HS2 = Jobs and Growth for Britain
BIRMINGHAM, BRISTOL, CARDIFF, EDINBURGH, GLASGOW, LEEDS, LIVERPOOL,
MANCHESTER, NEWCASTLE, NOTTINGHAM, SHEFFFIELD
High Speed Two Consultation Launch:
Position Statement on HS2 and High Speed Rail from UK Cities
Introduction
The Government has published its preferred route for High Speed Two (HS2) and launched a
national consultation.
Our cities are issuing this statement as a call to action to support HS2 as a first step in creating a
national High Speed Rail (HSR) network.
Our business partners and councils believe that there is a compelling economic and
environmental case for HSR and we are committed to bringing it to all 11 of our cities. A national
HSR system will1:
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directly create 30-40,0002 jobs and support up to a million more3;
reshape and rebalance the economic geography of Britain, closing the gap between the
South East and the rest of the country;
deliver £125 billion of economic benefit;
cut carbon by 1 million tonnes a year and safeguard the environment; and
allow Britain’s economic infrastructure to compete with the rest of the world for business.
A scheme of this ambition means there will be some tough decisions, but this is a moment to
think big about the future of our country and economy. If we want growth for the long term, we
need this infrastructure to deliver.
We are a group of 11 major UK cities – Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds,
Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham, and Sheffield – the English Core Cities Group
plus the economically most important cities in Scotland and Wales. Signatories to this statement
include members of the main political parties and we urge cross-party support at the national
level for HS2 and HSR.
These cities will drive Britain’s economic recovery, but need to have the infrastructure to be able
to do so. Businesses will lead the economic recovery and they need good connectivity to reach
their markets. For business to prosper it needs speedy, reliable access to other cities, London
and international gateways; businesses serving the local economy need these more broadly
focused companies if they too are to prosper. Business location and expansion decisions are
based on a long term view; there is value in knowing that there is an agreed plan for the future.
‘Fast Forward: A High-Speed Rail Network for Britain’ Greengauge21, 2009
‘HSR in Britain: Consequences for employment and economic growth’, KPMG for Greengauge 21, 2010
3
‘Our Cities, Our Future’, Core Cities Group 2011 www.corecities.com NB, dependent on local and global
economic influences
1
2
We call upon the public, our private sector partners and local and national leaders of all major
political parties to get behind HS2 and bring jobs and growth to Britain, and ask you to sign up to
support our Pledge for Growth (http://www.highspeedrailuk.com/) and respond to the
Government’s consultation.
The challenge
Britain faces a long term economic challenge to move into recovery and growth, competing on an
international stage. Reduced funding to the public sector places an emphasis on private sector
jobs and growth, which our cities can deliver. Britain needs the South East’s economic
contribution, but we can also unlock greater growth elsewhere by investing in HSR.
It is our cities that will drive this growth and underpin the national economy. The Core Cities and
their primary urban areas alone produce 27% of England’s economic output, more than London,
with Glasgow and Edinburgh home to just over 20 % of Scotland’s population but generating
around 31 % of Scotland’s economic output4. They could do more with the right infrastructure in
place. Our view is based on evidence, set out below.
Nations across Europe are investing in HSR, and this is both a threat and an opportunity: it
makes other countries a better location for investment, but it offers the prospect of getting
multiplier benefits from our own investment by linking to European networks.
The nation has a massive infrastructure deficit - £500billion5 over the next decade on
Government estimates - and we lag behind our closest competitors. The UK ranks only 34th in
the world for its infrastructure, behind Saudi Arabia and Malaysia, and 6th amongst the G8
countries6. 1.5% of UK GDP is spent on infrastructure compared to 6% in Japan and 3% in
France, contributing toward France having 20% greater productivity despite its less flexible labour
markets7.
This is not a situation that can continue if we want to be globally competitive. The OECD states
that infrastructure investment should be one of the top three priorities for the UK over the medium
term. Other economies are quickly catching up and we stand to lose out in an economically
critical period.
The evidence
A recent study by Oxford Economics8 showed that the newly designated ‘Local Enterprise
Partnership’ areas around the eight Core Cities alone could produce an additional 1 million jobs
and £44 billion economic output over the next two years, dependant on a number of growth
factors, including infrastructure investment. A similar relative quantum of growth would in all
probability be likely for Cardiff, Edinburgh and Glasgow under the right economic conditions.
