Detailed explanation of Jones (1965) 1 Outline 2 Notation 3 Basic relations 4 Equations of change (comparative statics) 5 An alternative derivation of the equations of change. 6 Factor intensities 7 Optimal use of inputs 8 Substitution between factors. 9 Endogenous technology 10 Magnification effects: 10.1 Rybzcynski Theorem 10.2 Stolper Samuelson Theorem 11 Demand 2 Notation L – labor endowment T – land endowment M – manufacturing output F – food output w – wage r – rent pF, pW – competitive market prices LM aLM w - labor’s share in the value of manufacturing output: LM TM 1 and LF TF 1 pM 1 LM TM is the matrix of factor shares in the value of output LF TF ij - share of factor i used in the production of good j. LM - share of labor used in manufacturing: LF LM 1 and TF TM 1 LM TM xˆ LF is the matrix of sector shares in the factor endowments TF dx - infinitesimal percentage change in x (rate of change in x) x M aˆTM aˆ LM aˆ aˆ LF , F TF - elasticities of substitution between land and labor in manufacturing wˆ rˆ wˆ rˆ and food. 3 Basic relations Technology is defined in terms of the amounts of land and labor used to produce one unit of each good: aij - quantity of factor i required to produce a unit of commodity j. So, aTF is the amount of land required to produce one unit of Food. The technology matrix is defined as a A LM aTM aLF aTF The dimensions of the technology matrix is (number of factors)X(number of goods). The technology matrix ties together the vector of endowments and the vector of outputs: M aLM a F TM 1 aLF L aTF T or L aLM a T TM aLF M aTF F The equation above corresponds to the following two input market clearing conditions (1) aLM M aLF F L aTM M aTF F T The two equations above just say that the labor and land are completely used up in production. 2 Perfect competition will guarantee that the prices equal costs: pM pF aLM aTM aLF w aTF r or (2) aLM w aTM r pM aLF w aTF r pF The input coefficients are a function of the input prices aij f w, r , i, j A micro reminder: unit cost minimization is dual to the profit maximization min aLM w aTM r aLM , aTM s.t.M aLM , aTM 1 or max pM M aLM , aTM aLM , aTM s.t.aLM w aTM r pM 4 Equations of change (comparative statics) In what follows we denote percentage changes in variables (also called rates of change) rather than changes in levels. xˆ dx - infinitesimal percentage change in x (rate of change in x). x Using percentage changes allows us for example to make judgments about the real changes in incomes. If the percentage increase in wage is larger than percentage increases in prices of all goods then the real wage unambiguously increases. Rates of change are also a natural way to describe a magnification effect, when one variable changes more than proportionately to the change of another variable. For example, output of manufacturing changes more than proportionately to the changes in labor endowment. Magnification would just mean that the rate of change in one variable, manufacturing output, is larger than the rate of change in another variable, input endowment. Difference in rates of change of prices is a change in relative price. The derivation of equations [1.1] through [4.1] follows the same steps. We will perform one derivation in detail leaving the rest to the homework. Let’s derive the first equation of change (equation [1.1] in Jones, 1965) by starting with the first input market clearing condition (equation [1] 3 in Jones,1965) which states that all labor is allocated between production of manufactures, M, or food, F: (3) aLM M aLF F L Total differentiation of the above equation gives us (4) d aLM M d aLF F dL A gentle calculus reminder about total differentiation of a sum: x y z dx dy dz Endowment of labor (L), outputs (M and F), and the input requirements ( aLM and aLF ) can all change. So the terms in round brackets can be expanded as (5) d aLM M MdaLM aLM dM d aLF F FdaLF aLF dF A gentle calculus reminder about total differentiation of a product: xy z xdy ydx dz Substituting expanded terms from (5) back into (4) gives us: MdaLM aLM dM FdaLF aLF dF dL Now we need to transform this expression from changes to the rates of change. First, divide both sides by L to get the rate of change in