Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population

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Implementation of the 2013

European Standard Population

1. Introduction

1.1 Overview of the consultation

The European Standard Population (ESP) is an artificial population structure which is used in the weighting of mortality or incidence data to produce age standardised rates. Eurostat, the statistical institute of the

European Union, has decided to bring this population structure up to date. The existing ESP, which was introduced in 1976, is referred to in this document as ‘the 1976 ESP’ and the new one as ‘the 2013 ESP’.

ONS is consulting on how to implement the change in the UK. This consultation is on behalf of the

Government Statistical Service (GSS) as a whole, as there are other government bodies which publish statistics that will be affected. However, it should be noted that because the various government bodies vary in their responsibilities, priorities and resources, and the nature of their statistical publications, they will not necessarily all follow the same approach following this consultation.

ONS is not consulting on:

The 2013 ESP structure, which has been decided by an expert group convened by Eurostat and approved by representatives of all the EU Member States.

The principle of whether to implement the change, as the ESP is a Europe-wide standard methodology which UK producers of official statistics are expected to follow.

Because use of the ESP is widespread not only in government but across academia, the private sector and health charities, ONS wishes to engage with as many producers and users of statistics affected as possible.

This consultation aims to explain the reasons for the change, outline its effect on statistics, and seek views on a number of aspects of implementation.

The Code of Practice for Official Statistics 1 requires a proportionate consultation with statistics users when a methodological change is introduced. This document contains a list of scheduled National Statistics and official statistics which will be affected, in Annex 1. The list covers statistics regularly produced by GSS bodies, not only ONS; but it is not necessarily comprehensive, and it should be assumed that any publication containing age standardised rates is likely to be affected by the change. The illustrative rates shown in this document are for Engla nd and Wales, or England only, reflecting ONS’s responsibilities, but it is expected that the results will be similar for all parts of the UK.

1 UK Statistics Authority. Code of Practice for Official Statistics: http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-ofpractice/index.html

Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population | Page 2

There are five consultation questions, which are listed at the end of this document.

1.2 Consultation process

Confidentiality and data protection

Information provided in response to this consultation, including personal information, may be subject to publication or release to other parties or to disclosure in accordance with the access to information regimes

(these are primarily the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA), the Data Protection Act 1998 (DPA) and the Environmental Information Regulations 2004).

If you would like the information, including personal data, that you submit to be treated as confidential, please be aware that, under the FOIA, there is a statutory Code of Practice with which public authorities must comply and which deals, among other things, with obligations of confidence. In view of this it would be helpful if you could explain to us why you regard the information you have provided as confidential. If we receive a request for disclosure of the information we will take full account of your explanation, but we cannot give an assurance that confidentiality can be maintained in all circumstances. Before disclosing any information that is personal to you, we will inform you of this in advance of any disclosure. An automatic confidentiality disclaimer generated by your IT system will not, of itself, be regarded as binding on the Office for National Statistics.

Please ensure that your response is clearly marked if you wish your response and your name to be kept confidential. Confidential responses will be included in any summary of numbers of comments received and views expressed.

Consultation timetable

This consultation will run from 9 August 2013 to 3 October 2013.

After the consultation

We will publish a summary of the comments made, two to four weeks after the consultation closes. Each government organisation involved will decide on its own plan of action, and communicate with users of its statistics accordingly.

How to respond to the consultation

Please send your response to this consultation by the closing date, by email to:

ESP.Consultation@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Myer Glickman

Office for National Statistics

Room 1.063, Government Buildings

Cardiff Road

Newport NP10 8XG

Please use the response form provided at the end of the document if possible.

Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population | Page 3

How to comment on the consultation process

If you would like to make any comments about the consultation process we have followed, please contact:

Lyn Hawkins, Consultations Co-ordinator

Office for National Statistics

Room 1.101, Government Buildings

Cardiff Road

Newport NP10 8XG

2. The methodological change

2.1 What are age standardised rates?

The mortality rates and cancer incidence rates which ONS publishes are mostly 2 ‘age standardised rates’, which are usually expressed as a number of deaths or cases per 100,000 population.

3 For example:

The overall mortality rate in the UK for 2011 was 537.6 deaths per 100,000 population.

4

Cancer incidence rates in the UK for 2008

–10 were 431 per 100,000 males and 375 per 100,000 females.

