F520_Bonds (Part b) 1 Valuation of Debt Contracts and Their Price Volatility Characteristics Part b Please review these notes for next week. I will answer questions and go over highlights of these notes briefly next week. This set of the chapter 18 notes has two purposes. 1. Apply the concepts of chapter 18 to a note that is between coupon dates. 2. Gain a functional knowledge of your calculators and Excel. The following 3 pages provide information about a Treasury note that was issued on December 31, 2006 and matured on December 31, 2010. The Wall Street Journal quotes are for March 11, 2007. Our goal is to provide a set of detailed calculations for this note using all the concepts in Chapter 18. The difference between this note and the material typically used in textbooks is that we are not evaluating bonds only on their last coupon date. Our evaluation period is in-between coupon dates. This will mean that each of our calculations will need some adjustment. F520_Bonds (Part b) 2 Outline of the questions we will answer. 1. Determine the accrued interest for this note. 2. If you bought this note today, what would you pay for this note? Include the quoted price and the accrued interest. 3. If you sold this note today, what would you pay for this note? 4. Using your time value of money (TVM) keys can you show how this note’s price was obtained? 5. Using the note function keys on your financial calculator can you calculate this note’s price, accrued interest, and yield to maturity (YTM)? 6. Using Excel can you calculate this note’s price, accrued interest, and yield to maturity (YTM)? 7. What is this note’s nominal rate and its effective annual rate. 8. Calculate this note’s modified duration using the approximation method. 9. Calculate this note’s Macaulay duration and modified duration using the precise method. 10. Using the information just calculated in question 9, calculate the percentage change in price and the dollar change in price for this note. Assume interest rates increase by 30 basis points. 11. Compare your calculations of price changes in question 10 with the price that you obtain from a financial calculator using a yield-to-maturity that is 30 basis points higher. 12. Calculate the percentage change and the dollar value change using convexity. Assume a YTM that is 30 basis points higher. F520_Bonds (Part b) 3 Rewritten from the Wall Street Journal (3/11/07) Rate Mo/Yr Bid Asked Bond 1 Bond 2 1. 6 1/8 Dec 31, 2010n 9 1/4 Aug 15, 2007n 101.6875% 101.75% 101.5625% 101.625% Chg Ask Yld .09375 5.60 5.36 Determine the accrued interest for this note. The accrued interest is equal to: AI PAR * CPN A * 2 E PAR = Par value of bond CPN = Annual coupon payment A = Number of days from the beginning of the coupon period to the settlement date (today) E = Number of days in coupon period in which the settlement date falls Accrued interest in dollars as a percent of par: Bond 1 .06125 70 100 * * Accrued 2 181 Interest (%) =1.18439% Bond 2 100 * .0925 24 * 2 181 0.61326% A=70 days from 12/31/06 to 3/11/07 E=181 days from 12/31/06 to 6/30/07 A=24 days from 2/15/07 to 3/11/07 E= 181 days from 2/15/07 to 8/15/07 Accrued interest in dollars: Accrued Interest ($) 1000 * .06125 70 * 2 181 =$11.8439 1000 * .0925 24 * 2 181 =$6.1326 A=70 days from 12/31/06 to 3/11/07 E=181 days from 12/31/06 to 6/30/07 A=24 days from 2/15/07 to 3/11/07 E= 181 days from 2/15/07 to 8/15/07 F520_Bonds (Part b) 2. 4 If you bought this note today, what would you pay for this note? Include the quoted price and the accrued interest. Remember investors buy at the ask and sell at the bid price. Also when buying a bond you pay the quoted price plus accrued interest. Bond 1 101.75% Bond 2 101.625% Quoted Price (%) .0925 24 .06125 70 A=70 days from 12/31/06 to 3/11/07 100 * * 100 * * Accrued E=181 days from 12/31/06 to 6/30/07 2 181 2 181 Interest =1.18439% 0.61326% A=24 days from 2/15/07 to 3/11/07 E= 181 days from 2/15/07 to 8/15/07 (%) Price Paid 102.9344% 102.2383% (% of par) Converting percents into price (par value is $1000) Price per $1,029.34 $1,022.38 note F520_Bonds (Part b) 3. 