The Determinants of Corporate Governance and the Link between Corporate Governance and Performance: Evidence from the U.K. Using a Corporate Governance Scorecard Thesis Proposal by Luo Lei School of Business National University of Singapore 1. Introduction 1.1 Introduction Corporate governance practices in the U.K. have received increasing attention since the 1990s, with influential reports issued by the Cadbury Committee (1992), Greenbury Committee (1995), Hampel Committee (1998), and Turnbull Committee (2003) and Sir Derek Higgs (2003). These reports resulted in various corporate governance codes and recommendations, the most recent being the Combined Code on Corporate Governance, July 2003 (hereafter U.K. Code). In this study, we use a scorecard developed by Standard & Poor’s to assess the corporate governance of U.K. listed companies. It provides a comprehensive measure of the extent to which a company has adopted international best practices in corporate governance, as disclosed in their corporate governance disclosures. The evidence on whether there is a link between governance structure and performance remains weak. We argue that one possible reason could be due to the research methodology. Earlier research has examined subsets of governance mechanisms, usually one or two governance variables only. As the firms can choose and modify the structure of their governance system to suit their circumstances, we argue that we should examine a number of governance variables and over a longer time period. 1.2 Motivation of Study Some of recent studies have used a broader measure of corporate governance through a composite corporate governance rating, including Gompers et al. (2003) for the U.S., Klapper and Love (2004) for fourteen emerging markets, Durnev and Kim (2002) for twenty seven countries, Bauer et al. (2003) for the EMU and the U.K.. These studies generally find a positive relationship between governance standards and firm value. Baure et al. (2003) and other studies are based on ratings of one or two years only, assuming that governance ratings should remain constant for a number of years. However our data shows otherwise — there is a significant upward trend for the corporate governance scores over the time. Without time series data, researchers cannot study how firms adjust their governance structure over time, or analyze the causality between 1 governance and firm performance found in Black et al. (2002). A recent study by Leora, Klapper and Love (2004) find that differences in firm-level contracting environment would affect a firm’s choice of governance mechanisms, in line with arguments put forth in Himmelberg et al. (1999). However with only one year data, they are not able to control the fixed effects and to test the causality. Our study can make a potential contribution in this area by analyzing a number of corporate governance mechanisms based on time-varying firm-specific data. Using the methodology in Agrawal and Knoeber (1996), we examine the four mechanisms used in controlling agency problems — insider shareholdings, blockholdings, institutional shareholdings and leverage status of the firm. In addition, we also include a comprehensive measure of governance using a corporate governance scorecard and measuring governance over a longer time period. Our findings reveal an interesting relationship between governance and performance. It is the change of governance that determines performance rather than the governance level. We find that an investment strategy that buys firms with greatest improvement in governance and sells firms with largest deterioration in governance yields 36.7 percent excess returns over the sample period. Contrary to the findings in Bauer et al. (2003), we find that investors will lose money if they buy firms ranking highest and sell firms ranking lowest. 1.3 Objective of Study This is an empirical study on whether better corporate governance leads to higher valuation through lower expected rate of return. We investigate the interdependence of various governance practices, the change of governance structure and the impact on the firm value. 1.4 Potential Contributions of Study This study includes a more complete set of governance mechanisms including the composite governance scorecard as well as ownership and firm leverage. We control the firm heterogeneity with a fixed effects estimator and firm endogeneity with the simultaneous equation system. The margin effect of governance improvement is also a 2 new finding in research on corporate governance. 1.5 Organization of Study The remainder of this study is organized as follows: Chapter Two reviews the literature concerning to firm level corporate governance. Chapter Three describes the sample and data. In Chapter Four, Five, Six and Seven, respectively, we present empirical evidence on the determinants of corporate governance, and on the relationship between corporate governance and firm performance, and on its relationship with stock returns. 2. Literature Review 2.1 The Interaction of Different Governance Mechanisms Corporate governance comprises many dimensions. Based on the U.K. Code, it can be divided broadly into the role of directors, directors’ remuneration, the role of shareholders, and accountability and audit. Some of the structures are complements while others are substitutes to certain extent. The previous research has found different governance patterns. For example, Peasnell et al. (2001) find evidence of a convex association between the proportion of outside board members and the level of insider ownership in the U.K. corporate control process. Shivdasani and Yermack (1999) observe, using U.S. data, that when the CEO serves on the nominating committee or no nominating committee exists, firms usually appoint fewer independent outside directors and more grey outsiders. Similarly, Vafeas (1999) discover that the likelihood of engaging a nominating committee is related to board characteristics such as inside ownership, number and quality of outsider directors for U.S. firms. Board structure is an important governance mechanism. Kenneth et al. (1995) note the substitution effects between outside directors, blockholders, and incentives to insiders using eighty one U.S. bank-holding companies in his study. Both Dedman and Elisabeth (2002) and Young (2000) investigate the board structure determinants before and after Cadbury Report. They either find managerial entrenchment is reduced or non executive directors are increased following the imposition of new standards of “best practice” 3 regarding board structure. 2.2 The Relationship between Governance Mechanism and Firm Performance Our study builds on Himmelberg et al. (1999) who use panel data to show that managerial ownership is explained by key variables in the contracting environment. A large fraction of the cross-sectional variation in managerial ownership is explained by unobserved firm heterogeneity. Moreover, after controlling for both observed firm characteristics and firm fixed effects, changes in managerial ownership do not affect firm performance econometrically. In literature, many other researchers have examined the relationship between variety of governance mechanisms and firm performance. The results, however, are mixed. Some examine only the impact of one governance mechanism on performance as Himmelberg et al. did, while others investigate the influence of several mechanisms together on performance. None of them covers a complete set of governance mechanisms. Below, we will briefly review some of previous studies on the governance-performance relationship. (1) Board Composition It is suggested that higher proportion of non-executive directors in the board helps to reduce the agency cost. Kee et al. (2003) and Hutchinson and Gul (2003) support this view by showing that that higher levels of non-executive directors on the board weaken the negative relationship between the firm’s investment opportunities and firm’s performance. However, de Jong et al. (2002), Coles et al. (2001), and Weir et al. (2002) dispute it by stating that there is no significant relationship between non-executive directors’ representation and performance. In contrast, in the U.K., Weir and Laing (2000) find a negative relationship between non-executive director representation and performance. In addition, Yermack (1996) present that small board has a higher market valuation. Stronger support for the positive impact of non-executive directors comes from event study analysis. The studies by Rosenstei and Wyatt (1990 and 1997) and Shivdasani and Yermack (1999) show that the appointment of non-executive directors increases company value. (2) Leadership Structure 4 Although U.K. Code regards separation of the role of CEO and chairman as a sign of good governance, previous empirical analyses do not support it. For example, Coles et al. (2001), Weir et al. (2002), and Weir and Laing (2000) do not find any significant relationship between CEO duality and performance. Brickley et al. (1997) observe that costs of separation are larger than benefits for most large U.S. firms. (3) Board Ownership The findings of the primarily U.S. based literature suggest that management is aligned at low or possibly high levels of ownership but is entrenched at intermediate ownership levels (e.g., Morck et al., 1988; McConnell and Servaes, 1990). U.K. evidence confirms that U.K. management becomes entrenched at higher levels of ownership than their U.S. counterparts (e.g. Faccio et al., 1999; Short and Keasey, 1999). Hutchinson and Gul (2003) report that management share ownership and managers’ remuneration weaken the negative relationship between the firm’s investment opportunities and firm’s performance. In contrast, Coles et al. (2001) do not find any contribution to performance by managerial ownership. (4) Institutional Holdings As the U.K. Code encourages institutions to take an active role in governance, we may expect a positive relationship between institutional holdings and firm performance. Unfortunately, empirical evidence is not supportive of this recommendation. Both Faccio and Lasfer (1999, 2000) fail to find such a significant relationship for U.K. firms. Besides, de Jong et al. (2002) find that major outside and industrial shareholders negatively influence the firm value. (5) Committee Composition For U.K. companies, Conyon (1997) provides a thorough review of the workings of remuneration committees and shows that firms with remuneration committees pay directors less remuneration. Conyon & Mallin (1997) observe that U.K. firms have been slow in adopting nominating committees, a symptom of failure of the corporate governance system. By contrast, audit committee use in the U.K. has been widespread (e.g. Conyon, 1994; Collier, 1993). The results in Forker’s (1992) study suggest that the quality of disclosure is only weakly related with audit committees and non-executive directors. 