The Population Of Bath and
North East Somerset in 2009
Release
Purpose
Status
Access
Issue Date
Project brief
Version 1.5
For Release
Final
Public
13/11/10
To provide an overview of historic and projected population
trends in the Bath and North East Somerset area to support
needs assessment and infrastructure delivery processes.
Author:
Bath and North East Somerset
Needs Assessment
Jon Poole
Research & Intelligence Manager
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The Population of Bath and North East Somerset in 2009
Executive Summary
o Mid-year estimates suggest that there were 177,700 residents in Bath and
North East Somerset in 2009.
o (This number is reduced from estimates produced for 2008 181,300
due to an improvement in counting methods by the ONS)
o The local age structure is broadly similar to the population as a whole
except for the 20-24 age range, which is over-represented.
o Bath and North East Somerset remains less ethnically diverse than the UK
as a whole, 89.2% (159,000 in 2007) of local residents define their
ethnicity as White British. This is followed by 3.9% defining as White Other
and 1.2% defining as Chinese.
Historic Change
o The local population has grown by 7.7% between 1981 and 2009 (from
161,000 to the current figure). This is greater than the UK as a whole, but
lower than the South West Region.
o This increase has been largely experienced due to ‘migration and other’
factors. In particular, the number of students in the two Universities
doubled between 1995 and 2009.
Population Projections
o The ONS project that the Bath and North East Somerset population will
increase by 12% to 198,800 by 2026.
o It is likely that this figure will change slightly following the
publication of the Core Strategy which will allow more accurate
estimation of the impact on housing growth on population change.
o This increase is expected to mainly be experienced in older people, in
particular the 80+ population is projected to increase by 40% from 9,900 in
2010 to 13,900 in 2026.
o The exact makeup of these population changes is likely to be
influenced strongly by the type of housing that is developed over
this period
o An above average increase is also expected in the 4-11 age range, which
is projected to increase from 14,500 to 16,900
Population Density and Distribution
o Bath and North East Somerset has a greater population density than both
England and the South West region.
o Locally there is an enormous variation in population density. Farmborough
Ward has a population of 70 people per square kilometre, compared to
6900 in Walcot Ward.
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1. Introduction
This report provides a summary overview of historic, current and projected
makeup of the Bath and North East Somerset population. The analysis is
principally based on Office of National Statistics (ONS) data and as such all data
is to be considered subject to their onward licensing agreements.
For further information, background data or methodological information please
contact research@bathnes.gov.uk.
Please Note: All information provided for population projection purposes is done
so for the purpose of estimating demographic change only and does not
represent formal planning policy.
2. The Population as a whole
According to ONS estimates, in 2009 there were an estimated 177,700 residents
in Bath and North East Somerset of which 87,800 (49.4%) are male and 89,900
(50.6%) are female. This represents a downwards revision from 2008 estimates
(181,300) due to improvements in the methods used by the ONS to calculate the
movement of international migrants.
% Population 5-year age groups - mid-year 2009
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
2%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2%
3%
3%
4%
5%
6%
6%
6%
7%
8%
7%
6%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
7%
7%
6%
5%
6%
10%
7%
6%
5%
5%
United Kingdom
Bath and North East Somerset
Source: ONS Mid-year estimates 2009 © Crown Copyright 2010)
Fig.1 - Population proportions by 5-year (quinery) Age Groups – ONS Mid-Year 2009, UK and
Bath and North East Somerset.
Bath and North East Somerset has a similar structure to the UK, however the
proportion represented by the 20-24 age range is 3% higher than the population
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as a whole. This increase is explained by the presence of two higher education
establishments in the area.
Table 1 – Ethnic Background – Bath and North East
Somerset (2007 estimates)
Ethnic Group
%
No.
