REVIEW OF TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION (RoTAP) Acidification, Eutrophication, Ground Level Ozone and Heavy Metals in the UK SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS DRAFT FOR REVIEW http://www.rotap.ceh.ac.uk © Crown copyright 2009 1 About this Review Exercise 2 Summary 3 This report is an extract from a draft version of a report which is due to be published by Defra in Spring 2010. A draft version of the full report is available at http://www.rotap.ceh.ac.uk 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Defra commissioned the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) to produce a report entitled the Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP). This report has been prepared using input and expertise from various members of the relevant scientific community. The names of contributors are available on the RoTAP website http://www.rotap.ceh.ac.uk. 12 13 14 15 16 17 A Core RoTAP group was formed comprising the lead authors for each chapter in the report, with additional chapter-specific input received from members of the Associate RoTAP group. Additional input was received from a group of RoTAP Advisors, comprising representatives from the Devolved Administrations, and the Regulatory and Conservation Agencies in the UK. 18 19 20 21 22 23 The report has been produced following a series of meetings which were held in London and Edinburgh. Each meeting was dedicated to a specific chapter of the RoTAP report. Core Members and Advisors were invited to attend all meetings. Associate members were invited to attend the meetings of the chapters which covered their areas of expertise. 24 25 Aims of RoTAP 26 The review focuses on the main chemicals causing acid deposition, 27 eutrophication, ground level ozone and heavy metal pollution in the UK, 28 namely sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), 29 aerosols (particulate matter), heavy metals, nitric acid (HNO3) and ozone 30 (O3). The RoTAP report reviews the current data available to the group on 31 these pollutants and their contribution to acidification, eutrophication, 32 ground level ozone and heavy metal deposition in the UK. The report 33 covers: 34 1. 35 atmospheric pollutants. 36 2. Changes in the atmospheric processing of pollutants and their 37 significance for policy. Trends in emission, concentration and deposition Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 of the Page i main 1 3. Changes in the exceedance of critical loads and levels for all pollutants 2 and UK ecosystems for which this methodology applies 3 4. Evidence of; chemical and biological recovery from the effects of acid 4 deposition, changes in the eutrophication of UK ecosystems, timescales to 5 improve the heavy metal status of soils and changes in the effects of 6 ground level ozone on UK ecosystems. 7 5. The use of long range transport models to assess the prospects for 8 further change in concentrations, deposition and ecosystem impacts 9 6. The European and Global perspective on transboundary air pollution 10 11 Details of the RoTAP Review are available at 12 http://www.RoTAP.ceh.ac.uk 13 14 Review Questions 15 The review on the RoTAP report is focussed around the following 7 questions: 16 19 Q1) Does the RoTAP report evaluate the current situation of transboundary air pollution in the UK and predict what may happen to UK air quality (including its impacts on the environment) in the future in response to current legislation? 20 Q2) Are the data presented in the RoTAP report valid? 21 22 Q3) Are there additional data which if included in the report would change the conclusions of the RoTAP report? If so, please supply details. 23 Q4) Do you agree with the recommendations of the RoTAP report? 24 Q5)Are there important aspects of transboundary air pollution which have not been included in the RoTAP report? 17 18 25 27 Q6) Do you agree with the content of the RoTAP Summary For Policy Makers report, including its Key Messages ? 28 Q7) Do you have any additional comments ? 26 29 30 31 32 If you have any comments on this report, please send them to the RoTAP Secretary, Heath Malcolm (hmm@ceh.ac.uk) by 5pm on Monday 11th January 2010. Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page ii 1 Summary for Policy Makers 2 Purpose of the RoTAP report 3 The key purpose of the RoTAP report is to provide a scientific review of the available evidence 4 on emissions, concentrations, deposition and effects of transboundary air pollutants in the 5 UK. The report considers impacts on ecosystems but it does not cover direct impacts on 6 human health. This Summary for Policy Makers draws together all of the key policy-related 7 findings of the RoTAP report. 8 9 The RoTAP report provides a detailed overview of the current status of transboundary air 10 pollution in the UK. It reviews the current state of air pollution issues, evaluates the 11 extensive measurements of atmospheric pollutants and their effects, and provides a 12 synthesis of current understanding. 13 deposition1, eutrophication2, ground level ozone and heavy metal pollution in the UK, namely 14 emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), volatile organic 15 compounds (VOC), and heavy metals. The fate of these emissions and their effects on 16 ecosystems are a particular focus in the report, as it is the potential for effects that drives the 17 policy interest. A summary of the current status at European and Global scales is included to 18 provide a wider perspective for the assessment. The report reviews the temporal and spatial 19 trends in transboundary air pollution and effects in the UK since the introduction of control 20 measures to limit the emissions of atmospheric pollutants, with particular focus on data from 21 the last twenty years. It also identifies the main future threats to ecosystems from 22 transboundary air pollution. The relationships between emissions of pollutants, their 23 concentrations and deposition and their subsequent effects on ecosystems, including 24 ecosystem recovery are evaluated. The review focuses on the main causes of acid 25 26 This Summary for Policy Makers identifies the policy issues covered in the RoTAP report, 27 reviews the success of policies implemented to date and identifies areas where further policy 28 action is required. It reviews whether the UK is on target to meet the agreed reductions in 29 emissions of atmospheric pollutants, whether there has been a decrease in concentrations of 30 these pollutants in the environment, and a subsequent reversal of any impacts, both of which 31 represent aspects of recovery. 32 current policies on future transboundary air pollution policies and their interactions with 33 climate change. The policy makers’ summary also identifies the effects of 34 35 1 The deposition of acidic compounds from the atmosphere, causing changes to the pH of the receiving soil or water. 