NCEA Level 3 Agricultural and Horticultural Science 91532 (3.5) — page 1 of 7 SAMPLE ASSESSMENT SCHEDULE Agricultural and Horticultural Science 91532 (3.5): Analyse a New Zealand primary production environmental issue Assessment Criteria Achievement Achievement with Merit Analyse involves: Critically analyse involves: explaining the environmental issue arising from the primary production processes explaining, in detail, the issue arising from the primary production processes explaining potential courses of action to mitigate the negative impacts of the processes evaluating potential courses of action to mitigate the negative impacts of the production processes recommending sustainable production processes. recommending sustainable production processes that best address the issue. Achievement with Excellence Comprehensively analyse involves: evaluating the environmental issue arising from the primary production processes justifying potential courses of action to mitigate the negative impacts of the production processes (may involve comparing and contrasting alternative courses of action recommending sustainable production practices that best address the issue and are economically viable. Evidence Statement Expected coverage for environmental issue: The use of agrichemicals in agricultural/horticultural systems Agrichemicals are used in many aspects of primary production in New Zealand. These include: (a) chemical sprays (fungicides, insecticides, herbicides, etc) used to control diseases, pests, and weeds fertilisers used to provide additional nutrients to plants for improved growth drenches, pour-ons, and animal health treatments used to improve animal health and performance. Negative environmental implications: Water pollution, due to leaching of chemicals into waterways or underground aquifers. The leaching of chemicals into waterways and aquifers is a particular risk for agricultural fertilisers and sprays. These have the greatest potential to be applied in quantities that risk leaching – causing increased nutrient levels in the water, accelerated growth of algae, and loss of habitat for living organisms. The run-off from foliage of chemical sprays over time can also end up in waterways. (b) (i) Residual build-up of toxic chemicals in the soil over time. Many chemicals applied to land and crops do not break down in the soil. Over time, their concentration in the soil builds up to levels that may be toxic to plants and animals. Another danger is the chemicals re-entering the food chain and negatively impacting on plant and / or animal life. Harming of non-target species through the use of non-selective / broad-spectrum pesticides / insecticides (eg honey bees). Air pollution caused by spray drift (eg DDT, copper-based chemicals). (b) (ii) Economic implications: NCEA Level 3 Agricultural and Horticultural Science 91532 (3.5) — page 2 of 7 Increasing the value of produce. In many industries it is very difficult to grow produce to export specifications without the use of agrichemicals. By using agrichemicals, growers are able to produce high-quality produce and access high-value markets – eg pip fruit: high quality, pest- and blemish-free fruit has received an average of ~$1.22 / kg over the past three years, while blemished fruit that is only really accepted by the processing industry has received only ~$0.20 / kg. Cost of agrichemicals to the producer. Agrichemicals are a significant expense within many farming systems. Kiwifruit growers spend an average of $8,900 each year ($1,780 / ha) on weed and pest control, while national annual expenditure on pesticides alone was estimated at ~$210 million in 2004. Social implications Human health risks. Many agrichemicals are very toxic and many people (especially asthmatics), suffer adverse reactions if they come into contact with the chemical via spray drift or by some other means. (b) (iii) Contamination of soil, drinking water supplies, food. The residual nature of many agrichemicals after use means they can build up in the soil over time (eg sheep farming to dairying, and issues around old sheep dips or rural land being subdivided for housing). These residues can impact on potential new uses of the land. The contamination of drinking water – especially in intensively cropped or planted regions such as Hawke’s Bay, with shallow aquifers being used for public water supplies – is a significant issue and potential risk. Course of action that New Zealand producers are likely to implement (strengths and weaknesses) Use integrated pest management (IPM)-type programmes to manage pests / diseases / weeds within primary production systems Strengths Reduced volumes / frequencies of chemical / spray / drench use; therefore lower cost and environmental impact. Selection of low toxicity or ‘soft’ pesticides / herbicides / insecticides. Acceptance of approved programmes in international markets, eg EUREGAP approval carries an endorsement of the system’s sustainability and environmental awareness. Weaknesses More time spent