5 (6) Managers’ Remuneration The empirical work shows that the role of managers’ remuneration in coordinating managers’ and investors’ interests is limited. Hutchinson and Gul (2003) find a positive role for managers’ remuneration, while Coles et al. (2001) do not. 2.3 Endogeneity of Corporate Governance Mechanisms in Firm Valuation Bhagat and Black (2002) find evidence that firms suffering from low profitability respond by increasing the independence of their board of directors, but no evidence that firms with more independent boards achieve improved profitability. Vafeas (1999) observes that the annual number of board meetings increases following share price declines. He further finds that operating performance improves following years of abnormal board activity. Some other studies are in the ownership area. None of them provides support to the governance-performance relationship. Oyvind and Bernt (2001) discover that qualitative conclusions are sensitive to choice of instruments. Demsetz and Villalonga (2001) fail to find significant relationship between ownership and performance. What is more, Cho (1998) concludes that investment affects corporate value and in turn corporate value affects ownership but not vice versa. Agrawal and Knoeber (1996) examine the use of seven mechanisms to control agency problems between managers and shareholders. These mechanisms are: shareholdings of insiders, institutions, and large blockholders; use of outside directors; debt policy; the managerial labor market; and the market for corporate control. The findings are consistent with optimal use of each control mechanism except outside directors. Closely following their approach, we construct a simultaneous equation system to investigate the influence of corporate governance scorecard on firm performance. Barnhart and Rosenstein (1998) investigate the combined effect of ownership structure and board composition on corporate performance. The results indicate that managerial ownership, board composition, and Tobin’s Q are jointly determined. Vafeas and Theodorou (1998) examine a broad group of board structure variables for U.K. firms. Contrary to expectations, the results reveal an insignificant relationship between board 6 structure (percentage of non-executive directors, leadership structure, board ownership and committee composition) and firm performance. 2.4 Corporate Governance Scorecard in Examining Stock return, Firm value and Performance Other than focusing on one or two separate variables for corporate control, recently there has been increasing number of studies that employ corporate governance scorecard as a comprehensive measure to examine the agency problem. It has the advantage to implicitly incorporate either the substitutive or complementary effect of variety of governance practices into one study. The empirical literature on the relationship between firm value and corporate governance scorecard usually analyzes either inter-country difference or inter-firm variation within a country. The most prominent example of studies on inter-country difference is LaPorta et al. (2002), who investigate differences in governance standards among twenty seven countries. Their evidence shows that firms incorporated in countries with better governance standards tend to have higher valuations. Examples of studies investigating inter-firm variation within one country are Drobetz et al. (2003) for Germany, Gompers et al. (2003) and Marry and Stangeland (2003) for the U.S., Klapper and Love (2004) for fourteen emerging markets, Durnev and Kim (2002) for twenty seven countries, Bauer et al. (2003) for the EMU and the U.K., Black et al. (2002) for Korea, Black (2001) for Russia, and Callahan et al. (2003) for Fortune 1000 firms. The results appear to confirm a positive relationship between governance standards and firm value. More importantly, the relationship seems to be stronger in countries with less developed standards. To the best of our knowledge, Klapper and Love (2004) and Durnev and Kim (2002) are the only two research that investigate the determinants of corporate governance scorecard. Overall Klapper and Love (2004) find that firm-level governance is correlated with firm size, sales growth and assets composition. Moreover, they report that good governance is positively correlated with market valuation and operating performance. Simliarly, Durnev and Kim (2002) report higher disclosure level and in turn higher market valuation for firms with greater growth opportunities, greater needs for external financing, and more concentrated cash flow rights. Our study differs from theirs in the 7 following ways: Firstly, we use time-varying governance scorecard to control unobserved firm heterogeneity with fixed effects. Secondly, we broaden governance measurements with governance scorecard as well as shareholding variables. Finally, we explicitly put governance mechanisms into a simultaneous equation system to address the endogeneity problem. Among the inter-firm variation studies, Gompers et al. (2003), Marry and Stangeland (2003), Klapper and Love (2004), and Bauer et al. (2003) examine the impact of the governance standards on firm performance approximated by profitability ratios as well. All of them document a positive relationship between governance scorecard and performance except for Bauer et al. (2003) who surprisingly detect a significant negative relationship. When set up a zero investment portfolio, investors can earn abnormal returns by buying firms from higher level corporate governance group and short-selling those from lower level corporate governance group (Gompers et al., 2003; Drobetz et al., 2003; Bauer et al., 2003). Drobetz et al. (2003) and Chen et al. (2003) investigate the influence of governance scorecard on cost of equity capital for Germany and nine Asia markets respectively. Their findings show that good corporate governance helps to reduce such cost. Creamers et al. (2003) find that external and internal governance mechanisms are strong complements in association with long term abnormal returns and accounting measures of profitability. Besides, Q’s of firms with both high takeover vulnerability and high public pension fund ownership are high, but lower than the Q’s of firms where only one of the two governance mechanisms is high. 3. The Data The starting point of our sample is the set of firms listed in Index Constituent Rankings FTSE 100 and Index Constituent Rankings FTSE 250 from FTSE European Monthly Review, January 2001 issue. It will be denoted FTSE 350 hereafter. We exclude financial firms as they have different financial reporting formats and many of the key variables needed in our study are not available in COMPUSTAT database. For each of the remaining industrial and commercial firms, with at least three years of annual reports 8 containing the relevant corporate governance information over the time-period 1999 till 2003, we calculate its corporate governance score using the corporate governance disclosure scorecard provided by the S&P. In this study, scorecard will be used interchangeably with score, rating, ranking and/or index. S&P’s corporate governance disclosure scorecard is a methodology based on a synthesis of governance codes and guidelines of global best practices, as well as its own experience in reviewing individual companies. With the information extracted from company annual report, we answered 119 questions on governance practices for each company each year. It enabled us to construct a time-varying corporate governance scorecard for our study. Ninety three of the questions are binary questions and one point is given for each best practice complied with and zero otherwise or if the company did not disclose whether it had or not complied with such best practice. The remaining questions were answered with specific integers such as “number of members in the remuneration committee”. Since for a few questions, the answer corresponded to more than one score item, there are altogether 136 best practice items for the scorecard. Four out of the 136 items can score up to a maximum two points instead of one. Therefore, the maximum possible score for one company with the 136 score items is 140. The calculation of the score is from the MS Excel build-in formula. After filling in the answers to these 119 questions, the formula automatically computes the total score for the company of interests. Generally such measure assigns an equal weightage to each disclosed item with the exception of the four items which can attain a maximum score of two. These four items carry slightly higher weightage. Scores on the 119 questions are grouped into five categories of corporate governance: Board Matters, Nomination Matters, Remuneration Matters, Audit Matters and Communication. We compute the composite governance scorecard by summing up the scores for each group. The financial data employed in our analysis are obtained from COMPUTSTAT Global Industrial/Commercial file from 1999 to 2003 (as for previous growth, profit measures, we use the corresponding earlier period data). We obtain the following data from DataStream: total stock return index for