Evaluation of Behavioural Additionality Concept Paper1 1 Introduction This note sets out some thoughts on the conceptual framework and survey design that could be used to evaluate the behavioural additionality exhibited by firms affected by science, technology and innovation policy measures. After a discussion of the definition of behavioural additionality, in the context of broader additionality considerations, the paper considers some aspects of firm strategy, and hence the dimensions in which firm behaviour may be affected. A third section considers the range of innovation policy instruments that may achieve such effects, with a particular emphasis upon R&D grants. The discussion moves on to discuss operationalisation of the concept – how it may be measured in the context of evaluation surveys with sample questions proposed. Finally, issues which could form the basis of a future research agenda are raised. 2 Definition of Behavioural Additionality The concept of behavioural additionality emerged as an observed phenomenon in early evaluations of collaborative R&D programmes when it was found that traditional formulations of additionality did not capture well the effects of programmes on firms (Buisseret et al, 1995). In simple terms the range of additionality perspectives is: Input additionality: a concern with whether resources provided to a firm are additional, that is to say whether for every Euro provided in subsidy or other assistance, the firm spends at least an additional Euro on the target activity. Hence this approach raises issues of displacement (see David et al, 2000, and Usher, 1994). The implication is that grants have to be targeted to activities that would not have taken place. This perspective dominates State Aids regulations and in particular the EU requirement that subsidy should not be directed at a firm’s “core” activities. This argument shows a lack of understanding of the role of R&D in relation to firm strategy (implying that uncertainty is lower of it is within the core business – not necessarily true for technological uncertainty at least) but demonstrates the importance additionality frameworks can have on the real world. Bach and Matt (2003) critique this approach by arguing that it rests on three assumptions all of which would be challenged within a structuralist-evolutionary perspective: o That there is a clear link between input and output if innovation activities; o Divisibility and constant returns to scale of the innovative activity; and o No difference in the nature of the output generated by public and private funding. 1 Based on a paper produced for IWT and OECD TIP. Thanks are due to Jan Larosse, Patries Boekholt and Wolfgang Polt for their comments on this draft. 1 Output additionality: the proportion of outputs which would not have been achieved without public support. This of course begs the question of what is an output – are we dealing with the linear expectations of papers and patents, or with effects such as sales of new products or applications of processes and services. While this counterfactual scenario is simple in concept it requires major assumptions about the connection between intervention and what is measured. Behavioural additionality: the difference in firm behaviour resulting from the intervention. The assumption is that the behaviour is changed in a desirable direction, though an evaluation should also be sensitive to perverse effects, for example encouraging firms to take risks that they cannot afford. Behavioural additionality has generally been ignored by econometric studies of the effects of R&D support which focus on input additionality, where estimates are made of additional R&D expenditure or output additionality, whereby firm performance is compared between recipients and non-recipients of public support. These are both interesting questions but in neither case is causality examined, nor is there an explicit or implicit model of how the firm uses public support. Such a model is integral to the concept of behavioural additionality. The behavioural perspective is multi-layered. At its simplest it is confined to the funded project and is manifested through questions about whether the support caused the firm to increase the scale of its activity in the chosen area, its scope in technological or other terms, and whether timing was affected (did the resources allow acceleration of development?). Questions on these issues have become fairly standard in evaluations in Europe at least. However, underpinning such questions are broader issues which raise the question of how support interacts with and affects the strategies and capabilities of firms. These link closely to the systems failure rationale for public intervention. In strategic terms typical questions might involve: Whether the support helps to overcome a lock-in failure by introducing a firm to a new or extended technology or market area; Whether the support is building new networks or coordinating systemic innovations such as those requiring establishment of standards, either between firms or between firms and the science base; Whether the support has incentivised the firm to acquire new competences, ranging from project management skills, through various acquired technological and market routines and capabilities, and possibly encompassing innovation and commercialisation capabilities (for example securing intellectual property or raising venture capital investment). Some further discussion of the topic has appeared in the literature. Davenport and