Effects of pH and sugar concentration on Zygosaccharomyces rouxii growth and time for spoilage of concentrated grape juice at isothermal and non-isothermal conditions M.C. Rojo1,3, F.N. Arroyo López2, M.C. Lerena1,3, L. Mercado3, A. Torres1,4 & M. Combina1,4* 1 Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Av. Rivadavia 1917 (C1033AAJ). Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires. 2 Food Biotechnology Department. Instituto de la Grasa (CSIC). Av. Padre García Tejero 4. 41012, Seville, Spain. 3 Oenological Research Center. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Mendoza. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (EEA Mza INTA). San Martín 3853 (5507) Luján de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentine. 4 Microbiology and Inmunology Department. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físico- Químicas y Naturales. Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto. Ruta Nacional 36, Km 601. Running title: Effects of pH and sugar on Zygossacharomyces *Corresponding author: Mariana Combina, Ph.D. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Mendoza. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (EEA Mza INTA). San Martín 3853 (5507) Luján de Cuyo, Mendoza, Argentine. Tel: +54 261 4963020 ext. 295. e-mail: mcombina@mendoza.inta.gov.ar 1 1 Abstract 2 In the present survey, we assess the effects of pH (1.7 – 3.2) and sugar concentration 3 (64-68 ºBrix,) on the growth parameters of Zygosaccharomyces rouxii MC9 using 4 response surface methodology. Experiments were carried out in concentrated grape 5 juice inoculated with this spoilage yeast at isothermal conditions (23ºC) for 60 days. pH 6 was clearly the variable with the highest effect for both growth parameters (potential 7 maximum growth rate and lag phase duration). although the effects of sugar 8 concentration were also retained. In a second step, the time to produce spoilage by this 9 microorganism in concentrated grape juice was also evaluated at isothermal (23ºC) and 10 non-isothermal conditions, trying to reproduce storage and overseas shipping 11 temperature conditions respectively. Results show how pH was again the environmental 12 factor with the highest effect to delay the alteration of the product. Thereby, a pH value 13 below 2.0 was enough to increase the shelf life of the product for more than 60 days in 14 both constant and variable temperatures. The information obtained in the present work 15 could be very useful for producers and buyers to predict the growth and time for 16 spoilage of this yeast in concentrated grape juice. 17 18 Keywords: Response surface methodology; Zygosaccharomyces rouxii; concentrated 19 grape juice; pH; sugar concentration; spoilage. 2 20 1. Introduction 21 Grape juice and by-products represent an important part of the food industry in the 22 world. Argentina grape production is mainly devoted to the industry, where wine and 23 concentrated grape juices are the two mayor types of commercial products. Mendoza 24 and San Juan provinces are the main manufacturers of concentrated grape juices in the 25 country; 75% of their production is strictly wholesale to markets as United States, 26 Japan, Russia and México (Bruzone, 1998; INV, 2013). Concentrated grape juices have 27 a great importance as additive in several massive consume products. Due to their natural 28 qualities, it is employed to elaborate baby foods, pharmaceutical products, foods and 29 drinks (Bruzone, 1998). Concentrated juices are microbiologically more stable than 30 other fruit products and usually are stored at room temperature without any additional 31 treatment (ICMSF, 1980; Splittstoesser, 1987). However, these products are not free of 32 microbiological spoilage problems. The combination of high concentration of sugar and 33 low pH support the development of a reduced number of microorganism species. 34 Osmophilic yeasts represent the primary spoilage cause in high sugar food and drink 35 industries, where the genus Zygosaccharomyces is the most frequent described spoilage 36 microorganism (ICMSF, 1980; Deák and Beuchat, 1993; Worobo and Splittstoesser, 37 2005; Martorell et al., 2007). 38 The genus Zygosaccharomyces has a long history of spoilage in the food industry. 39 Three Zygosaccharomyces species, Z. bailii, Z. bisporous, and Z. rouxii, have been 40 associated with the spoilage of grape must, concentrated grape juice and wine 41 (Fugelsang and Edwards, 2007; Deák, 2008; Loureiro and Malfeito-Ferreira, 2003). 