individual firm, FTSE all share total return 9 index, U.K. Treasury Bill interest rates and market capitalization. The 2-digit SIC codes are from COMPUSTAT (global) database. Average number of institutional shareholders for 2-digit SIC industry of a firm is collected from Shareworld. The dummy variable indicating if a firm trades American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on a major exchange (NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ) in the U.S. is identified using the JP Morgan website: http://www.adr.com. The ownership data are collected manually from annual reports. Our final sample includes 206 firms with 3 to 5 years of data. The scores cover between 116 and 206 firms over the time-period 1999 till 2003. When the scores are supplemented with ownership and accounting data to perform analysis, the firm-year observations vary in the range of 837 to 962 with respect to different model specifications. Table 1: Summary statistics of composite governance scorecard Mean Median St. Dev. Min Max No. of firms 1999 57.72 57.25 8.96 35.00 85.00 116 2000 58.40 58.00 8.62 33.00 85.00 164 2001 2002 61.32 63.94 61.00 64.00 8.18 8.63 38.00 41.00 86.00 105.00 199 205 2003 1999-20002000-20012001-2002 2002-2003 72.13 1.74 2.84 2.46 8.31 70.60 1.00 2.53 1.00 5.50 11.76 3.53 4.12 4.66 8.66 45.50 -6.00 -10.00 -11.00 -4.00 116.00 13.00 21.00 26.00 41.55 206 113 166 202 205 Table 1 provides summary statistics by year for corporate governance scorecard. This table reports the mean, median, standard deviation, minimum, and maximum of corporate governance scores for the sample year 1999-2003. In addition, we present the statistics for the changes of scores each year. The last row of Table 1 shows that the number of firms increases from 116 in 1999 to 206 in 2003. Also, the score is increasing from 1999 to 2003, changing from a mean (median) of 57.72 (57.25) in 1999 to a mean (median) of 72.13 (70.60) in 2003. Overall, there exists an upward trend for the governance scorecard, as can be detected from the average score change that is positive for all the sample years. However some firms’ corporate governance disclosure deteriorates during the sample period. For example, the firm with the most score decrease loses 11 points in 2002. From both the range between minimum and maximum scores 10 and the standard deviation of scores, we can see a certain degree of dispersion for our sample across firms and years. The sample is not skewed as the mean and median is very close. Table 2 shows the Pearson correlations among the variables employed in our study. All variables are measured over the sample period from 1999 to 2003. The second and third columns of the table show the correlations between each of these variables with our absolute governance scorecard and change of the scorecard respectively. The scorecard is negatively correlated with both Tobin’s Q and return on assets. However, a simple correlation between corporate governance and performance may be masking a more complex functional form for this relationship, a possibility that we later examine in multivariate tests. The negative relationships between score and shareholding variable suggest a substitution effect among difference governance mechanisms. This correlation analysis shows that without controlling for other variables, the larger firms with higher debt ratio, capable outsiders serving the board, and issuing ADR in major U.S. stock exchanges disclose more. While the level of governance is significantly correlated with many other variables, it is not the case for the change of governance variable. Only firm size, outsiders’ quality and the availability of internal funds denoted by cash flow return are positively correlated with the change of governance score. Q is positively correlated with ROA, R&D intensity and firm risk. Q is also negatively correlated with size and proportion of fixed assets, consistent with growth firms generally being smaller firms and intangibles being evaluated higher. The impact of corporate governance variables as measured by score and ownership on Q is mixed. Further investigation will be carried out in multiple regressions later. ROA is positively correlated with market power and negatively correlated with debt ratio and R&D intensity. The correlation between ROA and market power and the correlation between ROA and R&D intensity are expected, as the activity of investing and expensing of R&D will reduce current profitability. The multicollinearity is not a serious problem here. Most of the correlations are less than 0.5. The only correlation of concern is between institutional shareholdings and blockholdings. We may need to cautiously explain it when examining them 11 Table 2: Pearson correlations among study variables SCORE SCORE_C Q SCORE_C 0.589** Q -0.109** -0.047 ROA -0.097** -0.035 0.108** ROA INSIDE BLOCK INST FSIZE K/S INSIDE -0.2** 0 0.069* 0.017 BLOCK -0.125** 0.02 -0.035 -0.067* 0.287** INST -0.009 0.002 -0.121** -0.014 -0.051 0.555** FSIZE 0.246** 0.106** -0.206** 0.011 -0.307** -0.183** -0.178** K/S 0.079* -0.007 -0.093** -0.094** -0.117** -0.074* -0.152** -0.058 Y/S -0.057 0.024 0.068* 0.448** 0.007 -0.146** -0.076* -0.035 0.152** R&D/K Y/S R&D/K DTV REG ADR OUTDIRE TENURE NOD -0.014 0.019 0.233** -0.137** 0.007 -0.087* -0.094** -0.181** -0.085** -0.186** DTV 0.178** 0.009 -0.185** -0.121** -0.153** -0.068* -0.125** 0.139** 0.475** 0.054 -0.196** REG 0.056 0.028 -0.019 -0.118** -0.127** -0.059 -0.12** 0.005 0.519** 0.021 -0.08* ADR 0.082* 0.043 0.095** -0.059 -0.166** -0.153** -0.21** 0.33** 0.076* -0.006 0.134** 0.018 0.151** OUTDIRE 0.2** 0.109** -0.036 -0.027 -0.22** -0.126** -0.169** 0.545** 0.125** 0.046 -0.052 0.093** 0.156** 0.448** TENURE -0.2** -0.016 0.015 0.1** 0.37** 0.053 0.054 -0.219** -0.15** 0.051 -0.032 -0.125** -0.184** -0.25** NOD 0.007 -0.002 -0.065 0.022 -0.176** -0.055 -0.154** 0.522** 0.054 -0.028 -0.046 0.055 0.089* 0.232** 0.419** -0.106** RISK -0.034 -0.068 0.142** -0.303** 0.035 0.054 0.093** -0.092** -0.045 -0.142** 0.176** -0.088** -0.007 -0.002 -0.092** -0.08* -0.148** RDAI -0.08* 0.014 0.189** -0.005 0.076* 0.011 0.02 -0.176** -0.188** -0.116** 0.263** -0.292** -0.168** 0.042 -0.086* 0.018 -0.073* NINSTI CR RISK RDAI NINSTI 0.26** -0.134** 0.084** -0.112** 0.054 0.06 -0.006 0.068* -0.011 -0.155** 0.17** 0.013 0.166** 0.129** -0.075* 0.096** 0.186** 0.168** 0.037 0.208** 0.012 0.115** 0.046 0.105** -0.125** -0.007 0.076* -0.006 -0.003 0.197** -0.042 -0.036 -0.088** 0.068* -0.057 0.039 0.084* 0.031 0.058 -0.012 -0.083* 0.028 Definitions of each variable are given in the Appendix. * Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (two-tailed). ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (two-tailed). 12 simultaneously. 4. Determinants of Corporate Governance: Empirical Evidence Following Himmelberg et al. (1999), we explore the determinants of firm-level governance controlling for firm-specific contracting environment. Himmelberg et al. argue that contracting environment influences the optimal level of managerial shareholdings. This argument can be easily transferred to our corporate governance scorecard as a comprehensive measure of control. Similar to their setup, we make a comparison among the pooled data without fixed effects, panel with industry fixed effects and panel with firm fixed effects empirically. Briefly, estimates from pooled data depend only on the variation in average corporate governance scorecard and performance levels across firms and will not utilize the variation over time in these variables for individual firm. It is achieved by pooling all data and implicitly forcing equal intercepts. In contrast, estimates from panel with firm fixed effects will depend only on the variation over time in corporate governance scorecard and performance for each individual firm, and will not utilize the variation in variables across firms. Similarly, panel with industry fixed effects assumes unobserved heterogeneity is constant for the same industry instead of same firm. Such measure is noisier than the measure with firm fixed effects. Including models of panel with industry fixed effects is for the purpose of completion, but our main focus is on pooled data and panel with firm fixed effects. Besides for the purpose of controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity, we use fixed effects to detect the different impact of within- and between- variation on governance choices and firm performance. Specifications using pooled data serve as a base line to examine cross-section differences; whereas, we use fixed effects to investigate the changes of governance in specific firms over time. It is interesting to discover whether it is the absolute ranking of the corporate governance or the improvement of corporate governance over time that has more influence on performance. Our research is distinct from Himmelberg et al., in that we substitute corporate governance scorecard as indicated by SCORE for managerial ownership as dependent variable. We use the same set of x variables chosen by Himmelberg et al. to proxy firm attributes except that we exclude capital expenditure to Property, Plant and 13 Equipment and the ratio of advertising expenditures to the stock of Property, Plant and Equipment, for COMPUSTAT does not report data of capital expenditure and advertising expenditure for U.K. companies. We also exclude the managerial risk aversion measure since it is not relevant to corporate governance scorecard here. As previously described, the corporate governance scorecard synthesizes many governance devices, including board structures, managerial compensation, nomination matters, audit matters and communication with shareholders. Although it is a rather comprehensive measure, it does not comprise corporate ownership as one of important mechanisms. To complement this governance scorecard, we add ownership to one set of our models to explicitly capture the interdependence among various governance mechanisms as well as their impact on performance. This study proceeds in two