Review of literature quantifying ecological responses to low flows R. Rolls1, N. Marsh2 and F. Sheldon1 1. Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University 2. Yorb Pty Ltd Low flows report series – June 2012 Low flows report series This paper is part of a series of works commissioned by the National Water Commission on key water issues. This work was undertaken by the Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University and Yorb Pty Ltd on behalf of the National Water Commission. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series iii © Commonwealth of Australia 2012 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission. Requests and enquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Communications Director, National Water Commission, 95 Northbourne Avenue, Canberra ACT 2600 or email bookshop@nwc.gov.au. Online/print: ISBN: 978-1-921853-82-1 Published by the National Water Commission 95 Northbourne Avenue Canberra ACT 2600 Tel: 02 6102 6000 Email: enquiries@nwc.gov.au Date of publication: June 2012 An appropriate citation for this report is: Rolls R, Marsh N and Sheldon F 2012, Review of literature quantifying ecological responses to low flows, National Water Commission, Canberra. Disclaimer This paper is presented by the National Water Commission and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the Commission. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series iv Contents Contents ................................................................................................................................................ v Executive summary ............................................................................................................................. vii Report context ...................................................................................................................................... ix 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Introductory concepts ..................................................................................................... 1 2. Quantifying the effect of low flow on stream ecology ................................................................ 6 2.1. Implications of multiple environmental stressors associated with low flows ................ 12 2.2. Quantifying recovery from low flow .............................................................................. 12 3. Key principles and conceptual models of low-flow processes ................................................. 15 3.1. Low-low principles ........................................................................................................ 15 3.2. Temporal considerations of low-flow impact and recovery .......................................... 20 4. Informing case study analyses ................................................................................................ 26 4.1. Datasets available ........................................................................................................ 26 4.2. Preferred method – traits approach.............................................................................. 28 5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 31 Shortened forms ................................................................................................................................... 0 Glossary ............................................................................................................................................... 1 References ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Tables Table 1: Summary of selected literature to elucidate key ecological responses to different low-flow scenarios (a more detailed account of ecological responses to low flow and drought is given by Lake (2011) .................................................................................................... 8 Table 2: Summary of examples of ecological recovery trajectories following low-flow conditions ..................................................................................................................................... 14 Table 3: Summary of known biological traits associated with high and low resistance and resilience to low flows. Sources: Bonada et al. 2007; Díaz et al. 2008; Haxton & Finlay 2008; Rose et al. 2008; Finn et al. 2009; Brooks et al. 2011; Walters 2011. .................... 29 Figures Figure S1: Context of reports produced for the National Water Commission's Low Flow Ecological Response and Recovery Project. The circles represent the location of individual case studies and the size of each circle represents the spatial extent of each case study. ........................................................................................................................... ix Figure 1: Assessing impact and recovery is highly dependent on the sensitivity of the taxa and their response to declining aquatic habitat and water quality: (a) represents a succession of processes after the onset of low flow in a perennial stream, whereas (b) represents the same processes in a naturally intermittent stream. ......................................... 4 Figure 2: Conceptual representation of temporal scale of hydrology from individual flow events, or pulses, to longer flow regimes (modified from Walker et al. 1995) .............................. 5 Figure 3: Conceptual model of fish response to a cease-to-flow event ............................................. 11 Figure 4: Four principles outline the broad mechanistic links between low flow and processes and patterns in riverine ecosystems. These links do not operate in isolation, and many ecological pathways that are affected by low flows are likely to occur simultaneously, potentially resulting in similar or synergistic and complex consequences ............................................................................................................................. 16 Figure 5: Expected response based on habitat changes. Dashed lines along the temporal axis indicate timelines for inducing ecological response to low flows vary significantly (based on regime, antecedent conditions and other environmental stressor effects). ............... 17 NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series v Acknowledgements We thank the National Water Commission for funding and support and the helpful comments of reviewers. We would also like to thank the project advisory group, jurisdictional agency staff and review workshop participants for their input and useful comments throughout the project. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series vi Executive summary This report summarises literature quantifying the ecological response to, and recovery from, low-flow events in streams and rivers. The review focuses on the low-flow responses of macroinvertebrates and fish, and has particularly sought to identify potential ecological indicators and thresholds useful for low-flow planning and management. It provides a context for related National Water Commission low flows reports, and especially informs a series of case studies attempting to develop quantitative relationships between low flow and ecosystem responses (Marsh et al. 2012), and a monitoring approach for low flows (Sheldon et al. 2012). Research interest in the effects of natural low-flow events, drought and water diversion or extraction, on aquatic ecology is predominantly driven by a need to understand the ecological consequences of reduced water due to human demands and/or to support water-dependent biodiversity in the context of climate variation. Most literature examines patterns in stream ecosystem structure and function over cycles of low-flow events or by comparing the ecology of streams with contrasting flow regimes. Such studies indicate that low flows initially increase density and diversity of biota due to habitat contraction, followed by a progressive decline in the density or presence of biota unable to persist in the progressively harsher conditions. Over time, this results in reduced richness and biodiversity of stream biota as species become locally extinct. Recently, manipulative experimental water extraction studies have provided further information of the effects of low flows. In particular, such experimental studies increase confidence in identifying the duration and frequency of particular low-flow events required before changes in ecosystem structure and function are detected. It is difficult or impossible to use the available literature to identify thresholds of low-flow stress (e.g. a duration of time below a particular flow magnitude before an impact) that can be generalised across geographic regions such as Australia. This is due to differences in climate, land use and both antecedent flow regime and water quality conditions. Research indicates that the ecological effect of reduced flow depends on the interaction with the antecedent flow history and the antecedent water quality conditions that are driven by climate, flow regime and the surrounding landscape. These details, particularly details of antecedent flow conditions, are infrequently included in the assessment of ecological effects of low flows, which further hinders the ability to produce quantitative relationships with enough certainty to allow extrapolation to rivers with little or no information on their ecology. Based on Australian and international literature, we present four key principles linking low-flow hydrology and ecological responses in surface water ecosystems. These principles focus on the mechanistic drivers of change in ecosystem structure and function due to reduced stream discharge. Specifically, low flows control the extent and arrangement of physical aquatic habitat, therefore influencing ecological patterns and processes (e.g. the composition and diversity of biota, along with trophic structure and carrying capacity) (principle 1). Secondly, low flows influence physical and biological conditions in remaining aquatic habitat, which in turn drive changes in ecological patterns and processes (e.g. the distribution and recruitment of biota) (principle 2). Thirdly, low flows affect the sources and exchange of energy in riverine ecosystems, affecting ecosystem production and biotic composition (principle 3). Finally, low flow restricts dispersal, increasing the importance of refugia and affecting multi-scale ecological patterns and processes (principle 4). These principles (along with accompanying temporal considerations) can be used to inform water planning and management, as well as guide ongoing research interest into the ecological consequences of low flows – facilitating the development of a cause/effect framework. We note that addressing low-flow impact is potentially more straightforward than assessing recovery from low flows, which needs to include concepts of resistance and resilience. This literature review shows that biological traits are increasingly being used to improve knowledge of the ecological consequences of low flow, by way of predicting specific taxa, or groups of taxa, that are either vulnerable or resistant to changes in low-flow hydrology. For example, biota that are able to rapidly disperse appear more resistant to reduced flow when compared with poor dispersers because NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series vii they are able to avoid predators and declining habitat quality and move to more suitable habitats. However, poor knowledge of the basic ecology and biology of many groups of biota in large regions of Australia, combined with high variation in traits among taxa that are taxonomically similar, is likely to hinder the broadscale assessment of ecological responses to low flows. A national traits database may help in this regard. This report concludes by describing an approach and data available for analysis via case study analyses. For a more detailed understanding of low-flow impacts and recovery, both case studies and broader meta-analysis are necessary since increasing pressure for water, climate variability and other stressors simultaneously affect stream ecosystems. A thorough literature review focusing on drought can be found in Lake (2011). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series viii Report context This report is part of a larger series of reports produced for the National Water Commission’s Low Flow Ecological Response and Recovery Project (Figure S1). It reviews selected Australian and international literature where attempts have been made to quantify the ecological effects of low flows. Guidance on ecological response and hydrological modelling for low -flow water planning Low-flow hydrological classification of Australia Review of literature quantifying ecological responses to low flows Early warning, compliance and diagnostic monitoring of ecological responses to low flows Synthesis of case studies quantifying ecological responses to low flows Figure S1: Context of reports produced for the Low Flow Ecological Response and Recovery Project. Each circle represents the location of individual case studies and the size of each circle represents the spatial extent of each case study. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series ix 1. Introduction This report reviews scientific literature quantifying ecological responses to low flows (both natural and experimental studies) to determine whether detectable ecological effects and thresholds for low-flow events are likely to exist, and the types of ecological indicators used to date. It identifies the response and recovery of ecosystems following low-flow events and the potential confounding factors influencing responses to low flows, focusing on macroinvertebrates and fish. The review presents conceptual models of response to low-flow conditions in the form of four principles and provides an analysis approach for 11 case studies investigating the relationships between patterns in biological data and a range of low-flow characteristics (Marsh et al. 2012). It also provides a basis for the monitoring guidelines report (Sheldon et al. 2011). The review can be used to inform water planning and management and an associated report, “Guidance on ecological responses and hydrological modelling for low-flow water planning” (Marsh et al. 2012b), places the key points in this report into a water planning framework. The review is organised into three parts. The first presents introductory concepts for considering the effects of low flow on aquatic biota and ecological processes, such as the difference between impact and recovery, and resilience. The second part presents the bulk of the literature proper; it identifies general response principles and then discusses temporal complexities. The last section of the report translates the review of literature into an analysis approach, which has been used to inform the 11 case studies (see Marsh et al. 2012). 1.1. Introductory concepts 1.1.1. Why are low flows important? The natural flow regime is the fundamental driver of the structural and functional attributes of surface water ecosystems worldwide (Poff et al. 1997). Specific flow events, such as floods, droughts and flow pulses, are key hydrological disturbances that influence ecological processes supporting aquatic and terrestrial biota at population, species and assemblage levels (Resh et al. 1988; Lake 2000). The abundance and diversity of aquatic biota in rivers and streams are influenced indirectly by the spatial and temporal effects of flow regime on habitat structure and availability, and directly through the influence of flow regime on life-history strategies and the establishment of alien species. Therefore, impacts on the natural flow regime threaten aquatic biodiversity (Bunn & Arthington 2002). In the context of the entire flow regime, impacts on the low-flow regime (e.g. drought or extended periods of low flow as a result of water resource development) have significant effects on aquatic ecosystems, including the multi-scale persistence of biota (e.g. Lake 2003) from species persistence at an individual site to broader regional persistence, or to localised extinction. 