42 Spoilage by Zygosaccharomyces species can be categorized into two groups: i) visible 43 growth on the surface of the product, and ii) fermentative spoilage manifested by 3 44 alcoholic, esteric or other types of odours and/or visible evidence of gas production, 45 leading to bubbling of the product and/or expansion of flexible packaging (Legan et al., 46 1991; Smith et al., 2004). 47 In a previous study, the osmotolerant and osmophilic yeast population in concentrated 48 grape juice from Argentina was characterized, being Z. rouxii the only yeast species 49 isolated from spoiled products. Moreover, in other samples without visible evidence of 50 spoilage, Z. rouxii was also isolated at high frequencies representing 76% of the total 51 yeast population (Combina et al., 2008). The unusual physiological characteristics of Z. 52 rouxii are largely responsible for their ability to cause spoilage, including resistance to 53 weak-acid preservatives, extreme osmotolerance, ability to adapt to high glucose 54 concentrations and high temperatures, ability to vigorously ferment glucose, and growth 55 at low pH values (Emmerich and Radler, 1983; James and Stratford, 2003; Martorell et 56 al., 2007). 57 Few studies have been carried out determining the effect of limiting factors on Z. rouxii 58 growth. All of them were done in culture media and some of them assessed each 59 variable in an independent way (Kalathenos et al., 1995; Praphailong and Fleet, 1997; 60 Membré et al., 1999). On the contrary, response surface (RS) methodology is a very 61 useful tool which has been previously applied to estimate the combined effects of 62 environmental variables on yeast growth (D’Amato et al., 2006; Arroyo-López et al., 63 2006). This methodology has widely been used in predictive microbiology as a 64 secondary polynomial model to predict the microorganism response as a function of 65 environmental changes determining as the same time the interaction among them 66 (McMeekin et al., 1993). 4 67 In this work, we assess the combined effect of the two limiting factors (pH and sugar 68 concentration) on the growth parameters of a native strain of Z. rouxii (MC9) previously 69 isolated from spoiled concentrated grape juice. This task was accomplished using RS 70 methodology as secondary model. With the intention of results would be useful for 71 producers and buyers, the time for spoilage (TFS) was also determined in natural 72 substrate under storage (isothermal) and shipping (non-isothermal) temperatures into a 73 range of conditions usually found in Argentinean concentrated grape juices. 74 2. Material and methods 75 2.1. Yeast strain 76 The strain Z. rouxii MC9, previously isolated from spoiled concentrated grape juices, 77 was used in the present study. Strain was molecularly identified by sequencing of the 78 D1/D2 domain of 26S ribosomal gene and registered at the Oenological Research 79 Centre Microorganism Collection from INTA, Argentina (GenBank Accession Number 80 KF002711 ). This strain was selected from a previous study among several native Z. 81 rouxii strains because of its better adaptation to concentrated grape juice and fast growth 82 (data not shown). 83 2.2. Media and growth conditions 84 Z. rouxii MC9 was previously grown on YPD broth (40 g/l glucose, 5 g/l bacteriological 85 peptone, 5 g/l yeast extract, 20 g/l agar) during 1 day at 28ºC. Before inoculation in 86 natural substrate (concentrated grape juice), this strain was adapted to osmotic shock by 87 growing in a medium (MYGF) with an intermediate concentration of sugar (195 g/l 88 glucose, 195 g/l fructose, 20 g/l malt extract, 5 g/l yeast extract) with pH adjusted to 4.5 5 89 units by the addition of citric acid. This last medium was incubated during 3 days at 90 28ºC without shaking to reach the highest possible population (107 CFU/ml) just at the 91 end of exponential growth phase. Experiments were finally performed in concentrated 92 grape juice provided by a local company located in Mendoza region (Argentina). 93 2.3. Experimental design 94 The different runs (a total of 66) were carried out in 1 liter of concentrated grape juice 95 placed in sterile bag-in-box with Vitop® valve. Bags were placed in metal containers to 96 reproduce the conditions of storage (isothermal) and overseas shipping (non-isothermal) 97 and monitored for 60 days. The experimental design was obtained from the combination 98 of two variables (pH and sugar concentration) with 3 levels for each variable (Table 1). 