parts. The first part deals with determinants of corporate governance. In the second part, we explore the determinants of firm value. In the first part, we regress SCORE on a vector of x variables with and without ownership variables. In the second part, we test for a correlation between SCORE and performance measures indicated either by Tobin’s Q or by Return On Assets (ROA). We add the variables found in part one to be associated with higher governance rankings as controls to filter out their effects on firm performance. Following what we have done in part one, we run regressions including and excluding ownership variables in part two. Each set of specifications comprises all the three setups, i.e., pooled data, panel with industry fixed effects and panel with firm fixed effects, which will be noted as pooled, SIC effects and firm effects for short hereafter. To summarize, in part one, the model is specified as: SCORE it 0 1 INSIDE it 2 BLOCK it 3 INSTit it (1) SCORE it 0 4 FSIZEit 5 FSIZEit2 6 ( K / S ) it 7 ( K / S ) it2 8 (Y / S ) it 9 RDUM it 10 ( R & D / K ) it it (2) SCORE it 0 1 INSIDE it 2 BLOCK it 3 INSTit 4 FSIZEit 5 FSIZEit2 6 ( K / S ) it 7 ( K / S ) it2 8 (Y / S ) it 9 RDUM it 10 ( R & D / K ) it it (3) where i and t represent the firm and time respectively it is regarded as white-noise error term under the pooled setup it ui it ; where it is a white-noise error term and; 14 under the SIC effects setup, u i is the one digit SIC-specific effect; whereas, under the firm effects setup, u i is the firm-specific effect Table 3: Determinants of corporate governance: OLS regressions of SCORE on ownership and/or firm characteristics variables Variable Pooled SIC effects Firm effects Pooled SIC effects Firm effects Pooled SIC effects Firm effects (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 55.96147*** 59.40037*** 33.87671*** 64.25206*** 40.96122*** 41.11096*** 71.44729*** (75.9784) (70.75563) (177.0958) (6.95664) (8.974009) (18.57954) (8.042877) (9.436761) INSIDE -16.06609*** -15.79054*** -4.272417 -10.5107*** -6.611079*** -3.382244 (-18.4896) (-7.08289) (-1.586956) (-7.462303) (-2.763165) (-1.511576) BLOCK -6.938328*** -4.773461** -6.445102*** -7.158255*** -5.697996*** -6.925284*** (-9.032477) (-2.273427) (-2.846321) (-7.328492) (-2.66959) (-2.863008) Constant INST 58.05115*** 28.88907*** (27.9939) 0.939323** -1.985681 2.147458 2.503498*** 2.110175 4.022158** (2.165657) (-0.799738) (0.807763) (2.594623) (0.80902) (2.17402) -3.739628* 2.223979*** 3.150366** -5.301039** FSIZE 4.550914*** 4.589387*** (8.746813) (3.401587) (-1.682148) (3.949855) (2.293114) (-2.356665) -0.186168*** -0.196495** 0.349015** -0.05481 -0.114163 0.437058*** (-3.866729) (-2.103435) (2.152406) (-1.183328) (-1.200681) (2.78033) 1.340481*** 1.103453*** 1.109216 1.139145*** 1.032287*** 1.275402 (9.879849) (3.22452) (1.159435) (6.138696) (2.860012) (1.509986) (K/S) -0.058498*** -0.05009** -0.096103 -0.053986*** -0.049954** -0.126848 (-4.945446) (-2.285439) (-0.966653) (-3.722203) (-2.235631) (-1.387066) Y/S 3.971113*** -1.379066 2.049784*** 1.911605*** -2.111866 1.708782*** (4.292142) (-0.587055) (3.502352) (3.849142) (-0.859553) (2.614216) 1.364066*** 1.322713* 1.011787** 1.152648*** 0.922667 0.716456 (3.403433) (1.949953) (2.038836) (3.038125) (1.340745) (1.460918) 2 FSIZE K/S 2 RDUM R&D/K no. of obs Adj. R 1.73979* 1.061954 -2.66807* 0.471562 0.583304 -2.077036 (1.89676) (0.974518) (-1.81549) (0.472598) (0.527791) (-1.440353) 853 853 853 845 845 845 845 845 845 0.9784 0.2868 0.9947 0.9774 0.3187 0.9942 0.9798 0.3306 0.9947 2 Numbers in parentheses are t statistics. Definitions of each variable are given in the Appendix. Year dummies are included for all regressions, but not reported. Fixed effects at the industry or firm level are included where indicated, but not reported. * Means significant at 0.10 level (two-tailed). ** Means significant at 0.05 level (two-tailed). *** Means significant at 0.01 level (two-tailed). Our part one empirical analysis of determinants of corporate governance is summarized in Table 3. We begin our exploration of corporate governance determinants with ownership variables only. The results are presented in the first three columns. The first column reports results from a baseline specification using pooled data for all firm years. It shows that insider shareholdings and blockholdings are negative and significant, whereas institutional shareholdings are positive and significant. It implies a substitutive effect between insider/block shareholdings and 15 other corporate governance mechanisms as synthesized by the corporate governance scorecard. It is not surprising to see a positive relationship between institutional shareholdings and SCORE, as institutions may require firms to disclose more or they simply follow firms with a transparent disclosure history. The results in second and third columns control for SIC effects and firm effects, respectively. The patterns we identified in the first column carry over to the estimates in Column two and three, with the exception that institutions’ following is insignificant. Besides, board shareholdings seem to have no influence on SCORE when controls for firm effects. Next, we replace ownership with firm characteristics as explanatory variables. The estimated coefficients are in Columns four to six for the pooled, SIC effects and firm effects, respectively. Nonlinearity exists between firm size and corporate governance scorecard. The inclusion of fixed effects changes the estimated coefficients significantly in some cases. For example, both the estimated coefficient of the firm size and the coefficient of the R&D expense to fixed assets changed signs when controls for firm fixed effects. Consistent with the results of Himmelberg et al. (1999), the ratios of operating income to sales are significantly positive in pooled and firm effects models, supportive of the argument that the higher a firm’s free cash flow, ceteris paribus, the higher the desired level of governance. Our estimates for the K/S are contradictory to the hypothesis that firms with a greater concentration of “hard” capital in their inputs will generally have a lower optimal level of governance level. Once we control for firm fixed effects, the coefficients become insignificant. To fine tune the proxies for the scope for discretionary spending, following Himmelberg et al., we use the ratio of R&D spending to capital as a measure of “soft capital”. We use dummy variable (RDUM) to indicate the availability of R&D. Generally, firms report R&D expenses have higher corporate governance disclosure level. Among our three setups, R&D intensity appears to have a positive effect on corporate governance scorecard for pooled data, but have a negative effect on corporate governance scorecard if controls for firm effects. This result is concurrent with the finding of Himmelberg et al. (1999) but is against the hypothesis. Our model specifications in the last three columns of Table 3 include ownership in combination with firm characteristics (the combined model) to address the issue in a contracting environment network. Broadly speaking, previously observed separate 16 correlations of governance scorecard with ownership and firm characteristics still hold when combined together. Save for the risk measure becoming insignificant, the results are qualitatively the same as those in separate regression settings. Taking together, this research reveals the differences existing in cross-section and within-variation in determining governance scorecard. One proposition is that the unobserved firm characteristics are correlated with the observed characteristics, thus bias the estimated coefficients in the cross-sectional or pooled regression. A second possibility is that the factors driving a firm to improve governance over time are not necessarily the ones shaping the cross-sectional governance ranking. Due to availability of our longitude data, we are able to control the unobserved firm specific characteristics. As Klapper and Love (2004) study the determinants of corporate governance using only cross-sectional regression, they fail to control the firm fixed effects. Another difference from their study is the inclusion of ownership variables and discovered significant substitutive and complementary effects among different control mechanisms. 5. Corporate Governance and Firm Performance A common approach to testing whether established good governance is reflected in the firm’s performance and market valuation is to regress Tobin’s Q (and later ROA) on corporate governance scorecard controlling for those factors affecting firm value. The following models are for part two analysis. Qit 0 1 SCORE it 3 INSIDE it 4 BLOCK it 5 INSTit it (4) Qit 0 1 SCORE it 2 SCORE it2 3 INSIDE it 4 BLOCK it 5 INSTit it Qit 0 1 SCORE it 6 FSIZEit 7 FSIZE 8 ( K / S ) it 9 ( K / S ) 2 it (5) 2 it 10 (Y / S ) it 11 RDUM it 12 ( R & D / K ) it it (6) Qit 0 1 SCORE it 2 SCORE it2 6 FSIZEit 7 FSIZEit2 8 ( K / S ) it 9 ( K / S ) it2 10 (Y / S ) it 11 RDUM it 12 ( R & D / K ) it it Qit 0 1 SCORE it 3 INSIDE it 4 BLOCK it 5 INSTit 6 FSIZEit (7) 7 FSIZEit2 8 ( K / S ) it 9 ( K / S ) it2 10 (Y / S ) it 11 RDUM it 12 ( R & D / K ) it it (8) Qit 0 1 SCORE it 2 SCORE it2 3 INSIDE it 4 BLOCK it 5 INSTit 6 FSIZEit 7 FSIZEit2 8 ( K / S ) it 9 ( K / S ) it2 10 (Y / S ) it 11 RDUM it 12 ( R & D / K ) it it (9) 17 The three setups namely pooled, SIC effects and firm effects are studied for all the equations as did in part one. SCORE2 is added to control for nonlinearity if any. We also use return on total assets (ROA) as an alternative measure of firm performance, which is calculated as Net Income/Total Assets. The model structures are the same as in equations (4) to (9). Table 4 reports the estimated coefficients with Q as dependent variable. The first three columns report results from Equation (4). Equation (5) with SCORE2 term does not change the ownership pattern, whose estimates are shown in Columns four to six. Columns seven to twelve are for regressors of firm