labor endowment, dL , on the right hand side: L MdaLM aLM dM FdaLF aLF dF dL L L L L L To complete the transition from changes (such as daLM and dM ) to rates of changes (such as and daLM aLM dM respectively) we divide and multiply every term in the above equation by the necessary M variable. We also drop the brackets at this time. MdaLM aLM aLM dM M FdaLF aLF aLF dF F dL L aLM L M L aLF L F L Rearranging multipliers in the above equation produces a slightly better looking expression (6) aLM M daLM aLM M dM L aLM L M aLF F daLF aLF F dF dL L aLF L F L Every term on the left hand side consists of two parts: (a) share of industry in the labor endowment and (b) rate of change. Take the first term 4 aLM M daLM L aLM Consider each of the two parts of this term: (a) The first part of this term is aLM M . The numerator, aLM M , is the amount of labor used in the L production of manufactures: amount of labor amount of labor amount used in the production used to produce of one unit of food food of food aLM F The denominator is the amount of labor, so that the ratio is the share of labor used in the production of food. Denote it as LM aLM M . More generally L ij - share of factor i used in the production of good j. Note that the relative endowment is bounded by the ratio of inputs in both industries LF L LM TF T TM da (b) The second part of the term is LM aLM . This is the rate of change in aLM . Denote rates of change in a variable with a hat over that variable: aˆ LM daLM dM , Mˆ etc. M aLM Now equation (6) can be rewritten as LM aˆLM LM Mˆ LF aˆLF LF Fˆ Lˆ rearranging the above equation produces equation (1.1) from Jones (1965) LM Mˆ LF Fˆ Lˆ LM aˆLM LF aˆLF Following a similar procedure we can derive the rest of the equations. 5. An alternative derivation of the equations of change 5 There is a more elegant alternative to derive the rate of change which makes use of some properties of total differentiation in terms of rate of change. These properties are outlined in the “gentle calculus reminders” below. Start from the same labor market clearing condition aLM M aLF F L Using the rule below totally differentiate the equation in terms of rate of change (7) aLM M d aLM M aLF F d aLF F dL L aLM M L aLF F L A gentle calculus reminder: x y z x dx y dy dz . A useful interpretation of this x y x x y y z relation is that the partial elasticity (holding y constant) of the sum, which is z, with respect to one of the summands, say x, is the share of x in z. Two intuitive examples: (1) if every part of some total increases by the same percentage the total will increase by the same percentage; (2) if one percent of a total doubles, increases by 100%, the total will increase only by 1%. Convince yourself, take 2+3=5, 3 is 60% of the total, a 20% increase in 3 should increase the total by 20%x60%=12%. Does it? The rates of changes on the left hand side can be further decomposed as (8) d aLM M daLM dM aLM M aLM M d aLF F daLF dF aLF F aLF F A gentle calculus reminder: xy z dz dx dy . A percentage change in a multiplier changes the z x y product the same percentage. Convince yourself, take 20x5=100, if 5 increases by 20% to 6 the product will increase by 20% as well: 20x5x1.2=120 Proof. 1) Total differentiation yields: ydx xdy dz . Divide both sides by z: we get ydx xdy dz . Since z xy , z z z ydx xdy ydx xdy dx dy dz . z z xy xy x y z 2) Another way to show the above rule of differentiation in terms of rate of change is to use logdifferentiation. Taking natural logarithms of each side of xy z gives us ln x ln y ln z . Total log- 6 differentiation gives d ln x d ln y d ln z . Remember that d ln x 1 dx dy dz dx . So, . This x x y z will come in useful later when we derive elasticity of substitution between factors. Substituting (8) into (7), using our definition of ’s ( LM aLM M a F and LF LF ), and denoting L L rates of change with hats we get LM aˆLM Mˆ LF aˆLF Fˆ Lˆ , which can be rearranged to obtain equation (1.1) in Jones (1965) Homework: 1. Using the same procedure please derive equations (2.1) – (4.1) in Jones (1965). 