Grimes in assessing the effects of company support in New Zealand found that the behavioural additionality concept provided an explanation for their findings. Managers and policy administrators, they argue, can exploit the occurrence of behavioural additionality to maximize the impact of a research policy, on the basis that modified behaviour is likely to strengthen a policy's latent ability to influence the 2 creation of output additionality. They conclude that managers and policy-makers should be identifying those interventions that lead to sustained improvements in managerial practice, and in firm competitiveness. The aim then should be to manage their diffusion within firms and throughout industries. Luukkonen has criticised the additionality concept on the grounds that it is insufficient to reveal the usefulness of public support. She cites empirical evidence to show that projects deemed as trivial by firms at the time of support may in the long run turn out to have been highly significant in their impacts, for example because they may build capacity in areas where firms have suffered from what Salmenkaita and Salo (2001) have subsequently labelled “anticipatory myopia” (a concept that related well to “technological lock-in). Against this criticism it may be argued that whether a project is additional or not is a separate question from that of the success of a project. Indeed high additionality may easily be associated with an increased risk of failure because the intervention has tempted a firm to move beyond its competences or to undertake a project which was more risky than usual. Both of these may be positive effects overall. There is also the case of high additionality where the policymaker incentivised the firm to move in the wrong direction because the policymaker misjudged the direction of technology or the market. Empirical evidence from Hervik (1997) in a study of successive policies in Norway found a clear trade-off between additionality and economic impact probably for the first reason given above. How can the different types or manifestations of additionality be reconciled with current thinking on rationales for innovation policy? The market failure rationale needs little explanation here. Following Arrow (1962) the argument follows the general line of positive spillovers, non-appropriability and uncertainty creating a situation in which there is under-investment in research (and by implication in other knowledge-based innovative activities) in comparison with the socially desirable level. As argued previously (Metcalfe and Georghiou, 1998) the market failure perspective has been highly successful in providing a general rationale for policy intervention but it is inherently unable to provide specific guidance on policy prescriptions. Lipsey and Carlaw (1998) in a study aiming to show that neo-classical and structuralist evolutionary policies lead one to different conclusions in a technology policy evaluation, engage in a discussion of how additionality (or in Canadian terminology, incrementality) would be assessed under each perspective. They argue that a neo-classical approach would insist at least on what they term a “narrow test of incrementality” being that “some technology is developed or installed that would not have been produced in the absence of the policy or programme under consideration”. This corresponds to output additionality as discussed above. They argue that the neoclassical approach could also go further to demand a test of “ideal incrementality” in which the policy is demonstrated to be an optimal use of government expenditure. This invokes a series of tests attributed to the Canadian economist Dan Usher: The project must be the least costly way to undertake the desired level of R&D investment; Social benefits must exceed the subsidy (including transaction costs, deadweight and other leakages); and 3 Discounted benefits must exceed discounted costs of intervention. It is clear that the information requirements of these tests far exceed what is likely to be available in any practical situation and may in themselves place undue transaction costs upon the subsidy. The crucial criticism which Lipsey and Carlaw make is that the structuralist/evolutionary perspective would apply only a “weak test of incrementality”, defined as “something the policy makers are trying to do has happened as a result of their expenditure of funds”. The difference from the neoclassical perspective is that, with no attempt at optimality, the desired effects are less clearly specified (to allow for inherent variability between firms) and the effects looked for include structural changes and enhancements of firms’ capabilities. For innovation policies such as R&D subsidies where the main aim is to provide resources to the firm it seems reasonable to expect both kinds of effect to be evident (the targeted product and the longer term enhancements). However, when we come to consider innovation policies which do not involve the provision of finance this distinction becomes crucial. Effects may or may not be intentional on the part of either the policymaker or the recipient of funding. It is also of interest to assess the persistence of such effects. While input and output additionality operate at a point in time, behavioural additionality effects may be expected to endure beyond the period of R&D and to be integrated into the general capabilities of the firm (Georghiou, 2002). Bach and Matt distinguish these dimensions of behavioural additionality by labelling them “cognitive capacity additionality” but the keyword here is capacity. 