characteristics as given in Equation (6) and (7). Finally, the last six columns present results from Equation (8) and (9). The prominent finding of performance analysis is that SCORE has the predicted sign and is significant only after controlling for firm fixed effects. Under pooled settings, results are mixed for corporate governance scorecard with different set of regressors. Based on the combined model, it is at best positive but insignificant. We interpret this inconsistency as information content difference in cross-section and time-series disclosure. As our findings suggest that firms improving their corporate governance over time perform better, changes in governance are of more importance than level of governance in determining market valuation. This conclusion has intuitive appeal to investors because they may find that information obtained from longitude corporate governance disclosure in annual report matters more than information gained from cross-sectional absolute governance ranking in performance evaluation. The reason that higher absolute governance ranking may not lead to better performance can be explained as follows. Some firms especially FTSE100 firms autonomously build their control mechanisms in line with the regulator’s recommendations and are likely to disclose more on their governance status. There is not necessarily a strong link between governance level and performance. On the other hand, as we do not explicitly control endogeneity in pooled model, the inverse relation may go from poorer performance to more voluntary disclosure. This is in spirit consistent with Skinner’s (1994) findings, in that large negative earnings surprises are more often preempted by voluntary corporate disclosures. In contrast, firms improving their governance over time are more likely to be those really in need of suitable control and get rewarded when they improve their governance. 18 Table 4: Determinants of firm value: OLS regressions of Q on SCORE, ownership and/or firm characteristics variables Variable Pooled SIC effects Firm effects Pooled SIC effects Firm effects Pooled SIC effects Firm effects Pooled SIC effects Firm effects Pooled SIC effects Firm effects Pooled SIC effects Firm effects (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) 31.78157*** Constant 2.759674*** SCORE 4.493743*** 2.249247*** 4.094326*** (17.42437) (5.266383) (23.43348) (11.22082) (3.361911) (22.41674) (6.079696) (3.098614) -0.01505*** -0.023161** 0.011593*** -0.059091*** -0.055915 -0.02025*** 0.00702* 0.009407 (-5.546556) (-2.235835) (9.993812) (1.76358) (1.542072) SCORE2 INSIDE BLOCK INST 5.558441*** 3.405946*** 7.928633*** 18.06996*** 23.02716*** 6.668153*** 15.95895*** 23.7445*** (16.32905) (5.567803) 0.007372*** 0.058354*** (-5.589061) (-1.394785) (-6.539344) 0.000339*** 0.000244 0.000205*** (4.721459) -0.000378*** (6.33683) (-6.285277) 8.046232*** 17.67705*** (3.097695) (14.60573) 8.448892*** (5.66655) 20.09381*** 32.02045*** (2.904444) (8.030322) (5.446788) (2.791095) (8.225666) 0.083361* 0.028046*** 0.001492 0.007938 0.020162*** 0.020266 0.089761* 0.030739*** (1.779851) (4.677233) (0.588329) (1.257599) (4.610561) -0.00055* -0.000146*** (5.464599) -0.0000721 (-1.204835) (4.860281) (0.994123) (11.09699) (-1.655879) (-1.807005) 1.651935 0.295882* 0.993226*** 1.623644 0.116591 -0.940306*** -2.478577 0.085406 -0.879827*** -2.445326 0.081809 (2.738532) (1.625118) (1.949508) (2.790624) (1.600105) (0.631133) (-4.426394) (-1.386137) (0.224876) (-4.056722) (-1.374397) (0.205507) -0.029765 0.264562 -1.251913*** -0.079112 0.223979 -1.259964*** 0.08413 1.179029* -3.506412*** 0.08048 1.286319* -3.446506*** (-0.103947) (0.390769) (-4.411869) (-0.267574) (0.3284) (-4.035511) (0.787339) (1.684589) (-5.29069) (0.706549) (1.789211) (-5.388761) -0.499667 -1.787671*** -5.090279*** -0.54881 (-0.743669) (-7.953435) (-3.160981) (-0.755913) -4.297917** -7.016808*** (-6.332588) (-2.507102) -1.177655** (-2.566741) (-3.463759) (1.894149) -0.000607* 0.931126*** -2.108797*** -3.344322** (-1.692426) (1.643103) -0.000135* -1.986151*** -3.316135** -1.177129*** (-6.131664) (-2.500458) -1.829341*** -5.017831*** (-2.683586) FSIZE (-8.306281) (-3.15844) -1.833521*** -4.078812** -4.806644*** -1.936639*** -4.159003** -5.182238*** -1.738816*** -4.226105** -6.985821*** -1.796149*** (-4.760182) (-12.04592) (-4.325895) (-2.459564) (-7.658723) (-4.275481) (-2.4699) (-7.784987) FSIZE 0.112651*** 0.245607** 0.262345*** 0.119168*** 0.250951** 0.286727*** 0.10391*** 0.246058** 0.388457*** 0.107636*** 0.250902** 0.390221*** (4.852069) (2.448865) (16.40142) (5.425976) (2.448371) (11.28123) (4.21277) (2.36064) (7.428214) (4.150309) -0.430899*** 0.528027*** -0.82756*** -0.432437*** -0.53148*** -0.866926*** -0.468586*** -0.660806*** -0.78402*** -0.465287*** (2.373208) (7.56001) K/S (-6.701769) (-7.097566) (-5.138291) (-11.94536) (-7.183776) (-5.122539) (-13.08488) (K/S)2 0.018088*** 0.023584*** 0.045263*** 0.017965*** 0.023419*** 0.047809*** 0.019101*** 0.027158*** 0.03074*** 0.018918*** 0.027048*** 0.030254*** (5.065266) (4.758425) (5.584297) (5.073997) (5.117677) (6.161239) (5.146378) (3.504461) (6.27135) (5.167821) (3.86924) Y/S 2.316546*** 2.564064** 0.752678** 2.30485*** 2.630133** 0.806431** 2.371925*** 2.420318** 0.259351 2.299589*** 2.50555** 0.257997 (2.047519) (23.45225) (2.241754) (2.144942) (18.12079) (2.32418) (1.386297) (17.44321) (2.352721) (1.421213) 2 (-6.357395) (5.57978) (19.60453) RDUM R&D/K no. of obs Adj. R2 (-2.548349) (-5.676426) (2.236502) (-15.69847) (-6.638321) (-5.282313) (-6.432556) (-2.546418) (-5.644637) -0.665535*** -0.781639*** 0.085781*** 0.33165 -0.049388 0.092542*** 0.32009 0.009317 0.150674*** 0.414027* 0.11428 0.154004*** 0.406732* 0.106431 (3.765397) (1.449976) (-0.918623) (4.413436) (1.421528) (0.154946) (4.164634) (1.850849) (1.279151) (4.370691) (1.832202) (1.302241) 3.413439*** 2.603778* -0.800851* 3.423775*** 2.608852* -0.939299* 2.981034*** 2.168062 2.177431 -2.573496*** (6.560545) (1.737764) (-1.75424) (5.811305) (1.74209) (-1.823642) (10.52544) (1.578216) (-5.312895) (9.955066) (1.586252) (-5.411619) -2.558149*** 2.946802*** 848 848 848 848 848 848 843 843 843 843 843 843 843 843 843 843 843 843 0.8561 0.0356 0.9039 0.8279 0.0356 0.8896 0.7239 0.1495 0.9285 0.7572 0.1502 0.9315 0.7373 0.1700 0.9742 0.7263 0.1707 0.9747 Numbers in parentheses are t statistics. Definitions of each variable are given in the Appendix. Year dummies are included for all regressions, but not reported. Fixed effects at the industry or firm level are included where indicated, but not reported. * Means significant at 0.10 level (two-tailed);** Means significant at 0.05 level (two-tailed);*** Means significant at 0.01 level (two-tailed) 19 Furthermore, not examined here but elsewhere in this study, we find that with the same degree of increase in governance, firms having lower initial governance rankings show larger performance increase than their counterparts. As for control variables, the inclusion of firm characteristics changes the signs of estimated coefficients of insider shareholdings and blockholdings for the pooled data. Estimates are not affected in firm fixed effects panel. The coefficient of the institutional shareholdings is dominantly negative and statistically significantly different from zero, suggesting that instead of increasing monitoring of managers’ behavior institutions seem to exploit minority shareholders. The firm characteristics variables are robust to the inclusion of additional ownership controls. For all Q regression, Q is negatively related to firm size and “hard” capital but positively related to operating income. R&D intensity is positively correlated with Q in cross-section setup. However, it becomes puzzlingly negative when controls for firm effects. We then repeat the same exercise using ROA as an alternative performance measure. This time SCORE is positively and significantly related to operating performance not only for the within-variation but also for the between-variation. Although evidence from our regressions implies blockholders consistently do a bad job in control, institutions and insiders seem to play different roles for between- and within- variations. The relationship between ROA and firm characteristics is similar to the relationship between Q and firm characteristics. To be specific, the larger firms, firms holding more “hard” capitals and firms with less operating income to sales have lower return on assets. R&D intensity is negatively correlated with ROA, which is not surprising, since the expensing of R&D expenditure will reduce current profitability. 