LA Basin Study Office of the Chancellor Academic Affairs January 5, 2004 PowerPoint Notes Slide 1 – LA Basin Study Gary Hammerstrom conceived the LA Basin Study; and Frank Jewett generated much of the data gathering and local enrollment projections. The study was concerned with several issues regarding access to the CSU for high school students that live in and around Los Angeles County. The first issue centered on commute times. The two questions addressed were: 1) How many high school graduates could commute to a CSU campus within 30 minutes, from door to door. 2) How many high school graduates could commute to a CSU campus within 60 minutes, for door to door. A second set of concerns centered on where LA Basin students admitted to the CSU actually attend college. That is, 1) How many LA Basin high school graduates attend CSU campuses within or outside the LA Basin? And 2) how may new CSU freshmen at LA Basin campuses originated from non-LA Basin high schools? The last set of issues concerned the future enrollment demand for new freshmen slots at the CSU over the next twelve years. That is, 1) How many LA Basin high school graduates would be seeking CSU enrollment in 2010? AndWhat would the total enrollment for CSU LA Basin campuses be in 2010? Slide 2 – Population Size for 5 LA Basin Counties Area-wise, the LA Basin is defined as the following counties: Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura. It is home to over 16 million residents (I.e., 1,634,549 on 4-15-2000). About 9.5 million live in LA County and nearly 3 million live in Orange County. Riverside County and San Bernardino County have populations of about 1.5 and 1.7 million, respectively. And Ventura County is home to about 750 million people. 1 Slide 3 – LA Basin Population vs. California Population In all, the LA Basin contains more than 48 percent of the state’s population (I.e., 33,871,348 on 4-15-00). Los Angeles County alone represents 28.1 percent of the entire state, and the addition of just Orange County raises the percentage to nearly 37 percent. Slide 4 – Geographic and Demographic Indicators for LA Basin: 2000 The geographical area represented by the LA Basin represents just 22 percents of the State’s landmass; but most LA Basin percentages regarding the state’s college-age population or population pool for future college students approach the 50 percent marker. Thus the LA Basin is certainly a locale with a very high population density relative to other locales in the state. Slide 5 – LA Basin High School Map – 10 Mile Radius The LA Basin is the home of 8 CSU campuses and three off-campus operations (CSUSB’s Coachella Valley site is not displayed). These institutions provide local college access to graduates from the 586 public senior high schools and public continuation schools that also reside in the five county area as well as sending at least one student to the CSU between fall 1999 and fall 2001. The map displays the LA Basin high schools, the 8 CSU campuses, and 2 CSU offcampus operations. Circles that represent a 10-mile radius around each campus bound the CSU sites. Results from a recent analysis by the Orange County Metropolitan Transit Authority indicate that the each ten-mile radius represents the boundary for a 30-minute automobile commute to each CSU site. Slide 6 – 10 Mile Coverage of CA Public High School Graduates LA Basin A spatial analysis of LA Basin public high school graduates for fall 1999 to fall 2001 by institution of origin indicates that only 37.4 percent live more than 10 miles from a local CSU site. Fully 53.7 percent live with 10 miles of one CSU campus and 8.9 percent live within 10 miles of two CSU campuses. Thus nearly 63 percent of LA Basin public high school graduates live within a 30-minute commute of a CSU site. Slide 7 – Percentage of Graduates Within 10 Miles of a CSU Campus LA Basin The largest concentration of public high school graduates live within the 10-mile border of CSU-Los Angeles and CSU-Dominguez Hills. The smallest concentration lives around CSU-San Bernardino and CSU Channel Islands. Note: The sum of the percentages exceeds 62.6 percent because some individuals live within the boundary of more than one site. 2 Slide 8 – Percentage of Graduates Within 10 Miles of Just One CSU Campus LA Basin Here the percentages are restricted to just the 53.7 percent of graduating seniors that live within 10 miles of just ONE CSU site. The campus rankings by concentration are the same as before. But the greater gap between CSU Los Angeles and CSU Dominguez Hills indicates that more students with proximity to more than one CSU site surround CSU Dominguez Hills. Slide 9 – LA Basin High School Map – 20 Mile Radius Like before, the map displays the LA Basin public high schools, the 8 CSU campuses, and 2 CSU off-campus operations. This time circles that represent a 20-mile radius around each campus bound the CSU sites. Other results from the same analyses by the Orange County Metropolitan Transit Authority indicate that the each 20-mile radius represents the boundary for a 60-minute automobile commute to each CSU site. Slide 10 – 20 Mile Coverage of CA Public High School Graduates LA Basin The spatial analysis for the 20 mile radii indicate that 30.3 percent of graduates live within 20 miles of a CSU campus and just 7.1 percent live more than 20 miles from a CSU site. Thus 93 percent of LA Basin public high school graduates can commute to a campus within 60 minutes. Slide 11 – CSU Destination for LA Basin Public High School Graduates that Matriculate as First-Time Freshmen Between fall 1999 and fall 2001, more than 43,000 LA Basin public high school graduates enrolled at the CSU as first-time freshmen. More that four fifths of them enrolled at a CSU located within the LA Basin. Slide 12 – New CSU Undergraduates from the LA Basin Stayers and Leavers The population of new freshmen from California public high schools at CSU sites in the LA Basin is composed of the 78 percent of LA Basin stayers and some inflow of graduates from the state’s other 53 counties. The size of the inflow is equal to 10 percent of all LA Basin freshmen. Thus, in net terms, the LA Basis offers access to a population of freshmen that is 8 percent smaller that the corresponding LA Basin population. So, on balance, the LA Basin area loses more local freshmen than it receives from outside its boundaries. 