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Times of India 19-8-2015
India’s bid to become permanent member of UN Security Council is still in
play
SeemaSirohi
Keep Calm and Carry On — the pre-World War II British poster — would be a suitable phrase
when thinking of India’s bid to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. It’s a
long game, the plays are complex, the opponents strong and the match hasn’t really kicked off
yet.
You have seen recent reports about the US joining China and Russia to block the UN reforms
process instead of coming out loud and clear in India’s favour after all countries were asked to
commit to their positions on paper this month. This after President Barack Obama himself
declared American support for India’s membership not once but twice.
So what is Samantha Powers, his UN representative, up to? Is the state department’s Bureau of
International Organizations playing its old tricks since its main input on India has generally been
to count how many times New Delhi voted with the US as a marker of loyalty? Or was it a nod
to the “coffee club” led by countries like Pakistan and Italy who know they can’t ever be real
candidates so they have made it their mission to block others.
We know that American equities in Pakistan are entrenched. Washington still hopes Pakistan
will give it a face-saver exit from Afghanistan by cobbling something — anything — that
resembles an agreement between the fractured Taliban and Kabul.
But instead of speculating, let’s look at developments over the recent past. In reality the story at
the United Nations evolved 18 months ago when India adjusted its position after it became clear
that the US and Russia were not comfortable with some of the aspirant countries. Washington
wanted clarity on which African country would get the nod from the continent for permanent
membership because some were not acceptable.
For Russia, the problem was different. With a Security Council already weighed in favour of the
West (the US, France and Britain), the addition of Japan and Germany — both members of the
G-4 effort towards expansion — would irreparably tilt the balance. Mother Russia wouldn’t
willingly commit hara-kiri, would it?
France and Britain came out clearly in support of permanent membership for the G-4 (India,
Brazil, Germany and Japan) plus one country from Africa. Since UN reforms are not going
anywhere in a hurry, cynics might say the two decided to win goodwill (and a few contracts) at
zero cost. Besides, right now no one is asking them to be removed in favour of one member to
represent Europe (logical), which might happen 30 years from now.
That leaves China, a country that always plays a far-reaching game. China’s letter on UN
reforms camouflaged its opposition to any expansion with a tour de force of lofty rhetoric on the
UN Charter, common interests, harmony, efficiency, flexibility, patience, geographical balance,
the importance of small and medium-sized countries (i.e. its many clients), best practices,
transparency, respect, mutual trust and unity. Phew. Unless all of these are met and that too to
Beijing’s satisfaction, it’s a no go.
While China’s stand is no surprise, getting the US and Russia to commit to reforms is a worthy
pursuit. When it became known that the two big boys had problems with the G-4 formula of
expanding permanent members by an additional five or six countries, including one or two from
Africa, new “juggad” was done. The “package” approach of 2005, which had seen the G-4 band
together to push for expansion, was jettisoned.
A more democratic plan was crafted. Any country aspiring to be a permanent member now has
to win an election in the UN General Assembly, or the “people’s” chamber representing the bulk
of humanity.
The drama will shift from trying to lobby the P-5 to bringing the weight of “democracy” on
them. If they deny a democratic process, they can explain why it’s a bad idea. There is no veto
here. The current state of play: the reforms will come up for a vote in September and the
document will be adopted if supporters of Security Council expansion can get 128 votes from the
193 member countries. Currently, they have 121 countries as supporters, including two
permanent members, namely France and Britain.
So far, 58 countries have taken no position on the matter, thanks mainly to lobbying by
opponents, and 17 have explicitly opposed expansion. The US, the world’s leading democracy,
currently is in the company of Pakistan, China and Russia.
The real test will come when the General Assembly elects specific countries as candidates.
Cheques will be cashed then and the US will hopefully vote for India as Obama promised the
people of India.