monitoring pest and disease numbers within the growing system. (c) Some crops / industries do not have suitable chemicals either available or ‘registered / approved for use’. This can be considered a high-risk approach – if you get it wrong, the season’s crop is potentially ruined. Halt the use of agrichemicals – go totally ‘organic’ Strengths Halts the release of agrichemicals into the environment and any negative implications / impacts. These include adverse effects on non-target species, the build-up of residues, human impacts, etc. As an example, it is estimated that 3,500 tonnes of agrichemical ‘active ingredient’ (AI) are used in New Zealand each year. Produce is able to be sold as organic and hence receives a premium price – eg organic kiwifruit produce receives $10.31 per tray vs. $8.20 for non-organic regular varieties. Reduced purchase costs of agrichemicals for the producer. Weaknesses NCEA Level 3 Agricultural and Horticultural Science 91532 (3.5) — page 3 of 7 Economically, the implications would be huge for some industries. The onion, brassica, pipfruit, and potato industries would struggle to produce economic crops without the use of agrichemicals. The arable and pastoral industries would also incur extra costs if they had to use conventional cultivation instead of the use of herbicides within their programmes. Justification (why the recommended course of action is better than the other two the candidate has suggested) Example of answer: Use IPM programmes such as KIWIGREEN to limit the negative environmental impacts of agrichemicals These are characterised by the use of pest monitoring to guide insecticide spraying; a reduced choice of pesticides with use at long, pre-harvest intervals; greater use of ‘soft’ pesticides [mineral oil, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) sprays]; and modified plant / canopy / soil management to reduce disease pressure and hence the need for frequent, high-volume spraying. All these contribute to reducing the environmental impact of agrichemical use. Monitoring faecal egg numbers and appropriate drench and stock management allows for a reduction in the use of drenches within livestock production systems, with potentially large cost savings. This option is economically viable, as product yield and quality are able to be maintained, and access to major markets continues, provided the agrichemicals used are approved for use by that country / market. The social impact is also minimised, as the use of the more toxic / dangerous chemicals is generally stopped or restricted, and the frequency of spraying is reduced. One issue with this approach is with the use of herbicides, which make up around two-thirds of total agrichemical use. For example, Glyphosate in pasture and crop renewal programmes, and the issue that the alternative (conventional cultivation) may be more time-consuming and expensive, and may have other potentially damaging effects in terms of damage to soil structure, earthworm numbers and carbon dioxide emissions. The risk of pest resistance may also be a greater issue if fewer agrichemical options are available to growers. Going totally organic and halting the use of agrichemicals has benefits in terms of the environment and reduced impacts on society as a whole. However, the drop in economic income, both at the producer level and nationally, would be huge, and a significant part of New Zealand’s horticultural exports would be at risk of not meeting the quality required by their respective markets. A decline in efficiency in the pastoral agricultural and forestry sectors would also be likely if the widespread use of herbicides were restricted or stopped. A decline in animal growth rates, due to limits being placed on the use of drenches and pour-ons for parasite control, is another reason why this option is not preferred. Expected coverage for environmental issue: The emission of greenhouse gases from agricultural / horticultural production systems. Greenhouse gases are a by-product of many farming operations. These include: the belching of methane gas from ruminant livestock (cattle, sheep, deer, etc) and from dairy effluent systems (a) the release of nitrous oxide from nitrogen rich pastures (caused by high levels of fertiliser and subsequent stocking rates) the release of carbon dioxide from the oxidation of cultivated soil, the burning of fossil fuels in agricultural-based vehicles, and the burning off of crop residues and stubbles. Negative environmental implications: (b) (i) Increased air temperatures, due to greater retention of solar radiation from the sun (ie the greenhouse effect). Ten of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past 13 years. NCEA Level 3 Agricultural and Horticultural Science 91532 (3.5) — page 4 of 7 Rising sea levels, due to melting of the polar ice caps caused by warmer temperatures. From 1993–2007 the average rate of sea level rise was 3.3 mm / year. More coastal erosion due to the higher sea levels and more dynamic weather patterns. More extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, due to changing weather systems and the ability of air to carry more water as it becomes warmer, and the interactions between warm and cold air masses becoming more dynamic, eg the September 2010 storm in Southland / Otago. Compared with 1989/90, the number of growing degree-day values in the 2080s may increase by as much as 500 to 800 for most of the North Island, and for some northern and eastern parts of the South Island. For example, on the east coast of both islands, production is set to decrease by up to 45% in areas affected by water shortages. This includes Northland, Hawke’s Bay, and parts of the Tasman and Marlborough regions. Droughts are expected to occur 2–6 times more frequently than during the latter part of the twentieth century. Economic implications: Increased costs associated with the control of erosion of both coastlines and riverbanks. On the east coast of both islands, production is set to decrease by up to 45% in areas affected by water shortages. This includes Northland, Hawke’s Bay, and parts of the Tasman and Marlborough regions. Droughts are expected to occur 2–6 times more frequently than during the latter part of the twentieth century. (b) (ii) Improvements in production are projected in both dairying and sheep / beef farming in Southland and the west coast of the South Island. These regions are likely to remain wetter than other parts, with a warming climate improving the profitability of farming in these areas. There may be extra costs imposed on communities for dealing with the risk associated with the more extreme climatic events that climate change is expected to cause – eg higher costs / rates to pay for more extensive flood protection / river stopbanks. The storms in late spring in 2010 cost 2.5 million lambs, valued at the farm gate at over $200 million. Social implications: (b) (iii) A decline is projected for dairy and sheep / beef production in average-year and worst-year production in east coast areas (Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wellington, Canterbury), and also for Northland. This is likely to result in these farming systems becoming more risky and ultimately less viable, causing changes in both rural and urban communities. Course of action that New Zealand producers are likely to implement (strengths and weaknesses) Creating ‘carbon sinks’ by planting plantation forest / woodlots Strengths An easily achievable option. Provides a long-term income from the land in the form of wood / logs. (c) Forests are an effective sink for atmospheric carbon – estimated to absorb around 20 million tones of atmospheric carbon each year (we produce about 70 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas per year). New Zealand expects to absorb up to 105 million tonnes of CO 2 in the period 2008–2012 in forests planted after 1990. Weaknesses Carbon dioxide emissions are a very small part of total greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture in New Zealand. The agricultural sector accounts for only 2% of carbon dioxide emissions. When the trees are eventually harvested, this would result in the release of some of the stored NCEA Level 3 Agricultural and Horticultural Science 91532 (3.5) — page 5 of 7 carbon from the decay of the slash and debris. Retiring unproductive hill country to allow regeneration Strengths Reduction in hill country erosion (of up to 90% in some cases) associated with this action. Minimal loss in production and income. Weaknesses Once established / mature, the net effect of these regenerated areas on atmospheric CO 2 levels would be minimal, as the release of CO2 from the decay of the leaf litter / dead plant material increases. Reduce the number/density of ruminant animals on New Zealand farms Strengths Reducing ruminant numbers not only decreases methane emissions (a potent greenhouse gas – 21 times more potent than carbon dioxide), but would also reduce nitrous oxide emissions, due to the reduced need to apply large quantities of urea and other nitrogenous fertilisers, and fewer urine patches and other high-risk emission situations. The effect on the level of emissions is apparent very quickly. Weaknesses There would be huge opposition from the farming sector, as it would require a total change in land use, farming systems and livelihood for thousands of farmers. The economic effect on communities and the country would be significant. Reduce/limit the burning of fossil fuels to heat greenhouses Strengths Overall reduction in CO2 emissions in New Zealand. Weaknesses Loss in productivity, due to the inability to heat greenhouses to the optimum level. Lack of (and cost of) suitable alternative heating options. This contributes a very small proportion of the agricultural sector’s greenhouse gas emissions – less than 1%. Reduce/limit the application of nitrogenous fertilisers by farmers Strengths Less money spent on purchasing fertiliser. Currently, urea, the most common nitrogenous fertiliser, costs $624 