Contribution of pulmonary function tests to diagnosis in patients with respiratory complaints: a prospective cohort study Marc Decramer1 MD, Wim Janssens1 MD, Eric Derom2 MD, Guy Joos2 MD, Vincent Ninane3 MD, René Deman4 MD, Dirk Van Renterghem5 MD, Giuseppe Liistro6 MD, Kris Bogaerts 7 PhD and the Belgian Pulmonary Function Study Investigators* 1Respiratory Division, University Hospital, University of Leuven, Belgium 2Respiratory Division, University Hospital, University of Ghent, Belgium 3Respiratory Division, St.Pierre Hospital, Brussels, Belgium 4Respiratory Division, Groeninge Hospital, Kortrijk, Belgium 5Respiratory Division, AZ St Jan Brugge-Oostende, Belgium 6Respiratory Division, St Luc University Hospital, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium 7I-Biostat, University of Leuven and University of Hasselt Belgium Address for correspondence: Marc Decramer, MD, PhD Professor of Medicine Respiratory Division University Hospital Herestraat 49 3000 Leuven Belgium Marc.Decramer@uzleuven.be 1 Summary Background. Few studies on the diagnostic value of pulmonary function testing are currently available. Methods, therefore, we undertook the present study (NCT01297881) to determine the diagnostic contribution of the four basic pulmonary function tests: spirometry, lung volumes, airway resistance and diffusing capacity. 1,023 new outpatients without clear diagnosis, presenting to a pulmonologist with respiratory complaints in one of the 33 participating hospitals, were included and eventually 979 patients were analyzed. They underwent the four abovementioned pulmonary function tests and all other tests required to establish a firm diagnosis. The clinical history and pulmonary function data were presented to local focus groups, who established differential diagnoses and a preferred diagnosis after each step, being blinded to the other additional investigations. The final diagnosis was established by the attending physician on the basis of all the investigations performed, and validated as gold standard diagnosis by the local focus group. The primary outcome was a score determined by one divided by the number of differential diagnoses corrected for the accuracy of the diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were the number of differential diagnoses and the percentage of correct diagnoses. The present publication represents the final analysis. Findings. The primary outcome score averaged 0.226 after spirometry, and increased to 0.296, 0.373 and 0.540 after measurement of lung volumes, resistance and diffusing capacity, respectively (P<0.0001 for each step). This score indicated a progressive reduction of the number of differential diagnoses and an increased accuracy of the diagnosis. This was further confirmed by the observed reduction in the number of differential diagnoses (4.2, 3.4, 3.0, and 2.4, respectively, P<0.0001 for each step) and the increase in the percentage correct preferred diagnoses (61, 65, 70, and 77%, respectively, P<0.0001 for each step). Interpretation. This study demonstrates that each of the classical pulmonary function tests contributes significantly and independently to the final diagnosis in patients with 2 respiratory complaints. As a consequence, pulmonary physicians should perform these four tests as a battery when confronted with new patients. Funded by the Belgian Society of Pneumology. Word count: 333 Key words: Pulmonary function testing, diagnosis, differential diagnosis, respiratory disease, sensitivity, specificity 3 Introduction Although pulmonary function testing is routinely used in the diagnosis of respiratory disease, few methodologically well-designed studies are presently available on the diagnostic value of these tests. This was evidenced by a recent report of the Belgian Expert Center for Health Care published in 20071, showing that for most of the routinely used pulmonary function tests, no symptoms based studies i.e. studies examining a group of patients defined on the basis of their symptoms, supporting their diagnostic value and reaching sufficient methodological quality were available. Those that were available were generally of limited quality2. In addition, only few disease based studies i.e. studies defining a group of patients on the basis of their disease, of sufficient quality were found with systematic literature review. Hence, use of pulmonary function tests was found to be primarily based on expert opinion and on international disease oriented guidelines, predominantly dealing with asthma3-6 and COPD7-10 and consequently, reimbursement was questioned by the health authorities. The view that few well designed studies were performed examining the contribution of different pulmonary function tests to the diagnosis of pulmonary disease is widely held by experts in this field11-13. This is in contrast with the relatively large body of evidence demonstrating the prognostic value of these tests14-18. The present study was designed to critically assess the diagnostic accuracy in pulmonary practice of four classically used pulmonary function tests: spirometry, absolute lung volumes measured with a body plethysmograph, airways resistance and diffusing capacity. This was done by performing the abovementioned tests in a total of 1,023 new outpatients presenting with respiratory complaints to one of the participating pulmonary practices and subsequently, examining their contribution to the reduction of the number of differential diagnoses and to the accuracy of the diagnosis. 