) Undertaking market research to
establish industry willingness to pay
for enhanced seasonal forecasting
services
Seasonal forecasting services are about 50% costrecovered, indicating some willingness to pay on
the part of stakeholders who are calling for
significant improvements in seasonal forecasting
products.
It has been estimated that climate variability can
account for as much as five per cent of gross
domestic product variability, which equates to
about $58 billion per year averaged over the last
decade.206 This illustrates Australia’s sensitivity to
intra-seasonal (a few weeks) and intra-annual
(several seasons to a year) changes in climate. It is
not clear how much downside variation could be
avoided with the benefit of more accurate or
localised seasonal forecasts, but the orders of
magnitude suggest that even a small improvement
could yield tens of millions of dollars.
A wide variety of sectors would benefit from more
accurate seasonal prediction, including, but not
limited to, the agricultural and emergency services
sectors. These benefits include the potential for
increased profitability, reduced risk, and reduced
income and cash-flow variability.207
The Bureau should undertake a thorough
investigation of key beneficiaries’ willingness to
pay for or contribute to improved services before
developing any investment proposal for
consideration by government.
Option 25: Lower yield options
identified by the Bureau
The Bureau has identified a number of other
savings options for consideration, noting that they
all entail some implementation risk. Individually,
73
Chapter 4
these options are not likely to result in significant
savings. Combined, however, they could result in
savings upwards of $2 million per year.
(a) Reduce staffing at remote observing
stations
The Bureau currently operates voluntary remote
postings for Willis Island and Giles Meteorological
Offices. Four staff are rotated through each site at
intervals of three months to one year. Staff are
paid a significant loading due to the hardship
experienced. Logistical support for the stations is
expensive.
There are a number of potential options here,
from (i) automating observations at these sites,
ceasing observation of some parameters, and
running the stations without staff present to (ii)
reducing the number of staff at each site. These
options would result in savings in the order of $0.5
to $1 million per year.
Factors to consider include:


the potential reduction in the reliability of
some observations, reduction or cessation of
upper air observations; and
potential reduction in observations coverage
with potential impacts on accuracy of
forecasts.
These observing stations are part of the Global
Upper Air Network, a climate reference network
recognised by WMO. The data produced at these
stations is used by the international community to
monitor the global climate. Ceasing these
observations may result in a negative response
from WMO member states that rely on the data.
Current technology would not allow an automated
upper air program at Willis Island.
(b) Close the training facility at
Broadmeadows, Victoria
The Bureau operates a training centre in Victoria
which provides observer and technician trainees
training in the launching of weather balloons,
manual observations and the use and maintenance
of radars. Training is provided to approximately 20
trainees per year in addition to in-service training
provided to existing staff.
This facility could be closed and training run out of
Head Office, with hands-on training provided at
operational sites. This approach would reduce the
Bureau’s flexibility in scheduling training and the
availability of equipment for use by trainees.
However, it would result in savings of
approximately $870,000 per year.
74
(c) Consolidate forecasting functions for
Northern Queensland
The Bureau currently operates meteorological
offices at Townsville and Rockhampton, with each
office employing a mixture of meteorologists and
observing staff. Other Bureau regions have
consolidated their operations into a single capital
city office. It would be equally feasible to move
forecasting functions from the Rockhampton and
Townsville offices to Brisbane. This would allow
the meteorological staff to be redeployed, for
example into an expanded severe weather team.
This change is unlikely to be welcomed by north
Queensland stakeholders and could give rise to
concerns that services to northern Queensland
were being reduced. However, adoption of this
proposal could produce savings of approximately
six staff plus property costs or $600,000 per year.
(d) Outsource the Bureau’s library
This function is not as significant to core business
as was the case 10 to 20 years ago. It is
predominately used by CAWCR. This option could
save the Bureau approximately $300,000 per year.
4.6 Options to provide enhanced
services where there is proven
demand
Option 26: Additional frontline
meteorologists and specialised centres
and systems
The options provided here build on Priority Action
1 which directly addresses the risk of an overreliance on a small number of key staff in the
regions. These supplementary measures would
deliver a step change in the Bureau’s level of
capability in anticipation of demand driven by the
rising trend in frequency and impact of severe
weather events across Australia.
The benefits and implications of these options are
described below and are summarised in Table 19.
(a) Enhanced severe weather units
This option would increase the number of severe
weather experts in each region, from two to four
or five (depending on the region), resulting in an
increase in the total number from 14 to 31. This
option would improve the ability of the Bureau to
handle events on multiple fronts and to engage
proactively in planning and preparedness activities
at the regional level. These staff would manage
more complex severe weather events (for
example, fire weather) and provide additional
warnings and liaison capability with the emergency
service sector.
Chapter 4
(b) National extreme weather centres
This option creates four national extreme weather
centres (for tropical cyclones, fire, severe storms
and marine weather) at an estimated additional
cost of $3.6 million per year. The purpose of these
centres would be to provide greater specialist
capacity to handle extreme events, but also to
develop service improvements for each of these
hazards to meet rising expectations from the
community about the accuracy and detail of
extreme weather information. Specialist
meteorologists would be focused on implementing
new innovations in operations, conducting
competency training and assessment, and
reviewing performance of forecast and warning
services in their speciality areas. While the Bureau
currently has three virtual Tropical Cyclone
Warning Centres which are employed as needed,
this option would provide a permanent Warning
Centre.
provide more specific rapid update briefings and
services to government, emergency managers and
the public. If this approach was adopted, the role
of the forecaster would shift to:



The Bureau has advised that the implementation
of an integrated all-hazards decision system is
likely to cost in the order of $2 million per year.
(d) Enhanced observation network
This option would also boost the systems available
to frontline meteorologists, by:
(c) Integrated all-hazards decision
system

As described in Chapter 2, the Bureau is rolling out
the NexGen FWS which will provide seven day
forecasts for 650 locations across Australia. This
system, however, it is not designed to handle short
lead-time severe weather events. The Bureau has
developed separate systems to provide warning
and analysis services for Tropical Cyclones, severe
thunderstorms, and fire weather. Integrating these
systems will require modifying the underlying
infrastructure onto a single platform, known as an
all-hazards system.

The Bureau recognises that an integrated allhazards system would enable to the Bureau to
understanding the implications of the forecast
for key stakeholders;
communicating this information effectively
using uncertainty and alternative scenarios;
and
providing short term warning services:
updated frequently and tailored according to
latest observations of severe weather.



deploying portable AWS and additional
permanent AWS in critical areas around
Australia;
upgrades to parts of the AWS communications
network to ensure real-time observations are
available to forecasters during extreme and
severe weather events;
developing adaptive systems for monitoring
the upper atmosphere along Southern
Australia to assess the evolution of cold fronts
and intense low pressure systems;
developing analysis tools for high resolution
and high frequency satellite observations; and
deploying weather measuring equipment in
the Gulf of Carpentaria for monitoring and
Table 19 - Options for extreme weather forecasting enhancements
Option 26(a)
Option 26(b)
Option 26(c)
Option 26(d)
Outline
Enhanced severe
weather units
National Weather
Centres
Integrated all
hazards system
Enhanced
observational
network
Summary
Increase the number
of severe weather
experts from a total of
14 to 31 staff.
Introduce four
national centres, 28
new staff.
Enables
forecasters to
better
communicate
forecasts to
stakeholders
through more
frequent forecasts
tailored according
to latest severe
weather
observations.
Boosts the systems
available to frontline
meteorologists by
enhancing AWS
systems, developing
new systems and
tools, deploying
additional equipment,
and ensuring the
availability of
engineering staff.
Bureau estimates of
additional costs
(operating and capital)
$5.6m per year
$3.6m per year
$2m per year
$10m per year
75
Chapter 4
assessing tropical cyclones and low pressure
systems.
Concerns regarding the Bureau’s engineering
capacity were identified in the stress test carried
out in 2009 (see Section 3.3). This initiative would
also bolster the availability of engineering staff to
maintain equipment during severe weather events
and to supplement observation staff in some
critical stations currently staffed by one person.
The Bureau has advised that this option is likely to
cost in the order of $10 million.

Option 27: Upgrade to the Bureau’s
supercomputing capacity
Any additional investment in supercomputing will
require consideration of the Bureau’s long term
role in the provision of extreme weather and
seasonal forecasting services – as there is a direct
link between the level of investment in
supercomputing and the level of resolution to
which models can be run.

(a) Status quo
As outlined at Option 9, the Bureau estimates that
a minimum investment in supercomputing of
approximately $38 million, including $14 million
for a secondary data centre, is likely to be required
simply to maintain the status quo (current
supercomputing capacity). Replacing the Bureau’s
supercomputer with like-for-like capacity would
not significantly improve the Bureau’s capacity to
forecast severe weather events, and would only
enable incremental improvements to its seasonal
forecasting services.

(b) Step change
A step change in supercomputing capability would
provide the ability to process a greater amount of
observational data in a shorter period of time. In
practice, this would enable the Bureau to run its
daily weather forecast models (which are also used
to predict extreme weather events) and seasonal
forecast models more frequently and at higher
resolution.
The benefits for extreme weather forecasting
under this option are described below.

76
Increased lead time for forecasts of extreme
weather events through more frequent model
updates. Currently, the Bureau’s
supercomputer only allows it to run its daily
weather forecast models every 12 hours,
whereas this option would enable it to run
them every three hours if required. This would
enable the Bureau to provide more regular
updated on possible extreme weather events,
and to more quickly identify changing extreme
weather patterns.
Improved accuracy of forecasts through
increased resolution and at scales relevant to
local decision-making and risk management.
Currently, the Bureau’s supercomputer only
allows it to produce global forecasts to a
resolution of 40km and regional forecasts to
12km, whereas this option would enable it to
achieve much greater levels of forecast
resolution (10-20km for global forecasts and
2-4km for regional forecasts). These
improvements would be of great benefit, as
the ‘scales of action’ (where weather is at its
most intense) for extreme weather is often in
the sub-10km range.
Improved tropical cyclone track forecasting
and increased lead times for warnings. These
improvements would be gained due to the
improvements in forecast model resolution.
The Bureau has advised that there is a clear
link between model resolution and the
accuracy of cyclone track and intensity
forecasts. This improved accuracy would also
enable the Bureau to generate forecasts
further into the future, increasing the lead
times provided on cyclone track and intensity.
Improvements in forecast resolution would
enable enhanced services for other critical
events such as heatwaves, bushfires and
floods. The Bureau advised that increased
resolution has been shown to be beneficial for
forecasting wind changes, important for
bushfire management, and for forecasting
precipitation for flood events.
The benefits for seasonal forecasting under this
option are described below.



