CHAPTER 3: Solutions to Selected Exercises 3.1 a. Scatterplot of Salary vs GPA b. The straight line appearance of the plot in Part a indicates that a simple linear regression model should be appropriate. 3.2 a. y| x 4.00 0 1 (4.00) is the mean of the population of all potential starting salaries for marketing graduates having a 4.00 GPA. b. y| x 2.50 0 1 (2.50) is the mean of the population of all potential starting salaries for marketing graduates having a 2.50 GPA. c. 1 = the change in mean starting salary associated with a one point increase in the grade point average. d. 0 = the mean starting salary for marketing graduates with a grade point average of 0.00. The interpretation of 0 fails to make practical sense because it requires that a marketing graduate have a grade point average of 0.00. 3.3 e. All factors other than the grade point average. For example, extra-curricular activities and overall GPA. a. b1 =5.70657 may be interpreted as follows: An increase of one point in the GPA corresponds to an increase of $5,706.57 in the average starting salary. 13 b0 14.8156 clearly has no practical interpretation because it indicates a mean starting salary of $14,815.60 when the GPA=0.000. b. yˆ 14.8156 5.70657(3.25) 33.362 ($33,362) c. SS xy xi y i xi yi 7 21.57 226.8 10.5040 709.372 7 2 xi SS xx xi2 7 21.57 2 1.8407 68.3071 7 SS xy 10.5040 b1 5.7065 SS xx 1.8407 x xi 21.57 3.0814 7 7 y y i 226.8 32.4 7 7 b0 y b1 x 32.4 (5.7065)(3.0814) 14.816 Note: For more accurate estimate carry more decimal places. 3.4 a. s2 SSE 1.438 .2876 n2 72 s s 2 .2876 .5363 14 b. SSE y i2 [b0 y i b1xi y i ] 7409.7 [(14.8156)( 226.8) (5.70657)(709.372)] 1.44 Note: For more accurate estimate carrying more decimal places, starting in Exercise 3.3. Round-off-error can be surprisingly large. 3.5 The straight line appearance of the data plot indicates that a simple linear regression model should be appropriate. 3.6 a. It is the mean of the service times required when the number of copiers is 4. b. It is the mean of the service times required when the number of copiers is 6. c. The slope parameter equals the change in the mean service time that is associated with each additional copier serviced. d. The intercept is the mean service time when there are no copiers. It could make practical sense if it requires service time to be 0 when no copies are serviced. e. All factors other than the number of copiers serviced. a. b1 24.6022 may be interpreted as follows: An increase of one copier serviced 3.7 corresponds to an increase of 24.6 minutes in the mean time required. b0 11.464 clearly has no practical meaning because it indicates that the mean service time is 11.464 minutes for 0 copiers. b. yˆ 11.4641 24.6022(4) 109.873 c. . 15 (109.9 minutes) SS xy xi y i xi yi 11 431184 809.6364 5438 11 SS xx xi2 xi 2 11 (43) 2 201 32.9091 11 SS xy 809.6364 b1 24.6022 SS xx 32.9091 xi 43 y 1184 3.9091 y i 107.6364 11 11 11 11 b0 107.6364 (24.6022)(3.9091) 11.464 x 3.8 a. s2 SSE 191.70166 21.3002 n2 11 2 s s 2 21.3002 4.6152 b. SSE y i2 [b0 y i b1xi y i ] 147552 [(11.4641)(1184) (24.6022)(5438)] 191.7 (Carry more decimal places in 3.7c and here for more accuracy) 3.9 A straight line appears to be a reasonable approximation for relating the average demand to price difference. 