4 Materials and methods Overall design The study was a prospective cohort study in which all consecutive new outpatients with respiratory complaints and without established diagnosis seen in two particular time periods, were enrolled. These time periods ran from June 6th till September 12th 2011, and from January 16th till June 12th 2012, respectively. Respiratory complaints were recorded using a symptom list, consisting of standard complaints and questions on how long these were present and how often they occurred. Other relevant matters could be added in text. These patients underwent spirometry, plethysmographic measurement of absolute lung volumes, airway resistance and measurement of diffusing capacity, always in that order. In further follow-up, the attending pulmonologist performed all required tests to establish a firm diagnosis including other pulmonary function tests (reversibility, histamine challenge test, exhaled NO, pulmonary compliance,…), biochemistry, imaging, ECG, echocardiography etc… The study was registered as NCT01297881 on clinicaltrials.gov. The cases were subsequently presented to local focus groups consisting of practicing pulmonologists with experience in pulmonary function testing. This was done using the existing LOK/GLEM network in Belgium which is a network of 24 groups of 20-25 pulmonologists who meet 4 times per year to discuss issues that relate to quality and cost-effectiveness of care. The cases were presented to these groups in four steps,: first, the history, clinical examination and the results of spirometry; second, results of absolute lung volumes; third, results of measurements of airway resistance; fourth, results of measurement of the diffusing capacity. For all variables, both absolute values and values expressed as a percentage of predicted were presented. For diffusing capacity, both DLCO and KCO were offered. After each step, the local focus group that was blinded to the additional clinical data, was asked to determine the possible differential diagnoses and a preferred diagnosis. Finally, the attending pulmonologist established a final diagnosis and if 5 necessary also a side diagnosis, on the basis of all the clinical data he had obtained. If e.g. a patient would have kyphoscoliosis and asthma, then asthma could be the final diagnosis and kyphoscoliosis the side diagnosis or vice versa. This final diagnosis and a potential side diagnosis were also validated by the local focus group and then coined gold standard diagnosis. Eighteen out of the existing 24 local quality groups participated in the present study. The differential diagnoses, preferred diagnoses, side diagnoses and gold standard diagnoses were chosen by ticking from a list of 14 predefined diagnoses. This list is shown in Appendix 1. The design of the study is schematically represented in Figure 1. The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of the University Hospital Leuven, which acted as the leading Ethics Committee and by all the Ethics Committees of the participating hospitals which acted as subsidiary Ethics Committees. The list of the participating hospitals is shown in Appendix 2. For the interpretation of pulmonary function tests the ATS/ERS interpretation strategy was followed19. As the most frequent diagnoses were expected to be asthma and COPD, special attention was devoted to the diagnosis of these conditions. Diagnosis of COPD required demonstration of airflow obstruction defined as an FEV1/FVC ratio below lower limit of normal or alternatively, a reduced FEV1 associated with normal total lung capacity, TLC. Diagnosis of asthma in the absence of airflow obstruction and full reversibility and in addition to a history compatible to asthma, required clearly elevated exhaled NO fractions or hyperreactivity to histamine. If the latter were absent and all pulmonary function tests were normal we concluded to “no primary pulmonary abnormality” or “other disease” if another disease e.g. sinusitis was diagnosed. The term “other obstructive disease” encompassed patients with “bronchiectasis”, “cystic fibrosis” or “small airway disease”. The latter diagnosis was made in the presence of reduced expiratory flow rates with normal FEV1 and FEV1/FVC ratios > LLN, but lower than 0.7. Other diseases were diagnosed according to international guidelines (see study protocol, Appendix 3). These rules were developed in a preliminary study performed by the Steering Committee (a committee consisting of 10 leading investigators, who initiated the 6 study) in their centers, in which 79 patients were enrolled. This preliminary study was completely separate from the present study and these patients were not included in the present study. The primary outcome variable (see below) was also developed in that study. The present rules were agreed beforehand and their application was supervised by a member of the Steering Committee, who assisted to all the meetings of the local focus groups. Outcomes As the primary outcome, we used a score that combined both the number of differential diagnoses and the accuracy of the preferred diagnosis, in one. This score was developed in the abovementioned preliminary study. It was defined as 1/number of differential diagnoses, provided the gold standard diagnosis was part of the differential diagnoses. Hence, if there were 4 differential diagnoses, the score would be 0.25 and if there were only 2, the score would be 0.5. In addition, this score was corrected for the accuracy of the diagnosis. This was done by subtracting a penalty if the gold standard diagnosis was part of the set of differential diagnoses, but not the preferred diagnosis. The correction consisted of 1/28, that is half of 1 over the 14 differential diagnoses. We divided by 2, because otherwise the penalty could result in a score of 0. Hence the lowest score needed to be 1/14 (=2/28) minus if indicated, 1/28 penalty, yielding a score of 1/28. Coming back to the example above: if there were 4 differential diagnoses and the preferred diagnosis was the correct diagnosis, the score remained 0.25. If there were only two differential diagnoses but the preferred diagnosis was not the correct diagnosis, the score would be 0.5-1/28=0.464. Furthermore, if there was only one differential diagnosis, which was by definition also the preferred diagnosis, and it was also the correct diagnosis a score of 27/28 was attributed (close to 1). This was done to avoid a score of 1. If the correct diagnosis was not part of the differential diagnoses, the lowest possible score 1/28 (close to 0) was given. This was done to avoid scores of 0. 