IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE ATTAINMENT OF
THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN NIGERIA –
EVIDENCE SUBMITTED BY AFRICAN FOUNDATION FOR
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT, ABUJA NIGERIA.
PREAMBLE:
Nigeria is the tenth most populous country in the world and the largest
in sub- Saharan Africa.
Nigeria is one of the fastest growing nations in the world. The
Nigerian population has more than doubled since she attained
nationhood in 1960. With the data obtained from the past censuses,
the Nigerian population increased sharply from 54 million in 1963 to 88
million in 1991. Presently, the Nigerian population is estimated to be
about 133 million. It is hoped that the National Census scheduled to
hold on the 21st – 25th of march, 2006 would provide a more accurate
data of Nigeria’ s population.
With the annual population growth rate of 2.9 percent which is nearly
the same as the annual GDP growth rate (3.5 percent), Nigeria’s
population will double in the next twenty five years.
By 2015 (the year benchmarked for the attainment of the MDGs)
Nigeria’s population is estimated to be about 178 million.
Although, Nigeria is rich in human and natural recourses, it is currently
ranked among the 13 poorest countries in the world.
With per capital income falling significantly to about $ 300 (below the
sub-Sahara average of $450) approximately 90 million of Nigeria’s 133
million people (about 66 percent) are living in absolute poverty i.e. in
less than one dollar a day.
Thus, Africa’s attainment of the Millennium Development Goals
depends to a large extent on Nigeria’s Commitments to poverty
reduction.
Following the return of democratic rule in 1999, the Nigerian
government has shown remarkable commitment to the attainment of
the MDGs through various reform programmes / initiatives. Of utmost
significance is the formulation of a home – grown National Economic
Empowerment and Development strategy (NEEDS) which has been
described as Nigeria’s version of the MDGs. NEEDs has been
replicated into the state Economic Empowerment and Development
Strategy (SEEDS) and Local Economic Empowerment and Development
Strategy (LEEDS ) at the state and local government levels
respectively .
It is also important to note that at the policy level, Nigeria has
recently expressed a profound appreciation of the inextricable linkage
between population and sustainable development as succinctly
expounded at the International Conference on Population and
Development ICPD’ 94 vide the launching of a New National Population
Policy which is significantly tagged “ National Policy on Population for
Sustainable Development”.
While these reform programmes and policies are indeed landmark
developments that have began to paint some positive signs on the
nations economy, at least , at the macro economic level, Nigeria’s
report card following a review of the MDGs + 5 is a clear picture of
poor – performance, with little or no prospect of meeting the Goals.
Unfortunately, while several factors have been identified to be
responsible for Nigerian’s poor performance MDG – wise, the
population factor is treated as a non – issue.
It is however obvious that Nigerian’s population growth rate is clearing
unsustainable and has a direct bearing on the nation’s socio-economic
development.
For the purpose of this presentation, we intend to present a
situational analysis of the impact of Nigeria’s population growth on the
attainment of the MDGS with specific emphasis on the following goals:
poverty and hunger, child mortality and maternal health which
represent core – issues of our work.
GOAL NO 1: ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER.
Poverty reduction is the core of the MDGs and Nigeria’s medium term
development programme – National Economic Empowerment and
Development Strategy (NEEDS). And to give impetus to the goal of
poverty reduction, the Federal Government has established a
specialized agency on poverty reduction called “National Poverty
Eradication Programme (NAPEP)”.
Over the period 1980 – 1996, the proportion of poor people’s rose
from 28.1% in 1980 to 65.6% in 1996. This translated to 17.7 million
poor people in 1980 and 67.1 million people in 1996. Presently, inspite
of government’s on-going reform programmes and poverty reduction
strategies, the proportion of poor people is still very high about 66%
of the population which translates to about 90 million poor people.
By 2015, it is expected that the economic reform programmes will
begin to bear fruits and the population of poor people will reduce to
about 40 million people.
Poverty in Nigeria is also known to be deep and pervasive.
Poverty used to be more pronounced in the rural areas compared to
urban areas. Between 1986 to 1992, there was a reduction in poverty
in rural areas while poverty rates in urban areas remained relatively
unchanged. Following 1992, poverty increased rapidly in both urban and
rural areas.
Since 1996, the gap in the figures had almost disappeared pointing to
an emerging urban crisis.
Though 64 percent of Nigerians live in rural areas, the country is
experiencing rapid rural – to – urban migration leading to severe
strains on urban infrastructure. Rapid urbanization in the face of
declining economics has contributed to poor housing conditions,
inadequate water supply and waste disposal, congestion, high rates of
unemployment and under – employment, human trafficking, child labour
crimes and other social problems, The Nigerian government, at all
levels, is continually, challenged to mobilize sufficient resources for
social sectors services to meet the basic needs of Nigeria’s
overwhelming population.
Recently, the United Nations Commission in Human settlement
(Habitat) classified Lagos as the world’s fastest growing city and
predicted that by 2010, Lagos would become the world’s most populous
city with a population of over 24 million people.
Incidentally, the Economic intelligence unit also recently listed Lagos
among the five worst cities in the world to live, and this implies that
by 2015, Lagos would become the worst city in the world to live.