2 An increase in the concentration of chemical nutrients in an ecosystem causing adverse environmental effects. Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page iii 1 2 Key messages 3 Transboundary air pollution has been an issue of national and international concern over the 4 last 30 years, especially since the identification of the problems caused by acid rain in the 5 1970s. More recent transboundary air pollution problems identified include eutrophication, 6 and ground level ozone. 7 substantially by a reduction in the emissions of pollutants, and a subsequent reduction in 8 their concentrations in air, rain, freshwaters and soil, and there is now evidence that 9 ecosystems are in the process of recovery. However, other concerns including eutrophication, 10 ground level ozone and heavy metal pollution have yet to be addressed as successfully, with 11 further policy action required. 12 In addition to data on observed effects of pollutants on the environment, an indication of the 13 potential for effects to occur is provided via the critical load concept. Critical loads are defined 14 as a quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which significant 15 harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to 16 present knowledge. If the amount of deposition is greater than the critical load for that 17 habitat, an exceedance is reported. Exceeding steady-state critical loads does not necessarily 18 indicate that damage has occurred, but it indicates the potential for damage to occur. Some of these concerns such as acidification have been reduced 19 20 Acidification 21 Acidification of soils and waters can be caused by deposition of sulphur, nitrogen or 22 hydrochloric acid (or a combination of these pollutants). 23 reduced sulphur dioxide emissions by over 90% from their peak value in the 1950s, 24 resulting in reduced concentrations of sulphur and levels of acidity in the atmosphere, 25 soils and freshwater. Ecological recovery of these habitats is underway but soils and 26 freshwaters in some regions remain acidified and the legacy of previous emissions, 27 land use and climate change may limit the extent of the recovery. Further reductions 28 in the emissions of sulphur may be required to aid ecological improvement. Currently 29 58% of all habitat areas sensitive to acidification exceed the Critical Load for acidity, 30 predominately due to the deposition of nitrogen which also has the potential to acidify. 31 Typically, most of the deposited nitrogen is accumulating in soils and vegetation, and 32 relatively little is currently contributing directly to acidification, but significant leaching 33 to surface waters is occurring in higher deposition areas, and in particularly in 34 catchments with sparse soils. The Critical Load Exceedance is predicted to decrease to 35 40% of habitat areas by 2020 in the absence of further measures. 36 Emission controls have Eutrophication 37 Eutrophication from atmospheric deposition in the UK is caused by the emissions of 38 nitrogen oxides and ammonia. Emissions of nitrogen oxides have decreased by 50% 39 since 1970, with a corresponding 50% reduction in air concentrations of nitrogen 40 oxides. Emissions of ammonia are only reliable from 1990 onwards, since when they 41 have decreased by 24%, although there is large annual variability, masking any Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page iv 1 overall trend. Concentrations of ammonia have changed little over the last decade. 2 The proportion of ammonia to total nitrogen deposition has increased over the last 3 twenty years from 45 to 50%. 4 5 Despite the large reduction in emissions, total deposition of nitrogen (oxidised and 6 reduced forms) has changed little. This surprising result is due to changes in the 7 chemistry and removal of nitrogen compounds accelerating the removal from the 8 atmosphere over twenty years of monitoring. Thus a larger proportion of nitrogen 9 emissions are deposited in the UK than occurred twenty years ago. The main 10 consequence of the emission reductions has been a reduction in export. At sites in the 11 UK where nitrogen deposition exceeds the capacity of the vegetation and soil to 12 sequester inputs, nitrate is leaching into surface waters and has the potential to 13 stimulate algal growth and affect species composition. In the terrestrial environment, 14 changes in species composition have been observed close to sources of ammonia, and 15 in the national surveys (such as the Countryside Survey). Controlled experiments also 16 show reductions in species composition with nitrogen addition, especially for ammonia 17 treatments. 18 Currently, 60% of all sensitive habitat areas sensitive to eutrophication from nitrogen 19 deposition exceed the critical load for nutrient nitrogen. This figure is predicted to 20 decrease to 49% (i.e. by only 11%) by 2020. Reducing ammonia concentrations is a 21 high priority and further action is required to reduce nitrogen deposition. Remedial 22 action may also be required to allow full recovery of damaged plant communities. 23 24 Ground level ozone 25 Important progress has been made in reducing ozone precursor 3 emissions in the UK 26 and more widely throughout Europe, and these have reduced peak ground level 27 concentrations by almost 30% since the 1980s. However, emissions throughout the 28 northern hemisphere have led to background ozone concentrations increasing by 29 ~10% between 1987 and 2007. Current ozone exposures exceed critical thresholds 30 for effects on crops, forests and semi-natural vegetation over substantial areas of the 31 UK. It is therefore necessary to increase the scale at which emissions of ozone 32 precursors are controlled, with the hemispheric scale being the most appropriate. 33 34 Metals 35 Emissions of heavy metals have decreased in the UK, although there are considerable 36 uncertainties in the primary sources of metals in the UK atmosphere as the amount of 37 metals deposited from the atmosphere greatly exceeds the amount of metals reported 3 Ozone is not emitted, but is produced in the atmosphere by chemical reactions between precursors including the oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and volatile organic compounds (VOC) in the presence of sunlight. Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page v 1 to be emitted from anthropogenic sources. Specific sites and some areas of the UK 2 contain soils with large and potentially ecologically-damaging concentrations of a 3 range of metals. However, the contributions from atmospheric and local metal 4 industrial sources, eg the legacy from mining and metal processing waste are unclear. 5 Concentrations of metals in these contaminated soils change very slowly; in some 6 cases the timescale for recovery is centuries. 8 What changes have there been to trends in transboundary air pollution in the UK over the last twenty years? 