7 Hence, the score penalized a high number of differential diagnoses and a wrong preferred diagnosis. The secondary outcomes were the % correct preferred diagnoses corresponding to the gold standard diagnosis after each step and the number of differential diagnoses, but now limited to the patients with a correct preferred diagnosis only. Sensitivity analyses were all of the above analyses considering also the side diagnosis as being correct, if it corresponded to the gold standard diagnosis. Predefined subgroup analyses were done for patients with “COPD”, “asthma”, “ILD”, and “no primary pulmonary abnormality”. For these subgroups sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were also calculated in a posthoc analysis. Patients All consecutive new caucasian outpatients between 18 and 75 yrs. old were enrolled in the study. Patients needed to have respiratory symptoms (dyspnea, cough, sputum, wheezing etc..), but no diagnosis at the time of consultation. They were required to be able to perform spirometry and gave written informed consent. Patients were excluded if they had diagnosed respiratory disease, a heart attack during the last 6 months, pneumothorax, hemoptysis, suspicion of tuberculosis or were not capable of performing pulmonary function testing. A total of 1,023 patients were recruited in the study. Demographic characteristics At the outpatient visit classical demographic characteristics such as age, gender, weight, height, BMI, smoking history, pack years, the presence of allergy/atopy, previous pulmonary disease, reflux and ear nose throat problems were recorded. All variables were captured in a web-based application which was accessible to the participating centers, although their access was limited to the patients recruited by number of this particular center. 8 Symptoms Symptoms were recorded via the web-based application. The symptoms recorded included: cough, wheezing, dyspnea, fatigue, sputum production, thoracic pain and hemoptysis. Symptoms were also recorded using the COPD Assessment Testquestionnaire20, which was developed for COPD, but was also used for the other diseases in the present study. This questionnaire captures cough, sputum, chest pain, dyspnea during moderate exercise, limitation of activities of daily living, feeling of security when leaving the house, sleep, and energy level. Pulmonary function testing All pulmonary function tests were performed using equipment that was available in the participating pulmonary function laboratory. This consisted of a variety of equipment including: Sensormedics Whole Body Plethysmograph, Care fusion, Vilvoorde, Belgium; Masterscreen Jaeger, Care fusion, Vilvoorde, Belgium; Medisoft boybox 5500, Sorinnes, Belgium; Ganshoren-Medisoft Hyp’air compact, Chaumont-Gistoux, Belgium. All tests were performed according to the ATS/ERS standards21. Lung volumes and airway resistance were measured with a constant volume body plethysmograph, at a breathing frequency of 35-40/min. Diffusing capacity was measured by single-breath breath-holding carbon monoxide gas transfer method22. Values were corrected for alveolar volume, but not for hemoglobin concentration. Further technical details of the measurements are summarized in the study protocol (Appendix 3). Normal values were those of Quanjer et al23. The interpretation strategy of ATS/ERS was used19. All original data were entered in the web-based application, which calculated reference values, % predicted values and lower limits of normal values. These values were provided to the focus groups for their discussion. Consistency of the data was checked by a central study coordinator, before meetings of the focus groups and data analysis were started. 9 Other tests After pulmonary function testing, the attending pulmonologist performed all tests required to establish a diagnosis. These tests included: chest x-ray and CT-scan, reversibility testing, measurement of exhaled NO, histamine challenge test, skin prick testing, biochemistry, blood gases, cardiac echography, ECG etc.. The attending pulmonologist indicated which tests he had performed and which in his view contributed most to his final diagnosis. The tests were used at the discretion of the attending pulmonologist. No algorithms specifically designed for this study were used. Statistical Analysis The statistical analysis plan is attached as Appendix 4. All analyses were done using SAS version 9.2.The primary outcome was analyzed after logistic transformation in order to stabilize its variance and normalize its distribution, using a linear mixed model 24. The main structure contained 4 time points and an unstructured variance-covariance matrix was used in order to properly account for the dependence between the different measurements. The mixed effect model used the logit of the score as dependent variable and the indicators for the different tests as independent variables. An unstructured variance-covariance matrix was used. The primary hypothesis was H0:µ1=µ2=µ3=µ4 vs. H1: otherwise with µi, i=1…, 4 was the mean transformed score after the i-th pulmonary function test. In case of a significant difference at the 0.05 level, all pairwise tests between the different time points were performed with a Bonferroni-Holm correction for multiple testing25. The secondary endpoint, the percentage of correct preferred diagnoses at each point in time was modeled using a logistic generalized estimating equation (GEE) model. The GEE model for the percentages of correct final diagnoses modeled a binary variable for correct diagnosis as dependent variable and the indicators for the different tests as independent variables using a logit link and an independent working correlation matrix. 