per tonne, while more expensive options such as DAP cost $995 per tonne. Less nitrogen available for oxidation into nitrous oxide from both fertiliser sources and urine patches (nitrous oxide is an extremely potent greenhouse gas – 210 times more potent than carbon dioxide). Weaknesses Pasture growth on farms that traditionally use a lot of nitrogenous fertiliser would be reduced. This might typically result in a 10–15% drop in pasture growth and productivity in the first year on some soils. Stocking rates and farm productivity would decrease. Increase the use of nitrification inhibitors such as Eco-N Strengths Increase in the effective use of soil nitrogen for plant growth. Growth increases by up to 18– 20%. NCEA Level 3 Agricultural and Horticultural Science 91532 (3.5) — page 6 of 7 Reduced nitrous oxide emissions by up to 75%, and less leaching of nitrates into waterways in the order of 60%. Weaknesses The cost involved in the purchase and application of the nitrification inhibitors – two applications per year, costing $92 per hectare. The actual effectiveness is still a matter of some debate amongst soil scientists and fertiliser companies – especially in the wetter regions of New Zealand such as Taranaki and the West Coast. Justification (why the recommended course of action is better than the other two the candidate has suggested) Example of answer: Creating carbon sinks by planting forests / woodlots on the more unproductive hill country. This option is the most easily implemented across a range of regions and land uses. It does not significantly reduce the productive capacity of farmland, as it would be the less productive parts of the farm that would be planted in trees. It could also provide a long-term income from the land in the form of wood / logs. Forests are an effective sink for atmospheric carbon – estimated to absorb around 20 million tonnes of atmospheric carbon each year (we produce about 70 million tonnes of CO 2-equivalent greenhouse gas per year). New Zealand expects to absorb up to 105 million tonnes of CO 2 in the period 2008–2012 in forests planted after 1990. The use of nitrification inhibitors that reduce the emissions of nitrous oxide from farmland (especially intensively farmed land) has increased in the past few years. While it does reduce nitrous oxide emissions by up to 75%, and increases farm crop / pasture growth up to 20%, there is a cost associated with applying it ($92/ha), and difficulties (and extra costs) arise if it is to be applied to rolling or hill country that is subject to high stocking rates. Although nitrous oxide is an extremely potent greenhouse gas (approximately 210 times more potent than CO 2), worldwide it is currently only the third most significant greenhouse gas after methane and carbon dioxide. Therefore, at present, the planting of forests / woodlots to act as carbon sinks is the most effective and socially acceptable option among those currently available to New Zealand producers, and has the most positive economic outcomes. NØ No response, no relevant evidence. Candidate: describes a farming practice that causes the issue N1 correctly identifies TWO implications gives a partial description of a course of action. Not Achieved Candidate: describes a farming practice that causes the issue N2 correctly identifies TWO implications describes ONE potential course of action that would mitigate the negative environmental implications. Candidate: explains a farming practice that causes the issue Achievement A3 correctly identifies THREE implications (TWO environmental implications AND ONE social implication OR economic implication) explains ONE potential course of action that would mitigate the negative environmental implications and gives a partial explanation of a second course of action. NCEA Level 3 Agricultural and Horticultural Science 91532 (3.5) — page 7 of 7 Candidate: explains a farming practice that causes the issue A4 correctly identifies FOUR implications explains TWO potential courses of action that would mitigate the negative environmental implications. Candidate: explains in detail a farming practice that causes the issue M5 explains THREE implications (TWO environmental implications AND ONE social implication OR economic implication) evaluates ONE potential course of action that would mitigate the negative environmental implications. Merit Candidate: explains in detail a farming practice that causes the issue M6 explains FOUR implications evaluates ONE potential course of action that would mitigate the negative environmental implications and gives partial evaluation of a second course of action. Candidate: E7 evaluates a farming practice that causes the issue gives a partial justification of a selected course of action. Candidate: Excellence evaluates a farming practice that causes the issue E8 gives a comprehensive evaluation of a selected course of action, which involves consideration of the social and economic implications and gives a comparison with an alternative course of action.