Increased resolution of seasonal forecasts
down to more localised levels. Currently, the
Bureau’s supercomputer only allow it to
produce seasonal forecasts down to a
resolution of approximately 250km using the
POAMA-2 system, whereas this option would
enable resolution of up to 50-80km.
More frequent seasonal forecast model
updates. Currently, the Bureau issues its
seasonal predictions every three months for
an outlook period of six months (one season
ahead), whereas this option could enable the
Bureau to run its seasonal forecast models
every day for an outlook period of one year
(two seasons ahead).
Better understanding of the recent climate
through reanalysis of past weather events.
Currently, the Bureau’s supercomputer does
Chapter 4
not have the capacity to process the amount
of data required to reanalyse past weather
events to determine how the climate is
changing over time. Under this option, the
Bureau could produce reanalyses of past
events which would enable research into
climate variation by the Bureau and external
parties.
According to the Bureau’s estimates, this step
change would cost $33 million, plus $11 million for
a mid-life upgrade to enable the system to meet
increasing demand during its life cycle. This would
bring the total cost of a step change to $82 million,
including the $38 million of expenditure identified
under Option (a) above.
(c) Further enhancements
An additional enhancement would be to increase
further the Bureau’s supercomputing capacity to
enable the Bureau to use ensemble forecasting for
extreme weather prediction. Ensembles are sets of
weather prediction models run in parallel, each
distinguished by small variations in the initial state
that drive differences in the final output. Running
these models in parallel requires significant
additional supercomputing capacity, as the
processing requirements multiply with each
additional model run. Each model run produces a
slightly different forecast and the difference
between these forecasts provides a measure of
forecast confidence. Where the forecasts diverge
greatly, the forecast confidence is lower and,
conversely, when the forecasts are similar, the
forecast confidence is high.
The benefit of ensemble forecasting for extreme
weather prediction is the ability to provide
confidence levels for individual forecasts; these
are important for risk management and response.
For example, ensembles could be used to forecast
the probability of precipitation levels in a
geographic location during a possible flood event,
enabling emergency services to better understand
the likelihood of the flood event and take
appropriate response action.
Ensemble forecasting capability would cost an
estimated $22 million to fund the additional
supercomputing capacity required.
A second enhancement would build capacity in the
Bureau’s Disaster Recovery Centre to provide
business continuity in the event of a critical system
failure. If there was a critical system failure in the
Bureau’s main supercomputer, the Disaster
Recovery Centre would provide sufficient
supercomputing capacity for the Bureau to
maintain its business as usual forecasting
processes. This would cost an additional
$10 million.
This would bring the estimated cost of further
enhancements to $32 million.
Table 20 provides a summary of the options
available for enhancing the Bureau’s
supercomputing capability, based on the Bureau’s
best estimates. Any of these options would
represent a substantial investment on the part of
the government. The case for making such an
investment would have to be very carefully
examined on the basis of modelling the social and
economic benefits that could ensue. In the opinion
of this Review, it is possible that such benefits
would be large but that does not create a prima
facie case for these options taking priority above
other budget proposals. In addition, as discussed
under Priority Action 9, it would be desirable to
undertake a rigorous expert assessment of
alternatives to a dedicated facility owned and
operated by the Bureau.
For short term weather prediction, including
extreme weather events, the Bureau’s prediction
models require peak supercomputing capacity in
order to assimilate all available information and
generate forecasts as quickly as possible. During
off-peak periods, when the supercomputer is not
fully being used for short term weather prediction,
the Bureau would use the increased
supercomputing capacity to run its higher
resolution seasonal prediction models.
Option 28: Improved seasonal
forecasting capabilities
The Review has found that stakeholder needs for
and expectations of seasonal forecasting vary
Table 20 - Summary of the options for enhancing the Bureau's supercomputing capability (2015-16 to 2019-20)
Outline
Bureau estimates of
additional costs
(operating and capital)
Status quo
Step change
Further enhancements
Like-for-like replacement of current
high performance supercomputer
($24 million)
Numerical Weather
Prediction ($33 million)
Ensemble forecasting
Secondary data centre ($14 million)
Mid-life upgrade ($11
million)
Disaster Recovery
Centre ($10 million)
$38 million
$82 million
$114 million
($22 million)
77
Chapter 4
across sectors. While general stakeholder
satisfaction is high, some have expressed a desire
for more accurate, reliable and region-specific
data. The underlying requirement to meet these
needs is implementation of higher resolution
models, which would require significant
enhancements to the Bureau’s supercomputing
systems (as described in Option 27).
The Review has concluded that while there are
significant opportunities for enhancements to
seasonal forecasting in the short to medium term,
these do not have the same urgency as
enhancements in extreme weather forecasting.
Any significant enhancement of seasonal
forecasting capacity should proceed only if it can
be demonstrated that a high proportion of the
costs will be recoverable from customers (the user
pays approach is discussed at Option 24).
(a) Improved presentation of existing
products
In the short term, and in advance of any further
work on cost-recovery, there is significant
opportunity to improve the communication of the
Bureau’s current Seasonal Climate Outlook
product. The Bureau has already researched an
upgrade to the presentation of this product, and is
currently at the concept stage of its design. This
will enhance the accessibility and customer benefit
of the seasonal forecasting service within existing
resources.
(b) Enhanced capability – keeping pace
with international standards
The Bureau has advised that funding from the
Managing Climate Variability program supports
much of the existing seasonal forecasting model
development, and this funding stream cannot be
guaranteed in the medium to long term.
The Bureau also warns that without an increase in
supercomputing capability, the quality of its
seasonal forecasting products will steadily decline
in comparison to leading international products,
reaching a point where it would be more
appropriate to source products elsewhere. The
Bureau would be unable to meet the international
benchmark resolution of 50 to 80km in the
atmosphere in the next decade and would
continue to have a limited capacity to model
tropical processes (research in the United Kingdom
suggests that resolutions finer than 100km are
required for significant improvement).
Significant resources would be required to develop
and implement a seasonal forecasting modelling
capability comparable to international leading
edge standards by 2016. This would include
78
funding for a large amount of research and
development to enable the POAMA system to
assimilate and account for a broader range of
climate information and variables, as well as
additional investment in observational systems in
the ocean, atmosphere and land, such as ocean
buoys and better utilisation of satellite data. This
step change would also require investment in the
Bureau’s supercomputing capacity to run the
enhanced POAMA system (discussed under Option
27).These enhancements to the POAMA system
would enable the Bureau to meet the benchmark
resolution of 50 to 80km in the atmosphere,
produce a wider range of climatic variable outputs,
provide more accurate and longer lead times for
forecasts, target forecasts down to local levels,
enhance the skill and reliability of its forecasts, and
account for climate change variables.
In addition, the Bureau has advised that the
additional resourcing available under this option
would enable it to invest in high performance
computing for research purposes at the National
Computing Infrastructure facility at the Australian
National University.208 This would enable research
and development to be carried out offline, without
consuming the limited supercomputing resources
available on the operational system. This research
and development would include trialling or testing
the impact of possible changes or enhancements
to the POAMA system and its models, or to
benchmark POAMA’s performance against other
international seasonal forecasting systems.
Additionally, the Bureau would establish a climate
data warehouse. The warehouse would make the
Bureau's seasonal forecast data freely available to
researchers outside of the Bureau. This would
enable the Bureau to foster collaborative research
partnerships to improve the science underpinning
its seasonal forecast models, and significantly
boost third party research into climate variability
and change.
The Bureau has estimated that approximately $28
million over four years would be required to
deliver this option.
Option 29: Explore use of social media to
enhance data gathering from authorised
and informal sources and to disseminate
weather information
The release of the Australian Government
Response to the Report of the Government
2.0 Taskforce has highlighted the need for
government agencies to use technology to
increase citizen engagement and enhance service
delivery. The Bureau could make better use of
Chapter 4
technology, such as social media or mobile device
applications, to enable more effective two-way
communication during extreme weather events.
A recent example of the potential value of social
media during extreme weather events was the use
of Facebook by the Queensland Police Service
(QPS) to provide reliable information to the public
during the floods in early 2011, and to dispel
misinformation from elsewhere. Following the
positive feedback it received, the QPS is
establishing a one-stop shop for information
during emergencies (www.qldalert.com). It will
provide information from local councils,
government departments, public transport
providers, power supply companies and charities.
The web site is also intended to provide links to
other sites, Twitter feeds, Facebook posts, videos
and geocoded maps.209
The potential role of social media for
disseminating weather information, and
particularly warnings, has been investigated by the
Bureau.210 Its preliminary conclusions are that the
resources required to moderate social media
pages may be beyond its means and that to avoid
misinformation they would be unwilling to include
‘official’ Bureau material on a site dominated by
user-generated content. These are reasonable
concerns.211 However, demand for these services
may be driven by the performance of other
agencies and in the future it may simply not be
possible to communicate effectively with certain
parts of the community without using the
preferred social media channels.
International meteorological organisations are
already making use of social media to disseminate
information. The United States National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration’s National
Weather Service (NWS) uses social media tools
including Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, RSS Feeds
and Podcasts to “share critical information and
provide the public a better understanding of the
work we do”.212 Additionally, the UK Met Office
provides an average of 10-30 messages per week
on its Twitter and Facebook pages with general
weather and severe weather information. This
includes a Severe Weather Warning Twitter feed
that is updated whenever a Severe Weather
Warning is issued.213
79