5 If you sold this note today, what would you receive for this note? Remember investors buy at the ask and sell at the bid price. Also when selling a bond you receive the quoted price plus accrued interest. Bond 1 101.6875% Quoted Price (%) .06125 70 100 * * Accrued 2 181 Interest (%) =1.18439% Bond 2 101.5625% 100 * .0925 24 * 2 181 0.61326% A=70 days from 12/31/06 to 3/11/07 E=181 days from 12/31/06 to 6/30/07 A=24 days from 2/15/07 to 3/11/07 E= 181 days from 2/15/07 to 8/15/07 Price Paid 102.8719% 102.1758% (% of par) Converting percents into price (par value is $1000) Price per $1,028.72 $1,021.76 note The 0.0625% difference between the bid and the ask is the dealers revenue. This is separate from a brokerage commission that may be paid to a broker to contact the dealer. F520_Bonds (Part b) 6 4. Today is 3/11/07 Using your time value of money (TVM) keys can you show how this note’s price was obtained? Finding the value of this bond, if the current interest rate for this risk class is known. Bond 1: 12/31/06 6/30/07 12/31/07 6/30/08 12/31/08 6/30/09 12/31/09 6/30/10 12/31/10 | | | | | | | | | 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 3.0625 3.0625 3.0625 3.0625 3.0625 3.0625 3.0625 3.0625 Coupon payments (%) 100 Maturity Value (%) Step 1: Find the value on the date of the last coupon payment (12/31/06) just after the coupon was paid. N I PV PMT FV 8 coupon 5.60/2 = Cpt 6.125/2 = 100 the semi-annual residual value 2.80 semi3.0625 semipmts till (as %) maturity annual rate annual cpn pmt (as %) -101.8583% (value on 12/31/2006) Step 2: Find the value today, 3/11/07. N I PV PMT 70/181= 5.60/2 = -101.8583 0 0.38674 2.80 semi- FV cpt fraction of cpn annual rate period from last coupon (12/31/06)to today (3/11/07) (value 3/11/2007) 102.9529% Step 3: Find the quoted value by subtracting the accrued interest from the value in Step 2. 102.9529 – 1.18439 = 101.76851% = $1,017.69 F520_Bonds (Part b) 7 Bond 2 This bond has no intermediate bond payments, so it can be valued as a lump sum, reducing one step. N I (181-24) / 5.36/2 = 181= 2.68 semiannual rate 0.8674 PV Cpt PMT 0 FV 1000 + 1000*.0925/2 = 104.625 (% of par) fraction period left till maturity (8/15/07) to today (3/11/07) 102.252 (ask + accrued interest) Step 2: Find the quoted value by subtracting the accrued interest from the value in the previous step. 102.252 – 0.61326 = 101.639% = $1,016.39 F520_Bonds (Part b) 8 5. Using the bond function keys on your financial calculator can you calculate this note’s price, accrued interest, and yield to maturity (YTM)? BAII Plus BAII Plus Excel 2nd Bond 2nd Bond STD 3.1107 3.1107 3/11/2007 3-11-2007 ENTER ENTER Settlement date CPN 6.125 9.25 .0925 Coupon ENTER ENTER RDT 12.3110 8.1507 8/15/07 Redemption date ENTER ENTER or maturity date For date 12-31-2010 For date 8-15-2007 100 ENTER 100 ENTER 100 360 2nd SET 2nd SET Accounting year will show ACT will show ACT 2/Y 2nd SET 2nd SET payments per yr Will show 2/Y Will show 2/Y YLD 5.60 ENTER CPT =101.7676 CPT =1.1844 5.36 ENTER CPT =101.6348 CPT =0.6133 1= Actual/Actual 2= Semi-annual .0536 RV Residual value I used as a percent. Yield (calc) PRI Quote Price (calc) AI Accrued interest (calc) YIELD PRICE =101.6348 ACCRINT =0.6133 F520_Bonds (Part b) 9 Calculations using an HP12c HP12c HP12c Calculate Price Calculate Price f CLEAR FIN f CLEAR FIN 5.60 i 5.36 i 6.125 PMT 9.25 PMT g M.DY g M.DY 3.112007 ENTER 3.112007 ENTER 12.312010 8.152007 f PRICE f PRICE HP12c Calculate Yield f CLEAR FIN 101.75 PV 6.125 PMT g M.DY 3.112007 ENTER 12.152010 