99 Variables levels were established into a range of conditions usually found in 100 Argentinean concentrated grape juices. The pH values were 1.7, 2.5 and 3.2 and the 101 concentration of sugar (expressed as ºBrix, which is a unit more frequently used by 102 producers and buyers) were 64 (779 g/l reducing sugar; aw: 0.778±0.003), 66 (810 g/l; 103 aw: 0.767±0.003) and 68 º Brix (842 g/l; aw: 0.744±0.003). Two intermediate pH values 104 (1.9 and 2.1) were also evaluated in the sugar concentration condition more frequently 105 required by the market (68º Brix), making a total of 11 different treatments run by 106 triplicate. To achieve the different pH values, grape juices were passed through ion 107 exchange column to obtain the desired pH prior to concentration in order to reproduce 108 industrial conditions. The ºBrix of the concentrated grape juices were confirmed using a 109 digital hand-held refractometer (Atago PAL-2, Japan) and the pH was determined using 110 a digital pH meter (ALTRONIX, United States). Each treatment was inoculated with 1.2 111 x 102 CFU/ml of the strain Z. rouxii MC9, which represent the maximum limit 112 recommended for fungi and yeasts count by the buyers. Un-inoculated bags for each 6 113 experimental series were also introduced as negative control. The assays were 114 conducted at two different temperature systems, a constant temperature (23±0.5°C), to 115 simulate the most frequent condition of product storage (isothermal condition), and non- 116 isothermal (variable) conditions, trying to reproduce the overseas shipping temperature. 117 This last temperature profile was designed with the data recorder during wine shipping 118 to destinations in the Northern Hemisphere (Leinberger, 2006; Hartley, 2008). Internal 119 and external temperatures were monitored by iButton® temperature data logger placed 120 inside the bag and outside of the metal containers in the control treatments. The 121 recorded non-isothermal profile is shown in Figure 1, which has three different regions. 122 The first section of the graph shows the container on the dockside in Santiago (Chile) 123 harbour in summer. The middle section shows a hypothetical sea journey from Santiago 124 (Chile) to the Asian continent (eg. Russia or Japan). The final section of the graph again 125 shows the containers on the dockside in destination harbour in winter. Simulated 126 shipping time was 45 days, after that, the treatments were maintained at room 127 temperature (23ºC) until completion of the test (60 days). 128 2.4. Modeling yeast growth and time for spoilage 129 Concentrated grape juice samples at isothermal (23ºC) and non-isothermal conditions 130 were aseptically taken every 2 days to follow Z. rouxii MC9 growth. Samples were 131 decimal diluted in 30% (w/v) glucose to prevent osmotic shock and allow the recovery 132 of sublethally injured cells. Dilutions were then spread in two culture media. Selective 133 high sugar media: MY50G (aw 0.89) (Beuchat, 1993) and TGY media (Beuchat et al., 134 2001) were chosen to detect Z. rouxii present in the concentrated samples. Plates were 135 incubated during 3 to 5 days at 28 °C before counting. Growth parameters (µmax, 136 potential maximum growth rate; λ, lag phase duration) were calculated from each 7 137 treatment contemplated in the experimental design by directly fitting plate count (log10 138 CFU/mL) versus time (days) using the Baranyi and Roberts model (1994). For this 139 purpose, DMfit Software 2.1 was used. 140 In addition, bags at constant and variable temperatures were also daily examined for 141 signs of fermentative activity such as gas production, bubbling and expansion of 142 flexible packaging, and the time required for spoilage (TFS, days) recorded. This 143 alteration was correlated with a Zygosaccharomyces population level in the 144 concentrated grape juice always higher than 106 CFU/ml (data not shown). 