5

The reason for this is that ‘crude rates’ – that is, the number of deaths or new diagnoses of cancer

(numerator) divided by the population (denominator) – do not allow valid comparisons of risk to be made between different geographical areas or different points in time. The risk of death or disease is, for most conditions, related to age – consequently, a direct comparison between (for example) two districts which have very different proportions of older people is not meaningful.

Using the direct method of standardisation, which is the method used by ONS, the age standardised rate

(ASR) for a particular condition in a specific population can be defined as the rate which would have occurred if the observed age-specific rates for the condition had applied in a given standard population.

This means that the figures produced are adjusted to allow for differences in the age structure of the relevant populations, thus allowing us to make valid comparisons.

2 There are some exceptions, for example the infant mortality rates (the number of deaths of infants under one year old per

1,000 live births).

3 Similar terms used in publications by ONS and other producers of statistics may include: age standardised rates (ASRs), directly standardised rates (DSRs), European standardised rates (ESRs), age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), standardised incidence rates (SIRs).

4 Office for National Statistics. Mortality Statistics: Deaths Registered in England and Wales by Area of Usual Residence, 2011: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/deaths-registered-area-usual-residence/2011/index.html

5 Office for National Statistics. Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the United Kingdom, 2008-10: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/cancer-unit/cancer-incidence-and-mortality/2008-2010/index.html

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Age standardisation is a well-known statistical method, and technical explanations can be found in numerous textbooks and on the internet. A historical review of standardisation methods has been published by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

6 An Excel spreadsheet which demonstrates how age standardisation works can be found on the ONS website.

7

2.2 What is the European Standard Population?

The results of calculating an ASR depend on three sets of figures – the number of deaths or cases of disease, the number of people in the actual population, and the ‘standard population’ which is used for adjustment. The European Standard Population (ESP), which was first introduced in 1976, 8 is used for this purpose. It is an artificial population age structure, adding up to a total of 100,000 persons, as shown in

Table 1. It was intended to represent the ‘shape’ of the population in an average European country.

The ESP has become an accepted methodological standard in health statistics in the UK and the rest of

Europe, and is used in the calculation of ASRs not only by ONS but by other government departments, the

NHS and academic health researchers.

Other standard populations also exist, for example a World Standard Population published by the WHO, 9 and an American Standard Population.

10

6 Ahmad OB, et al. Age standardization of rates: a new WHO standard: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper31.pdf

7 Office for National Statistics. Age-standardised rates: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/user-guidance/health-andlife-events/age-standardised-mortality-rate-calculation-template.xls

8 Waterhouse JAH, Muir CS, Correa P, Powell J, eds. Cancer incidence in five continents. Lyon: IARC, 1976; 3:456

9 Ahmad OB, et al. Age standardization of rates: a new WHO standard: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper31.pdf

10 Anderson RN, Rosenberg HM. Age Standardization of Death Rates: implementation of the Year 2000 Standard. National Vital

Statistics Reports Volume 47, Number 3, 1998

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Table 1: The 1976 European Standard Population

Age group Population

1-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85 and over

Total

Source: Eurostat

6,400

7,000

7,000

7,000

7,000

7,000

7,000

7,000

7,000

7,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

1,000

100,000

2.3 Why is there a need for change?

The age composition of the population of the UK and other European countries has changed markedly since the 1970s. Life expectancy at birth in the UK in 1980-82 was 70.8 years for males and 76.8 years for females, compared to 78.1 years and 82.1 years respectively in 2008-10 11 . This increase in longevity, combined with patterns in fertility, means that the population is now much older than it was 30 or more years ago. The proportion of the UK’s population who are aged 85 and over rose from 1.6% in 1992 to an estimated 2.4% in 2013, and is projected to reach 4.7% in 2033.

12 Although the countries of Europe show a range of different age profiles, the general pattern of current and projected population ageing is similar.

13

The ageing population structure is a particularly important issue for health statistics because death and the onset of disease, for most conditions, tend to occur in older age groups. For example, 27.6% of male deaths and 46.2% of female deaths in England and Wales in 2011 were of people aged 85 years or over.

