Mpumalanga Province
State of the Environment Report 2008
Atmosphere and Climate Specialist Report
Prepared by:
Dr. Thulie N. Mdluli
Strategic Environmental Focus (Pty) Ltd
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Air pollution is the contamination of the atmosphere with harmful substances as a
consequence of human activities. Air pollution is a concern not only in Mpumalanga
but, in many parts of South Africa because it has a direct effect upon the economy
and the well-being of society. Polluted air can pose severe risks to human health and
can also impact negatively on the natural environment. Climate change, on the other
hand, is the alteration of the earth’s natural climatic balance that can be induced by
human activities. Trace gases and aerosols from air pollution are common causes for
climate change as a consequence of their effect on the radiative balance of the earth.
Trace gases such as greenhouse gases, for instance, absorb and emit infrared
radiation which raises the temperature of the earth’s surface causing the enhanced
greenhouse effect.
The Mpumalanga Province suffers extremely poor air quality due to the activities
occurring in the Province, which include inter alia, electricity generation from coalfired power stations, petrochemical plants, and other small additional industrial
operations. Domestic energy use is also a significant source, as some households
rely on solid fuels like wood and coal as primary energy sources. The industrial and
urban activities occurring in the Province release large amounts of pollutants into the
atmosphere. The dispersion of pollutants is however, unfavourable in the Province,
therefore, high pollution levels occur.
This is as a result of Mpumalanga’s high
atmospheric stability, clear skies and low wind speeds associated with high pressure
systems and circulation which is generally anticyclonic throughout the year. The
Province forms a larger part of the “Highveld Priority Area” that has been declared by
the Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Marthinus van Schalkwyk in 2007
(DEAT, 2007).
In light of that, reasonable air quality monitoring occurs within the Province although
most of it is being conducted by the private sector, for example, Eskom. Only four
monitoring stations are currently operated by the national (Department of
Environmental Affairs and Tourism)(Nyalunga, pers comm. (2008)). Initiatives with
regard to air pollution also include the operations of the Provincial Air Quality
Committee and the Environmental Forum within the Mpumalanga Province. Although
air quality guidelines for the Province are not available at this stage, national
guidelines as provided for in the National Environmental Management: Air Quality
Act, 2004 (Act No. 39 of 2004) are used.
ii
Key indicators discussed in the report are electricity generation from coal-fired power
stations, trends in household energy use per energy type, ambient sulphur dioxide
concentration, relative particulate concentration, carbon dioxide emissions, ozone
and nitrogen oxides concentrations as well as temperature and rainfall patterns.
The amounts of coal burnt in electricity power stations has increased steadily over
the years from 2003 to 2008, with a sharp increase in 2005. However, figures for
2008 going forward are expected to be higher due to the increased electricity
demand in the country. Trends in household energy use have not changed
substantially since 2003. This may be because data obtained from Statistics South
Africa was collected during the 2003 national census. However, information obtained
from the General Household Survey of 2007 indicates that the number of households
that are connected to the electricity supply increased from 77% in 2002 to 81.5% in
2007 in the Province. This indicates an increase in electricity usage which would in
turn reduces reliance on other “dirty” fuels like coal and wood. It is noted though that
shifts in fuel use are more complicated than can be triggered by the available of an
alternative fuel. Ambient sulphur dioxide (SO2) concentrations indicate steady
increases from 2003 to 2006. During 2007 and 2008, SO2 levels measured in Eskom
monitoring stations dropped considerably; this may be due to improved efficiency in
power generation plants as it is not due to reduced coal usage. This may as well
show an improvement in ambient air quality of the region, however, a more holistic
representation of monitoring sites would provide a clearer indication.
Carbon dioxide levels reported by Eskom show steady increases over the years
(2003-2008) save for 2005, which shows a much higher figure. Comprehensive CO2
monitoring data would provide a clearer picture but they were not available at the
time of compiling this report. CO2, is an important contributor for climate change, as
worldwide studies have linked increased global CO2 levels to a global increase in
temperature (IPCC, 2008). The indicator, relative particulate levels shows a steady
reduction in concentrations from 2003 to 2007, with a slight increase in 2007. This
means that the contribution of particulates from power generation to climate change
was reducing over the years. The re-commissioning of previously de-commissioned
power stations may, however, reduce this trend. Other important factors in this
regard, such as biomass burning from farming operations and runaway fires have not
been taken into account when analysing this indicator due to the unavailability of
data. Ozone (O3) emissions, on the other hand, are much higher than NOx emissions
iii
measured at an Eskom monitoring station. This is partly due to the photochemical
reaction that causes elevated levels of O3 in the atmosphere. O3, is also an important
contributor to climate change as worldwide studies have linked global O3 levels to a
global increase in temperature (IPCC, 2008). Finally, annual temperature measured
in Mpumalanga over the period 1965-2008 show very little disparities. The year 1982
proved to have been the warmest and 1982, 1990 and 1994 had minimum
temperatures above 100C, indicating warmer years. This indicator shows no issues of
major concern with regard to temperature changes in the Mpumalanga Province.
In conclusion, air pollution indicators observed emphasise the need to monitor air
quality more strategically in the Province. A provincial air quality management plan, is
required to track ‘hot-spots’ and design adaptive strategies that are aimed at
reducing the amounts of pollution released from the activities in the Province.
Further, enforcement of legislation and guidelines needs to be monitored in order to
ensure compliance to national legislation. Where compliance cannot be achieved in
the short-term, measurable plans to achieve it must be put in place. Despite climate
change being a global issue, not much can be done to mitigate against climate