145 In the secondary modeling step, growth parameters (µmax and λ) and TFS of Z. rouxii 146 MC9 in both temperature systems (IC, isothermal conditions; NIC, non-isothermal 147 conditions) were adjusted to a RS equation of the general form: 148 Y=ßo+ß1X1+ß11X12+ß2X2+ß22X22+ß12X1X2+. (1) 149 where Y is the parameter modelled (µmax, λ, TFS-IC or TFS-NIC), ßo is the 150 mean/intercept term, ßi are the coefficients to be estimated during the RS fitting (ß1 is 151 the coefficient for the linear effect of X1, ß11 for the quadratic effect of X1, ß12 for the 152 interaction between variables X1 and X2, and so on), is the term for error and X1 and 153 X2 are the environmental variables under study (pH and sugar concentration (ºBrix), 154 respectively). For the main effects, regression coefficients can be interpreted as the 155 increase or decrease (depending of the positive or negative coefficient sign) in the 156 response when the factor changes one unit. Analysis of the RS was made using the 157 Experimental Design module of the Statistica 7.0 software package, using the pure 158 error, derived from repetitions of experiments, as option in the corresponding 8 159 ANOVAs. Model performance was also checked by the lack of fit test and the 160 determination coefficient R2 (percentage of variability in the response that can be 161 explained by the model). 162 3. Results 163 The combined effect of pH and sugar concentration on the growth parameters of the 164 spoilage yeast Z. rouxii MC9 was evaluated in concentrated grape juice at isothermal 165 temperature. Moreover, the TFS of concentrated grape juice inoculated with this 166 microorganism was modeled at isothermal and non-isothermal temperatures, obtaining 167 representative and valuable data for industry of the shelf life of the product. 168 3.1. Modeling yeast growth at isothermal conditions 169 Experiments were carried out under storage temperature at 23ºC (isothermal), which 170 allowed to built the growth curves and calculate the growth parameters for the different 171 conditions assayed. Table 1 shows the µmax and λ values obtained for the different 172 conditions included in the experimental design. As can be easily deduce from Table 1, λ 173 and µmax at 23 ºC changed as a function of the pH and sugar concentration modified. 174 Thereby, µmax ranged from 0.000 (experiments with pH 1.7) to 0.530 (log10 CFU/mL 175 days-1) (pH 2.5 and 64º Brix), while λ ranged from 0.000 (experiments with the highest 176 pH at 3.2) to >60 days (experiments with the lowest pH value 1.7). 177 Table 2 shows the results obtained from the ANOVA analysis of regression for the 178 growth parameters µmax and λ of Z. rouxii MC9 as a function of environmental factors. 179 The variance in the response that was explained by both models was high: 90.2% for 180 µmax and 92.8% for λ. In this way, both models can be considered appropriated to 9 181 describe the effects of environmental variables (pH and sugar concentration) on yeast 182 growth. 183 The RS equations that predict the response of both growth parameters as a function of 184 environmental variables can be easily deduced from Table 2, by replacing the 185 appropriate coefficients in the general equation 1. These polynomial equations in 186 physical terms can be used by the industry to estimate the behaviour of Z. rouxii as a 187 function of diverse combinations of pH and sugar concentration within the studied 188 experimental range (interpolation region), which was established into a range of values 189 with application for producers and buyers. Figures 2a and 3a show the graphical 190 representation of these equations for µmax and λ, respectively. Both RSs show a clear 191 curvature effect along the pH axis. When the pH decreased, the µmax value decreased 192 (positive correlation) while λ increased (negative correlation), which is indicative of a 193 clear inhibitory effect of this factor producing a delay of the yeast growth. Figures 2b 194 and 3b show the Pareto chart for the standardized effect of environmental factors for 195 µmax and λ, respectively. Except the quadratic effect of ºBrix for µmax, all regression 196 coefficients were retained at a p-value <0.05. As can be clearly deduced, the highest 197 effects for both growth parameters were observed for pH (linear and quadratic effect in 198 this order), followed by the interaction ºBrix*pH and the linear effect of ºBrix (in the 199 case of µmax) and the linear effect of ºBrix, interaction ºBrix*pH and the quadratic effect 200 of ºBrix (in the case of λ). Probably, the lower effect of sugar concentration compared to 201 pH was due to the good adaptation of this yeast to high osmotic pressures. 