11 Office for National Statistics. Interim Life Tables, 2008-2010: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lifetables/interim-lifetables/2008-2010/index.html

12 Office for National Statistics. Ageing in the UK Datasets, 2011 Pension Act and 2012 (N.I) Pension Act Update: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/mortality-ageing/ageing-in-the-uk-datasets/2011-pension-act-and-2012--n-i--pension-actupdate/rft-ageing-datasets.zip

13 Giannakouris K. Ageing characterises the demographic perspectives of the European societies. Eurostat, Statistics in focus

72/2008

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Figure 1 shows a comparison of the age distribution of the 1976 ESP and the actual UK population in 2011, based on the Census.

14 It can be seen that the 1976 ESP contains noticeably higher proportions of children, and lower proportions of the elderly, than the actual UK population.

Figure 1: Percentage distribution by age group, 1976 European Standard Population and 2011 UK Censuses

Source: Office for National Statistics

Although it is technically possible to apply age standardisation as a statistical method using any standard population, the practical usefulness of the ASRs calculated depends on having a reasonably realistic relationship between the artificial standard population and the actual populations to which the rates apply. If there is too much difference between the age distributions of the ‘standard’ and the ‘actual’ populations, the results may be misleading – for example the importance of one particular cause of death could be either over- or under-estimated compared to others. This could ultimately lead to inappropriate health policies and inability to target health service resources where they are most needed.

Many diseases and causes of death predominantly affect people at older ages, and in particular conditions such as Alzheimer’s disease and dementia are an increasingly important health issue because of the ageing population.

15 Deaths from heart disease, pneumonia and influenza can occur at any age but

14 Office for National Statistics. 2011 Census, Population and Household Estimates for the United Kingdom: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-270247

15 Office for National Statistics. Death Registrations Summary Statistics, England and Wales, 2011: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/death-reg-sum-tables/2011--final-/rft-death-registration-summary-tables-2011--final-.xls

Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population | Page 7 disproportionately affect elderly people. For health statistics to reflect these trends properly, and to give an accurate picture of the burden of disease in the UK and Europe in the 21 st century, a standard population is needed which reflects the current age str ucture of Europe’s populations better than the 1976 ESP.

2.4 How has the new European Standard Population been decided?

Many experts have recognised this problem with the ESP for a number of years, and Eurostat – the

European Union’s statistical institute – set up a Task Force in 2010 to consider revising it. The resulting report was accepted in 2012 by the Working Group on Public Health Statistics, on which all the countries of the EU are represented. The report is available on the Eurostat website 16 and describes the various options considered by the Task Force, their final recommendations, and detailed analyses of the impact of different standard populations on age standardised mortality rates for each country and for different causes of death.

The principal recommendations of the Task Force were:

The geographical basis for definition of the ESP should be the 27 member states of the European Union

(as of 2012) plus Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, which are similar in their demographic patterns. It was decided not to include other possible countries, such as those awaiting accession to the European

Union, or all those included in the World Health Organisation’s European Region.

Because of the important emphasis on long-term trends in the age structure of the population, the new

ESP should be based on a hypothetical future population, namely the average of all the annual population projections from 2011 to 2030. A number of other options such the 2010 population estimates, the 2011 round of national Censuses, and population projections for other time periods were considered.

The new ESP should be used for 20 years from its introduction, after which it should be revised again to keep up with changes in the population at that time.

The populations of all 30 countries should be aggregated together in the form of a simple unweighted average, so that the population structure of each country has the same influence on the results. This was thought preferable to giving the age structures of the small number of very large countries an overwhelming influence compared to the others.

To recognise increasing longevity, the upper age band of the 1976 ESP, which is 85 years and over, should be divided into 85-89 years, 90-94 years, and 95 years and over. However, the Task Force recognised that separating out the 95 and over age band might be problematic in some circumstances.

The new (2013) ESP is shown in Table 2. Figure 2 compares the percentage age distribution of the 1976

ESP, the UK 2011 Census, and the 2013 ESP. The 2013 ESP follows a similar overall shape to the actual population, and in most age bands is closer to the Census figures. It can be seen that the 2013 ESP resembles a somewhat ‘forward shifted’ pattern relative to the Census, reflecting both its orientation towards future trends and the increasing importance of the older age groups in health issues.