1.1.2. Impact versus recovery In considering a low-flow event and how water resource management may affect the ecological outcomes, there are two related elements. Firstly, we need the ability to predict the likely ecological effect of the low-flow event with particular attention to any critical thresholds that may limit recovery. Secondly, we need an ability to predict the recovery trajectory (if any) from the low-flow event, which combines both the severity of the event (described as the ecological condition at the start of the recovery period) with the prevailing abiotic conditions for the recovery period within the context of the resilience of the ecosystem or biota. For example, in a perennial stream the general pattern following the onset of low flows is an initial reduction in available aquatic habitat as velocity decreases and water levels decline: this is followed by declining water quality. As water quality declines and the lowflow event continues there will be a gradual shift in the assemblage composition of a range of biota from taxa that are sensitive to changes in their environment (habitat availability, flow velocity or water quality), such as macroinvertebrates that prefer flowing conditions (rheophiles), to those more tolerant NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 1 of a broad range of conditions (Figure 1a). If low flows continue there will be an increasing loss of aquatic habitat and continued decline in water quality, along with a shift in the assemblage to one dominated by tolerant generalists. These community shifts are equally applicable to algal biofilms as well as macroinvertebrates, fish and even waterbirds. Following the return of flow to the system there will be a process of ‘recovery’ where habitat availability will increase, water quality will return to more suitable conditions and eventually the more ‘sensitive’ taxa will return to the community. A similar process can be seen in a hypothetical naturally intermittent site (Figure 1b). In this second example, the assemblage will be naturally dominated by tolerant and generalist taxa, with those taxa that have more specific habitat requirements (e.g. rheophiles) potentially making up smaller percentages of the assemblage abundance. Therefore, this conceptual succession must always be considered in relation to the spatial context of the site (whether the stream is naturally perennial or naturally ephemeral), the length of the low-flow event and the recent low-flow history (Figure 2). Through this project, we are looking to develop or describe methods that quantitatively measure both response and recovery potential to inform water resource planning. Ideas relating to this conceptual understanding of impact and recovery from low flows will be explored further in this review. 1.1.3. Thresholds, resistance and resilience Concepts of ecological thresholds, lag effects, resilience and resistance are applicable to identifying the ecological effects of low flows. Resistance (capacity to withstand a disturbance) and resilience (ability to recover from a disturbance) (Holling 1973; Lake 2000) are relevant to low flows as many biota can either persist during low-flow disturbances or recover rapidly afterwards. Ecological thresholds are particularly useful for determining how ‘stressed’ an ecosystem can be before sharp changes are detected associated with relatively small changes in an environmental driver (Huggett 2005; Groffman et al. 2006; Dodds et al. 2010). Lag effects are also important to recognise. For some biota (e.g. some aquatic macroinvertebrates), responses to a low-flow disturbance may only be evident after the disturbance has ceased and the loss of recruitment may be detected after flows return (e.g. Boulton 2003). Multiple analytical approaches exist to identify ecological thresholds in response to disturbances (e.g. Andersen et al. 2009; Dodds et al. 2010), but few studies have tested whether the concept of ecological thresholds holds in the context of low-flow stress. 1.1.4. Indicators of low flow Indicators that highlight a change in ecosystem structure or function as the result of a low-flow event and in response to flow recovery are necessary. This is to understand the impacts of low-flow disturbances on aquatic and riparian ecosystems and to assess the ecological responses to the management actions evoked to reduce or negate the negative effects of low flows. Indicators illustrating the effects of low flows vary in their sensitivity and temporal response (e.g. Dewson et al. 2007a; Death et al. 2009; Benejam et al. 2010) because mechanisms differ in the time taken to produce an ecological change that can be detected over naturally high background variability. Two key aspects when defining ecological indicators are: firstly, what each indicator demonstrates (Lindenmayer & Likens 2010) and, secondly, that multiple indicators are necessary to identify the response and recovery of disturbances (Kelly & Harwell 1990). As low flows affect aquatic ecosystems via multiple interacting mechanisms, a suite of ecological indicators is therefore necessary to obtain a complete perspective of the impacts and recovery of low flows. Ecological indicators can be grouped into ‘early warning’, ‘compliance’ and ‘diagnostic’ indicators (Cairns & McCormick 1992 cited in Boulton 1999; Dale & Beyeler 2001). Early-warning indicators highlight potential changes in ecosystem structure and function associated with a low-flow impact; compliance indicators reveal changes from acceptable or guideline limits; and diagnostic indicators identify the cause of changes in ecosystem condition. For example, in the context of low flows, increases in the density of riffle macroinvertebrates due to habitat contraction could be an early warning indicator of the impending loss of macroinvertebrate diversity (which would perhaps be a compliance indicator). Increased diel variation in temperature and dissolved oxygen could be a NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 2 potential diagnostic indicator of the loss of macroinvertebrate taxa sensitive to altered water quality. Identification and validation of early warning, compliance and diagnostic indicators are necessary to determine when aquatic ecosystems are at risk of future change and establish when an ecosystem has either permanently shifted to a new state or has recovered to the conditions preceding low flow. More information is contained in Early warning, compliance and diagnostic monitoring of ecological responses to low flows (Sheldon et al. 2012). 1.1.5. Generalising low-flow effects Classification of river flow regimes across large spatial ranges (e.g. entire continents, Kennard et al. 2010) has the potential to help management decisions by illustrating broadscale variations in flow regime. It also helps inform to what extent limited ecological information can be applied across rivers with varying flow regimes. As it is often logistically unfeasible to gather ecological data over large spatial scales at the temporal frequency necessary to determine thresholds of ecosystem response to low flows, it is necessary to determine how consistent the ecological responses to low flows among regions with similar low-flow regimes are. This is important because although many regions around the globe are likely to experience considerable changes to low-flow hydrology caused by human demands for water, land use changes and climate change, we have little or no information to identify the potential impacts on aquatic ecosystems and to inform management decisions. Mackay et al. (2012) have developed a low-flow classification of Australia as part of this low flows report series. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 3 High Diagnostic indicators Low Relative assemblage proportion of tolerant & generalist taxa High Relative assemblage proportion of rheophilic taxa Low High Low Good Compliance and/or Diagnostic indicators Water quality Poor High Low Available aquatic habitat High Low Velocity Discharge Early warning indicator Relative assemblage proportion of water quality sensitive taxa Time (a) High Relative assemblage proportion of tolerant & generalist taxa Low Diagnostic indicators High Low Relative assemblage proportion of rheophilictaxa High Relative assemblage proportion of water quality sensitive taxa Low Good Compliance and/or Diagnostic indicators Water quality Poor High Low Available aquatic habitat High Low Velocity Discharge Early warning indicator Time (b) Figure 1: Assessing impact and recovery is highly dependent on the sensitivity of the taxa and their response to declining aquatic habitat and water quality: (a) represents a succession of processes after the onset of low flow in a perennial stream, whereas (b) represents the same processes in a naturally intermittent stream. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 4 Flow Flow Flow Hours or Days Flood Pulse Months or Years Flow History Years Flow Regime Figure 2: Conceptual representation of temporal scale of hydrology from individual flow events, or pulses, to longer flow regimes (modified from Walker et al. 1995) NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 5 2. Quantifying the effect of low flow on stream ecology The increasing frequency of drought events, particularly in temperate regions, has stimulated research into the ecological effects of low flows and droughts (Table 1; Lake 2011). This research is generally focused on examining the effects of droughts and stream-channel drying on patterns in the composition of aquatic biota (predominantly macroinvertebrates and fish); physical-chemical water quality parameters and the structure and transport of energy in stream foodwebs (comparing perennial and intermittently flowing rivers); and assessing the ecological effects of water extraction. Results are used to ascertain the ecological consequences of increased frequencies of drought, of changing flow regimes from perennial to intermittent flow, and of increasing water extraction to support human demands – particularly in mid-latitude regions that are likely to experience greater frequencies and durations of low-flow events due to climate change (Boulton & Lake 2008; Table 1). Table 1 summarises key findings from this research. While the experimental designs and hypotheses vary across studies, there is a consistent finding that as the flow permanence decreases, so too does the presence of taxa with limited tolerance to high temperatures and poor water quality, which generally translates into a decline in diversity. While Table 1 summarises the key findings of selected literature to provide a context for the case studies, it is not a complete meta-analysis of the literature on low flows or studies that have examined impacts of low flows and drought. Such a task would be an interesting and potentially useful exercise, and Lake (2011) contains a much more detailed analysis of this topic. Patterns in the distribution and composition of benthic macroinvertebrates and fish assemblages are predominantly used to assess the ecological consequences of low flows. Far fewer studies examine the consequences of changes in the flow regime on amphibians, birds and ecosystem processes (Poff & Zimmerman 2010). However, there are numerous studies exploring the impacts of flow change on aquatic plants and algae. Aquatic algae, particularly diatoms, are known as good indicators of water quality (see McCormick & Cairns 1994; Biggs 1996; Biggs & Smith 2002; Bella et al. 2007; Ponader et al. 2007); and, as water quality is known to decline and change with the onset of reduced flow, diatoms are likely a very useful indicator of low-flow effect. As low flows reflect changes in both water level and velocity, benthic algal communities have been found to respond significantly to both velocity (Peterson & Stevenson 1992; Biggs & Stockseth 1996; Uehlinger et al. 1996; Jowett & Biggs 1997; Saravia et al. 1998; Matthaei et al. 2003; Ryder 2006; Villeneuve et al. 2010) and water level variations (Burns & Walker 2000; Robertson et al. 2001; Batten et al. 2003; Ryder 2004; Villeneuve et al. 2011), with desiccated biofilm able to respond rapidly to the return of flow in intermittent streams (Robson 2000; Robson et al. 2004). In lowland rivers, or places in intermittent streams where remnant or refugial pools form, phytoplanktonic algal communities have been shown to respond to longitudinal connection (Istvanovics et al. 2010) and water depth and velocity (Leland 2003), along with aspects of water quality (Rudek et al. 1991; Schemel et al. 2004). In dryland rivers (that spend long periods of time essentially under a low flow), where the river is confined to a series of disconnected waterholes, benthic algae have been shown to be the primary source of carbon dominating the foodweb (Bunn et al. 2003; Bunn et al. 2006) and driving productivity (Fellows et al. 2009). Aquatic macrophytes are also known to be influenced by reduced flow conditions: different life stages are often impacted differentially (Franklin et al. 2008), with frequency, seasonality, duration of inundation and drying, water depth, flow velocity, and flow variability all shown to influence macrophytes across different life stages (Roberts & Marston 2000). Drought was shown to lead to the decline in macrophyte cover due to increased silting in the United Kingdom (Wright & Berrie 1987), whereas macrophyte assemblages in temperate Australian rivers showed little response to water abstraction of up to 20 per cent (Chessman et al. 2008). Like macroinvertebrates and fish, the composition of aquatic plants such as benthic algal assemblages become increasingly dominated by desiccation-resistant taxa as the natural frequency and duration of reduced flows increases (e.g. Ledger et al. 2008). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 6 During flow reductions, macroinvertebrate assemblages typically increase in taxa richness and density due to habitat contraction. For example, benthic macroinvertebrates increased in density during both natural stream drying in Sapin, Spain (Acuña et al. 2005) and experimental flow diversions in New Zealand (Dewson et al. 2007b). Macroinvertebrate taxa that favour habitats with flowing water and are intolerant of the poorer water quality conditions typically associated with low flows and droughts usually become uncommon or extinct with an increasing duration of low flows and aquatic habitat disconnection. In streams in Victoria, Australia, assemblages of benthic macroinvertebrates in riffle habitats shifted from a dominance by rheophilic (‘flow-loving’) taxa sensitive to deteriorating water quality to an assemblage dominated by tolerant lentic (standing water) taxa during drought (Rose et al. 2008). During low flows, macroinvertebrate assemblages become increasingly dominated by predators and algal scrapers, with declines in the proportions of detritivorous collector-gatherers and filter-feeders (e.g. Miller et al. 2007). With increasing duration of low flows, macroinvertebrates may move to the hyporheic zone (the saturated sediments below the streambed) which may function as a source of aquatic recolonists following the return of higher flows (e.g. Wood et al. 2010); or in streams where hyporheic regions are limited or absent, they must find other refuges (e.g. moist zones under rocks or aquatic vegetation) (Boulton & Lake 1992b; Boulton 2003) or disperse to other more suitable habitats (Sheldon et al. 2010). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 7 Table 1: Summary of selected literature to elucidate key ecological responses to different low-flow scenarios (a more detailed account of ecological responses to low flow and drought is given by Lake (2011) Drought, stream drying Natural flow permanence gradient Experimental water extraction or diversion Actual water extraction or diversion Regions Australia (Victoria), United Kingdom, New Zealand, Spain, United States Zimbabwe, New Zealand, Spain, United States, United Kingdom New Zealand, Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, Sweden Australia (NSW), United States Time span of studies Single sample – 22 years Single sample – 2.5 years Three days – 2 years Single sample – 6 years Increased densities, diversity and dispersal (drift) during initial habitat contraction Reduced abundances of macroinvertebrates in refuge pools, particularly with fish present Increased densities, diversity and dispersal (drift) during initial habitat contraction Taxa with preference for flowing habitats and taxa with limited swimming abilities show greatest effect of extraction Loss of sensitive taxa susceptible to desiccation leading to decline in species richness, density and biomass Reduced taxa richness in ephemeral reaches when compared with intermittently or perennially flowing reaches Loss of sensitive taxa such as Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) families with increasing extraction Prolonged abstraction results in low-flow assemblage dominated by tolerant species Increased dominance of lowflow-tolerant taxa with increased duration of reduced flow Desiccation-resistant and highly mobile taxa dominate sites with increasing duration of low flow Reduced taxa richness, abundance and biomass with increasing duration of extraction Altered trophic organisation with increasing dominance of predators, scrapers Reduced dispersal (drift) Increased proportion of predatory species Interaction between water quality and flow regime indicates biota in pristine reaches less resistant and resilient to low flows Magnitude of assemblage change depends on magnitude of water extracted Increased use of hyporheic refuges with increasing low-flow duration and magnitude Intermittent sites characterised by high diversity but low abundance, smaller-bodied taxa Increased drift dispersal during major change to flow (e.g. 75% extraction) Reduced drift distance Indicator groups Macroinvertebrates Increasing proportion and density of predators, reduced proportion of collectorgatherers, filterers, scrapers Fish Distribution mediated by temperature and drought resistance Low fish density at intermittent sites when compared with perennial sites Increased movement and dispersal during low flows Negative relationship between increasing water extraction and proportion of fluvial species NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 8 Drought, stream drying Natural flow permanence gradient Experimental water extraction or diversion Actual water extraction or diversion Regions Australia (Victoria), United Kingdom, New Zealand, Spain, United States Zimbabwe, New Zealand, Spain, United States, United Kingdom New Zealand, Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, Sweden Australia (NSW), United States Time span of studies Single sample – 22 years Single sample – 2.5 years Three days – 2 years Single sample – 6 years Increased mortality and poorer condition of drought-intolerant taxa with increasing duration of low flow Increased proportion of habitatgeneralist taxa in intermittent or ephemeral sites Increased mortality with decreasing flow Increasing proportion of habitatgeneralist taxa in flow-extracted sites Reduced body size and condition Reduced total densities at flowextracted sites Altered composition between dry and wet years depending on low-flow tolerance Increased total abundances of fish with increasing flow permanence Macrophytes/periphyton composition/plants Decline in intolerant taxa at flow-extracted sites Reduced cover of macrophytes Altered composition towards desiccation-resistant taxa Little effect on richness or composition when low proportions of water extracted Encroachment of terrestrial plants with increasing duration Water quality Significant decrease in dissolved oxygen and increase in conductivity and temperature Increased diel temperature variation Increases in temperature, potentially confounded by seasonal changes Functional indicators (primary production, detritus retention, detritus breakdown, energy flow) Reduced energy flow between energy sources and consumers Increased retention of course particulate organic material (CPOM) Reduced energy flow between energy sources and consumers Increased sedimentation and retention of detritus with increased duration Increasing primary production with increasing duration of extraction Increasing primary production with increasing duration of extraction NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 9 Drought, stream drying Natural flow permanence gradient Experimental water extraction or diversion Actual water extraction or diversion Regions Australia (Victoria), United Kingdom, New Zealand, Spain, United States Zimbabwe, New Zealand, Spain, United States, United Kingdom New Zealand, Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, Sweden Australia (NSW), United States Time span of studies Single sample – 22 years Single sample – 2.5 years Three days – 2 years Single sample – 6 years Supporting examples Reduced quality of benthic organic matter to support microbial activity Reduced trophic complexity due to loss of biota Larimore et al. 1959 Chessman & Robinson 1987 Wright & Berrie 1987 Closs 1994 Closs & Lake 1994 Clinton et al.1996 Closs & Lake 1996 Wood & Petts 1999 Caruso 2002 Boulton 2003 Suren et al. 2003 Hakala & Hartman 2004 Wood & Armitage 2004 Acuña et al. 2005 Bonada et al. 2006 Sotiropoulos et al. 2006 Westwood et al. 2006 Bêche & Resh 2007 Davey & Kelly 2007 Magalhães et al. 2007 Rose et al. 2008 Bêche et al. 2009 Stubbington et al. 2009 Wood et al. 2010 Ylla et al. 2010 Sponseller et al. 2010 Reduced leaf breakdown with increasing low-flow stress No change in food chain length over three months Feminella et al.1996 Miller & Golladay 1996 Fowler 2004 Wood et al.2005 Datry et al. 2007 Larned et al. 2007 Chakona et al. 2008 Nhiwatiwa et al. 2009 Bonada et al. 2007 Datry et al. 2010 Arscott et al. 2010 Mas-Marti et al. 2010 Robson 2000 McKay & King 2006 Dewson et al. 2007a Dewson et al. 2007b Dewson et al. 2007d Ledger et al. 2008 Walters & Post 2008 James et al. 2008b Leberfinger et al. 2008 James et al. 2009 James & Suren 2009 Riley et al. 2009 Walters & Post 2011 Rader & Belish 1999, Freeman & Marcinek 2006 Miller et al. 2007 Chessman et al. 2008 Finn et al. 2009 Kanno & Vokourn 2010 Benejam et al. 2010 Brooks et al. 2011 Chessman et al. 2011 NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 10 Low flows generally result in greater mortality of fish, leading to reduced densities and altered assemblage composition because of a decline in the proportion of fluvial/rheophilic species. The spatial distribution of fish during low flows depends on species-specific tolerances to loss of habitat and increasing harshness of environmental conditions (e.g. Closs & Lake 1996; Davey & Kelly 2007). Species that have broad habitat requirements are generally able to resist low flows or flow cessation for much longer than fluvial species (e.g. Mas-Marti et al. 2010). As well as reduced population viability (e.g. densities), individual fish size and condition has been found to decline during experimentally reduced flows. For example, fish in stream reaches where water was experimentally extracted for three months were significantly smaller than in undiverted reaches (Walters & Post 2008). This suggests that measures of individual fish condition and size may have application for predicting declines in population size with increasing low-flow stress (Figure 3). Figure 3: Conceptual model of fish response to a cease-to-flow event Most low-flow studies compare either: ecological patterns and processes through time, such as drought assessments (e.g. Rose et al. 2008; Baptista et al. 2010) perennial versus intermittently flowing streams, or treatment versus control reaches when assessing the impacts of water extraction (e.g. Benejam et al. 2010). Based on our knowledge of the ecological impacts of low flows (Table 1), it appears there is a relationship between the cumulative duration (i.e. including the interaction between frequency of events and duration of individual events) and ecological response to low flows across all ecosystems. The specific magnitude of discharge that constitutes a low-flow event depends on the natural flow regime experienced by individual rivers. This means it is difficult to define a ‘low flow’ broadly across geographic and climatic regions (Smahktin 2001; Dewson et al. 2007; Larned et al. 2010; Suren & Riis 2010). Frequently ‘low flow’ is defined in hydrologic contexts based on flow exceedence probabilities (e.g. 95 per cent exceedence flow) or deviations from baseflow (e.g. Suren & Riis 2010). For the purpose of this project we have defined low flow as the volume (i.e. magnitude) of water that occurs over a given frequency and duration that is responsible for a mechanistic change in the processes and structure of aquatic ecosystems (including surface water, groundwater and estuaries), NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 11 relative to the average or median discharge for an individual river (or river reach). We emphasise that this implies that ecologically relevant definitions of low flow will never be universally applicable given spatial variation in river-flow regimes and also the temporal scale at which ‘low flow’ events are quantified (sensu Biggs et al. 2005). The relationship between low-flow response and background hydrological variation was highlighted by Finn et al. (2009) who found that the macroinvertebrate assemblage composition patterns of two rivers in temperate Australia with differing water extraction during low flows were significantly associated with the long-term (365-day) antecedent flow characteristics, such as the cumulative duration of low flow variables (Finn et al. 2009). Patterns in ecosystem structure and function among river reaches with differences in flow permanence (e.g. perennially flowing reaches versus intermittent reaches) indicate that ecological responses are primarily structured along a gradient of flow permanence (Table 1). 2.1. Implications of multiple environmental stressors associated with low flows Low flows are almost always associated with changes in other variables of importance to stream ecosystem structure and function. Low flows, particularly in temperate regions, are associated with higher air temperatures and, consequently, increased water temperatures (e.g. Chessman & Robinson 1987). To effectively manage the consequences of low flows, the causal mechanisms of low-flow ecological responses must be understood (Downes 2010). For example, many benthic macroinvertebrates are particularly sensitive to temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity (Chessman 2003): three water quality measures that are known to be affected by low flows. Separating the impact of seasonal variations in water quality (e.g. temperature) from the effects of low flows is difficult, meaning that without experimental evidence, the direct effect of low flows cannot be determined with certainty. Nutrient enrichment, sedimentation and increased pressure from higher-order consumers on prey (e.g. macroinvertebrates) are examples of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems that often occur simultaneously with low flows. These multiple stressors mean that, in many cases, accurately predicting the effects of low flows is difficult because interactions with other variables are inconsistent during low flows. For example, patterns in benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage composition associated with low flows in New Zealand rivers depended on the level of nutrient enrichment among rivers (Suren et al. 2003b). Densities of macroinvertebrates in intermittent rivers in Zimbabwe have been reduced by the effect of predatory fish (Nhiwatiwa et al. 2009), implying that the effect of low flows on macroinvertebrates may be caused by increased predation pressure by consumers rather than loss of habitat, although it may have been the loss of habitat that increased predation pressure. Also, effects of sedimentation and nutrient enrichment on benthic macroinvertebrates intensify during reduced flow conditions (Matthaei et al. 2010). These consistent responses to low flows suggest some underlying principles. 2.2. Quantifying recovery from low flow Floods and drought are natural phenomena in river ecosystems. To make informed management decisions, understanding ecosystem recovery (i.e. resilience) is necessary to determine how modifying low-flow hydrology (e.g. altering frequency, duration, timing etc.) can threaten the long-term resilience of aquatic ecosystems. Very few studies of the ecological impact of water extraction or drought determine the response of biota and ecosystem processes during flow recovery (e.g. Dewson et al. 2007a; James et al. 2008a; McKay & King 2006; Stubbington et al. 2009) – a period that is especially critical to determining the long-term persistence of stream biota. Ecosystem recovery trajectories generally follow the same pattern for indicators during the return of higher-flow conditions (Table 2). Water quality rapidly returns to pre-drought conditions (e.g. Chessman & Robinson 1987), and the quality of organic matter increases to support greater biomass NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 12 of macroinvertebrates (e.g. Ylla et al. 2010). Over time, foodwebs become more complex with increasing richness of biota (e.g. macroinvertebrates, fish, birds). Initial recovery is usually rapid for macrophytes, algae, macroinvertebrates and fish, particularly for species tolerant of low flow. Refugia are critical to the recovery of biota following drought and facilitate rapid recovery (Magoulick & Kobza 2003). Those species that are particularly sensitive to low-flow conditions either become extinct over time (with repeated low-flow events) or show prolonged recovery times (e.g. Boulton 2003; Lake 2011). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 13 Table 2: Summary of examples of ecological recovery trajectories following low-flow conditions Ecological indicator group Recovery trajectories Examples Water quality Rapid (<1 month) return to pre-drought conditions Chessman & Robinson 1987 Foodwebs Quality of organic matter supporting foodweb increased with flow recovery Ylla et al. 2010 Increased trophic complexity; initial recovery of foodwebs dependent on order of return of consumers; long-term recovery trajectories converge over time Closs & Lake 1994 Murdock et al. 2010 Macrophytes/algae Rapid recovery from short-term drought (<1 year) Wright & Berrie 1987 Holmes et al. 1999 Robson & Matthews 2004 Macroinvertebrates Rapid recovery of desiccation-resistant and mobile taxa following low flows; recruitment of sensitive taxa may be affected for multiple generations after disturbance Larimore et al. 1959 Boulton & Lake 1992b Miller & Golladay 1996 Rader & Belish 1999 Pires et al. 2000 Boulton 2003 Bêche et al. 2009 Assemblage recovery following low flow does not occur until water quality conditions have returned to levels within tolerances of biota Miller et al. 2007 Complete loss of sensitive taxa after prolonged drought followed by prolonged recovery increases composition similarity Feminella 1996 Miller & Golladay 1996 Wood & Armitage 1999 Wood et al. 1999 Fowler 2004 Wood & Armitage 1994 Acuña et al. 2005 Rapid recovery once flow and water quality conditions allow; delayed recovery of sensitive taxa Larimore et al. 1959 Closs & Lake 1996 Hakala & Hartman 2004 Increased species richness and proportion of fluvial specialist species Travnichek et al.1995 Recovery dependent on refugia and dispersal characteristics Davey & Kelly 2007 Bêche et al. 2009 Fish NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 14 3. Key principles and conceptual models of low-flow processes The literature reviewed to quantify the ecological response to, and recovery from, low-flow events is consistent in either detecting significant relationships or hypothesising significant processes. However, from a water resource management perspective, it is important to not only know that low flows have specific ecological impacts, but also to be able to both quantify and predict these impacts and recovery potentials. This project’s 11 case studies and accompanying synthesis report (Marsh et al. 2012) undertook such an analysis by using existing biological datasets to test the robustness of hydro-ecological relationships for predictive modelling and planning applications. Because we wanted a systematic approach from which to interpret results, and draw conclusions and generalisations useful for water resource planning, we first set out to identify some key low-flow principles that we could test via the case studies. 3.1. Low-low principles There are two general predictions that relate to the role of low-flow history and ecological response: (i) the magnitude of ecological response to a low-flow event will be a function of past exposure manifested as the condition of the biological community at the onset of the low-flow period and the sensitivity (species traits) of the assemblage (ii) the ecological response will be driven by changes in physical habitat and perhaps the resulting increase in intensity of biological interactions, and these responses will vary with past exposure. To help interpret the impacts of low-flow hydrology on aquatic ecosystems, we have translated these two predictions into four guiding principles (Figure 4). These principles build on the concepts presented in Bunn and Arthington (2002) in which aquatic ecosystem responses to altered flow regimes are outlined. Ecological principles, and their underlying conceptual models, are useful for the managers of aquatic environments because they highlight (a) the mechanisms through which various stressors can impact ecosystems, and (b) the processes that influence the recovery of ecosystems from disturbances (Lake et al. 2007). Our principles describe the effects of low flow on aquatic ecology and can be used to predict ecosystem responses – both as a result of altered flow regimes and naturally through the onset of drought – and include recognition of the response with the initial onset of low flows, along with longer-term effects and the process of recovery (Figure 5). The principles are: Ecological low-flow principle 1: Low flows control the physical extent and arrangement of aquatic habitat, therefore influencing ecological patterns and processes. Ecological low-flow principle 2: Low flows influence physical and biological conditions in remaining aquatic habitats, which drives changes in ecosystem patterns and processes. Ecological low-flow principle 3: Low flows affect the sources and exchange of energy in aquatic ecosystems, altering ecosystem production and biotic composition. Ecological low-flow principle 4: Low flows restrict dispersal, influencing multi-scale ecological patterns and processes and increasing the importance of refugia to sustain biota. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 15 Figure 4: Four principles outline the broad mechanistic links between low flow and processes and patterns in riverine ecosystems. These links do not operate in isolation, and many ecological pathways that are affected by low flows are likely to occur simultaneously, potentially resulting in similar or synergistic and complex consequences NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 16 Timeframe Initial response Medium-long term response Recovery Proportional shifts in assemblage composition Reduced habitat availability and quality (Principle 2) Habitat space (Principle 1) ? streamlined ? drifting ? erosional ? armoured Changes in energy flow (Principle 3) Change in the spatial connectivity of habitat (Principle 4) ? sensitive taxa ? resistant taxa ? trophicgeneralist taxa ? desiccation resistant taxa ? habitat generalist taxa ? Tegument ? Pollution sensitive ? Gilled breathers ? Sedentary (low mobility) ? Long adult life span ? Semi or univoltine ? Seasonal taxa ? Slow seasonal development ? Consumer production ? Dietary specialisation (e.g. Filter feeders, herbivores) ? Fast seasonal development ? Inter & intra species competition ?Assemblage homogenisation ?Diversity (Alpha, beta, gamma) ? Air breather (plastron) ? Mobile taxa ? Multivoltine ? Small bodied ? Pool -dwelling biota ? Niche generalist Dashed lines along temporal axis indicate timelines for inducing ecological response to low flows vary significantly (based on regime, antecedent conditions and other environmental stressor effects). Figure 5: Expected response based on habitat changes. Dashed lines along the temporal axis indicate timelines for inducing ecological response to low flows vary significantly (based on regime, antecedent conditions and other environmental stressor effects). 3.1.1. Ecological low-flow principle 1: Low flows control the physical extent and arrangement of aquatic habitat, therefore influencing ecological patterns and processes Low flows obviously result in considerable physical changes to aquatic habitats. These physical changes typically result in reduced wetted area, habitat volume, depth and instantaneous flow velocity (i.e. shear stress). Effects of flows on aquatic habitat depend on the local-scale (i.e. patches and reaches) interaction between hydrology and geomorphology, resulting in effects of low flows mediated by changes in specific hydraulic conditions. Consequently, habitats with little geomorphological gradient, such as pools, experience little change in area, depth and volume during significant reductions in flow when compared with habitats that have steeper gradients (e.g. riffles) (e.g. Hakala & Hartman 2004). In floodplain habitats, low flows typically result in disconnection between floodplain and river-channel habitats. Low flows typically result in short-term increases in density and diversity (taxa richness) of aquatic biota in rivers and streams, primarily due to habitat contraction. Riffle and other fast-flowing hydraulic habitats shrink in depth and area, resulting in the concentration of benthic macroinvertebrates (e.g. Boulton 2003; Dewson et al. 2007a; Finn et al. 2009). Reduced shear stress (instantaneous flow velocity) and loss of flow disturbances also result in increased biomass of benthic algae and macrophytes (e.g. Ryder et al. 2006). Densities of benthic macroinvertebrates are often greatest immediately before flow cessation in riffles (e.g. Acuña et al. 2005), then show significant declines in richness and density of species that favour flowing-water habitats (rheophilic macroinvertebrates) and those taxa intolerant to increased variation in habitat conditions (see ecological low-flow principle 2). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 17 Prolonged low flows are associated with reduced densities and loss of rheophilic taxa (Haxton & Findlay 2008). Biota that have low dispersal abilities show the greatest effects of low flows (e.g. Miller et al. 2010; Walters 2011), whereas desiccation-resistant taxa or those taxa that can recruit during low flows dominate during low flows (e.g. Bonada et al. 2007; Ledger et al. 2008). Low flows are also associated with an altered population structure of species due to loss of cohorts susceptible to changes in rearing habitat (e.g. Riley et al. 2009) or reduced energy sources required to sustain higher concentrations (i.e. biomass) of larger adult predators such as fish (e.g. Elliott et al. 1997). Prolonged low flows leading to increased densities of consumers and reduced flood disturbances also increase competition for energy sources. Increased competition during low flows has two key ecological outcomes. Firstly, increased competition contributes to loss of species and reduced abundance in the medium to long term. Secondly, altered densities of consumers can produce trophic cascades in the short to medium term, resulting in a loss of trophic complexity (e.g. Closs & Lake 1994) or increased biomass of primary energy sources (e.g. autochthonous benthic algae) as a result of reduced grazing pressure from herbivorous macroinvertebrates that become subject to increased predation pressure by higher-level consumers (e.g. Power et al. 1985). Potential early warning indicators of low flows associated with loss of habitat include increases in the richness, density and dispersal (i.e. drift) of biota such as benthic macroinvertebrates. These increases suggest an impending loss of biota and species intolerant of prolonged low flows. Changes to the diversity and density of specific biota would therefore have potential application as a compliance indicator, particularly if a proportion of species in the local species pool is expected to be affected by prolonged low flows. Coupled with biological information, data on the hydraulic habitat conditions (e.g. changes in area, volume, velocity) or knowledge of life-history patterns may serve as diagnostic indicators by illustrating the underlying mechanisms causing changes in biota (Figure 1; also see Sheldon et al. 2011 for a detailed discussion of monitoring approaches and indicators for low flows). Aspects of low-flow hydrology that may indicate changes in ecosystem structure due to changes in physical habitat include the rate of reduction in flow (drawdown) and its timing, magnitude and duration. Prolonged droughts can result in loss of biotic resilience. For example, fish and macroinvertebrates showed persistent effects over 10 years after a five-year drought in Californian streams (Bêche et al. 2009), and the effects of low flows are often only detected after low-flow conditions have started to occur (e.g. Dewson et al. 2007a). The magnitude of low flows can have variable impacts on stream biota: benthic macroinvertebrates occupying pools and the hyporheic zone often show little response to extreme low-flow drawdown (e.g. around 90 per cent of flow from a mean discharge of 56–275 ls-1), yet benthic riffle macroinvertebrates showed significant increases in population densities (Dewson et al. 2007a; James et al. 2008b). Rapid changes in flows, such as rapid flow drawdown, can strand fish and macroinvertebrates in residual pools (e.g. Bradford 1997). Similar responses are likely to be seen for other physical habitats in streams and rivers, such as exposed wood, rocky substrates, littoral macrophytes and edge habitat. 3.1.2. Ecological low-flow principle 2: Low flows influence physical and biological conditions in remaining aquatic habitats, which drives changes in ecosystem patterns and processes Reduced flows affect the physical and chemical conditions within remaining aquatic habitats. Low flows typically alter water quality conditions, decreasing dissolved oxygen and increasing conductivity and diel variation in temperature and dissolved oxygen. Low flows often coincide with the warmest air temperatures (i.e. during summer), therefore increasing evaporation and water temperatures. Increased sedimentation of benthic habitats is also often associated with low flows (e.g. Dewson et al. 2007c). Reduced turbulence of the remaining water, due to reduced velocity, also increases stratification of temperature and dissolved oxygen in residual pools and waterholes. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 18 The ecological consequences of altered habitat conditions during low flows are reflected in the distribution and abundance of biota according to thresholds of water quality tolerances. For example, increased water temperatures during summer significantly reduce survival of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in streams in North America (Xu et al. 2010). Low flows can result in hypoxic (deprived of oxygen) conditions, thereby restricting species that can either tolerate or adapt to low dissolved oxygen levels (e.g. Chessman 2003; McNeil & Closs 2007). Increased sedimentation of benthic habitats drives changes in the composition of benthic and hyporheic biota, producing homogenous assemblages that reflect similarities in substrate (Boulton 2007). Measuring indicators of changes to low-flow-habitat conditions includes quantifying changes in substrate composition and physical and chemical water quality attributes during flow recession. Water quality attributes could include both surface and hyporheic water quality conditions, and those water quality indicators that are likely to become critical for sensitive biota as flow and water levels decline (pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, temperature, dissolved organic carbon). Biological indicators could include patterns in the composition of biota associated with patterns in water quality to detect both relationship and threshold responses. For example, a measurement of overall diversity (number of taxa) may not detect critical threshold changes occurring within a low-flow stressed system as sensitive taxa are lost but perhaps replaced with tolerant taxa, so the overall number of taxa does not change. More specific indicators that focus on the proportion of taxa with specific traits (e.g. percentage of rheophilic taxa in the assemblage – requirement of flow) may better detect threshold responses. Low-flow hydrological attributes that have ecological relevance by inducing change in ecosystem structure and function include timing, duration and magnitude of low flows. River discharge interacts with seasonal variations to drive ecologically significant changes in water quality (e.g. Sheldon & Fellows 2010), to the extent that reduced flows in different seasons have markedly different ecological responses. For example, the 24-hour minimum dissolved oxygen concentration experienced by a remnant waterbody during winter, when water temperatures are cooler, may not reach critical thresholds for biota compared with the same remnant waterbody in summer, when higher water temperatures cause a reduction in the solubility of oxygen leading to greatly reduced oxygen saturation. Likewise, the increased evaporation potential during a summer low-flow event may act to reduce available aquatic habitat faster than the same low-flow event in winter. The magnitude of diel variation in water quality varies with the size of remaining habitats (a function of the interaction of flow magnitude and habitat-scale topography): with smaller, shallow habitats experiencing greater diel variation when compared with larger, deeper and more complex habitats. Low-flow duration and magnitude interact. 