202 3.2. Modeling time for spoilage at isothermal and non-isothermal conditions 10 203 TFS of Z. rouxii MC9 in concentrated grape juice was modeled at both isothermal (IC, 204 23ºC) and non-isothermal (NIC, variables) conditions. Table 3 shows the TFS values 205 obtained for the different conditions assayed in the experimental design. As can be 206 easily deduce from this table, TFS changed as a function of the pH and sugar 207 concentration evaluated. Thereby, TFS-IC (23ºC) ranged from 13.66 (experiments with 208 pH 3.2 and 64ºBrix) to >60 days (experiments with pH 1.7), while TFS-NIC (variables 209 temperatures) ranged from 12.66 (pH 3.2 and 64ºBrix) to >60 days (again runs with the 210 lowest pH value). In general, the treatments performed at non-isothermal conditions 211 showed a slight lower microbial stability than those made at isothermal conditions (see 212 Table 3). In the most growth favourable pH value (3.2), the increase of sugar 213 concentration from 64 to 68 ºBrix doubled microbial stability of the product for both 214 temperature systems. 215 Table 4 shows the results obtained from the ANOVA analysis of regression for the 216 TFS-IC and TFS-NIC of Z. rouxii MC9 as a function of environmental factors. The 217 variance in the response that was explained by the models was the highest, with 96.7 218 and 97.6% for TFS-IC and TFS-NIC, respectively. All the terms of regression were 219 retained in the mathematical equations, with very similar values for both temperature 220 systems. In this way, from Table 4 is possible to deduce the RS equations that predict 221 the TFS of the concentrated grape juice as a function of pH and sugar concentration at 222 constant and overseas shipping temperatures. By replacing the appropriate terms in the 223 general equation 1, the respective RS equations for TFS are as follow: 224 TFS-IC (days) = 2849.592 – 79.148 (ºBrix) + 0.596 (ºBrix)2 – 232.069 pH + 20.771 225 (pH)2 + 1.537 (ºBrix) * (pH) (2) 11 226 TFS-NIC (days) = 2771.561 – 75.864 (ºBrix) + 0.573 (ºBrix)2 – 228.12 pH + 27.544 227 (pH)2 + 0.956 (ºBrix) * (pH) 228 Both equations (very similar between them) allow estimation of the time (days) that Z. 229 rouxii needs to produce visible spoilage in concentrated grape juice at isothermal and 230 non-isothermal conditions. 231 The graphical representation of combined effect of the limiting growth factors 232 extending the microbial stability of the product at isothermal and non-isothermal 233 conditions is shown in Figures 4a and 5a, respectively. Both RSs had a very similar 234 morphology. The highest effects were noticed for the linear and quadratic effects of pH 235 (see Figures 4b and 5b). Thereby, a gradual decrease of pH was directly correlated with 236 the increase in the microbial stability of the product, showing a greater difference in the 237 highest concentrations of sugar evaluated. At pH values below 2.5, small variations in 238 pH units represented significant increase in product shelf life (see Figures 4a and 5a). 239 Concentrated grape juice with pH adjusted below 2.0 allowed to increase the shelf life 240 of the product for more than 60 days. 241 4. Discussion 242 It has been previously reported that the spoilage of various high-sugar products, such as 243 honey, maple syrup, dried fruits, concentrated fruit juices, raw sugar cane, jams and 244 jellies, was caused mainly by the activity of osmophilic yeasts (Deák and Beuchat, 245 1993; Tokouka, 1993). Yeasts have been reported to be significant spoilage organisms, 246 especially in foods with low pH and high sugar and salt concentrations and in products 247 containing sorbate and benzoate as preservatives, as well as in the presence of alcohol 248 where most bacterial species are inhibited (Evans et al., 2004; Praphailong and Fleet, (3) 12 249 1997). Many environmental factors affect the yeast growth, but the response to any 250 particular condition varies within the species (Praphailong and Fleet, 1997) 251 In order to design adequate strategies to prevent spoilage, it is advantageous to know the 252 identity of the spoilage organisms present in the products and to get an insight into the 253 source of contamination (Loureiro, 2000). In a previous study, Z. rouxii has been 254 described as the main microbiological agent that causes spoilage in concentrated grape 255 juice from Argentina (Combina et al., 2008). 