9 Current Trends in Emissions 7 10 Emissions of primary pollutants contributing to transboundary air pollution have declined 11 substantially during the last 20 years, mainly in response to domestic and international 12 control measures such as the Environmental Protection Act (1990), the EC Directive on 13 Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC), (Directive 96/61/EC), the Gothenburg 14 Protocol (UN/ECE Executive Body Decision 30/11/1999), the Large Combustion Plant 15 Directive (National Emission Reduction Plan Regulations, SI2007, No 2325) and the MARPOL 16 Protocol Annex VI: Regulations for the Prevention of Air Pollution from Ships. . In 2001 the 17 National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NECD Directive 2001/81/EC) was agreed, setting 18 ceilings for the emissions of key atmospheric pollutants, namely sulphur dioxide (SO 2), oxides 19 of nitrogen (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) for European 20 Community member states including the UK to reach by 2010 (see Table i). Chemical SO2 NOx NH3 1970 1990 2007 Estimated Reduction emissions emissions emissions uncertainty Emissions (kt) (kt) (kt) (kt) 6,370 3,717 590 ±4% 91% (1970-2007) 585 84% (1990-2007) (on course to meet target) 50% (1970 -2007) 1,167 46% (1990-2007) (target unlikely to be met) 24% (1990-2007) 297 3,125 Not 2,968 383 1,490 289 ±10% ±20% in available VOC 1,925 NECD target for 2010 (on course to meet target) 2,388 940 ±10% 52% (1970-2007) 1,200 64% (1990-2007) (on course to meet target) 21 22 Table i Changes in UK Emissions of Atmospheric Pollutants Covered by the National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NECD). 23 Sulphur Dioxide 24 Sulphur dioxide is emitted to the atmosphere from combustion of fossil fuels, with the 25 combustion of coal being the dominant source across Europe. The changes in sulphur dioxide Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page vi 1 emissions have arisen following a decline in heavy industry in the UK (with a move to a 2 service-based economy), a substantial reduction in the use of coal as a fuel for electricity 3 production and an increased use of sulphur abatement technology. 4 domestic sector have also decreased due to the introduction of Smoke Control Areas, 5 increased availability and affordability of natural gas, and increased energy efficiency. 6 Nitrogen Oxides 7 Nitrogen oxides are also emitted from the combustion of fossil fuels, the dominant source in 8 the UK being road transport and the generation of electricity and heat. Although emissions 9 from both road transport and electricity generation have decreased, the overall emissions of 10 nitrogen oxides have not been reduced in recent years by as much as originally anticipated. 11 The UK is one of 17 Member States of the European Union unlikely to meet the 2010 12 Emissions Target for nitrogen oxides. One of the causes of this is that emissions from new 13 cars in the real world are now considered to be higher than the predicted values which 14 manufacturers have to provide from laboratory dynamometer studies. Emissions of nitrogen 15 dioxide (NO2) (the component of nitrogen oxides which has impacts on health) from transport 16 have not decreased in line with overall emissions of nitrogen oxides, and the UK is currently 17 projected to exceed European Union Limit Values for ambient air quality in a large number of 18 urban locations. 19 Ammonia 20 Ammonia is primarily emitted to the atmosphere from the agricultural sector, particularly 21 from manure management. 22 1990 onwards, and from this time the reduction in emissions is modest (24%). 23 revisions to agricultural projections based upon decreases in livestock numbers indicate that 24 the UK is expected to meet the NECD ammonia emissions target by 2010. 25 Volatile Organic Compounds 26 Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) are released to the atmosphere primarily from solvent 27 and industrial processes and road transport in the UK. Emissions of almost all individual VOC 28 have decreased following the introduction of three-way catalytic convertors and evaporative 29 emission controls in vehicles, and measures taken by industry to reduce emissions. UK 30 emissions of VOC are expected to meet the 2010 NECD Target Values. 31 Heavy Metals 32 UK emissions of lead, cadmium and mercury have significantly decreased since 1990, 33 achieving compliance with the 1998 UNECE Protocol on Heavy Metals, mainly due to 34 reductions in the consumption of coal, the decline of heavy industry in the UK and the 35 withdrawal of leaded petrol. Emissions from the Data on ammonia emissions in the UK are reliable only from Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page vii Recent 1 Current Trends in Concentrations and Deposition 2 Ambient concentrations of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide (the main atmospheric 3 component of nitrogen oxides) in air declined by an average of 91% and 50%, respectively 4 between 1980 and 2007. Concentrations of ammonia remain high over extensive areas of the 5 UK, and have changed little over the last decade. 6 decreases in the rainwater concentrations of acidity (85%), sulphate (SO 4) (75%), and non- 7 marine chloride, from mainly coal combustion (95%) have been reported. 8 Pollutants in the atmosphere are transported to the Earth’s surface either by the dry 9 deposition of particles and gases or by wet deposition by being removed from the 10 atmosphere by precipitation such as rain and snow. Total deposition is the sum of dry and 11 wet deposition. Dry and wet deposition of sulphur in the UK have decreased by 93% and 12 57% respectively, over the last twenty years. The total deposition of nitrogen in the UK 13 (which is fairly evenly split between the oxidised forms such as NO X and reduced forms such 14 as ammonia) has changed little over the same period, remaining close to 400kt nitrogen per 15 year, despite large reductions in the emissions of nitrogen oxides (46%) and smaller 16 reductions in the emissions of ammonia (24%). The available evidence implies that most of 17 the deposited nitrogen is accumulating in terrestrial ecosystems, and may be released at a 18 future date, although ecologically significant levels of nitrate (with respect to both 19 acidification and eutrophication) are leaching into upland waters in higher deposition regions. 20 Peak ozone concentrations in rural areas of the UK have declined by about 30% in the last 20 21 years. However, background ozone concentrations have increased by approximately 0.2ppb 22 per year (an increase of approximately 10% over twenty years), in many regions of the UK. 23 Current Trends in Exceedances of Critical Loads and Levels 24 The Critical Loads and Levels concept is an effects-based risk assessment tool used in the 25 development of pollutant abatement strategies. Critical Levels for vegetation are defined as 26 the “concentration, cumulative exposure or cumulative stomatal flux of atmospheric 27 pollutants above which direct adverse effects on sensitive vegetation may occur according to 28 present knowledge”. Critical Levels are exceeded when concentrations (or exposure or flux) 29 are above the set Critical Level. The general definition of a Critical Load is “a quantitative 30 estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which significant harmful effects on 31 specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present 32 knowledge”. 