2. Rewrite equations of change (1.1) – (4.1) in Jones (1965) for the case of constant, Leontieff, input coefficients. The equations of change are therefore LM Mˆ LF Fˆ Lˆ LM aˆ LM LF aˆLF (9) TM Mˆ TF Fˆ Tˆ TM aˆTM TF aˆTF LM wˆ TM rˆ pˆ M LM aˆ LM TM aˆTM LF wˆ TF rˆ pˆ F LF aˆ LF TF aˆTF Where LM aLM w - labor’s share in the value of manufacturing output pM To gain some intuition for the equations of change consider a graphical representation of change in endowment. First, consider the change in factor allocation. Note that the length of the factor usage vectors connecting the origin with the endowment point is proportional to the output. When endowment of labor increases (from E to E’) and the input coefficients do not change the output of M increases and the output of F decreases. This can be seen by reduced length of a the factor use vector (parallel to F through E’). The change in outputs does not have to be so dramatic if the input requirements change (both industries will use more labor). The length of the factor use vector sloped F’ that goes through E’ increases as the slope increases from F to F’. 7 Intuition behind LM Mˆ LF Fˆ Lˆ aˆLM LM aˆLF LF L M’ M E’ F’ F LF L E LM L T Second, consider the zero profit condition. ˆ TM rˆ pˆ M LM aˆLM TM aˆTM Intuition behind LM w L T As a reminder, full employment of labor and land implies 8 aLM M aLF F L aTM M aTF F T dividing each equation by the left hand side and using definition of ’s give us (10) LM LF 1 TM TF 1 Zero profit conditions imply aLM w aTM r pM aLF w aTF r pF dividing each equation by the left hand side and using definition of ’s give us (11) LM TM 1 LF TF 1 6 Factor intensities Factor intensities distinguish the two industries. Manufacturing is arbitrarily chosen to be labor intensive. It means that the amount of labor relative to the amount of land is greater in manufacturing: (12) aLM aLF aTM aTF One implication of the factor intensity is that labor’s share in manufacturing is greater than labor’s share in food (13) LM LF Proof. Using the definitions of LM and LF inequality (13) can be rewritten as aLM w aLF w pM pF Using the fact that under perfect competition the price equals cost the above inequality becomes aLF w aLM w aLM w aTM r aLF w aTF r Divide each side by the numerator 9 1 1 a r a r 1 TM 1 TF aLM w aLF w Invert the inequality changing the inequality sign 1 aTM r a r 1 TF aLM w aLF w Subtract 1 from each side, divide both sides by r , and invert both side of the resulting inequality w aLM aLF aTM aTF This is the definition of factor intensity given in (12), Q.E.D. Another implication of the definition of the factor intensity is that the percentage of labor force used in manufacturing must exceed the percentage of total land that is used in manufacturing. (14) LM TM Proof. Using the definitions of ’s the above inequality becomes aLM M aTM M L T Using factor market clearing conditions in (1) the inequality becomes aLM M aTM M aLM M aLF F aTM M aTF F Divide each side by the numerator, invert the obtained inequality, subtract 1 from both sides, divide both sides by a F , and multiply both sides by LM M aTF a F a F a a a a a a a a 1 1 ; 1 LF 1 TF ; LF LM TF LM ; LF LM TF LM ; a F a F aLM M aTM M aLM aTF aTM aTF aLM aTF aTM aTF 1 LF 1 TF aLM M aTM M aLF aLM aTF aTM The last equation is the definition of factor intensity in (12), Q.E.D. This result looks very intuitive on the graph 10 M L 45o-line F LF E=1 LM T TM The implications of the factors intensity can be also summarized in the matrix form. Define two matrices LM TM LF TF and LM TM LF TF The determinants of both matrices is given by LMTF LFTM and LM TF LF TM Applying restrictions imposed by factor clearing and perfect competition in equations (10) and (11). The determinants can be simplified to LM 1 LF LFTM (15) LM LF LM TM LM LF and LM 1 TM LF TM (16) LM TM LM LF LM TM Both determinants are positive by the inequalities (13) and (14) implied by factor intensity. 