f YTM computes price of computes price of computes price of 101.7676 + 101.6348 + 5.5906 computes total price, including accrued interest computes total price, including accrued interest 102.952 Accrued interest 102.9520-101.7676 =1.1844 102.2481 Accrued interest 102.2481-101.6348 =0.6133 HP10B’s do not allow for bond calculations. F520_Bonds (Part b) 10 Calculations using an HP17b HP17b HP17b Calculate Price Calculate Price FIN Bond FIN Bond _ Clear Data _ Clear Data Type ACT Type ACT Semi Exit Semi Exit 03.112007 Sett 03.112007 Sett 12.312010 Mat 08.152007 Mat 6.125 cpn% 9.25 cpn% more more 5.6 yld% 5.36 yld% PRICE PRICE HP17b Calculate Yield FIN Bond _ Clear Data Type ACT Semi Exit 03.112007 Sett 12.312010 Mat 6.125 cpn% more 101.75 price YTM computes price of computes price of computes YTM of 101.7676 + 101.6348 + 5.5906 computes total price, including accrued interest computes total price, including accrued interest 102.952 Accrued interest 102.9520-101.7676 =1.1844 102.2481 Accrued interest 102.2481-101.6348 =0.6133 F520_Bonds (Part b) 6. 11 Using Excel can you calculate this note’s price, accrued interest, and yield to maturity (YTM)? Calculations using Excel (Excel insert: Please double click on this page to see the Excel sheet and use the function wizard to see the cell formulas.) Today Rate 6.125% 9.250% PRICE= PRICE= ACCRINT= ACCRINT= 3/11/2007 Maturity 12/31/2010 8/15/2007 Calculation 101.7676 101.6348 1.1844 0.6133 Bid 101.6875 101.5625 Ask 101.7500 101.6250 Based on Quotes Bid % Ask % 101.6875 101.7500 101.5625 101.6250 Chg. 0.0938 YIELD= YIELD= Ask Yield 5.60% 5.36% Calculation 5.60% 5.36% 100 100 F520_Bonds (Part b) 7. 12 What is this note’s nominal rate and its effective annual rate. Bond 1 Nominal rate is 5.60 percent Effective annual rate is 0.056 1 2 2 1 0.0568 5.68% Bond 2 Nominal rate is 5.36 percent Effective annual rate is 2 0.0536 1 2 1 0.0543 5.43% F520_Bonds (Part b) 8. 13 Calculate this note’s modified duration using the approximation method. Using a Financial Calculator and our estimation formula: BAII Plus BAII Plus BAII Plus P0 P+ PSTD 3-11-07 3-11-07 3-11-07 CPN 6.125 6.125 6.125 RDT 12-31-2010 12-31-2010 12-31-2010 RV 100 100 100 360 2nd set ACT 2nd set ACT 2nd set ACT 2/Y 2/Y 2/Y 2/Y YLD 5.60 5.70 5.50 PRI CPT=101.7676 CPT=101.4259 CPT=102.1107 Macaulay Duration 102.1107 101.4259 D P P 3.3645 2 * P * y 2 *101.7676 * .001 0 Using Excel: Bond 2 Duration equals time to maturity. All cash flows occur at maturity. 157 days (0.4301 years) from 3/11/07 to 8/15/07. F520_Bonds (Part b) 9. 14 Calculate this note’s Macaulay duration and modified duration using the precise method. Double Checking our Duration Calculation: Method 1 for Calculating Exact Duration (recommended) Wall Street Journal Quote 3/11/2007: (Understanding Duration) 6.125% Dec 10n 101.6875 101.7500 0.09375 Maurity 12/31/2010 Today 3/11/2007 Last Coupon Date 12/31/2006 Calculate Exact Duration: t 6/30/2007 1 12/31/2007 2 6/30/2008 3 12/31/2008 4 6/30/2009 5 12/31/2009 6 6/30/2010 7 12/31/2010 8 t # CF 30.625 30.625 30.625 30.625 30.625 30.625 30.625 1030.625 PV(CF)# $29.79 $28.98 $28.19 $27.42 $26.68 $25.95 $25.24 $826.33 $1,018.58 PV*t 29.79 57.96 84.57 109.69 133.38 155.69 176.69 6,610.67 7,358.45 5.60% Col. for convexity only PV*t*(t+1) 59.58 173.88 338.28 548.45 800.26 1,089.85 1,413.55 59,496.07 63,919.92 is semi-annual periods Used the 6 month rate (YTM/2) Duration as of last coupon date is Adjusting Duration for today. Exact Duration (as of Trading Date)is Excel calculation Total Convexity Calculation 59.38 semi-annual periods 7.22 Semi-annual periods 3.61 Years Subtract last coupon from today 0.19 =70/365=(3/11/98 - 12/31/97)/365 3.42 Years (Macaulay Duration) 3.42 Years (Macaulay Duration) 14.85 yearly convexity Note: Since t is measured in 6-month periods, we