Appendices
Appendix A: Terms of Reference
Background
The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) plays a vital role in the protection of life and property
during extreme and natural disaster events. Its expertise and services assist Australians in dealing
with extreme events such as drought, floods, fires, storms, tsunami and tropical cyclones.
The Bureau contributes to all aspects of disaster management including planning, preparation,
response and recovery. It works with state disaster managers and state and local government
agencies in order to provide the best possible meteorological and hydrological advice on which
decisions are made.
The recent increased frequency of extreme events has seen increased demands placed on the
Bureau for information and advice, including from state and local authorities, communities and the
media. These demands can occur across multiple states and over long periods. These trends have
been highlighted most recently during the 2010-11 summer, which has seen unprecedented flood
events in Queensland and Victoria, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, and severe bushfires in Western Australia.
Climate change modelling indicates the incidence and severity of extreme weather and natural
disaster events may increase in the future. This review will assess the Bureau’s ongoing capacity to
respond to such events in the future.
Definitions
future extreme weather: expected future increase in frequency and intensity of weather patterns
leading to severe phenomena such as high winds, tropical cyclones, coastal storm surges, hail,
intense rainfall and flash flooding.
natural disaster events: a natural phenomenon leading to a serious disruption to the functioning of a
community causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses, including events
such as drought, flood, bushfire, earthquake and severe coastal erosion and mud slips.
seasonal forecasting: forecasting to provide guidance on the likelihood of weather patterns over a
timescale of several months. This could include guidance on extended periods of below or above
average temperatures or rainfall.
Objective and scope
The Review will:
1. Undertake a thorough assessment of the Bureau’s capacity to (a) respond to future extreme
weather and natural disaster events, and (b) provide accurate and timely seasonal forecasting
services.
2. Include assessments of:
a. the practices, capabilities and resources of the Bureau to respond effectively and efficiently to
future extreme weather and natural disaster events;
b. the Bureau’s workforce capability, including areas of technical expertise such as forecasting
and hydrology, and its current and ongoing capacity to deal with periods of peak demand;
c. the systems and infrastructure required to meet demand during extreme events;
d. the Bureau’s capability to conduct seasonal forecasting;
e. the balance of the Bureau’s other priorities in the context of delivery of the above services.
3. Investigate how the Bureau interacts with key stakeholders, including state, territory and federal
government agencies and examine the role of the Bureau in communicating warnings and other
information to the general public and government agencies, as well as the protocols for this
communication.
4. Take into consideration the interim report of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry due
on 1 August 2011.
80
Appendix A: Terms of Reference
5. Based on the above assessments, and having regard to the recommendations of previous Bureau
reviews, recommend actions required to ensure that the Bureau can meet its responsibilities in
relation to future extreme events and seasonal forecasting, including (but not limited to)
consideration of:
a. opportunities to reinvest or reprioritise existing resources to meet current and expected future
demands, without compromising ability to deliver on all Bureau responsibilities.
b. opportunities to deliver functions more effectively and efficiently, including through more
effective interactions with relevant agencies.
Governance Arrangements
The Review will be led by Chloe Munro with support from a technical expert or experts with
expertise in hydrology, meteorology and technical systems. Secretariat support will be provided by
the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities (DSEWPaC).
The review is expected to present its findings to the government by the end of November 2011.
Steering Committee
A Government Steering Committee will monitor progress of the review and provide guidance and
direction as needed to ensure delivery against the Terms of Reference. The Committee will comprise
representatives from the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and
Communities, the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, the Attorney General’s Department,
the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and the Bureau.
81
Appendix B: List of submissions and questionnaire responses
Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
82
Organisation
QLD Department of Community Safety
WA Fire and Emergency Services Authority
Gippsland Water
SA Water
Origin Energy
Anonymous
NT Power and Water
McDermott Aviation
Anonymous
South East Water – Operations & Maintenance
CSIRO
Anonymous
Insurance Council of Australia
SA Police
Allconnex Water
Broadcast Australia
Anonymous
WA Fire and Emergency Services Authority
Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre
Anonymous
Anonymous
Jemena
Anonymous
Caroline Vineyard, Mount Gambier SA
Anonymous
SA Water
City of Stirling WA
City of Albany WA
Shire of Halls Creek WA
Town of Bassendean WA
Shire of Roebourne WA
Department of Environment and Conservation WA
Anonymous
Anonymous
KT Pty Ltd
Toowoomba Regional Council
Anonymous
Country Fire Authority Vic
Shire of Jerramungup WA
Chief Bush Fire Control Officer, Dumbleyung, WA
WDS Limited
WA Police
Anonymous
Anonymous
Coliban Water
Murray-Darling Basin Authority
Shire of Plantagenet, WA
Anonymous
Anonymous
Appendix B: List of submissions and questionnaire responses
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
Tasmania Police – Northern District Support Division
Tasmania Police – Southern District
Anonymous
Tasmania State Emergency Service
City of South Perth
Anonymous
Tas Fire Service
Shire of Plantagenet WA Bush Fire Service
Anonymous
Shire of Plantagenet WA Chief Fire Weather Reporting Officer
Anonymous
Anonymous
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services
Anonymous
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – NRAS Tamworth
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services
Anonymous
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW Native Forests
Operations, Hardwood Plantation Unit
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services
Anonymous
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW
Anonymous
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services
Anonymous
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW, Monaro Region
Anonymous
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW, Macquarie Region
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services
Anonymous
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services
Anonymous
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Resources & Energy
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Central Coast Primary Industries
Institute
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Primary Industries
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services - Forests
Anonymous
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Economic Policy and Research
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services
NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Biosecurity Branch
NT Fire and Rescue Service
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and
Sciences
Local Government Association of Queensland
Anonymous
Department of the Premier and Cabinet, Queensland
83
Appendix B: List of submissions and questionnaire responses
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
84
Australian Maritime Safety Authority, Marine Environment Pollution Response
Australian Maritime Safety Authority, SAR Operations
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
Queensland Water Commission
GRDC Managing Climate Variability Program
Anonymous
Fire and Emergency Services Australia
KD.1 Pty Ltd
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Anonymous
Australian Agency for International Development, Humanitarian and Peacebuilding Branch
Anonymous
RAAF – HQ Air Command
Army – HQ FORCOMD
Anonymous
RAN
Geoscience Australia
Virgin Australia
CPSU
Hunter Water Corporation
Wine Grape Growers Australia and Winemakers’ Federation of Australia
Anonymous
Engineers Australia
John Saleh (Viticulturalist)
Anonymous
Shell Development Australia Pty Ltd
Anonymous
Town of Cambridge, WA
Anonymous
Anonymous
Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
Ergon Energy Corporation Ltd.
Goulburn Valley Water
Anonymous
Sydney Catchment Authority
Woodside Energy Ltd
Anonymous
Margan Family Wines
South Australian Country Fire Service
Appendix B: List of submissions and questionnaire responses
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
Australian Antarctic Division
Turners Crossing
Anonymous
NSW Rural Fire Service
SA State Emergency Service – Corporate Communications
SA State Emergency Service – Community FloodSafe
SA State Emergency Service – State Emergency Management
Anonymous
Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities – Environmental Water
Branch
Wrattonbully Wine Industry Association
Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities – Environment Quality
Division
NSW Department of Premier and Cabinet, Office of Environment and Heritage – Environment Protection and
Regulation Group
Vic Department of Sustainability and Environment
Anonymous
Adelaide Hills Wine Region
Anonymous
BoM – Bom Training Centre
WA Department of Agriculture and Food
WA Department of Environment and Conservation
Townsville Water
Water Services Association of Australia
Anonymous
Qld DERM
Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council
85
Appendix C: Stakeholder questionnaire
Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s capacity to respond to future extreme weather
and natural disaster events, and to provide seasonal forecasting services
Stakeholder Questionnaire
The Review of the Bureau of Meteorology 2011 (the Review) is seeking input from key stakeholders
identified as significant users of the Bureau’s products and services. Your organisation has been
identified as one of these key stakeholders. The Review team is particularly interested in
understanding your organisation’s needs, how well they are being met by the information and
services provided by the Bureau, and how they might change in the near future.
The purpose of the Review is to undertake a thorough assessment of the Bureau’s capacity to (a)
respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events, and (b) provide accurate and timely
seasonal forecasting services.
This will include an assessment of the Bureau’s practices, capabilities and resources to respond
effectively and efficiently to future extreme weather and natural disaster events and an
investigation of its interaction with key stakeholders.
Your effort in responding to this questionnaire is greatly appreciated. Your input will assist in
assessing the Bureau’s capacity to deliver its essential services. Please note that the questionnaire
has been designed to be as user-friendly as possible and it is not anticipated that you will answer all
of the questions. You need only answer those questions that relate directly to the information and
services you obtain from the Bureau.
We would appreciate all responses by Friday 2 September 2011.
Please email completed questionnaires to: bomreview@environment.gov.au
or send to:
Bureau of Meteorology Review Secretariat
Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities
GPO Box 787
Canberra ACT 2601
86
Appendix C: Stakeholder questionnaire
QUESTIONNAIRE
To assist you in completing the questionnaire, please refer to the following definitions:

