For Official Use STD/NA(2001)4 Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 03-Sep-2001 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ English - Or. English _____________ STATISTICS DIRECTORATE STD/NA(2001)4 For Official Use National Accounts THE TREATMENT OF SOFTWARE - INCLUSION IN CAPITAL FORMATION AND TREATMENT OF R & D PERFORMED IN CONNECTION WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOFTWARE Soli Peleg and Pablo Mandler - Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel Agenda item 9 Chateau de la Muette, Paris 9-12 October 2001 Beginning at 9:30 a.m. on the first day English - Or. English JT00111971 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format STD/NA(2001)4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................3 Relations between R&D and software .........................................................................................................3 Software as work in progress .......................................................................................................................4 Measurement problems ................................................................................................................................4 Possible solutions .........................................................................................................................................7 2 STD/NA(2001)4 THE TREATMENT OF SOFTWARE – INCLUSION IN CAPITAL FORMATION AND TREATMENT OF R&D PERFORMED IN CONNECTION WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOFTWARE Introduction In Israel estimates of capital formation in software have been prepared for the national accounts since 1998. The methods of estimation have been gradually improved, and for example last year estimates for production for own use have been added. The estimates for production of software in Israel for domestic use and for exports, which is becoming more and more important (currently software production amounts to 8% of GDP), have also been extended. Production of software and gross capital formation in software in Israel Production of software 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Gross capital formation in software (1) Million $ Million $ % of GDP Total 1785.6 2353.3 2928.3 4339.5 5100.0 8634.9 2.0 2.5 3.0 4.4 5.2 8.1 658.2 820.9 864.5 1074.9 1143.8 1408.8 Total as % of gross fixed capital formation Thereof: for own in machinery use and equipment 109.6 155.9 128.1 112.1 144.5 178.1 7.2 8.4 9.7 12.6 11.5 13.7 (1) Partial estimates - estimates are still under development During the development of these estimates a number of problems have come up. One of the important problems seems to be the thin borderline between R&D and software production. Another the treatment of software as work in progress. Below a description of the conceptual background, Israel’s experience with some of the problems is described and some tentative solutions are given. Relations between R&D and software Software is an intangible asset and the production of software involves “intangible” inputs, which may make it difficult to observe when the production process has started or finished. The production also involve many activities which may have characteristics of R&D. This is also the reason that the Frascati manual for measurement of R&D has devoted a special annex to problems software issues – problems of distinction between R&D and software development which is not viewed as R&D. In the SNA93 it was 3 STD/NA(2001)4 decided not to define R&D as a fixed asset, whereas an important part of the production of software is defined as a fixed asset, so a distinction has to be made even if in some cases it is difficult. The classification of activities does not apparently help to solve this problem. It seems that the ISIC category 72 – “computer and related activities” – covers mainly supply of software to third parties through consulting. On the other hand, establishments mainly generating original sophisticated software as a result of their R&D activity should to be included in ISIC category 73 – “Research and development”. Software as work in progress An additional problem is that the development of software may take a number of years much like the construction of ships and aircraft. If the activity, including R&D, involved in the development is not accounted for during all the period and the value of software only registered when it appears as a finished product, one might get fluctuations in GDP. For instance a new complicated software system in a banking corporation may be developed by the computer personnel within the corporation over a number of years. This personnel may have current assignments as well as work in connection with the development, so that all expenditure probably will be registered as production costs of the other activities. This means that no output of software or “work in progress” will be registered. When the system is finished it may be registered as GFCF in which case a use is accounted for, without the counterpart supply of software output. Of course in many cases the finished software may not be registered even then, which means some capital formation (and software production) will be missing. The SNA93 gives a conceptual solution for the treatment of software production in its different stages (SNA93 par. 10.102): “Work-in-progress consists of output produced by an enterprise that is not yet finished, i.e., not yet sufficiently processed to be in a state in which it is normally supplied to other institutional units. Work-in-progress occurs in all industries, but is especially important in those in which some time is needed to produce a unit of finished output -- for example, in agriculture, or in industries producing complex fixed assets such as ships, dwellings, computers, software or films. Work-in-progress can therefore take a wide variety of different forms ranging from growing crops to partially completed film productions or computer programs. Although work-in-progress is output that has not reached the state in which it is normally supplied to others, its ownership is nevertheless transferable, if necessary. For example, it may be sold under exceptional circumstances such as the liquidation of the enterprise.” Thus if the SNA93 rules of separate accounting for work in progress on software (or the R&D activities leading to software) are followed, no problem of underestimation exists. If software is developed for own use and directly registered as part of GFCF, care should obviously be taken to include its value in the output as output for own final use. One could however say that the successful outcome of R&D on software is less certain then the outcome of production of ships and aircraft, so that the treatment of R&D on software as work in progress and not GFCF in the early stages would be preferable, even incases where the R&D on software is sold in advance or produced for own use. Measurement problems The practical problems of measurement seem to be larger than the conceptual ones. Information on R&D in software is collected in R&D surveys, but may not be collected in ordinary industry surveys. Since R&D surveys often are performed by agencies not involved in the preparation of national accounts, it may 4 STD/NA(2001)4 also be difficult to integrate these data in the national accounts. There are 3 important cases where this may lead to underestimation: 1. Enterprises within the software industry may engage in R&D to develop an original sophisticated computer program later used for large-scale production. The finished product would be a fixed asset for own use. If no separate account is made for the R&D activity, it will not be registered as software production, and the costs incurred would be registered as current costs of the principal and secondary output of the industry. Since these kinds of enterprises have employees in computer-related occupations anyway, the use of data on these employees to estimate software production for own use in such enterprises may lead to errors. 