33 observed changes in the structure and function of ecosystems (e.g., empirical Critical Loads 34 of nutrient nitrogen) or using a model-based approach (e.g., steady-state mass balance 35 models or dynamic models). 36 specified “critical limit” is not violated, for example, to prevent the acid neutralising capacity 37 (ANC) in surface water falling below a specified threshold value, or a concentration of metal 38 in soil increasing above a specified critical limit value. Critical Load exceedance is the amount 39 by which pollutant deposition exceeds this Critical Load. Exceedance of steady-state Critical 40 Loads represents the potential for harmful effects from pollutant deposition to systems in 41 steady-state conditions; thus current exceedance of Critical Loads does not necessarily Over the last twenty years, large Critical Loads may be derived empirically, where the values are based on The model-based Critical Loads are calculated so that a Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page viii 1 equate with current damage. Similarly, achievement of non-exceedance of Critical Loads 2 does not necessarily mean that affected systems have recovered. 3 A Critical Load Function for acid deposition has been developed which quantifies the 4 combined potential acidification from both sulphur and nitrogen deposition. Using deposition 5 data for 1996-98, 71% of broad habitat areas exceeded the Critical Loads for acidity, and 6 using data for 2004-06 Critical Load exceedance had decreased to 58% of the area of UK 7 broad habitats. When exceedance of the Critical Load of acidity is broken down into separate 8 contributions from sulphur and nitrogen, only 16% of the broad habitat areas are exceeded 9 by sulphur deposition alone, compared to 41% for nitrogen deposition alone. This 10 demonstrates that nitrogen is now a far greater contributor to exceedance of the Critical Load 11 of acidity than sulphur. 12 Critical Loads for eutrophication by nitrogen deposition were exceeded across 62% of the 13 sensitive broad habitat area using deposition data for 1986-88, and this figure remains 14 virtually unchanged (at 61%) 20 years later using the deposition data for 2004-06. By 2020 15 the area exceeded is predicted to decline to 48%. 16 eutrophication for freshwater habitats (except softwater lakes and dune slack pools) and 17 these should be developed. 18 Earlier assessments of ozone effects on vegetation have been based on cumulative 19 exceedance over a growing season of a concentration of 40ppb (the AOT40 index), and this 20 was the basis on which critical levels of ozone were defined. There is increasing evidence 21 from across Europe that the definition of critical levels, and evaluation of ozone impacts, 22 should be based on the cumulative flux of ozone through the stomata into leaves over a 23 defined exposure period. Flux-based risk critical levels for effects on growth of sensitive 24 forest trees are exceeded throughout the UK, and the application of flux-response 25 relationships for wheat suggested that, in 2000, yield losses exceeded 10% over much of 26 southern Britain, and that total national yield loss was about 2 million tonnes. For semi- 27 natural vegetation, AOT40-based critical levels are exceeded over a significant proportion of 28 the UK. 29 Critical loads for ecosystem effects have been calculated for a range of metals, including 30 cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn) for 6 UK habitats. Over 50% 31 of areas of managed broad-leafed woodland and unmanaged woodland exceed the Critical 32 Loads for Cu, Pb and Zn. Exceedance of the Critical Limit, indicating that the current soil 33 concentration may be having an impact, was reported for zinc in 25% of all UK broad habitats 34 and for copper in 50% of broadleaved woodland. It should be noted that exceedance of the 35 critical limit is not due entirely to heavy metals deposited from the atmosphere, as metals 36 may also be present in soils as a result of geological processes or via the application of 37 wastes. There are no Critical Loads for 38 Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page ix 2 What are the future trends in Emissions of Transboundary Air Pollution ? 3 Future emission projections of key atmospheric pollutants have been compiled up to 2020. 4 These projections take into account various forecasts, including future fuel consumption (by 5 fuel type and sector), economic growth forecasts (with projections of changing activity in 6 some sectors), traffic growth, expert judgement in technological and operating efficiencies, 7 and Government policies and legislation, including air quality and climate change. The 8 assumptions upon which these forecasts are based are constantly updated as new 9 information becomes available and the projected emission values are therefore revised 10 regularly. The projections for 2020 included in the RoTAP report are based upon forecasts 11 made during 2008. Both the Gothenburg Protocol and the NECD have recently been 12 reviewed, and new Emission Ceilings for 2020 are expected. 13 Following the large reductions in sulphur emissions from the major source sectors, the 14 relative contribution from other sectors such as shipping is increasing. Annex VI of the 15 MARPOL convention set limits on the sulphur content of fuel oil for shipping with additional 16 provision of “SOx Emission Control Areas” (SECAs) to be established where the sulphur 17 content of the fuel oil is restricted further unless the ships employ emissions abatement 18 equipment. The North Sea and English Channel have been designated as SECAs, and ships 19 using these lanes have been required to use low sulphur fuel since 22nd November 2007. This 20 legislation is expected to produce an 85% reduction of emissions of sulphur dioxide from 21 shipping in the vicinity of the UK by 2020. 22 Emissions of nitrogen oxides from road vehicles are likely to decrease as older vehicles are 23 replaced with more modern ones with lower emissions, although emissions from vehicles are 24 also governed by other socioeconomic factors. 25 Emissions of ammonia are expected to decline, but only by a relatively small amount and are 26 difficult to predict accurately, as they depend on agricultural livestock numbers and fertiliser 27 use. As large pig and poultry farms come under the Integrated Pollution Prevention and 28 Control (IPPC) legislation, an increased uptake of mitigation methods is predicted. 