256 Many yeast species can tolerate a wide range of pH, from pH 1.5 to 10.0. In fact, most 257 yeasts prefer a slightly acidified medium, between 3.5 and 6.0, which is the pH found in 258 most fruit juices, beverages and soft drinks. aw of foods is also a very important factor 259 limiting yeast growth. While most yeasts will easily grow in 20% (w/v) glucose, only a 260 limited number of yeast species are able to grow at low aw caused by the presence of 261 high concentrations of sugar (60% w/v) (Tilbury, 1980ab). Moreover, Z. rouxii is able 262 to grow at a wide range of pH values, such as pH 1.8 to 8.0 in the presence of high 263 concentrations of glucose (Tokuoka, 1993) or pH 1.5 to 10.5 in 12% glucose medium 264 (Restaino et al., 1983). In a well-documented review of spoilage yeast, Fleet (1992) 265 mentioned that a high sugar concentration may either increase or decrease the low-pH 266 tolerance of yeast and emphasized that further study of these influences would be 267 needed to clarify the discrepant to observations that have been described. In this paper, 268 we study the combined effects of pH and high sugar concentrations on the Z. rouxii 269 growth parameters and TFS evaluated in natural substrate under two temperature 270 conditions to mimic product storage and shipping overseas. 13 271 Membré et al. (1999) described the combined effects of pH and high sugar 272 concentration on Z. rouxii growth rate in laboratory culture media. Our results shown a 273 partial agreement with these authors, who found that increasing the sugar concentration 274 from 300 (aw: 0.957) to 800 g/L (aw: 0.843) resulted in a reduction of the specific 275 growth rate, and the growth rate at high concentrations, such as 875 (aw: 0.810) and 950 276 (aw: 0.788) g/L, was very low. A pH of 2.5 resulted in a 30% reduction in the growth 277 rate, and no growth occurred at pH 2.0 at any sugar concentration assayed. In this work, 278 a pH of 1.9 allowed a slow growth of Z. rouxii in concentrated grape juice at 23ºC, 279 while no growth was observed after 60 days at pH 1.7. The minimum pH value which 280 allows the growth of Z. rouxii will be dependent on the strain, the culture medium 281 employed and the compound used to acidified the medium. For instance, Martorell et al. 282 (2007) found that pH 2.2 was the minimal pH for growth of two Z. rouxii strains in a 283 culture medium modified by adding HCl; and Restaino et al. (1983) showed that the 284 growth of Z. rouxii was inhibited at a pH as low as 1.5 evaluated under similar 285 conditions. However, when the pH value was adjusted by citric acid or other 286 inorganic/organic buffers, the minimal pH value to support Z. rouxii growth was 2.0 287 (Praphailong and Fleet ,1997; Membré et al., 1999). In this survey, the decrease in pH 288 was obtained by passing the grape juice through ion exchange columns. This fact 289 highlights the importance of evaluating the growth of spoilage yeast in natural 290 substrates using acidification methods normally employed by the industry. 291 Praphailong and Fleet (1997) concluded that 700 g/L of glucose was the maxima sugar 292 concentration in which Z. rouxii proliferated. This value is not consistent with results 293 obtained in the present study, since increasing of sugar concentration in concentrated 294 grape juice to levels as high as 842 g/L (68 ºBrix) did not greatly affected Z. rouxii 14 295 growth. Our results are in agreement with others authors, who have reported the growth 296 of Z. rouxii at low aw levels, such as 0.650 (Legan and Voyset, 1991; Tokuoka, 1993). 297 Moreover, Martorell et al. (2007) have reported that two Z. rouxii strains isolated from 298 spoiled syrup were able to grow in medium containing 900 g/L of glucose. 299 We have shown using RS methodology that the main limiting factor that affected Z. 300 rouxii growth was the pH, mainly when its value was below 2.1. In a recent work, 301 Vermeulen et al. (2012) studied the influence of the environmental stress factors on the 302 growth/no growth boundary of Z. rouxii. The authors found that a pH decrease from 7.0 303 to 3.5 had almost no effect on the time to detection of the different Z. rouxii strains. 304 Only pH values below 2.5 had a significant effect on the time to detection with an 305 increase from approximately 4-40 days. However, this pH was outside the relevant 306 range for the target product (chocolate filling) and it was not included in the model 307 design. Furthermore, even the most stringent conditions of pH (5.0) and aw (0.76) 308 evaluated, was not sufficient to prevent Z. rouxii growth (Vermeulen et al., 2012). 