EC 145E Environmental Economics UCLA Dr. Bresnock Lecture 1 Economics – is a social science concerned with the efficient use of limited, or scarce, resources to achieve maximum satisfaction of human material wants. It is concerned with decision making by institutions that include consumers, firms, government agencies, and non-profit organizations such as environmental groups. Environmental Economics -- is the application of the principles of economics to the study of how environmental resources are developed and managed. Decision making includes analysis of the environmental consequences of alternative courses of action so that environmental quality goals are met along with other societal goals. Focus is air, water, hazardous and toxic waste management issues. Resource Economics – is the application of the principles of economics to the study of extraction and utilization of natural resources. Focus is on mineral, forest, marine, land, energy, water, agricultural, and biodiversity management issues. Figure 1 Circular Flow with Environmental and Resource Dimensions Expenditures Outputs Firms Households Inputs Incomes Extraction Residuals Environmental Endowment Environmental Economics Lecture 1 Dr. Bresnock Note: The environmental is viewed as a composite asset, or endowment, that provides a steam of services to the economy, i.e. life support, air, water, energy, wildlife, forests, fisheries, biodiversity, minerals, etc. Figure 1 illustrates that the Earth is a closed system to which the laws of thermodynamics apply: (1) 1st Law of Thermodynamics – “Neither energy nor matter can be created or destroyed”. This law captures what environmental and resource economics refer to as the “materials balance” perspective. That is: Mass of Material Inputs = Mass of Material Outputs + Mass of Waste, or Residuals If Mass of Waste > “Assimilative Capacity” or or “Carrying Capacity” of Environment Pollution Damages Note: Some portion of the waste, or residuals, will be recycled prior to discharge into environment. The “assimilative capacity”, or “carrying capacity” of the environment refers to natural processes that dilute, remove, or otherwise reduce the amount of discharged residuals. Not all waste, or residuals, becomes pollution, but all pollution is waste, or residuals. Pollution occurs when a substance, form of energy, or action degrades the quality of the “ambient”, or surrounding, environment. Damages are the negative impacts resulting from pollution. The essence of the 1st Law of Thermodynamics is captured in the equations below. In the long run: M = Rpd + Rcd where M = Mass of Material Inputs Rpd = Residuals Discharged by Producers Rcd = Residuals Discharged by Consumers M = G + Rp - Rpr - Rcr where G = Mass of Material Outputs Rp = Residuals from Production Rpr = Residuals Recycled by Producers Rcr = Residuals Recycled by Consumers (Note: G = Rc -- everything that flows into the consumption sector as a good eventually ends up as a residual from that sector.) 2 Environmental Economics Lecture 1 Figure 2 Dr. Bresnock Circular Flow Revisited Recycled (Rpr) Residuals (Rp) Raw Materials (M) Discharges (Rpd) Producers Goods (G) Consumers Residuals (Rc) Discharges (Rcd) Recycled (Rcr) Natural Environment Thus, to ↓ Residuals in the Long Run: (1) (2) (3) (2) ↓ G -- reduce output; ZPG, but may use more of the environment/person; impacts may be cumulative; ↓ Rp + Rc -- via ↓ residuals intensity – source reduction , or pollution prevention , shift output composition toward less residuals – sectoral shift; ↑ Rpr + ↑ Rcr -- reduce usage of virgin materials 2nd Law of Thermodynamics -- aka the “entropy law” where “entropy” is the amount of energy that is not available for work. This law states that entropy increases over time. The implication of this law is that no energy conversion is completely efficient. In addition, if the VERY long run, a closed system will run out of energy. The Earth becomes an “open system” via interaction with the solar system, i.e. solar energy. This “openness” enables the growth processes of the planet to be extended, but still limited, to the availability of solar energy usage. 3 Environmental Economics Lecture 1 Dr. Bresnock The creation of waste, or residuals, is an inevitable consequence of consumption and production activities. Given the fundamental laws of thermodynamics, the generation of waste leads to 3 fundamental questions that are addressed in environmental economics: (1) (2) (3) (1) What is environmental degradation and why do we have it? What level of environmental quality should we strive for? How do we design institutions to improve and/or protect environmental quality? Environmental degradation results from: (a) Immoral or unethical behavior (b) Profit motive – but consumers, government agencies, and non-profit organizations also pollute; also communist systems (c) Lack of information Note: The role of “incentives” to address these three causes of environmental degradation