11 7 Optimal use of inputs Producers take prices of inputs and prices of the outputs as given and chooses inputs in such combination that the unit cost is minimized (the first derivative is equal to zero). d waLM raTM 0 waLM raTM d waLF raTF 0 waLF raTF Zero profit condition guarantees that the denominator of each equation equals the price. The two equations above can be further transformed (see the previous gentle calculus reminders) d waLM raTM waLM d waLM raTM d raTM waLM raTM pM waLM pM raTM d waLF raTF waLF d waLF raTF d raTF waLF raTF pF waLF pF raTF Using our definitions of ’s and noting that the rate of change in waLF is equal to the rate of change in aLF (because w is taken as given) we get two equations that describe optimal input requirements (17) LM aˆ LM TM aˆTM 0 LF aˆLF TF aˆTF 0 The two equations above correspond to equations (6) and (7) in Jones (1965). Alternatively, equations (17) could have been obtained from the equations of change in (9) by noting that for a price taking producer it is always the case that pˆ M pˆ F wˆ rˆ 0 8 Substitution between factors. The elasticity of substitution between factors is a measure of responsiveness of the amounts of factors used in the production to the changes in input prices. Elasticity of 2 means that if the price of 12 labor increases by 2% the labor to land ratio will decrease by 4%. The elasticity of substitution between land and labor can be defined in one of two equivalent ways (the definition for Food is obviously the same): M a d TM w a LM r aTM w d aLM r M or a d ln TM aLM w d ln r These expressions can be now expressed in rates of change. A gentle detour: A rate of change in a fraction is the difference between rates of change in the numerator and the rate of change in the denominator y dx dy d x x x y y Proof. There are two ways to see it. y dxy xdyy dx y xdy y dx dy d x 1) x y 2 x y y x y2 x x y 2) The second method uses log differentiation (recall d ln x dx ) x y d ln x d ln x d ln y dx dy d x x y y x y The elasticity of substitution between inputs in both industries are given by (18) M aˆTM aˆ LM wˆ rˆ and F aˆTF aˆ LF wˆ rˆ Intuitively, these elasticities determine the shape of the isoquants 13 Perfect substitutes: M Perfect complements: M 0 TM TM Cobb-Douglas: M 1 TM LM LM LM Homework: 1. What is the elasticity of substitution for a Cobb-Douglass production function given by M LM TM1 , 0,1 where subscript M denotes the amount of factor used in the production of manufacturing output? 2. What is this elasticity for a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function given by the following expression? 1 M M L 1 T M where 1 - to guarantee convex isoquants 1 1 - because is a share parameter A useful reminder: notice that Leontief (inputs are perfect complements), Cobb-Douglas (input cost chares are constant), and linear (inputs are perfect substitutes) production functions are all special cases of the CES production function: If 1 then M LM 1 TM If 0 then M LM TM1 (this could be shown using L’Hopital’s rule, see below) If 0 then M min LM , TM (this also can be shown applying L’Hopital’s rule) 14 These properties of the CES production (and similarly utility) function often come in useful in trade models. L’Hopital’s Rule is useful to calculate limits of indeterminate expressions. If lim f x lim g x 0 x c or lim f x lim g x then lim x c x c x c x c f x f x lim . g x x c g x Application #1: Let’s apply this rule to the CES production function to show that Cobb-Douglas is a special case. First take natural logarithms of both sides. lim ln M ln LM 1 TM 0 Notice that both the numerator and the denominator converge to 0. Applying L’Hopital’s rule we get ln LM LM 1 ln TM TM LM 1 TM lim ln M 0 1 lim ln M ln LM 1 ln TM 0 lim M LM TM1 0 Q.E.D. Application #2: Using the same procedure let’s show that Leontieff’s production function is a special case of CES. lim ln M ln LM 1 TM The numerator and the denominator both tend to infinity. Apply L’Hopital’s rule. 15 ln LM LM 1 ln TM TM LM 1 TM lim ln M 1 LM ln LM 1 TM ln TM LM 1 TM 1 TM LM ln LM ln TM LM 1 TM LM 1 TM 1 1 TM 1 LM ln LM 1 LM 1 TM ln TM 1 We need to consider two cases TM LM and TM LM . If TM LM then the denominator of the first term becomes 1 and the second term becomes 0. Similar is true for the other case. ln L ,if TM LM lim ln M M ln TM ,if TM LM or in a more familiar form lim M min LM , TM Q.E.D. 9 Endogenous technology Up to this point, we have described relations between variables and between changes in variables. In a way we have described the ways in which the economy will adjust to changes. Now we can combine those relations to determine the effect