309 These results are in line with the obtained in our work, where increasing sugar 310 concentration was not enough to inhibit the growth of this spoilage specie in 311 concentrated grape juice. 312 The decrease in the pH values in concentrated grape juice leads to an increase in the 313 time required for spoilage. An extension of the self life for over 30 days represents a 314 huge marketing advantage, since at that time the product has arrived to destination. TFS 315 was above 60 days when pH was below 2.1 units, independently of the sugar 316 concentration and temperature condition. Time to show microbial spoilage of 317 concentrated grape juice was slight lower when a non-isothermal profile was applied. 318 This may be due to the extreme and oscillating temperatures during the first week of 15 319 this assay which produced water evaporation and subsequent condensation on the 320 substrate surface, increasing aw and promoting the onset of spoilage. It is important to 321 note, that the concentrated grape juice were inoculated with 102 CFU/mL, which 322 represent the maximum limit recommended for fungi and yeasts count by the buyers. 323 This fact places us in the worst scenario, because the concentrated grape juice contain 324 the maximum yeast count tolerated and they are all osmophilic yeasts. Therefore, the 325 data showed represents the minimum microbial stability period for this substrate. 326 5. Conclusions 327 According to results obtained from the mathematical models, it is advisable to obtain 328 pH values below 1.7 to achieve total inhibition of Z. rouxii MC9 in concentrated grape 329 juices. However, this pH value could be difficult to achieve under industrial conditions. 330 Thereby, reducing the pH up to values of 2.0 may be enough to produce a significant 331 extension of the shelf life of the product at 68ºBrix for both storage and shipping 332 overseas temperatures. 333 Acknowledgements 334 This research was supported by the Technological Project MZASJ51007: Support for 335 Regional Viticulture Development - INTA. The authors wish to thank to concentrating 336 grape juice industry for providing all the samples used in the present study. M.C. Rojo 337 is a Doctoral Fellowship of CONICET, whereas F.N. 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Screening of 431 different stress factors and development of growth/no growth models for 432 Zygosaccharomyces rouxii in modified Sabouraud medium, mimicking intermediate 433 moisture foods (IMF). International Journal of Food Microbiology, 32, 332-341. 434 Worobo, R.W, & Splittstoesser, D.F. (2005). Microbiology of fruit products. In: D.M. 435 Barret, L. Somogyi & H. Ramaswamy (eds). Processing fruit. (2nd ed.) (pp: 161- 436 284) Boca Raton: CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group. 437 20 438 Figure Legends 439 Figure 1. Inside and outside temperature profiles (non-isothermal conditions) recorded 440 during the experiment to reproduce overseas shipping of concentrated grape juice from 441 south Hemisphere (summer time) to north Hemisphere (winter time). 442 Figure 2. Response surface graph (a) and Pareto chart standardized estimate effect of 443 the regression coefficients (b) for potential maximum growth rate (µmax, log10 cfu/mL 444 days-1) of Zygosaccharomyces rouxii MC9 as a function of pH and sugar concentration 445 (ºBrix) at isothermal conditions (23ºC) in concentrated grape juice. 446 Figure 3. Response surface graph (a) and Pareto chart standardized estimate effect of 447 the regression coefficients (b) for lag phase duration (λ, days) of Zygosaccharomyces 448 rouxii MC9 as a function of pH and sugar concentration (ºBrix) at isothermal conditions 449 (23ºC) in Argentinean concentrated grape juice. 450 Figure 4. Response surface graph (a) and Pareto chart standardized estimate effect of 451 the regression coefficients (b) for time for spoilage (TFS, days) produced by 452 Zygosaccharomyces rouxii MC9 as a function of pH and sugar concentration (ºBrix) at 453 isothermal conditions (IC, 23ºC) in concentrated grape juice. 454 Figure 5. Response surface graph (a) and Pareto chart standardized estimate effect of 455 the regression coefficients (b) for time for spoilage (TFS, days) produced by 456 Zygosaccharomyces rouxii MC9 as a function of pH and sugar concentration (ºBrix) at 457 non-isothermal conditions (NIC, variable temperatures) in concentrated grape juice. 21