3 Firm Strategic Behaviour 3.1 Hierarchy of Decisions and Effects There is an extensive literature on firm strategies and their relation to technology and/or innovation strategies (see for example Tidd et al, 2001 for a review). From this some key elements of strategy emerge: Building competences Sourcing technology Leadership or follower strategies Managing assets complementary to innovation Protection of intellectual property For large firms there are issues of R&D strategy, location of R&D geographically, relations between corporate and business R&D, and increasingly managing external relationships with universities, start-up companies etc as part of the “new industrial ecology” (Coombs and Georghiou, 2002). While the majority of small firms innovate through their supply chain relationships, the behaviour of new technology-based firms may be different. Implications for strategy are discussed below. 4 Table 1 Levels and Sustainability of Behavioural Effects Strategy Short-term effect Project in new business area for firm New market alliance Prioritisation Project in new technology area for firm New technology alliance eg with user Operationalisation New project reporting procedures to comply with monitoring requirements 5 Sustainable Effect Developing capabilities in new business/ market Joint venture or supply chain arrangement SME shift from contract research to manufacturing Acquired technological competences Sustained technology alliance Acquisition of management capability for collaborative projects Table 1 uses a categorisation of levels of effect proposed by Jari Romanainen of TEKES, Finland. The idea is that the effect on behaviour could vary according to the level. Examples are shown. Operationalisation is interpreted as referring to management capabilities, prioritisation to project or technology choice and strategy to the overall direction of the firm. The distinction is made here between short-term effects, normally manifested during the life of the project, and sustainable or persistent effects which are acquired competences. In terms of identifying effects on firm strategies many possible dimensions could be identified, including: Knowledge acquisition Human resources Capital investment Market position Manufacturing or service provision Corporate responsibility and sustainability Considering each briefly: Knowledge acquisition includes issues of how R&D is organised within the firm, for example corporate versus business level R&D and linkages between them. In some cases corporate R&D is only sustained because of the cumulative effects of public funding. Locational decisions about R&D, including international ones, may be influenced by technology policies (see also human resources below). Increasingly knowledge acquisition has become a matter of managing external networks. With the growth of collaborative R&D, outsourcing to specialist suppliers and universities and the planned acquisition of start-up firms either on the market or through corporate venturing, we are seeing the emergence of an “new ecology of industry” (Coombs and Georghiou, 2002). Innovation policies founded in the systems perspective place a heavy focus upon the formation and promotion of the resulting networks and hence this is a fertile area in which to look for behavioural additionality effects. However, it is important to get an assessment of the values of the linkages as at one extreme they could be a cost rather than a benefit. Human Resources can be a direct aim of technology policy, as with schemes that subsidise the hiring of researchers, or an indirect result as in the case of a company’s researchers upgrading their skills or qualifications within the context of a funded project. Management skills can also be acquired as a result of taking part in a project. Examples from past evaluations include SMEs learning about control procedures through compliance with planning and monitoring requirements demanded by a funding agency, or large firms using international collaborative projects as a means of training managers in internationalisation skills. These acquired competences can be significant for future firm performance. A recent example from a PREST evaluation in Japan showed that a team which had taken part in a project did not develop anything of great value within the project but subsequently went on to apply their acquired knowledge in other more successful developments. 6 Capital Investment strategy is not at first sight a behavioural issue but it is possible that R&D support may influence the location of a company’s facilities or even an entire laboratory, with long term consequences for the region concerned and for the company’s future networking. It is also possible that support may induce a firm to acquire equipment that it would not otherwise have, and as a result move in a different direction or in some cases the same direction more quickly. Market Position is another area of possible influence. R&D may transform a follower to a leader, on the basis of new processes for example. The innovative project may also introduce firms to new customers or to new markets. These may extend to products and services other than those initially supported. Manufacturing strategy or strategy for service provision may also evolve in the context of public support. This could be directly as result of a process-oriented project or arise indirectly because the advance in a firm’s knowledge enables it to change its production or service delivery methods. An example could be increasing use of ecommerce to reduce inventories. Corporate responsibility and sustainability can be an explicit aim of a project or form a further type of externality. For example innovative activity may result in reduced use of material or energy inputs and in turn may stimulate a reorganisation within the firm to take advantage of this. An approach to measurement of behavioural additionality should consider the effect on these dimensions of corporate behaviour. 