of exogenous changes on the model. Start by determining how the input coefficients change when prices of inputs change. Intuitively the adjustment of input requirements to the changes in factor prices has to be determined by two things: behavior of producers and technology limitations. The behavior of producers is driven by profit maximization in a perfectly competitive environment. From introductory micro we know that the producers set the ratio of marginal products equal to the ratio of input prices. The technology limitations can be described by substitutability of inputs. Proceed by combining the relation between 16 changes of input requirements dictated by the producers’ profit maximization (equations (17) which corresponds to equations [6] and [7] in Jones, 1965) and the elasticity of substitution (equation (18) which corresponds to equations [8] and [9] in Jones, 1965). Solve LM aˆ LM TM aˆTM 0 aˆTM aˆ LM M wˆ rˆ for aˆTM , aˆLM (the solution for aˆTF , aˆLF will follow a similar procedure). Express aˆTM from the second equation LM aˆ LM TM aˆTM 0 M wˆ rˆ aˆ LM aˆTM substitute for aˆTM into the first equation LM aˆLM TM M wˆ rˆ aˆLM 0 pull together terms with aˆTM aˆLM LM TM TM M wˆ rˆ use the fact that the cost shares add up to one, LM TM 1 aˆLM TM M wˆ rˆ The solution for labor input requirement in Food is identical ˆ rˆ aˆLF TF F w ˆ 0, Check whether these two equations make sense intuitively. An increase in wage rate, w will decrease the amount of labor used in the production, aˆ LF 0 . An increase in the price of land will have the opposite effect. The connection between the price of labor and use of labor is stronger if technology exhibits greater substitutability between labor and land (larger M ). Notice that in the case of constant input shares (Leontieff’s production function, M 0 ) prices have no effect on the use of labor. Also, if labor takes a larger share in the final cost of production (smaller TF ) the responsiveness to the change in price is smaller because any change is a smaller percentage. Let me illustrate these points graphically: 17 The effect of an increase in wage: wˆ rˆ Unit isoquant TM Increase in wage pivots the isocost Isocost with w slope r aTM aLM LM Increase in the use of labor On the following graphs the solid isocost represents the initial situation and the broken line is the new isocost line after the wage has increased. The effect of an increase in wage for two different elasticities of substitution, M . TM Technology with less substitutability, lower M . The effect on aLM is smaller when inputs are less substitutable LM 18 The effect of an increase in wage for two different labor cost shares, LM . TM Technology with lower labor share LM . LM The magnitude of the effect on aLM is the same but it is a larger percentage change if technology uses less labor. Following the same procedure we can derive the effect of changes in factor prices on the use of land Homework: derive expressions for aˆTM and aˆTF . The effect of factor prices on factor is given by the following relations aˆ LM TM M wˆ rˆ (19) aˆ LF TF F wˆ rˆ aˆTM LM M wˆ rˆ aˆTF LF F wˆ rˆ These correspond to equations [8] and [9] in Jones (1965). Recall that in the equations of change in (9) the changes in factor prices, good prices, and changes in endowments were all connected by endogenous adjustment in factor use in response to changes in factor prices. Now that we know how input usage changes with factor prices (equations (19)) we can substitute out a’s from (19) into (9) to derive connections between outputs and endowments, and between factor prices and prices of the goods. Start with the equation of change derived from the labor market clearing condition LM Mˆ LF Fˆ Lˆ LM aˆLM LF aˆLF and substitute expressions for aˆ LM and aˆLF 19 LM Mˆ LF Fˆ Lˆ LM TM M wˆ rˆ LFTF F wˆ rˆ collecting similar terms gives us LM Mˆ LF Fˆ Lˆ LMTM M LFTF F wˆ rˆ The term in curly brackets has an economically meaningful interpretation. Think of an ˆ rˆ 10% ). increase in the relative wage by 10% (in the above equation it would correspond to w As labor gets relatively more expensive the producers of both manufactures and food will reduce use of labor at the rate equal to