16 Eurostat. Revision of the European Standard Population – Report of Eurostat’s Task Force: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/product_details/publication?p_product_code=KS-RA-13-028

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Table 2: The 2013 European Standard Population

Age group Population

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

1-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

80-84

85-89

90-94

95 and over

Total

Source: Eurostat

7,000

7,000

7,000

6,500

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,000

4,000

5,500

5,500

5,500

6,000

6,000

6,500

7,000

2,500

1,500

800

200

100,000

Figure 2: Percentage distribution by age group, 1976 European Standard Population,

2011 UK Census, and 2013 European Standard Population

Source: Eurostat, Office for National Statistics

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3. Implications for UK statistics

3.1 General considerations

The introduction of the 2013 ESP will have a significant impact on UK health statistics. ONS regularly publishes age standardised mortality rates and cancer incidence rates, and has carried out some preliminary analyses to illustrate the difference between rates calculated using the 1976 and 2013 ESPs, which are presented below. All figures presented here using the 2013 ESP are provisional, and are not published as National Statistics. There are practical issues to be considered on the scope and timing of implementation, and these are addressed in the next section of this paper.

3.2 Mortality rates

Because the 2013 ESP is weighted more heavily towards older ages than the 1976 ESP, and most deaths occur at older ages, there is a significant increase in most age standardised mortality rates. For example, the all-age, all-cause, age standardised mortality rate in England and Wales in 2011 was 526.9 deaths per

100,000 persons using the 1976 ESP. Using the 2013 ESP, the equivalent figure is 975.8 deaths per

100,000, an 85% increase (Table 3). More than two thirds of the leading causes of death in England and

Wales show large increases in ASRs.

Table 3: Age standardised mortality rates per 100,000, all causes, England and Wales

2011, using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP

Using 1976 ESP Using 2013 ESP Difference Percent change

Persons

Males

526.9

623.7

975.8

1163.3

Females 445.8 836.5

Source: Office for National Statistics: provisional figures

448.9

539.5

390.7

85

86

88

The generally higher ASRs produced using the 2013 ESP are very noticeable, but more important in practice is the way in which different causes of death are affected to differing extents. Table 4 shows selected causes of death which have large increases.

As might be expected, causes of death which predominantly affect older ages show the greatest increase in rates, with ASRs for dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, influenza and pneumonia, and cerebrovascular disease more than doubling (Table 4).

Causes of death which mainly occur at younger ages show less increase, or no significant change. There is no substantial change in the mortality rates from drowning, accidental poisoning or homicide, while conditions affecting newborn babies show a very small decrease. Some mortality statistics are limited to deaths at certain ages, for instance under 75 years, and the effect of the change on these figures will not be exactly the same as on figures based on deaths at all ages.

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Table 4: Age standardised mortality rates per 100,000 persons, selected causes,

England and Wales 2011, using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP

Cause of death

Using 1976

ESP

31.9 Dementia and Alzheimer's disease

Influenza and pneumonia

Cerebrovascular diseases

23.8

34.3

Chronic lower respiratory diseases

Ischaemic heart disease

Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung

27.8

68.6

36.6

Source: Office for National Statistics: provisional figures

Using 2013

ESP

76.8

52.7

72.6

53.8

130.5

61.0

Percent change

141

121

112

94

90

67

Figure 3 compares the mortality rates for the 15 causes of death with the highest rates using the 1976 ESP.

Some differences can be seen in the apparent relative frequency of these causes of death, as well as in the magnitude of the ASRs. For example, the order of the conditions which appear second, third and fourth most frequent is reversed, although the differences between them are still fairly small.

Figure 3: Age standardised mortality rates per 100,000 persons, selected causes,

England and Wales 2011, using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP

Source: Office for National Statistics: provisional figures

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3.3 Cancer incidence rates

There is a significant increase in many age standardised cancer incidence rates using the 2013 ESP. The incidence rate in England in 2010 for all cancer sites combined was 422.4 per 100,000 males using the

1976 ESP, but rises to 658.2 per 100,000 using the 2013 ESP. The impact is smaller for females, with the rate increasing from 369.7 to 521.0 per 100,000 (Table 5).

Table 5: Age standardised cancer incidence rates per 100,000, all cancers

1

, England

2010, using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP

Using 1976 ESP Using 2013 ESP Difference Percent change

Males

Females

422.4

369.7

658.2

521.0

1. Excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (ICD-10 C44)

Source: Office for National Statistics: provisional figures

235.8

151.4

56

41

The percentage increase varied by cancer site, with a small decrease (-3%) for testicular cancer, a cancer more common in younger men (Table 6). The highest increases were found in bladder, stomach, colorectal and lung cancer for both men and women (increases between 58% and 76%). The main female cancers

(uterus, ovary and breast) showed increases of 38%, 36% and 30% respectively.