General weather forecasting – forecasts from one to seven days of maximum and minimum temperatures,
precipitation and wind; also general warnings other than those for severe weather

Extreme weather event warnings – forecasts from 6 to 48 hours, and immediate information, relating to
extreme events such as tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms, tsunamis, fire weather, storm surges,
flood, volcanic ash and man made disasters.

Seasonal forecasting – seasonal and intra-seasonal outlooks for temperature and rainfall, generally
looking 3 months or more ahead.

Information – standard products delivered by the Bureau such as forecasts and warning services delivered
through the internet and other similar channels.

Services – tailored products, registered user products or other user-specific services that are targeted to
individual agencies, companies or industry sectors.
Name of person completing questionnaire:
Name of organisation:
Please tick this box if you wish do not wish to have your personal information or submission made public or
included/quoted in the Review
Please note: All submissions and the names of persons or organisations making a submission will be treated as public
unless the author clearly indicated that they did not wish to have this information made public. Submissions may also be
included or quoted in the Review report.
SECTION A – General weather forecasting
A.1
Do you use general weather forecasting information from the Bureau?
Yes
A.2
How do you get general weather information from the Bureau?
Internet
A.3
No please proceed to Section B
Television
Print media
Face to face
Other please specify
How often do you require general weather information?
Hourly or more frequently
A.4
Radio
Daily
Weekly
Monthly or annually
Irregular/unpredictable
Do you reformat this general weather information or combine it with other information? (e.g. adding to or
improving Bureau data)
Yes
Sometimes
No please proceed to question A.5
i. What information do you add? please describe
ii. Why do you add this information?
To tailor to specific needs
To provide to another party
To include information on the impacts of the weather
To make it easier to interpret
Other please specify
iii. How do you reformat this information? (consider the processes you undertake)
Through collaboration with the Bureau
Through collaboration with another party
In house
Other please specify
87
Appendix C: Stakeholder questionnaire
A.5
Do you receive information tailored to you?
Yes please specify
A.6
Sometimes please specify
No
Do you have a formalised, agreed or documented process for engaging with the Bureau?
Yes please describe
A.7
No
Does the general weather information you receive from the Bureau meet your needs in terms of:
Quality?
Timeliness?
All of the time
All of the time
Accessibility?
All of the time
All of the time
Presentation?
All of the time
Most of the
time
Most of the
time
Most of the
time
Most of the
time
Most of the time
Some of the
time
Some of the
time
Some of the
time
Some of the
time
Rarely
Rarely
A.8
Frequency?
Rarely
Rarely
Some of the time
Rarely
Do you draw on other providers for general weather services that could be sourced from the Bureau?
Yes
No please proceed to question A.9
i. Who are these sources? please specify (e.g. weather company, Elders etc)
ii. Why do you use them?
They provide more accurate information and/or services
They provide more timely information and/or services
They provide more accessible information and/or services
They provide more tailored information and/or services
I like to draw on more than one source of information
Other please specify
A.9
What value do you place on the Bureau’s general weather information? (i.e. does the Bureau’s information
and/or services contribute to the protection of life/property/other investments)
Very high value
A.10
High value
Medium value
Low value
What kinds of decisions do you take (and what risks do you manage) based on the general weather
information you receive?
please specify
A.11
How would you rate the importance of accurate general weather predictions?
High
A.12
Low
Not important please proceed to Section B
How would you rate the current accuracy of general weather predictions from the Bureau?
Very High
88
Medium
High
Medium
Low
Appendix C: Stakeholder questionnaire
SECTION B – Extreme weather events
B.1
Do you use extreme weather event information and/or services from the Bureau?
Yes
B.2
No please proceed to Section C
Do you rely on Bureau
information and/or
services for:
Floods
Fires
Cyclones
Tsunamis
Severe
Thunderstorms
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Other
Yes please
specify
No
If you have answered ‘yes’ to any of the above questions, please proceed to question B.3
If you have answered ‘no’ to all of the above questions, please proceed to Section C
B.3
B.4
B.5
B.6
B.7
B.8
Do you use this
information for planning
or seasonal preparedness
purposes?
Do you use this
information in your risk
management processes?
Does this information
inform your decisionmaking for the protection
of life and property?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Does this information
inform your recovery after
a disaster event?
Yes
No
No
How do you get extreme weather event information and/or services from the Bureau?
Television
Radio
Print media
Face to face
Other please specify
During an extreme weather event, how often do you require information?
Hourly or more frequently
B.10
Yes
No
Does this information
inform your management
of a disaster event?
Internet
B.9
Yes
Daily
Irregular/unpredictable
Do you reformat this extreme weather information or combine it with other information? (e.g. adding to or
improving Bureau data)
Yes
Sometimes
No please proceed to question B.11
i. What information do you add? please describe
ii. Why do you add this information?
To tailor to specific needs
To provide to another party
To include information on the impacts of the weather
To make it easier to interpret
Other Please specify
iii. How do you reformat this information? (consider the processes you undertake)
Through collaboration with the Bureau
Through collaboration with another party
In house
Other please specify
89
Appendix C: Stakeholder questionnaire
B.11
Do you receive information tailored to you?
Yes please specify
B.12
Sometimes please specify
Do you have a formalised, agreed or documented process for engaging with the Bureau for extreme
weather event information?
Yes please describe
B.13
No
Does the extreme weather event service you receive from the Bureau meet your needs in terms of:
Quality?
Timeliness?
All of the time
Most of the time
Some of the time
Rarely
Frequency?
All of the time
Accessibility?
All of the time
Most of the
time
Most of the time
Some of the time
Some of the
time
Presentation?
All of the time
Rarely
Rarely
B.14
No
All of the time
Most of the
time
Most of the time
Some of the
time
Rarely
Some of the time
Rarely
Do you draw on other providers for extreme weather services that could be sourced from the Bureau?
Yes
No please proceed to question B.15
i. Who are these sources? please specify (e.g. weather company, Elders etc)
ii. Why do you use them?
They provide more accurate information and/or services
They provide more timely information and/or services
They provide more accessible information and/or services
They provide more tailored information and/or services
I like to draw on more than one source of information
Other please specify
B.15
What value do you place on the Bureau’s extreme weather event information and/or services? (i.e. does
the Bureau’s information and/or services contribute to the protection of life/property/other
investments)
Very high value
High value
Medium value
Low value
B.16
What kinds of decisions do you take (and what risks do you manage) based on the extreme weather
information you receive? please specify
B.17
How will your needs for Bureau’s extreme weather event services vary over time?
They will increase markedly
B.18
They will stay the same
They will decrease
Unsure
What are the key drivers that could change your needs?
Frequency of weather events
Changes in climate
Changes to science and technology
Changed behaviours or business practices
Unsure
Other please describe
B.19
What are the trends you observe in these key drivers? (i.e. their impact on your need for extreme
weather services)
B.20
How would you rate the importance of accurate extreme weather predictions?
High
B.21
Low
Not important please proceed to Section C
How would you rate the current accuracy of extreme weather event predictions from the Bureau?
Very High
90
Medium
High
Medium
Low
Appendix C: Stakeholder questionnaire
SECTION C – Seasonal forecasting
C.1
Do you use seasonal forecasting information from the Bureau?
Yes
C.2
No please proceed to Section D
How do you get seasonal forecasting information from the Bureau?
Internet
C.3
Television
Radio
Face to face
Other please specify
How often do you require seasonal forecasting information?
Hourly or more frequently
C.4
Print media
Daily
Weekly
Monthly or annually
Irregular/unpredictable
Do you reformat this seasonal forecasting information or combine it with other information? (e.g. adding to
or improving Bureau data)
Yes
Sometimes
No please proceed to question C.5
i. What information do you add? please describe
ii. Why do you add this information?
To tailor to specific needs
To provide to another party
To include information on the impacts of the weather
To make it easier to interpret
Other please specify
iii. How do you reformat this information? (consider the processes you undertake)
Through collaboration with the Bureau
Through collaboration with another party
In house
Other please specify
C.5
Do you receive information tailored to you?
Yes please specify
Sometimes please specify
No
C.6
Do you have a formalised, agreed or documented process for engaging with the Bureau for seasonal
forecasting information and/or services?
Yes please describe
No
C.7
Does the seasonal forecasting information you receive from the Bureau meet your needs in terms of:
Quality?
C.8
Timeliness?
Frequency?
Accessibility?
Presentation?
All of the time
All of the time
All of the time
All of the time
All of the time
Most of the time
Most of the time
Most of the time
Most of the time
Most of the time
Some of the time
Some of the time
Some of the time
Some of the time
Some of the time
Rarely
Rarely
Rarely
Rarely
Rarely
Do you draw on other providers for seasonal forecasting services that could be sourced from the Bureau?
Yes
No please proceed to question C.9
i. Who are these sources? please specify (e.g. weather company, Elders etc)
ii. Why do you use them?
They provide more accurate information and/or services
They provide more timely information and/or services
They provide more accessible information and/or services
They provide more tailored information and/or services
I like to draw on more than one source of information
C.9
What value do you place on the Bureau’s seasonal forecasting information and/or services? (i.e. does the
Bureau’s information and/or services contribute to the protection of life/property/other investments)
Very high value
C.10
Other please specify
High value
Medium value
Low value
What kinds of decisions do you take (and what risks do you manage) based on the seasonal forecasting
91
Appendix C: Stakeholder questionnaire
information you receive? please specify
C.11
How would you rate the importance of accurate seasonal forecasting services?
High importance
C.12
Medium importance
Low importance
Not important please proceed to Section D
How would you rate the current accuracy of extreme weather event predictions from the Bureau?
Very High
High
Medium
Low
SECTION D – Additional information
D.1
What improvements would you like to see in the Bureau’s provision of information and/or services?
please list in order of importance/priority
D.2
Do you have any comments on any other matters covered by the Review’s terms of reference? (The terms
of reference are available here: http://www.environment.gov.au/about/bom/index.html)
please specify
92
Appendix D: Recommendations from the Process Review
The principal recommendations from the process review are that the Bureau should:
1. Develop Bureau Wide Process View. Develop a process oriented view of Bureau operations that spans the
existing organisational and program structures. View the Bureau as a system of interdependent components
that is more than the sum of its parts.
2. Develop Bureau Wide Process Model. Develop an overall process model in parallel with a governance
structure that shows how processes interact and allows for the evaluation of trade offs between local (either
geographically or functionally) and global (the Bureau in its environment) requirements.
3. Develop Process Oriented Bureau Wide Information Model. Develop a global information model that
provides a common ground for interfacing systems and managing information across functional domains.
4. Develop Process Governance. Develop a governance model to support Business Process Management,