4 Innovation Policy Instruments 4.1 Introduction There is a wide range of policy instruments available for the promotion of innovation. A recent Report by an independent expert working group reporting to the European Commission proposed the taxonomy shown in Figure 1. From this it may be seen that subsidies or grants to firms form only one means to support firms. 7 The classification system developed for this study divides Direct Measures as follows: Direct Measures Demand side Supply side Finance Support for public sector research Support for training & mobility Services Grants for industry R&D Information & brokerage support Networking measures Systemic policies Procurement Regulation Framework Conditions: Human resources, science base, Regulatory framework (including State Aid, Competition & IPR, General fiscal environment In principle behavioural additionality could be expected to result from any of the measures but for the purposes of this study it has been agreed that during this phase of the work the focus will be on grants to firms. However, in several countries the same firms are likely to have benefited from innovation-support services provided by public agencies and possibly from demand side policies and targeted changes in framework conditions. For this reason it will be necessary to set the effects of grants in the context of other measures experienced by the firms (and of other influences that act on the aspects of behaviour that are of interest). A useful framework is to classify the policy types by the deficiencies they seek to remedy2. These may be summarised as: Resources: Where there is insufficient resource, usually money, to undertake the work, without public funds. This is generally the case for academic research and is accepted to be so for certain areas of business R&D which are highly uncertain and/or where social returns justify an investment which does not meet private criteria. Incentives: Where the scientific structures or the market do not provide sufficient incentives for socially desirable behaviour, for example academicindustrial collaboration. 2 For an earlier classification of European policies by this framework see Metcalfe JS and Georghiou L, Equilibrium and Evolutionary Foundations of Technology Policy, June 1998, STI Review No.22, Special issue on “New Rationale and Approaches in Technology and Innovation Policy”, 8 Capabilities: Where organisations lack key capabilities needed for the innovation process, for example the ability to write business plans or raise venture capital. Opportunities: This refers to the generation of opportunities for innovation and provides one of the main justifications of public science. Table 2 lists the main categories of measures available to policymakers, though it does not capture the variety which can be achieved through differences in application process and eligibility for participation, sectoral, technological or innovation phase specificity, financial conditions and intellectual property frameworks to name but a few characteristics. It also shows the deficiencies which particular types of measure principally address. Table 2 Policy Measures Measure Deficiency addressed Comment on Application Support for basic research Support for public research directed to industry Opportunities Resources Resources Incentives Capabilities Opportunities Directed to universities and public laboratories Support for training & mobility Resources Capabilities Grants for industrial R&D Resources Incentives Opportunities Fiscal support for R&D Resources Incentives Offer non-discriminatory finance for R&D either by volume or for incremental spend with no selection process. Equity support for venture capital Co-location measures Resources Incentives Opportunities Incentives Compensates for deficiencies in VC market. Particularly important in pre-seed and seed capital phases. Increase innovation through proximity of industry and science and critical mass effects. Include provision of facilities for company labs on campuses, and establishment of incubators, science parks and technology parks. Total amount of R&D taking place in such environments is Includes support for public sector scientific institutions with conditions attached to increase the benefit to industry eg prioritisation of areas of interest to industry, grants conditional upon collaboration with firms, arrangements for use of equipment belonging to either party, and incentives and awards for collaboration. Public laboratories carry out increasing proportions of contract research for industry, extending the range of industrial R&D and potentially bringing R&D to firms without the capability to do it themselves. As well as the basic production of graduates this covers tailored courses or graduate schools for firms, training in entrepreneurship and innovation skills, promotion of secondments from science to industry and vice versa, and employment subsidies for recruitment of researchers by firms. Gradual evolution away from support of near-to-market research, large firms and single company support in favour of support for SMEs and for collaborative, “precompetitive” R&D. Conditional loans are a variation on grants. Principal value in providing finely tuned incentives, for instance encouraging firms to do higher risk R&D or to perform it in different ways eg collaboratively. 