6. Further Evidence on the Link between Firm Performance and Corporate Governance from Simultaneous Equation System Two-stage least squares regressions are employed to examine the interaction of different governance devices and their impact on firm performance. Agrawal and Knoeber (1996) set up a good model for us to study the interlocked variables together. They simultaneously examine the use of seven mechanisms to control agency problems. Variables included in their study are: shareholdings of insiders, institutions, and large 20 blockholders, use of outside directors, debt policy, the managerial labor market, and the market for corporate control. Our research setup differs from Agrawal and Knoeber’s (1996) in a number of respects: First, we include the comprehensive governance scorecard measure. Second, we control for fixed effects in the simultaneous analysis. On one hand, we double control for the endogenous problem. On the other hand, as argued previously, we believe that the changes of governance have more impact on performance than the level of governance itself. Third, since use of outsiders in the board has already been captured in our governance scorecard, we exclude it from the equations. The managerial labor market is also excluded because it is less related with governance ratings. Our focus is on the internal control. Therefore, the market for corporate control falls outside this study and is excluded. Altogether, there are five equations relating to governance mechanisms in our investigation. The governance mechanisms are corporate governance scorecard, shareholdings of insiders, institutions, and blockholders, and debt policy. All of them are treated as endogenously determined. In estimating the system of equations, we use the following variables as instruments: FSIZE, ADR, OUTDIRE, TENURE, NOD, RISK_D, RISK, RDAI_D, RDAI, NINSTI, and CR. In order to satisfy the order condition to ensure that the equations in the system are identified, each equation must exclude at least four of the exogenous variables since each equation includes four endogenous variables as regressors. The specification of Equations (10) to (14) below is partially driven by the need to satisfy this order condition. Nevertheless, as far as possible, we rely on theory or prior research to determine the exogenous variables to be included or excluded in each of the equations. We estimate the following simultaneous equation systems: SCORE 0 i M i 5 REG 6 FSIZE 7 ADR 8 OUTDIRE (10) i j INSIDE 0 i M i 5 REG 6 FSIZE 7TENURE 8 NOD 9 RISK _ D i j 10 RISK (11) BLOCK 0 i M i 5 REG 6 FSIZE 7 RISK _ D 8 RISK 9 RDAI _ D i j 21 10 RDAI INST 0 i M i 5 REG 6 NINSTI 7 ADR (12) (13) i j DTV 0 i M i 5 REG 6 FSIZE 7UNIQ 8 CR (14) i j M j denotes the mechanism on the left-hand side and M i j denotes the other four mechanisms. Variable definitions are in the Appendix. Besides interacting with other mechanisms, SCORE is assumed to be positively correlated with firm size, ADR dummy and outside directors’ quality measured by average number of directorships held by non-executive directors in unaffiliated firms. As larger firms and firms issuing ADR may have more channels for disclosure. Outside directors may encourage firms to comply with higher standard of governance. Regulated firms may have different disclosure requirement. Such difference will be captured by REG dummy. Equation for insider shareholdings is similar to that in Agrawal and Knoeber (1996). We expect insider shareholdings to be positively correlated with average years of service as directors and number of directors but negatively correlated with firm risk, regulation and firm size. We exclude FOUNDER dummy, as the majority of firms in our sample are mature large firms and do not have founders holding key positions. Equation (12) relates to blockholdings. We include the similar set of exogenous variables as inside shareholdings, except for replacing TENURE and NOD with RDAI. The directions of our predictions are similar to those for INSIDE. Additionally, as argued by Agrawal and Knoeber that as the industry average R&D to asset ratio rises, technology becomes more firm-specific, making outside monitoring less effective, we expect a negative coefficient for RDAI. The choice of explanatory variables for INST closely follows Agrawal and Knoeber (1996). Following the same line of argument for NYSE listing, we expect larger firms and those issuing ADR in the U.S. to be more attractive to institutions. NINSTI is used as an additional measure of attractiveness to institutions by Agrawal and Knoeber (1996). However, we do not expect a positive relation between INST and NINSTI, because our institutional shareholdings are calculated by summing up the shareholdings larger than 22 3%. As the number of institutions in the industry increases, the proportional shareholdings of each institution may decrease. Some may be less than 3% and not included in our calculation of INST. This may spuriously lead to a negative relationship between INST and NINSTI. The last endogenous variable is use of debt. As asserted in Agrawal and Knoeber (1996), DTV should depend positively upon firm size, negatively on REG and CR. Table 5: Coefficient estimates from 2SLS regressions of control mechanisms (pooled) Independent Variables CONSTANT SCORE 51.97518*** (10.10664) SCORE INSIDE BLOCK INST DTV REG FSIZE ADR OUTDIRE -57.71976*** (-6.063851) -27.45351*** (-5.771991) 34.21344** (2.465674) 11.39047*** (4.112163) -0.321513 (-0.467379) -0.422026 (-1.00521) 2.711416*** (7.824606) 1.546051*** (3.264105) INSIDE 0.21751** (2.413612) -0.002321*** (-4.790076) 0.208538*** (3.472738) -0.135519** (-2.168495) -0.210274*** (-6.222729) -0.019462*** (-5.653298) -0.009799** (-2.161044) 0.010459*** (17.66012) -0.002252** (-2.14963) 0.011894 (1.118989) -0.27273 (-1.554202) TENURE NOD RISK_D RISK RDAI_D RDAI Dependent Variable BLOCK INST 0.354756*** 0.29437*** (3.408335) (4.006225) -0.004554*** 0.000264 (-5.670119) (0.242618) -0.179574 -0.065229 (-1.066364) (-1.399228) 0.108409*** (2.706624) 0.769814*** (4.190407) 0.112851 -0.273009*** (1.312055) (-7.768218) 0.007333 -0.039858** (0.422633) (-2.492005) -0.003298 -0.010601*** (-0.357078) (-4.324699) -0.041579*** (-5.025436) -0.031932*** (-3.41251) -0.014727*** (-4.985219) -0.062193*** (-5.884713) 0.621076 (1.121057) -0.045951*** (-5.020283) 0.173023** (2.278546) -0.000106*** (-4.826986) NINSTI CR Adjusted R2 no. of obs. DTV 0.411281*** (4.686151) -0.00216* (-1.744386) -1.317086*** (-4.516105) 0.575976*** (2.589891) -0.761683*** (-3.608497) 0.9565 837 0.2671 837 0.9249 837 0.7667 837 0.039527*** (15.82375) 0.4134 837 Numbers in parentheses are t statistics. Variables are defined in the Appendix. * Means significant at 0.10 23 level (two-tailed). ** Means significant at 0.05 level (two-tailed). *** Means significant at 0.01 level (two-tailed). Results of the 2SLS estimation for the pooled data without fixed effects are presented in Table 5. The coefficients on the exogenous variables generally have the predicted sign and most of them are significant at normal level. However, the coefficient on NOD for Equation (11) is negative and significant, contradictory to our assumption. We suspect that it is due to the positive relationship between firm size and board size. As INSIDE decreases when FSIZE increases, it decreases when NOD increases if FSIZE affects INSIDE through NOD. This explanation may be incomplete since the coefficient on FSIZE is already negatively significant. Less use of debt by larger firms is also unexpected. If managers set debt levels in terms of book value rather than market value ratios, DTV may not be a good measure for firm’s long-term capital structure. Consequently, the hypothesized relationship between debt use and firm size may not hold. Similar as in previous analysis of corporate governance determinants, score and insider shareholdings and score and blockholdings are substitutes pairs, whereas higher institutions following causes firms to disclose more but not the other way round. From Equation (10) we find that use of debt is positively correlated with governance disclosure, whereas from Equation (14) the relation between SCORE and DTV is negative. Although it seems contradictory at surface, it may make sense. On the one hand pressure from debt holders may force firms to disclose more. On the other hand, firms already having a higher level of corporate governance as measured by SCORE have less incentive to use debts as a signal of monitoring by lenders. Shareholdings by institutions and by blockholders appear to be complementary avenues for outsider activism since each increase along with the other. For the managerial ownership, we find that it increases with increasing blockholdings but decreases with increasing institutional shareholdings. This reveals that the correspondence among these ownership variables is not necessarily a simple one. Table 6 reports the results of the 2SLS estimation for the fixed effects specification. The direction of the relationship for the governance variables is generally consistent with that in Table 5. However, many of them lose significance. For instance, the direction that 24 ownership variables affecting SCORE is the same as in pooled data but not statistically significant. Except that insider ownership increases when governance scorecard increases, the corporate governance scorecard has no effect on other governance devices. The same as in pooled model, debt holders help to monitor firms by encouraging more disclosure. After controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, firms with improved governance ratings use more debt. This contrasts with the findings from pooled data, where firms with higher ratings use less debt. Table 6: Coefficient estimates from 2SLS regressions of control mechanisms (firm effects) Independent Variables CONSTANT SCORE 65.2161*** (23.9849) SCORE INSIDE BLOCK INST DTV FSIZE ADR OUTDIRE -34.22183 (-1.437403) -33.47095 (-1.616105) 1.529976 (0.05616) 28.45252** (2.104068) -1.105833* (-1.953737) 7.430205*** (2.827952) 1.555363*** (3.801831) INSIDE -0.113946 (-1.014247) 0.002654** (2.235584) 0.495296* (1.935605) -0.423529** (-2.096267) 0.111632 (1.104175) -0.020484 (-1.565991) 0.004156 (1.619382) 0.002907* (1.859992) 0.096327 (1.157198) -0.446157*** (-2.729671) TENURE NOD RISK_D RISK RDAI_D RDAI Dependent Variable BLOCK INST 0.150255 0.001737 (1.194111) (0.009267) -0.000298 0.000577 (-0.111998) (0.169737) 0.516066* -0.004882 (1.669124) (-0.016221) 0.693809*** (3.883323) 0.335432 (0.761882) 0.006505 0.150129 (0.040141) (0.922396) -0.003014 -0.000251 (-0.369485) (-0.02536) 0.027731 (0.994238) 0.045322*** (3.776087) -0.043671 (-0.727797) 1.224965** (2.140507) -0.016305* (-1.93352) 0.180563 (1.062426) 0.0000168 (0.131514) NINSTI CR Adjusted R2 no. of obs. DTV -0.409345** (-2.570506) 0.000864 (0.293578) 0.41992 (1.443012) -0.187119 (-0.298541) 0.818321 (0.992231) 0.6494 837 0.8040 837 0.8800 837 0.8475 837 -0.026515*** (-5.147966) 0.6484 837 Numbers in parentheses are t statistics. Variables are defined in the Appendix. * Means significant at 0.10 25 level (two-tailed). ** Means significant at 0.05 level (two-tailed). *** Means significant at 0.01 level (two-tailed). Result in Table 6 shows that as firm size increases, debt financing increases as well, consistent with the hypothesis that the expected bankruptcy costs of debt should be smaller for larger firms. But the coefficient for CR carries the wrong sign and is significant, implying that the availability of internal funds