EVALUATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUBPROGRAMME OF THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT
PROGRAMME FOR THE BIENNIUMS 1992-1993, 1994-1995, 1996-1997, AND FOR THE
PERIOD OF THE 1992-1997 UNITED NATIONS MEDIUM-TERM PLAN
PREPARED FOR THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME EVALUATION UNIT AND
CORPORATE PLANNING AND ACCOUNTABILITY SERVICE (CPAS)
by
Professor Richard Samson Odingo
Consultant
October, 1997
Na.97-8404
231297
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Acknowledgements
I would like to acknowledge the assistance afforded to me by the
programme staff of the Atmosphere Unit, especially Mr. Peter Usher, Mr.
Alusa, Mr. Michael Short, Mr. Ravi Sharma, and Ms. Megumi Seki. In
addition I wish to acknowledge the assistance of the administrative staff
in the Unit, who made my work smooth during the one-month period. Special
thanks also go to Mr. Backson Sibanda, Chief, Evaluation Unit, and Ms.
Mela Shah for their constant interest and advice during the evaluation.
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CONTENTS
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......................................................... 6
RECOMMENDATIONS........................................................... 8
INTRODUCTION............................................................. 11
A.
Background................................................... 11
B.
Legislative authority........................................ 12
C.
Purpose and methodology of evaluation........................ 13
Chapter
I.
PROGRAMME DESIGN AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS............................... 14
A.
Appropriateness of the subprogramme.......................... 14
B.
Efficiency and effectiveness of subprogramme objectives...... 16
C.
1.
Efficiency in attaining the subprogramme objectives.... 16
2.
Effectiveness of the subprogramme objectives........... 16
3.
Sustainable development................................ 17
4.
Relevance and effectiveness of assessment methodologies 18
5.
Capacity-building...................................... 19
Analysis of projects in relation to subprogramme objectives.. 20
1.
Evaluation of WCIRP for the 1994-1995 biennium......... 22
2.
Evaluation of the WCIRP project on impacts of climate
variability and change on social and economic systems
and policy response options - January December 1995.... 23
3.
Evaluation of the RISO/UNEP Collaborative Centre on
Energy and Environment (Activity 13) for the
1994-1995 biennium..................................... 24
4.
Evaluation of the climate impacts and response
strategies networks for Africa (CIRSNet/Africa),
phase 1, project on capacity-building in climate
change activities...................................... 24
5.
Evaluation of the project on capacity-building in the ...
6.
Impact of climate variability and change on social
and economic systems 1989-1993......................... 26
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fiel
II.
IV.
Assessment of the micro-project on the analysis of ......
8.
Evaluation of GEF projects in the
atmosphere subprogramme................................ 27
9.
Conclusions from the project analysis.................. 30
D.
Quality and utility of subprogramme outputs.................. 31
E.
Organizational structures of the subprogramme................ 33
1.
Subprogramme elements.................................. 33
2.
Staffing and staffing roles............................ 34
IMPLEMENTATION..................................................... 35
A.
III.
7.
Evaluation of strategies and modalities used................. 35
1.
Programme networks..................................... 35
2.
Network newsletter..................................... 35
3.
Capacity-building...................................... 35
4.
National climate action programmes..................... 36
5.
International action plan.............................. 36
6.
Use of GEF funds for enabling activities............... 36
7.
Country case-studies................................... 37
8.
Costing studies........................................ 37
9.
Public awareness activities............................ 37
PROBLEMS AND CONSTRAINTS ENCOUNTERED............................... 37
A.
Programme/project development and management................. 37
B.
Resource allocation.......................................... 38
C.
Interlinkages................................................ 41
LESSONS LEARNED.................................................... 43
Annex
Terms of reference....................................................... 45
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List of abbreviations used in this report
ACMAD
African Centre of Meteorological Application for
Development
African Ministerial Conference on the Environment
Climate Change Information Exchange Programme
Climate impacts and response strategies network for
AMCEN
CC:INFO
CIRSNet/Africa
Africa
DC/PAC
Desertification Control Programme Activity Centre
ENSO
El Nino Southern Oscillation
FAO
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FEWS
Famine Early Warning Systems
GAW
Global Atmospheric Watch
GCOS
Global Climate Observing System
GCTE
Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems
GEF
Global Environment Facility
GEO
Global Environment Outlook
HDP
Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme
IGBP
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
(IIASA)
IOC
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (of UNESCO)
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ICSU
International Council of Scientific Unions
IUCC
Information Unit on Climate Change
NASA
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NCAR
National Centre for Atmospheric Research
OCA/PAC
Oceans and Coastal Areas Programme Activity Centre
OECD
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
SAC
Scientific Advisory Committee
SADC
Southern African Development Community
UNCED
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
UNEP
United Nations Environment Programme
UNESCO
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization
WCIP
World Climate Impacts Assessment Programme
WCIRP
World Climate Impact Assessment and Response Strategies
Programme
WCP
World Climate Programme
WHO
World Health Organization
WMO
World Meteorological Organization
WRI
World Resources Institute
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. Since its establishment, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
has been active at various levels of the human environment, and has set a
programme of work on all its aspects, including the atmospheric
environment, which is the subject of this evaluation. From the very
beginning the atmosphere was given pride of place in UNEP activities, in
recognition of its centrality in all environmental matters of concern for
survival of the human race. This interest is linked less to atmospheric
science as such, which is normally the province of the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), and more to the impacts of climate and other aspects of
the atmosphere on human populations, which, before UNEP, did not have a
champion within the United Nations system.
2. Early action on climate and other atmospheric issues tended to emphasize
assessment and monitoring, and there were few activities to reduce
atmospheric pollution or effects to understand the impacts of climate
variability. In the 1970s these were viewed in the context of the "outer
limits" of tolerance for global ecological systems, when UNEP had a
programme on outer limits. In 1977, an independent Climate Unit was
established in the Division of Environmental Assessment, at a time when
UNEP was stressing the need for global environmental assessment. Later,
the Climate Unit was housed in the Global Environmental Monitoring System
(GEMS), although it was not formally intended to be part of that programme.
But the situation changed markedly when the importance of protecting the
atmospheric environment became an international priority, under the
leadership of UNEP. The new concern arose following a series of
international conferences held at the instigation of UNEP and others,
between 1979 and 1990.
3. Interest in what humans are doing to the ozone layer, another part of
the atmospheric environment, came earlier than climate impact concerns, and
corrective activities in which UNEP was much involved started with an ozone
layer meeting in Washington DC, which gave rise to a World Action Plan to
be coordinated by UNEP. Eventually, the negotiations led to the Vienna
Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer in 1985, followed by the
Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 1987.
4. The Climate Agenda, in which UNEP played the role of lead agency in the
United Nations system, developed more slowly. The issue of climate change,
which was highlighted in a special publication of the Scientific Committee
on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), was fully funded at the research
and subsequent levels by UNEP, and it succeeded in bringing the attention
of the international community to the adverse impacts on human populations
of climate variations and climate change.
5. An examination of the UNEP atmosphere subprogramme in the context of an
evaluation of the period 1992-1997 has revealed progress made by UNEP in
mounting a viable programme of work to meet the global challenge of being
the centre and focus of international activities for the protection of the
Earth's atmospheric environment. Between 1992 and 1995 the Subprogramme
was at its strongest, adequately staffed, and with adequate resources to be
able to implement its programme of work with tangible outputs at various
levels. Unfortunately the decision was made to mount an expensive and
rather unwieldy programme on the impacts of climate change before adequate
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preparations had been made on the ground, as a complementary effort by
Governments was lacking and this made the coordination mechanism unwieldy.
Judging by the outputs and the international response, a certain amount of
success was achieved. This was also the euphoric period following the
coming into effect of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), assessments. At country
level, there were a series of country studies containing analyses of
climate variability and climate change impacts, work on methodologies of
greenhouse gas emission inventories, on mitigation cost studies, on impacts
and adaptation assessment work, on the model analysis of strategies to
respond to climate change, as well as work on strategies to address drought
impacts.
6. The subprogramme's umbrella project, the World Climate Impact and
Response Strategies Programme (WCIRP), had been launched with several
countries participating, using the methodologies which had been produced by
IPCC. It is not clear why, but the back-stopping required for such an
active and ambitious project was not always forthcoming, although UNEP
succeeded in involving the various international agencies of the
United Nations, such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO),
the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and
the World Health Organization (WHO), in addition to other national and
international non-governmental organizations. One clear achievement was
that the response strategies to climate change that were being used around
the world had been underwritten by the UNEP atmosphere subprogramme.
7. A detailed analysis has been made of selected projects which have been
used by the subprogramme to reach the world, and to meet the mandate of
UNEP in matters relating to the atmosphere. To judge from the ample
resources which were available at the beginning of the evaluation period a
more imaginative outcome in terms of meaningful activities mounted by the
subprogramme could have been expected. Instead, the subprogramme has
tended to cling to the only major international obligation under the World
Climate Programme, by which UNEP was expected to be responsible for the
climate impacts and response strategies, although some useful work was also
done on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in south-east Asia and
Africa. It is true that, with the establishment of IPCC, and the coming
into force of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, there was an
urgent demand for work on methodology, where UNEP had a clear edge. But,
considering the substantial funds which were available between 1992 and
1995, much more could have been achieved in building up strong national
climate change activities in the developing countries. An examination of
the work programmes of the subprogramme has revealed that not enough has
been done to assist countries with economies in transition which are
clearly part of the mandate of UNEP. The needs of the developing countries
and countries with economies in transition have increased markedly as a
consequence of their expected response to the provisions of the Framework
Convention on Climate Change. In the context of the high level of
resources which were available up to 1995, this was clearly a lost
opportunity, which must be blamed on the subprogramme management, and the
Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) which guided the scientific work of the
subprogramme.
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8. In 1995, an administrative decision was taken to omit the subprogramme
from the budget for the next biennium, and this had the effect of bringing
most of the work to a standstill and leaving the international obligations
of UNEP in the atmosphere subprogramme unfulfilled. Secondly, as resources
available to UNEP for programmatic work have dwindled, the future of the
atmosphere subprogramme has clearly been left in doubt, with all its staff
funded from different programmes under a shared staff arrangement that has
not been particularly effective in ensuring programme delivery. The only
exceptions are the two staff members responsible for the Global Environment
Facility (GEF) projects, one of whom is a consultant paid for by GEF. Two
of these projects concern the development of a handbook on methods for
assessing impacts of climate change and adaptation measures, as well as six
country studies on impacts and adaptation strategies. The second staff
officer is responsible for several small projects, under the enabling funds
portfolio of GEF, which are intended to assist several developing countries
to prepare national communications in connection with the Framework
Convention on Climate Change.
RECOMMENDATIONS
9. An evaluation of the UNEP atmosphere subprogramme has revealed the
manner in which the subprogramme evolved, and the increasingly important
role it has come to play in UNEP. The subprogramme has been the main
vehicle used by UNEP in fulfilling its global mandate to protect the
Earth's atmospheric environment from damage by human activities. In spite
of this clear niche and role, it has been clearly established in the course
of the evaluation that there is some ambivalence in UNEP about the role the
subprogramme should continue to play. Having examined all these issues in
the context of what the subprogramme has been doing to date, the following
recommendations for appropriate action are made:
Recommendation 1
10.
It is recommended that, in order to clarify the role to be played by
the atmosphere subprogramme within the UNEP work programme, the first most
important outcome from the present evaluation should be for UNEP to make an
early decision on whether it wishes to continue to have an atmosphere
subprogramme beyond the current biennium, 1996-1997. In the event that
UNEP management does not wish to continue the atmosphere subprogramme, it
should outline how it proposes to deal with the programmatic implications,
including the political fallout.
Recommendation 2
11.
It is recommended that, should there be a management decision to keep
an atmosphere subprogramme in UNEP, ways and means should be found to
provide it with adequate resources and staff to enable it to carry out its
proper functions. As already explained in the main text of this
evaluation, it is not possible to keep a poorly funded subprogramme, and to
expect it to leverage its own resources to keep it afloat, because the
leveraging of resources requires a programmatic staff presence to prepare
and to justify requests. A continuing subprogramme will require additional
staff resources to enable it to mobilize outside financial resources from
GEF, and bilateral donors.