including Executive level representation for process management and the role of Process Stewards who are
responsible for the end-to-end, cross divisional, operation of the high level processes.
5. Develop Innovation, Improvement, and Deployment Process and Governance. Establish communities of
practice for innovation, including Business Process Improvement oriented methodologies for generating,
prioritising, evaluating, and deploying solutions and innovations for process, people, and technology
improvement needs.
6. Develop Core Bureau Wide Processes with Regional Adaptability. Seek to reduce the amount of variation
in national processes as they are deployed across the regions, consistent with achieving local requirements.
Best practice in distributed organisations seeks to have a core of “global” processes that serve and protect the
organisational core needs, in conjunction with the necessary local “adapters” that add necessary local variants
to the core functionality. This is very different to allowing local solutions to drive the global synthesis.
7. Develop Process Oriented Knowledge Management. Seek to use the process framework as a vehicle for
capturing the tacit knowledge of skilled and experienced professionals. Experience will always be at a
premium, but it should supplement rather than substitute the process.
8. Clarify Customer Focus for all Processes. Develop formalised methods for gathering and analysing customer
requirements that feed through into product and service specifications that can be used to a) design and b)
monitor the performance of service delivery processes using appropriate, customer-centric, measures.
9. Improve Internal and External Communication Processes. Clarify and formalise communication paths and
establish IT support for messaging such that information flows consistently and transparently through the
organisation. Establish priorities for messaging such that important messages are not lost in the general
“noise” of communication.
Of these, items 8 and 9 should be considered in part as tactical projects for the coming extreme weather
season. The whole set of recommendations forms the basis of a strategic program to implement and benefit
from a process management focus within the Bureau.
The Process Reviewer believes that strengthening the Bureau’s Business Process Management capability is a
critical enabler of its ability to respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events.
93
Appendix E: Peer Reviewers
The Review sought the assistance of three international meteorological experts who peer reviewed the
Review’s draft report. This enabled the Review to test its draft conclusions and identify commonalities in issues
that were being faced by other international meteorological agencies. These international experts are outlined
below.
Jim Abraham, Director-General, Weather and Environmental Monitoring, Meteorological
Service of Canada
Jim has been Director General of Weather and Environmental Monitoring for the Meteorological Service of
Canada since 2008.
Jim started his career as an operational meteorologist in 1977 and since then has taken on various positions
including spending the last ten years studying the behaviour of tropical cyclones in the middle latitudes.
Jim Abraham's desire and commitment to advancing modern meteorology, combined with his leadership to
build stronger links between research and operations, with the goal to always improve weather forecasts, is
recognised by all who have worked with him.
Jim was awarded the Patterson Distinguished Service Medal in 2002, considered the preeminent award
recognising outstanding work in meteorology by residents of Canada.
Gary Carter, Director, Office of Hydrologic Development, United States National Weather
Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Gary Carter has served as Director for the new Office of Hydrologic Development in the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service since November 2000.
Gary is responsible for a group of about 80 Government and contract employees engaged research and
development activities to advance the National Weather Service mission to forecast the water in America's
rivers and streams.
From 1989 to 2000, Gary was responsible for the professional development and training of weather
forecasters throughout the eastern U.S. He has also worked as a research meteorologist focusing on the
design, testing, and implementation of statistical procedures to produce weather forecasts.
Rob Varley, Operations and Services Director, UK Met Office
Rob is responsible for the end-to-end process for the production and delivery of data and services to the UK
Met Office customers. This includes weather, climate and ocean observations, forecasting and the delivery of
operational services for customers and the public in the United Kingdom and throughout the world.
As a member of the Met Office Board, Rob also plays a leading role in the strategic management of the
organisation, including leading on Corporate Responsibility, helping to ensure that the Met Office meets its
objectives in a sustainable way and acts in a positive manner its dealings with staff, customers, suppliers and
the wider community.
Rob has worked for the Met Office for nearly 30 years. Before joining the Executive in 2007, he worked in a
variety of roles; starting as a weather forecaster, then 10 years at the Met Office College overseeing the
training and development of forecasters. He then moved on to project manage the procurement and
construction of the Met Office's headquarters building at Exeter. Since the move to Exeter in 2003, he has
worked mainly with our public sector customers, helping the United Kingdom to manage the risks and exploit
the opportunities associated with our changing weather and climate.
Rob is a graduate of the University of East Anglia, a Chartered Director of the UK Institute of Directors and a
Chartered Meteorologist of the Royal Meteorological Society.
94
Appendix F: Bureau functions
Component
Observations
Warning and Weather Forecasts
Climate Information
Environmental Information
Water Information
Observations and Engineering
Research
Information Communication and
Technologies
Corporate
Modernisation and Extension of
Hydrologic Monitoring Systems
Primary Function
Taking and recording of meteorological observations to meet agreed needs and priorities
Taking and recording of ocean and sea-level observations to meet agreed needs and priorities
Taking and recording of space weather observations to meet agreed needs and priorities
Taking and recording of hydrological observations
Forecasting weather, and warning of weather conditions likely to endanger life or property
Tsunami warnings
Space weather warnings and advice
Promotion and advancement of meteorological science by means of research
Promoting the understanding and use of meteorological Information
Providing forecasts and related products to the aviation sector
Providing forecasts and briefings to the Australian Defence Force including support for exercise and operations
Providing forecasts and information on the state of the oceans
Maintaining and publishing the climate record
Monitoring of climate variability and change
Providing seasonal climate predictions
Providing ocean climate information
Conducting climate research
Furnishing advice on climate matters
Developing and maintaining climate information systems
Issuing national environmental information standards
Developing and maintaining environmental information systems
Collecting and publishing environmental information
Issuing national water information standards
Collecting and publishing water information
Conducting regular national water resources assessments
Publishing an annual National Water Account
Providing a national flood warning and forecasting service
Providing water availability forecasts
Developing and maintaining water information systems
Implementing water information research
Delivering observations data and metadata to meet the needs of warnings, weather forecasts and climate
information
Maintenance of robust and sustainable national observations infrastructure
Atmosphere-Land observation and assessment
Ocean observation, assessment and prediction
Coupled earth systems modelling
Weather and environmental prediction
Seasonal prediction, climate variability and climate change
Operate data centres and provide computing services to support Bureau programs and research
Provide the Bureau's telecommunications and telephony needs to underpin operations and the dissemination of
product
Provide financial and budgeting services, including reporting, asset management and governance arrangements
Provide business systems and services including functions and costing and pricing
Government liaison, corporate coordination, international cooperation and the executive
Providing legal, property and office services
Workforce management and scientific, technical and general training support
Communication and public education (community understanding of weather, climate, water and the Bureau’s
services)
Planning and strategic advice
Funding the Modernisation and Extension of Hydrologic Monitoring Systems
95
Appendix G: Report cross-referenced against the Review’s Terms of Reference
Terms of Reference
Reference Point
1(a) Undertake a thorough assessment of the Bureau’s capacity to respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events
2. Include assessments
of:
5. Based on the above
assessments ...
recommend actions
required to ensure that
the Bureau can meet its
responsibilities in
relation to ... seasonal
forecasting, including
(but not limited to)
consideration of:
(a) the practices, capabilities and resources of the Bureau to respond
effectively and efficiently to future extreme weather and natural disaster
events;
1.1. Extreme weather and flood warning
services
1.3. General weather forecasting
2.1. People
2.2. Processes
2.3. Technology
2.4. Other inputs and suppliers
3.2. Gaps and inconsistencies in services
3.3. Delivery Risks
(b) the Bureau’s workforce capability, including areas of technical
expertise such as forecasting and hydrology, and its current and ongoing
capacity to deal with periods of peak demand;
2.1. People
(c) the systems and infrastructure required to meet demand during
extreme events;
2.2. Processes
2.3. Technology
3.3. Delivery Risks
(e) the balance of the Bureau’s other priorities in the context of delivery
of the above services.
1.5. Priorities for the Bureau
3. Investigate how the Bureau interacts with key stakeholders, including
state, territory and federal government agencies and examine the role of
the Bureau in communicating warnings and other information to the
general public and government agencies, as well as the protocols for this
communication.
1.1. Extreme weather and flood warning
services
1.3. General weather forecasting
1.4. Other Services
2.2. Processes
2.3.3. Information and Communication
Technology Network
4. Take into consideration the interim report of the Queensland Floods
Commission of Inquiry due on 1 August 2011.
3.1.3. Queensland Floods Commission of
Inquiry’s Interim Report (2011)
5. Have regard to the recommendations of previous Bureau reviews.
3.1. Findings from other reviews
(a) opportunities to reinvest or reprioritise existing resources to meet
current and expected future demands, without compromising ability to
deliver on all Bureau responsibilities.
Chapter 4
(b) opportunities to deliver functions more effectively and efficiently,
including through more effective interactions with relevant agencies.
1(b) Undertake a thorough assessment of the Bureau’s capacity to provide accurate and timely seasonal forecasting services.
2. Include assessments
of:
96
(b) the Bureau’s workforce capability, including areas of technical
expertise such as forecasting and hydrology, and its current and ongoing
capacity to deal with periods of peak demand;
2.1. People
(c) the systems and infrastructure required to meet demand during
extreme events;
2.2. Processes
2.3. Technology
3.3. Delivery Risks
(d) the Bureau’s capability to conduct seasonal forecasting;
1.2. Seasonal forecasting services
2.1. People
2.2. Processes
2.3. Technology
2.4. Other inputs and suppliers
3.2. Gaps and inconsistencies in services
3.3. Delivery Risks
Appendix G: Report cross-referenced against the Review’s Terms of Reference
5. Based on the above
assessments ...
recommend actions
required to ensure that
the Bureau can meet its
responsibilities in
relation to ... seasonal
forecasting, including
(but not limited to)
consideration of:
(e) the balance of the Bureau’s other priorities in the context of delivery
of the above services.
1.5. Priorities for the Bureau
3. Investigate how the Bureau interacts with key stakeholders, including
state, territory and federal government agencies and examine the role of
the Bureau in communicating warnings and other information to the
general public and government agencies, as well as the protocols for this