1 29 30 Despite controls on the emissions of ozone precursor gases across Europe, emissions from 31 shipping, aircraft, vehicles and industrial sources are increasing in other parts of the Northern 32 Hemisphere, especially in rapidly developing countries such as India, China and South Korea. 33 Without concerted policy action at the hemispheric scale to control precursor emissions, the 34 background ozone concentration arriving into the UK from these larger scale emissions will 35 continue to increase, eroding the benefits of European control measures. 36 37 Future trends in emissions of heavy metals are uncertain, as we are currently unable to 38 account for most of the metals present in the air or deposited in the UK. The emissions 39 estimates therefore need to be substantially improved to include currently unaccounted 40 sources. 41 Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page x 2 Have the reductions in emissions of pollutants resulted in a similar reduction in measured concentrations and deposition ? 3 The reductions in emissions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides have led to major 4 improvements in air quality, including removal of ~90% of the sulphur and nearly half of the 5 nitrogen oxides from the UK atmosphere. The decline in sulphur in particular has greatly 6 reduced the main cause of historic acidification, and evidence of a recovery from the effects 7 of acidification is widespread. However, deposited nitrogen remains a potential source of 8 terrestrial and freshwater acidification. 9 The reductions in emissions of nitrogen compounds, and in particular nitrogen oxides have 10 reduced nitrogen dioxide concentrations but have not substantially reduced the deposition of 11 nitrogen to the UK landscape. In fact the 40% reduction in emissions of nitrogen oxides 12 between 1990 and 2006 has resulted in a reduction of only 10% in oxidized nitrogen 13 deposition. The cause of this non-linearity appears to be an increase in the oxidation of 14 nitrogen oxides to nitric acid (HNO3) and aerosol nitrate (NO3) over the UK with time, but is 15 not fully understood. The main consequence and benefit of the 46% reduction in emissions 16 of nitrogen oxides, has been a 49% reduction in exports of nitrogen oxides from the UK to 17 the wider European atmosphere. 1 18 19 Reductions in the emissions of ozone precursor gases across Europe have resulted in a 20 decrease in peak ozone concentrations in the UK over the last twenty years. However due to 21 increasing emissions of precursors from northern hemisphere sources outside Europe, 22 especially from South East Asia and international shipping, the background and mean ozone 23 concentrations in the UK have been rising. 24 benefits of the European reductions in precursor emissions have been eroded by the growing 25 hemispheric emissions of ozone precursors from outside Europe. It is therefore important 26 that future policy development occurs at a much larger preferably hemispheric scale, includes 27 international shipping and aviation and has reference to both background and peak ozone 28 concentrations. The consequence of these trends is that the 29 30 Although emissions of most heavy metals, especially lead, cadmium and mercury, have 31 decreased significantly since 1990, and atmospheric concentrations are not considered a 32 major threat to ecosystem health, there is concern over the accuracy of heavy metal 33 inventories which are only able to explain 20% of the observed concentrations and 34 depositions in the UK for many of the metals. This discrepancy is thought to be due to a 35 variety of factors. In particular, the resuspension of material into the atmosphere from 36 previously deposited sources is not included in the national emission inventory. There are 37 also uncertainties associated with the sources in the emissions inventory. It is suspected that 38 fugitive emissions are underestimated, some source strengths are thought to be more 39 variable than the available data indicate, and unaccounted sources may be significant. 40 41 Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page xi 1 2 What are the impacts of the pollutants on the environment and is there any evidence of recovery from these impacts? 4 Effects of acidity (sulphur and nitrogen concentrations and deposition) on terrestrial mosses and lichens 5 Historically the greatest impacts of air pollution in the UK were caused by large toxic 6 concentrations of sulphur dioxide, smoke and nitrogen dioxide in air. In urban areas these 7 resulted in the widespread loss of sensitive species, especially mosses and lichens. This era of 8 the mid 20th century ended in the 1970s and 1980s as controls on emissions in urban areas 3 9 10 began to take effect. 11 Acidification of UK soils and waters and its impact on biota 12 Scientific and policy interest in acid rain was at a peak between 1970 and 1990. During this 13 time widespread terrestrial effects of the deposited acidity, mainly from sulphur, (as sulphur 14 dioxide) but also from chlorine emissions (as hydrochloric acid, HCl, which is also released to 15 the atmosphere from the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal) were detected. For example, 16 the growth of crops and semi-natural vegetation was shown to be substantially reduced 17 during the 1970s and 1980s in the areas of the UK with the greatest pollution from sulphur 18 dioxide. Concomitantly the problem and spatial extent of freshwater acidification was also 19 identified and quantified. The species composition of diatoms (a type of alga) preserved in 20 sediment cores revealed that lakes in many upland areas had been acidifying since the onset 21 of the industrial revolution. Acidity linked to both sulphate and nitrate was shown to be 22 responsible for a reduction in acid neutralising capacity (ANC) of lakes and streams, resulting 23 in water of low pH and elevated levels of biologically toxic aluminium, and the consequent 24 reduction in health, abundance and loss of sensitive species from aquatic plants to freshwater 25 macroinvertebrates (e.g. mayflies) and fish including Atlantic salmon and brown trout. 26 27 There is widespread evidence of recovery from acidifying air pollutants in the UK. This 28 comprises chemical recovery, where the concentrations of acidifying pollutants in the air, soil 29 and freshwater and their acidity have declined, and biological recovery where ecosystems 30 have responded to the changes in the chemical climate. 31 32 Atmospheric concentrations of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides have declined to levels 33 which do not pose a direct toxic threat to UK terrestrial vegetation except close to major 34 roads and in urban areas. A subsequent re-appearance of acid-sensitive biota has been 35 reported, including sensitive lichen and bryophyte species, In acidified freshwaters the 36 reduction in inputs of sulphate has resulted in recent increases in ANC, water pH and 37 decreases in biologically toxic aluminium and this has begun to stimulate the return of some 38 acid-sensitive species and changes in species composition toward communities characteristic 39 of less acidic waters. 