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Recommendation 3
12.
In the same context, should UNEP management decide against retaining
the atmosphere subprogramme, it will be necessary to take certain steps to
honour existing international obligations. It is therefore recommended
that, adequate arrangements be made, for the takeover of the functions of
the subprogramme, including all current international obligations, which
include responsibility for the climate impacts and response programme
within the World Climate Programme of 1979; assistance to IPCC; support to
the Framework Convention on Climate Change; support to the Montreal
Protocol; support to the new Climate Agenda; support to the Global Climate
Observing System (GCOS); reporting on chapter 9 of Agenda 21; and taking
care of UNEP responsibilities for atmospheric pollution reduction
programmes. In order for the subprogramme to meet its ongoing financial
and programmatic commitments, it should be provided with adequate
resources.
Recommendation 4
13.
It is recommended that, in future activities of a new atmosphere
subprogramme, if there is to be one, greater use be made of
non-governmental organizations, especially from developing countries, and
countries with economies in transition, in efforts to implement UNEP
programmes for the protection of the Earth's atmospheric environment. In
the past there has been a tendency to use non-governmental organizations
from developed countries only, but, in future, it is also recommended that
only those non-governmental organizations which have fulfilled their last
commitments to the subprogramme should be allowed to bid for projects,
together with those from other parts of the world. The subprogramme should
continue to strengthen its efforts to link national and international
non-governmental organizations to ongoing programmes, such as country
studies.
Recommendation 5
14.
It is recommended that a properly staffed atmosphere subprogramme, as
recommended above, embark on an aggressive project development for GEF and
donor funding, in order to enable UNEP to fulfil its international
obligations associated with protection of the atmospheric environment.
Recommendation 6
15.
It was observed during the evaluation that there are several
subprogrammes in UNEP which need or use climate information in fulfilling
their part of the UNEP global mandate. These include the subprogrammes on
oceans, freshwater, biological biodiversity, land degradation and
desertification, forestation and forest degradation, degradation of fresh
and marine waters. There is room for meaningful interlinkage and
interaction of these activities within UNEP and it is therefore recommended
that efforts be made to bring together, or to link more closely, all these
in-house activities in the context of sustainable development.
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Recommendation 7
16.
As the global community, and especially the developing countries and
countries with economies in transition, begin to align their economies in
response to the provisions of the Framework Convention on Climate Change
and any protocol that may emanate from Kyoto and beyond, the need for
action at the national level will increase markedly. To anticipation of
this, it is recommended that the new atmosphere subprogramme, if there is
to be one, focus on assistance to Governments and technical backstopping at
the national level, in order to help those nations to incorporate climate
impact adaptation and mitigation strategies into their own national
development plans. This can be done through direct programmatic support as
well as through capacity-building.
Recommendation 8
17.
Recent developments within the climate change debate have tended to
veer too much in the direction of energy economics. The current atmosphere
subprogramme of UNEP covers more than this narrow approach. It is
recommended that UNEP avoid the temptation to shift all its atmosphere work
to the energy subprogramme in Paris, as there is no guarantee that the
broader issues currently covered will not be forgotten.
Recommendation 9
18.
It has been noted that there have been programmatic changes directed
at the atmosphere subprogramme, as resources to UNEP have dwindled. It is
recommended that, in the future, an inventory of UNEP international
obligations be kept so that any reduction in resources to the subprogramme
recognizes the implications of such resources reduction and programme
changes to its partners and other international programmes within the
purview of UNEP.
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INTRODUCTION
A.
Background
19. One of the cardinal principles espoused by the United Nations
Conference on the Human Environment, held at Stockholm, 5-16 June 1972, was
the protection and improvement of the human environment, in the interest of
preserving the well-being of peoples and economic development throughout
the world; the Conference underlined the fact that this was "the urgent
desire of the peoples of the whole world and the duty of all Governments".
Principle 2 of the Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the
Human Environment states:
"The natural resources of the earth, including the air, water, land,
flora and fauna and especially representative samples of natural
ecosystems, must be safeguarded for the benefit of present and future
generations through careful planning or management, as appropriate".
20. It was for very good reason that the Stockholm Conference put the
atmosphere as the first item on its agenda. It is therefore to be hoped
that UNEP will continue to ensure that the atmosphere, and the need to
protect it for present and future generations, will always be placed high
on its agenda. If this line of reasoning is accepted, then UNEP will want
to have a creditable agenda, as well as work programmes to ensure that this
pride of place is not lost. The original and subsequent additions to the
UNEP mandate call for UNEP to provide general policy guidance for
environmental programmes within the United Nations system, and to keep
under review the world environmental situation, in order to ensure that
emerging environmental problems of wide international significance receive
consideration. These include:
(a)
Addressing the uncertainties;
(b)
Promoting sustainable development;
(c)
Preventing stratospheric ozone depletion; and
(d)
Transboundary atmospheric pollution.
21. As far as the atmosphere is concerned,the basis and justification for
action by the international community is its concern about the impacts of
climate change and climate variability, air pollution and ozone depletion,
which have created new demands for scientific, economic and social
information to reduce the remaining uncertainties in these fields. The aim
would be to promote a better understanding and prediction of the various
properties of the atmosphere and the affected ecosystems, as well as health
impacts and their interaction with social and economic factors.
Consequently, Governments were expected:
(a) To promote research related to the natural processes affecting
and being affected by the atmosphere, as well as the critical linkages
between sustainable development and atmospheric changes, including impacts
on human health, ecosystems, economic sectors and society; and
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(b) To ensure a more balanced geographical coverage of GCOS and its
components, including Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) and its related
databases.
B.
Legislative authority
22. Since 1972 the resolutions of the General Assembly and the decisions
of the Governing Council of UNEP on environmental issues in general and
reference will be made below to those decisions which are specific to the
atmosphere subprogramme. While the General Assembly resolutions have
continued to affirm the importance of UNEP to continue to serve as the
global environmental conscience within the United Nations system, this
mandate was subsequently strengthened by chapter 38 of Agenda 21 and, by
the Nairobi Declaration adapted by the Governing Council at its nineteenth
session. In noting the work done by the atmosphere subprogramme on studies
of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce
uncertainties, the Governing Council endorsed a proposal for the
establishment of an interagency climate agenda and "urged the relevant
international organizations to align their climate related activities
according to the priorities of the agenda and to implement those activities
within available resources, and to establish adequate reporting and
coordinating mechanisms for the World Climate Programme (WCP) towards the
achievement of the aims of the agenda". The World Climate Programme had
been established at the World Climate Conference in 1979, within which UNEP
would be responsible for the implementation of that component of WCP
concerned with climate impact assessment. This arrangement was endorsed by
the UNEP Governing Council in 1980.
23. Agenda 21, adopted by the United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development (UNCED) in 1992, went still further in strengthening the
mandate of UNEP in many areas, including strengthening its catalytic role
in stimulating and promoting environmental activities and considerations
throughout the United Nations system. It also emphasised the need to
promote international cooperation in the field of environment and to
recommend, appropriate policies to this end, in the areas of environmental
monitoring and assessment, and the coordination and promotion of relevant
scientific research, with a view to providing a consolidated basis for
decision-making, the development of international environmental law,
environmental impact assessments, information exchange on environmentally
sound technologies and the promotion of regional and subregional
cooperation.
24. The atmosphere subprogramme remains central to all these concerns,
both old and new, and also because it is the only element which interfaces
with all others - oceans, the lithosphere and the cryosphere.
Consideration of atmospheric issues is thus fundamental to the UNEP
programme. The atmosphere has interlinkages with almost every
environmental issue, while the atmosphere in general, and climatic
variability and climate change in particular, have implications for all
sectors, including water, natural ecosystems, biodiversity, the oceans and
coastal areas, desertification, etc. In developing management and
monitoring as well as assessment programmes for each of these, it is
essential to make provision for a climate element. It is therefore
interesting to note how such programmes are developed, and to examine the
in-house relationships between them and the atmosphere subprogramme, which
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is the topic of the present evaluation.
25. As indicated in the terms of reference (see annex 1), this evaluation
is concerned with an examination of the operation of the atmosphere
subprogramme over the period 1992-1997, with special focus on the programme
bienniums, 1992-1993, and 1993-1995, with a view to identifying its
contribution to the fulfilment of the mandate of UNEP in dealing with
global environmental problems. This has also been one of the most active
periods for the subprogramme, following the establishment of IPCC in 1988
by UNEP and WMO, and in connection with the signing of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change at Rio in 1992.
26. Discussions in the UNEP Governing Council on 21 May 1993 dealt with
the forthcoming intergovernmental meeting on WCP, recommended at the Second
World Climate Conference in 1990. The discussions on the Climate Agenda
centred around a proposal for an integrating framework for international
climate-related programmes, including all the climate-related activities of
international organizations, which had been prepared jointly by UNEP, FAO,
the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), United Nations
Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and WMO in cooperation
with government representatives. These discussions fully acknowledged the
responsibility which had been given to UNEP during the 1979 World Climate
Conference, to be responsible for the climate impacts programme within the
WCP and its future responsibilities within the Climate Agenda. The Agenda
was designed for maximum synergy. Areas which would be considered included
support for the work of the Framework Convention on Climate Change,
implementation of Agenda 21 and support for the work of IPCC. Emphasis was
laid on capacity-building as a priority in developing countries and
countries with economies in transition.
27. At the June 1994 session of the Executive Committee of WMO, the
proposal that UNEP should be responsible for coordinating international
activities under Thrust 3 of the Climate Agenda, namely, "Studies of
climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce
vulnerabilities," was endorsed. At its eighteenth session, the UNEP
Governing Council agreed to the role of UNEP under Thrust 3 and urged the
relevant international organizations to "align their climate-related
activities according to the priorities of the Agenda, and to implement
those activities, within available resources". In addition they were urged
to establish adequate reporting and coordinating mechanisms towards the
achievement of the aims of the Agenda.
28. The Climate Agenda would also require the participation of
Governments, involving a strengthening national climate programmes as
recommended by the Intergovernmental Meeting on WCP, and promoting the
building of the scientific and technical capacity of developing countries
and countries with economies in transition.
C.
Purpose and methodology of evaluation
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29. The purpose of the current evaluation is to assess the performance of
the UNEP atmosphere subprogramme for the period 1992-1997 (see the terms of
reference at the end of this report), in the context of the UNEP mandate of
providing catalytic leadership in global environmental problems. It is
also to determine the effectiveness of the subprogramme in promoting
sustainable development practices and strategies towards the protection of
the atmospheric environment, as well as the methodologies which have been
used to achieve those aims. Second, the purpose of this evaluation is to
establish the extent to which the subprogramme has succeeded in building
the capacity of Governments around the world to cope effectively with the
environmental impacts of climate change, as well as the extent to which it
has promoted consensus-building and appropriate strategies to meet those
challenges. The evaluation is also intended to establish whether or not
the projects undertaken have been relevant to subprogramme objectives, to
identify the strategies and modalities employed, the organizational
structures used, and the extent of successful coordination with other
United Nations bodies, as well as other international organizations and
non-governmental organizations. Finally, the evaluation is intended to
study the problems affecting programme delivery, with suggestions of
possible approaches to dealing with them. On the basis of its observations
of lessons learned, the evaluation undertakes to include appropriate
recommendations in ways of improving of the subprogramme performance in the
future.
30. The methodology of the evaluation comprised the reviewing of projects
and activities of the subprogramme, set against the programme and budget
documents made available to the consultant,and covering the period
1992-1997. A review has also been made of the work programme for the
period in question, set against the broader planning framework known as the
UNEP medium-term plan, and the system-wide medium-term environment
programme for the period 1990-1995.