does not replace the debt financing. For Equation (11) relating to managerial ownership, the relationship between NOD and INSIDE is significantly positive, suggesting that when the number of directors increases, directors’ shareholdings increase accordingly. Insider shareholdings decrease as firm risk increase, consistent with insiders’ diversification requirement. However, firm risk seems to have the opposite effect on blockholders. In addition to the interdependence among the control mechanisms, we also investigate the relationship between the mechanisms and firm performance, measured by Tobin’s Q. As in Agrawal and Knoeber (1996), we control for R&D expenditure and firm size. We expect R&D expenditure to indicate growth opportunities and to be positively related to Q. Since Q should be lower for larger firms, we control for firm size in our regression. Equation (15) will be added to the previous simultaneous equations (10) to (14). Q is added as an endogenous variable along with all the control mechanisms together. Other variables are treated as exogenous and used as instruments. Q 0 i M i 5 RDUM 6 RDA 7 FSIZE (15) i j In addition to treating Q and all the governance mechanisms as endogenous and doing estimation with 2SLS, we also estimate Q with OLS, treating all the other variables as exogenous for comparison purpose. For either OLS or 2SLS, we run regressions with and without fixed effects as what we did previously. For the pooled specification, the OLS and 2SLS results of the estimates for Equation (15) are shown in Table 7. The evidence from OLS regression is consistent with lower corporate governance ratings, greater shareholdings by blockholders, fewer shareholdings by institutions and less corporate debt all leading to improved firm performance. The negative relationship between governance scorecard and performance contradicts with our hypothesis that higher level of governance helps to improve performance. But these 26 results only suggest correlation rather than causality. The 2SLS estimates in column two permit us to address the issue of which way the relation runs. Table 7: Coefficients estimates from OLS and 2SLS regressions of Tobin’s Q on control mechanisms (pooled) Independent Variables CONSTANT SCORE INSIDE BLOCK INST DTV RDUM RDA FSIZE Adjusted R2 no. of obs. OLS Estimates (1) 3.612755*** (13.13777) -0.005809*** (-4.026671) 0.065667 (0.235783) 0.349697** (2.22556) -2.282972*** (-9.193773) 2SLS Estimates (2) 11.13153*** (6.283291) -0.016372 (-1.019165) -9.385708*** (-6.292297) 0.026568 (0.01482) -12.39682*** (-8.764227) -2.394069*** -12.44773*** (-6.154964) -0.186827** (-1.990409) 19.64734*** (7.967797) -0.1855*** (-5.728549) 0.7256 843 (-10.93111) -0.472478*** (-5.768452) 6.451534*** (3.020857) -0.666452*** (-7.118031) 0.3435 837 Numbers in parentheses are t statistics. Variables are defined in the Appendix. * Means significant at 0.10 level (two-tailed). ** Means significant at 0.05 level (two-tailed). *** Means significant at 0.01 level (two-tailed). In comparison of the 2SLS estimates with the OLS estimates in Table 7, the negative coefficient on corporate governance scorecard is slightly larger in magnitude in the 2SLS estimate but no longer statistically significant. Similarly, the coefficient on blockholdings loses statistical significance. The negative coefficients on INST and DTV remain significant. Finally, unlike in OLS, the coefficient on INSIDE becomes surprisingly negative and significant. The evidence in Table 7 is not consistent with optimal choice of the control mechanisms as asserted by Agrawal and Knoeber (1996). They document that except for board composition, all of the control mechanisms are optimally chosen. However, our results differ considerably from theirs. Insider shareholdings, institutional shareholdings and corporate debt all reduce firm performance rather than being chosen to maximize 27 firm value. To further control the unobserved heterogeneity and to explore the impact of changes of governance scorecard on firm performance, we estimate Equation (15) controlling for firm fixed effects. The results are reported in Table 8. Table 8: Coefficients estimates from OLS and 2SLS regressions of Tobin’s Q on control mechanisms (firm effects) Independent Variables CONSTANT SCORE INSIDE BLOCK INST DTV RDUM RDA FSIZE Adjusted R2 no. of obs. OLS Estimates (1) 7.361743*** (15.05201) 0.009604*** (3.472724) -0.303205 (-0.738345) -0.96302*** (-4.897517) -1.292731*** (-2.955394) 2SLS Estimates (2) 21.54325*** (3.341931) -0.029884 (-0.223506) -11.41653 (-1.380169) -10.68916 (-0.68975) -3.125125 (-0.268161) 0.173951 9.763631*** (0.663806) -0.260004*** (-5.139865) 4.916769*** (4.042345) -0.703885*** (-9.452368) 0.8605 843 (4.07339) -0.873003 (-1.292993) 2.572016 (0.396355) -2.088306*** (-3.402679) 0.3429 837 Numbers in parentheses are t statistics. Variables are defined in the Appendix. * Means significant at 0.10 level (two-tailed). ** Means significant at 0.05 level (two-tailed). *** Means significant at 0.01 level (two-tailed). For the fixed effects specification, the results for either OLS or 2SLS are quite different from those for pooled specification. In much the same way as the findings in Chapter 5 with panel data, the coefficient for SCORE in Table 8 for OLS suggests a positive but small effect of governance disclosure on performance. This at least partially implies that improving in governance disclosure will be reflected in firm value. While the coefficient on INST remains negative and significant, the coefficients on INSIDE, BLOCK and DTV change their signs. To further control for endogenous problem, we now turn to the 2SLS estimates as shown in Column 2, Table 8. When controls for fixed effects, the evidence here is consistent with optimal choice 28 of all the control mechanisms except for use of debt. As our focus is on changes of control mechanisms in the fixed effects specification, this may imply that increase in debt borrowing increases firm valuation in the short-run but does not optimally maximize the long-run firm value. 7. Corporate Governance and Stock Return Bauer et al. (2003) construct value weighted corporate governance factor portfolios to analyze the impact of corporate governance on equity returns. Their approach is as follows: First, rank firms on the basis of their corporate governance ratings. Second, assign the 20% (25%) of companies with the highest ranking to the “good governance portfolio” and the bottom 20% (25%) to the “bad governance portfolio” for the EMU (U.K.) sample. Third, compute the equal weighted returns to a zero investment strategy, which is holding a long position in the “good governance portfolio” and a short position in the “bad governance portfolio”. They report an annual return of 2.1% for the EMU portfolio and 7.1% for the U.K. portfolio from January 1997 till July 2002. When controls for risk factors with Carhart’s (1997) four factor model, Bauer et al. find a positive, though statistically insignificant abnormal return for U.K. firms. As in Bauer et al. (2003), we build a zero investment portfolio by buying the 20% highest ranked firms and selling the 20% lowest ranked firms. The portfolios are reset in each January from year 1999 to year 2003, assuming the corporate governance scorecard is available in January for each firm. Since such assumption is not valid for every firm, we reset the portfolios in April and July respectively to do the robust check. As the results are qualitatively similar, we only report the January results. Our sample period is from January 1999 to December 2003. Even though the governance level is important to equity returns, a more interesting question is whether the change of governance has any association with stock returns. We employ the similar methodology to construct another zero investment strategy. Specifically, all firms are ranked on the basis of the one year change of their corporate governance ratings. We assign the 20% of companies with the greatest improvement in the ratings to the “improvement portfolio”. The 20% of companies with the largest deterioration in the ratings are allocated to the “deterioration portfolio”. These portfolios 29 are reset in January of each year from 1999 to 2003. For each of the strategies, we compute both the value weighted and the equal weighted cumulative returns. Table 9 presents the annual returns for the “good governance portfolio” and “bad governance portfolio”. And Table 10 demonstrates the annual returns for the “improvement portfolio” and “deterioration portfolio”. Table 9: Annual returns for the “good governance portfolio” and “bad governance portfolio” buy and hold lowest 20% panel A: value weighted 1999 0.3312 2000 0.2406 2001 -0.0954 2002 -0.2254 2003 0.2254 1999-2003 zero investment portfolio panel B: equal weighted 1999 0.8766 2000 0.1996 2001 -0.0618 2002 -0.2171 2003 0.5539 1999-2003 zero investment portfolio highest 20% 0.3488 -0.1817 -0.0578 -0.2295 0.2488 -0.3924 0.3920 0.0125 0.0336 -0.1702 0.3001 -0.5196 Panel A is for value weighted returns. Panel B is for equal weighted returns. Lowest 20% means “bad governance portfolio” and highest 20% means “good governance portfolio”. Zero investment portfolio return is the return from buying “good governance portfolio” and selling “bad governance portfolio”. It is rebalanced in January 1999, January 2000, January 2001, January 2002 and January 2003, held till December 2003. Reported returns in Table 9 contradict our expectations. The 5-year cumulative returns for the zero investment strategy are negative and big in magnitude. Our results are in clear contrast with those of Bauer et al., who find an annual return of 7.1% for U.K. firms from January 1997 till July 2002. Besides the difference in sample period, our strategy differs with theirs in the following ways: First, our portfolios are rebalanced whereas theirs are not. Since they assign the 2001 ratings backwards, their portfolio construction is kind of ex post. In contrast, our portfolios are formed ex ante each year when the corporate governance ratings