10 The number of differential diagnoses in the subgroup of patients with a correct preferred diagnosis was analyzed using a Poisson generalized estimating equation (GEE) model. The GEE Poisson model for the number of differential diagnoses modeled the number of differential diagnoses as dependent variable and the indicators for the different tests as independent variables using a log link and an unstructured working correlation matrix. In case of a significant difference at the 0.05 level, pairwise comparisons were performed for both models with a Bonferroni-Holm correction for multiple testing. No formal sample size calculation was performed before the study. As a sensitivity analysis the above analyses were repeated considering the preferred diagnosis as correct if it or its side diagnosis corresponded to the gold standard diagnosis. Analyses were also repeated in the four predefined subgroup analyses defined above. Role of the funding source This study was supported by the Belgian Society of Pneumology. This support was limited to a grant of 10,000 euro to support the statistical analysis of the data. The funding source had no other role. MD, WJ and KB had access to the raw data. The corresponding author had full access to all the data and the final responsibility to submit for publication. Results Patient disposition and baseline data Patient disposition is schematically represented in Figure 2. Of the 1,285 patients screened, 1,023 patients were enrolled and eventually, 979 patients were analyzed. Baseline data are represented in Table 1. Symptoms are summarized in Table 2 and duration of symptoms is shown in Table 3. As can be seen the most prevalent presenting symptoms were dyspnea and cough, followed by sputum production and wheezing. 84 % of the patients already had symptoms for a few months or over 1 year, before they saw a pulmonologist. Baseline pulmonary function results are shown in Table 4. As can be seen 11 on the average the pulmonary function results were within normal limits, although obviously in a fraction of the patients either all or some of the tests were clearly abnormal as indicated by the median and lower and upper quartile values. The most frequently used and the, in the view of the attending pulmonologist, most contributing additional tests are shown in Table 5. The top three most performed tests were: chest x-ray (66%), reversibility testing (50%) and exhaled NO (32%). The most contributing tests in the judgment of the pulmonologist were reversibility testing (26%), provocation testing (25%) and CT-scan of the chest (15%). Diagnoses The distribution of the preferred diagnoses was as follows: Asthma (39%), COPD (23%), No primary pulmonary abnormality (16%), Other Obstructive disease (7%), ILD (4%), Hyperventilation syndrome (3%), Neuromuscular disease (2%), Obesity (2%), Cardiac failure (2%), Thoracic/Pleural disease (1%), Pulmonary Vascular Disease (1%), Systemic sclerosis (0%) and other diseases (3%). The relative frequency distribution of the differential diagnoses was similar. Table 6 summarizes the frequency of the preferred and differential diagnoses after each step. The gold standard diagnosis distribution was also similar and the final diagnosis of the attending pulmonologist was confirmed by the focus group in 838/979 (86%) of the cases. This figure was 200/222 (90%), 321/369 (87%), 35/41 (85%) and 142/158 (90%), for COPD, asthma, ILD, and no primary pulmonary abnormality, respectively. The discordant cases were virtually all localized in the disease categories asthma, COPD and other obstructive diseases. Side diagnoses were established by the attending pulmonologist in 465 out of 979 or 48 % of the cases, and by the focus groups in 411 out of 979 or 42 % of the cases. Primary outcome The results of the primary analysis are shown in Table 7. After clinical history and spirometry the back-transformed mean score was 0.226. It increased to 0.296, 0.373, and 12 0.540 after measurement of lung volumes, resistance and diffusion capacity, respectively. The increase with each of these steps was highly statistically significant (P <0.0001). Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analysis. The score was higher with each step in this analysis as now also a side diagnosis corresponding to the gold standard diagnosis was considered as a correct preferred diagnosis. Similar results were found in the four predefined subgroups (Table 8 A-D). In each of the subgroups, the increase in score was highly significant after each step (P<0.001). As can be seen in Table 8 the relative contribution of the different tests tended to differ in the different diagnostic groups. E.g. diffusing capacity tended to contribute more to the diagnosis of COPD and ILD, than to the diagnosis of asthma and no primary pulmonary abnormality. Secondary analyses Similarly, the mean number of differential diagnoses in patients with a correct final diagnosis was reduced from 4.2 after spirometry, to 3.4, 3.0 and 2.4, after measurement of lung volumes, resistance and diffusion capacity, respectively. Also each of these reductions was highly statistically significant (P <0.0001). Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analysis. All of the pairwise comparisons showed a highly significant difference (P < 0.0001), in the secondary analysis as well as in the sensitivity analysis. The pairwise ratios in mean number of differential diagnoses ranged from 0.56 to 0.88. The GEE analysis of the number of correct diagnoses demonstrated 597/979 61% (95%CI 5864%) correct diagnoses after clinical history and spirometry. This increased to 637/979 65% (95%CI 62-68%), 683/979 70% (95%CI 67-73%) and 755/979 77% (95%CI 75-80%), after measurement of lung volumes, resistance and diffusing capacity, respectively. These data are shown in Table 9. Each of these steps reached statistical significance (P < 0.0001). Similar step increases were obtained in the sensitivity analysis. The number of correct diagnoses was 688/979 70%, 723/979 74%, 766/979 78% and 815/979 83%, after each step respectively. Here again the number is higher after each step, because also a correct side diagnosis was considered as a correct preferred diagnosis, if corresponding to the 13 gold standard. Similar results were found in the predefined subgroups. In patients with COPD the mean number of differential diagnoses in patients with a correct final diagnosis