3.1.3. Ecological low-flow principle 3: Low flows affect the sources and exchange of energy in aquatic ecosystems, altering ecosystem production and biotic composition Low flows reduce the lateral connections between river channels, riparian zones and floodplains. Longitudinal water-borne transport of energy is disrupted due to increased disconnection between habitat patches at the reach scale. This results in increased retention of large volumes of organic detritus, such as terrestrial plant matter (e.g. Boulton & Lake 1992a). Despite this increase in detritus, leaf breakdown rates can decline due to limited physical breakdown and microbial conditioning (e.g. Leberfinger et al. 2010; Ylla et al. 2010), resulting in altered foodweb structure due to reduced inputs of allochthonous energy. However, this pattern varies among flow regimes (e.g. Reid et al. 2008). Filter-feeding macroinvertebrates experience reduced densities due to the decline in longitudinal transport of energy and loss of flowing-water habitats (e.g. Walters & Post 2011). Benthic invertebrate drift also declines (e.g. Sotiropoulos et al. 2006), resulting in decreased production of drift-feeding consumers such as fish (e.g. Harvey et al. 2006) or forcing prey-switching to terrestrial energy sources such as insects (e.g. Sotiropoulos et al. 2006). The impact of low flows on productivity is most consistent in estuarine ecosystems, with reduced discharge associated with reduced production NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 19 of fish (e.g. Loneragan & Bunn 1999; Vorwerk et al. 2009); however, similar insights into river systems have been shown in dryland rivers where Bunn et al. (2003) estimated that one day’s production on the floodplain of the flooded Cooper Creek (i.e. over an area of 14 000 km2) was equivalent to about 80 years of waterhole production during low or zero flow (Bunn et al. 2006a). Changes to the duration and magnitude of low flows, particularly over seasonal or annual time scales, are relevant to predicting and assessing patterns in ecosystem production, particularly at higher trophic levels such as fish or waterbirds. Altered sources of energy can be assessed at finer temporal scales, such as weeks to months (e.g. Acuña et al. 2005), indicating that short-term periods of low flows can be used to predict long-term changes to ecosystem production with prolonged low flows (see Bunn et al. 2006b). Reduced transport and production at intermediate levels of the food chain are often detected over periods of weeks to seasons (e.g. Harvey et al. 2006; Death et al. 2009). 3.1.4. Ecological low-flow principle 4: Low flows restrict dispersal, influencing multi-scale ecological patterns and processes and increasing the importance of refugia to sustain biota Low flows restrict movement of biota between habitats, river reaches and throughout river networks. During declining flows, refuge habitats become increasingly important for sustaining diversity, particularly throughout river networks. Reduced flows may also trigger biota to seek out refuge habitats (Magoulick & Kobza 2003), yet often simultaneously restrict movement. Species vary in their ability to access and persist in low-flow refuge habitats (e.g. Crook et al. 2010), resulting in sequential changes to biodiversity, particularly at reach and catchment scales. Provision of refugia increases biotic resilience during and following low flows by providing habitat for source populations when higher-flow conditions return. Low-flow water extraction in rivers in Austria has been shown to increase habitat fragmentation and reduce movement and persistence of bullhead (Cottus gobio) (Fischer & Kummer 2000). Therefore, loss of refugia is likely to have widespread consequences for biodiversity at the catchment scale (e.g. Robson & Mathews 2004; Rayner et al. 2009; Leigh et al. 2010). Patterns in measures of biodiversity can be used to assess the effects of prolonged low flows and loss of refuge habitats and/or complete drying of river reaches. During low flows and flow recession, reach- and catchment-scale variability in population density and assemblage structure (i.e. beta diversity) increase over time as local-scale factors (e.g. predation) structure biotic composition. Increased duration of low flows results in a loss of sensitive taxa, consequently reducing assemblage variability (e.g. Magalhães et al. 2002). As beta diversity declines, large-scale biodiversity (i.e. gamma diversity) declines as flow-dependent biota and taxa intolerant to poor water quality become extinct. Frequency and duration of low flows are especially important for large-scale biodiversity, as it is predicted that separate low-flow events act as a biological ‘filter’, removing biota intolerant of low flows from the reach or regional species pool (e.g. Bonada et al. 2007). 3.2. Temporal considerations of low-flow impact and recovery The impact of, and subsequent recovery from, low-flow events will vary spatially depending on background hydrological conditions. For example, upland perennial streams will likely have different responses to, and recovery trajectories from, a low-flow event when compared with a semi-arid river. The spatial context of low flows has been explored in the low-flow classification report (Mackay et al. 2012) and to some extent reflects the hydro-ecological classification undertaken by Kennard et al. (2010). Within the spatial classification of low-flow classes of streams (Mackay et al. 2012) there will also be a temporal signal, whereby the responses to any one low-flow event are a reflection of the NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 20 temporal history of low flows over both short (weeks to months) and long (years to decades) time scales. It is therefore important to consider specific hydrological conditions before, during and after a low-flow event to inform interpretations of the broad principles, and four key considerations are identified below. For example, the extent of aquatic habitat (principle 1) at the onset of a low flow will be a function of prior hydrological conditions (consideration 1) – is the low flow coming right after a series of very high flows (where soil etc. will be saturated and perhaps baseflow high) or is it coming during a relatively dry time where the same hydrological low-flow event (as above) may be more severe? 3.2.1. Consideration 1: Hydrological conditions before low-flow events provide the context for subsequent biotic responses, and post-event hydrology affects ecological recovery Antecedent conditions constitute the hydrological characteristics to which aquatic biota and their habitats are exposed before each hydrological disturbance event. These conditions affect the response and recovery of the biota and ecosystems to low flows. For example, long-term antecedent conditions in intermittent prairie streams in Kansas, United States, were the driving factor behind invertebrate responses to low flows and drought, having a stronger effect than low-flow duration and frequency and distance to refugia (Fritz & Dodds 2005). This suggests that historical factors influence evolutionary adaptations of aquatic biota to low flows, especially when low-flow periods are more extreme than those experienced on average. Indeed, antecedent flow permanence was critical in determining the invertebrate community response to supra-seasonal low flows in Derbyshire streams, United Kingdom (Stubbington et al. 2009). Compared with flood responses, however, our understanding of in-stream ecological responses to long supra-seasonal droughts in perennial rivers is incomplete (Wood & Armitage 2004). Following low-flow periods, recovery of aquatic biota will depend on several factors. Unless aquatic organisms have developed adaptations such as long dormant phases, rapid development and prolific reproduction, the ecological impacts of drought can be more long-lasting than the effects of floods (Gordon 2004). For example, the recovery of invertebrates within a groundwater-dependent river (Canterbury, United Kingdom) following a supra-seasonal drought took two years, which corresponded with the recovery of groundwater inputs (Wood & Armitage 2004). Experimental inundation of sediment samples taken from an ephemeral reach of the Selwyn River (New Zealand) with 1–592 days preceding dry periods found that macroinvertebrate taxa richness, sediment respiration and microbial activity decreased linearly with length of the dry period (Larned et al. 2007). These authors suggested long-term data were required to assess ecological recovery from low-flow and drought events. This area of study is particularly lacking in low-flow ecohydrological research (e.g. Dewson et al. 2007a). Confounding our lack of understanding of recovery, taxa may experience differential lag periods following low-flow events, due to different levels of tolerance and adaptations to antecedent conditions and low flows (e.g. macroinvertebrates, Boulton 2003). For example, rapid recovery of invertebrates after extreme low-flow events in New Zealand streams (Caruso 2002) suggests different taxa and trophic levels may have different levels of resilience to low-flow hydrology. Recovery following lowflow and drought events will also depend on event duration, timing, frequency, and magnitude as well as source populations (Lake 2003, 2011) (see below). Similar patterns of recovery of algal communities after the cessation or low flow, or drying events, have been observed (Robson 2000). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 21 3.2.2. Consideration 2: Duration of low-flow events affects species diversity, survival and life-history strategies Aquatic biota have evolved life-history strategies in response to natural flow regimes, which include low-flow events (Bunn & Arthington 2002). In terms of low-flow duration, however, we lack any detailed understanding of these responses. This may result from the focus of many studies on only short low-flow events (i.e. weeks to months), which has generally resulted in undetectable responses (e.g. Dare et al. 2002; Magalhaes et al. 2007; Miller et al. 2007; James & Suren 2009). Despite this, and the fact that past ecohydrological assessments rarely considered the duration of low flows (Jowett 1997), several studies have reported specific ecological responses as detailed below. In Australia, studies have demonstrated that taxa exhibit different life-history responses to the duration of low-flow events, and in different geographical locations. For example, Milton and Arthington (1983, 1984, 1985) reported that a range of unrelated fish species concentrate reproduction during the dry season in south-east Queensland when the risk of high-flow events that may reduce larval and juvenile survival is low. Similarly, melanotaeniid rainbowfishes in tropical stream systems also recruit most strongly during predictable periods of low flow (Pusey et al. 2000). Humphries et al. (1999) developed the ‘low-flow recruitment hypothesis’ to explain why some fish species in the Murray-Darling Basin spawn and recruit within in-channel habitats during the warmest months and lowest flow events. The hypothesis predicts that some fish species take advantage of the extended low-flow periods that occur in certain regions of the river system and lead to the concentration of appropriate-sized prey such as zooplankton, the biomass of which was shown to positively correlate with water residence time and temperature and negatively correlate with flow. In addition, golden perch (Macquaria ambigua) and silver perch (Bidyanus bidyanus) are well-suited to the semi-arid and temperate hydrology of the Murray-Darling river system by their longevity and opportunistic method of growth (Mallen-Cooper & Stuart 2003). Both species have exhibited strong recruitment in non-flood years compared with poor recruitment in flood years. However, the duration of low-flow events does not have a consistent effect on all taxa in all regions. In general, reduction in habitat availability and size of refugia during extended low-flow periods is likely to increase competitive interactions among taxa due to limited resources (food and habitat) (Pusey & Bradshaw 1996; Bond et al. 2008). Reduction of flow magnitude may exacerbate this phenomenon, as feeding success (gut fullness) of fish has been shown to decline as flows reduce (Sotiropoulus et al. 2006). Increased competition and reduced feeding on invertebrate drift has been found consistently under low-flow conditions (e.g. Closs 1994; Pires et al. 1999), and a combination of duration and magnitude has been identified as the most important hydrological determinant for fish abundances in a gravel-bed New Zealand river (Jowett et al. 2005). As low-flow periods extend and habitat quality declines or becomes unstable, physically tolerant taxa are likely to dominate, particularly carnivores (Gasith & Resh 1999; Puckridge et al. 1998; Pires et al. 1999). Starvation and death may occur even in these species (Burford et al. 2008). In addition, extended low flows may increase the retention of organic matter in streams and refugia, which in turn causes declines in dissolved oxygen and habitat suitability (Lake 2003). The influence of periodic resource limitation and the physical challenge posed by continued periods of low flow has been shown to reduce the regional biodiversity of stream fishes (Oberdorff et al. 1995). The increased competition for food and habitat, and the interacting impacts of low flows on the biomass and production of both energy sources and consumers (e.g. algae, macroinvertebrates and fish), may eventually lead to trophic cascades (Lake et al. 2007), as shown in streams in Portugal and the United States (Pires et al. 1999; Sotiropoulos et al. 2006). This may also manifest as a result of successional processes in algal and invertebrate communities due to low flows and their duration. For example, Suren et al. (2003a) detected changes in invertebrate communities during summer low flows in New Zealand streams in association with increases in filamentous algae, which correlated with number of days at low flow. Time between freshes (i.e. the low-flow duration between pulses) NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 22 has been identified as the most important limiting factor for algal growth in New Zealand rivers (Caruso 2001). 