Congestion costs business £23.3 billion a year. HS2 is an important first step to avoiding this
costly problem. An additional £125 billion in growth will result from a national HSR network.
4
Measured as Gross Value Added using NUTS 2 data
st
‘Delivering a 21 Century infrastructure for Britain’, Helm, D, Wardlaw, J & Caldecott B, Policy Exchange,
2009
6 World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report (WEF 2009-2010)
7
‘Avoiding the Infrastructure Crunch’, Association for Consultancy and Engineering, 2010
8 ‘Our Cities, Our Future’, Core Cities Group 2011 www.corecities.com
5
Carbon emissions are growing and oil prices are rising, with ‘peak oil’, the moment at which
production will decline, around the corner. HSR will move 30 million journeys from other modes
to rail and save 1 million tonnes of carbon, every year.
Therefore HS2 is a vital first step to unlocking massive economic and environmental
improvements locally and nationally, making us globally more competitive. We will shortly reach
capacity on existing lines and simply upgrading what we have is not sustainable, and neither is
just building more roads; there is no plan B.
Investment in a national HSR network will:
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strengthen existing and generate new economic and business flows and interactions, worth
£125billion to the economy;
at £69billion, more than pay for itself in a relatively short period of time;
decrease congestion and travel-time wasted, which costs £23.3billion a year, improving
productivity and performance;
increase rail and decrease air and car journeys by 30 million journeys a year;
widen labour pools and increase employment opportunities, creating 40,000 jobs directly and
supporting a million more (CHECK);
provide a catalyst to improve local public transport networks;
enable new business and economic flows between cities;
reduce carbon emissions by 1 million tonnes a year, improve air quality and achieve targets;
and
bring UK infrastructure up to competitive international standards.
We are calling for the UK to follow China, Spain, Japan and France - world leaders in HSR – and
implement a comprehensive high speed network serving the whole of the country. A new high
speed line serving the length of the UK is capable of providing capacity for 15,000 passengers an
hour each way: twice the capacity of the West Coast, East Coast and Midland mainlines together.
The use of double-deck trains would also increase the capacity of the line by 40%. A new highspeed line would not only significantly boost to the national infrastructure itself, but also release
capacity on the existing network when long distance services transfer to the new line. This opens
up the opportunity to radically to provide new services where previously there were none and to
improve the quality of existing services, expanding business and employment potential through
improved commuter networks.
HSR and the economy
HSR has the potential to radically transform the economies not just of major cities, but also of
surrounding connected towns and cities, extending advantages far beyond the stations that
directly serves. Ensuring that HSR is properly integrated into the classic rail and other public
transport networks will mean that the maximum number of people benefit from the advantages of
the network, reducing journey times for business and leisure. The regeneration benefits of HS2,
the first stages of a full network, will ripple out into a much wider catchment area, creating jobs for
people living in towns, villages and cities in the surrounding areas.
The country’s existing rail infrastructure is currently reaching capacity; to date we have responded
by upgrading what is already there. This is no longer sustainable, nor is it good value for money.
Modernisation of the West Coast Mainline was due to cost £2bn, take 6 years, and deliver
maximum speeds of 140mph. In fact the final scheme cost £8.8bn, took 9 years, and provided for
maximum speeds of 125mph. Despite this work, the line is expected to reach full capacity by the
early 2020’s, and some sections much earlier than this. In addition to the West Coast Mainline
there are capacity problems on the East Coast, Midland and Great Western Mainlines. It is clear
that given the strategic importance of these lines to the economy, we cannot suffer years of
disruption and delay for upgrades which will not deliver what is needed, and must instead plan for
a new high speed rail line which runs in addition to the existing classic network.
According to The British Chamber of Commerce, congestion costs business £23.3bn a year. A
full HSR network linking the major cities of the UK would cost up to £69bn and would generate
over £125bn of economic benefits. These benefits are derived from improvements in journey
times, and crowding, reductions in road congestion, environmental improvements and the
economic benefits arising in the release of capacity on the conventional rail network. It also
includes the beneficial effect on the productivity of businesses through changes to employment
patterns and agglomeration effects.