31. The method used consisted of extensive information gathering through
interviews with programme staff in the subprogramme as well as outside, and
the perusal of documents made available for the purpose. The strategy
followed consisted of daily interaction with staff of the atmosphere
subprogramme, as well as other units relevant to its operations. Detailed
reviews were also made of individual project documents, reports and
publications, financial reports, the proceedings of SAC, self-evaluation
fact-sheets, etc.
I.
A.
PROGRAMME DESIGN AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Appropriateness of the subprogramme
32. The UNEP target for the system-wide medium term planning period which
ended in 1995, where the atmosphere subprogramme was concerned, was clearly
stated to be the further elaboration of a range of policy alternatives to
address climate modification and change in atmospheric conditions caused by
the greenhouse effect and related to the preparation of a legal instrument
address this modification and change. During this period, the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted and the First
Meeting of the Conference of the Parties of that Convention was held.
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33. The activities set in operation by the subprogramme pursuant to the
recommendations of the UNEP scientific advisory committees included the
following:
(a)
Work on climate variability and change;
(b)
Assessment of ozone layer modification;
(c) Support for activities related to technical aspects of the
Framework Convention on Climate Change;
(d) Development of global and regional networks on various aspects of
the atmosphere with the purpose of developing legal instruments and
guidelines for the protection of the atmospheric environment; the Climate
Convention Information Exchange Programme;
(e) Support for policy meetings of technical committees, for IPCC and
the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), as well as for
networks of national climate impact programmes.
34. The mission of the subprogramme was redefined as endeavouring to
catalyse national and international action to protect the atmospheric
environment, by facilitating consensus-building and response strategies,
identifying research needs and making available assessment methodologies
related to climate variability and change, in addition to protection of the
ozone layer and ambient air quality, in cooperation with United Nations
Organizations, specialised agencies, Governments and non-governmental
organizations.
35. Altogether there were three activities identified under the
subprogramme element climate variability and the ozone layer, one of which
dealt with atmospheric pollution, and 13 activities under the umbrella
project of climate change impacts assessment and response strategies. The
activities were identified with the aim of reducing the impact of climate
variability and/or change on social and economic systems and providing
support for the work of partners in the climate field, such as IPCC, the
Framework Convention on Climate Change, WCP, the African Ministerial
Conference on the Environment (AMCEN), as well as for country case studies
(greenhouse gas sources and sinks) and for work on methodology for
greenhouse gas abatement costing studies.
36. The work programmes were extremely relevant to the priorities of UNEP,
namely, combating climate change in all its aspects as well as protecting
the ozone layer. The research programmes and other activities were
designed to produce a better focus on the regional and national impacts of
climate change, to reduce the impacts of climate variability and change on
social and economic systems, to promote endogenous capacity-building to
enable Governments to respond to the requirements of the Framework
Convention on Climate Change, as well as to produce internationally
coordinated and funded climate-related programmes at various levels
(national and international), to help address the problems of climate
variability and change. Finally, one of the plans also addressed the
priority areas of the Climate Agenda, including the development of
methodologies for climate impact studies which would be replaceable and
widely applicable. In all these endeavours, the atmosphere subprogramme
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15
worked with many international partners, Government, intergovernmental
organizations, non-governmental organizations and international
organizations and bodies, including WMO, UNESCO, FAO, ICSU, IOC, WHO, the
Framework Convention on Climate Change, IPCC, the African Centre of
Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) and Climate Network
Africa (CNA).
37. These climate-related activities by UNEP were fully consistent
with its responsibilities in providing the leadership and playing the vital
catalytic role in matters related to the protection of the atmosphere, and
in responding appropriately to the aims and requirements of the WCP. The
final objective of UNEP was for the atmosphere subprogramme to work with
various agencies, international organizations, Governments and
non-governmental organizations, with the aim of achieving maximum synergy.
The Climate Agenda, was intended to involve Governments through the
strengthening of national climate programmes and to contribute to building
the scientific and technical capacity of developing countries, and
countries with economies in transition, to address climate impacts and put
in place possible response strategies.
B.
Efficiency and effectiveness of subprogramme objectives
1.
Efficiency in attaining the subprogramme objectives
38. At the beginning of the evaluation period, the atmosphere subprogramme
had a clearly stated mandate and adequate funds with which to
operationalize that mandate, up to 1995. The mandate was conveniently
divided into the subprogramme elements dealing with protection of the ozone
layer; control of urban-based atmospheric pollution; and control of the
impacts of climate variability and climate change on the global community.
An examination of the activities undertaken by the atmosphere subprogramme
during the two bienniums, up to 1995, to respond to the mandates in each
area of concern, and of the corresponding outputs confirms that the
available funds were used both efficiently and purposefully. In the
initial stages, however, there was a tendency - as admitted by the
subprogramme management - to "throw funds at problems", rather than wait
for a clearer definition of the problems to be addressed and of the
appropriate strategies to achieve maximum results. This was unfortunate,
because in the last and current bienniums, the expectations of various
organizations and institutions for further funding could not be met. The
real problem affecting the efficiency of the operations may, however, have
had to do with the requirement for project funds to be all spent within the
allocated time limit in each biennium, and the fact that in most cases
funds became available at the end of the biennium.
2.
Effectiveness of the subprogramme objectives
39. The atmosphere subprogramme effectively falls within the mandate of
UNEP, as set out in General Assembly resolution 2997 (XXVII) of 15
December 1972, which created the Programme. The efficiency and
effectiveness of the overall performance of UNEP may be gleaned from an
assessment of how the individual subprogrammes into which its work is
divided perform. The atmosphere constitutes one of the three major parts
of the environment (oceans, lands, atmosphere) and, within that, several
issues of great importance to human survival have arisen. The UNEP
/...
16
strategy for dealing with these problems has been centred in the atmosphere
subprogramme. The first such problem is the release by human populations
of substances which deplete the ozone layer (chlorofluoromethanes and
chlorofluorocarbons), with consequent harmful effects on people and the
environment. It was this which led to the establishment, within the
subprogramme, of a section dealing with atmospheric pollution, within which
activities to limit damage to the ozone layer have been based. The second
problem concerns aspects of the impacts of climate variability and climate
change caused by the emission into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases.
This in turn has led to activities complementary to the World Climate
Research Programme, which seek to clarity the processes of climate
variability and climate change, and involve studies of vulnerability, of
the impacts of climate change and of its social and economic implications,
as well as identifying the range of possible mitigative and adoptive
responses that might be considered. Thirdly, in order to respond fully to
the mandate of UNEP, the subprogramme has, over time, been supportive of
assessment and monitoring programmes, particularly those under the GCOS
programme of WMO.
40. Following UNCED and the adoption of Agenda 21, an additional general
objective was added when UNEP was designated as task manager for several
priority areas addressed in Agenda 21, including for chapter 9, "Protection
of the atmosphere", of particular relevance to the activities of the
atmosphere subprogramme.
41. The effectiveness of the atmosphere subprogramme in relation to the
mandate and objectives of UNEP can be measured by the extent to which the
subprogramme has been able to catalyse national and international action to
protect the atmospheric environment. The most prominent of these concern
climate impacts and response strategy studies, as well as the
identification of research needs in the area of climate change, including
the perfection of methodologies for impact studies, for mitigation
strategies and for greenhouse gas emission inventories. In all these
activities, the subprogramme has been able to involve active partners
within the United Nations System, such as WMO, FAO and IGBP, as well as
Governments and non-governmental organizations.
42. The rationale of the subprogramme was to enable UNEP to fulfil its
mandate by encouraging appropriate action at the international, regional,
subregional and national levels to protect the atmosphere from damage
resulting from human activities, such as the emissions of greenhouse gases
into the atmosphere, leading to atmospheric pollution and anthropogenic
climate change.
43. As a means of measuring both the efficiency and the effectiveness of
the subprogramme's performance, a review has been made of a sample of
projects within the main areas of activity, to see whether or not they have
met their targets.
3.
Sustainable development
44. The subprogramme has been responsible for preparing the input on the
atmosphere, required under chapter 9 of Agenda 21, for the report of the
Commission for Sustainable Development concerning the implementation of
Agenda 21. Other activities include a further report and support for the
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work and sharing of the secretariat costs of GCO, support for the World
Climate System Monitoring Programme of WMO, and assistance to all
Governments, through Background Air Pollution Monitoring Programme,
especially those of developing countries, to monitor, assess and manage
ambient air quality and the sources and impacts of atmospheric pollution at
the local and national level, to facilitate their cooperation with WHO and
WMO in the protection of human health and the environment. Financial
constraints have meant that these latter projects have had to be
discontinued, however. In addition, because of the climate change
implications related to the transport and energy sectors of the world
economy, the subprogramme had to prepare a targeted report covering these
two areas for use by the Commission on Sustainable Development.
45. Climate variability and climate change, and even the depletion of
the atmosphere's ozone layer, all pose a threat to sustainable development.
One of the outcomes of the subprogramme's activities in responding to the
challenge of climate change was the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change.
46. The subprogramme has targeted its activities in such a way as to
improve knowledge about the regional and national impacts of climate
change, and means of reducing the impact of climate variability and change
on social and economic systems, ensuring better protection to the ozone
layer (through the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol), making the
world's cities more inhabitable by inculcating better management of air
quality through the provision of improved methodologies, standards and
guidelines for the assessment of air quality, and promoting
capacity-building so that people are better able to advice on climate
change mitigation policies, and climate research and assessment and the
application of research results for improved management of the climate.
4.
Relevance and effectiveness of assessment methodologies
47. In the field of air pollution the methodologies generated by GEMS/Air
with support from the Atmosphere Unit, together with the standards and
guidelines provided, have made it possible for cities in developing
countries to obtain the capacity to monitor and assess air quality.
48. In the area of risks to the stratospheric ozone layer, adequate
mechanisms have now been established under the auspices of the Montreal
Protocol to make a spirited effort to tackle the problem. Though
international cooperation there is now an active research effort to improve
understanding of the problem in all its ramifications. The Atmosphere Unit
arranged for the assessments prior to 1985. Its only subsequent action has
been to serve on the assessment panel on impacts and to report on the state
of the ozone layer.
49. In the area of climate change assessment and response strategies, the
methodologies that have been developed through work by UNEP and assessment
efforts by IPCC have ensured that an impressive start has been made in
producing an unchallenged international effort on greenhouse gas emissions
and an assessment of impact and adaptation and mitigative responses that
are broadly comparable. IPCC is now concentrating in methodologies for
impact studies at the regional and national levels, and this should make it
possible for all collaborative efforts (between and among UNEP, WMO, ICSU,
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etc.) to arrive at an effective way of dealing with the climate change
problem.
5.
Capacity-building
50. In each area of the subprogramme there has been an effort to provide
in-house capacity-building. Unfortunately, this has largely consisted of
only one or two workshops and seminars, calculated to reach a sizeable
proportion of the concerned scientific and policy communities. Examples
include a project in Bali, Indonesia, which targeted climate change and
response strategies in an island context in the Asia-Pacific region. Here
the subprogramme can claim that, by the end of the project (FP 0103-95-40),
at least about 20 better informed and trained scientists to deal with
climate change and related issues had been produced. Capacity-building
should involve more than that, however. The IPCC programme, which is
cosponsored by UNEP and WMO as well as international and national
organizations, mainly from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) has had a more elaborate built-in programme of
assistance to developing countries and countries with economies in
transition. The aim was to facilitate the participation in all IPCC
meetings and writing groups for the various assessments by scientists from
those countries through the creation of a trust fund to pay for these
activities. More substantial achievements could have been expected from
this project. The atmosphere subprogramme has contributed to the running
of the secretariat in Geneva, as well as to the Trust Fund of the IPCC.
The evaluation found only one specific project (project FP/910/-95-52), on
capacity-building in the field of climate change. Capacity-building also
featured, however, in the ENSO working groups on usable science in all the
country studies, including those with the International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The enabling activities can also be
regarded as capacity-building, and the establishment of the African Centre
for Meteorological Application & Development (ACMAD), was another specific
example of capacity-building and institutional development. Finally, the
GEF project funding to the IPCC proved to be a particularly effective means
of capacity-building, as it enabled many individuals from developing
countries and countries with economies in transition to participate in the
meetings and the deliberations of IPCC.