decreased from 4.3 after spirometry to 3.1, 2.8 and 2.0 after measurement of lung volumes, resistance and diffusing capacity, respectively (P<0.0001). Similarly in patients with asthma it decreased from 3.9 to 3.1, 2.7 and 2.3, respectively (P<0.0001). The number of correct diagnoses increased from 276/369 75% (95%CI 70-79%) to 285/369 77% (95%CI 73-82%), 293/369 79% (95%CI 75-84%) and 303/369 82% (95%CI 78-86%) (P=0.0154), in patients with asthma, while in patients with COPD it only clearly increased after measurement of diffusing capacity [184/222 83% (95%CI 78-88%) to 185/222 83% (95%CI 78-88%), 182/222 82% (95%CI 77-87%) and 207/222 93 % (95%CI 90-97%) (p=0.0005), respectively]. For the four subgroups sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive value all increased after each step (P-value ranging from 0.00017 to 0.0161) except for specificity in the ILD group (P=0.34). For patients with asthma e.g. sensitivity increased from 276/369 75% (95%CI 70-79%) to 285/369 77% (95%CI 73-82%), 293/369 79% (95%CI 7584%) and 303/369 82% (95%CI 78-86%), respectively (P= 0.0161); specificity from 451/610 74% (95%CI 70-77%) to 456/610 75% (95%CI 71-78%), 498/610 82% (95%CI 79-85%) and 528/610 87% (95%CI 84-89%), respectively (P<0.0001); negative predictive value from 451/544 83% (95%CI 80-86%) to 456/540 84% (95%CI 81-88%), 498/574 87% (95%CI 8490%) and 528/594 89% (95%CI 86-91%), respectively (P=0.0001) and positive predictive value from 276/435 63% (95%CI 59-68%) to 285/439 65% (95%CI 60-69%), 293/405 72% (95%CI 68-77%) and 303/385 79% (95%CI 75-83%), respectively (P<0.0001). Discussion The present study clearly demonstrated that in the present stepwise comparative cohort study each of the four classical pulmonary function tests (spirometry, lung volumes, airway resistance and diffusing capacity) significantly contributed to reduction 14 of the number of differential diagnoses and the increase in the percentage correct preferred diagnoses. The relative reduction in the mean number of differential diagnoses ranged from 12% to 20% per test, and the increase in the percentage of correct final diagnoses ranged from 4 % to 7% per test. Hence, each of these tests had an independent and significant diagnostic value. Moreover, after the four tests on average, only 2 differential diagnoses were left and the % correct diagnoses amounted to 77%, showing that the four pulmonary function tests combined had an important diagnostic yield. We believe that this is an important clinical finding as at present very few well-designed studies were published supporting the additional diagnostic value of other pulmonary function tests besides spirometry, in an unselected group of patients without prior diagnosis11-13. Similar results were obtained in the predefined subgroups COPD, asthma, ILD and no primary pulmonary abnormality. We are not aware of any similar study conducted before. This study also clearly shows that after history, clinical examination and spirometry, a diagnosis is rarely certain. This would be the case if there only would be one differential diagnosis. The latter occurred only in 3 out of 222 cases (1.4%) with a diagnosis of COPD and in 11 out of 369 cases (3%) in patients with a diagnosis of asthma. After the 4 tests these numbers were 114 out of 222 cases (51%) with a diagnosis of COPD and 105 out of 369 cases (28%) with a diagnosis of asthma. In the remaining cases the diagnosis of asthma was further corroborated by exhaled NO and histamine provocation testing, whereas the diagnosis of COPD was further supported by CT-scan. Hence, the present data clearly demonstrate that in these frequent lung diseases more extensive pulmonary function testing clearly contributes to diagnosis. The strengths of this study include its size, prospective design, validation of the diagnosis by focus groups of pulmonary physicians, the inclusion of nearly all consecutive patients seen by the participating pulmonary physicians and its real life circumstances in which an unselected group of patients was examined in a normal outpatient setting. However, the present study also suffers from a number of limitations. First, it only examines the four “classical” pulmonary function tests and does not address other tests that were shown to be of 15 significant diagnostic value in specific disease entities. These include: exhaled NO and histamine or methacholine challenge testing, considered to be useful in the diagnosis of asthma26,27, reversibility testing which has been challenged repeatedly28,29 and measurement of pulmonary compliance shown to be useful in the diagnosis of interstitial lung disease and sarcoidosis30-33. Second, the outcomes measured essentially were a score related to the number of differential diagnoses and the percentage correct preferred diagnoses, but we did not estimate the degree of certainty of a diagnosis which clearly also will vary with the stepwise application of pulmonary function tests. This was largely due to the fact that we could not find a reliable and validated way to measure this degree of certainty, although a scheme was developed for idiopathic interstitial pneumonia34. However, it is also clear that the number of differential diagnoses and the degree of certaintly of a diagnosis do not necessarily bear a simple relationship. Third, although the diagnoses and differential diagnoses were validated by focus groups of pulmonary physicians, a certain degree of bias based on the expected outcome of the study, may have been present. However, some degree of bias will always be present in such studies as we cannot eliminate the competence and experience of the pulmonary physicians in the interpretation of the clinical and pulmonary function data. In addition, we believe that this potential bias was minimal since the validation occurred in virtually public hearings of the focus groups, whose members in majority did not enroll patients in the present study. The attending physician presenting the cases was not involved in the final decision of the focus group. Fourth, the present study