40 41 This recovery is an ongoing process and further chemical and biological improvement is 42 expected with further anticipated reductions in acid pollutant loads. However, the process is 43 slow. Some landscapes are so depleted in base minerals that full recovery to pre-acidification 44 conditions might not be achieved in the short term, while a number of physical, chemical and Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page xii 1 biological factors may limit the rate at which acid sensitive organisms are able to re- 2 establish. Furthermore, changes in temperature, nutrient nitrogen levels and land use in 3 recent decades may result in ecosystems that differ in structure from those that existed prior 4 to acidification. 5 6 Deposited nitrogen compounds also contribute to acidification and are now a major 7 contributor to the exceedances of acidity critical loads in the UK. Nitrate concentrations have 8 risen in remote sensitive waters in some regions in recent decades, and as sulphate 9 concentrations decline nitrate represents an increasing proportion of incoming acidity. The 10 future fate of the bulk of deposited nitrogen that is thought to have been accumulating is 11 soils remains unclear but potential acidification from this source remains. 12 13 Effects of eutrophication on plants and species diversity. 14 The deposition of nitrogen compounds also cause eutrophication. There is strong evidence 15 from the Countryside Survey data reported in 2001 in the NEGTAP report covering surveys 16 back to the 1970s that nitrogen deposition has significantly reduced the diversity of plant 17 species in a range of habitats of conservation value over large areas of the UK. The link 18 between nitrogen deposition and plant species composition in the UK landscape remains clear 19 in the most recent Countryside Survey (2007) but there is no countrywide evidence of further 20 declines in plant diversity over the last decade in areas of high nitrogen deposition. Studies of 21 phytoplankton growth rate in UK upland lakes demonstrate the potential role of atmospheric 22 N deposition in changing algal productivity and the balance of nutrients required for plant 23 growth. Some lakes may be undergoing changes considered a deviation from the good 24 ecological status required under the EU Water Framework Directive. 25 26 Despite the reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides, there is no UK evidence of recovery 27 from the eutrophication caused by nitrogen deposition. This is due to several contributing 28 reasons, total nitrogen deposition has not declined significantly; the deposited nitrogen is 29 accumulating in vegetation and soils; and the most damaging contributor to the effects, 30 gaseous ammonia concentrations, have not been reduced in the UK. 31 32 To address the problems of eutrophication further substantial reductions in emissions of 33 nitrogen compounds are therefore needed. The available evidence of plant effects shows that 34 nitrogen deposited as gaseous ammonia is more damaging to sensitive plant communities 35 than nitrogen deposited in rain. Reductions in emissions of ammonia are therefore the 36 37 priority target to reduce effects of eutrophication. 38 Effects of ozone on vegetation 39 Biological indicators of ground level ozone show that concentrations continue to exceed 40 thresholds for effects on sensitive species. Background concentrations of ozone in the 41 northern hemisphere have now increased to a level where exposure to ozone may cause 42 adverse effects on vegetation. These effects are most likely to occur in crops grown in the 43 southern areas of the UK during spring and summer. It has been estimated that ozone Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page xiii 1 reduces the yield of wheat grown in southern Britain by 5% to 15%, equivalent to a reduction 2 in national yield in 2000 of approximately 2 million tonnes. 3 4 Impacts of ozone on semi-natural vegetation have also been demonstrated, causing problems 5 for some areas of the UK in meeting the requirements of Biodiversity legislation. EU Directive 6 92/43/EEC on the Conservation of Natural Habitats and of Wild Fauna and Flora (Habitats 7 Directive) requires member states to maintain or restore protected natural habitats and wild 8 species at a favourable conservation status. 9 10 Ground level ozone also reduces carbon sequestration by vegetation, and thus ozone 11 contributes to global warming indirectly by reducing carbon sequestration. As ozone is a 12 greenhouse gas in its own right (i.e. by absorbing the outgoing thermal wavelengths in the 13 radiation budget of the earth), and is third in importance behind carbon dioxide and 14 methane, the effects of ozone on vegetation increase the importance of controlling ground 15 16 17 level ozone . 18 Impacts of metals on vegetation, soils and water 19 20 Emissions of heavy metals have had impacts on terrestrial and freshwater species, although 21 there is often insufficient data to quantify the contributions of metals deposited from the 22 atmosphere relative to other local pollution sources. 23 24 Chemical recovery of soils and sediments contaminated with heavy metals may take 25 centuries, especially for metals which are strongly bound to the soil and sediment. 26 Concentrations of metals such as nickel, zinc and cadmium may return to background levels 27 in some areas during the present century, but this is not the case for copper and lead. 28 Despite reductions in metal deposition, inputs of lead and mercury to remote upland lakes in 29 the UK have remained relatively constant, indicating that the erosion of contaminated soils 30 within their catchments might now be an important source. 31 33 How do assessments of the impacts of transboundary air pollution on the environment vary between policy arenas? 