Table 6: Age standardised cancer incidence rates per 100,000, selected cancers,

England 2010, using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP

Cancer site Using 1976

ESP

Males

Bladder

Stomach

Lung

Prostate

Colorectal

Pancreas

Oesophagus

Females

Bladder

Oesophagus

Stomach

Pancreas

Liver

Colorectal

Lung

1. Excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (ICD-10 C44)

Source: Office for National Statistics: provisional figures

5.5

5.2

5.0

8.4

3.2

36.2

38.0

18.2

11.2

56.0

106.3

56.5

10.6

14.4

Using 2013

ESP

9.5

8.9

8.2

13.9

5.2

57.6

60.1

32.2

18.9

93.0

171.2

90.7

17.2

22.6

Percent change

71

69

67

66

64

59

58

76

69

66

61

60

62

56

Figure 4 shows the cancer incidence rates for the 10 most common cancers, for males and females separately. It can be seen that the incidence rates for different cancers are affected differently by the

Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population | Page 12 change of standard population, though with the exception of colorectal and lung cancers in males there is no apparent change in order of importance.

Figure 4: Age standardised cancer incidence rates per 100,000 persons, selected cancers

1

, England 2010, using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP

Males

Females

1. Figures for skin cancer exclude non-melanoma skin cancer (ICD-10 C44)

Source: Office for National Statistics: provisional figures

3.4 Time trends

Although there are substantial absolute increases in many ASRs for both mortality and cancer incidence, the relative effect on changes over time is more modest. For time trends covering a period of 10 years or so, the general shape of the trend is similar whether the 1976 ESP or 2013 ESP is used. The different effects of the two versions of the ESP are likely to be more apparent for much longer time series.

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Figure 5 shows the trend from 2000 to 2009 in ASRs for all cause mortality in the EU as a whole, based on figures in the report of the Eurostat Task Force. Figure 6 compares the percentage change in ASRs between 2000 and 2009 for selected causes of death. For all the causes shown, the percentage change over time is only slightly affected by which version of the ESP is used.

Figure 5: Age standardised mortality rates per 100,000, all causes, European Union

(27 countries) 2000-2009, using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP

Source: Eurostat

Figure 6: Percentage change in age standardised mortality rates per 100,000, selected causes, European Union (27 countries), using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP

Source: Eurostat

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4. Options for implementation

4.1 Implementation challenges

The use of the ESP for the calculation of age standardised rates is a generally accepted methodological convention across official statistics, academia, and the private and charitable sectors, with some exceptions where other methods of standardisation are used for specialised purposes. Although the methodology is well established, however, its implications may not be easily understood by a non-technical audience. This, combined with the size of the increase in rates, makes it challenging to implement a change without significant costs to statistics producers, and the risk of major confusion among statistics users. However, updating the ESP will have long-term benefits for UK health statistics, and the same challenges will have to be faced whenever this step is taken.

Particular issues include:

Statistics producers may need to amend their programs or spreadsheets to take account of the additional age bands in the 2013 ESP. ONS, National Records Scotland and the Northern Ireland

Statistics and Research Agency will have ensure that the 90-95 and 95+ populations are available for agreed time periods and geographies. Appropriate mortality, cancer and other datasets will have to be produced with those age breakdowns.

Statistics producers will need to explain the change to their audiences, and to consider the need to reproduce time series data for comparison between rates based on the 1976 and 2013 ESPs. This may be difficult to achieve within a reasonable timescale in a climate of extremely restricted resources.

Government and NHS indicators and other uses of ASRs in targets, plans or resource allocation formulae will have to be reviewed. Decisions will have to be made on whether to re-base these on the

2013 ESP, carry on with figures based on the 1976 ESP for the time being for continuity, or take some other action.

There will inevitably be a period of time when statistics using both ESPs are in circulation, and it is very unlikely that older publications using the 1976 ESP will all be replaced. The potential for confusion as a result will have to be carefully managed.

4.2 Scope of implementation

ONS intends to implement the updating of the ESP in all the relevant statistics it publishes, which currently divide into two topics – mortality and cancer incidence. While implementation is not a legal requirement, it has been agreed as EU policy and it is expected that all UK producers of official statistics should follow suit.