only provides information on the diagnostic value in the present setting i.e. new patients with an uncertain diagnosis at the time of the study. Hence, it does not clarify how pulmonary function tests perform in providing the basis for the adaptation of therapy, when repeated in patients with a known diagnosis. It also does not give insight in the prognostic value of the tests that may be present in a given clinical setting. It does not provide us with information on the diagnostic performance of other pulmonary function tests such as compliance measurements or provocation testing. Fifth, the present study only gives us 16 information on how the routinely used pulmonary function tests perform in a specialized population of patients seen by a pulmonologist. If this population were to be diluted in a larger group of patients with diagnoses to which pulmonary function tests cannot contribute directly e.g. sinusitis or cardiomyopathy, the final number of correct preferred diagnoses would be expected to be lower. The present population may also clearly differ from a population seen in general practice. Finally, the present study does not allow us to conclude which specific diagnostic paths are shortened by performance of more pulmonary function tests nor what the effect on the cost of a specific diagnostic path would be. It is also important to emphasize that the diagnostic information obtained from pulmonary function testing in the present study, may potentially be obtained from other tests as well. The diagnosis of asthma can be supported by the measurement of exhaled NO26 and CT-scan can contribute to the diagnosis of airway disease and emphysema35,36, while it definitely contributes to the diagnosis of ILD37 and sarcoidosis38. In the present study, the latter techniques were used to establish a final diagnosis, but their performance was not compared to the performance of the different pulmonary function tests. Hence, the present study does not demonstrate that these four pulmonary function tests are the only way to obtain a correct diagnosis, but rather that they represents a way to do this. In addition, it does not appear to be a bad way as eventually 77%, and if also a correct side diagnosis was taken into account even 83% of correct diagnoses were obtained, after performance of the four classical pulmonary function tests. In conclusion, the present study was designed as a prospective cohort study in new outpatients with respiratory complaints and an uncertain diagnosis. Diagnoses were established by a focus group of pulmonary physicians and compared with the gold standard for which all available diagnostic information was used. It demonstrated that in addition to spirometry, measurement of lung volumes, airway resistance and diffusing capacity significantly and independently contributed to the reduction of the number of differential diagnoses and establishment of the correct diagnosis. 17 Research in context Systematic Review The authors searched PubMed, Embase and Cochrane d-base, using the terms “pulmonary function testing and diagnosis and respiratory complaints” and “pulmonary function testing and differential diagnosis and respiratory complaints”. The search was restricted to publications in English and was performed in March 2013.All publications dealing with the subject of the present study were selected.Also references of retrieved papers and commonly used references to guidelines and statements were used. As stated in the article, no evidence is presently available on the contribution of different pulmonary function tests to diagnosis in respiratory disease. The present trial is to our knowledge the first systematic trial on how different pulmonary function tests contribute to the diagnosis in new patients with respiratory complaints. Interpretation The study shows that spirometry, measurement of lung volumes, airway resistance and diffusing capacity all independently contribute to diagnosis by reducing the number of differential diagnoses and increasing diagnostic accuracy. As a consequence, pulmonary physicians should use these four tests as a battery when confronted with new patients with respiratory complaints. Acknowledgements The writers thank the attending pulmonologists, the participating hospitals and the patients for their participation in the study. We thank the Belgian Society of Pneumology for their financial and moral support. We thank Mrs. Kristien De Bent, Ms. Erica Balligand and Mr. Geert Celis for their expert technical support and Mr. Jurgen Silence for the 18 development of the web-based application. Finally, we thank all the pulmonary function technicians of the participating hospitals. Conflict of interest statement None of the authors had any financial interests or received fees or grant support from any of the pulmonary function equipment companies. Contribution of the authors All of the authors contributed to the design of the study and the performance of the study. They also all were involved in the interpretation of the results. The first draft of the manuscript was written by the first author (MD). All of the other authors contributed to the further development of the manuscript. The decision to submit the manuscript was borne by the first author (MD). The Belgian Pulmonary Function study investigators R.Vanherreweghe (Algemeen Stedelijk Ziekenhuis, Aalst); R.Deman, S.Deryke, B.Ghesyens, M.Haerens, S.Maddens (AZ Groeninge, Kortijk); W.Bultynck, W.Temmerman, L.Van Zandweghe (AZ Sint Blasius, Dendermonde); R.De Pauw, C.Depuydt, C.Haenebalcke, V.Ringoet, D. Van Renterghem (AZ Sint Jan, Brugge); A.Carlier, D.Colle, C.De Cock, J.Lamont (AZ Maria Middelares, Gent); P.Brancaleone (CH Jolimont-Lobbes); M.Vander Stappen (CHR Haute Senne); R.Peché, Ph.Pierard, P.Quarré, A.Van Meerhaeghe (CHU, Charleroi); D.Cataldo, JL.Corhay, B.Duysinx, V.Heinen, M.Naldi, D.Nguyen, L.Renaud (CHU, Liège); M.Cotils, P.Duchatelet, A.Gocmen, C.Lenclud (Clinique Louis Caty-Baudour); Ph.Lebrun, J.Noel (Clinique Saint-Pierre, Ottignies); A.Frémault (Grand Hopital de