the elasticity of substitution, respectively, M and F . The percentage effect on the unit labor requirements can be obtained by further multiplication with the shares of land in the respective cost functions, just like in (19). So the terms TM M and TF F describe the effect of an increase in relative wages on the unit labor requirements. If we further multiply the reduction in the use of labor in each industry by their shares in the total use of labor we get a measure of aggregate saving of labor, keeping output constant, in response to an increase in wage. Performing the same transformations for land (the second equation in (9)) we get TM Mˆ TF Fˆ Lˆ TM LM M TF LF F wˆ rˆ To simplify notation introduce a variable for the terms in curly brackets L LM TM M LFTF F T TM LM M TF LF F Now turn to the equations of change implied by the zero profit condition. The price of manufacturing changes according to LM wˆ TM rˆ pˆ M LM aˆLM TM aˆTM substituting for a’s we get LM wˆ TM rˆ pˆ M LMTM M wˆ rˆ TM LM M wˆ rˆ which simplifies to LM wˆ TM rˆ pˆ M We are ready to summarize the links between variables. The following equations link endowments and outputs (20) LM Mˆ LF Fˆ Lˆ L wˆ rˆ TM Mˆ TF Fˆ Tˆ T wˆ rˆ 20 The factor prices and output prices are connected in the following way (21) LM wˆ TM rˆ pˆ M LF wˆ TF rˆ pˆ F There are several interesting points that have to be noted. First, note that equations (21) look the same as equations of change derived from the zero profit condition for constant input coefficients (Leontieff production), the last two equations in (9). What does it mean? It just means that the changes in the factor allocation exactly offset the changes in factor prices. Recall the logic of the Envelope theorem. When calculating changes in the optimized value of a the objective function with respect to changes in parameters one can disregard the effect on the choice variables (because the effect of those variables on the objective function is zero). Second, it should be immediately obvious from (21) that the factor prices are uniquely determined by the prices of output! This is the price equalization theorem. It also means that if the prices of the output do not change the prices of inputs do not change either. 10 The Magnification Effects Two relations in our model are particularly interesting. The relation between endowments and outputs (this would determine the pattern of specialization) and the relation between prices and returns to factors (this would determine who gains and who loses from trade). 10.1 Rybczynski Theorem At some unchanging level of output prices consider the relation between outputs and endowments implied by (20). Constant prices mean constant prices of inputs ˆ rˆ 0 w solve the following system of equations for M̂ and F̂ LM Mˆ LF Fˆ Lˆ TM Mˆ TF Fˆ Tˆ 21 Substituting for F̂ from the second equation into the first we get Tˆ LM Mˆ LF TM TF Mˆ Lˆ Solving for M̂ gives us LM TF Mˆ LF Tˆ LF TM Mˆ TF Lˆ Mˆ LM TF LF TM TF Lˆ LF Tˆ The term in brackets is the determinant of the matrix. Lˆ LF Tˆ Mˆ TF It might be useful to rewrite this equation using the property of ’s: (22) Tˆ TM Lˆ Lˆ Tˆ Mˆ LM The assumption of labor intensity of the manufacturing sector implies that LM TM 0 , see equation (16). Since ’s are defined as shares and cannot exceed 1 the determinant has to also be smaller than 1. LM TM 1 Solving for F̂ in a similar way produces (23) Tˆ TM Lˆ Fˆ LM It useful to substitute F̂ from (23) into equation (22) (24) Lˆ Tˆ Mˆ Fˆ Consider a situation when the labor endowment expands faster than the endowment of land. In other words the relative endowment of labor increases. This would mean that Lˆ Tˆ 0 and Mˆ Fˆ . In other words an increase in the relative endowment of one factor increases the relative output of the good that uses this factor intensively. It turns out that we can also compare the changes in endowments to changes in output. Rewrite equation (23) by adding and subtracting TM Tˆ in the numerator 22 Tˆ TM Lˆ TM Tˆ TM Tˆ Fˆ LM further rearranging and using the expression for the determinant LM TM gives us Fˆ TM Tˆ Lˆ Tˆ Since we consider the case when Lˆ Tˆ 0 , it follows that Tˆ Fˆ . Similarly, rewriting (22) by adding and subtracting