communication.
1.2. Seasonal forecasting services
2.2. Processes
2.3.3. Information and Communication
Technology Network
5. Have regard to the recommendations of previous Bureau reviews.
3.1. Findings from other reviews
(a) opportunities to reinvest or reprioritise existing resources to meet
current and expected future demands, without compromising ability to
deliver on all Bureau responsibilities.
Chapter 4
(b) opportunities to deliver functions more effectively and efficiently,
including through more effective interactions with relevant agencies.
97
Appendix H: Bibliography
Bureau documents
Bureau of Meteorology, Basic Product Set (2000) http://www.bom.gov.au/other/BPS/BPS_introduction.shtml
Bureau of Meteorology, Basic Service Policy Paper (2006)
Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2009-10 (2010)
Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau Operations – October 2010 to July 2011 (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau Program and Functional Structure 2011-12 (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Business Function Model (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Business Strategy 2010-15 (2010)
Bureau of Meteorology, Final Report on Implementation of AFFR Recommendations (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, High Level Usage Stats – Web and Mobile (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Online Customer and User Analysis (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Revised Basic Service Policy Paper (2006)
Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Management Handbook (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Register (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Plan 2010-2015 (2010)
Bureau of Meteorology, Timeline of Recent Operational Events for the 10 months October 2010 to July 2011
(2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Weather and Ocean Services Policy Handbook – Priorities for the provision of services
(2010)
Bureau of Meteorology, Workforce Plan 2010 Strategies Outcomes Report (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Workforce Plan 2011-2015 (2011)
Comcover, Comcover Risk Management Benchmarking Survey 2011 – Bureau of Meteorology Participant
Report (2011)
Deloitte, Bureau of Meteorology Strategic Internal Audit Plan 2010-11 (2010)
Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011)
Market Solutions Pty Ltd, Public User Survey – Summer 2010: A Report of Research Findings (2011)
Pitcher Partners, Bureau of Meteorology Base Asset Review (2011)
Previous reviews
Department of Finance and Deregulation, Bureau of Meteorology Agency Functions and Finances Review
(2009)
O’Kane, Mary, Creating an Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the 21 st century (2007)
Slatyer, Ralph, Capturing Opportunities in the provision of Meteorological Services (1997)
Slatyer, Ralph, Review of the Operation of the Bureau of Meteorology (1996)
The Allen Consulting Group Pty Ltd and World Competitive Practices Pty Ltd, A Strategic Assessment of the
Bureau of Meteorology (2001)
Fires
Attorney-General’s Department, Victorian Bushfires January February 2009 (2011)
http://www.disasterassist.gov.au/www/disasterassist/disasterassist.nsf/Page/RWPB4BAFD433135B9D5CA257
7E500016034#4
Bureau of Meteorology, Fire Weather Warnings (2010) http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/
Keelty, M, A Shared Responsibility – The Report of the Perth Hills Bushfire February 2011 Review (2011)
Leading Emergency Services, FESA Major Incident Review (2011)
Floods
Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Emergency Manual 19: Managing the Floodplain (1999)
Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Emergency Manual 20: Flood Preparedness (2009)
98
Appendix H: Bibliography
Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Emergency Manual 21: Flood Warning (2009)
Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment (2011)
http://www.ema.gov.au/www/emaweb/emaweb.nsf/Page/FundingandGrants_AustralianGovernmentDisaster
RecoveryPayment
Australian Government, Commonwealth response to the Interim Report of the Queensland Floods Commission
of Inquiry (2011)
Australian Government, Queensland Floods (November 2010 - February 2011) (2011)
http://www.disasterassist.gov.au/www/disasterassist/disasterassist.nsf/Page/Currentdisasters_QueenslandFl
oodingDecember2010#qld
Bureau of Meteorology, Arrangements for Flood Warning Services in Victoria (2001)
Bureau of Meteorology, Report to Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry (2011)
Bureau of Meteorology, Victorian Floods Review – Bureau of Meteorology Response to Schedule of Questions
(2011)
Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Benefits of flood mitigation in Australia (2002)
Comrie, Neil, Review of the 2010-11 [Victorian] Flood Warnings & Response (2011)
Environment Agency, Flood & Coastal Risk Management – Collaborating to improve forecasting services (2009)
Environment Agency, Flooding in England: A National Assessment of Flood Risk (2009)
Environment Agency, Investing for the future – Flood and coastal risk management in England (2009)
Ezzy, Graham and Annan, Katrina, Outcomes of December 2010 Flooding in the Gascoyne River Catchment
(2011)
Ezzy, Graham and Ward, Patrick, Outcomes of Sunday 13 March Warmun Community Flash Flooding (2011)
Hapuarachchi, H.A.P. et al, ‘A review of advances in flash flood forecasting’ (2011) 25 Hydrological Processes
2771
Insurance Council of Australia, Insurance Council of Australia Response to 2011 Natural Disaster Insurance
Review (2011)
Jordan, Phillip, Hydrological Advice to Commission of Inquiry Regarding 2010/11 Queensland Floods (2011)
New South Wales State Emergency Service, State Flood Sub Plan (2008)
Pitt, Sir Michael, Learning lessons from the 2007 floods (2008)
Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, Interim Report (2011)
State Government of Victoria, Vic Coalition announces $40 million Flood Recovery Boost (2011)
http://premier.vic.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/944-vic-coalition-announces-40-million-floodrecovery-boost.html
Trowbridge, John et al, National Disaster Insurance Review (Inquiry into flood insurance and related matters)
(2011)
Victorian State Emergency Service, Benalla Community FloodSmort Final Report (2008)
Tsunamis
Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Emergency Manual 46: Tsunami Emergency Planning in Australia
(2010)
Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Tsunami warning System
http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/about/atws.shtml
Bureau of Meteorology, Tsunami Frequently Asked Questions http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/info/faq.shtml
New South Wales State Emergency Service, Tsunami Emergency Sub Plan (2008)
Cyclones
Bureau of Meteorology, WA Tropical Cyclone Directive (2010)
Fraser, Andrew, ‘Damages from Yasi to dwarf Larry’s costs’ The Australian (5 February 2011)
Knutson, Thomas et al, ‘Tropical cyclones and climate change’ (2010) 3 Nature Geoscience 157
99
Appendix H: Bibliography
Severe thunderstorms
Bureau of Meteorology, Report by the Director of Meteorology of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Forecasting and
Warning Performance for the Sydney Hailstorm of 14 April 1999 (1999)
Bureau of Meteorology, Severe Thunderstorms - Facts, Warnings and Protection (April 2000)
http://reg.bom.gov.au/info/thunder
Heatwaves
Bureau of Meteorology, Heatwaves (2001) http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/sevwx/perth/heatwaves.shtml
PricewaterhouseCoopers, Protecting human health and safety during severe and extreme heat events: A
national framework (2011)
State of Victoria, January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts (2009)
Victoria Police, Press conference: Bushfires death toll revised to 173 (30 March 2009)
http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=20350>
Seasonal forecasting/Climate Change
Bureau of Meteorology, Submission by the Bureau of Meteorology to the Inquiry into long-term meteorological
forecasting in Australia (2009)
Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses (2011)
Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Climate Change Science: Frequently Asked Questions
(2007)
Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, Submission to the Inquiry into Meteorological
Forecasting (2009)
Managing Climate Variability, Seasonal climate forecast tools and information on the internet – User needs
analysis (2008)
Hemer, M.A. et al, Variability and trends in the Australian wave climate and consequent coastal vulnerability
(2008)
Hennessy, K et al, An assessment of the impact of climate change on the nature and frequency of exceptional
climatic events (2008)
Hobday, Alistair J. et al (eds.), Implications of Climate Change for Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture: a
preliminary assessment (2008)
House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, Seasonal forecasting in
Australia (2009)
International Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (2007)
Langford, Sally and Hendon, Harry, Assessment of international seasonal rainfall forecasts for Australia and the
benefit of multi-model ensembles for improving reliability (2011)
Sims, John, A Climate Forecasting Services Framework (2011)
Disaster Management
Attorney-General’s Department, Natural Disaster Mitigation Program Projects 2003-04 to 2008-09 (2009)
Bureau of Meteorology, Communities urged to prepare early for the wet season (30 September 2011)
<http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/qld/20110930.shtml>
Bureau of Transport Economics, Economic Costs of Natural Disasters in Australia (2001)
Council of Australian Governments, National Partnership Agreement on Natural Disaster Resilience (2009)
Crompton, Ryan and McAneney, John, ‘The cost of natural disasters in Australia: the case for disaster risk
reduction’ (2008) 4 Australian Journal of Emergency Management 43
Emergency Management Australia, ACT Projects – Natural Disaster Mitigation Program 2003-04 – 2008-09
(2009)
Emergency Management Australia, Attorney-General’s Department Disasters Database (2011)
Emergency Management Australia, Hazards, Disasters and Your Community (2006)
Gentle, N. et al, ‘Economic costs of natural disasters in Australia’ (2001) 16 Australian Journal of Emergency
Management 38
Met Office, Together – Make a difference with a coordinated response to emergency management (2008)
100
Appendix H: Bibliography
National Emergency Management Committee, National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (2011)
State Disaster Management Group, Queensland State Disaster Management Plan (2010)
Victorian Government, Towards a more disaster resilient and safer Victoria – Green Paper: Options and Issues
(2011)
Legislation
Meteorology Act 1955 (Cth)
Water Act 2007 (Cth)
Other
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Complete Year Book (2008)
Australian Public Service Commission, State of the Service Report 2009-10 (2010)
Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire
Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Portfolio Budget Statements
2011-12 Budget Related Paper No. 1.17 (Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities
Portfolio) (2011)
Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, The National Plan for
Environmental Information (2010) http://www.environment.gov.au/npei/
Kerry, Alison et al, Benchmarking Study on Business Models for the MSC Final Report (2009)
Meteorological Service of Canada, MSC Regional Operational Meteorologists (excluding CMC, DND & Ice
Centre) (2011)
PA Consulting Group, Met Office – The Public Weather Service’s contribution to the UK economy (2007)
National Research Council of the National Academies, When Weather Matters – Science and Services to Meet
Critical Societal Needs (2010)
101
Appendix I: Abbreviations
ABC
Australian Broadcasting Corporation
ACCESS
Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator
AFAC
Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council
AFF Review
Agency Functions and Finances Review (2008)
ALERT
Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time
AMDAR
Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay system
AWS
Automatic Weather Station
Capex
Capital Expenditure
CAWCR
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Cth
Commonwealth
CMSS
Central Message Switching System
COPIS
Customer-Outputs-Processes-Inputs-Supplies
CPSU
Commonwealth Public Sector Union
CSIRO
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
ENSO
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
FDI
Fire Danger Index
FEWS
Flood Early Warning System
ICAO
International Civil Aviation Organisation
ICT
Information and Communications Technology
IDV
Integrated Data Viewer
IHC
Imre Hegedus Consulting
IPS
Ionospheric Prediction Service
MOU
Memorandum of Understanding
MSC
Meteorological Service of Canada
NextGen FWS