change at local level; significant contributions can be made e.g. reducing air
pollution. Furthermore, if climate change parameters are monitored closely they can
be used to design adaptive mitigation strategies to ensure the well-being of the
environment.
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary………………………………………………………………………….ii
1 INTRODUCTION TO ATMOSPHERE AND CLIMATE ....................................... 2
1.1
Air Pollution................................................................................................ 2
1.1.1 Air Pollution Transport ....................................................................... 4
1.1.2 Regional scale transport over southern Africa ...................................... 5
1.2
Climate Change ......................................................................................... 6
1.3
Air Quality Monitoring in the Mpumalanga Province ................................... 7
1.4
Key Indicators ............................................................................................ 8
1.4.1 Electricity generation from coal-fired power stations ............................ 9
1.4.2 Trends in household energy use per energy type ............................... 10
1.4.3 Ambient sulphur dioxide concentration ............................................. 12
1.4.4 Relative particulate emissions .......................................................... 13
1.4.5 Carbon dioxide emissions ................................................................ 14
1.4.6 Ozone and NOx concentrations ........................................................ 15
1.4.7 Temperature and Rainfall Patterns ................................................... 16
2 AIR QUALITY and climate change IN mPUMALANGA ..................................... 17
3 Responses ....................................................................................................... 18
3.1
Ambient air quality legislation ................................................................... 18
3.1.1 National Environmental Management Act 39 of 2005 ......................... 18
3.2
Ambient Air Quality Standards and Guidelines......................................... 19
3.2.1 International Policies ....................................................................... 21
3.2.2 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ................. 21
3.2.3 Kyoto Protocol ................................................................................ 22
3.2.4 National Strategies .......................................................................... 23
3.2.5 Local Strategies .............................................................................. 23
4 Summary of atmosphere and climate ............................................................... 24
5 References....................................................................................................... 25
6 Acknowledgements .......................................................................................... 29
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Proposed ambient air quality standards for criteria pollutants. .............. 20
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. The Highveld National Priority Area (Source: DEAT, 2007) ........................ 3
Figure 2. Major circulation types affecting southern Africa and their monthly
frequency of occurrence over the 5-year period 1988 – 1992 (after Tyson, 1986;
Tyson et. al., 1996).................................................................................................... 5
Figure 3. The major air transport pathways out of the Highveld (after Tyson et al.,
1996). ........................................................................................................................ 6
Figure 4. Eskom Air Quality Monitoring Network (Source: Eskom 2008) .................. 8
Figure 5. Amounts of Coal burnt for Electricity generation. (Source: Eskom 2008b). . 9
1
INTRODUCTION TO ATMOSPHERE AND CLIMATE
Air is made up of a mixture of gases. The natural composition of the air is mostly
nitrogen (78.1%) and oxygen (20.9%), Argon (0.9%) along with water droplets, fine
particles, and small amounts of other gases, such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide
and methane (0.1%) (Twomey, 1977). These gases can either be free in the air or
associated with water vapour. Of the trace gases present in the atmosphere, water
vapour is the most important greenhouse gas as it allows incoming solar radiation to
reach the earth’s surface and traps outgoing long-wave, infrared radiation from the
earth. The trapping of this terrestrial radiation makes the troposphere warmer than it
would otherwise have been to be able to sustain life. The atmosphere and climate
are therefore, the result of a balance being reached, taking into account natural
sources of atmospheric emissions. This balance is threatened with the introduction
on substances in the atmosphere that are not naturally occurring or occurring in
higher amounts than naturally exists (Elsom, 1987). This is a global problem, but it is
exacerbated in areas exposed to high levels of industrial emissions and the
Mpumalanga Province is no exception.
1.1 Air Pollution
The background concentrations of naturally occurring gases in the atmosphere can
be significantly enhanced by air pollution. Air pollution is the contamination of the
atmosphere with harmful substances as a consequence of human activities (Elsom,
1987; Bowser, 2004). Air pollution is a concern in Mpumalanga as it is in many parts
of South Africa as it has a direct impact upon the economy and the well-being of
society. Polluted air can pose severe risks to human health – both at a global and
local level (Burnett, 1997; Doppegieter et al., 1998; Metzner; 2003). Although in
broad terms, South Africa’s air quality is not regarded as being an overall problem,
there are many localized areas that suffer extremely poor air quality (DEAT, 2007).
The Mpumalanga Province is one such area where significant air pollution occurs.
The country’s major power stations including three of the biggest power stations in
the southern hemisphere are situated in Mpumalanga (Coleman, 2007) Other
sources of air pollution include inter alia, petrochemical plants, timber and related
industries; metal smelters, brick and stone works; mining (primarily coal mines),
fertilizer and chemical producers, explosives producers, charcoal producers, and
2
other small additional industrial operations. Domestic energy use is also a significant
source, as some households rely on solid fuels like wood and coal as primary energy
sources. The industrial and urban activities in the Highveld have released large
amounts of pollutants into the atmosphere, where dispersion of pollutants is
unfavourable (Tyson et. al., 1988).