9 relatively small but is important in terms of generating new firms that may subsequently grow large. Information and brokerage support Capabilities Opportunities Include support for databases of contacts relevant to innovation, advisory services, provision of information on technological developments in other countries, technology transfer offices, organisation of brokerage events, funding for demonstrators and for use of patent databases. Almost exclusively directed towards SMEs. Networking measures Opportunities Capabilities Procurement Incentives Opportunities Systemic policies Incentives Opportunities Include support for clubs which exchange information and for activities such as foresight programmes which aim to develop common visions around which future oriented R&D networks can be formed The situation when a public agency places an order to another organisation for a product or service that does not yet exist. This means that R&D and innovation need to take place before delivery. The procurer specifies the functions of a product or system but not the product as such. This measure is normally appropriate for large scale systems and hence large as well as small firms. Measures are also possible to stimulate innovative procurement between private organisations, as in a supply chain. Can attract new public resources into R&D and present firms with a guaranteed market, thus lowering the risks attached to their own R&D investments These policies, for example cluster policies, aim to stimulate interactions between strong concentrations of industries supporting each other. Enhancement of private investment in R&D through clusters comes through increased awareness and confidence among firms, lowering risks associated with innovation and providing linkage between global players and their actual or potential subcontractors, including those further down the supply chai n. 4.2 Grants Even within grant-based measures it is quite possible that the same firm will have befitted from multiple grants, perhaps from different schemes. Behavioural effects may have arisen from a specific instance or may be cumulative. A further distinction that will have to be made is which aspect of a grant influenced the firm and to what degree. A grant is more than a straightforward subsidy. It involves an awareness and application stage which may influence firms by calling to their attention the existence of opportunities or stimulating them to form a research project proposal in a particular way that may be influential even if they do not apply or do not succeed. This is particularly the case where close negotiations with experts representing the funding agency take place. The next step will be the award of a contract and the conditions imposed here also affect firm behaviour. For example it is likely to embody rules about collaboration and intellectual property rights. 10 Once the project is under way the influence upon the firm may result from monitoring and reporting procedures. However, the main impact is likely to arise from the content of the research that the firm is doing and the linkages that it forms with any external organisations either in project, or more rarely, in a programme context. Finally, the influence of the public intervention may arise from any post-project support measures that are available, including requirements to form exploitation plans, and the provision of assistance with commercialisation through, for example, advisory services which provide links to venture capital. A question that policy makers may wish to pursue is that of the relationship between the proportion or amount of public support and the influence on firm behaviour. 4.3 Other Policy Instruments The evaluation will need to be aware of concurrent policies that may have influenced the firm in the domain of the project. A recent evaluation of the innovation support system in Finland found that firms which use innovation support systems generally use the full range of support systems simultaneously and do not follow any linear or sequential model. Hence the grant application may have arisen from participation in a foresight exercise or as a result of advice from a business support agency. Training and competence acquisition measures may be taking place in parallel with the research and a firm in receipt of grants may also have benefited from help with access to capital. In more recent policies, the influence of support for clusters or technology platforms may also affect the type of behaviours and linkages of interest here. 4.4 Spillover of Behavioural Effects In principle, behavioural effects are liable to result in spillovers as good practice diffuses to other companies. This will be particularly difficult to measure but may be worth investigating further. 5 Operationalisation of the Concept This section gives a first consideration as to how the concept of behavioural additionality could be investigated. 