Charleroi); Ph.Bertrand, B.Bouckaert, I.Demedts, P.Demuynck (Heilig Hart Ziekenhuis, Roeselare); E.Frans, A.Heremans, T.Lauwerier, J.Roelandts (Imelda, Bonheiden); G.Bral, 19 I.Declercq, I.Malysse (Jan Ypermanziekenhuis, Ieper); V.Van Damme (St. Andries Ziekenhuis, Tielt); Dr.Martinot (St. Elisabeth, Namur); P.Vandenbrande (St. Maarten Duffel, Mechelen); M.Bruyneel, I.Muylle, V.Ninane, (St. Pierre, Bruxelles); Ph.Collard, G.Liistro, B.Mwenge Gimbada, Th.Pieters, C.Pilette, F.Pirson, D.Rodenstein (UCL, Bruxelles); L.Delaunois, E.Marchand, O.Vandenplas (UCL, Mont-Godinne); W.De Backer, P.Germonpre, A.Janssens, A.Vrints (UZA, Antwerpen); M.Decramer, W.Janssens, P.Van Bleyenbergh, G.Verleden, W.Wuyts (UZ Gasthuisberg, Leuven); G.Brusselle, E.Derom, G. Joos, K.Tournoy, K.Vermaelen (UZ, Gent); P.Alexander, C.Gysbrechts (Ziekenhuis Ronse); L.Bedert, Dr.Bomans, Dr.De Beukelaar, E.De Droogh, D.Galdermans, Dr.Ingelbrecht, Dr.Lefebure, H.Slabbynck, Dr.Van Mulders, Dr.Van Schaardenburg, Dr.Verbuyst (ZNA, Antwerpen); M.Daenen (ZOL Genk). Tables Table 1. Baseline characteristics. Table 2. Symptoms at presentation. Table 3. Duration of symptoms. Table 4. Pulmonary function results. Table 5. Most frequently used and most contributing additional tests according of the attending pulmonologist. Table 6. Frequency of the preferred and differential diagnoses after each step. Table 7. Primary outcome of the study. Table 8. Primary outcome of the study in four predefined subgroups. Table 9. Secondary outcome, % correct final diagnoses using a logistic GEE (Generalized Estimating Equation) model. 20 Figure Legends Figure 1. Schematic overview of the study design. Figure 2. Overview of patient disposition. Figure 3. Histogram of the number of differential diagnoses in cases with COPD (left) and asthma (right), after the first step (upper panels) and the fourth step (lower panels). Number of words in the body of the text: 4,514 References 1. Van den Bruel A, Gailly J, Devriese S. Pulmonary function tests 2007. KCE report 60A. www.kce.fgov.be last accessed July 3rd 2013 2. Pratter MR, Curley FJ, Dubois J, Irwin RS. Cause and evaluation of chronic dyspnea in a pulmonary disease clinic. Arch Intern Med 1989; 149: 2277-2282. 3. Institute for Clinical Systems Improvement (ICSI). Diagnosis and outpatient management of asthma 2005. www.icsi.org last accessed July 3rd 2013 4. Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA). Global strategy for asthma management and prevention. 2012 Update. www.ginasthma.org last accessed July 3rd 2013 5. Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN), British Thoracic Society. British guideline on the management of asthma 2005. www.sign.ac.uk last accessed July 3rd 2013 6. 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Computed tomography-based biomarker provides unique signature for diagnosis of COPD phenotypes and disease progression. Nat Med 2012; 18: 1711-5. 37. Gulati M. Diagnostic assessment of patients with interstitial lung disease. Prim Care Respir J 2011; 20: 120-7. 38. Miller BH, Rosado-de-Christenson ML, McAdams HP, Fishback NF. Thoracic sarcoidosis: radiologic-pathologic correlation. Radiographics 1995; 15: 421-37. 24 Appendices Appendix 1. List of differential diagnoses. Appendix 2. List of participating hospitals. Appendix 3. Study protocol. Appendix 4. Statistical Analysis Plan. 25 Table 1. Baseline characteristics. Patient characteristic Age, yrs Value (N= 979) 53 (16) Males 503 (51%) CAT-score, units 14.8 (7.5) BMI, kg.m2 27 (6) Allergy/atopy 208 (21%) Previous Pulmonary Disease 139 (14%) Reflux 122 (12%) Ear-Nose-Throat problems 166 (17%) (Ex-) Smoker 586 (60%) Pack yrs* 27 (12;40) Data are median (IQR), n (%) or mean (SD). *Based on 516 patients, excluding non-smokers. 26 Table 2. Symptoms at presentation. History Value (N= 979) Cough 660 (67%) Wheezing 294 (30%) Dyspnea 727 (74%) Fatigue 131 (13%) Sputum production 321 (33%) Thoracic pain 143 (15%) Hemoptoe 12 (1%) CAT score 14 (9;20) Data are n (%) or median (IQR). 27 Table 3. Duration of symptoms. History Value (N=979) Complaints since* few months 337 (42%) 1 year or more 335 (42%) few weeks 65 (8%) one month 47 (6%) Others (1 day, few days, 1 week) 15 (2%) Previous consultation GP 605 (62%) Pulmonary function by GP 34 (3%) Referral** GP 212 (24%) own initiative 475 (54%) other specialist 192 (22%) Data are n (%). *Based on 799 patients; **Based on 879 patients. 28 Table 4. Pulmonary function results. Pulmonary function variable n Value (N= 979) % predicted (N=979) FVC (L) 979 3.5 (2.7;4.3) 99 (86;111) FEV1 (L) 979 2.6 (1.8;3.3) 89 (72;103) FEV1/VC 979 75 (66;81) 95 (85;103) TLC (L) 975 6.0 (1;7.1) 104 (92;115) RV (L) 975 2.4 (1.9;3.1) 120 (97;149) FRC (L) 967 3.5 (2.8;4.2) 113 (94;136) Raw (kPa.L.s-1) 966 0.43 (0.2;0.4) 132 (63;186) sGaw (s.kPa-1.L) 770 1.0 (0.7;1.4) 114 (80;161) TL,CO (mmol.min-1.kPa-1) 966 6.8 (5.2;8.6) 79 (64;91) KCO (mmol.min-1.kPa-1.L-1) 911 1.4 (1.2;1.6) 92 (78;106) Data are median (IQR). 29 Table 5. Most frequently used and most contributing additional tests according of the attending pulmonologist. Test Value (N=979) Top 10 most contributing Top 10 most frequently used Reversibility 230 (26%) 488 (50%) Provocation test 218 (25%) 264 (27%) CT-scan chest 128 (15%) 270 (28%) Chest x-ray 127 (14%) 645 (66%) Exhaled NO 77 (9%) 315 (32%) Ergospirometry 23 (3%) 68 (7%) Skin prick test 23 (3%) 261 (27%) Biopsy 11 (1%) Cardiac echography 8 (1%) Endoscopy 7 (1%) 91 (9%) Biochemistry 242 (25%) Blood gases 73 (7%) Data are n (%). 