In light of that, the Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Marthinus van
Schalkwyk, declared an area to be known as the “the Highveld Priority Area” as a
national air pollution hotspot in terms of Section 18(1) of the National Environmental
Management: Air Quality Act, 2004 (Act No. 39 of 2004) (NEMAQA) (DEAT, 2007).
This area encompasses the eastern part of Gauteng and western part of
Mpumalanga (Figure 1). As can be seen in Figure 1, a larger proportion of the area
falls within the Mpumalanga Province.
Figure 1. The Highveld National Priority Area (Source: DEAT, 2007)
3
1.1.1
Air Pollution Transport
Ambient air quality of any region is controlled by the climate, topography, natural and
anthropogenic activities that occur in and surrounding regions concerned (GPDACE,
1998). Extreme air pollution concentrations in the atmosphere are primarily governed
by meteorological fluctuations and/or change in emission patterns (Gokhale and
Khare, 2007). Air movement and mixing affect pollution levels, and are dependent
upon differences in high and low pressure and the occurrence of temperature
inversions. Topography plays an important role in controlling the level of air pollution
either by providing a drainage pathway to transport pollution from source to areas
down-gradient, or acting as a barrier to pollution movement (Karakezi et al., 2003). It
is important therefore, to report on the climatic factors of a region when studying its
air quality.
The Mpumalanga Highveld is characterised by high atmospheric stability, clear skies
and low wind speeds associated with high pressure systems and circulation is
generally anticyclonic throughout the year (Tyson et al., 1988). Four major circulation
types (Figure 2) which occur at different frequencies throughout the year dominate
over southern Africa (Tyson et al., 1996) affecting the Highveld. Semi-permanent
subtropical anticyclones (continental anticyclones) are most frequent in winter (June
– July) while barotropic quasi-stationary tropical easterly waves occur mostly in
summer (Tyson et al., 1996). Transient mid-latitude ridging anticyclones show a little
annual variation whereas westerly baroclonic disturbances show a maximum in
spring (Tyson et al., 1996).
4
Figure 2. Major circulation types affecting southern Africa and their monthly frequency
of occurrence over the 5-year period 1988 – 1992 (after Tyson, 1986; Tyson et. al.,
1996).
1.1.2
Regional scale transport over southern Africa
The nature of the export of aerosols and trace gases out of the industrial Highveld
region is an essential starting point towards understanding the nature and chemistry
of air transport over southern Africa (Held et al., 1996; Freiman and Piketh, 2002).
Trajectory analyses (Freiman and Piketh, 2002) showed that there are four main
transport pathways into the Highveld. These are from the Atlantic Ocean, subtropical
5
Africa, and Indian Ocean and over southern Africa (Freiman and Piketh, 2002). About
43% of air reaching the Highveld is clean marine air adverted with westerly
disturbances over the southern parts of South Africa (Freiman and Piketh, 2002).
Southern African transport (25%) reaching the Highveld frequently carries previously
polluted air (D’Abreton and Tyson, 1996; Piketh et. al., 1998; Freiman and Piketh,
2002).
Air masses, trace gases and aerosols from the Highveld of South Africa are either
directly transported or recirculated on various scales over the subcontinent (Tyson et
al., 1997; Tyson and D’Abreton, 1998). Air is directly adverted in westerly, easterly,
northerly and southerly transport modes and also recirculated towards its point of
origin (Figure 3) (Freiman and Piketh, 2002). Up to 41% of all transport from the
Highveld affects neighbouring countries (Gatebe et al., 1999; Freiman and Piketh,
2002). Transport to Mozambique occurs on about one third of the time (Piketh,
2000). Botswana is affected by one out of three trajectories exiting the Highveld while
Swaziland is affected by one out of four trajectories (Piketh, 2000).
Figure 3. The major air transport pathways out of the Highveld (after Tyson et al., 1996).
1.2 Climate Change
Trace gases play an important role in the thermodynamics of the atmosphere by
virtue of their properties as greenhouse gases (GHGs) by absorbing outgoing longwave, infrared radiation from the earth and atmosphere to produce the greenhouse
effect (Tyson and Preston-Whyte, 2000). Oxygen (O2), ozone (O3), moisture (H2O)
and carbon dioxide (CO2) are the most significant absorbing gases in the atmosphere
6
(Seinfeld and Pandis, 1998). Other pollutants such as aerosols, oxides of nitrogen
(NOx), also have an impact on climate change directly and indirectly. Aerosols, for
example, cause visibility impairment by light extinction and scattering that
consequently affects the amount of sunlight that reaches the earth’s surface (Kim
et al., 2003; Olszyna et al., 2005). High concentrations of aerosols can also damage
clothing at a more local scale (Zheng et al., 2004).
The influence of aerosols on climate processes is well documented (Keil and
Haywood, 2003; Charlson et al., 1992; Piketh et al., 1996; Turco et al., 1983; Hobbs
et al., 1997; Babu et al., 2004; Anderson et al., 1996; Twomey, 1977; Li et al., 2003).
for instance, aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and they can alter a number
of cloud radiative factors and the equilibrium of cloud liquid-water content (Anderson
et al., 1996). Biomass-burning aerosols can act as effective cloud condensation
nuclei and change cloud albedo through altering their microphysics (Reid et al.,
1999). Cloud albedo is increased through the increase in the number of cloud
droplets and the decrease in the radius of each droplet (Keil and Haywood, 2003).
Consequently, the precipitation efficiency is reduced, allowing for longer cloud
lifetimes and an increase in the amount of time required for precipitation to form,
particularly in warm clouds (Reid et al., 1999).
1.3 Air Quality Monitoring in the Mpumalanga Province
According to Zunckel et al., (2003) there were 15 air quality monitoring stations in the
Mpumalanga Province in 2003. Currently, 10 air quality monitoring stations in
Mpumalanga belong to Eskom and they conduct both continuous and passive
monitoring (Figure 4).
7
Figure 4. Eskom Air Quality Monitoring Network (Source: Eskom 2008)
Parameters measured in the Eskom monitoring network include SOx, PM, O 3, NOx
and meteorology. According to the Zunckel et al., report, other agencies conducting
air monitoring in Mpumalanga include Anglo Coal, Mondi Packaging, Sasol Synfuels,
Air Pollution Liaison Committee (APOLCOM), Annegarn Environmental Research
(AER) and C&M Consulting Engineers. APOLCOM, however, has ceased air quality
monitoring in the Province (Nyalunga, 2008).
1.4
Key Indicators
Air quality and climate in Mpumalanga can be measured through the following
indicators:

Electricity generation from coal-fired power stations;

Trends in household energy use per energy type;

Ambient sulphur dioxide concentration;

Relative particulate concentration;
8

Carbon dioxide emissions;

Ozone and NOx concentrations; and

Temperature and rainfall patterns.
1.4.1
Electricity generation from coal-fired power stations
This is a pressure indicator tracking electricity generation from coal-fired power
stations. It has been difficult however, to obtain data for actual power generation so
coal consumption over a five year period (2003 -2008) has been used as a proxy
Coal Burnt in Power Stations (Mt)
indicator to depict trends in electricity generation as indicated in Figure 5 below.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Figure 5. Amounts of Coal burnt for Electricity generation. (Source: Eskom 2008b).
This graph shows an increase in coal consumption for electricity generation between
the years 2003 and 2005. Although the amount of coal burnt dropped significantly in
2006, it is still higher than that burnt in 2003. A steady increase is observed between
2007 and 2008. It is estimated, however, that more coal was burnt in 2008 than the
value depicted in the figure above as previously decommissioned power stations
have been brought in line to supply power to the national power grid. Eskom has
already re-commissioned three power station at Camden, Komati and Grootvlei
(Coleman, 2007). This is a result of the growth in the South African economy which
has fuelled greater demand for electricity, thereby resulting is a rise in electricity that
is produced and available for distribution in South Africa.
Notably, 77% of electricity generated in South Africa is generated within the
Mpumalanga Province (Mpumalanga SoER, 2003) hence national trends in power
9
generation almost depict what is happening in the Province.
The environmental
impact from these existing power stations is predicted to increase as their electricity
production increases to meet growing demand in the country.
This increase in
electricity will need to be sustained over the coming years and plans to build new
power stations using clean technologies are under way (DEDP, 2007)
1.4.2
Trends in household energy use per energy type
Information on trends in household energy use in Mpumalanga Province provides
insight into domestic reliance on fossil fuels and the potential impact on air quality
both indoors and outdoors. Figures 6-8 show household energy-use trends. The
most recent data available has been obtained from Statistics South Africa and they
were collected during the 2003 national census.
Figure 6 shows the types of fuels used for cooking in the different district
municipalities within the Mpumalanga province.Gert Sibande District Municipality is
the only one that uses cow dung and solar is used in all the municipalities except for
Nkangala district Municipality. The use of all other energy sources is distributed fairly
among the district municipalities.
100%
Percentage Households
90%
80%
70%
Gert Sibande
District Municipality
60%
Ehlanzeni District
Municipality
50%
Nkangala District
Municipality
40%
Greater Sekhukhune
District Municipality
30%
20%
10%
er
O
th
la
r
So
ng
du
oa
l
C
im
al
An
d
W
oo
ra
ffi
n
G
as
Pa
El
ec
tri
ci
ty
0%
Figure 6: Energy use for Cooking (Source: Statistics South Africa, 2003-2008)
10
Figure 7 presents energy-use fuels for space heating. Ehlanzeni District Municipality
uses the least amount of coal and Gert Sibande District Municipality uses the highest
amount of cow dung. Nkangala District Municipality utilises the least amount of wood
and all other fuels are utilised in fairly similar amounts between the municipalities.
100%
Percentage of Households
90%
Gert Sibande District
80%
70%
Ehlanzeni District
Municipalty
60%
Nkangala District
Municipality
50%
40%
Greater Sekhukhune
District Municipality
30%
20%
10%
er
O
th
la
r
So
ng
du
oa
l
C
im
al
An
d
W
oo
ra
ffi
n
G
as
Pa
El
ec
tri
ci
ty
0%
Figure 7: Energy Use for Heating (Source: Statistics South Africa, 2003-2008)
Figure 8 provides an indication of fuels used for lighting. Fuel-use is distributed fairly
amongst district municipalities except for solar, which is mostly used in the Ehlanzeni
District Municipality and to a lesser extent in the other municipalities. This shows a
growing trend in terms of solar energy use in the Province, which has positive
impacts in terms of environmental protection against pollution as solar is clean
energy.
11
Percentage of Households
100%
Gert Sibande District
Municipality
80%
Ehlanzeni District
Municipality
60%
Nkangala District
Municipality
40%
Greater Sekhukhune
District Municipality
20%
er
O
th
la
r
So
s
le
an
d
C
G
as
ra
ffi
n
Pa
El
ec
tri
ci
ty
0%
Figure 8: Energy Use for Lighting (Source: Statistics South Africa, 2003-2008)
Trends in household energy use have not changed much since 2003. This may be
because data obtained from Statistics South Africa was collected during the 2003