3.2.3. Consideration 3: Magnitude and duration of low-flow events affect the availability and quality of habitat and the structure, diversity, persistence and recovery of biotic assemblages Few studies explicitly separate the effects of low-flow magnitude and duration on stream ecosystems. For example, trophic interactions and ecosystem production are strongly associated with the duration and magnitude of flow reduction in flowing waters, extending downstream into estuaries (Glaister 1978; Livingston et al. 1997; Loneragan & Bunn 1999). However, the interactions and their effects will vary depending on functional feeding mode and the energy requirements of individual taxa. For macroinvertebrates, abundances of shredders and predators rose during low-flow periods when compared with normal conditions in Colorado, United States, whereas collector-gatherers reduced in abundance (Canton et al. 1984). It has been hypothesised that these effects are due to a higher biomass of shredders being supported by the increased retention of detritus, and reduced habitat and increasing predation pressure on collector-gatherers (Canton et al. 1984). One of the most apparent effects of reduced magnitude and extended duration on aquatic biota is loss and fragmentation of habitat: low flows limit the size and availability of in-stream habitats (see Duration section above). Many studies predict that the most significant ecological changes to stream ecosystems during low-flow events will occur in flowing riffle habitats (e.g. Dewson et al. 2007a; Finn et al. 2009; Poff et al. 2010). This habitat is consistently shown to be the most altered by low flows (Hakula & Hartman 2004). The vulnerability of riffle habitats to change during periods of low flow has consequences for biota dependent on this habitat type. For example, the highly diverse endemic freshwater fish fauna of Queensland’s Wet Tropics region (second only to Western Australia’s Kimberley region in terms of endemic species richness (Unmack 2001)) is composed largely of riffledwelling species, particularly gobies (Pusey et al. 2008). The development of endemic specialist riffledwellers suggests that riffle habitats in this region have not experienced prolonged or spatially extensive low flows over a long period and highlights the potential impacts of artificially induced low flows in perennial streams. As riffles contract and dry, slow-flowing and deeper habitats (e.g. pools) become more important as refugia for fish, macroinvertebrates and algae. Many studies show that wetted width, depth and flow velocity all decrease in response to reduced low flows (e.g. Harvey et al. 2006; Sotiropoulos et al. 2006; Hay 2009). For macroinvertebrates, these habitat changes first tend to be associated with increased faunal densities due to concentration within the contracting habitats (e.g. Boulton & Lake 1992), followed by declines as the low-flow period extends (e.g. Cowx et al. 1984; Outridge 1988; Stubbington et al. 2009). However, in systems where riffle and refugia habitats (e.g. pools) are closely arranged, broadscale changes in biotic assemblages may not be detected. Indeed, many studies detect only subtle effects of experimental low flows on riffle assemblages (e.g. Dewson et al. 2003, 2007b) because source biota in nearby refugia are able to replenish riffle habitat assemblages. Under low-flow conditions, differences in abundance and assemblage composition of macroinvertebrates between pool and riffle habitats also become more subtle as flowing and nonflowing habitats become more homogenous. For example, during low-flow periods, macroinvertebrate assemblages were more variable when compared between reaches than between riffle and pool habitats, whereas during higher flows, habitat differences were greater than reach-scale differences (Lind et al. 2006). In contrast, experimental manipulations of stream fishes mimicking the effects of droughts reveal that chance alone has a substantial role in determining the overall trajectory of fish assemblage structure in time (Matthews & Marsh-Matthews 2006) and helps explain spatial variation in natural stream communities’ responses to drought. As habitat contracts and fish are concentrated in a decreasing volume of habitat space, the chance presence of individual species greatly affects the outcome of the low-flow event (WJ Matthews, personal communication). Large-scale river health NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 23 assessments have shown that during drought, riffle-habitat macroinvertebrate assemblages resemble those of pool and edge habitats due to the conversion of lotic habitats to lentic ones, and that the detection of drought impacts are confined to pool-edge habitats (Rose et al. 2008). This highlights that understanding source-sink population dynamics is critical in the management of low flows (Lake et al. 2007). Comparative studies examining the patterns in biotic assemblages in flowing (e.g. riffle) and slowflowing (pool and run) habitats are also useful for predicting the habitat guilds of biota (e.g. riffledwelling fish and rheophilic invertebrates) that are most susceptible to low flows, and their strategies for dealing with low flows. In a lowland gravel-bed river in New Zealand, changes in the abundances of fast- and slow-flow dwelling fish were consistent with the amount of habitat available. High-flow preference species showed the greatest loss whereas the abundances of low-flow species increased (Jowett et al. 2005). Differences in refuge use among biota also determine spatial and temporal variability in assemblage composition. For example, in New Zealand streams under experimental low flows, Canterbury galaxias (Galaxias vulgaris) preferred to burrow into riffle substrate, whereas upland bullies (Gobiomorphus breviceps) moved into deeper run sections during slow-flow recessions; but under rapid-flow recessions, burrowing and surface stranding of fish increased (Davey et al. 2006). Therefore, the impact of low-flow events is contingent on species-specific strategies of refuge use and the interaction with refuge availability and the rate of change in flow magnitude (Davey et al. 2006). Impacts are also probably contingent on organism size. For example, many species of northern Australian freshwater fishes are dependent on riffle habitats as juveniles, presumably because invertebrate production is high and predation pressure low because shallow water depths preclude access for larger fish and reptilian predators (Pusey et al. 2004). Adjacent pools do not provide a high-quality refuge for such species during periods of low flow. Persistence of low-flow events for periods approaching or exceeding the generational time of such species is therefore likely to have long-term negative consequences for freshwater biodiversity. Two studies have demonstrated the effects of changes in low-flow magnitude and duration on postevent ecosystem production. Experimental surface water extraction in Connecticut streams, United States, reduced fish body size (and therefore ecosystem production) by up to 40 per cent (Walters & Post 2008). Harvey et al. (2006) experimentally reduced dry-season flows in small north-west Californian streams by 75 to 80 per cent for six weeks such that flow diversion decreased flow velocity in riffle-pool transition areas but did not alter habitat volume or temperature. Growth in fish in impacted reaches was 8.5 times slower than fish in control reaches, even though survival was not affected, and invertebrate drift was significantly reduced. Ecological changes associated with the magnitude of low-flow events also occur at the bottom of the foodweb. In the Darling River in New South Wales, Australia, extreme low-flow magnitudes, high nutrient conditions and temperatures all contributed to a major cyanobacterial bloom in 1991 (Bowling & Baker 1996). High algal biomass can cause large diel fluctuations in oxygen concentration, which directly affects oxygen-dependent taxa at higher trophic levels (Matthews 1998). These changes can interact with the duration of low-flow events to determine event severity and therefore the ecological response and recovery of aquatic biota, which may or may not become confounded by trophic cascades (see above). 3.2.4. Consideration 4: Frequency and predictability of low-flow events affect long-term species diversity, life-history strategies, and the timing and extent of recovery from low-flow events Although the frequency, timing or predictability of flow events are ecologically relevant (Colwell 1974; Townsend et al. 1997; Puckridge et al. 1998), there is little information available on specific ecological responses to the components of low-flow events (cf. Konrad et al. 2008; Leigh & Sheldon 2008; Bertrand et al. 2009). One study on the effects of water extraction on microinvertebrate assemblages in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, has shown, however, that less-frequent flooding and increased NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 24 frequency of drying reduces microinvertebrate richness, potentially resulting in adverse repercussions for waterbird and fish breeding (Jenkins & Boulton 2007). More generally, the frequency and timing of low-flow events are considered to affect long-term species diversity, life-history strategies, and the timing and extent of recovery (for biota and ecosystems). In subtropical and tropical regions, stable (predictable) baseflows are important for fish spawning and recruitment during low-flow periods (Bunn & Arthington 2002; Pusey et al. 2004). Conversely, the predictable absence of baseflows during the dry season in rivers within regions with a Mediterranean climate, such as those of south-western Australia (Kennard et al. 2010), present an inimical environment for small fishes such that their reproduction is restricted to the winter wet season (Pusey & Bradshaw 1996). In contrast, high variability and lack of predictability of flow events, of low or high magnitude, is a defining feature of many Australian rivers, both tropical and dryland, to which the native aquatic biota are adapted (Puckridge et al. 1998; Leigh & Sheldon 2008). Fish taxa may respond to this variation in the frequency, timing and duration of low flows by employing brief and/or flexible breeding systems (e.g. ‘bet-hedging’) and life-history characteristics (see Puckridge et al. 1998; Humphries et al. 1999). Most Australian macroinvertebrates are well-adapted to the high levels of flow variability that exist in Australian river systems (e.g. Sheldon & Thoms 2006) (although this may not be the case in regulated systems where natural levels of flow variability have been lost). Consequently, any responses to subtle changes in the frequency and timing of low-flow events may be difficult to detect. However, measures of production (changes in biomass and body condition) may be more sensitive than abundance or assemblage measures to these aspects of the low-flow regime. This suggests that studies of low-flow impact and recovery need to be undertaken and interpreted in the context of general regional hydrology (see Kennard et al. 2010). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 25 4. Informing case study analyses One of the aims of this literature review was to inform a series of case studies analysing relationships between low-flow and ecological responses using available datasets (Marsh et al. 2012). Ideally, a similar analytical approach would have been designed and undertaken for all of these case studies. However, each dataset used was unique and dataset-specific analysis was required. Although the analytical approach actually used could not be prescriptive, all studies: tested the four principles described in this report considered a traits-based approach (as described below) adopted a similar philosophy in describing hydrology; that is, the hydrologic metrics used represented those components of the hydrograph previously described and covered the shortand medium-term hydrologic conditions leading up the biological sampling time, as well as a regime-level metric. Example flow metrics used in the hydro-ecological studies are: short term: mean daily flow for 30 days preceding sample medium term: number of zero flow days in previous 12 months regime: inter-annual variability in the number of cease-to-flow days. 4.1. Datasets available In testing low-flow hypotheses, one ideally requires long datasets of high temporal and spatial frequency that cover a gradient of conditions. The most suitable candidate datasets currently available are those used by state jurisdictions as indicators of river health. Assessment of river ecosystem condition (or ‘health’) in Australia has grown rapidly since the early 1990s, and a number of large-scale river health monitoring programs have been initiated such as the Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Rivers Audit (MDB SRA) and South East Queensland Ecosystem Health and Monitoring Program (EHMP) (Bunn et al. 2010; Davies et al. 2010). These river health monitoring programs are used to detect both the current status of ecosystem health and track changes over time with alterations to disturbances (e.g. climate, human impacts) or assess ecological response to environmental restoration (e.g. riparian restoration). Many of these monitoring programs, as well as smaller-scale ecological experiments, use indicators or metrics designed to reflect changes in ecological condition associated with environmental stress. However, many of these indicators of river health have not been selected to detect effects of low flows and drought. Nonetheless, given that large-scale river health monitoring programs now have extensive datasets, there is the potential that some widely used indicators can be used to detect ecological responses to low flows. The Australian Rivers Assessment System (AUSRIVAS) is an Australia-wide rapid assessment system used to monitor and assess the ecological health of Australian rivers. It operates under the Australian National River Health Program, and uses a standardised and rapid approach to assess river ecosystem health. The AUSRIVAS scheme is based on a reference condition approach, whereby the current condition of a sampling site is compared with the predicted natural undisturbed condition. In Victoria, the utility of AUSRIVAS to detect anthropogenic impacts on benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages has been investigated, and indicates that change in edge-habitat assemblage composition can indicate either an effect of reduced flow or anthropogenic impacts (Rose et al. 2008). In contrast, macroinvertebrates sampled in riffles did not reveal the effects of reduced flows, partly as samples were only taken during sufficient flows (Rose et al. 2008). Use of similar rapid biological assessment techniques for monitoring the effects of flow extraction on macroinvertebrates indicates that such techniques may lack sensitivity to reduced flows or in dryland river ecosystems (Chessman et al. 2010; Chessman et al. 2011). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 26 Stream Invertebrate Grade Number-Average Level (SIGNAL) (Chessman 2003) is a method whereby benthic macroinvertebrate families are assigned a tolerance score, with the average score indicating the site’s condition. SIGNAL was developed primarily to detect river condition in relation to the effect of wastewater and discharge from sewage water treatment plants on river condition in temperate Australia (Growns et al. 1995). It is currently included in the assessment of river health in the MDB SRA, SEQ EHMP and the Victorian Index of Stream Condition, as well as many smaller-scale projects. SIGNAL scores are based on sensitivity to water quality conditions that are influenced by low flows (Chessman 2003), such as temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity. During a long-term drought in Victoria, Australia, SIGNAL scores declined, indicating that river health was affected (Rose et al. 2008). However, SIGNAL scores for many macroinvertebrate families also appear to reflect tolerance for low flows (Boulton & Lake 2008), suggesting that SIGNAL scoring may be used to detect ecological consequences and (potentially) recovery from low flows. However, the valid use of SIGNAL in arid-zone rivers has been questioned (Sheldon 2005) and it may require modification for different flow regimes to include spatial differences in low-flow regimes. Potential modifications include incorporating antecedent hydrology before sampling (Chessman et al. 2010), although selecting the appropriate time period may be challenging because taxa would likely respond to flow based on their life-history and metapopulation dynamics. Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) are three orders of macroinvertebrates that are particularly sensitive to declines in water quality, and are often used in the assessment of river ecosystem condition. The number of families in the EPT orders and the proportion of both individuals and taxa of EPT have been used to assess ecological responses to low flows. For example, the percentage of EPT individuals declined in a pristine river during experimental water extraction over 12 months when compared with upstream control reaches (Dewson et al. 2007a). However, much shorter-term low-flow events (e.g. one to two months) do not typically result in changes to EPT (e.g. McKay & King 2006; Dewson et al. 2007b). Changes in EPT taxa, therefore, appear not to reflect short-term changes in low flows, and are also likely to depend on the long-term environmental conditions. The Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) was developed in the United States and assesses the ecological condition of rivers using fish assemblages (Karr 1981). The IBI includes the number of fish species sampled, the composition of fish according to trophic and meso-habitat guilds, and the proportions of native species and native individuals (e.g. Harris 1995). The IBI has been used to assess the effects of water extraction and dams in the United States. Increasing rate of water withdrawal increased the probability that a site’s IBI score would fall below a threshold indicating poor biological condition as reflected in a low IBI (Freeman & Marcinek 2006). Streams with high rates of water withdrawal are generally characterised by reduced proportions of fluvial species and benthic invertivores (Kanno & Vokourn 2010), most likely reflecting the impact of low flows on habitat and the availability of energy sources. The IBI has had relatively little use in Australia (e.g. Harris & Silveira 1999), yet may have potential for detecting ecological responses to low flows given the inclusion of flow-habitat guilds. The sampling frequency of many large-scale river health monitoring programs typically varies from seasons to years (e.g. SEQ EHMP – six-monthly sampling, MDB SRA – sampling every three years); hence the use of these monitoring programs to detect changes due to low flows may be limited. This is particularly so for early warning indicators where, in some cases, almost continual monitoring over days or weeks is likely to be necessary to detect initial changes in ecosystem structure and function. Large-scale monitoring programs may have the potential to assess ecological responses to low flows, particularly in the use of diagnostic indicators and/or coupled with more frequent monitoring at selected reaches vulnerable to reduced flows. Although current river health monitoring programs (e.g. MDB SRA, EHMP) may not use ecological indicators designed to assess low-flow responses, raw data are often available if such metrics or analytical approaches are developed (e.g. Brooks et al. 2011). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 27 4.2. Preferred method – traits approach Due to spatial differences in the composition of aquatic fauna across Australia, taxonomic-based approaches are limited in their ability to help determine whether the effects of low flows are consistent between hydrologically variable regions (e.g. Kennard et al. 2010; Mackay et al. 2012). An alternative approach is to analyse the effects of low flows using biological characteristics or species traits, where different taxa are predicted to show similarities in their trait responses to environmental disturbance (e.g. McGill et al. 2006). Species traits (biological characteristics) are increasingly being used to predict and analyse the ecological effects of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on aquatic ecosystems (Menezes et al. 2010). The use of biological traits has an advantage over taxonomic groupings (particularly coarse groupings such as family) because taxonomically similar biota often vary considerably in their tolerances and responses to environmental stressors (Downes 2010). The proportion of specific traits occurring within an assemblage reflects the natural environmental drivers (hydrology, habitat availability, water quality and biological interactions) present in a system (Verberk et al. 2008). Mechanistic effects of environmental stressors can be used to improve predictions of the ecological consequences of environmental change (Statzner & Bêche 2010), and biological traits are used to predict the effects of river-flow regimes on patterns in biodiversity and species dynamics (Lytle & Poff 2004). Species traits have also been used to assess ecological consequences or predict the risk and magnitude of future environmental impacts such as climate change (e.g. Chessman 2009; Brooks et al. 2011; Walters 2011). Due to the interest in assessing and predicting the effects of water extraction and hydrological alteration as a consequence of both climate change and human demands, the use of traits-based approaches is increasing because the effects of flow manipulation can be difficult to detect when unimpacted control sites do not exist. For example, species trait analysis was found to be more sensitive than taxonomic-based measures to assess the impacts of water extraction in the United States (Miller et al. 2010). Species traits have been used to describe taxa most susceptible to reduced flows both in Australia (Brooks et al. 2011) and the United States (Walters et al. 2011). Traits have been used to assess the ecological responses to low flows in surface-flowing ecosystems and to identify particular species that are capable of resisting low flows and those with high resilience (Table 3). Conversely, traits can identify particular species that are especially vulnerable to change in low flows. For example, rivers that frequently experience low flows (either due to regular water extraction or their being naturally intermittent) typically favour habitat-generalist species at the expense of rheophilic taxa (e.g. Haxton & Finlay 2008; Rose et al. 2008; Finn et al. 2009; Brooks et al. 2011). Habitat-generalist taxa are generally resistant to low flows, as they are less sensitive than rheophilic taxa to changes in flowing habitats. Many predacious macroinvertebrates with armoured bodies and a high crawling rate (i.e. ability to disperse during rapid low flows) also have high resistance to low flows, particularly to rapid drawdown events (Miller et al. 2010; Walters 2011). In contrast to resistance traits, biological characteristics that allow for rapid recolonisation and recovery from low flows can be used to predict particular biota able to persist in flow regimes with high frequency and long duration of low flow. Short-lived multivoltine (i.e. breed and recruit multiple times during a typical breeding season) species with dormant/resting egg phases are traits conferring high resilience to low flows (Table 3). For example, the Selwyn River, New Zealand, has four distinct hydrological reaches: perennial-losing, ephemeral, intermittent and perennial-gaining. Benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages show distinct patterns according to hydrological conditions (Arscott et al. 2010) – the proportion of short-lived, smaller-bodied multivoltine species with low individual fecundities increased with decreasing flow permanence and flow duration. These traits are consistent across streams in semi-arid climates, such as Spain (Bonada et al. 2007; Díaz et al. 2008), and indicate that longer-lived, larger-bodied univoltine taxa have low resilience to low flows. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 28 Species traits have been shown to be more sensitive than structural indices (e.g. taxonomic grouping) at detecting the effects of low flows (e.g. Miller et al. 2010). However, many species also exhibit trait plasticity, whereby biological characteristics in response to low flows vary in association with other factors. For example, size at sexual maturity of brown trout (Salmo trutta) is linked with mean annual discharge. Individuals become sexually mature at shorter body sizes in streams with lower flows when compared with fish from streams with greater discharges (Jonsson et al. 2001). Knowledge of the biological traits associated with resistance and resilience to low flows is relatively poor, particularly for fish, algae, macrophytes and birds, yet research into macroinvertebrate traits is increasing (e.g. Miller et al. 2010; Walters 2011; Brooks et al. 2011). Some of the traits described above are likely to have consistent responses to low flows across taxonomic groups (e.g. fish and macroinvertebrates). However, research is still needed to determine which taxa can be grouped according to their similar responses to low-flow hydrological stressors. Due to the high variability of traits within taxonomically similar groups (e.g. families, genera), identifying the traits that are a compromise between sensitivity to environmental stressors (low-flow sensitivity in this case) and different taxonomic levels is necessary (Downes 2010). Responses of taxonomically similar biota to flow regime and flow regime change are largely inconsistent globally (Poff & Zimmerman 2010). Therefore, traits-based approaches to assessing the ecological consequences of low flows are likely to improve predictions and identify whether consistent or distinct responses to low flows exist across large geographic regions. Some traits may be strongly correlated with common sensitivity grade measures of ecosystem condition (e.g. SIGNAL, Chessman 2003; Boulton & Lake 2008; Boulton & Lake unpublished data), and these indices may reflect particular biological characteristics that are directly or indirectly associated with low-flow conditions (e.g. water quality; Chessman 2003). But for largescale (e.g. continental) analysis, major impediments to using a traits-based approach include the limited availability of data from large spatial scales, a lack of basic biological and ecological information to group taxa into ecologically similar classes (Pyron et al. 2011) and, in Australia, the lack of an adequate traits database. Table 3: Summary of known biological traits associated with high and low resistance and resilience to low flows. Sources: Bonada et al. 2007; Díaz et al. 2008; Haxton & Finlay 2008; Rose et al. 2008; Finn et al. 2009; Brooks et al. 2011; Walters 2011. Attribute Key biological traits High resistance Rapid crawling rate, armoured bodies, tolerance to high water temperature, pollution-tolerant, preference for lentic habitat, habitat-generalist, predatory High resilience Aerial dispersal, small body size, multivoltine, ovoviviparity, low fecundity, short lifespan Low resistance/resilience Rheophilic, clinging preference, shredder/detritivore, slow seasonal development, poor swimming ability, high fecundity 4.2.1. Macroinvertebrate traits database When undertaking broad comparisons across large areas of Australia, relatively few taxa occur across all regions – making large-scale comparisons difficult. Those taxa that are widespread are generally tolerant of widespread environmental conditions (at least partially explaining their widespread distribution). One possible solution is to increase the number of taxa with biological information available by modifying existing traits databases, such as those developed by Brooks et al. (2011) and Schafer et al. (2011), to apply to low-flow stresses. Schafer et al. (2011) have developed a traits-based database of 171 macroinvertebrate taxa (mostly to family) to inform ecological risk assessment of salinity and pesticides in south-eastern Australia. Based on the synthesis of the ecological consequences of low flows on physical conditions, NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 29 ecosystem processes and aquatic biota, many of the traits identified by Schafer et al. (2011) have potential application for assessing the impacts of low flows (Table 4). Brooks et al. (2011) used biological traits to determine the likelihood of impact from water extraction on macroinvertebrate taxa in rivers of New South Wales, Australia. The information available for 29 biological traits was limited and only available for 32 families (highlighting the deficit of this information for many Australian macroinvertebrate families). In addition, because many macroinvertebrate taxa that occur in New South Wales are not found in other hydrologically distinct regions (e.g. semi-arid, tropical), the ability to use the assessed traits and taxa in other regions of Australia is limited. An attempt was made to develop a database of traits that could be applied across most of Australia by collating traits from Brooks et al. (2011), Schafer et al. (2011) and others. This attempt remains incomplete and the establishment of a national traits database is seen as a priority. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 30 5. Conclusions Periods of low flow are a natural part of every river’s flow regime (Poff et al. 1997) and, similar to floods, they can act as ‘disturbance phenomena’ in resetting ecological processes and maintaining ecological diversity (Lake 2000). Low-flow impact in streams and rivers may occur naturally under the extremes of climatic variability and is often referred to as ‘drought’ (Lake 2011); however, more commonly low-flow impact is caused by anthropogenic influences on rivers and streams. The frequency, magnitude and duration of low flows can be increased through water extraction and flow regulation, resulting in a shift from streams that may be naturally perennial to systems that may hydrologically resemble more ephemeral streams. Such hydrological shifts can result in reduced ecological diversity and changed ecosystem function. Flow regulation through dams and weirs can also decrease the natural frequency, magnitude and duration of low flows through continual water releases, with consequences for the stream or river similar to an increase in low flow. This review has highlighted that although there is a large and rapidly growing research interest into the ecological consequences of low flows, a key issue remains apparent: although it is necessary to understand the impacts of low flows while they occur, it is equally important to identify how ecosystems recover after they occur. Most research has focused on ecological patterns during lowflow and drought events, but monitoring often ceases when higher flow periods return (Boulton & Lake 2008; Lake 2011). From a management perspective, this results in a mismatch between understanding and management information needs. This review has summarised the impacts of low flow on streams and rivers into four guiding principles that can be used to select indicators and construct monitoring programs for assessing the impact of and recovery from low flows; namely, low flows influencing habitat availability (principle 1), habitat quality (principle 2), energy transfers (principle 3) and the connectivity of habitats influencing dispersal (principle 4). The guiding principles in this review have been used to inform the recommendation of a range of indicators that could be used to assess the impact of, and recovery from, low-flow events. However, the assessment of the ecological responses to low flows needs to ensure that the spatial and temporal scales of monitoring are ecologically relevant according to the predicted mechanism of lowflow stress. Streams and rivers across Australia have now been classified based on a range of broad hydrological metrics (Kennard et al. 2010), as well as a suite of low-flow specific metrics (Mackay et al. 2012). This provides a mechanism for the spatial comparison of sites across broad geographic areas. This review suggests that different potential indicators of low-flow impact respond to low flows over different temporal and spatial scales; for example, a macroinvertebrate indicator that reflects the proportion of rheophilic taxa in an assemblage would be more applicable for assessing low-flow impact in perennial streams, where low flows may cause a decrease in the proportion of rheophilic taxa. Such an indicator would be less relevant or useful in a naturally intermittent river where the proportion of rheophilic taxa is either very low naturally, or rheophilic taxa do not naturally occur. In this latter situation indicators more relevant to ephemeral streams would need to be used. Indicators of low-flow stress are likely to be harder to define as the frequency, magnitude and duration of natural low-flow stress increases and the biota are naturally adapted to cope. Addressing low-flow impacts is potentially more straightforward than assessing low-flow recovery, which needs to include concepts of resistance and resilience. For example, if ecosystems display low resistance but high resilience to natural low flows, then this indicates that the resident biota have traits that allow them to persist during low-flow periods (e.g. rapid dispersal to/from refugia) and their recovery from a low-flow impact will be rapid. However, if an ecosystem displays low resilience to lowflow events, then the recovery from a low-flow event may be protracted. Management actions therefore need to be informed by examining post-low-flow events to enable prediction of ecological thresholds to altered low-flow regimes. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 31 Shortened forms ANZECC Australia New Zealand Environment Conservation Council BFI Baseflow index CV coefficient of variation EM Expectation-maximisation EPT Ephemeroptera (mayfly), Plecoptera (stonefly) and Trichoptera (caddisfly) IBI Index of Biotic Integrity MDB SRA Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Rivers Audit NDVI Normalised Difference Vegetation Index NWI National Water Initiative SEQ EHMP South East Queensland Environmental Health Monitoring Program SIGNAL Stream Invertebrate Grade Number-Average Level SPEAR Species at Risk NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 0 Glossary Abundance: frequency of occurrence. A species present in great numbers is abundant. Aerophily: pertaining to air or oxygen. Aerophilic species have a preference for well-oxygenated waters. Alien species: a species that would not have occurred at a location without anthropogenic input. Allochthonous: pertaining to substances, materials or organisms originating outside the stream. Usual context is to refer to the source of carbon or nutrients from terrestrial sources that are washed into the stream. ANZECC guidelines: Australia New Zealand Environment Conservation Council water quality guideline values which are frequently used to assess water quality. Australian drainage divisions: regions of broadly similar hydrology, originally defined by the Australian Water Resources Commission on the basis of climate and topography. Autochthonous: pertaining to substances, materials or organisms originating within the stream. Usual context is to refer to the source of carbon or nutrients as derived from the stream (as opposed to terrestrial inputs – see Allochthonous) Benthic: bottom. Refers to organisms that live on the stream bed (as opposed to those that live in the water column). Baseflow index: the proportion of a stream’s discharge due to baseflow or groundwater. Community diversity: a community is a collection of organisms within a specified area. The number of different taxa represents the diversity of the community. Coefficient of variation: mean divided by the standard deviation of a dataset. A unitless measure of the distribution of a dataset. Decomposition: the process by which organic matter is broken down into simpler forms of matter. Diatom: a major group of algae and one of the most common types of phytoplankton. Disturbance (ecological): a change in environmental condition(s) that produce or cause a response in an aspect (either structural or functional) of an ecosystem (see, for example, Resh et al. 1988; Lake 2000). Drainage division: the major hydrologic drainage areas of Australia are divided into 12 drainage divisions (e.g. Murray-Darling Division, Tasmanian Division). Drought: difficult to define (Humphries & Baldwin 2003) due to significant variability in flow regimes (Kennard et al. 2010). A period of significantly lower water availability (flow) when compared with long-term central (median) or average conditions for a particular geographic region. Ecosystem recovery trajectories: explains the path that an ecosystem takes as it recovers from a disturbance (see Disturbance). Ephemeral: Streams and rivers that discharge water during and immediately after rainfall. These streams do not have significant baseflow, meaning that such streams are generally dry (apart from isolated waterholes) when not flowing. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 1 Ephemeroptera (mayfly), Plecoptera (stonefly) and Trichoptera (caddisfly): these taxa are sensitive to low dissolved oxygen, high salinity and high water temperatures and scores of their collective relative abundance are often used to demonstrate the prevailing stream conditions. Expectation-maximisation: algorithm: an iterative method for estimating the parameters of a statistical model. Family richness: the number of different taxonomic families in a sample. A site of high family richness has many different families of species present. A site of high species richness has many different species, but these may be from only a few families. Macroinvertebrate datasets are frequently only identified to family level. Flow regime: the long-term (tens of years) combination of the magnitude, timing, duration, frequency, and rate of change of streamflow that characterises the hydrology for a stream. Fluvial: pertaining to water (fluvial geomorphology is the study of landforms created by water such as river channels). Fulton’s Condition Factor (K): a commonly used indicator of fish health which is computed as a fish’s body mass divided by the cube of its length. GIS: Geographic Information System. Higher-order consumers: a ‘first order consumer’ is any organism that feeds on a plant. Higherorder consumers feed on first order consumers. Hydraulic conditions/hydraulic habitat: the characteristic habitat features created by water (e.g. velocity, depth, shear stress). Hyporheic zone: the wetted interstitial zone within the sediments below and alongside rivers. This zone often contains invertebrates specialised for a hypogean existence. Impact (pressure): a disturbance (see definition of Disturbance) either natural or anthropogenic that creates a resultant affect. Usually considered in the context of a pressure (such as water extraction) resulting in an effect such as water quality decline. Index of Biotic Integrity: the IBI was initially developed as a multi-metric index reflecting fish health (based on 12 metrics including species richness, composition and abundance). Many alternative region-specific IBI approaches are now used, and the term generally means a multi-metric index. Intermittent: streams and rivers that have seasonally predictable flow that occurs between a few months to multiple years depending on climate conditions. These streams are placed in the middle of a continuum from ephemeral to permanent. Lag effect: a delayed response to an impact or disturbance (see definition of Disturbance and Impact). Low-flow regime: ecologically, the hydrological definition of ‘low flow’ will depend on the spatial extent and temporal aspect of a river’s hydrograph and the varying flow requirements of waterdependent biota and ecological processes (Smakhtin 2001). Low flow (working definition): difficult to define broadly across geographic and climatic regions (Smahktin 2001), hence the likely reason why the term ‘low flow’ is often not defined in the ecohydrological literature, although this lack of a clear definition is generally acknowledged (e.g. Dewson et al. 2007; Larned et al. 2010; Suren & Riis 2010). Frequently ‘low flow’ is defined in hydrologic contexts based on flow exceedence probabilities (e.g. 95 per cent exceedence flow) or NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 2 deviations from baseflow (see, for example, Suren & Riis 2010). For the purpose of this work, we define low flow as the volume (i.e. magnitude) of water that occurs over a given frequency and duration that is responsible for a mechanistic change in the processes and structure of aquatic ecosystems (including surface water, groundwater and estuaries), relative to the average or median discharge for an individual river (or river reach). We emphasise that this implies that definitions of low flow that are ecologically relevant will never be universally applicable given spatial variation in river flow regimes and also the temporal scale at which ‘low flow’ events are quantified (sensu Biggs et al. 2005) Low-flow spell/low-flow event: a continuous period where low-flow conditions continuously prevail. In tropical Australia the low-flow spell typically coincides with the dry season and is a period of continuous drying or decrease in streamflow. Macroinvertebrate indicators: – predators: a functional feeding group that consumes other animals – scrapers: a functional feeding group that feeds by scraping algae from surfaces – collector-gatherers: a functional feeding group that feeds on fine organic matter by brushing it off surfaces or from by burrowing in soft sediments – filter-feeders: a functional feeding group that filter-feeds on fine organic matter. Multi-metric classification: pertaining to a classification or reporting method whereby more than one measurement is combined to give a single score. Normalised Difference Vegetation Index: a satellite-derived vegetation vigour index (2003). NDVI anomaly: this is a measure of the deviation in vegetation vigour from the long-term vegetation vigour. The NDVI Anomaly can be used to compare the relative changes in vegetation vigour between regions (e.g. compare relative drought severity in different locations) that otherwise have different long-term NDVI scores. Num. zero days: number of consecutive days where there is no measured streamflow. National Water Initiative: the Intergovernmental Agreement on a National Water Initiative was signed at the 25 June 2004 Council of Australian Governments meeting. The Tasmanian Government joined the Agreement in June 2005 and the Western Australian Government joined in April 2006. The NWI represents a shared commitment by governments to increase the efficiency of Australia's water use, leading to greater certainty for investment and productivity, for rural and urban communities, and for the environment (http://www.nwc.gov.au/reform/nwi). Nutrient cycling: movement and exchange of organic and inorganic matter back into the production of living matter, and through this process the transformation of nutrients to different compound forms which are more or less bioavailable (e.g. ammonium, nitrites, nitrates, nitrogen). Perennial: streams and rivers that consistently discharge water sourced from runoff and groundwater in all but extreme drought periods where groundwater availability is so low that connection to the main channel of the stream is lost. Population metrics: the combined range of measures used to describe the dynamics of a population, such as fecundity and survivorship. P90: 90th percentile flow. This is the flow value, below which 90 per cent of flow values fall (i.e. a high flow-value). The 90th percentile exceedence is the flow which is exceeded by 90 per cent of flow NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 3 values (i.e. a low flow). 90th percentile = 10th percentile exceedence; 10th percentile = 90th percentile exceedence. Recruitment: a reproductive opportunity that results in the production of juveniles. A fish may lay eggs that hatch (i.e. reproduce), but this is not considered recruitment until the larvae reach a juvenile stage. Refuges/refugia: habitat remnants that provide refuge for species during periods of environmental stress. In the context of these reports, refuges are pools where animals retreat during extended dry periods. Resistance: the capacity to tolerate or withstand a disturbance. That is, to show little or no change in response to a disturbance (see Lake 2000). Resilience: the ability to recover from a disturbance (see Disturbance definition and Lake 2000). Response (ecological): the ecological effect of a disturbance (see Disturbance definition and Lake 2000). Response can be measured using a range of different indicators (e.g. species richness, decomposition etc.). Rheophilic: having a preference for running water; for example, filter-feeding macroinvertebrates have a preference for flowing waters. Sensitive taxa: taxa sensitive to periods of stress (in this case from low flow). Short-term flow conditions: those prevailing during the 90 days before sampling). Stream Invertebrate Grade Number – Average Level: an indication of water quality based on the presence and abundance of different macroinvertebrates. Streams with high SIGNAL scores are likely to have low levels of salinity, turbidity, and nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus and are likely to be high in dissolved oxygen. SPEAR (Species at Risk): a response indicator used to measure impact of a stressor (in this case low flow). Specific mean annual min: the mean of the minimum flow values for each year of the record. Temporary: often used interchangeably between ephemeral and intermittent flow regimes (see Larned et al. 2010). Thermophily: being able to tolerate a large temperature range. This particularly applies to macroinvertebrates that can tolerate higher temperatures that occur in shallow pools. Tolerant taxa: taxa able to withstand periods of stress (in this case from low flow). Traits: characteristics or properties of an organism. Rheophily (preference for flowing water) is an example of a trait. Trophic relationships: also called feeding relationships. Can be presented as a foodweb or a food chain representing links between different trophic levels (producers, consumers, decomposers). Water quality: the chemical and physical characteristics of the water. 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Bond N, Thomson J & Reich P 2012, Macroinvertebrate responses to antecedent flow, long-term flow regime characteristics and landscape context in Victorian rivers, National Water Commission, Canberra. Chessman B, Haeusler T & Brooks A 2012, Macroinvertebrate responses to low-flow conditions in New South Wales rivers, National Water Commission, Canberra. Deane D 2012, Macroinvertebrate and fish responses to low flows in South Australian rivers, National Water Commission, Canberra. Dostine PL & Humphrey CL 2012, Macroinvertebrate responses to reduced baseflow in a stream in the monsoonal tropics of northern Australia, National Water Commission, Canberra. Hardie, SA, Bobbi, CJ & Barmuta, LA 2012, Macroinvertebrate and water quality responses to low flows in Tasmanian rivers, National Water Commission, Canberra. Kitsios A, Galvin L, Leigh C & Storer T 2012, Fish and invertebrate responses to dry season and antecedent flow in south-west Western Australian streams, National Water Commission, Canberra. Leigh, C 2012, Macroinvertebrate responses to dry season and antecedent flow in highly seasonal streams and rivers of the wet-dry tropics, Northern Territory, National Water Commission, Canberra. Mackay S, Marsh N, Sheldon F & Kennard M 2012, Low-flow hydrological classification of Australia, National Water Commission, Canberra. Marsh N, Sheldon F & Rolls R 2012, Synthesis of case studies quantifying ecological responses to low flows, National Water Commission, Canberra. Marsh N, Sheldon F, Wettin P, Taylor C & Barma D 2012, Guidance on ecological responses and hydrological modelling for low-flow water planning, National Water Commission, Canberra. Rolls R, Marsh N & Sheldon F 2012, Review of literature quantifying ecological responses to low flows, National Water Commission, Canberra. Rolls R, Sheldon F & Marsh N 2012, Macroinvertebrate responses to prolonged low flow in subtropical Australia, National Water Commission, Canberra. Sheldon F, Marsh N & Rolls R 2012, Early warning, compliance and diagnostic monitoring of ecological responses to low flows, National Water Commission, Canberra. Smythe-McGuiness Y. Lobegeiger J, Marshall J, Prasad R, Steward A, Negus P, McGregor G & Choy S 2012, Macroinvertebrate responses to altered low-flow hydrology in Queensland rivers, National Water Commission, Canberra. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 14