This is mission critical to UK PLC, seeking to compete in a global market place in the 21st Century
with a currently fragmented infrastructure that will not match that of our closest economic
competitors.
Climate change
HSR, and HS2 as a first step, has considerable and calculable environmental as well as
economic advantages. At a time of increasing concern over climate change and carbon
emissions, HSR has the potential to assist in the meeting of the UK’s carbon reduction and air
quality targets by attracting passengers from domestic air services and private car journeys.
At average loadings, high speed rail emits 30g of carbon per passenger kilometre, compared to
120g for aviation, and 105g for car (new car average) meaning that for every journey transferred
from plane to rail CO2 emissions are reduced by 75%, and 71% for car to train transfers.
However, rail, being electrically powered, is only as clean as its energy source; which at present
is some of the most carbon intensive in Europe. The Climate Change Act 2008 committed the
country to an 80% reduction in greenhouse gasses by 2050 on 1990 levels. With these
proposals put it place it is conceivable that HSR could reduce its carbon output by 96% by 2055
to 1.3g of carbon per passenger kilometre. Measures to reduce the environmental impact of
plane, and improvements in electric car technology could see their carbon emissions reduced to
51g for planes and 4g for car.
Forecasts suggest that by 2055 a full HSR network could be carrying 30 million journeys which
would otherwise be made by air, and 13 million from car journeys. This would indicate that high
speed rail could deliver carbon saving of around one million tonnes per year, but a full national
network is needed to create this modal shift.
Journey times
Evidence from elsewhere in Europe has shown that where a journey can be made in under three
hours, rail can capture 50 to 60 per cent of the market from airlines – a figure that grows to 90 per
cent if the journey takes less than two hours. And in a country the size of the UK, no two major
cities need be more than three hours apart via high speed rail. In Europe, the introduction of a
high speed service between Madrid and Seville saw rail increase its share of the market from
33% to 88%, and aviation’s share reduce from 67% to 16%; services between Paris and Brussels
lead to an 108% increase in rail, a 30% reduction in car trips, and a 72% drop in plane journeys,
albeit on a small original base.
Whilst aviation will always have an important role in economic development; significant modal
shift from plane to train will also free up slots at airports which can then be used for more valuable
international journeys, reducing development requirements at and around airports, and
strengthening the UK’s competitive position.
Summary
Our cities and business partners believe the time has come to recognise the step change in
economic and environmental performance that can be brought about through high speed rail. We
are supporting the implementation of HS2 as a first step toward a comprehensive high speed rail
network linking all our cities, to provide the UK with the domestic infrastructure necessary to
compete in the international marketplace. HSR has already demonstrably achieved the required
results elsewhere in Europe and across the globe, and can work here in Britain.
With HSR the goal of a united, strong and sustainable British economy, allowing growth to
happen in many places and delivering benefits across the whole of the country can be realised.
Although only part of the economic and environmental solution, the view of these cities is that
without it we will fall short of meeting both our ambitions and our needs, and increasingly be
perceived as a less attractive international business location.
Yours sincerely,
City Leaders
Councillor Mike Whitby
Leader, Birmingham City Council
Councillor Barbera Janke
Leader, Bristol City Council
Councillor Rodney Berman
Leader, Cardiff City Council
Councillor Jenny Dawe
Leader, Edinburgh City Council
Councillor Gordon Matheson
Leader Glasgow City Council
Councillor Keith Wakefield
Leader, Leeds City Council
Councillor Joe Anderson
Leader, Liverpool City Council
Councillor Sir Richard Leese
Leader, Manchester City Council
Councillor David Faulkner
Leader, Newcastle City Council
Councillor Jon Collins
Leader, Nottingham City Council
Councillor Paul Scriven
Leader, Sheffield City Council
Business leaders
Jerry Blackett
Chief Executive of the
Birmingham Chamber of
Commerce Group
George Cowcher
Chief Executive Derbyshire and
Nottinghamshire Chamber of
Commerce
David Wade Smith
Chairman of Livesmart
John Early
Chair, Shadow Greater
Manchester Local Enterprise
Partnership
James Ramsbotham
Chief Executive of the North
East Chamber of Commerce
Group
Colin Skellett,
Chair, West of England Local
Enterprise Partnership
James Newman
Chair, Sheffield City Region
LEP