national census. Information obtained from the General Household Survey of 2007
(GHS, 2008) was not broken down in terms of municipalities within provinces, only
provincial summaries were given which is inadequate for detailed analysis. The
number of households that are connected to the electricity supply nationally
increased from 76.1% in 2002 to 81.5% in 2007. In the Mpumalanga province, 77%
were connected to the electricity supply and 81.5% were connected in 2007, which
shows an increase (by 4.5%) (GHS, 2008). This indicates an increase in electricity
usage which would in turn reduce reliance on other fuels like coal; however, studies
(Hoets, 1994; 1998; Mdluli, 2007) have proven over time that switching fuel-use is a
more complicated process than can be triggered by the available of an alternative
fuel.
1.4.3
Ambient sulphur dioxide concentration
Ambient sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions give a good indication of air pollution
trends. Sensitive groups for SO2 include children, the elderly and people with heart or
lung disorders such as asthma. When there are peak levels of SO 2 in the air, people
with asthma who are active outdoors may have trouble breathing (USEPA, 2000).
Prolonged exposure to SO2 can cause respiratory illness, wheezing and aggravate
existing heart disease (USEPA, 2005; Longo et al., 2005). Sulphate particles formed
12
from SO2 are also a major cause of reduced visibility. SO2 is an important criteria
pollutant that impact on air quality as well as being the most important constituent of
acid rain (Gabbard, 2000).
Figure 9 below presents ambient SO2 emissions from 2 Eskom monitoring stations Elandsfontein and Leandra as they were the only ones from which SO2 data were
received. All measured annual averages fall above 8ppb, and they all exceed the
national annual standard for SO2 according to the NEMAQA of 2004, which is
0.12ppb.
14
SO2 Emissions (ppb)
12
10
8
Elandsfontein
6
Leandra
4
2
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Figure 9: Ambient sulphur dioxide emissions. (Source: Eskom, 2008)
1.4.4
Relative particulate emissions
Relative particulate pollution trends calculated for power stations have decreased
over the five year period from 2003 to 2008 with 2007 showing the least
concentration as shown in Figure 10 below. The reason for this is improvements in
electricity generation efficiency as it is not due to a reduction in the amounts of coal
burnt. A reduction in particulate pollution is a positive improvement because not only
does particulate pollution cause significant human health impacts, it is also a
significant pollutant that forces climate change both at local and global scale.
13
Relative Particulate Emissions
kg/MWh
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Figure 10: Relative particulate pollution (Source: Eskom 2008b).
1.4.5
Carbon dioxide emissions
At a global scale, the emissions of large volumes of greenhouse gases such as
carbon dioxide have important consequences for climate change and global
warming, which alter ecosystems and patterns of disease occurrence if present in
sufficient amounts (Merrick, 1984; Gouws, 1993; Kirkman, 1998; Tyson and PrestonWhyte, 2000; Gabbard, 2000; Finkelman, 2003). CO2 is the single most contributory
gas to the greenhouse effect, accounting for 55%, while CO accounts for 5% (Gow
and Pidwirny, 1996).
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions indicate changes in the amount of carbon dioxide
released into the atmosphere due to electricity generation. Figure 11 presents carbon
dioxide emissions from Eskom power generation the year 2003 to the year 2008. It is
important to note that these emissions are calculated based on coal characteristics
and the power generation design parameters and they exclude gas turbines and
return-to-service power stations. Figure 11 indicates that carbon dioxide emissions
were highest in 2005. However, there are still steady increases from the year 2006 to
2008.
14
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Mt)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Figure 11: Carbon dioxide emissions. (Source: Eskom 2008b)
Carbon dioxide emissions was not reported on, in the 2003 SoER. However, given
that CO2 is the single most contributory gas to the greenhouse effect, this is an
important indicator to track.
1.4.6
Ozone and NOx concentrations
Ozone (O3) (also known as smog) exposure leads to itchy and watery eyes and has
also been associated with respiratory disorders such as asthma (USEPA, 2005).
Other health effects resulting from O3 are pneumonia, bronchitis and reduced lung
function.). According to Held et al., (1996), ozone concentrations in the mixing layer
over the Highveld are high (40 ppb). Annual mean concentrations of O3 range
between 20 and 38 ppb. Hourly mean concentrations exceed 20 ppb with only a few
above 60 ppb (Held et al., 1996). NO is the form mainly emitted from combustion
processes and it quickly oxidizes to form NO2 (Tyson et. al., 1988).