30 Table 6. Frequency of the preferred and differential diagnoses after each step. Differential diagnosis Preferred diagnosis N= 979 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 COPD 345 323 309 289 230 220 214 229 (35%) (33%) (32%) (30%) (23%) (22%) (22%) (23%) 907 877 776 607 435 439 405 385 (93%) (90%) (79%) (62%) (44%) (45%) (41%) (39%) 106 90 64 43 9 8 9 8 (11%) (9%) (6%) (4%) (1%) (1%) (1%) (1%) 508 414 340 282 57 63 72 68 (52%) (42%) (35%) (29%) (6%) (6%) (7%) (7%) 153 75 68 46 6 12 13 16 (16%) (8%) (7%) (5%) (1%) (1%) (1%) (2%) 130 58 57 37 7 8 7 10 (13%) (6%) (6%) (4%) (1%) (1%) (1%) (1%) 169 88 86 74 22 26 27 22 (17%) (9%) (9%) (8%) (2%) (3%) (3%) (2%) 272 147 133 100 25 34 33 40 Asthma Upper Airway Other obstructive Neuromuscular Thoracic/Pleural Obesity ILD 31 (28%) (15%) (14%) (10%) (3%) (3%) (3%) (4%) Systemic 150 72 63 35 1 0 0 5 sclerosis (15%) (7%) (6%) (4%) (<1%) (%) (0%) (1%) 217 150 137 81 27 23 16 11 (22%) (15%) (14%) (8%) (3%) (2%) (2%) (1%) 197 181 161 93 4 5 5 22 (20%) (18%) (16%) (10%) (<1%) (1%) (1%) (2%) 515 418 356 312 112 98 126 122 (53%) (43%) (36%) (32%) (11%) (10%) (13%) (12%) 147 131 109 97 26 21 29 24 (15%) (13%) (11%) (10%) (3%) (2%) (3%) (2%) 245 220 192 173 18 22 23 17 (25%) (22%) (20%) (18%) (2%) (2%) (2%) (2%) Cardiac failure Pulmonary vascular No abnormality Hyperventilation Other Data are n (%). 32 Table 7. Primary outcome of the study. Test Mean transformed score Back-transformed P-value* score (standard error) Spirometry -1.229 (0.035) 0.226 Lung volumes -0.868 (0.041) 0.296 < 0.0001 Resistance -0.520 (0.054) 0.373 < 0.0001 Diffusing capacity 0.162 (0.067) 0.540 < 0.0001 *P-value comparing the difference with the previous test. Score was defined by 1/number of differential diagnoses, provided the gold standard diagnosis was part of the differential diagnoses. The score was corrected for the accuracy of the diagnosis by attributing a score of 27/28 (= close to 1) if there was only one differential diagnosis and it was also the correct diagnosis, or 1/28 (= close to 0) if the correct diagnosis was not among the differential diagnoses. In case the gold standard was part of the differential diagnoses, but not the preferred diagnosis 1/28 was subtracted from the score. The transformed score corresponds to the score transformed by logistic transformation. The back-transformed score corresponds to the score transformed back to the original format.Table 8A. Primary outcome of the study. Test Mean transformed score COPD (standard error) Back-transformed P-value* score 33 Spirometry -1.210 (0.064) 0.230 Lung volumes -0.755 (0.066) 0.320 < 0.0001 Resistance -0.319 (0.108) 0.421 < 0.0001 Diffusing capacity 1.153 (0.148) 0.760 < 0.0001 * P-value comparing the difference with the previous test. Primary outcome of the study in the predefined subgroups: COPD (panel A), asthma (panel B), ILD (panel C) and no primary pulmonary abnormality (panel D). Same conventions as in Table 7. 34 Table 8B. Primary outcome of the study. Test Mean transformed score ASTHMA (standard error) Back-transformed P-value* score Spirometry -0.970 (0.050) 0.275 Lung volumes -0.525 (0.070) 0.372 < 0.0001 Resistance -0.081 (0.089) 0.480 < 0.0001 Diffusing capacity 0.251 (0.101) 0.562 < 0.0001 35 Table 8C. Primary outcome of the study. Test Mean transformed score ILD (standard error) Back-transformed P-value* score Spirometry -2.035 (0.193) 0.116 Lung volumes -1.560 (0.209) 0.174 < 0.0001 Resistance -1.443 (0.217) 0.191 < 0.0001 Diffusing capacity 0.391 (0.317) 0.596 < 0.0001 36 Table 8D. Primary outcome of the study. Test Mean transformed score Pulmonary (standard error) Back-transformed P-value* score abnormality Spirometry -1.262 (0.037) 0.221 Lung volumes -0.852 (0.045) 0.299 < 0.0001 Resistance -0.486 (0.058) 0.381 < 0.0001 Diffusing capacity 0.303 (0.074) 0.575 < 0.0001 37 Table 9. Secondary outcome, % correct final diagnoses using a logistic Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE) model. Test Proportion % P-value* Correct final diagnoses Spirometry 597/979 61 Lung volumes 637/979 65 < 0.0001 Resistance 683/979 70 < 0.0001 Diffusing capacity 755/979 77 < 0.0001 * P-value comparing the difference with the previous test. 38 New outpatients with respiratory symptoms but without diagnosis Spirometry with flow-volume curve Absolute volumes Resistance Diffusion capacity History Clinical Data LOK/GLEM meeting Frequency: 4/year Preferred diagnosis 1 Differential diagnoses set 1 Addition of spirometry with Flow-volume curve Preferred diagnosis 2 Differential diagnoses set 2 Addition of absolute volumes Preferred diagnosis 3 Differential diagnoses set 3 Addition of resistance Final diagnosis + side diagnosis Attending pulmonologist Preferred diagnosis 4 Differential diagnoses set 4 Addition of diffusion Laboratory results and imaging LOK/GLEM Final diagnosis + side diagnosis Gold standard Fig 1. 39 1,285 patients screened 262 excluded 29 disease already diagnosed 30 <18 yrs or >75yrs 49 not able to perform spirometry 64 preoperative spirometry 65 miscellaneous 1,023 patients enrolled 44 excluded from analysis 10 inadequate flow-volume loop 34 incomplete investigation 979 patients analysed Fig 2. 40 COPD Step 1 COPD Step 4 ASTHMA Step 1 ASTHMA Step 4 Fig 3. 41 Appendix 1. List of differential diagnosis (checklist). COPD Asthma Upper airway obstruction Other obstructive diseases including Bronchiectasis, Cystic fibrosis and Bronchiolitis. Neuromuscular disease Thoracic deformity Lung function abnormalities due to obesity* Interstitial lung disease Systemic sclerosis and other vasculitis Cardiac failure* Pulmonary vascular disease* No primary pulmonary abnormality Hyperventilation syndrome* Other diagnosis *Only if clinical evidence was present 42 Appendix 2. Participating Hospitals. 1 Algemeen Stedelijk Ziekenhuis, Aalst 18 Jan Yperman Ziekenhuis, Ieper 2 AZ Groeninge, Kortrijk 19 O.L.Vrouwziekenhuis, Aalst 3 AZ Sint Blasius, Dendermonde 20 St. Andreas Ziekenhuis,Tielt 4 AZ St. Jan, Brugge 21 St. Elisabeth, Namur 5 AZ St. Jozef, Turnhout 22 St. Jean, Bruxelles 6 AZ Maria Middelares, Gent 23 St. Maarten Duffel, Mechelen 7 CHU Brugman, Bruxelles 24 St. Pierre, Bruxelles 8 CHU, Charleroi 25 UCL, Mont-Godinne 9 CHU, Liège 26 UZA, Antwerpen 10 CHR de Namur 27 UZ Gasthuisberg, Leuven 11 Clinique Louis Caty-Baudour 28 UZ, Gent 12 Clinique Saint-Pierre, Ottignies 29 Virga Jesse, Hasselt 13 Cliniques Universitaires St Luc, 30 Ziekenhuis Jolimont Bruxelles 14 Grand Hospital de Charleroi 31 Ziekenhuis Ronse 15 Heilig Hart Ziekenhuis, Roeselare 32 ZNA, Antwerpen 16 Hopital de la Citadelle, Liège 33 ZOL, Genk 17 Imelda, Bonheiden 43