3 Slide 13 – CSU Freshman Participation Rates for California Public High School Graduates: Selected Areas Between fall 1999 and fall 2001, the participation rate for freshmen from California public high school graduates was 10.5 percent. The comparable rate for the LA Basin was 10.6 percent. So the new freshmen yield from the LA Basin pool of public high school graduates is on par with the state average. A common way to project new first-time freshmen is to multiply estimates of high school graduates by observed participation rates. Slide 14 – Projected California Public HS Graduates From The California Department of Finance During the first decade of the 21st Century, the DOF forecast for California public high school graduates is continuing annual increases which average 2.2 percent per year (I.e.,7,500 more new student, annually). The annual average growth rate for the LA Basin is projected to be 2.9 percent and 1.4 percent for the rest of the state. So the Basin is destined to be the origin of more than 50% of all public high school graduates. Slide 15 – Projected California CSU First-Time Freshmen from California Public High School Under the assumption that the participation rate will average 10.5 percent, the forecast through the 2010-2011 college year is 1) The LA Basin cohort of new CSU freshmen will grow by an annual average of 525 students and 2) the rest of the state will grow by about 270 per year. So the LA Basin is certainly a geographical area with high potential for CSU growth. 4 Slide 16 – Los Angeles Basin Enrollment Projections Total Headcount Total enrollment growth for the CSU is of course more than a function of just new firsttime freshmen. Undergraduate transfers and new postbaccalaureate/graduate students are also major components, plus the resulting growth of continuing students that is a consequence of growing numbers of new students. The following estimates of the total CSU enrollment for the LA Basin were made from a comprehensive projection model that took into account all sources of new students, the re-enrollment patterns of continuing students, plus the inflow and outflow of new students from inside and outside the LA Basin. The projections were made before the recent cuts in state funds for higher education, so their purpose is to suggest overall growth potential in the absence of fiscal restraints. In terms of headcount enrollment from now till 2010, the average growth could range from about 5000 to 7000 new students. From now till 2015, the average growth rate could range from 3500 to 4500 students. Slide 17 – Los Angeles Basin Enrollment Projections Total Full-Time Equivalent Enrollment In the short term, growth in heads translates to annual FTE increases of 3600 to 5300 student enrollments. In the long term, that would be 2600 to 3600 extra FTES per year. Thus over the next 10-12 years, there appear to the potential to increase to CSU FTE enrollment in the LA Basin enrollment by 30-40 thousand students. Slide 18 – Issues for LA Basin Campuses 1) Greater campus awareness of local growth in high school graduates 2) Greater campus awareness of where local high school graduates apply for CSU enrollment 3) Greater campus awareness of CSU destination for local graduates that are admitted at multiple CSU campuses 4) Integrated enrollment planning by LA Basin campuses for managing local 5County enrollment growth 5 Slide 19 – Los Angeles Basin Enrollment FTE Projections and Planning Targets for Total Enrollment Each year campuses independently generate FTE enrollment projections for their own sites. They are called academic year planning targets. The latest series of planning targets for LA Basin campuses are graphed along side the upper and lower limit FTE projections for the same campus. The planning target total starts a little higher than the projections, but they merge with the upper limit projection in 2010. If LA Basin campuses developed an integrated plan for annual enrollment targets, then the sum of campus planning targets would fall between the boundaries of the lower and upper limit of projected enrollment demand. Slide 20, 21, 22 – Summary • • 1) more than 60 percent of LA Basin public high school graduates reside within a 30 minute commute of a CSU campus 2) another 30 percent of LA Basin public high school graduates reside within a 60 minute commute of a CSU campus • 3) more than 80 percent of LA Basin high school students that also enroll as CSU firsttime freshmen attend LA Basin universities • 4) The number of public high school students from outside the LA Basin that enroll at CSU campuses inside the LA Basin is equivalent to 10 percent of all LA Basin high school graduates that become new CSU freshmen • 5) The yearly cohort of new CSU freshmen originating at LA Basin high schools could rise from 16,000 to 21,000 between 2003 and 2010 • 6) The total FTE enrollment for LA Basin CSU campuses could rise from 130,000 to 170,000 between 2003 and 2010 (the lower limit projection for 2010 is 150,000) 6