is an important element in designing appropriate environmental policies. Such designs would attract, repel, or lead people to modify their behavior in some way that would reduce environmental degradation. Policies that create “perverse incentives” should be avoided. (2) Determining the “optimal, or efficient” level of pollution” depends on the type of pollution, location of pollution and those affected by it, the “assimilative capacity” of the environment, and many other factors. Chapters 4 and 5 examine static optimality – when emissions in occur in one time period and are independent of those in other time periods. Chapters 6 – 8 explain dynamic optimality – when emissions occur over time. (3) The design of institutions and policies to improve and/or protect the environment are taken up in Chapters 9 – 13. The key criteria used by economists to evaluate these policies are: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Efficiency – maximizing the net benefits to society (total social benefits minus total social costs) from the environmental policy. Cost-Effectiveness – reaching an environmental objective at least cost, or producing the maximum environmental improvement possible for the resources used. Fairness – aka “equity” concerns how the benefits and costs of environmental improvements ought to be distributed among members of society. Moral judgments involved. Incentives for Innovation – how strong are the incentives for individuals and groups to find new, innovative ways of reducing their impacts on the environment. Enforceability – policies that minimize the time and resources to achieve compliance are preferred in general. 4 Environmental Economics Lecture 1 Dr. Bresnock (1) – (3) primarily involve microeconomic analysis – decision making by individuals, firms, and other small groups. Macroeconomic analysis looks at broader issues, and in the context of environmental analysis, key areas of concern are the: (1) (2) Relationship between environmental regulations and the rate of unemployment and economic growth, Impacts of economic growth on environmental quality Studies of these macroeconomic issues have led to very different predictions regarding future economic growth and environmental well-being. Pessimists and optimists offer alternative visions of the environmental and resources future. Pessimist Model – studies such as Limits to Growth (1972) and Beyond the Limits (1992) developed by Jay Forester (MIT) rely on system dynamics. These studies included: (1) Use of a large scale computer simulation predicts future outcomes based on underlying relationships of economic and environmental behavior. (2) Use of “feedback” loops to capture behavioral relationships. Some feedbacks were “positive”, or self-reinforcing – a secondary effect reinforces the trend; while others were “negative”, or “self-limiting” – a secondary effect goes opposite to the first effect. Examples: Positive Feedback – ↑ Income → ↑ Investment Expenditure → ↑ Capital Equipment → ↑ Output → ↑ Income. Another example would be: ↑ Shortage → ↑ Hoarding, or Stockpiling → ↑ Shortage. Negative Feedback -↑ Population → ↑ Industrial Growth → ↑ Pollution → ↑ Mortality Rates → ↓ Population. Best know planetary example of a negative feedback is the Gaia hypothesis – this view suggest that deviations from the natural order trigger natural, nonhuman response mechanisms that restore balance – the planetary environment within limits is therefore self-regulating. (3) Exponential population growth couple with fixed resources. Population Growth Time (3) No technological change. 5 Environmental Economics Lecture 1 Dr. Bresnock Main Conclusions of Pessimist Models (1) Within 100 years, assuming no major changes to physical, economic, and social relationships, society will run out of nonrenewable resources → overshoot and collapse of the system. Piecemeal approaches to solving individual problems will not be successful. i.e. doubling resources → ↑ industry output → ↑ pollution Immediate limits on population and population growth are needed to prevent overshoot and collapse of the system (2) (3) Optimist Model -- studies such as The Ultimate Resource by Julian L. Simon (1981) and The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World by Bjorn Lomberg (2001). Simon observed that: Land used for agriculture is still increasing → food production not limited. Natural resources have not been scarcer over time – more a problem of economics than physical availability. Pollution levels have ↓ as population and income have ↑. Population more likely to be an S-shaped logistic curve – rapid growth for developing countries, and approaching ZPG, or replacement rates, for developed countries. (1) (2) (3) Population Growth Time Main Conclusions of Optimist Models (1) (2) (3) Physical resources will not limit production. Scarcities will trigger price increases which will stimulate resource discovery and innovation. Expects trend in pollution decline to continue as ability to pay for cleanup increases with income. Increases in conventional food and energy demands will be met by unconventional means, i.e. biotechnology, solar energy, wind power. 