5.1 Survey Objectives Questions on behavioural additionality are likely in most cases to be set in a context of a broader survey investigating impacts and effects, programme management issues etc. Some of these questions will be of shared relevance with the main issue here. However, the discussion below will assume that there is a “module” or separate questionnaire on the behavioural additionality issue. The overall aim of a survey is to identify the main elements of a company’s technology strategy and its linkages to business strategy and then, with this reference point, to assess the changes induced by research and innovation support measures. 11 5.2 Target Population The target population is firms in receipt of assistance, with the possibility that firms not receiving assistance could be used as a comparison group. However, it is unlikely that the same questions could usefully be asked of all types of firms. Hence, it is proposed that the firm population is divided into three hypothetical groups: 1. Large and relatively R&D intensive firms: In this case the supported projects will probably be small in relation to the firm’s overall R&D spending and the issue will be to examine strategic fit and the degree of influence. Technology and business strategy will be connected but can to some extent be investigated separately. A publicly-funded project is likely to be based upon motives of knowledge acquisition rather than direct exploitability of results. Case-studies are the likely implementation route. 2. Traditional SMES and medium-sized firms: In this case the project is likely to be significant in relation to the firms overall R&D or even innovative activities as a whole but possibly be peripheral in terms of current business strategy. It may be expected that projects here are more development than research-oriented. Projects are likely to involve an external provider of R&D or technical advice. Nonetheless there is considerable scope for behavioural effects, including the discovery of the potential of an innovative strategy. 3. Technology-based start-up firms: This group, if it in receipt of grants, is almost certainly using them to support its central business strategy. There is no separation between technology and business strategy and probably there will be only one R&D project (though funding may come from more than one source). One issue of separation will be between public equity inputs and grant funding, as both may be applied for the same purpose. The firm will probably have minimal routines and hence be highly likely to be influenced by external inputs. On the other hand overcoming systems failures such as lock-ins will be less significant as the firms are less likely to be “locked-in”. There is also an issue of which part of a firm or person in a firm should be surveyed. Some questions are likely to go beyond the capacity of a research manager to judge and would require a response from a business manager. 6 Future Research Agenda The preliminary thinking embodied in this paper raises many more issues than it resolves. In consequence an agenda for further research, beyond a current round of surveys and case studies remains which includes the following elements: Ethnographic Approach A more ambitious form of case study would be to track a grant through its life cycle with the aim of cataloguing effects as they occur by observation rather than relying on ex post hindsight. Extension to Other Innovation Policies and To Policy Mix Issues 12 When firms are in actual or potential receipt of multiple incentives and forms of support for innovation it is artificial to separate only one – the research grant. A future phase of the study should extend the behavioural additionality concept to other policies and to their combined impact. Certain types of policy (eg advisory and consultancy services) are explicitly targeted at behaviour of firms. On the other hand behavioural effects may interact positively or negatively between policies. Consideration of Negative Behavioural Effects This paper has mainly assumed that behavioural effects of grants are positive and intentional. There is also the situation where they are negative and unintentional - or even in some case negative and intentional. An example of negative and unintentional would be to lead a firm into an alliance which turned out to be unproductive and costly. An example of negative and intentional would be to persuade an SME to perform high risk R&D when it cannot really afford to do so and should be devoting resources to consolidation. Long-term Learning and Persistence of Effects Assuming that positive behavioural changes have been achieved, there is an interesting question on how these are maintained – what is the capacity of a company to retain learning in its routines. Does learning need reinforcement policies? Econometric Analyses Currently, econometric approaches are better suited to measurement of input additionality. However, when a clearer understanding of behavioural additionality is developed the possibility of statistical linkages to firm performance may be explored. Linkage to Work on Corporate Technology Strategy Understanding of changes in corporate technology strategy and the attendant processes is itself proceeding at a rapid pace, not least under OECD auspices. Closer linkage of this work with emerging findings from that activity could produce a better understanding of the interaction between public support and private strategy-making. . 13 References Bach L and Matt M (2002) “Rationale for Science and Technology Policy” in Georghiou L and Rigby J (eds) Assessing the Socio-Economic Impacts of the Framework Programme, Report to DG Research (in press) Buisseret TJ, Cameron H and Georghiou L (1995) “What difference does it make? 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