Carbon Modelling Key Findings

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Harrogate Borough Council’s Climate Change Action Plan:
Carbon modelling report findings
Background
The Climate Change Act 2008 introduced national CO2 reduction targets (up to 80%
by 2050 from a 1990 baseline) and 5-year carbon budgets. Even though there are no
specific legal targets set for local authorities, advice from DECC states that local
authorities are expected to play a major role in meeting these targets through the
management of their buildings and vehicle fleets, and also in how they influence
householders, businesses and transportation in the wider community.
The CO2 reduction targets set in the UK are this country’s contribution to reducing
the risk of exceeding the critical threshold of a global average warming of 2 degrees
centigrade which is viewed as the threshold beyond which human well-being is
irreversibly negatively affected ( HM Treasury (2006) Stern Review: The Economics
of Climate Change).
In October 2009, Harrogate Borough Council’s Climate Change Strategy recognised
the local contribution for achieving the Climate Change Act targets and included local
targets of 40% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (using a 2005 baseline which was the first
year that district-wide data was made available to local authorities). The 40%
reduction target was proposed by Friends of the Earth at a time when the Climate
Change Committee was proposing a 42% reduction by 2020 as its “intended target”
to be put in place after a global agreement was reached at Copenhagen in
December 2009. The agreement on targets failed so the 42% was never
implemented and the UK Government did not revise its 34% target.
However, at this time, when the Council’s Climate Change Strategy was adopted, it
was not clear what proportions of the targets to be achieved could be potentially
attributed to each action and how cost effective each potential action was. In
addition, even though the targets in the Council’s Climate Change Strategy were set
out in line with national targets, it was unclear what proportion of action would need
to be implemented locally to complement the national policy actions (and it was
agreed that further work was needed to assess this using a carbon modelling
technique).
In November 2010, Harrogate Borough Council commissioned a study (funded by
the Regional Improvement and Efficiency Programme) to assess what measures
might be necessary to deliver the Climate Change Strategy targets.
Tackling findings of district wide carbon modelling report
The Council’s externally commissioned study (2011 Carbon Modelling Report) which
examined the implications of meeting the 40% and 80% carbon reduction targets for
the Harrogate district, as contained within this council’s Climate Change Strategy
highlighted the extent of investment needed to achieve a possible 36% carbon
reduction by 2020 and 79% carbon reduction by 2050. The local carbon modelling
report showed that these targets are only achievable with both local and national
intervention.
The Council have concluded that they can only respond to the extent that it is
resourced to do so, the targets can only be met with significant central Government
financial support for Local Authorities. A copy of the full report can be provided if you
wish , but the two significant implications drawn from the findings are:
 The massive local financial investment, at £10 million + per annum over 39
years ( which is about 40% the Council’s net budget)
 The sensitivity of measures relating to changing public behaviour
Both implications are beyond the capability of Harrogate Borough Council to address
and would require significant central Government funding and leadership and the
Cabinet Member (Environment) has written to the Secretary of State on this matter.
The Council’s report also states that Government intervention in terms of the decarbonisation of the domestic energy market and personal transport is expected only
to achieve a 45% emissions reduction by 2050, so clearly local action is crucial to
achieving the 80%.
With the current level of limited resources, the Council awaits a response from
central government but in the mean time concentrates on
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reducing carbon emissions from its own buildings, activities and fleet
continuing to raise awareness of actions that residents can take to reduce
their emissions
lobbying central government for additional resources to achieve the targets
regularly reviewing the progress and seeking out and promoting funding
opportunities available through government schemes and grant
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