are available. Second, since our sample is about twice as much in size as theirs, we choose 20% instead of their 25% as cutoff. Therefore, 30 our portfolios are more representative. If it goes as hypothesized, extreme values should bring about better results. But our findings fail to support it. When we look into the returns for individual year, we cannot detect a clear pattern for the value weighted portfolios. As for the equal weighted portfolios, it seems that for the “good years” when stock returns are positive (1999, 2000 and 2003), “bad governance portfolio” performs better, whereas for “bad years” when stock returns are negative (2001 and 2002), “good governance portfolio” outperforms “bad governance portfolio”. This may indicate that governance matters more in bad years, especially for small firms (indicated by equal weighted portfolio), or perhaps this pattern is just coincidental. Table 10: Annual returns for the “improvement portfolio” and “deterioration governance portfolio” buy and hold lowest 20% panel A: value weighted 1999-2000 -0.0989 2000-2001 -0.1019 2001-2002 -0.2532 2002-2003 0.2654 1999-2003 zero investment portfolio panel B: equal weighted 1999-2000 0.0353 2000-2001 -0.1389 2001-2002 -0.2534 2002-2003 0.5094 1999-2003 zero investment portfolio highest 20% 0.0681 0.0224 -0.2019 0.2562 0.3667 0.0256 0.0994 -0.1734 0.3973 0.1760 Panel A is for value weighted returns. Panel B is for equal weighted returns. Lowest 20% means “deterioration portfolio” and highest 20% means “improvement portfolio”. Zero investment portfolio return is the return from buying “improvement portfolio” and selling “deterioration portfolio”. It is rebalanced in January 2000, January 2001, January 2002 and January 2003, held till December 2003. Next, let us move on to the findings from buying “improvement portfolio” and selling “deterioration portfolio”. They are given in Table 10. Both the value weighted and the equal weighted portfolios support our hypothesis that firms with improved governance disclosure outperform those with deteriorated governance disclosure worsened in terms of equity returns. Overall, the zero-investment strategy leads to a 5-year cumulative return of 36.7 percent for the value weighted portfolio and 17.6 percent for the equal weighted portfolio. Combining with the previous findings in firm 31 valuation measured with Tobin’s Q, our results suggest that current improvement in governance disclosure is valued but only partly incorporated in the present stock price. These findings have some implications for investors. When they invest in “improvement portfolio”, they may earn excess returns because good governance will be translated in higher valuation in the future. But we should remember that these findings are not adjusted for any risk style yet. When investigating the yearly portfolio returns, similarly as before, it seems that governance is more important in valuation for “bad years” than for “good years”. This pattern shows up in both the value weighted and the equal weighted portfolios. So far, we cannot remove the possibility of coincidence. To account for the risk factors documented in previous stock return studies, we employ the Carhart’s (1997) four-factor model, which is estimated by: RLSt 1 ( Rmt R ft ) 2 SMBt 3 HML t 4 MOM t t (16) where RLSt is the excess monthly return of the zero-investment portfolio, Rmt is the monthly return on the market portfolio and Rft is the monthly risk-free interest rate. SMB (Small Minus Big) is the monthly return on a size factor portfolio. HML (High Minus Low) is the monthly return on a book-to-price factor-mimicking portfolio based on the book-to-market ratio. MOM (Momentum) is the monthly return on a momentum factor portfolio. The constant, α, represents the excess return an investor could have earned pursuing this investment strategy. Table 11: Four-factor model (“good governance portfolio” minus “bad governance portfolio”) Independent Variables Value Weighted (1) α ( R M R F - 0 . 0 0 3 3 5 4 - 0 . 5 2 7 6 1 1 0 . ( S M M ( M O . - L ( Adjusted R no. of obs. 2 2 1 0 4 3 . 8 8 0 6 2 9 9 9 9 * * 3 ) 0 . 8 2 8 8 3 6 - 0 . 0 4 4 7 5 2 0 . 5 5 0 ( 7 5 . 0 0 4 0 6 8 0 . 0 5 0 3 9 8 0.0224 60 ) ) 0 . 0 0 3 2 8 8 0 . 7 6 9 6 5 3 ( ) 7 0 - - 0 4 - - M 9 2 B ( H 2 ) Equal Weighted (2) ( ( ( . 1 1 . 4 6 3 1 5 5 2 5 ) 1 9 6 ) - 0 . 0 0 6 9 4 9 - 0 . 0 8 0 5 3 1 - 0 . 0 7 6 2 4 1 - 1 . 0 8 5 2 1 2 - 0 . 0 4 6 5 4 6 - 0 . 9 3 8 4 4 3 ) ) ) 0.0405 60 Numbers in parentheses are t statistics. Dependent variable is zero investment portfolio returns from buying 32 “good governance portfolio” and selling “bad governance portfolio”. It is rebalanced in January 2000, January 2001, January 2002 and January 2003, held till December 2003. * Means significant at 0.10 level (two-tailed). ** Means significant at 0.05 level (two-tailed). *** Means significant at 0.01 level (two-tailed). The results of estimating Equation (16) for the “good minus bad” are shown in Table 11. As indicated by the alpha, the performance differential between the “good governance portfolio” and the “bad governance portfolio is negative but not statistically significant. With respect to size, value versus growth, and momentum the portfolios do not seem to differ substantially. For value weighted portfolio, the coefficient on RMRF is significantly positive, revealing that the “good governance portfolio” has a higher exposure to market risk than the “bad governance portfolio”. However, it is not the case for equal weighted portfolio. Table 12: Four-factor model (“improvement portfolio” minus “deterioration portfolio”) Independent Variables Value Weighted (1) α ( R M R F ( S M B 0 . 0 0 9 8 9 2 1 . 4 3 9 6 1 6 M L ( M O M ( Adjusted R no. of obs. 2 ) - 0 . 0 8 5 8 9 5 - 0 . 5 8 0 3 6 4 - 0 . 1 6 0 6 2 3 ( H - 1 . 0 2 3 4 8 . 1 4 8 9 0 8 1 . 4 1 5 0 7 5 0 . 0 7 0 8 5 9 0 . 7 5 3 2 8 5 0.0275 60 ( ) ) 0 Equal Weighted (2) ( ( ) ( 0 . 0 0 5 6 9 6 1 . 0 9 8 9 3 3 0 . 0 8 1 6 9 2 - 0 . 7 2 0 9 8 4 - 0 . 0 1 6 2 8 6 - 0 . 1 3 1 9 6 8 - 0 . 0 6 4 3 8 2 - 1 . 0 ) ) - ( . 0 1 4 0 . 1 4 7 6 9 9 6 4 4 ) 2 8 5 ) ) 4 3 ) 0.0391 60 Numbers in parentheses are t statistics. Dependent variable is zero investment portfolio returns from buying “improvement portfolio” and selling “deterioration portfolio”. It is rebalanced in January 2000, January 2001, January 2002 and January 2003, held till December 2003. * Means significant at 0.10 level (two-tailed). ** Means significant at 0.05 level (two-tailed). *** Means significant at 0.01 level (two-tailed). Table 12 presents the alphas for the “improvement minus deterioration” portfolio. It is the abnormal return on a zero investment strategy that buys the top 20% firms with greatest improvement in governance ratings and sells the bottom 20% firms with largest deterioration in governance ratings. For the value weighted (equal weighted) setup, the alpha is 98.9 (57.0) basis points per month, or about 11.9 (6.8) percent per year. Although the abnormal returns are economically large, they are not statically significant at normal level. Comparing our results for the portfolios based on change of governance to those of 33 Bauer et al. 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Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 27, No. 9 & No. 10, 1311-1342 38 Appendix: Variable Definitions SCORE: corporate governance index obtained from the corporate governance disclosure scorecard SCORE_C: one year change of SCORE = SCORE t SCORE t 1 INSIDE: percentage of beneficial shares held by executive directors and non-executive directors INST: percentage of shares held by institutions BLOCK: percentage of shares held by shareholders who have more than 5% of shares of the firm FSIZE: ln(sales) K/S: Property, Plant and Equipment to sales Y/S: operating income/sales RDUM: a dummy variable equal to unity if R&D data are available, and zero otherwise R&D/K: R&D expenditure to Property, Plant and Equipment Q: [(No. of common shares ×Price of shares at calendar year end) + Book value of Preferred Capital + Book value of total liabilities]/ Book value of total assets ROA: Net Income/Total Assets LTD STD PFD CASHS V DTV: D/V= where V = liabilities-total+ preferred capital+ market value of equity LTD = Book value of long-term debt STD = Book value of short-term debt PFD = preferred capital CASHS = cash and short-term investments REG: 1 for a firm in a regulated industry, viz. public utility, railroad (i.e., primary 3-digit SIC code=40, 48, 49, 60, 61 or 63), 0 otherwise. ADR: a dummy variable equal to unity if a firm trade ADRs on a major US exchange (NYSE, AMEX, or NASDAQ), zero otherwise. The data is obtained from JP Morgan website. Since it is only available for current year, we assigned the current number to 39 previous years as well, namely, there is no variation for the ADR dummy for each firm over time. OUTDIRE: average number of directorships held by non-executive directors in unaffiliated firms TENURE: average years of directors stayed in board NOD: total number of directors RISK_D: a dummy variable equal to unity if RISK data are available, and zero otherwise RISK: the standard deviation of idiosyncratic stock price risk, calculated as the stand error of the residuals from a CAPM model estimated using daily data for the period covered by the annual sample RDAI_D: a dummy variable equal to unity if data required to estimated RDAI is available, and otherwise equal to zero RDAI: average RDA for the 2-digit SIC industry of the firm NINSTI: average number of institutional owners for the 2-digit SIC industry of the firm. The data is obtained from SHEREWORLD. Since it is only available for current year, we assigned the current number to previous years as well, namely, there is no variation for the NINSTI for each firm over time. CR: operating cash flow return on firm value = OCF V where V = liabilities-total+ preferred capital+ market value of equity OCF = sales – cost of goods sold – selling, general and administrative expense + depreciation RDA: research and development expenditures/Total assets 40