3.10 a. Mean demand when price difference is .10. b. Mean demand when price difference is -.05. c. Change in mean demand per dollar increase in price difference. d. Mean demand when price difference = 0; yes e. Factors other than price difference, such as amount and type of advertising. a. b1 2.66522 has the following interpretation: 3.11 For each increase in the price difference (fresh price - ind. price) of one dollar, the mean demand for Fresh increases by 266, 522 bottles. b0 7.81409 has the following interpretation: 16 When there is no price difference between fresh price and average industry price, mean demand for the large bottle of Fresh is 781,409 bottles. b. yˆ 7.814088 2.665214(.10) 8.081 c. yˆ b0 b1 x 8.5 = 7.81409 + 2.6652x x d. .68591 .257, or about 26 cents 2.6652 s2 SSE 2.8059 .10021 n 2 30 2 s s 2 .10021 .3166 3.12 3.13 a. b. Since the relationship between direct labor cost (y) and batch size (x) has a straight appearance, a simple linear regression model is appropriate. a. Mean labor cost when batch size = 60. b. Mean labor cost when batch size = 30. c. Change in mean labor cost per unit increase in batch size. d. Mean labor cost when batch size = 0. This could make sense if mean labor cost is 0 when batch size is 0. e. Factors other than batch size; answers will vary. 17 3.14 a. SS xy xi y i xi yi n (548)(5,782) 365,027 100,982.33 12 xi 2 SS xx xi2 n 5482 9,952.667 34,978 12 SS xy 100,982.32 b1 10.14626 SS xx 9,952.667 5782 548 b0 y b1 x 10.14626 18.4875 12 12 b. b1 is the estimated increase in mean labor cost ($1014.63) for every 1 unit increase in the batch size. b0 is the estimated mean labor cost (18.4880) when batch size = 0; no. 3.15 c. yˆ 18.4880 10.1463x d. yˆ 18.4880 10.1463(60) 627.266 a. s2 b. SSE y i2 [b0 y i b1xi y i ] = 3,811,300 [(18.48751)(5,782)+(10.14626)(365,027)] SSE 747 74.7 n 2 12 2 s s 2 74.7 8.643 = 746 (Carry more decimal places in 3.14 Part a for more accuracy) 18 3.16 a. b0 =14.816 b1 =5.7066 b. SSE = 1.438 s 2 .288 c. sb1 .3953 t = 14.44 s=.536321 t b1 / sb1 5.7066 / .3953 14.44 d. t[.5025 ] 2.571 Reject H 0 , strong evidence of a significant linear relationship between x and y. e. t[.5005 ] 4.032 Reject H 0 , very strong evidence of a significant linear relationship between x and y. f. p-value = .000 Reject at all , extremely strong evidence of a significant linear relationship between x and y. g. 95% CI : [b1 t.5025 sbi ] 5.7066 (2.571)(.3953) [4.690, 6.723] We are 95% confident that the mean starting salary increases by between $4690 and $6723 for each 1.0 increase in GPA. h. 99% CI : [b1 t.5005 sbi ] 5.7066 (4.032)(.3953) [4.113, 7.300] We are 99% confident that the mean starting salary increases by between $4113 and $7300 for each 1.0 increase in GPA. i. sbb 1.235 t 12.00 t b0 / sb0 14.816 / 1.235 12.00 j. k. p-value = .000 Reject at all , Extremely strong evidence that the y-intercept is significant. sbi s SS xx .5363 1.8407 .3953 1 x2 1 3.0814 .5363 1.235 n SS xx 7 1.8407 2 sb0 s 3.17 a. bo 11.46403 b1 24.60221 19 b. SSE 191.70166 c. sb1 .80451 s 2 21.30019 s 4.61521 t 30.58 t b1 / sb1 24.60221 / .80451 30.58 d. e. t .9025 2.262 t.9005 3.250 x and y . Reject H 0 , strong evidence of a linear relationship between x and y . Reject H 0 , very strong evidence of a linear relationship between f. p-value = .000 Reject at all , extremely strong evidence of a linear relationship between x and y . g. [24.60221 2.262.80451] [22.782, 26.422] h. [24.60221 3.250.80451] [21.988, 27.217] i. sb0 3.43903 t 3.33 t b0 / sb0 11.46403 / 3.43903 3.33 j. p-value = .0087 Reject at all except .001, very strong evidence of a linear relationship between x and y . k. sb1 s SS xx 4.61521 32.9091 .80451 1 x2 1 3.9091 4.61521 3.439 n SS xx 11 32.9091 2 sb0 s 3.18 a. b0 7.81409, b1 2.6652 b. SSE 2.806, s 2 .100, s .316561 c. sb1 .2585, t 10.31 d. t .28 025 2.048 Reject H 0 , strong evidence of a linear relationship