Ozone (O3) and Nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions have been used to depict pollution
levels that have an impact on climate change. Figure 12 below presents data
obtained from Eskom Elandsfontein monitoring station. Annual levels of NOx
concentrations increased steadily over the years from 2003 to 2008. The 2008
emissions used in this report were recorded from the beginning of the year until
September 2008. O3 emissions are much higher than NOx emissions measured. This
is partly due to the secondary formation of O3 from NOx that occurs in the presence
15
of sunlight. This photochemical reaction causes elevated levels of O3 in the
atmosphere.
Concentrations (ppb)
35
30
25
20
NOx
15
Ozone
10
5
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Figure 12: Ozone and Nitrogen Oxides emissions (Source: Eskom, 2008)
1.4.7
Temperature and Rainfall Patterns
This is a trend indicator that observes climatic changes over time. Data has been
obtained from the South African Weather Service. Data from the Carolina weather
station has been used in this report as it was the most comprehensive and climatic
records could be obtained from 1965. Figure 13 below presents temperature
recorded in Carolina from 1965 to 2007. There seems to be similar trends over the
years for both minimum and maximum temperatures, however, 1983, 1990 and 1994
recorded higher minimum temperatures than the usual 70C – 90C recorded over most
years. Also, 1983 was the warmest year over the 42 year period with average annual
maximum temperature reaching 250C.
16
Average Annual Maximum
Average Annual Minimum
30.00
Temperature ( 0C)
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
19
65
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
92
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
0.00
Figure 13: Average Annual Temperature from 1965-2007. (Source: SAWS,
2008).
2
AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN MPUMALANGA
Coal burning has increased steadily over the years from 2003 to 2008, with a sharp
increase in 2005. Figures for 2008 are expected to be higher by the end of the year
due to the increased electricity demand in the country that occurred in 2008, which
led to load shedding. Also, some previously decommissioned power stations have
been brought in line due to the increased power demand in the country.
Data from 2 Eskom monitoring stations (Elandsfontein and Leandra) indicate steady
increases in ambient SO2 levels from 2003 to 2006. During 2007 and 2008, SO2
levels drop considerably and it is envisaged that this may be due to improved
efficiency in power generation plants as it is not due to reduced coal usage. This may
as well show an improvement in ambient air quality of the region, however, a more
holistic representation of monitoring sites would give a clearer indication.
17
Relative particulate levels show a steady reduction from 2003 to 2007, with a slight
increase in 2007.
The re-commissioning of previously de-commissioned power
stations may, however, reduce this trend. Other important factors in this regard, such
as biomass burning from farming operations and runaway fires have not been taken
into account when analysing this indicator due to the unavailability of data.
Carbon dioxide levels reported by Eskom (Eskom, 2008b) show steady increases
over the years (2003-2008) except for 2005, which showed an instant increase.
Comprehensive CO2 monitoring data would give a clearer picture as this was not
available at the time of compiling this report. CO2, is an important contributor to
climate change as worldwide studies have linked global CO2 levels to a global
increase in temperature (IPCC, 2008).
Ozone (O3) emissions are much higher than NOx emissions measured at the
Elandsfontein Eskom monitoring station. This is partly due to the photochemical
reaction that causes elevated levels of O3 in the atmosphere. O3, is an important
contributor to climate change as worldwide studies have linked global O3 levels to a
global increase in temperature (IPCC, 2008).
Annual temperature measured in Mpumalanga over the period 1965-2008 show very
little disparities. The year 1982 proves to have been the warmest year in the period
and the years 1982, 1990 and 1994 had minimum temperatures above 100C, which
means they were warmer years than the others. This indicator overall shows no
issues of major concern in terms of temperature values in the Mpumalanga Province.
3
RESPONSES
3.1 Ambient air quality legislation
3.1.1
National Environmental Management Act 39 of 2005
The National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act 39 of 2004 (AQA) has
shifted the approach of air quality management from source-based control to
receptor-based control. The basis of this approach will be control of all major
sources, including industrial, vehicles and domestic sources in terms of ambient air
concentrations and will be the responsibility of Local Government. The main
objectives of the Air Quality Act are to:
18