34 Transboundary air pollution and its impacts on the environment have been considered in 35 RoTAP largely within the policy arena directed towards directives and protocols specifically on 36 air pollution emissions (e.g. the Gothenburg protocol, the EU Large Combustion Plant 37 Directive and the National Emission Ceilings Directive). The environmental issues covered in 38 the report however are also relevant to other environmental protection policy arenas 39 including the Water Framework Directive and the EU Habitats Directive. The extent to which 40 the changes in emissions and deposition observed in the report deliver benefits in the 41 different policy arenas is an important policy question and is difficult to quantify with helpful 42 precision. For example, the EU Water Framework Directive is concerned with maintaining 43 aquatic ecosystems in, or restoring them to, good (or better) ecological health. In contrast to 32 Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page xiv 1 earlier water directives, which were based around chemical targets, the Water Framework 2 Directive places emphasis on the ecological structure and function of aquatic ecosystems with 3 biological elements at the centre of the status assessments, and hydromorphology and 4 physico-chemistry as supporting elements. Ecological quality is judged by the degree to 5 which present-day conditions deviate from those in the absence of anthropogenic influence, 6 termed ‘reference’ conditions. Sites in which the various elements correspond totally or 7 almost totally to undisturbed (reference) conditions are classed as High status. Four further 8 categories of Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad status refer to the degree of deviation from the 9 reference state. 10 Although the objectives of the different directives and protocols with respect to acid waters 11 are the same, i.e. improvement in conditions with respect to a target, the concepts and 12 procedures in assessing the extent of recovery, are essentially different. The UNECE protocols 13 involve targets that are derived using a chemical methodology and the target of an ANC4 of 14 20 µeq/l is set for nearly all sites, i.e. irrespective of the starting or reference ANC of any 15 individual site, the exception being the naturally very acidic sites mentioned above where the 16 Critical Limit has been set as 0 µeq/l. In other words the 20 ANC target can be very 17 undemanding for sites with significantly higher pre-acidification ANC values. Eliminating 18 Critical Loads exceedance at such sites satisfies the UNECE standards but nevertheless allows 19 considerable damage, that, in the phraseology of the WFD, may maintain the site below the 20 “good to moderate” boundary. In the Water Framework Directive, on the other hand, the 21 target is defined ecologically rather than chemically, and recovery is measured against the 22 yardstick of the reference state, as described above, rather than a standard national target. 23 In theory this is a more appropriate approach as it takes into account the extent of deviation 24 from the pristine or high status condition and uses the reference state as a target for 25 recovery. There are two problems, however. First, the reference state needs to be defined, 26 and second, the WFD typology places all acid waters into a single (alkalinity = < 200 µeq/l) 27 class. There are a range of approaches that can be used to address the former problem. The 28 latter is of great concern as Environmental Protection Agencies may not treat all low alkalinity 29 waters in the same way and may be tempted to adopt the same standard target for all 30 acidified waters. 31 32 Critical Loads and Levels were originally developed for use as the basis for evidence-based 33 discussion of emissions reductions at an international level through CLRTAP. Over the last 34 decade it has been realised they are also very useful tools for assessing environmental 35 impacts at a national and local scale, although they need to be adapted for specific 36 applications. This report describes how Critical Loads are used nationally and internationally 37 under CLRTAP. 38 policy areas, such as the NEC Directive, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), COST 39 729 and INI. Within the UK, Defra have used Critical Load exceedance data to inform the UK 4 In addition, the Critical Loads concept has been adopted for use in other ANC refers to the Acid Neutralising Capacity is the overall capacity of a freshwater or soil solution to buffer against acidification. Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page xv 1 Air Quality Strategy and as a Sustainable Development indicator5. The UK environment 2 agencies have used national Critical Loads and exceedance data in the review of the 3 Electricity Supply Industry Permits. 4 Although Critical Loads provide an effects-based framework they were not aimed at the 5 Habitats 6 incorporation as an assessment tool have been developed. In collaboration with JNCC “Site- 7 Relevant Critical Loads” (SRCL), based on the national data and methods, are being used to 8 help inform the Common Standards Monitoring of SSSIs and reporting of Favourable 9 Conservation Status of Annex I habitats of the Habitats Directive. Directive or Water Framework Directive; nevertheless, methods for their In addition, other 10 techniques have been developed to adapt Critical Load methods for application to 11 Conservation Sites (e.g., NATURA 2000). 12 The Habitats Directive requires Member States to take measures to maintain at, or restore to, 13 favourable conservation status Habitats and Species of Community importance. 14 States are required to report on conservation status (range, area, structure and function, 15 future prospects, pressures and threats) every six years. The Directive applies to the whole 16 range of habitat and species and not just those within designated sites. The UK 2007 report 17 on conservation status included an assessment that acid deposition and nutrient nitrogen are 18 a “current threat” and “pressure to future viability” for a substantial proportion of sensitive 19 habitats in the UK. A common approach for developing Europe-wide assessments is being 20 discussed under COST 729 and INI. 21 Reducing emissions of N (and S) deposition will help to achieve the objectives of the Habitats 22 Directive, by providing more favourable conditions to promote chemical and biological 23 conditions and ultimately reduce the areas of habitats at risk. This will not only help promote 24 recovery but prevent further decline at sensitive habitats. 25 Thus, while the direction of travel towards an improving environment is consistent in these 26 three areas, the methodology and philosophical basis underpinning each differ substantially 27 and preclude a quantitative comparison. Member 28 30 What are the International perspectives on Transboundary Air Pollution ? 31 Sources of pollutants outside the UK, but within Europe have declined during the last two 32 decades. However, the contribution of external sources to measured concentrations in the UK 33 remains significant, both from European and shipping sources of sulphur, nitrogen and 34 metals. In the case of ground-level ozone, most of the ozone over the UK is imported as the 35 hemispheric background with contributions from all countries in the northern hemisphere. 29 36 37 Changes in the emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides , and ammonia at the European 38 scale are similar to those observed in the UK, with large decreases in emissions of sulphur 5 See (http://www.defra.gov.uk/sustainable/government/progress/national/28.htm) Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page xvi 1 dioxide and nitrogen oxides, and small reductions in emissions of ammonia. The changes in 2 emissions across Europe have resulted in changes to the atmospheric budget for sulphur over 3 the UK between 1987 and 2006, with imports decreasing from 60 to 20 kt-sulphur, and 4 exports from the UK decreasing from 1498 to 273 kt-sulphur. Corresponding changes in the 5 UK oxidised nitrogen budget were imports decreasing from 60 to 40 kt-nitrogen, and exports 6 decreasing from 789 to 423 kt-nitrogen. 