While statistics producers outside the government sector – for example health charities and individual academics – are not obliged to implement this change, it is clearly in the public interest that all statistical publications using ASRs continue to follow a single methodological standard. Therefore, ONS wishes to do everything practicable to inform those affected and facilitate practical steps towards implementation. We also welcome any suggestions on how to make the technical issues easier to communicate to a broad audience.

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Consultation question 1:

What specific actions could ONS take to facilitate implementation across all statistics producers? What could be done to communicate the issues clearly to all relevant audiences?

4.3 Timing and planning

ONS has considered three basic approaches to the timing of implementation:

Option 1: ‘Big Bang’

Use of the 2013 ESP is introduced on a single date. All statistical publications affected, including time series, are revised and re-released on that date. This approach could reduce the risk of confusion among statistics users, but would be both very resource intensive and difficult to coordinate successfully.

Option 2: ‘Slow trickle’

Statistics producers begin introducing the 2013 ESP from an agreed date, and revise their publications and time series one by one, on each pub lication’s scheduled date of release. This approach would minimise the resource burden on statistics producers, but prolong the change-over period, allowing more potential for confusion among users and difficulty in comparing different statistical series.

Option 3: ‘Controlled flow’

Statistics producers begin introducing the 2013 ESP from an agreed date, revise their publications in an agreed order of priority, and finish all revisions by another agreed date. Decisions on the order of priority might combine usual publication schedules, the timing of resource availability, and specific user requirements such as the need to feed into government indicators. This is ONS’s preferred option, as it would create a lesser burden on statistics producers than Option 1 while potentially reducing the period during which incompatible statistical series are in circulation, compared to Option 2. However it would require careful coordination, and no option will completely avoid both substantial re-working of statistical series and a temporary risk of confusion among users.

Consultation question 2:

Which option for planning implementation should ONS and other official statistics producers follow, and why? When should implementation begin/take place/be completed by, and why?

4.4 Revision of time series

One of the main purposes of ASRs is to allow valid comparisons over time. It will be important to revise statistical series using the 2013 ESP so that time trends can be seen, and any differences from the trends based on the 1976 ESP can be understood. There is obvious potential for confusion if statistics users have to interpret a comparison of ASRs at different time points, calculated on two different ESPs. However, a complete revision of all time series is unlikely to be either sensible or feasible:

Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population | Page 16

Although publication of some key series over a long time period would be desirable for purposes of historical comparison, it should be remembered that the reason for updating the ESP is that the 1976

ESP is no longer appropriate in 2013. The corollary is that the 2013 ESP would be equally inappropriate for calculating 1976 figures. It might be logical to select the mid-point between 1976 and 2013 (1994-5) for the change-over.

The time and cost involved in revising time series will increase disproportionately as the period to be covered increases, because in many cases older data are not readily available. Some older historical data might have to be converted from legacy IT formats or even manually entered from printed tables.

The level of detail available, for population estimates as well as mortality and morbidity data, is also likely to decrease in older sources. It may be impracticable to obtain the necessary population breakdowns for lower level geographies beyond 2000.

Because of these considerations, ONS proposes that statistical series should not generally be revised beyond 1994. This would match the proposed length of time series for international comparison to be revised by Eurostat. It should be noted that the potential to revise some times series may be further limited by the availability of population estimates and issues with different geographical boundaries. ONS will investigate the feasibility of allowing statistics users to approximate the effect of the 2013 ESP on time series which are not revised, by means of comparability ratios.

Consultation question 3:

Would revision of time series back to 1994 (or later for series started subsequently) meet most user needs, and what are the exceptions?

Consultation question 4:

What are the most important time series to revise, and why, in order of priority and for what geographies?

4.5 Use of the 95+ upper age band

The Eurostat Task Force considered the use of the ESP only at national level. Some mortality and cancer statistics in the UK are produced at lower geographical levels such as local authorities and NHS areas.

There are two possible challenges in the use of the 2013 ESP for these geographies, and at even smaller levels:

ONS does not currently produce annual population estimates for the specific ages 95 years and over.

The oldest age band regularly published at lower level geographies is 85+, but figures are available for

90+ for some geographies. Some work is needed to develop the population estimates methodology to produce reliable 95+ populations, and there is likely to be a limit on how far back in time such estimates can be produced.

Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population | Page 17

There is some concern that the relatively small populations but high age-specific rates at age 95+ could lead to disproportionate instability in the ASRs at smaller geographies. If that is the case, it might be reasonable to implement the 95+ upper age band at national level and a 90+ upper age band at lower geographies. ONS plans to investigate this issue in parallel with the consultation period, but initial views are welcome.

Consultation question 5:

Is there a strong case for implementation of different upper age bands at different geographical levels, and if so why?

© Crown copyright

VERSION 1.0 : 02-08-13

Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population | Page 18

Annex 1: Official statistics publications using age standardised rates

17 18

Department of Health

Publication http://www.dh.gov.uk/

Next release National

Statistics

Yes Abortion Statistics, England and Wales

Health and Social Care Information Centre (HSCIC) 19

Publication

TBC http://www.hscic.gov.uk

Next release National

Statistics

Compendium of Population Indicators

Age standardised mortality rates for various causes of death and age groups

185 indicators

Years of life lost from various causes of death

– 34 indicators

Cervical Screening Programme, England

– 2 indicators

Compendium of Population Indicators

Age standardised incidence rates for various cancer sites

– 36 indicators

NHS Outcomes Framework

Age standardised mortality rates for selected conditions and age groups

– 4 indicators

Breast Screening Programme, England

– 2 indicators

Compendium of Population Indicators

Age standardised incidence rates for selected infections

– 4 indicators

NHS Outcomes Framework

Potential years of life lost from amenable causes

– 2 indicators

Compendium of Population Indicators

Age standardised rates of hospital admissions for selected reasons and ages

14 indicators

National Records Scotland

Publication

Oct 2013

Oct 2013

Dec 2013

Dec 2013

Feb 2014

April 2014

June 2014

TBC

No

Yes

No

No http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk

Next release National

Statistics

Yes

No

No

No

Age-standardised death rates calculated using the European Standard Population

Vital Events Reference Tables 2011, Table 1.7

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

Publication

Aug 2013

Aug 2013

Yes

Yes http://www.nisra.gov.uk

Next release National

Statistics

Registrar General Annual Report, Northern Ireland Nov 2013 Yes

17 Publications are listed within government department, in order of next scheduled date of publication (if available).

18 The inadvertent omission of any publication from this list should not be taken to imply that that publication will not be affected by the change to the 2013 ESP.

19 The HSCIC publishes some of the statistics listed on behalf of the Department of Health, NHS England or Public Health England.

Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population | Page 19

Office for National Statistics

Publication

Death registrations summary tables

Deaths involving Clostridium difficile

Deaths involving MRSA

Deaths related to drug poisoning

Deaths registered

Cancer incidence and mortality in the UK

Deaths by area of usual residence

Mortality mapping tool

UK alcohol related deaths

UK suicides

Injury and poisoning mortality

Cancer statistics registrations, England

Intercensal mortality rates by NS-SEC, England and Wales

Proportion of deaths occurring in place of usual residence

The Scottish Government

Publication

Long Term Monitoring of Health Inequalities, 2013 Report http://www.ons.gov.uk

Next release National

Statistics

July 2013

Aug 2013

Aug 2013

Aug 2013

Nov 2013

Dec 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2014

Jan 2014

Jan 2014

Feb 2014

June 2014

TBC

TBC

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics

Next release National

Statistics

Oct 2013 No

Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population | Page 20

Consultation response form

Your name: ___________________________________________________________

Position/title: ___________________________________________________________

Institution/organisation: _______________________________________________

Contact email: ___________________________________________________________

Do you want your response to be treated as confidential? YES / NO (circle)

Consultation question 1:

What specific actions could ONS take to facilitate implementation across all statistics producers?

What could be done to communicate the issues clearly to all relevant audiences?

Consultation question 2:

Which option for planning implementation should ONS and other official statistics producers follow, and why? When should implementation begin/take place/be completed by, and why?

Consultation question 3:

Would revision of time series back to 1994 (or later for series started subsequently) meet most user needs, and what are the exceptions?

Consultation question 4:

What are the most important time series to revise, in order of priority and for what geographies?

Consultation question 5:

Is there a strong case for implementation of different upper age bands at different geographical levels?

Do you have any other comments?

Responses can be sent by email to: ESP.Consultation@ons.gsi.gov.uk

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