252solnB2 4/30/01 (Open this document in 'Page Layout' view!) B. HYPOTHESIS TESTS FOR ONE SAMPLE 1. The Meaning of Hypothesis Testing 8.1, 8.6 2. Steps for Testing a Hypothesis Applied to testing for a Population Mean 8.17† (Assume that 60 is a population standard deviation ), 8.18†, 8.44†, 8.52† 3. The Use of p-value instead of Significance Levels. p-value for 8.17†, 8.29†*, 8.30†, 8.40†( 5.10 ) , 8.39†, 8.48†, B6 Graded Assignment 2 (Will be posted) 4. Type One and Type Two Errors 8.12†, 8.13†, 8.14* 5. Hypotheses about a Proportion 8.58†, 8.61†, 8.66† 6. The Sign Test B1, B2, 15.1†, 15.2*, 15.4†, 15.7†, 15.8†* 7. Hypothesis Test for Means - Rare Events B3, B4 8. Hypothesis Tests for a Variance. B5 Problem B6: Test the following using (i) a test ratio with a p-value, (ii) a confidence interval for the sample mean and (iii) a critical value for the sample mean. .05 . a. H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , x 8.40 and x 5.92 . b. H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , x 8.40 and x 5.92 . c. H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , d. H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , e. H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , f. H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , Solution: From the formula table. Interval for Confidence Interval Mean ( x z 2 x Known) Mean ( Unknown) x t 2 s x x 8.40 and x 5.92 . s x 8.40 and x 5.92 . s x 8.40 and x 5.92 . s x 8.40 and x 5.92 . Hypotheses Test Ratio H0 : 0 z H1 : 0 H0 : 0 t x 0 x x 0 sx Critical Value xcv 0 z 2 x xcv 0 t 2 s x H1 : 0 DF n 1 A p-value is a measure of the credibility of the null hypothesis and is defined as the probability that a test lower low statistic or ratio as extreme as or more extreme than the observed statistic or ratio could occur, high higher assuming that the null hypothesis is true. The rule on p-value: If the p-value is less than the significance level (alpha) reject the null hypothesis. If the p-value is greater than or equal to the significance level, do not reject the null hypothesis. For the following 3 sections x x n 8.40 49 1.20 , z x 0 x 5.92 5 0.7667 1.20 a) H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , x 8.40 and x 5.92 . Solution: This is a one-sided problem where the 'reject' zone is to the right. (i) Test ratio: We already know that z 0.7667 , In this right-sided problem pval Px 5.92 Pz 0.77 Pz 0 P0 z 0.77 .5 .2794 .2206 . Make diagrams. A diagram for the standardized Normal distribution has zero in the middle. For the pvalue shade the area above 0.77. We already know that is .2206. Since .2206 is above .05, do not reject the null hypothesis. A diagram for the conventional test would show a shaded 'reject' zone above z z .05 1.645 . Since 0.7667 does not fall in this region, do not reject the null hypothesis. (ii) The confidence interval has the same direction as the alternate hypothesis, so it has the form x z x 5.92 1.645 1.20 3.946 . Make a diagram. Put x 5.92 in the middle and shade the area above 3.946. Since 0 5 is in the confidence interval, do not reject the null hypothesis (iii) Since we are afraid that the mean may be above 5, the critical value for the sample mean must be above 5. The formula we use is xcv 0 z x 5 1.645 1.20 6.974 . Make a diagram. Shade the area above 6.974. Since x 5.92 does not fall in this 'reject region, do not reject the null hypothesis. b) H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , x 8.40 and x 5.92 . Solution: This is a one-sided problem where the 'reject' zone is to the left. (i) Test ratio: We already know that z 0.7667 , In this left-sided problem pval Px 5.92 Pz 0.77 Pz 0 P0 z 0.77 .5 .2794 .7206 . Make diagrams. A diagram for the standardized Normal distribution has zero in the middle. For the pvalue shade the area below 0.77. We already know that is .7206. Since .7206 is above .05, do not reject the null hypothesis. A diagram for the conventional test would show a shaded 'reject' zone below z z.05 1.645 . Since 0.7667 does not fall in this region, do not reject the null hypothesis. (ii) The confidence interval has the same direction as the alternate hypothesis, so it has the form x z x 5.92 1.645 1.20 7.894 . Make a diagram. Put x 5.92 in the middle and shade the area below 7.894. Since 0 5 is in the confidence interval, do not reject the null hypothesis (iii) Since we are afraid that the mean may be below 5, the critical value for the sample mean must be below 5. The formula we use is xcv 0 z x 5 1.645 1.20 3.026 . Make a diagram. Shade the area below 3.026. Since x 5.92 does not fall in this 'reject region, do not reject the null hypothesis. c) H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , x 8.40 and x 5.92 . Solution: This is a two-sided problem where the 'reject' zone is in both tails of the distribution. (i) Test ratio: We already know that z 0.7667 , In this two-sided problem, take the probability to the nearest corner and double it. pval 2Px 5.92 2Pz 0.77 2Pz 0 P0 z 0.77 2.5 .2794 2.2206 .4412 . Make diagrams. A diagram for the standardized Normal distribution has zero in the middle. For the pvalue shade the area above 0.77 and the area below -.77. We already know that is .4412. Since .4412 is above .05, do not reject the null hypothesis. A diagram for the conventional test (also with zero in