7 8 The transboundary transport of oxidised sulphur and nitrogen compounds was the main 9 driver for the CLRTAP convention and a substantial fraction of emitted sulphur and nitrogen is 10 exchanged between countries. The terrestrial and freshwater effects of deposited acidity 11 observed widely in northern Europe, especially in Nordic countries, are similar to those 12 observed in the UK, and were detected much earlier in the 1960s, leading to the discovery of 13 the acid rain problem. Reductions in acid deposition, especially sulphur, are leading to 14 recovery of these damaged ecosystems. Even though emissions have been reduced 15 substantially over the last 20 years, the UK still contributes to transboundary exchange. 16 Approximately half of the UK emissions of sulphur and nitrogen are deposited within the UK. 17 Ammonia is perceived to act locally as a gaseous air pollutant, however, its role in forming 18 aerosol particles permits much longer-range transport, and may contribute to the observed 19 non-linearity between nitrogen emissions and deposition in the UK. It is therefore an 20 important component for future control strategies at a European scale. 21 22 Controls of emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds across Europe have 23 reduced the concentrations of ozone precursors, with a subsequent decrease in peak ground- 24 level ozone concentrations which is an important step in the process of achieving clean air. 25 However, substantial problems due to ozone remain throughout Europe. To address the 26 continuing ground-level ozone problems, further controls on the emissions of ozone 27 precursors throughout Europe are required and to be fully effective in protecting human 28 health and ecosystems, emission reductions need to be made at hemispheric scales. 29 31 How do Transboundary Air Pollution issues interact with Climate Change? 32 Little research is available to quantify the feedbacks between acidification and climate 33 change, although in principle substantial feedbacks are possible since many of the underlying 34 processes are known to be climate sensitive. For example the atmospheric processing of the 35 pollutants is very sensitive to the supply of oxidants linked to ozone and related reactive 36 radical species found in the atmosphere, and the chemistry of these oxidants is sensitive to 37 climate. Many of the biological responses to pollutants are also very climate sensitive. For 38 example in a future, warmer climate, an increase in storminess and consequent increase in 39 sea-salt deposition could threaten further recovery in freshwaters through the recurrence of 40 strongly acidic episodes. There are therefore likely to be important feedbacks which need to 41 be explored and the policy relevance identified. Policies need to be developed in the light of 42 these feedbacks. Discussions of the potential to develop policies which address both issues 43 are a current priority, although there is no progress to report. These interactions are likely to 30 Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page xvii 1 have wide-ranging effects on transboundary air 2 atmospheric transport and transformation to effects. pollution, ranging from emissions, 3 4 There is increasing interest in the effects of nitrogen deposition on the emissions of 5 greenhouse gases and carbon sequestration by plants and soil. For example, deposited 6 nitrogen can act as a nutrient which increases plant growth, with a subsequent increase in 7 photosynthesis which absorbs carbon dioxide. The fact that the global cycles of carbon and 8 nitrogen are coupled lies at the heart of the debate. 9 10 There is no doubt that policies for climate change present important opportunities to reduce 11 the scale and effects of long range transport of air pollutants. It will be important in the 12 policy context to take full advantage of these co-benefits for climate and long range transport 13 of air pollutants in the development of control measures. 14 15 The impacts of ozone are sensitive to climate change. Ozone significantly reduces carbon 16 sequestration in soils and plants. Ozone may also interfere with a plant’s ability to respond to 17 drought conditions. 18 conditions as predicted to occur in during UK summers as a consequence of climate change. 19 However, elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide may reduce the effects of ozone, by 20 reducing ozone uptake. The role of ozone as a contributor to the direct radiative forcing of 21 global climate has grown in importance, and ozone is now the third most important 22 greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and methane. Ozone will therefore exacerbate the impacts of increased drought 23 24 If climate change causes a reduction in soil organic matter, there is a risk that heavy metals 25 which were previously bound to the organic matter will become bioavailable, increasing the 26 risk of toxicity to organisms. 27 28 Conclusion 29 Since the problems of transboundary air pollution were identified in the 1970s, UK and 30 International policy action has achieved considerable success in managing the acid deposition 31 problem. The acid deposition resulting from emissions of sulphur dioxide has been greatly 32 reduced and the acidity of soils and acidified surface waters has declined, although many of 33 these ecosystems remain in an acidified condition, and recovery is slow. 34 problems are being addressed, and while there has been a reduction in emissions and 35 concentrations of nitrogen oxides, further policy action is required to reduce nitrogen 36 emissions, and especially ammonia to prevent further damage and allow recovery of some 37 plant communities to begin. 38 gases which form ozone have successfully reduced peak ozone concentrations in the UK. 39 However, emissions throughout the Northern Hemisphere are causing increasing background 40 concentrations of ozone in the UK, with ozone exposures in some areas sufficient to damage 41 crops and semi-natural vegetation. Control of emissions of ozone precursors at the 42 hemispheric scale is therefore required. 43 concern, although due to the legacy of historical emissions that remains in soils, some areas 44 of the UK may take centuries to recover to background levels. Eutrophication Policy action to reduce European emissions of the precursor Emissions of heavy metals are not a major policy Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page xviii 1 Review of Transboundary Air Pollution (RoTAP) Consultation Draft V1.02 Page xix