51. Just as it participated in ensuring the success of IPPC and the
participation in its deliberations by developing countries and countries
with economies in transition, so UNEP also supported all the sessions of
the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on
Climate Change - an example of capacity-building sponsored by UNEP, which
involved the generation of scientific knowledge through country studies for
assessment by IPCC as follows:
(a) Through the UNEP/OECD/IPCC Working Group 1, methodologies for
compiling GHG inventories were developed and tested in an eleven-country
study funded by GEF;
(b) Climate impact assessment studies were undertaken in Brazil,
Viet Nam, and jointly in the south-east Asian countries of Indonesia,
Malaysia and Thailand;
(c)
Country studies on the costs of greenhouse gas emission and
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abatements were implemented for UNEP by the RISO/UNEP Collaborating Centre
on Energy and Environment (Denmark). The study was carried out in three
developing countries and two industrialized countries.
52. The above are all examples of the role played by the atmosphere
subprogramme in building the capacity of Governments to cope with the
environmental impacts of climate change and climate variability, as well as
in helping with consensus-building and response strategies. For several
years prior to the evaluation period, the UNEP atmosphere subprogramme had
been responsible for one of the largest climate research projects,
involving extensive capacity-building and working closely with Governments
and other international organizations starting with WMO. This is WCIRP, an
umbrella project which enables UNEP to carry out many activities to promote
a better understanding of climate change, climatic variation and their
impacts on ecosystems, as well as on human populations. This project has,
at the same time, enabled UNEP to meet its mandate of protecting the
atmosphere through a range of carefully selected activities. Among the
impressive activities and studies - including publications - undertaken
within WCIRP we may note the following:
(a) Support to IPCC and to the Intergovernmental Negotiating
Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change;
(b)
Coordination of WCP;
(c) Capacity-building measures in the area of drought-preparedness,
including through the conduct of a workshop in Namibia in 1993, and a
workshop on the El Nino Southern Oscillation/Famine Early Warning System
(ENSO/FEWS) held in Budapest in November 1993;
(d) Activities related to capacity-building in the developing
countries, with examples from activities in Africa;
(e) Opportunities for capacity-building, resulting from the various
country study programmes supported by the atmosphere subprogramme during
the evaluation period - from 1992 to 1995. These involved three areas of
activity relevant to climate change methodology development for inventories
of greenhouse gases, (sources and sinks of greenhouse gases), methodology
development for climate impact adaptation strategies, and greenhouse gases
abatement costing studies;
(f) A specific GEF-funded project to support the participation of
experts from developing countries and countries with economies in
transition, which was very successful and effective.
C.
Analysis of projects in relation to subprogramme objectives
53. The primary objective of any subprogramme within UNEP is to make a
contribution to the global mandate of providing leadership on global
problems, and crafting an appropriate agenda to galvanize the international
community in tackling them.
54. In the case of the atmosphere subprogramme, the clearly stated
objectives of its work programme were as follows:
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(a) To catalyse national and international action to protect the
atmospheric environment by facilitating consensus-building and response
strategies;
(b) To identify research needs and to make available assessment
methodologies related to climate variability and change;
(c) To promote protection of the ozone layer and the ambient air
quality in cooperation with United Nations organizations and specialized
agencies, Governments and non-governmental organizations.
55. The subprogramme identified needs in each sector of its work
programme, and planned specific activities to address them. Nearly all the
activities were fashioned in the form of projects which set out to respond
to those identified needs. Project planning was done with the knowledge,
and often the contribution, of several agencies in the United Nations
System,as well as of Governments and non-governmental organizations. In
the 1992-1993 biennium, for example,the partners participating in projects
were as follows:
Project
Partners
Climate variability and change
Impacts
UNESCO, IIASA, World Recources
Institute (WRI), Stockholm
Environment Institute (SEI),
Governments
Assessment of Ozone Layer
Modification
WMO and Governments
Support for technical aspects of
the Framework Convention on
Climate Change
WMO, UNESCO, FAO, Governments
Development of regional networks
on chemical composition of the
atmosphere in relation to
climate change
WMO, ICSU, SCOPE, Governments
Support for policy meetings; and
support to IPCC and IGBP; also
support to national networks of
national climate impact
programmes
WMO, UNESCO, ICSU/IGBP, National
Centre for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR)
56. During the second biennium under evaluation (1994-1995), there were
three activities dealing with climate variability and ozone layer,
involving several United Nations and non-governmental organization
partners. In addition, there were to be partners in UNEP itself for some
of the projects, for example, the Oceans and Coastals Areas Programme
Activity Centre (OCA/PAC), the Desertification Control Programme Activity
Centre (DC/PAC), the Freshwater Unit, and others. The purpose of involving
many players from various sources was to achieve maximum synergy at all
levels, and thereby create a strong movement for the protection of the
atmosphere.
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57. In 1995, in consequence of a decision to make the atmosphere a
cross-cutting issue within the Environment Programme, the atmosphere
subprogramme was totally omitted from the budget presented to the UNEP
Governing Council, without making proper provision for honouring existing
obligations, including finding resources to maintain the staff of the
subprogramme. This naturally led to a drop in the number of projects to be
undertaken, and made it very difficult to service projects which had not
been completed.
58. By taking a closer look at individual projects, it will be possible to
measure these against the subprogramme objectives, and to assess the extent
to which UNEP is meeting its obligations.
1.
Evaluation of WCIRP for the 1994-1995 biennium
59. This umbrella project has for years been used to handle many
activities related to climate change impacts on the international
community. Justification for its use has been based on the following:
(a) The need to increase the capacity of countries to implement the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change;
(b) The need to coordinate climate impact-related activities, in
particular climate impact research and assessments, as part WCP activities
in support of IPCC;
(c) The need for common guidelines for the conduct of national
assessments of the impacts of climate change and response strategies.
60. The project made it possible for the atmosphere subprogramme to
achieve some tangible results, including:
(a) Capacity-building calculated to meet common commitments required
under the Framework Convention on Climate Change;
(b) International, coordinated and funded set of climate-related
programmes at various levels, able to carry out climate impact research and
assessment and application in a coherent and integrated way in keeping with
the mandate of UNEP;
(c) Production of widely available methods for climate impact
studies, which are both applicable and comparable.
61. In this umbrella project there were 13 activities under the first of
these, one third of the resources available during the biennium were used
to cover the costs of the WCP secretariat through sharing the costs of the
senior secretariat staff and ad hoc consultants, and the costs of
coordination of WCP and WCIRP.
Comment
62. The umbrella project has remained central to the activities of the
atmosphere subprogramme of UNEP, with clear aims and achievements as
follows:
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(a) It has made it possible for the subprogramme to respond
adequately to the needs of IPCC and the Framework Convention on Climate
Change for information assessed by IPCC on climate impact and response
strategy studies;
(b) It has been able to focus attention on the need for increased
preparedness in connection with climate change and sea-level rise and
responding to drought and other adverse climatic events;
(c) It has enabled the subprogramme to assist developing countries to
develop and operate national climate impact assessment and response
strategies programmes, using country studies as a basis for their own
requirements;
(d) It has assisted developing countries to build, within their own
national climate programmes, capacities for education, training and public
information, with the aim of promoting endogenous capacity-building;
2.
Evaluation of the WCIRP project on impacts of climate
variability and change on social and economic systems and
policy response options - January-December 1995
63. As can be seen from the earlier evaluation of a project with a similar
name, this particular project was a new manifestation of the work the
atmosphere subprogramme has been carrying out with a number of institutions
in the world on climate impacts on society. It should be noted that, as
indicated by its new title, the project now included policy response
options. This followed the recommendation of the Second World Climate
Conference to extend the mandate of WCIRP to address possible response
options in the event of measured climate impacts on society. As well as
NCAR of the United States of America, which has been a long time research
collaborator with the UNEP subprogramme, and WMO, this new project now
found new partners in the Human Dimensions Programme (HDP), Geneva, and was
to assist participants from developing countries in attending an HDP
symposium. In its new form, some of the most important low-cost activities
of the project included a project on an Indonesian small island study (the
Bali Study) on the impacts of climate change and policy response options to
mitigate and adapt to climate change in Indonesia. Another was the
detailed planning workshop for the global change and terrestrial ecosystems
(GCTE) rice network. UNEP supported and co-sponsored the Asian leaders
summit on climate change. The umbrella project also included staff costs
as well as other activities.
Comment
64. To judge from the listed expected output, the achievements of the
project were rather modest, considering the funds involved ($912,800). One
tangible product was the proceedings of the Asian Pacific Leaders
Conference on Climate Change, which included recommendations for regional
action plans to combat climate change. One of the listed outputs namely,
the action plant to study climate change impacts, is still in the proposal
stage, and while potentially useful to the Governments and the
international community in general, remains to be developed. However,
notwithstanding criticism levelled at the umbrella projects in the past,
they still enable the subprogramme to carry out a large number of
/...
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activities with limited funds, which they might not have been able to
conduct under different circumstances. Other outputs included, review of
the issue of climate and rice, a report on the Bali workshop, and reports
on all the South-east Asian studies, as well as methodological handbooks.
This work was instrumental in the production of the IPCC Guidelines, as was
the IIASA project.
3.
Evaluation of the RISO/UNEP Collaborating Centre
on Energy and the Environment (Activity 13)
for the 1994-1995 biennium
65. The relevance of RISO to the work of the atmosphere subprogramme can
be gauged from its long-term protocol, which states the following aims:
(a) To contribute to the integration of environmental criteria into
energy policy planning, especially in developing countries, and to promote
environmentally benign energy production and use in order to achieve
reductions in the adverse impacts from energy systems, especially,
greenhouse gas emissions;
(b) To enhance technical and political awareness of the environmental
impacts of energy production and use in general, and especially of the role
of the energy sector in global greenhouse gas emissions;
(c) To increase the sensitivity of the United Nations system and
other international organizations to the environmental aspects of energy
activities; and
(d) To enhance the participation of UNEP in the energy-related
aspects of international negotiations on climate change.
(e) Expected outputs from the Riso Project of relevance to the
atmosphere subprogramme of UNEP was the provision of assistance to
Governments and the international community with the economic analysis of
greenhouse gas abatement strategies and the identification of specific
investment options by applying and refining a consistent methodological
framework.
Comment
66. It was hoped that the methodologies perfected by the RISO team
would be available to national Governments and the international community.
To date a methodology is still under discussion and awaiting evaluation by
IPCC before it can be widely adopted for studying the cost to national
economies of mitigative activities. In addition, many reports were
prepared and workshops were also convened. RISO is already trying to
involve Governments and, ultimately, IPCC in providing a review process for
this activity.
4.
67.
Evaluation of the climate impacts and response strategies
network for Africa (CIRSNet/Africa), phase 1, project
on capacity-building in climate change activities
The objective of this project was to establish an institutional
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framework within African countries to ensure the effective implementation
and coordination of activities related to climate variability and change,
at the national and the regional levels. At the same time, it was hoped to
encourage countries which are parties to the Framework Convention on
Climate Change to implement the provisions in the Convention. The project
aimed to increase the capacity of the countries concerned to deal with
climate-related issues at national and regional levels, and to produce
national focal points, as well as national networks, for coordinating and
undertaking climate-related activities in Africa.
68. The activities undertaken included one regional workshop held in
Niger, for 21 African countries, which was followed by a workshop with 49
participants from centres of excellence in climate change issues, held in
Dakar, Senegal, in 1996. Outputs included the report of the Niger workshop
and the report of the Dakar meeting. The project was also able to support
a national workshop in Kenya on public awareness.
Comment
69. The idea of creating a network on climate impacts and response
strategies in Africa was creditable, but subject to the availability of
funds replaceable in other regions covered by the UNEP mandate. The
beginnings of the network were realized with the participation of 21
Governments from the Africa region. This was an important contribution to
AMCEN activities, and it obviously created enthusiasm and expectation.