Next Generation Forecast and Warning System
NDRRA
National Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements
NMOC
National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre
NPEI
National Plan for Environmental Information
Opex
Operating Expenditure
POAMA
Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia
RACI
Responsible-Accountable-Consult-Inform
SLA
Service Level Agreement
SREP
Strategic RADAR Enhancement Project
TCWC
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
UPS
Uninterruptible Power Supply
UV
Ultra-violet
WIRADA
Water Information Research and Development Alliance
WMO
World Meteorological Organization
102
Appendix J: Glossary
Aircraft Meteorological Data
Relay (AMDAR)
Automated weather reports from commercial aircraft. Data are collected by aircraft navigation
systems and the onboard temperature and pressure probes. The data are then pre-processed
before transmission to the ground via VHF radio communication or satellite link.
Argo
A system using a large collection of small, drifting oceanic robotic probes deployed worldwide
to observe ocean conditions and provide real-time data for use in climate, weather,
oceanographic and fisheries research.
Australian Community
Climate and Earth System
Simulator (ACCESS)
Weather models currently used by the Bureau to predict weather conditions including
precipitation, mean sea-level pressure, surface pressure, wind speed and direction,
temperature, and relative humidity.
Computer Message
Switching System (CMSS)
A system used to receive and forward meteorological data and products both domestically and
internationally.
coupling
A method for linking the output of multiple models (e.g. of the ocean and atmosphere)
together to produce more accurate weather predictions.
dynamic forecast
Forecasts produced using sophisticated mathematical modelling and meteorological data to
calculate future weather conditions.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO)
A climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. It is
characterized by variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific
Ocean—warming or cooling known as El Niño and La Niña respectively—and air surface
pressure in the tropical western Pacific—the Southern Oscillation.
ensemble forecast
Ensemble forecasting is used to attempt to generate a representative sample of the possible
future states of a dynamical system. Multiple numerical predictions are conducted using slightly
different initial conditions that are all plausible given the past and current set of observations.
The results of the predictions are used to determine the probability of particular weather
events occurring.
expendable
bathythermograph (XBT)
A device used to record pressure and temperature changes as it is dropped through water.
Once used, it sinks to the ocean floor.
forecast skill
A measurement of the forecast accuracy of a particular forecast model when compared to a
reference analysis.
hindcasting
A method used to test models. Known past weather conditions are entered into a model to see
how well the output matches known weather conditions at the prediction time.
Ionospheric Prediction
Service
The Bureau’s Space Weather Branch.
Next Generation Forecast
and Warning System
(NexGen FWS)
The system used to generate seven-day forecasts for Victoria, New South Wales, South
Australia and Tasmania (to be rolled out over the whole of Australia), drawing upon ACCESS
models. The system allows forecasts to be generated for any location in the state or territory.
nowcasting
Forecasting of the weather within the next six hours. In this time range it is possible to forecast
smaller features such as individual showers and thunderstorms with reasonable accuracy.
numerical weather
prediction
The use of mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict future weather
based on current weather conditions.
Predictive Ocean
Atmosphere Model for
Australia (POAMA)
A seasonal to multi-year seasonal forecast system based on a coupled ocean and atmosphere
model and systems which assimilate observations of ocean, atmosphere and land conditions.
radar
An object-detection system which uses radio waves to determine the range, altitude, direction
and speed of weather formations.
radio propagation
The behaviour of radio waves when they are transmitted. Radio propagation is affected by the
daily changes of water vapour in the troposphere and ionization in the upper atmosphere
caused by the sun.
statistical forecast
Forecasts produced by extrapolation from historical weather data.
103
Endnotes
1
Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Portfolio Budget Statements 2011-12
Budget Related Paper No. 1.17 (Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities Portfolio) (2011) 3.
2 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011) 19.
3 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2009-10 (2010).
4 Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Plan 2010-2015 (2010).
5 Crompton, R and McAneney, J, ‘The cost of natural disasters in Australia: the case for disaster risk reduction’ (2008) 23
Australian Journal of Emergency Management 43, 43; Bureau of Transport Economics, Economic Costs of Natural Disasters
in Australia (2001) xvi.
6 Bureau of Meteorology, High level usage statistics – web and mobile (13 July 2011).
7 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire.
8 Meteorology Act 1955 (Cth), s6(1)(c).
9 Insurance Council of Australia, Insurance Council of Australia Response to 2011 Natural Disaster Insurance Review (2011)
5.
10 Emergency Management Australia, Hazards, Disasters and Your Community (2006) 70.
11 Bureau of Meteorology, Report by the Director of Meteorology of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Forecasting and Warning
Performance for the Sydney Hailstorm of 14 April 1999.
12 Bureau of Meteorology, Severe Thunderstorms - Facts, Warnings and Protection (April 2000)
http://reg.bom.gov.au/info/thunder.
13 Bureau of Meteorology, WA Tropical Cyclone Directive (2010).
14 Andrew Fraser, ‘Damages from Yasi to dwarf Larry’s costs’ The Australian (5 February 2011); Geoffrey Rogow, ‘Australia
Assesses Damage After Cyclone’ The Wall Street Journal (5 February 2011).
15 Bureau of Meteorology, Tsunami Frequently Asked Questions http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/info/faq.shtml.
16 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2009-10 (2010) 43
17 Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Tsunami warning System http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/about/atws.shtml.
18 Emergency Management Australia, Attorney-General’s Department Disasters Database (2011)
19 Bureau of Meteorology, Fire Weather Warnings (2010) http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/.
20 PricewaterhouseCoopers, Protecting human health and safety during severe and extreme heat events: A national
framework (2011).
21 Bureau of Meteorology, Heatwaves (2001) http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/sevwx/perth/heatwaves.shtml.
22 State of Victoria, January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts (2009) 15. Victoria Police, Press
conference: Bushfires death toll revised to 173 (30 March 2009)
http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=20350.
23 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire.
24 Market Solutions Pty Ltd, Public User Survey – Summer 2010: A Report of Research Findings (2011) 7; 14.
25 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting - Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia
(5 September 2011).
26 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Australian Capital Territory Emergency Services Authority
(13 September 2011).
27 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 1, 98.
28 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 98.
29 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire.
30 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 9, 65, 71, 120, 168.
31 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 9.
32 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 10, 14, 42, 171, 122.
33 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 30, 48, 59.
34 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 46.
35 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Queensland Roundtable (30 August 2011); Bureau of
Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 131, 171.
36 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 30, 33, 53, 172.
37 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 53, 108, 168, 171.
38 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 13, 23, 128.
39 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 46, 53.
40 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 46.
41 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 56, 163.
42 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 56, 163.
43 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 163.
44 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 162.
45 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 100.
46 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 115, 131, 171.
47 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 17, 38, 127.
104
Endnotes
48
Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 173.
Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 86.
50 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 52, 54, 158, 162.
51 Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, Interim Report (2011).
52 PricewaterhouseCoopers, Protecting human health and safety during severe and extreme heat events: A national
framework (2011) 8.
53 Crompton, R and McAneney, J, ‘The cost of natural disasters in Australia: the case for disaster risk reduction’ (2008) 23
Australian Journal of Emergency Management 43, 45.
54 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire.
55 International Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (2007) 30; 49.
56 Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses (2011) 38.
57 Hobday, Alistair, Poloczanska, Elvira and Matear, Richard (eds.), Implications of Climate Change for Australian Fisheries
and Aquaculture – A Preliminary Assessment (2008) 11.
58 Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses (2011) 38.
59 Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses – Key Messages (2011) 1.
60 Department of Climate Change, Climate Change Science – Frequently Asked Questions (2007) 14.
61 Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses (2011) 38.
62 Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses – Key Messages (2011) 1.
63 Hemer, M.A., McInnes, K., Church, J.A., O’Grady, J. and Hunter, J.R., Variability and trends in the Australian wave climate
and consequent coastal vulnerability (2008) ix.
64 Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses (2011) 23.
65 Knutson, Thomas et al, ‘Tropical cyclones and climate change’ (2010) 3 Nature Geoscience 157, 160; Hobday, Alistair,
Poloczanska, Elvira and Matear, Richard (eds.), Implications of Climate Change for Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture – A
Preliminary Assessment (2008) 12.
66 Queensland Government, Response to the Floods Commission of Inquiry Interim Report (2011) i.
67 State Government of Victoria, Vic Coalition announces $40 million flood recovery boost (14 May 2011)
http://premier.vic.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/944-vic-coalition-announces-40-million-flood-recoveryboost.html.
68 Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment (2011)
http://www.ema.gov.au/www/emaweb/emaweb.nsf/Page/FundingandGrants_AustralianGovernmentDisasterRecoveryPa
yment; Australian Government, Queensland Floods (November 2010 - February 2011) (2011)
http://www.disasterassist.gov.au/www/disasterassist/disasterassist.nsf/Page/Currentdisasters_QueenslandFloodingDece
mber2010#qld.
69 Attorney-General’s Department, Victorian Bushfires January February 2009 (2011)
http://www.disasterassist.gov.au/www/disasterassist/disasterassist.nsf/Page/RWPB4BAFD433135B9D5CA2577E50001603
4#4.
70 Emergency Management Australia, ACT Projects - Natural Disaster Mitigation Program 2003-04 - 2008-09 (2009) 132.
71 Rob Varley, UK MetOffice Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011.
72 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Australian Broadcasting Commission (29 August 2011).
73 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Australian Broadcasting Commission (29 August 2011).
74 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Regional Office (30
August 2011).
75 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Regional Office (30
August 2011).
76 Sims, John, A Climate Forecasting Services Framework (2011).
77 Sims, John, A Climate Forecasting Services Framework (2011).
78 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire.
79 Bureau of Meteorology, Communities urged to prepare early for the wet season (30 September 2011)
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/qld/20110930.shtml.