e. t.28 005 2.763 Reject H 0 , very strong evidence of a linear relationship t b1 sb 1 2.6652 / .2585 10.31 20 f. p-value = 0.000 < .001. Reject H 0 , extremely strong evidence of linear relationship. g. [2.6652 2.048(.2585)] [2.136,3.194] h. [2.6652 2.763(.2585)] [1.951,3.379] i. sb0 .07988, t 97.82 j. p-value = 0.000 < .001; reject H 0 . k. s sb1 SS xx .316561 1.49967 2585 1 x2 1 .2133 .316561 .07988 n SS xx 30 1.49967 2 sb0 s 3.19 a. b0 18.48751, b1 10.14626 b. SSE 746.76238, s 2 74.67624, s 8.64154 c. sb1 .08662, t 117.13 d. t .10 025 2.228 Reject H 0 , strong evidence of a linear relationship e. t.10 005 3.168 Reject H 0 , very strong evidence of a linear relationship t b1 / sb1 10.14626 / .08662 117.13 f. p-value = 0.000; Reject H 0 at each value of , extremely strong evidence of linear relationship. g. [10.1463 2.228(.08662)] [9.953,10.339] h. [10.1463 3.169(.08662)] [9.872,10.421] i. sb0 4.67658, t 3.95 j. p-value = 0.003; fail to reject H 0 at = .001. Reject H 0 at all other values of . k. sb1 s SS xx 8.64154 9952.667 .086621 21 1 x2 1 45.667 8.64154 4.6766 n SS xx 12 9952.667 2 sb0 s 3.20 a. 33.362, [32.813, 33.910] b. 33.362, [31.878, 34.846] c. 1 3.25 3.0814 .1583 Distance Value = 7 1.8407 [33.362 2.571.5363 .1583 ] [32.813, 33.911] 2 [33.362 2.571.5363 1 .1583 ] [31.878, 34.846] 3.21 3.22 a. 109.873, [106.7207, 113.0252] b. 109.873, [98.9671, 120.7788] c. 113 minutes a. 8.0806, [7.9479, 8.2133] b. 8.0806, [7.4187, 8.7425] c. See graph with Exercise 3.22. A vertical line at Pricedif = 0.1 will cross the curves at the points that correspond to the values for 95% CI (Part a) and 95% PI (Part b). d. s D.V . .0648 s .316561 2 .0648 D.V . .0419 .316561 99% C.I . is [8.0806 2.763(.316561) .0419 ] [8.0806 .1790] [7.9016, 8.2596] 99% P.I . is [8.0806 2.763.316561 1.0419 ] [8.0806 .8928] [7.1878, 8.9734] e. a) 8.4804, [8.3604, 8.6004] b) 8.4804, [7.8209, 9.1398] c) Use vertical line at Pricedif = .25 d) s D.V . .0586 s .316561 22 2 .0586 D.V . .0343 .316561 99% C.I . is [8.4804 2.763(.316561) .0343 ] [8.4804 .1620] [8.3184, 8.6424] 99% P.I . is [8.4804 2.763(.316561) 1 .0343 ] [8.4804 .8895] [7.5909, 9.3699] 3.23 a. 627.2630, [621.0544, 633.4717] b. 627.2630, [607.0322, 647.4939] c. s D.V . 2.7865 s 8.64154 2 2.7865 D.V . .1040 8.64154 99% C.I . is [627.2630 3.169(8.64154) .1040 ] [627.2630 8.8314] [618.4316, 636.0944] 99% P.I . is [627.2630 3.169(8.64154) 1 .1040 [627.2630 28.7738] [598.4892, 656.0368] 3.24 a. 61.380; 1.438; 59.942; r 2 =.977, r =.988 97% of the total variation in the starting salaries can be explained by the linear relationship between the starting salaries and GPA. b. t r n2 1 r 2 .988 7 2 1 .977 14.58 5 Since t.5025 2.571, and t .005 4.032, (Difference from 14.44 is round-off error. Need r 2 with more decimal places.) we can reject H 0 at =.05 and =.01 3.25 a. 20,111; 191.70166; 19,919; r 2 =.9905, r = .9952 99.05% the total variation in service time can be explained by the linear relationship between service time and the number of copiers serviced. 23 3.26 3.27 3.28 t r n2 .9952 11 2 b. 30.63 (Difference from 30.58 is round-off error) 1 .9905 1 r2 9) 9 t(.025 2.262, and t .005 3.250 Reject H 0 : =0 at =.05 and =.01 a. 13.459; 2.806; 10.653; .792; .890 79.2% of the total variation in demand can be explained by the linear relationship between demand and price difference. b. t a. 1,025,340; 746.76238; 1,024,593; .9993; .9996 99.96% of the total variation in direct labor costs are explained by the linear relationship between direct labor costs and batch size. b. t (Difference from 117.13 is round-off error) 119.48 