ACMAD was the coordinating institution for the network. Failure to follow
up with a phase II of the project will make it difficult to sustain the
initial enthusiasm. National activities may indeed have been catalysed,
but there is no way of establishing this fact. Secondly, it had been hoped
to work on and to publish the results of a UNEP-supported study on climate
impacts in Africa. This too was not achieved, as the Organization of
African Unity (OAU) has still to publish the manuscript which was prepared
by ACMAD and paid for by UNEP.
5.
Evaluation of the project on capacity-building in the field of
climate change and variability - FP/1114-95
70. In response to paragraphs (c) and (d) of UNEP Governing Council
decision 14/24, the atmosphere subprogramme prepared a capacity-building
project in the field of climate change and variability at a cost of
$135,000. The specific purpose of this project was to assist developing
countries to deal effectively with climate variability and change issues by
providing them with financial and technical support for activities that
would contribute to building or strengthening capacity. This project was
intended to supplement two ongoing projects, as follows:
(a) Impacts of climate variability and change on socio-economic
systems and policy response options; and
(b) Capacity-building in Africa in climate change related activities:
CIRSNet/Africa, phase I.
71. Some of the funds were used to pay for participation of experts to
attend meetings in Asia and Africa, and to pay for supporting a national
climate change awareness campaign in Kenya. This represented assistance to
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25
Kenya. The bulk of the funds were set aside, however, for CIRSNet/Africa,
facilitating establishment of the network in Africa in 1995 and the holding
of a workshop for centres of excellence in climate change studies, also
under the auspices of CIRSNet/Africa. Even though the project mainly
involved participation at workshops, the subprogramme felt that the
activities contributed to UNEP efforts to implement WCIRP, as well as to
support the framework convention on climate change. As far as the
countries are concerned, they were enabled to plan and to ensure the
effective implementation of activities at national levels in dealing with
problems related to climate variability and change.
Comment
72. Although the overall aims were well meant, the actual impact was
small. CIRSNet/Africa was established in Africa, but there have been no
funds for follow-up activities in subsequent years. Secondly
capacity-building needs to involve more than sending a few delegates from
some countries to attend workshops and seminars. To the extent that those
experts who participated in one or two workshop emerged better informed, a
satisfactory result has been achieved, but in the absence of follow-up it
is impossible to ascertain whether these results were applied in practice
in the individual countries from which the workshop participants came, and
the expected output of 20 better informed trained experts in number of
developing countries in Africa and Asia was not realized. Instead, a total
of 49 African experts were enabled to participate in a CIRSNet/Africa
workshop. One of the lessons learned from the project was the need for
adequate time allocation to implement activities contained in a project.
CIRSNet/Africa was developed as a separate project with similar aims,
however, which have been realized in full, although, owing to lack of
funds, it has not been possible to follow up and move into phase 2 of the
project.
6.
Impact of climate variability and change on
social and economic systems 1989-1993
73. The purpose of this project was to build up scientific information on
the impact of climate variability and change on socio-economic systems.
The resulting material has been extremely useful to the IPCC Working Group
II for their impact assessments in 1990, 1992 and 1995. Unfortunately this
is an example of projects in the atmosphere subprogramme which have been
allowed to go for so many years (in this case from 1987 to 1993) that there
is always the risk of losing direction. The project was being implemented
by a series of institutions, including the Southern African Development
Community (SADC), NCAR, NASA, the Environmental Change Unit, the University
of Colorado, the University of Nebraska, the Esquel Brasil Group
Foundation, the African Meteorological Society and Centre for International
Projects in the former USSR.
Comment
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74. To judge from the output of the project,there is no doubt that it has
had significant global impact in assisting policy makers to cope with the
impacts of climate variability and climatic change. The atmosphere
subprogramme has used umbrella projects in the past to enable them to
produce a series of satisfactory outputs at the end of five or more years.
In this particular project, there were a large number of reports listed as
outputs. The importance of the project may be measured, however, from its
ability to fund a member of necessary activities, such as workshops on
various aspects of the climate impact issue; meetings of SAC, which advises
the Executive Director of UNEP on programme content; specialized
conferences, such as the intergovernmental conference on coordination of
WCP; expert group meetings; and specialized publications. Not only was
this an umbrella project but under it the subprogramme was enabled to pay
for the coordination of WCIRP. This was achieved through subcontracting
part of the work to WMO, in particular, work on GCOS, while another part of
the work was subcontracted to the Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
at NCAR in Boulder, Colorado. This latter group was thus enabled to
organize a workshop in Africa on early-warning systems for climate
variability and change, and to continue publishing the Climate Impacts
Newsletter.
7.
Assessment of the micro-project on the analysis of drought in Namibia
75. This is an example of the subprojects which were undertaken within the
WCIRP umbrella project in the biennium 1992-1993. It was part of a much
larger project to prepare guidelines for coping with drought, added to
three regional workshops dealing with the same topic. It set out to
analyze drought impacts and an array of potential responses in Namibia.
Three workshops (a start-up workshop, a mid-term review and a final
workshop) were held, bringing together scientists and policy makers from
the country and a report containing recommendations on drought strategies.
Finally a book entitled Coping with Aridity, Drought Impacts and
Preparedness in Namibia was published.
Comment
76. Developing countries such as Namibia need hands-on experience in the
methods of studying climate variability and climate change impacts, such as
was provided here with the help of UNEP. The workshop provided an
opportunity for capacity-building and the generation of data, as well as
policy options for coping with drought. This was a clear example of UNEP
participation in capacity-building in Namibia to enable the Government and
the people of that country to cope with the environmental impacts of
climate change and variability. Not only did the Government of Namibia
benefit from this experience, the workshop also succeeded in creating
awareness among decision and policy makers in the SADC region about climate
change and its possible effects on southern Africa. Subsequent to the
conference, UNEP made funds available to the Ministry of Agriculture in
Namibia to enable it to carry out a national project on drought impacts and
preparedness in Namibia.
8.
Evaluation of GEF projects in the atmosphere subprogramme
77. In theory, GEF should be very closely allied to UNEP if UNEP is to
fulfil its mandate of taking responsibility for promoting and providing
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advisory services for international cooperation in the field of the
environment, and providing general policy guidance for environmental
programmes within the United Nations system. In practice, GEF has had
other preoccupations, with the result that its contribution to the UNEP
atmosphere subprogramme and activities to combat climate change and its
social and economic impacts have been minimal. Assistance by GEF to
climate-related activities has been provided through the following
projects:
(a) Removal of barriers to energy conservation and energy
efficiency.;
(b) Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions associated with energy
consumption and production through increased use of commercially viable
renewable energy technologies;
(c) Reducing the long-term costs of low-greenhouse-gas-emitting
energy technologies.
78. Furthermore, GEF is the interim operating entity of the financial
mechanism of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the Facility
insists that projects to be funded by it should conform with the following
requirements:
(a) They should be country-driven and in conformity with, and
supportive of, national development priorities;
(b) They should be consistent with and supportive of internationally
agreed programmes of action for sustainable development;
(c) They should be designed to transfer technology that is
environmentally sound and adapted to suit local conditions.
(d) They should be, sustainable and designed to lead to wider
application;
(e)
They should be, cost-effective;
(f)
They should endeavour to leverage other funds; and
(g)
They should have the effect of mitigating climate change.
79. Approval for projects to be implemented by the atmosphere subprogramme
has only been granted with great reluctance and these projects include the
following:
(a) Country case studies on sources and sinks of greenhouse gases
(GF/0/03-92-01);
(b) Country case studies on climate change impacts and adaptation
assessments GF/2200-96-09), which was implemented in the first pilot phase
without too much resistance.
80. The country case studies funded by GEF have been based on the
methodology handbook under preparation by UNEP with assistance from the
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Governments of Denmark, Switzerland and the Netherlands, to be entitled
UNEP Handbook on Climate Change Impact Assessments and Adaptation
Strategies. Phase 1 was completed in 1996; phase II is now funded under a
new UNEP/GEF project (GF/2200-96-09), and is intended to improve and
finalize the Handbook before it is released for review by IPCC. Countries
which have benefited from being associated with the project include Antigua
and Barbuda, Cameroon, Estonia and Pakistan. Others expected to join
include Bangladesh, Cuba, and Lesotho. The expected final output of these
two GEF projects is a well-tested handbook on the methodology for impact
assessment which, it is hoped, will be reviewed by IPCC before it is
finally released for use by various countries throughout the world. Among
other more short-lived outputs we may note the series of workshops planned
or already held in connection with the evolving projects.
Comment
81. GEF has great potential to assist the atmosphere subprogramme in the
attainment of its goals within the Climate Agenda and, thereafter, in
addressing issues of increasing global concern and significance. GEF has
extremely cumbersome operational criteria, however. It should be
remembered that, together with the World Bank and UNDP, UNEP is the third
implementing agency in GEF. Nevertheless, other Governments have come to
the assistance of UNEP with counterpart funds. This has enabled the
atmosphere subprogramme to attain some of its goals. The Climate Agenda is
very important and it should be seen as a natural expansion area with deep
roots in the energy, industry and transportation sectors of the world
economy; accordingly, much bolder initiatives are required to ensure that
things happen. A possible criticism of the subprogramme stems from the
fact that some of the projects in this area which were rejected by GEF may
not have been well prepared, but in most cases they were country-driven,
because they received support from several Governments.
82. A new wave of GEF projects came with the recent approval of funds to
support enabling activities to assist the preparation of national
communications to the Conference of the Parties of the Framework Convention
on Climate Change. Countries which have benefited from these funds include
Cameroons, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Mauritania, Mauritius, the
United Republic of Tanzania, Turkmenistan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. A
project coordinator located in the subprogramme has been appointed to help
process these projects. They fall outside the evaluation period and will
therefore not be covered in this evaluation.
83. GEF conditions for financing climate change activities is to support
sustainable measures that minimize climate change damage by reducing the
risk, or the adverse effects of climate change. GEF will finance agreed
and eligible enabling, integration and adaptation activities in eligible
recipient countries. It is important to note that GEF rules are constantly
changing, and it is not always clear how the atmosphere subprogramme can
continue to benefit from the special role of UNEP in GEF.
84. Each of these areas of GEF-supported activity falls within the
previous work of the atmosphere subprogramme, under the WCIRP umbrella
project. Since virtually all the activities of the subprogramme are
carried out in individual or several countries, it is to be hoped that GEF
will be more amenable in future to the funding of more activities within
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the atmosphere subprogramme.
85. In summary, it is important to note that the atmosphere subprogramme
has successfully accomplished a number of its GEF-funded projects. For
example, during the pilot phase of GEF, the subprogramme was able to access
funds ($4.5 million) for the greenhouse gas inventories project that
supported country studies tied to methodology development. In addition to
this the subprogramme obtained an additional $2 million to support a series
of country studies related to climate change impact and adaptation
assessment. Through the atmosphere subprogramme, UNEP was able to leverage
GEF funds for IPCC, to support capacity-building in developing countries
and countries with economies in transition in the work of IPCC.
9.
Conclusions from project analysis
86. The analysis of the selected projects has clearly illustrated how the
atmosphere subprogramme managed to achieve its objectives as previously
planned. First, in each case, the final beneficiaries of projects are
supposed to be Governments, and this was assured by their involvement in
the actual implementation. Second, a look at project outputs indicates
that many of them had a significant impact on the policy makers to whom the
outputs were directed, and that the projects managed to assist those policy
makers to cope better with the impacts of climate variability and climate
change. The projects enabled the subprogramme to focus on assisting
Governments to deal with such issues as:
(a)
Reducing the vulnerability of food systems to climate variations
(b)
Furthering the science of climate impact studies;
(c) Training in the methodology of anticipation of impacts of
human-induced climate change; and
(d)
Identifying climate-sensitive sectors of national economies.
87. To the extent that the projects have also emphasized the methodology
of climate impact assessment, the coordination of activities at various
levels, and the dissemination of knowledge about climate change impacts,
they have succeeded in preparing Governments to meet the challenge of
climate change.