use the semiannual rate (equal to the YTM / 2). F520_Bonds (Part b) 15 Method 2 for calculating exact Duration (alternative): Wall Street Journal Quote 3/11/2007: (Understanding Duration) 6.125% Dec 10n 101.6875 101.7500 0.09375 Maurity 12/31/2010 Today 3/11/2007 Last Coupon Date 12/31/2006 Calculate Exact Duration t 6/30/2007 0.608219 12/31/2007 1.616438 6/30/2008 2.613699 12/31/2008 3.621918 6/30/2009 4.613699 12/31/2009 5.621918 6/30/2010 6.613699 12/31/2010 7.621918 t # CF 30.625 30.625 30.625 30.625 30.625 30.625 30.625 1030.625 PV(CF)# $30.11 $29.29 $28.49 $27.71 $26.96 $26.22 $25.51 $835.01 $1,029.31 PV*t 18.32 47.34 74.47 100.36 124.39 147.41 168.73 6,364.36 7,045.39 5.60% Col. for convexity only PV*t*(t+1) 29.46 123.87 269.11 463.87 698.30 976.16 1,284.69 54,872.95 58,718.40 is semi-annual periods Used the 6 month rate (YTM/2) Caculation of Exact Duration Macaulay Duration = Excel calculation Total Convexity Calculation 53.98 semi-annual periods 6.84 Semi-annual periods 3.42 Years 3.42 Years (Macaulay Duration) 13.50 yearly convexity Note: Since t is measured in 6-month periods, we use the semiannual rate (equal to the YTM / 2). F520_Bonds (Part b) 16 Method 3 for calculating exact Duration (alternative): Wall Street Journal Quote 3/11/2007: (Understanding Duration) 6.125% Dec 10n 101.6875 101.7500 0.09375 5.60% Maurity 12/31/10 EFF 5.68% Today 3/11/07 Calculate Exact Duration: PV(CF)# t CF PV*t 6/30/07 0.30411 30.625 $30.11 9.16 12/31/07 0.808219 30.625 $29.29 23.67 6/30/08 1.306849 30.625 $28.49 37.24 12/31/08 1.810959 30.625 $27.71 50.18 6/30/09 2.306849 30.625 $26.96 62.20 12/31/09 2.810959 30.625 $26.22 73.71 6/30/10 3.306849 30.625 $25.51 84.37 12/31/10 3.810959 1030.625 $835.01 3,182.18 $1,029.31 3,522.69 t is based on a 365 day year # Used the effective rate to be correct Macaulay Duration = 3.42 Days Excel 3.42 Years Bond Price plus Accrued Interest $1,029.31 Accrued Interest Last Coupon Date 12/31/2006 Next Coupon Date 6/30/2007 Price from Duration Table $ 1,029.31 Less Accrued Interest 11.84 Quoted Price $ 1,017.46 Price Calculated using Excel $ 1,017.68 which matches the WSJ quote price Note: Since t is measured in years (instead of semi-annual periods), we must use the Effective Annual Rate in discounting. F520_Bonds (Part b) 17 10. Using the information just calculated in question 9, calculate the percentage change in price and the dollar change in price for this note. Assume interest rates increase by 30 basis points. Using the duration calculated in precise method: dP MD * R P dP 3.42 * .0030 .009980545 0.9981% .056 P 1 2 Price = -0.009070545 * 102.9520% = -1.0275% = -$10.28 Using the duration calculated in approximate method: dP MD * R P dP 3.36 * .0030 .01008 1.008% P Price = -0.01008 * 102.9520% = -1.0378% = -$10.38 F520_Bonds (Part b) 18 11. Compare your calculations of price changes in question 10 with the price that you obtain from a financial calculator using a yield-to-maturity that is 30 basis points higher. STD CPN RDT RV 360 2/Y YLD PRI BAII Plus 3-11-07 6.125 12-31-2010 100 2nd set ACT 2/Y 5.60 CPT=101.7676 BAII Plus 3-11-07 6.125 12-31-2010 100 2nd set ACT 2/Y 5.90 CPT=100.7467 101.7676% – 100.7467% = 1.0209% = $10.21 reduction F520_Bonds (Part b) 19 12. Calculate the percentage change and the dollar value change using convexity. Duration: D P P 102.1107 101.4259 3.3645 2 * P * y 2 *101.7676 * .001 0 Total Convexity: CX P P 2* P P * y 2 0 0 102.1107 101.4259 2 *101.7676 101.7676 * 0.001 2 0.0014 13.7568 0.000101768 Expected Price Change assuming +30 basis points : 2 dP 1 MD * R CX (R) P 2 2 dP 1 3.3645 * .0030 13.7568 (.0030) P 2 dP .0100935 .000061907 .010031594 1.00% P Price = -0.01 * 102.9520% = -1.02952% = -$10.30 reduction in price The convexity measurement is slightly better than the approximate of –$10.38 found in part 10.