2. Enterprises in other industries may engage in R&D to develop software for own use. If produced for own use and not accounted for separately as R&D or its software outcome, their production costs may be treated as the costs of an ancillary activity, in which case neither output on R&D nor software will be registered. Even if the recommended method for estimation of software production for own use is applied and data on the cost of high-level employees in computer-related occupations are used, some costs may be missing. F. Ex. the costs of personnel not in such occupations. It is well known that software is often developed by young “wizards” not having a full college education, but with special talents. 3. Start-ups may engage in R&D to develop software. If information on start-ups is collected these activities will probably be classified as R&D in the early stages and there will be no problem of underestimation. However, since start-ups do not register sales at the early stages, in many cases they are not routinely included in survey samples and there may even be a delay before they are included in the business registers. Even if all costs on R&D are included, the problem is to be able to follow the production process and to register the finished software as part of fixed capital. Business accounts in most cases will not include information on software produced for own use. When development of software is not defined as R&D as in the example with the banking corporation given above, the chance of missing the activity is even bigger. In such cases the costs of the development are registered as part of total input and the finished software may not be registered at all as fixed capital formation. Preparation of estimates of the value of software produced for own use might also be a problem. There mostly will not be a market price available, since the software produced is unique. In addition to the problem of underestimation of costs, estimates of price changes may be tricky. Problems of identification of software or R&D on software in imports or exports are also important. Transfer of software and R&D through the internet is very common, and is not registered in many cases. Due to the growing internationalization of production, in many cases software or R&D in software are also transferred between subsidiaries of international firms in different countries without being fully registered in the balance of payments. When the production of software itself is internationalized it may be difficult to know which part of production has to be attributed to one country and which to another. For instance the major part of a software may be developed in a subsidiary enterprise but patented by the parent enterprise. Even if exports between subsidiary and parent enterprise are recorded, the question is how the value of the production is distributed between the two, the enterprises tend to distribute the value according to tax considerations. 5 STD/NA(2001)4 Some multinational corporations may engage in R&D and production of software as well as production of a number other products. Especially in such cases the transfer of R&D and software may not be registered as exports. In some cases a whole enterprise is bought by a unit in another country to obtain the software developed within the enterprise. In such cases the sales of the software may not be registered separately, and it may be very difficult to evaluate the software included in the sale. Classification and measurement problems Measurement problems Classification Start-ups Software corporations Non-software corporations R&D on software Increase in stocks (work in progress) Start-ups may not be included in regular surveys May not be separated in business accounts May not be separated in business accounts Unfinished software (work in progress) for own use Increase in stocks (work in progress) Start-ups may not be included in regular surveys May not be separated in business accounts May not be separated in business accounts Unfinished software (production in progress) sold in advance to resident unit Gross fixed capital formation - - - Unfinished software (work in progress) sold in advance to non-resident unit Exports - - - Finished software for own use Gross fixed capital formation May not be registered in business accounts Gross fixed capital formation Sometimes the whole start-up enterprise is bought by another unit to obtain the software the sale of software may not be registered separately - - Exports Sometimes the whole start-up enterprise is bought by a unit abroad to obtain the software - the sale of software may not be registered separately - - Finished software sold to resident unit Finished software sold to non-resident unit Finished software transferred by subsidiaries (which do not use it) to non-resident parent corporation Exports - 6 May not be registered in business accounts May not be registered as exported output May not be registered in business accounts - STD/NA(2001)4 Possible solutions In Israel we have only started to solve part of the problems. Estimation of R&D on software in start-ups has been prepared separately using data on finance of software start-ups to create rough estimates of the activity of such start-ups. These activities are included in work in progress. When the finished products are sold – in almost all cases to abroad – the exports are registered on the one hand and a decrease in stocks of work in progress on the other hand. Production of software for own use has been estimated using cost of employees in computer-related professions. Since the share of software production is so important in Israel, better solutions are needed. Estimate of production in start-ups in Israel 4500 4000 Million dollars 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Questions on expenditure on development of software for own use including expenditure on applied research on software will have to be added to existing industry surveys. A solution to the problem of following the production process will also have to be found – perhaps frequent follow-up surveys will have to be performed. For start-ups special information has to be gathered through scanning of newspapers, tax registers and other sources on a current basis. Frequent comparisons with the business registers and survey frames will have to be made to check if start-ups are included, and if any activity is measured or imputed for them, and data for a sample of start-ups will have to be gathered to collect data on all costs of activity. Transactions in the balance of payments have to be analyzed in order to separate the value of software acquired in connection with sales of enterprises. It will also be important to check how these transactions have been registered in the counterpart country. Taking all the above mentioned special problems into account it seems that it would be useful to publish comprehensive international guidelines for measurement of software and possibly refine the international classification of industries by activities and other international classifications to facilitate measurement of software production. 7