1 .9993 t.10 t.10 025 2.228 005 3.169 Reject H 0 at =.05 and =.01. a. F = 59.942 /(1.438 / 5) = 208.42 (approximately 208.39, round-off error) b. F.05 6.61 .890 30 2 (Difference from 10.31 is round-off error) 10.33 1 .792 t.28 t.28 025 2.048 005 2.763 .9996 12 2 numerator df 1, denominato r df 5 Since 208.39 > 6.61, reject H 0 with strong evidence of a linear relationship between x and y. c. F.01 16.26 numerator df 1, denominato r df 5 Since 208.39 > 16.26, reject H 0 with very strong evidence of a significant relationship between x and y. d. p-value = .000; Reject H 0 at all levels of , extremely strong evidence of a significant relationship between x and y. e. t 2 (14.44) 2 208.51 (approximately equals F = 208.39, round-off error) f. t 2.571 2 5 .025 2 1,5 6.61 F.05 24 3.29 a. F =19919 / (191.70166/9) = 935.16 (approximately 935.15, round-off error) b. F.05 5.12 numerator df 1, denominato r df 9 Since 935.15 > 5.12, reject H 0 with strong evidence of a linear relationship between x and y. c. F.01 10.56 numerator df 1, denominato r df 9 Since 935.149 > 10.56, reject H 0 with very strong evidence of a linear relationship between x and y. d. p-value = less than .001; Reject H 0 at all levels of , extremely strong evidence of a linear relationship between x and y. e. t 2 (30.58) 2 935.14 (approximately equals F = 935.15) t 2 11 .025 3.30 1, 11 (2.262) 2 5.12 F.05 a. F = 10.653 / (2.806 / 28) = 106.30 b. F.05 4.20 , reject H 0 (df numerator 1, df denominato r 28) . Strong evidence of a linear relationship between x and y. c. F.01 7.64 , reject H 0 (df numerator 1, df denominato r 28) . Very strong evidence of a linear relationship between x and y. d. e. p-value = .000 and is less than .001, reject H 0 . Extremely strong evidence of a linear relationship between x and y. 10.312 106.30 t 2.048 2 28 .025 3.31 a. F = 13,720.5 b. F.05 4.95 2 1, 28) 4.19 4.20 F[.(05 ] df numerator 1, df denominato r 10 Since 13,720.5 > 4.95, reject H 0 at .05 c. F.01 10.04 df numerator 1, df denominato r 10 Since 13,720.5 > 10.04, reject H 0 at = .01 25 d. p-value = .000; reject H 0 because .000 < .001, extremely strong evidence of a linear relationship. e. (117.13) 2 =13,719.4 (approximately equals 13,720.5, round-off error) t 2.228 2 10 .025 3.32 a. b. 3.33 3.34 2 1,10 4.96 4.95 F.05 Using Figure 3.21, there does seem to be a negative relationship between temperature and o-ring failure. The temperature of 31 o was outside the experimental region. a. Yes, diet and type of exercise. While this evidence definitely indicates a potential link between smoking and lung cancer, a well-designed study will take into account other factors. b. The two slopes appear to differ. A statistical test is needed to show if there is in fact a statistical difference. It appears that the incidence of lung cancer increases more rapidly when one increases amount of smoking at low levels of smoking than when a heavy smoker does a similar increase. a. Yes, there is a linear relationship at .0002 because the p-value for H 0 : 1 0 vs. H a : 1 0 is .000196916. There is extremely strong statistical evidence. b. b1 35.2877 95% C.I. for 1 is [19.2, 51.3] Thus, we are 95% confident that a 1% increase in the percentage of minority population corresponds to an increase of between 19 and 51 in the mean number of residents per branch bank. 3.35 yˆ 2.0572 6.3545(1/ 5) 3.3281 3.36 Minitab Output 26 a. When x = 15, yˆ 10.004 And 95% C. I. for mean market return rate is [8.494, 11.514] b. When x = 15, yˆ 10.004 and 95% P. I. for market return rate of this individual stock is [-0.310, 20.318] 27