88. Several criticisms must be levelled at the manner in which projects
were conceived and the choice of partners to work on them was made. In the
first instance, there was too much reliance on a few regional and one or
two international conferences, a few workshops and roving seminars, both
regional and national, to try and achieve the aims of the subprogramme.
Second, even granted that the workshops did achieve something, the
geographical coverage was poor. Apart from a planned national climate
impact study in the Russia Federation which does not appear to have been
held, the subprogramme failed to target countries with economies in
transition with some meaningful projects. Third, apart from one or two
isolated cases, there was little evidence of work with non-governmental
organizations. Use was made, however, of well connected climate research
centres in a few selected developed countries. In other words, considering
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the large funds which were available to the subprogramme before 1995, more
could have been achieved than was the case.
D.
Quality and utility of subprogramme outputs
89. The outputs from the various subprogramme elements were not only
numerous, but they were also varied widely in terms of the project
activities and the number of regions or number of countries involved, and
the availability of adequate resources for follow-up and for dissemination
outputs through the preparation of relevant reports and publications.
90. Between 1992 and 1993 (during the first biennium) for example, there
was a large number of outputs from the main activity area - namely WCIP, or
WCIRP, as it was later renamed. The aim of this project was to help
nations adapt to climate change and variability, as well as to mitigate
human-induced climate change.
91. Apart from the series of global change conferences, each of which had
a major global impact, there were other activities concentrating on
research, such as national and regional climate variability and climate
change studies, studies of sea-level rise, and its likely impacts on
coastal settlements around the world, (in UNEP, this assignment was
undertaken by the regional seas programme), national climate-change
enabling activities, work on a climate change newsletter, which had a
circulation of some 2,500 scientists and policy makers around the globe and
active methodology development (for impact studies, as well as mitigation
studies by international, regional and national organizations, including
non-governmental organizations). The effectiveness of the subprogramme is
measured by the degree to which activities such as those outlined can help
build consensus on response strategies, research needs, and assessment
methodologies.
92. The reports and outputs of other programme elements of the atmosphere
subprogramme can also be classified in terms of the extent to which they
satisfied the requirements for overall coordination of the work of teams on
impacts and response strategies. There were reports and outputs of work
relating to sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, and on impacts and
response options, as well as of work on the cost of abatement of emissions
of greenhouse gases. The relevance and appropriateness of all these
activities can be measured against the degree to which countries become
sufficiently informed and committed to contribute to the common cause.
Specific studies for which there are several publications included the
impact of climate variation on agriculture, the international land
satellite climatology project, methodology to assist the implementation of
the Framework Convention on Climate Change (guidelines for greenhouse gas
inventories), collaborative studies of health impacts and climate change,
of climate and drought and studies of the health impacts of climate change,
in collaboration with WHO, including the guidelines for greenhouse gas
inventories, drought and extreme events, such as ENSO impacts.
93. In considering the application of programme outputs, the participation
of national Governments in various studies and work on methodology
development ensures their commitment to work together with the UNEP
subprogramme in addressing the problems of climate change and climate
change impacts. Not only do Governments participate in workshops and
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seminars, but the use of enabling funds from GEF has been deliberately
designed to enable them to benefit from hands-on experience when they carry
out their own national studies. In fact, GEF funds for enabling activities
which have gone to several countries in Africa and Asia were intended to
facilitate the implementation of effective response measures. Thus, while
through its subprogramme activities UNEP is busily engaged in developing
impacts and response methodologies, GEF complements this work by focusing
on actual mitigation measures, as well as adaptation activities to minimize
the adverse effects of climate change.
94. The outputs for 1993 included 24 reports and proceedings from various
workshops and conferences. Their subject matter varied considerably. For
example, there was a conference report on the impact of climate change and
environment in SADC countries, studies of drought impacts in Namibia,
workshop reports, a report on the WCP containing recommendations for
coordination, a report on the impact of climate change on water resources
(African rivers and watersheds), a specific report on the El Nino
phenomenon, roving seminar reports, a repot on climate change and the world
economy, regional workshop reports (Indonesia, Africa, the Pacific), and
many similar topical reports or workshop proceedings. This is only a
sample of what was done, and it clearly shows that the activities were
carefully planned and varied, although there was a preponderance of
workshop reports. The message of climate change, and its global and
regional impacts was, however, reaching the far corners of the earth.
Second although there was considerable emphasis on climate change impacts
and mitigation strategies, there were other outputs from GCOS, which was
partly sponsored by UNEP.
95. Other agencies of the United Nations have been working with the
atmosphere subprogramme in producing outputs which are directly useable by
Governments. These have included workshop proceedings on drought,
presentations at the intergovernmental conference on coordination of WCP
and reports on the El Nino phenomenon and the effectiveness of the early
warming system for ENSO teleconnections. In detail, the subprogramme works
with the various United Nations agencies, international organizations,
Governments and non-governmental organizations with the aim of achieving
maximum synergy. Thus, through the IPCC assessment process, practically
all the material which has been generated by the subprogramme and by all
the other players is assessed, and once properly reviewed by experts and
Governments, is made available to the whole world.
96. Even if their quality was perhaps affected by a preponderance of
workshop proceedings and reports, the utility of the outputs cannot be
doubted. Awareness creation, accompanied by appropriate material
activities, was very much part and parcel of the activities, as reflected
in the outputs. The same picture was repeated in the next biennium
1994-1995, and activities of this kind only began to tail off in 1996-1997
when financial resources dried up. In spite of this, the atmosphere
subprogramme has continued to work on impact assessment methodologies, by
continuing its ongoing work on a methodology handbook partly thanks to
bilateral funding from Denmark and the Netherlands. The subprogramme is in
the process of enlisting the support of IPCC in assessing and perfecting
the methodology handbook, so that it can be widely used in many countries
for climate impact and response strategies studies. It has also been
responsible for setting up the Climate Change Information Exchange
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Programme (CC:INFO) office in Geneva .
97. During the two bienniums, the subprogramme sponsored an
intergovernmental conference on coordination of the WCP (pursuant to
decision GC16/41 of the Governing Council). The conference aimed to review
coordination of WCP, and the resources required both for its future
operation and for that of its section, WCIRP, for which UNEP has been
responsible. It is surprising that this vital work on climate change for
which UNEP has the global coordination responsibility is not accorded much
appreciation by the UNEP Governing Council. There is no doubt that all
these activities and outputs had an important influence on all Governments
and, in particular for those in developing countries and countries with
economies in transition, where most of the activities were concentrated.
Second, as far as the United Nations agencies and other international
organizations are concerned, the clear the effective leadership of UNEP in
its execution of WCIRP was never in doubt.
E.
Organizational structures of the subprogramme
1.
Subprogramme elements
98. During the period under evaluation the subprogramme was subdivided
into the following elements for budgeting and management purposes:
(a)
Climate variability and climate change;
(b)
The ozone layer;
(c)
Atmospheric pollution; and
(d)
Climate change impacts assessment and response strategies.
99. In the early stages, before 1980 climate variability was the main
focus of the then climate unit, which later evolved into the atmosphere
subprogramme. Between 1972 and 1986, many countries around the world, and
in particular the Sahelian lands of western and eastern Africa, were
plagued by a series of bad droughts, and these made the focus on climate
variability very appropriate. But, between 1983 and 1985, the focus
shifted to climate change and, in particular, global warming, which was
attributed to human interference with the climate system. It was this
which led the atmosphere subprogramme to concentrate most of its activities
on climate change impacts and response strategies.
100.
The problems of the ozone layer and atmospheric pollution, though of
great importance called for less effort than that of climate change. In
the case of the ozone layer, the Vienna Convention for the Protection of
the Ozone Layer, adopted in 1985, which was followed by the Montreal
Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, adopted in 1987,
showed the way, and here the functions of UNEP were reduced to a
coordinating role. This was made possible because of the cooperation of
virtually all the major industrialized countries of the world, and by
industries generally, in responding to requests for action on their
establishments.
101.
The subprogramme element dealing with atmospheric pollution had a
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small programme of working with cities in developing countries and, more
recently, countries with economies in transition. UNEP work in this area
concentrated on methodologies, as well as capacity-building to enable the
affected countries to respond appropriately.
102.
In each case an attempt was made to design a work programme to
address climate variability and climate change, to deal with the quality of
ambient air, especially over urban areas in developing countries, and,
finally, to protect the ozone layer from substances which deplete it.
These were the management structures that were employed by the subprogramme
to enable UNEP to fulfil its mandate of encouraging the monitoring of
required action at international, regional, sub-regional and national
levels to protect the atmospheric environment.
2.
Staffing and staffing roles
103.
The subprogramme relied on a small complement of programme staff to
provide the required follow-up in each of the subprogramme elements into
which its work programme was divided. Heavy reliance was placed on
partners in the United Nations system, in international scientific
organizations and in regional, sub-regional and national action plans, to
translate the work programme into a reality which could be felt in the far
corners of the globe. This was in keeping with catalytic role of UNEP,
under which the organization was called on to set an agenda for dealing
with global problems. In accordance with the overall programme strategy of
UNEP, once the issues are appropriately identified, strong partnerships are
created and these help to ensure that results will be achieved both at the
regional and national staffing levels of the subprogramme. The reason for
this approach is partly because UNEP is not an implementing agency.
104.
The first climate unit was located in the Division of Environmental
Assessment at a time when UNEP was stressing the need for global
Environmental assessment. Then, for sometime a nominally staffed climate
unit was located in GEMS, although it was virtually independent. During
the 1980s, the Professional staff in the Unit ranged from a high point of 5
down to as far as 2-3, depending on the work-load. In addition, there
would be short-term project staff. There was increased activity in the
unit leading to the creation of IPCC in 1988, followed by the international
negotiating committee negotiations which led to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change.
105.
In 1988, a professional staff officer from the unit was seconded to
the IPCC secretariat in Geneva, as part of UNEP obligations for the
implementation of WCP. At UNEP, the atmosphere subprogramme was created in
1992, although it had existed as part of GEMS and before that as part of
the UNEP Assessment Programme. The staffing of the subprogramme was at its
strongest between 1992 and 1995. Between 1995 and 1997 there has been an
obvious deterioration in the staffing situation, which is difficult to
understand at a time when there is increased demand for work on climate
impact response strategies throughout the world, as nations begin to
respond to the provisions of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.
During the period under review, there was a progressive reduction in staff
available to the subprogramme, such that, although at present five staff
members are physically located in the unit, two of these are fully
dedicated to implementing ongoing projects, and another two are shared with
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other subprogrammes: one to the Global Environment Outlook report series
(GEO) at 70 per cent, and another to Biodiversity at 70 per cent. The
indications are that, by September 1998, there will be no funds to support
the work of the Unit and the Unit will be reduced to one skeleton pot
funded under the regular budget. This will be very unfortunate, as it will
mean that the Unit is far below the critical mass necessary to continue to
leverage external resources from GEF and other donors, as it has done in
the past.
II.
A.
IMPLEMENTATION
Evaluation of strategies and modalities used
106.
From the outset the atmosphere subprogramme has been innovative in
designing strategies for achieving results in its work, and some of these
strategies and methodologies are definitely suitable for replication.
Among the strategies used are those described below.
1.
Programme networks
107.
Programme networks have been established, designed to reach many
participating countries. Thus, within the WCIRP umbrella project the
climate impacts and response strategies network for Africa (CIRSNet/Africa)
was created in the African region to help those in the network share
information on the various impact methodologies which had previously been
developed by the atmosphere subprogramme. In this instance, the
subprogramme was able to recruit 21 countries from Africa at its first try
in 1995. It was the aim of the subprogramme to strengthen this network,
and to start a similar network in south-east Asia. As it happened, the
network idea proved very marketable, and the Economic Commission for Asia
and the Pacific (ESCAP) started one of their own without help from UNEP.
Hopes that the subprogramme might be able to ride on the back of this
latter project were not fulfilled, however, as this ESCAP project also
appears to have run out of funds. Although it was a sound and replicable
idea, the subprogramme ran out of resources and was unable to pursue it any
further.