the middle) would show a shaded 'reject' zone above z z.025 1.960 and a second 'reject region below z z.025 1.960 Since 0.7667 does not fall in 2 2 these regions, do not reject the null hypothesis. (ii) The confidence interval has the form x z x 5.92 1.96 1.20 5.92 2.352 , or 3.568 to 2 8.272.. Make a diagram. Put x 5.92 in the middle and shade the area between 3.568 and 8.272. Since 0 5 is in the confidence interval, do not reject the null hypothesis (iii) The critical value for the sample mean has the formula xcv 0 z x . So the two critical values 2 are xcv 5 1.960 1.20 5 2.352 or 2.648 to 7.352. Make a diagram. Put 0 5 in the middle. Shade the areas below 2.648 and above 7.352 to show two 'reject regions. Since x 5.92 does not fall in either 'reject region, do not reject the null hypothesis. For the following 3 sections s x sx 8.40 1.20 , df n 1 48 , t n 49 n 1 48 n 1 48 note that t t.025 2.011 . t.05 1.677 and t x 0 5.92 5 0.7667 , and sx 1.20 2 d) H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , s x 8.40 and x 5.92 . Solution: This is a one-sided problem where the 'reject' zone is to the right. (i) Test ratio: We already know that t 0.7667 , In this right-sided problem 48 48 pval Px 5.92 Pt 0.77 . If we look on the t table, we find that t.25 0.680 and t.20 0.849 . This means that Pt 0.680 0.25 and Pt 0.849 0.20 . So the probability that t is above 0.77 is between .20 and .25. We can say that .20 p val .25. Make diagrams. A diagram for the t distribution has zero in the middle. For the p-value shade the area above 0.77. We already know that is between .20 and .25. Since these numbers are both .05, do not reject the null hypothesis. A diagram for the conventional test would show a shaded 'reject' zone above t t.05 1.677 . Since 0.7667 does not fall in this region, do not reject the null hypothesis. (ii) The confidence interval has the same direction as the alternate hypothesis, so it has the form x t x 5.92 1.677 1.20 3.908 . Make a diagram. Put x 5.92 in the middle and shade the area above 3.908. Since 0 5 is in the confidence interval, do not reject the null hypothesis (iii) Since we are afraid that the mean may be above 5, the critical value for the sample mean must be above 5. The formula we use is xcv 0 t x 5 1.677 1.20 7.012 . Make a diagram. Shade the area above 7.012. Since x 5.92 does not fall in this 'reject region, do not reject the null hypothesis. e) H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , s x 8.40 and x 5.92 . Solution: This is a one-sided problem where the 'reject' zone is to the left. (i) Test ratio: We already know that t 0.7667 , In this left-sided problem pval Px 5.92 Pt 0.77 . . We already know that the probability that t is above 0.77 is between .20 and .25. So the probability below t must be between .75 and .80. Make diagrams. A diagram for the t distribution has zero in the middle. For the p-value shade the area below 0.77. We already know that it is between .75 and .80. Since both probabilities are above .05, do not reject the null hypothesis. A diagram for the conventional test would show a shaded 'reject' zone below t t.05 1.677 . Since 0.7667 does not fall in this region, do not reject the null hypothesis. (ii) The confidence interval has the same direction as the alternate hypothesis, so it has the form x t x 5.92 1.677 1.20 7.932 . Make a diagram. Put x 5.92 in the middle and shade the area below 7.932. Since 0 5 is in the confidence interval, do not reject the null hypothesis (iii) Since we are afraid that the mean may be below 5, the critical value for the sample mean must be below 5. The formula we use is xcv 0 t x 5 1.677 1.20 2.988 . Make a diagram. Shade the area below 2.988. Since x 5.92 does not fall in this 'reject region, do not reject the null hypothesis. f.) H 0 : 5, H 1 : 5 when n 49 , s x 8.40 and x 5.92 . Solution: This is a two-sided problem where the 'reject' zone is in both tails of the distribution. (i) Test ratio: We already know that t 0.7667 , In this two-sided problem, take the probability to the nearest corner and double it. pval 2Px 5.92 2Pz 0.77 . We already know that the probability that t is above 0.77 is between .20 and .25. If we double the probability, we can say that .40 p val .50. Make diagrams. A diagram for the t distribution has zero in the middle. For the p-value shade the area above 0.77 and the area below -.77. We already know that the total area is between .40 and .50.. Since these probabilities are above .05, do not reject the null hypothesis. A diagram for the conventional test would show a shaded 'reject' zone above t n 1 t 48 2.011 and a 2 .025 48 second 'reject region below tn1 t.025 2.011 Since 0.7667 does not fall in these regions, do not 2 reject the null hypothesis. (ii) The confidence interval has the form x t x 5.92 2.0111.20 5.92 2.413 , or 3.507 to 2 8.333. Make a diagram. Put x 5.92 in the middle and shade the area between 3.507 and 8.333 Since 0 5 is in the confidence interval, do not reject the null hypothesis (iii) The critical value for the sample mean has the formula xcv 0 z x . So the two critical values 2 are xcv 5 2.0111.20 5 2.413 or 2.587 to 7.413. Make a diagram. Shade the areas below 2.587 and above 7.413 to show two 'reject regions. Since x 5.92 does not fall in either 'reject region, do not reject the null hypothesis.