LM Lˆ in the numerator of the first term Tˆ TM Lˆ LM Lˆ LM Lˆ Lˆ Tˆ Mˆ LM collecting terms, and using the expression for the determinant LM TM produces Mˆ LM Lˆ Tˆ Lˆ Lˆ Tˆ 1 LM ˆ ˆ L T Lˆ Recall that we started by considering an increase in the relative endowment of labor Lˆ Tˆ 0 . So now we have that Mˆ Lˆ . Combining all inequalities we get the magnification effect of a change in labor endowment on the output Mˆ Lˆ Tˆ Fˆ This is a formal statement of the Rybzcynski theorem. Isn’t it beautiful?!? Some special cases are illustrative. If the amount of land does not change, Tˆ 0 , then Mˆ Lˆ 0 Fˆ . In other words any change in a factor endowment not only shifts the relative outputs, Mˆ Fˆ , but also reduces the output of the good that does not use the factor intensively. Intuition checkpoint: What would be different if production of Food did not require labor at all? Describe changes in output of food and manufacturing. Answer: It means that LF 1 LM 0 , it implies that Mˆ Lˆ . In other words the change in labor endowment will increase the output of the labor intensive manufacturing at the same rate. The only way it is possible is by attracting away some capital so that 0 Tˆ 23 To get an intuitive feel for the Rybzcynski theorem. Let’s demonstrate this effect on a standard production possibilities frontier (PPF). An increase in the amount of labor expands the PPF more proportionately in the direction of the labor intensive product. Note that the PPF expands in both directions because the economy can produce more of both goods. It is just that most of the increase in labor goes to the manufacturing. Extra labor in manufacturing will require additional land and the only way to get is to take it away from production of food. M F 10.2 Stolper Samuelson Theorem Now turn to the changes in prices and their relation to the factor returns. Trade policy often works through affecting prices. Trade liberalization lowers the price of the goods that can be produced cheaper at the foreign countries. Start by solving (21) for ŵ and r̂ as a function of changes in prices pˆ M and pˆ F . We will make use of the previously derived implication of the factor intensity: LMTF TMLF LM LF 0 . Also, recall that since ‘s are the cost shares they have to add to 1 for each industry: LM TM LF TF 1 . LM wˆ TM rˆ pˆ M LF wˆ TF rˆ pˆ F Substitute for r̂ from the first equation into the second 24 LF wˆ TF pˆ M LM wˆ TM pˆ F Collect the terms with ŵ on the right hand side TF pˆ M TM pˆ F wˆ TFLM TM LF Use the definition of the determinant of the matrix, LMTF TM LF (25) wˆ TF pˆ M TM pˆ F Using the fact that the cost shares add to 1, equation (25) can be rewritten as (26) wˆ LM pˆ F LF pˆ M pˆ M pˆ F The same steps can be performed to solve for r̂ . Substitute for ŵ into the first equation pˆ F TF rˆ LM LF TM rˆ pˆ M Transform, collect terms with r̂ , use the definition of the determinant of the matrix. (27) rˆ LM pˆ F LF pˆ M Notice that the first term in equation (26) above is r̂ , so that (28) wˆ rˆ pˆ M pˆ F Consider an increase in the relative price of manufacturing, the labor intensive sector pˆ M pˆ F 0 From (28) we immediately get that wˆ rˆ That is the increase in the relative price of manufacturing increases relative returns to labor. This conclusion is not sufficient to determine the effect on real returns. Changes in returns relative to changes in prices of the final good. Rewrite (26) by adding and subtracting LM pˆ M in the numerator of the first term. wˆ LM pˆ F LF pˆ M LM pˆ M LM pˆ M pˆ M pˆ F Recall that LM LF . 25 wˆ 1 LM pˆ M pˆ F pˆ M Since the first term on the right hand side is greater than zero wˆ pˆ M The increase in the price of manufacturing is multiplied in the returns to labor, which is used intensively in the production of manufacturing. By now we expect a similar multiplication to occur in the returns to land. Rewrite equation (27) by adding and subtracting LF pˆ F in the numerator rˆ LM pˆ F LF pˆ F LF pˆ F LF pˆ M As we did before, use the definition of the determinant to simplify rˆ pˆ F LF pˆ M pˆ F Since the second term is smaller than zero we conclude that pˆ F rˆ Combining the relations between changes in prices of goods and the returns to factors we