6 Environmental Economics Lecture 1 Dr. Bresnock Comparison of the Pessimist and Optimist Viewpoints The production possibility curve (PPC) can be used to illustrate the differences between the pessimist and optimist viewpoints of the resource and environmental future. Figure 3 Market Goods versus Environmental Quality Market Goods Environmental Quality In Figure 3, PPC1 indicates that there may be a tradeoff between producing more market goods and lowering environmental quality in the short run. In the long run, the production possibility curve may shift out due to technological change, new resource discoveries, innovations in production processes, etc., or shift in due to degradation of the existing resource base. Important Term Distinctions (1) Ambient Quality versus Environmental Quality -- “Ambient quality” refers to the quality of the immediately surrounding environment whereas “environmental quality” means a more genera, far-reaching state of the environment. (2) Residuals versus Emissions – “Residuals”, or “waste”, refers to what is “left over” from production and consumption, some of these are recycled back into the production process. “Emissions” are residuals placed into the environment. (3) Pollutant versus Effluent versus Emission – “Pollutant” is a more general term that means any substance placed in the environment that degrades the ambient quality. “Effluent” typically refers to a liquid pollutant, or pollutant emitted into a water resource. “Emission” usually refers to a pollutant that enters the air resources, but it may also be used generally to be any pollutant. 7 Environmental Economics Lecture 1 Dr. Bresnock (4) Damages versus Pollution -- “Damages” are negative impacts from pollution that are typically measured in $, but may also be represented as just quantities. “Pollution” is the result of emissions that exceed the “assimilative capacity”, or “carrying capacity” of the environment. (5) Polluter versus Pollutee -- “Polluters”, aka “sources”, create the emissions that become pollution. “Pollutees, aka “receptors”, receive the emissions created by the polluters. Consumers, firms, government entities, and non-profit organizations can be either or both polluters and pollutees. (6) Environmental Medium -- broad dimensions of the natural world that constitute the environment, i.e. air, water, and land. (Insert Figure 4 Emissions, Ambient Quality, and Damages here) Types of Pollutants (1) Uniformly Mixed Pollutants versus Non-Uniformly Mixed Pollutants – For “uniformly mixed pollutants” the damage caused does not depend on the location of the sources; damages depend only on the amount, or weight, of the emissions. Ex. CFCs, ozone depletion, CO2, global climate change. “Non-uniformly mixed pollutants” lead to damages that depend on location and the amount of damages released. Sources may cause different amounts of damage at different geographical locations. Ex. paper mills, chemical plants, industrial plants. (2) Cumulative versus Noncumulative Pollutants -- “Cumulative pollutants” build up in the environment. Ex. radioactive waste, lead, DDT, plastics. “Noncumulative pollutants tend to disperse, degrade, or dilute rather quickly. Ex. noise, nitrogen and sulfur oxides, particulate matter, CO. (3) Local versus Regional versus Global Pollutants -- “Local” pollutants cause damage to a confined area – they do not “travel” across political or geographical boundaries. Ex. auto emissions, noise, cigarette smoke. “Regional” pollutants cause damages that cross local and state boundaries. Ex. SO2, acid rain, oil spills. “Global” pollutants cause damages that cross international boundaries. Ex. CFCs, ozone depletion, global climate change, CO2. (4) Point versus Non-Point Source Pollutants -- “Point sources” are easy to identify where a pollutant is released and the emissions leaving the point of discharge are easy to ascertain. Ex. smokestack emissions, outfalls from municipal and industrial sources. “Non-point sources” have emission release points that are hard to identify. Ex. pesticides, fertilizer chemicals, urban runoff, mobile source emissions. 8 Environmental Economics Lecture 1 Dr. Bresnock Continuous versus Episodic Emissions – “Continuous emissions” occur on a regular basis. Ex. emissions from power plants, automobiles, household wastes. “Episodic Emissions” occur infrequently, and often by accident. Ex. oil or chemical spills, industrial fires. (5) Damages Not Related to Emissions (1) (2) (3) Land Conversions – destroy environmental value of land. Ex. habitat or species losses, destruction of wetlands, view impairment Strip Mining – destroys ecosystem values, contaminates water supply. Clear cutting – destroys ecosystem values, species losses, flooding leading to lost topsoil 9