2.
Network newsletter
108.
Another innovative idea was the use of a network newsletter within
the same umbrella project, namely WCIRP. The newsletter was so successful
that it had a circulation list of 2,500. With newsletters of this kind it
is possible to reach a large number of researchers and policy makers
throughout the world, and they can be used successfully even before a
network is installed. In this instance, the newsletter proved to be useful
for disseminating information about, stimulating debate on, and improving
awareness of climate impacts and other climate related issues. Second,
because it was relatively cheap to produce, with the help of the NCAR in
Boulder, Colorado, it clearly demonstrated its replicability in similar
situations.
3.
109.
Capacity-building
It has been suggested that practically all the major projects of the
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atmosphere subprogramme had a capacity-building element. Where if this was
the case, it made the subprogramme very effective in reaching its
clientele. Capacity-building in climate matters is important for
developing countries and countries with economies in transition. It is
true that one capacity-building project did not perform as had been
expected, mainly because of lack of funds, but this does not make the
strategy any less valid. The subprogramme's understanding of
capacity-building must, however, be subjected to a critical examination.
It should comprise more than just arranging for selected government
participants to attend workshops and seminars. For capacity-building to be
valuable, it should be more innovative, consisting of a combination of
technical sessions, - if it is a workshop, computer teach-ins, poster
sessions, and relevant fieldwork all put together. It is only then that
Governments can be sure that the scientists and policy makers who
participate in such workshops will be properly trained, and able to use the
technologies imparted on their return home.
4.
National climate action programmes
110.
One practical strategy used to considerable effect by the
subprogramme has been to target the national level, and to encourage
individual Governments through the use of enabling funds, for instance,
through public awareness campaigns, to establish their own national climate
action programmes. Where individual countries incorporate climate impact
strategies in their national development plans, the future is assured.
This is especially true of developing countries and countries with
economies in transition. This is a strategy which not only works, but is
replicable, and ensures that the foundations of technology transfer are
properly laid.
5.
International action plan
111.
At a recent meeting of the Scientific Committee of the subprogramme,
held in October 1996, a decision was taken to formulate an international
action plan for climate impacts and response strategies, with a view to
reduce vulnerability and guiding future activities of the subprogramme, as
well as to guiding national activities on impacts assessment and
mitigation. These ideas are still being pursued and elaborated and should
be useful when finally put into operation.
6.
Use of GEF funds for enabling activities
112.
Through the subprogramme, use is being made of GEF funds for
enabling activities for individual Governments in the developing countries
and countries with economies in transition. The enabling activities are
primarily intended to assist countries in the preparation of their national
communications to the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Fortunately,
the process of preparing national communications comprises many stages.
For example, country studies, initially supported through GEF funds, have
made it possible for countries to carry out national inventories of sources
and sinks of greenhouse gases. Many countries have benefited from these
funds, including China, Costa Rica, the Gambia, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria,
Poland, Senegal, Uganda, the United Republic of Tanzania, and Venezuela.
In addition, several other countries in south-east Asia, Latin America and
Eastern Europe have participated in regular workshops under this programme.
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7.
Country case-studies
113.
Another strategy used by the subprogramme has been the
endeavour to assist countries with their impact adaptation strategies,
through the preparation of a set of country case-studies to test IPCC
guidelines for assessing impacts of climate change and developing
adaptation strategies. This is an important activity, which should be
applicable both to developed and developing countries and needs
encouragement and the resources to set it in operation.
8.
Costing studies
114.
Important economic studies need to be carried out, to establish the
cost to developing countries of taking action on climate impact mitigation
activities. The UNEP subprogramme, through RISO, its associated research
laboratories in Denmark, has been working on greenhouse gas abatement
costing studies and on the methodologies for carrying out such studies. If
successful, and finally adopted by IPCC, such studies should prove to be
extremely useful.
9.
Public awareness activities
115.
Finally, the atmosphere subprogramme has been very actively involved
in public awareness activities at the national and international levels.
As part of this public awareness campaign, UNEP established the Information
Unit on Climate Change (IUCC) in Geneva which was later renamed the
Information Unit for Conventions (IUC).
III.
A.
PROBLEMS AND CONSTRAINTS ENCOUNTERED
Programme and project development and management
116.
The main problem facing programme and project development and
management is the constant chopping and changing taking place throughout
the UNEP programme. The ozone layer and atmospheric pollution elements
have remained relatively stable for a long period, but the rest of the
subprogramme has experienced many changes, with some projects being
abandoned mid-stream.
117.
A more difficult problem to deal with concerns coordination within
WCIP, for which UNEP had the responsibility for impact work. Although
there is a coordinating committee, the coordination did not work well. The
UNEP subprogramme has, throughout most of this period, apparently failed to
put its case to the UNEP Governing Council in a sufficiently strong manner
to enable the Governing Council to accord it its rightful place within the
UNEP programme.
118.
According to its mandate, the subprogramme has apparently failed to
convince the UNEP Governing Council of its uniqueness and the value of its
work in climate change, so that its functions may not be confused with that
of WMO. This is surprising, since it is the same Governing Council which
endorsed the division of labour relating to WCP, and the component within
the purview of UNEP.
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119.
The atmosphere subprogramme has always been keen to develop and
implement regional and national activities to deal with climate change and
climate variability problems. From time to time there have been project
failures because of inadequate time allocation, and inadequate preparation.
Project preparation takes considerable time, and when the staff is small,
and constantly travelling, problems often arise.
120.
In respect of funds from GEF, the subprogramme has encountered many
problems, because the GEF rules have been changing,especially after the
experimental period. A few projects have been approved, however, for
implementation by the atmosphere subprogramme, especially in respect of
enabling activities directed at several developing countries and countries
with economies in transition.
B.
Resource allocation
121.
One of the major problems affecting the work programme over the
1992-1997 period is in the area of programme finances. In the 1990-1991
biennium the atmosphere subprogramme was allocated $2.7 million from UNEP
core funds, equivalent to 4.7 per cent of all allocations. This was the
period following the creation of IPCC by UNEP and WMO, which also marked
the beginning of intensified accelerated climate change activities in the
international community. With careful planning and adequate foresight,
this large allocation of funds would have helped to establish the
subprogramme as a powerhouse for UNEP. Unfortunately, this did not happen,
and the opportunity was wasted. In comparison, the next biennium
(1992-1993) saw a rapid increase, initially by $2 million (4.7 per cent),
which was further increased by a total of $2 million to $9 million,
equivalent to 5 per cent of total UNEP allocations. The explanation for
these large increases during the biennium may be found in the fact that
this was the time of the first IPCC climate assessment, and the
intergovernmental negotiations which led to the signing of the United
Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change, during UNCED in the summer
of 1992.
122.
In the biennium 1994-1995, funding for the subprogramme began to
decline substantially, when the total allocation dropped from the high of
$9 million to $3.6 million, only 3 per cent of allocations from the
Environment Fund. In the meantime, international obligations had actually
increased, with the commencement of work on the establishment of the
Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat, and the preparations
for the second IPCC assessment report, which should have justified
additional funds to enable UNEP to fulfil its obligations. This too came
at the time when UNEP first declared the importance of, and its commitment
to, regional delivery, which would naturally entail the need for more
resources. Quoting Agenda 21 (chapter 38), the Governing Council requested
UNEP to enhance its capability at the regional level. So the subprogramme
had increased responsibility but reduced funding.
123.
The $9 million allocated to the subprogramme for the 1992-1993
biennium was intended for activities in two major areas, namely,
atmospheric pollution and climate change. Out of the total of $3.6
million, $2 million was for global activities and $1 million for regional
activities. Among the global activities, UNEP has for some time been
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supporting GCOS, working with WMO and others, and climate system monitoring
and contributing to work on the state of the ozone layer. The second area
of concentration, which accounts for the bulk of the subprogramme's budget,
is climate change impacts assessment and response strategies. Following
the entry into force of the Framework Convention on Climate Change,
activities on this front were bound to intensify and UNEP was expected to
bear its share of the burden. In point of fact, this sector of its work
accounted for 73 per cent of the total budget allocation during the
biennium. The actual work included funds for operation of the climate
unit, support to IPCC, support for IUCC, support for the secretariat of the
Framework Convention on Climate Change, assistance to WCP, as well as
support for social projects, including a study of climate change and global
agricultural potential (with FAO), preparation of guidelines for impacts
assessment, establishment of a climate impact network, support to
activities of the African Ministers Conference on the Environment (AMCEN),
a three-island sea-level rise study, and work on drought preparedness in
several countries of south-east Asia. Many of these activities have to be
carried out and UNEP is the organization best placed for that purpose,
because it was allocated the responsibility of looking after climate
impacts assessment and response strategies within the global climate
agenda.
124.
The funding picture for the subprogramme remained quite clear and
adequate until the end of the 1994-1995 biennium. The international
commitments had been undertaken, and work continued very smoothly until the
beginning of the new biennium (1996-1997), when, initially, the
subprogramme was given no budget allocation, since the financial resources
of UNEP had been drastically reduced. This was a clearly difficult
situation, as several other organizations relied on UNEP to be able to meet
their own international obligations within the global Climate Agenda.
Fortunately, a salvage operation was mounted but the funds thus mobilized
were much smaller than those previously available, and the subprogramme's
international obligations will need to be addressed with a view to finding
more lasting solutions. Some $1 million was obtained from trust funds to
supplement a mere $225, 000 from the Environment Fund, and it was also
expected that the subprogramme would qualify for some of the GEF enabling
funds, of up to $2 million. Work is continuing at the global level only
(the regional emphasis having been virtually abandoned), albeit at a very
reduced level. For example, work on climate change and variability has
been allocated $285, 000 and the coordination of international activities
under WCIRP has been restored with some $193, 262 from the Environment
Fund. Much of this money will, however, be used to cover the costs of a
statutory meeting of the WCIRP Scientific Advisory Committee which is
expected shortly. Finally, some nominal - and far from adequate - funds
were allocated to enable the subprogramme to continue some work relating to
the reviewing of actions to implement Agenda 21.
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125.
A review of the financial plight of the subprogramme reveals the
poor management practice, apparently rampant throughout UNEP, whereby work
programmes are planned without setting any priorities which would give a
subprogramme a fallback option when expected funds failed to materialize.
Granted that the drop in resources available to the whole of the UNEP
programme was catastrophic, prioritized planning in competing programmes in
the house would have given the management an easier approach, rather than
deciding to abolish some subprogrammes, only to find that international
obligations render such abolition impracticable. The prioritization of
work programmes is a necessary tool where there is uncertainty about the
level of resources likely to be available, and its adoption throughout the
UNEP programme would make programme management at all levels smoother than
at present. As a rider to this comment, it would help, at the overall UNEP
programme level, if there was an inventory of international obligations
which could be referred to beforehand, and whenever major changes are being
considered in the allocation to subprogrammes, such as has happened to the
atmosphere subprogramme in the last few months. Blame for this lack of
foresight must, however, also be squarely laid at the door of the
subprogramme management, as it should have brought this to the attention of
the UNEP management as a whole.
126.
In theory, the atmosphere subprogramme should have a window from
which it can raise funds to enable it to continue its activities. UNEP is
a partner and implementing agency for GEF projects, but it has not found it
easy to gain access to those funds. Thus, although the revised work
programme for the 1996-1997 biennium talks about developing and
implementing GEF projects, including impact and adaptation methodology
development through country studies, to date there are only two
full-fledged GEF projects managed by a programme officer in the
subprogramme, with another nine enabling fund projects from GEF which are
specifically for assistance to developing countries for the preparation of
first communications to the Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Currently, these projects are being managed by a temporary project manager,
who is located in the atmosphere subprogramme. It is of course surprising
that at present the subprogramme has no core staff, as all those on board
are either in biodiversity or some other project outside the subprogramme,
yet the new work programme presupposes that in-programme assistance can be
found to help develop the GEF projects for funding.
127.