Unfortunately, while the National Millennium Development Goals
Report 2004 – Nigeria Produced by the UN and the Nigerian
government outlines the major challenges to poverty reduction
including social. economic, political, cultural and environmental factors
the population factor is clearly missing.
It is however a fact that the rate of population increase in Nigeria is
clearly unsustainable and that the population growth directly and
indirectly affect Nigeria’s economic development especially in the
areas of per capital income, size of labour force, new jobs required,
child dependency ratio etc.
Nigeria has a young population compared to more advanced countries.
More than two in five Nigerians are below 15 years old and will enter
child bearing ages. By 2015 the number of women in the reproductive
age bracket will be about 45 million.
The implication of this high young population bracket is that Nigeria’s
dependency ratio is much higher and of course, high dependency ratios
affect family and society in several ways including incidence of more
children per adult to provide with food, clothing, education, housing
etc, more non – working household members, social service costs must
be paid by a small group, social problems are exacerbated etc.
The government at all levels, is equally faced with the challenge of
providing essential services to this overwhelming, growing population as
the incidence of high fertility naturally leads to increased demands on
the economy and social services.
In the Health sector for instance, the government’s capital
expenditure on immunization would rise from about US$30 million in
2000 to US $80m in 2015. The total cost of vaccines would increase
from $20 m in 2000 to about $70 m in 2015.
This same scenario also persist in virtually every other sector of the
economy.
The poverty situation in Nigeria is precarious not only in terms of
income poverty but also in terms of food poverty. In 1990, the
proportion of under weight children (under five years of age) stood at
35.7% but declined to 28.3% in 1993. In 2001, however, it rose to
30.7%.
This figure is far from the 2015 target figures estimate of 17.8%,
13.2% and 19.3% respectively.
GOAL NO. 4: Reduce child mortality
The Report of the National Millennium Development Goals (2004)
indicates that not much progress has been made in reducing child
mortality.
A recent National Demographic and Health Survey (2003) put under –
five mortality rate as 217 per 1000 with large regional variations.
According to the target of the goal under consideration, there must
be a reduction by two- thirds of under – five mortality by 2015. This
means that by 2015, Nigeria should be able to reduce under five
mortality to 49 per 1000, a situation that is most unlikely except
enough resources and political will is mustered in this direction.
According to the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), 64% of
births in Nigeria are classified as high risk birth. Approximately 88,
400 of the 340,000 infant deaths each year representing 26% are
preventable if women practice healthy fertility behaviour.
The place of rapid population growth in the incidence of high infant
mortality rate is clearly evident. To provide adequate health care
services for Nigerian children and meet the target of reducing under
five mortality by two-thirds, Nigeria would require at least 40,000
midwives and 400,000 nurses coupled with the overwhelming cost of
immunization and vaccinations.
GOAL NO. 5: Improve Maternal Health
Nigeria has one of the highest levels of maternal mortality in the
world, at approximately 1000 per 100,000 live births in the late 1990s
to 2001.
There are over 31 million women of reproductive age (15 – 49 years) in
Nigeria. These women gave birth to over 5.4 million children in 2003,
and the annual number of births is rising.
An obvious strategy to reduce maternal mortality and morbidity in
Nigeria is to increase access to and use of maternal health services.
The National HIV/AIDS and Reproductive Health Survey (NARHS)
revealed that the use of maternal health care services is quite low.
While 62% of women reported attending an antenatal care clinic at
least once during pregnancy, only 34% had skilled attendants at births,
and only 41% received post natal care.
As stated earlier, the fertility ratio in Nigeria is high (5.2%) and
aspirations are even higher (6.2)
Nigerian women, as earlier indicated, engage in high risk fertility
behavior too young (before 18 years of age), too old (after 34 years of
age), too close together (less than 24 months apart), and too many
(birth order more than 3).
The challenges to the attainment of this target include teenage
pregnancy, harmful traditional practices, lack of health personnel and
other infrastructure, particularly in rural areas.
CONCLUSION
The Targets Of The New National Population Policy Include:
a. To reduce the infant mortality rate to 35 per 1,000 live births
by 2015.
b. Reduce the child mortality rate to 45 per 1000 live by 2015.
c. Reduce the maternal mortality ratio to 125 per 100,000 live
births by 2010 and to 75 by 2015.
d. The reduction of the National Population Growth rate to 2% or
lower by 2015.
e. Reduction in the total fertility rate of at least 0.6 children
every five years.
f. Increase in the modern contraceptive prevalence rate by at
least 2 percentage annually.
While these targets are quite laudable, the major challenge
however, is in their pragmatic implementation. To ensure the
attainment of the MDGs require Nigerian government and
international development partners to muster the necessary
political will and mobilize enough resources for the implementation
of the MDGs.
Signed:
For: African Foundation for Population and Development (AFPODEV)
Ikechukwu Ezekwe Esq
President
AFPODEV
Plot 1302 Yola Street
Area 7 Garki Abuja.
Tel: 234-9-2908587, 234-80-34016647
E-mail: afpodevcentre@yahoo.com
REFERENCES:
a. National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development
(2005).
b. Millennium Development Goals Report 2004 Nigeria
c. DFID – Country Assistance Plan for Nigeria, December
2004.
d. Reproductive Health in Nigeria-situation, response and
prospects published by the Enhance project, June 2005.
e. The New National Population Policy and Census 2005
Published by AFPODEV.