Give effect to everyone’s right ‘to an environment that is not harmful to their
health and well-being’; and

Protect the environment by providing reasonable legislative and other
measures that (i) prevent pollution and ecological degradation, (ii) promote
conservation and (iii) secure ecologically sustainable development and use of
natural
resources
while
promoting
justifiable
economic
and
social
development.
The Act makes provision for the setting and formulation of National ambient air
quality standards for ‘substances or mixtures of substances which present a threat to
health, well-being or the environment’. More stringent standards can be established
at the provincial and local levels.
3.2
Ambient Air Quality Standards and Guidelines
Guidelines provide a basis for protecting public health from adverse effects of air
pollution and for eliminating, or reducing to a minimum, those contaminants of air that
are known or likely to be hazardous to human health and well-being (WHO, 2000).
Once the guidelines are adopted as standards, they become legally enforceable. Air
quality guidelines and standards can be developed for the following averaging
periods, namely an instantaneous peak, 1-hour average, 24-hour average, 1-month
average and annual average.
The South African Bureau of Standards (SABS), in collaboration with DEAT,
established ambient air quality standards for criteria pollutants. Two standards were
published as part of this process:

SANS 69:2004 - Framework for setting and implementing national ambient
air quality standards; and

SANS 1929:2005 - Ambient Air Quality - Limits for common pollutants
SANS 69 defines the basic principles of a strategy for air quality management in
South Africa. This standard supports the establishment and implementation of
ambient air quality objectives for the protection of human health and the environment.
Such air quality objectives include:
19

Limit values - to be based on scientific knowledge, with the aim of avoiding,
preventing or reducing harmful effects on human health and the environment
as a whole. Limit values are to be attained within a given period and are not
to be exceeded once attained.

Target values - to be set to avoid harmful long-term effects on human health
and the environment. Target values represent long-term goals to be pursued
through cost-effective progressive methods. At these values, pollutants are
either harmless or unlikely to be reduced through expending further
reasonable cost on abatement due to background sources or other factors.

Alert thresholds - refer to levels beyond which there is a risk to human health
from brief exposure. The exceedance of such thresholds necessitates
immediate steps.
The SANS 1929 standard sets limit values based on human health effects of SO2,
PM10, NOx, O3, lead and benzene concentrations (Table 1).
Table 1:
Proposed ambient air quality standards for criteria pollutants.
Pollutant
Averaging Period
Limit Value
3
Limit Value
(µg/m )
(ppb)
500
191
24-hr
125
48
Annual average
50
19
1-hr
200
106
Annual average
40
21
30 000
26 000
10 000
8 700
1-hr
200
102
24-hr
75
-
Annual average
40
-
Annual average
0.5
-
10-minute running
average
Sulphur dioxide
SO2
Nitrogen dioxide
NO2
Carbon monoxide
CO
1-hr
8-hourly running
average
Ozone
O3
Particulate Matter
PM10
Lead
Pb
20
Pollutant
Benzene
C6H6
Averaging Period
Limit Value
3
Limit Value
(µg/m )
(ppb)
5
1.6
Annual average
The Air Quality Act NEMAQA does not make provision for the setting of legally
binding local air quality standards by local authorities. However, it is accepted that
local authorities may establish more stringent ambient air quality guidelines than the
National standards.
3.2.1
International Policies
South Africa has ratified several multilateral environmental agreements relating to air
quality and climate change and is required to implement the conditions of these
agreements.
3.2.2
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides
the framework for addressing climate change as a global issue and was founded in
1992, and came into force in 1994. It provides a broad consensus for establishing
institutions and practices to address climate change by introducing processes of
ongoing review, discussion and information exchange. The UNFCCC allocates
different responsibilities to developed (Annex 1) and developing (Non-Annex 1)
countries whereby developed countries have greater commitments as stated in
Annex 4 of the Convention. The Framework Convention is expanded on through
protocols, of which the Kyoto Protocol is the most recent and well recognised (Draft
National Framework for Air Quality Management in South Africa, 2007).
In August 1997, South Africa ratified the UNFCCC and is classified as a non-Annex 1
Party. South Africa has obligations as stated in Article 4 Paragraph 1 of the
UNFCCC, including the following:

Prepare and periodically update a national inventory of greenhouse gas
emissions and sinks;

Formulate and implement national and, where appropriate, regional
programmes to mitigate climate change and facilitate adequate adaptation to
climate change;

Promote and cooperate in the development, application and diffusion of
technologies, practices and processes that control, reduce or prevent
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases;
21

Promote sustainable management, and promote and cooperate in the
conservation and enhancement of sinks and reservoirs of all greenhouse
gases;

Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change;

Take climate change considerations into account in the relevant social,
economic and environmental policies and actions with a view to minimising
adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the
environment;

Promote and cooperate in scientific, technological, technical, socio-economic
and other research, systematic observation and development of data archives
related to the climate system and intended to further the understanding and to
reduce or eliminate uncertainties;

Promote and cooperate in the full, open and prompt exchange of relevant
scientific, technological, technical, socio-economic and legal information
related to the climate system and climate change; and

Promote and cooperate in education, training and public awareness related to
climate change.
3.2.3
Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in December 1997 at the meeting of the Conference
of the Parties to the UNFCCC, and came into force in February 2005. The Protocol
establishes the commitment of developed (Annex 1) countries to reduce GHG
emissions by 5.2%, compared to 1990 levels, for the period 2008 – 2012. There are
three principle mechanisms used to facilitate GHG emission reduction, including, the
clean development mechanism (CDM), joint implementation, and international
emissions trading. The purpose of the CDM is to assist Parties not included in Annex
I in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of
the Convention, and to assist Parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance
with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments (Draft National
Framework for Air Quality Management in South Africa, 2007).
South Africa acceded to the protocol in 2002 and it came into force in 2005.
However, South Africa’s status as a non-Annex 1 country implies no binding
commitment to cap or reduce GHG emissions.
22
3.2.4
National Strategies
In response to South Africa’s responsibilities for climate change, the Department of
Environmental Affairs and Tourism has also developed a National Climate Change
Response Strategy. A number of key interventions have been recommended in this
document, namely (DEAT, 2004):

Rapidly develop the DNA function within the Department of Minerals and
Energy to facilitate the forwarding of CDM project proposals to the Executive
Board for approval without undue delay;

Perform a technology needs analysis for South Africa that builds on and
integrates existing knowledge, through the Department of Science and
Technology;

Access appropriate funds, as feasible, for implementation of the climate
change programme, in particular for adaptation purposes;

Use the public sector and financing institutions linked to government, such as
the Industrial Development Corporation and the Development Bank of South
Africa to fund climate change projects;

Accelerate the process of education, training and awareness of climate
change and its impacts to speed up the implementation of response actions;

Ensure the cooperation and buy-in of all stakeholders to climate change
response through the NCCC and GCCC, to facilitate a coordinated national
programme;

Implement sustainable industrial development through coordinated policies,
strategies and incentives through the Department of Trade and Industry and
the various industry sectors;

Accelerate water resource management and contingency planning through
the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry;

Adapt agricultural, rangeland and forestry practices appropriately through the
Departments of Agriculture and Water Affairs and Forestry;

Maintain an appropriate attendance at UNFCCC and related meetings; and

Set a time frame for action, with specific milestones and responsibilities, to
formulate appropriate national policies and measures for climate change
action and develop a practicable plan of implementation.
3.2.5
Local Strategies
Various Municipalities in South Africa have or are in the process of developing
strategies to address climate change. Strategies for the Mpumalanga Province,
however, are not available at this stage. These national strategies are currently used
23
in Province. There are some initiatives in line with the responses to air quality and
climate change though, for example the Environmental Forum and the Provincial Air
Quality Committee.
4
SUMMARY OF ATMOSPHERE AND CLIMATE
In conclusion, air pollution indicators observed emphasise the need to monitor air
quality more strategically in the Mpumalanga province. An air quality management
plan, is required to track hot-spots and design adaptive strategies to reduce the
amounts of pollution released from the activities that take place in the Province. The
importance of comprehensive monitoring cannot be over emphasized as the
Mpumalanga province forms a larger part of the Highveld National Priority Area
(DEAT, 2007).
Although specific guidelines for air quality and climate change strategies have not yet
been formulated for the Mpumalanga province, there national and international
strategies available. Furthermore, enforcement of legislation and guidelines needs to
be conducted in order to ensure compliance to national legislation. Where
compliance cannot be achieved in the short-term, plans to achieve it must be put in
place for the long-term with measurable milestones to track progress. Climate
change can be tracked using rainfall, solar radiation and temperature data. Although
not much can be done to control climate change at local level, the reduction of air
pollution has a positive impact on climate change effects. Further, if climate change
parameters are monitored closely they can be used to design adaptive measures that
will ensure less negative impact on people’s well-being and the environment.
24
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6
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author would like to acknowledge the following contributions:

Eskom Corporate Services: Sustainability;

South African Weather Services;

Statistics South Africa; and

The Demarcation Board.
29