get (29) wˆ pˆ M pˆ F rˆ This is the Stolper-Samuelson theorem. Isn’t she perfect? An increase in relative prices is magnified in the changes in returns. Consider a situation when the price of food does not change, pˆ F 0 . Then equation (29) becomes wˆ pˆ M 0 rˆ An increase in the price of manufacturing product increases the returns to labor, which is used intensively in manufacturing, and decreases the returns to the other factor. Why is the decrease? It makes sense intuitively, as the price of the manufacturing product increases the returns to labor increase because the value of the output increases but also because the marginal return to land increases in manufacturing attracting land away from the production of food where it is more efficient. 11 Demand 26 The last missing link in the model is the demand. We have discussed in detail the supply side of the economy without saying anything about the demand. Assume that consumers are all the same and that the demand is homothetic. Then the relation between the quantity demanded and prices can be usefully characterized by the elasticity of substitution between manufacturing good and food. The relative demands depend on relative prices, or in terms of rates of change (30) Mˆ Fˆ D pˆ M pˆ F Recall that when we discussed the connection between endowments and outputs (Rybzcynski theorem) we had to assume that prices stay constant because we did not know which adjustments will have to occur when prices are allowed to change. We can relax the assumption of constant prices. Subtract the second equation in (20) from the first to get. Mˆ LM TM Fˆ LF TF Lˆ Tˆ L T wˆ rˆ Recall that LM TM and that LM TM 1 LF 1 TF LF TF (31) Lˆ Tˆ L T Mˆ Fˆ wˆ rˆ Recall that during or derivations of the Stolper-Samuelson relation we have derived a relation between relative prices and prices of inputs. From equation (28) we know that wˆ rˆ pˆ M pˆ F ˆ rˆ into (31) to get Substitute for w Lˆ Tˆ L T Mˆ Fˆ pˆ M pˆ F Denote S L T This term is a measure of elasticity of substitution between commodities on the supply side. Substitute for Mˆ Fˆ from the definition of the demand elasticity D pˆ M pˆ F Lˆ Tˆ S pˆ M pˆ F 27 Rearranging and expressing the change in price in terms of other variables yields pˆ M pˆ F Lˆ Tˆ D S A change in factor endowment reduces relative prices of the commodity that uses the factor intensively. Plug this expression into the expression for demand elasticity and we have a relation between changes in endowments ad changes of outputs (32) Mˆ Fˆ Lˆ Tˆ D D S The relation between output and endowments depend on the relative size of the supply and demand elasticities of substitution. The relation between output and endowments with unchanging prices can be shown on the following graph Production Possibilities Frontier Indifference curve between M and F M Equilibrium Isovalue line. The slope of this line is p F . Every point on the isovalue pM line is affordable to the economy that produces M A , FA and faces MA FA F prices pM , pF Additional labor will cause the following changes 28 M The isovalue line gets steeper, so the relative price of food increases. F Consider two extreme cases of (32). First, when the goods are perfect complements, D 0 , relative quantity of the goods does not change Mˆ Fˆ 0 when endowments change. For illustrative purposes consider the case when the two goods are perfect complements in ratio 1 to 1, so that the indifference map consists of the indifference curves with the kink moving along the 45 degree line. M 45o-line Indifference curves when D 0 F Next, consider the effect of the increase in the labor endowment when the two commodities are perfect substitutes, D . Notice that equation (32) becomes Mˆ Fˆ 1 Lˆ Tˆ 29 The equation above is the same as equation (24) which connects the change in endowments to changes in output under constant prices. Indeed, in case of perfect substitutes the indifference curve has the same slope as the isovalue line for any bundle in the interior. So the graphical representation is the same as in the case demonstrating Rybzcynski theorem. M Indifference curves when D . The same lines are also the isovalue lines in the case of perfect substitutability between goods. F 30