White: British
89.2%
159,100
White: Irish
0.7%
1,300
White: Other White
3.9%
7,000
Mixed: White and Black Caribbean
0.5%
900
Mixed: White and Black African
0.2%
300
Mixed: White and Asian
0.4%
700
Mixed: Other Mixed
0.4%
700
Asian or Asian British: Indian
0.8%
1,500
Asian or Asian British: Pakistani
0.3%
500
Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi
0.2%
300
Asian or Asian British: Other Asian
0.3%
500
0.4%
800
0.6%
1,000
0.1%
100
1.2%
2,100
Black or Black British: Black
Caribbean
Black or Black British: Black
African
Black or Black British: Other Black
Table 1 demonstrates the
estimated breakdown of the
population by ethnic grouping.
The most significant non White
British population the White:
Other White Group, who
represent an estimated 3.9%
of the population, followed by
the Chinese Group, who
represent an estimated 1.2%
of the population.
Bath and North East Somerset
remains less ethnically diverse
than the population of
England, where 84% are
classified within the White:
British Group.
In addition these estimates of
ethnic background have
demonstrated an increase in
0.7%
1,200
ethnic diversity compared to
the 2001 census, where 94%
Source: ONS Experimental Population Estimates by Ethnic Group
(2007) © Crown Copyright 2009
of the population were
recorded as white British1 to
89.2% in 2007. The most significant increase has been experienced in the White:
Other White ethnic group which has increased from 4,265 (2001) to an estimated
7000 in 2007. This increase can be largely attributed to members of EU
Accession States.
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group:
Chinese
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group:
Other
3. Historic Trends
Between 1981 and 2009 the Bath and North East Somerset population grew by
12,700 from 161,000 to the current figure (A growth of 7.7%). This growth is
greater than the UK as a whole but lower than Regional growth. Table 2 and Fig
2 (overleaf). show that this growth has been focussed on the last ten years.
Table 2 - % Population change 10-year ranges, 19892009.
Bath and North
East Somerset
South
West
Great
Britain
1989-1999
1.3%
4.9%
2.7%
1999-2009
6.3%
7.2%
5.3%
Source: ONS Mid-year estimates © Crown Copyright 2010
1
Source: (2004) 2001 Census Standard Tables © Crown Copyright
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Source: ONS Mid-year estimates 1981-2009 © Crown Copyright 2010
Fig 2 – Bath and North East Somerset Population Change over time – 1981-2009
General Population change can be further understood in terms of specific
components of change, fig 3 demonstrates how births and deaths have
compared with migration and other change in influencing this change.
Source: ONS Mid-year estimates 1991-2009 © Crown Copyright 2010
Fig 3 – Bath and North East Somerset Components of Population Change over time – 19912009
In addition to these broad changes there are a number of other factors which can
be shown to have an impact on these population increases, in particular
European migrant workers and full time Students studying in Higher Education
institutions.
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3.1 Components of Population Change: Migrant Workers
Following EU enlargement in 2004, the ONS have provided estimates as to
inward and outward migration of international residents. Fig. 4 demonstrates
these trends between enlargement and 2009.
Net inward
migration
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-100
500
200
1900
1300
200
Source: ONS: Components of change – international migration© Crown
Copyright 2010
Fig 4 – International Migration inflow and outflow 2004 – 2009 2
Recent trends of inward migration peaked in 2007 with a net increase of 1900
individuals. This number has reduced significantly reducing to 200 in 2009. It is
likely that this reduction can be attributed in part to the economic downturn.
3.2 Components of Population Change: Students in Higher
Education
A further component of population growth is the increase in the student body of
the two universities in the area. Fig.5 demonstrates the total growth in the
number of students at the University of Bath and Bath Spa University 3.
Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency, 2010
Fig 5 – Total Student Body – Change over Time, University of Bath and Bath Spa University by
academic year
2
Please note: data are not national statistics and should be used for indicative purposes only.
3
Previously Bath Spa University College and Bath College of Higher Education.
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Between 1995/96 and 2008/9 the number of students in these higher education
institutions rose from 10740 to 21540 (101%). Students subscribed at these
institutions are not necessarily resident in the Bath and North East Somerset
area, however it is clear that at least some of the population increases
experienced over the reported time period are accounted for by this increase in
students attending these institutions.