Subject to the availability of funds, the 1996-1997 work programme
also talks of providing support for the IPCC secretariat jointly with WMO,
which will also entail support for developing country participation in the
IPCC process, in addition to many other work programmes not adequately
provided for, such as coordinating the international and national
activities that contribute to WCIRP under Thrust 3 of the Climate Agenda on
impacts of climate change and variability and associated response
strategies to reduce vulnerability, as well as dealing with Agenda 21, and
raising awareness on atmosphere-related issues in support of Article 6 of
the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Clearly a decision needs to be
made, to state clearly what the funding situation is for the atmosphere
subprogramme, weighed against its expected responsibilities, with staffing
implications for the subprogramme. As pointed out earlier, the risk that,
by September 1998, the atmosphere subprogramme could be reduced to a mere
coordination unit with one substantive staff member is highly disturbing
and needs to be addressed now by UNEP top management.
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C.
Interlinkages
128.
The atmosphere subprogramme is the one charged within UNEP to
respond to the Climate Agenda in enabling the Programme to "keep under
review the world environment situation in order to ensure that emerging
environmental problems of wide international significance receive
attention." But in-house there are several subprogrammes which need and
use climate information to fulfil their tasks. These include the
subprogrammes on freshwater resources, terrestrial ecosystems, oceans and
coastal areas, health, human settlements and welfare, industry and energy,
Earthwatch and regional cooperation. Some of the programmes are more
concerned about the Climate Agenda than others. For example, the
subprogramme on oceans and coastal areas has, among its proposed
activities, the analysis of environmental ecological, and economic effects
arising from climate change and sea-level rise; the development and
implementation of appropriate policy and management options at regional and
national levels; and the implementation of global long-term monitoring of
climate-related changes in the marine and coastal environments. It can
quickly be seen that these activities fall under that of the Climate Agenda
which is of immediate concern to the work of IPCC working groups I and II,
which are overseen by UNEP and WMO. It would be futile for OCAPAC to have
a parallel climate agenda in UNEP when there should be close interlinkages
among all the users of climate information in the organization, thus
ensuring a more satisfactory operation of the UNEP programme. The
environment is inherently interlinked. Problems of climate change, loss of
biological diversity, land degradation, the pollution of fresh and marine
waters and the depletion of stratospheric ozone are all interlinked. The
atmosphere subprogramme is normally allocated a mere 3 per cent of UNEP
funds. Yet it is the one unit capable and knowledgeable enough to provide
in-house leadership for a properly interlinked programme which does justice
to the climate agenda requirements within UNEP. Just as WCP, partly
overseen by UNEP and WMO, oversees the global climate agenda and is
responsible for the greater integration of all aspects of international
climate science activities including data collection and application,
climate system research and studies of the social and economic impacts of
climate variability and change and their effects on ecosystems, so the
atmosphere subprogramme should be encouraged and given adequate funds to
enable it to coordinate the climate agenda within UNEP.
129.
Agenda 21 rightly underlines the fact that climate change and
climate variability, air pollution and ozone layer depletion have all
created new demands for scientific, economic, and social information to
reduce the remaining uncertainties in these fields. The aim of new
programmes should be to promote a better understanding and prediction of
various properties of the atmosphere and the affected ecosystems, as well
as health impacts and their interaction with social and economic factors.
130.
In a new report under preparation by a group led by UNEP and the
World Bank, the importance of the interlinkages approach has been
summarized as follows:
"Recognizing and understanding the linkages among the environmental
problems provides policy makers an excellent opportunity to address
them at the local, national and regional level in an integrated
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manner that is much more cost effective than the traditional
sectoral approach which ignores these issues."
The same can be said of the need within UNEP, for the various sectors of
the programme to see the benefits of a more integrated approach to handling
climate issues.
131.
The energy and industry subprogramme of UNEP has been working on
certain aspects of climate change, and this has recently led to the belief
within UNEP that the climate agenda can be conveniently transferred to this
subprogramme. However, a look at the concerns of the subprogramme quite
clearly reveals, however, that, apart from the benefits it is likely to
derive from in-house interlinkages with the climate (atmosphere)
subprogramme, its pre-occupations and interests are quite different. For
example, its key interests relating to climate change impacts are as
follows:
(a)
Efficient energy technologies and energy conservation measure;
(b)
Support for the adoption of legal measures in climate change;
(c)
Climate implications of natural energy policies - i.e., the
formulation of natural energy policies with special reference to climate
change issues;
(d)
Information exchange relating to the role of energy in the
greenhouse effect.
132.
From the above it is clear that the energy subprogramme should be
regarded largely as a consumer of climate change information and not as a
proprietor of the climate agenda, as the atmosphere subprogramme is and
should be. Rather than suggest that this unit takes over the climate
agenda in UNEP it should be required to actively participate in the agenda
as part of the obvious interlinkage requirements; as well as derive
benefits for its own requirements.
133.
In other words, several of the UNEP subprogrammes stand to gain by
contributing to a strong in-house climate agenda. They should therefore be
expected to contribute ideas and resources to such a unified agenda, rather
than be left to work as they do at present, in a completely
compartmentalized way. Judging from the work of the IPCC second
assessment, there are several programme elements within the UNEP programme
which have recently woken up to the implications of climate change for
their activities. They have realized that the scenarios of future
development must take account of climate effects. Such units include apart from energy, industry and environment - office transportation,
tourism, GEMS and even the subprogramme on technical and regional
cooperation.
134.
A collaborative report under preparation by the World Bank, UNDP,
UNEP, and several other interested groups has recently underlined the fact
that, five years after Rio, some global environmental problems are getting
worse. These problems include, inter alia, climate change, loss of
biological diversity, land degradation and desertification, deforestation
and forest degradation, the degradation of fresh and marine waters, the
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depletion of stratospheric ozone and the accumulation of persistent organic
pollutants. With few exceptions, climate change will in turn affect, and
be relevant to, each of these problems. It is therefore urgent for the
UNEP as the body within the United Nations charged with overseeing
environmental matters to be alert and to realize the central role still to
be played by climate change, over the next few decades, and to be
adequately prepared to play its catalytic and leading role in addressing
these problems.
135.
IPCC emission scenarios relevant to the climate change debate
suggest that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will rise
substantially beyond a doubling of pre-industrial concentrations, barring
drastic mitigation scenarios. The projected climate changes associated
with the carbon dioxide concentrations will impact on ecosystems and lead
to sea-level rise, and even to an increase in tropical and sub-tropical
infectious diseases. It is clear that such ominous projected changes
should be countered by a strong interlinked research and action programme:
UNEP, with its global mandate, should be at the centre rather than the
periphery of such an activity. These interlinkages must be more
effectively used to present a more viable UNEP climate agenda (emphasizing
impacts and response strategies) to the UNEP Governing Council.
IV.
LESSONS LEARNED
136.
This evaluation has been based on a review of the literature made
available to the consultant, in addition to interviews with various
programme staff both within and outside the atmosphere subprogramme.
Sources outside the subprogramme were interviewed because it was felt that,
through their own activities, they could make valuable comments relevant to
the functioning of the atmosphere subprogramme. The following lessons have
been learned from of the evaluation:
(a)
That, despite the fact that climate plays a vital role in the
human environment and, consequently, in human affairs and despite the
prominence given to atmosphere by the Stockholm Conference and subsequent
world conferences, its centrality in UNEP preoccupations has been slow in
coming. The Atmosphere Unit has been forced to adjust to diminishing
resources over the evaluation period,but it has remained important to UNEP
in the performance of its global mandate;
(b)
That, following the heightened global awareness of the
importance of the atmosphere in respect of urban pollution, and the
importance of the ozone layer to human survival and, finally, the impacts
of climate variability and of climate change, UNEP management should have
been more decisive in according to the subprogramme its proper role in the
UNEP programme;
(c)
That, where environmental matters are concerned, UNEP is well
served by the atmosphere subprogramme in helping it realize its special
niche in protection of the atmospheric environment. This includes the
protection of the ozone layer, the reduction of urban pollution and actions
to ameliorate the impacts of climate variability, and climate change;
(d)
That, since its inception, the Climate Unit, and later the
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atmosphere subprogramme have to some extent failed to convince Governments,
through the UNEP Governing Council, that the role of UNEP in protecting the
atmospheric environment for present and future generations is unique,and
that it is quite different from the concerns of WMO, whose primary purpose
is the promotion of scientific knowledge about the atmospheric environment
and its importance in economic development;
(e)
That, although since 1979 UNEP has been given a clear mandate
to play a catalytic role in respect of climate impact studies, as its
special contribution to WCP, insufficient in-house efforts have been made
to let the importance of this mission take root. Constraints which have
prevented the subprogramme from realizing its goals have included the issue
of diminishing resources;
(f)
That, the work of the atmosphere subprogramme has given UNEP
high visibility as a protector of the environment, but that full advantage
of this fact has yet to be taken, something which is not possible under
conditions of diminishing resources;
(g)
That, the atmosphere subprogramme has been able, over the last
seven years, to mount a significant work programme, comprising numerous
activities and outputs which have been shared by Governments through
national activities, but that the geographical spread of this effort has
been somewhat skewed, and that not enough has been done to direct projects
to countries with economies in transition;
(h)
That, the atmosphere subprogramme has, over the years,
developed a strong team of colleagues both within and outside the United
Nations system, and has worked well with elected Governments. Its
collaborators in the United Nations system have included WMO, FAO, UNESCO
and its IOC, ICSU and a few key national institutions. Furthermore, in the
execution of its tasks, the subprogramme should have made more effort to
work with non-governmental organizations, including national universities,
and research institutes in developing countries;
(i)
That, in spite of these achievements,the atmosphere
subprogramme has been marginalized within UNEP for unexplained reasons.
This state of affairs culminated in the decision in 1995 to delete the
subprogramme from the biennial budget for 1996-1997. Furthermore, under
present circumstances, the programme will automatically cease to exist by
September 1998. In the meantime, past and new international obligations
still have to be complied with;
(j)
That, from the point of view of programme approach, of the
subprogramme has been very successful in implementing national level
country studies that are linked to methodology development; and finally,
(k)
That, while the Unit has been able to mobilize financial
resources from outside UNEP to support programme activities, the current
low staffing level has severely hampered its ability to develop projects
that would implement programme priorities and mobilize outside resources to
an even more greater extent.
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Annex 1
TERMS OF REFERENCE
1.
This evaluation comprises an assessment of the atmosphere
subprogramme, based on a review of the projects and activities according to
programme and budget documents of the 1992-1993 and 1994-1995 bienniums,
and the programme of work for the 1996-1997 biennium against 1992-1997 UNEP
medium-term plan, and the 1992-1995 system-wide medium-term environment
programme.
2.
The following specific terms of reference were applied in carrying
out the evaluation:
(a)
To determine the effectiveness of the atmosphere subprogramme
in relation to the mandate and objectives of UNEP, through a process of
reviewing the subprogramme's legislative authority and the rationale upon
which the subprogramme was created;
(b)
To assess the effectiveness of the subprogramme in promoting
sustainable development practices and strategies towards the protection of
the atmospheric environment;
(c)
To assess the role the subprogramme has played in building the
capacity of Governments to cope effectively with the environmental impacts
of climate change and variability;
(d)
To review how projects undertaken contribute to the attainment
of the subprogramme's overall objectives;
(e)
To identify the strategies and modalities employed by the
subprogramme which have significant impact on the effectiveness and
productivity of the atmosphere subprogramme and that are suitable for
replication;
(f)
To review the effectiveness of the organizational structure of
the atmosphere subprogramme through a process of investigating the staffing
and administrative arrangements and operational mechanisms, with emphasis
on its coordination process within UNEP and other United Nations bodies,
government agencies, non-governmental organizations and other international
organizations;
(g)
To study the problems and successes, as well as the issues
affecting delivery of the subprogramme, and to propose suggestions needed
to improve the functioning and productivity of the subprogramme;
(h)
To identify lessons learned from the evaluation of the
subprogramme's activities and outputs; and, finally,
(i)
To produce specific recommendations for the future improvement
and effective implementation of the subprogramme's activities.
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