80 House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, Seasonal forecasting in Australia
(2009).
81 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire.
82 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Insurance Council of Australia (29 August 2011).
83 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire.
84 House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, Seasonal forecasting in Australia
(2009).
85 House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, Seasonal forecasting in Australia
(2009) 23.
86 House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, Seasonal forecasting in Australia
(2009) 23.
87 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 42, 48, 55, 65, 66, 117, 120, 137, 154, 158,
168, 172.
49
105
Endnotes
88
Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 25, 46, 91, 127, 138, 144, 145.
Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 24.
90 Bureau of Meteorology, User-centred evaluation of the Seasonal Climate Outlook products (2011).
91 Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, Interim Report (2011).
92 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – National Farmers’ Federation (26 August 2011).
93 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 25.
94 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 103, 138, 153.
95 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 65, 173.
96 Bureau of Meteorology Services Information Management System data.
97 Market Solutions Pty Ltd, Public User Survey – Summer 2010: A Report of Research Findings (2011) 17.
98 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 150, 168, 173.
99 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 22, 39, 47.
100 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 20.
101 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 20.
102 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 42, 65, 120, 168.
103 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 65.
104 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 71.
105 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 168.
106 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 122.
107 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011) 195.
108 Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Plan 2010-15 (2010) 5.
109 Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Plan 2010-15 (2010) 5.
110 Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, The National Plan for Environmental
Information (2010) http://www.environment.gov.au/npei/.
111 Bureau of Meteorology, Basic Product Set (2000) http://www.bom.gov.au/other/BPS/BPS_introduction.shtml.
112 See: Slatyer, Ralph, Capturing Opportunities in the provision of Meteorological Services (1997), viii. The report notes that
this figure of $3.5 million does not include aviation and defence which are in a special category.
113 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011) 22.
114 Rob Varley, UK Met Office Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011.
115 Bureau of Meteorology, Workforce Plan 2011-2015 (2011).
116 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire (2011).
117 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire (2011), submission 14, 150.
118 (Cth) s6(1)(g).
119 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 49.
120 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Brisbane Round Table (30 August 2011).
121 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 29.
122 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 28.
123 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 29.
124 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 29.
125 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Brisbane Round Table (30 August 2011).
126 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Brisbane Round Table (30 August 2011).
127 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 130.
128 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 130.
129 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 130.
130 Australian Public Service Commission, State of the Service Report 2009-10 (2010) 188.
131 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2009-10 (2010) 6.
132 Bureau of Meteorology, Weather and Ocean Services Policy Handbook – Priorities for the provision of services (2010).
133 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 130.
134
Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 21.
135 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 21.
136 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 24.
137 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 35.
138 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 35.
139 See: Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011).
140 Bureau of Meteorology, About the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2010).
141 Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Radar Enhancement Project (SREP)
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/about/srep.shtml.
142 Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Radar Enhancement Project (SREP)
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/about/srep.shtml.
143 Jim Abraham, Meteorological Service of Canada Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011.
144 Jim Abraham, Meteorological Service of Canada Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011.
145 Rob Varley, UK MetOffice Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011.
89
106
Endnotes
146
Pitcher Partners, Bureau of Meteorology Base Asset Review (2011) 5.
Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 37.
148 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 37.
149 Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 37.
150
O’Kane, Mary, Creating an Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the 21st century (2007) xv.
151
O’Kane, Mary, Creating an Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the 21st century (2007) xv.
152 Bureau of Meteorological, Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay
http://mirror2.bom.gov.au/inside/oeb/networks/amdar.shtml.
153 Department of Finance and Deregulation, Bureau of Meteorology Agency Functions and Finances Review (2009)
Appendix 6.
154 Department of Finance and Deregulation, Bureau of Meteorology Agency Functions and Finances Review (2009)
Appendix 6.
155 Rob Varley, UK MetOffice Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011.
156 Bureau of Meteorology, About the Forecast Explorer http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/about/forecasts/aboutgraphical-forecasts.shtml.
157 Bureau of Meteorology, Final Report on Implementation of AFFR Recommendations (2011).
158 Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Register 2010-11 (2011).
159 Available at
http://www.ag.gov.au/www/agd/agd.nsf/Page/Publications_CommonwealthresponsetotheInterimReportoftheQueenslan
dFloodCommissioinofInquiry.
160 Comrie, Neil, Review of the 2010-11 Flood Warnings & Response (2011) 26.
161 Comrie, Neil, Review of the 2010-11 Flood Warnings & Response (2011) 4.
162 Hapuarachchi, H.A.P. et al, ‘A review of advances in flash flood forecasting’ (2011) 25 Hydrological Processes 2771.
163 Jordan, Phillip, Hydrological Advice to Commission of Inquiry Regarding 2010/11 Queensland Floods (2011) 48-50.
164 Jordan, Phillip, Hydrological Advice to Commission of Inquiry Regarding 2010/11 Queensland Floods (2011) 48-50.
165
Gary Carter, United States National Weather Service Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review
2011.
166 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 53, 134, 171.
167 See, e.g., Ezzy, Graham and Annan, Katrina, Outcomes of December 2010 Flooding in the Gascoyne River Catchment
(2011).
168 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011) 111.
169 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting Insurance Council of Australia (29 August 2011).
170 Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Management Handbook (2011).
171 Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Management Handbook (2011).
172 Comcover, Comcover Risk Management Benchmarking Survey 2011 – Bureau of Meteorology Participant Report.
173 Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Register 2010-11 (2010).
174 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2009-10 (2010) 79.
175 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Australian Broadcasting Commission (29 August 2011).
176 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Feature Article 3: Understanding Natural Hazard Impacts on Australia (2008)
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/7d12b0f6763c78caca257061001cc588/00408ced366bb56aca2570de00029f4
6!OpenDocument.
177 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Feature Article 3: Understanding Natural Hazard Impacts on Australia (2008)
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/7d12b0f6763c78caca257061001cc588/00408ced366bb56aca2570de00029f4
6!OpenDocument.
178 Ahnert, Peter, National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning Program (2011).
179 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 53, 113, 172.
180 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 25.
181 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Queensland Roundtable (30 August 2011).
182 Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, The National Plan for Environmental
Information (2010) http://www.environment.gov.au/npei/index.html.
183 Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Plan 2010-2015 (2010).
184 Rob Varley, UK MetOffice Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011.
185 PricewaterhouseCoopers, Protecting human health and safety during severe and extreme heat events: A national
framework (2011).
186 Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Radar Enhancement Project (SREP)
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/about/srep.shtml.
187 Department of Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, Portfolio Budget Statements 2009-10 Budget Related Paper
No. 1.6 (Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts Portfolio) (2009) 102.
188 Bureau of Meteorology, About the Forecast Explorer http://reg.bom.gov.au/weather-services/about/forecasts/aboutgraphical-forecasts.shtml.
147
107
Endnotes
189
PricewaterhouseCoopers, Protecting human health and safety during severe and extreme heat events: A national
framework (2011).
190 Gary Carter, United States National Weather Service Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review
2011.
191 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011).
192 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011) 1.
193 Rob Varley, UK MetOffice Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011.
194 Rob Varley, UK MetOffice Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011.
195 Gary Carter, United States National Weather Service Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review
2011.
196 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Australian Broadcasting Commission (29 August 2011).
197 Gary Carter, Unites States National Weather Service Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review
2011.
198 Gary Carter, United States National Weather Service Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review
2011.
199 Bureau of Meteorology, High Level Usage Stats – Web and Mobile (2011).
200 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011) iv.
201 Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Plan 2010-2015 (2010) 20.
202 Kerry, Alison et al, Benchmarking Study on Business Models for the MSC Final Report (2009) 22. The meteorological
agencies examined included those in the US, UK, France, New Zealand, Finland, Australia and Canada.
203 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 174.
204 Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses (2011) 34.
205 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Department of Agriculture and Food (WA) (5 September
2011).
206 Sims, John, A Climate Forecasting Services Framework (2011).
207 Clin J. Paull, The value and benefits of using seasonal climate forecasting in making business decisions: A review (2002).
208 The Bureau of Meteorology is a major partner in the petascale facility and this investment is intended to accommodate
seasonal forecasting research and development.
209 Queensland Police Service, Media Conference - World Zombie Day test of www.QLDAlert.com (2011)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcjrApZwPfE.
210 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2009-10 (2010) 6.
211 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2009-10 (2010) 6.
212 National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, Connect with us! NOAA social media (2011)
http://www.noaa.gov/socialmedia/.
213 UK MetOffice, Social media policy, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/legal/social-media-policy/.
108