4. Population Projections
Projecting the future population of any area is an inexact process. The ONS
produce annual projection information based on historic change which forms the
majority of this analysis.
Fig. 6 demonstrates a comparison between ONS projections and those where
limited growth is experienced
Comparative Projections 2009 - 2026
210000
200000
190000
180000
170000
160000
No growth
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
150000
ONS - 2009 mid-years
Source: ONS Population Projections 2009 © Crown Copyright 2010, Local Estimates based on GLA projections with 2009
Base – Bath and North East Somerset (2010)
Fig 6 – Comparative population projections – Bath and North East Somerset 2009 – 2026.
No growth and 11,000 projections based on extrapolated GLA projections, ONS
projections based on 2009 mid-year estimates © Crown Copyright.
Based on linear growth projections, the general population is expected to
increase to 198,800 (+12%) by 2026.
A note on household composition and population change: Availability of
different housing will have an impact on the changing population, however it
should be noted that it is not possible to know the makeup of developments in a
particular area until initial plans are submitted. For example, it is not possible to
know for certain the proportion of the area which may contain family dwellings or
residential care homes at this stage.
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In addition, local planning policy decisions will have a significant impact no the
potential supply of dwellings and thus place an external control on population
levels
The ONS projections provide estimates for a number of variables, table 3
provides a breakdown of certain key demographics.
Table 3 - Demographic Change by key groups – Bath and North East Somerset 2010 – 2026 –
000 population
2010
2015
2020
2026
% Change
2010 - 2026
Births
1.8
1.8
2
2
11%
Age 4-11
14.5
15.4
16.1
16.9
17%
Age 11-16
12
11.4
12.1
12.7
6%
34.2
113.8
34.5
116.7
36
118.1
37.9
120.5
11%
6%
Older People**
37
39.5
41.9
46.1
25%
80+
9.9
10.6
11.8
13.9
40%
Deaths
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
-6%
Under 18
Working age adults*
* M 16-65/ F 16-60
** M 65+/F 60+
Source: ONS Population Projections 2009 © Crown Copyright 2010
While the most significant increases expected are in older people, in particular
the 80+ population (from 9,900 to 13,900. A 40% increase), it is also notable that
the 4-11 age range is projected to increase by 17% from 14,500 to 16,900.
An on-line tool providing more in-depth analysis of this data can be found at:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/populationestimates/flash_pyramid/Subnationalpyramids/base.html
6. Population Density and Distribution.
Table 4 demonstrates that In 2009 the Bath and North East Somerset population
density the population was greater than that for both England and the South
West Region as a whole.
Table 4. – Comparative Population Density 2009
Area (sq
km)
Bath and North East Somerset
South West
People per
sq. km
346
514
23,837
219
England
130,279
398
Source: ONS Demography Local profile 2010 © Crown Copyright- experimental statistics not
formal national statistics4
4
ONS Local Profiles are available by download from ONS direct at
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/local-profiles/
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The authority-wide picture does not give an accurate description of population
distribution within the authority however. The ONS currently provides data at a
smaller geographical level for the 2008 mid-year estimates allowing for more
detailed analysis of the makeup of the local population.
There is a strong degree of heterogeneity in terms of population distribution
within the Bath and North East Somerset area. Fig. 7 (overleaf) demonstrates
these differences by local government ward. Walcot ward has a population
density of 6900 people per square km compared to Farmborough ward with a
population density of 70 people per square km.
In addition the ONS are now providing smaller geographical population
estimates. Fig 8 (overleaf) demonstrates the population density of the area
broken down by Lower Level Super Output Area (LSOA), geographies of
approximately 1500 residents and provides a more geographically defined area.
This analysis demonstrates an even greater variation, Bathavon North LSOA
(reference 6 on fig 8) has a population density of 41 residents per square km
compared to over 16,000 Oldfield LSOA (reference 68 on fig. 8).
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Fig.7 – Ward level population density – 2008 mid-year estimates
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Fig. 8 - LSOA level population density – 2008 mid-year estimates
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