Hsu et al., 1 Long-term risk of recurrent peptic ulcer bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis: a 10-year nationwide cohort study Short title: Recurrent PUB in cirrhosis Yao-Chun Hsu1,2, Jaw-Town Lin1,3,4, Tzu-Ting Chen5, Ming-Shiang Wu3, Chun-Ying Wu2,5-7 1 Department of Internal Medicine, E-Da Hospital/I-Shou University, Kaohsiung; 2 Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung; 3 Division of Gastroenterology, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei; 4 Center for Health Policy Research and Development, National Health Research Institutes; Miaoli; 5 Division of Gastroenterology, Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taichung; 6 Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei; 7 Department of Life Sciences, National Chung-Hsing University, Taichung; all in Taiwan * Correspondence: Chun-Ying Wu, MD, MPH, PhD Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan 155, Sec. 2, Linong Street, Taipei 112, Taiwan E-mail: chun@vghtc.gov.tw Tel: +886-4-23592525 # 3304; Fax: +886-4-23741331 Hsu et al., 2 ABSTRACT Peptic ulcer bleeding leads to substantial morbidity and mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis, whose long-term risk of recurrent bleeding remains elusive. In order to elucidate the association between cirrhosis and peptic ulcer rebleeding, we conducted this nationwide cohort study by analyzing the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. From all patients (n=271,030) hospitalized because of peptic ulcer bleeding between January 1997 and December 2006, we identified 9,711 patients with liver cirrhosis and selected 38,844 non-cirrhotic controls matched with 1:4 proportion in age, gender, and use of gastroprotective agents. Cumulative incidences and hazard ratios were analyzed. The cumulative incidences of recurrent bleeding were significantly higher in cirrhotic patients than in controls (1 year: 17.0% vs. 11.9%, 5 year: 36.2% vs. 24.9%, and 10 years: 42.2% vs. 31.0%, all p<0.001). The excessive risk of rebleeding associated with cirrhosis was consistently found in stratified analyses. However, the hazard ratio diminished with age because the rebleeding incidence was high regardless of age in cirrhotic patients, whereas it rose incrementally with age in controls. The multivariate Cox regression analysis verified cirrhosis as an independent risk factor for recurrent peptic ulcer bleeding with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.43 (95% confidence interval: 1.36-1.50). Conclusion: Liver cirrhosis is independently associated with higher risk of recurrent peptic ulcer bleeding. The high rebleeding rate found in all cirrhotic patients with different demographic characteristics Hsu et al., 3 highlights the urgent needs for effective therapies to reduce this long-term risk. Keywords: peptic ulcer, bleeding, cirrhosis, age, national health insurance research database Hsu et al., 4 INTRODUCTION Acute upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding frequently occurs in patients with liver cirrhosis, with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) and peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) accounting for 60-70% and 20-30% of all episodes respectively (1-3). Not only is AVH a lethal complication of cirrhosis, but PUB has also been associated with substantial morbidity and mortality in cirrhotic patients (1, 4). A multi-center prospective research from Italy demonstrated that 10% of cirrhotic patients re-bled and 15% of them died within 6 weeks after an episode of acute non-variceal UGI bleeding (1). However, in contrast to AVH that has been extensively studied (5), existing literature focusing on cirrhotic patients with PUB remains strikingly sparse. Little is known about the natural history of PUB in patients with liver cirrhosis. Several factors are likely to predispose cirrhotic patients to hemorrhage from peptic ulcers. In addition to the acquired bleeding diathesis as a result of thrombocytopenia, dysregulated coagulopathy, endothelial dysfunction, bacterial infection, renal insufficiency, and hemodynamic alterations may also render these patients susceptible to bleeding from ulcers (6-10). Hospital-based studies have demonstrated consistently that cirrhosis was independently associated with risk of recurrent bleeding as well as mortality in patients with acute UGI hemorrhage, irrespective of the bleeding source (11-13). By prospectively following a PUB cohort of 738 individuals recruited from a single institute, Guglielmi and Hsu et al., 5 colleagues identified cirrhosis as an independent predictor for the short-term recurrent bleeding (12). Nevertheless, data from population-based research remained unavailable and the long-term risk of recurrent PUB has not been elucidated for patients with liver cirrhosis. In order to address the paucity of current knowledge regarding the natural history of cirrhotic patients with PUB as well as to explore the role of cirrhosis in determining the long-term risk of peptic ulcer rebleeding, we conducted this nationwide cohort study by analyzing a comprehensive national database over a 10-year period. PATIENTS AND METHODS Study design and population: This is a population-based retrospective cohort study using data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), a comprehensive healthcare database covering 99.9% of the entire 23.74 million population of Taiwan. Details of the NHIRD were described in our previous research (14-17). This study has been approved by the National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan. By using the international classification of disease-9 (ICD-9) codes to define the presence of diseases, we first identified all hospitalized patients who were admitted with a primary diagnosis of PUB (ICD-9 codes: 531.0, 531.2, 531.4, 531.6, 532.0, 532.2, 532.4, 532.6, 533.0, 533.2, 533.4, and 533.6) for the first time between January 1, 1997 and Hsu et al., 6 December 31, 2006. Those who were admitted again or transferred to another hospital within 3 days of discharge from the index hospitalization were considered in the same course of bleeding episode. Patients aged less than 20 years and those who had received gastric resection or vagotomy prior to discharge of the index admission were excluded. Cirrhotic cohort and matched cohort: The diagnosis of cirrhosis was based on the specific admission code (ICD-9: 571) and the cirrhotic cohort comprised PUB patients who had been diagnosed with liver cirrhosis before the index hospitalization. With regard to the control cohort, we matched each cirrhotic patient with four non-cirrhotic controls selected from the PUB population according to age ( 2 years), gender, and the frequency of taking gastroprotective medication which was defined as proton pump inhibitor (PPI) and histamine type 2 receptor antagonist (H2RA). Definition of recurrent peptic ulcer bleeding Recurrent PUB was defined as re-hospitalization with a primary diagnosis of PUB after the index bleeding episode during the study period. Cumulative incidences of recurrent PUB over 1-, 5-, and 10-year periods were determined for the cirrhotic patients and their matched controls. We also calculated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with cirrhosis for PUB recurrence. Definition of and adjustment for probable confounding factors Hsu et al., 7 We defined presence of co-morbidities according to the diagnoses coded on admissions prior to the index hospitalization. We considered acute coronary syndrome, cerebral infarction, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dyslipidemia, and end stage renal disease (ESRD) as potentially important confounding factors. We adjusted the factor of ulcerogenic drugs which included non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID), cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) specific inhibitors, aspirin, clopidogrel, ticlopidine, warfarin, dipyridamole, cilostazol and cerenin. We also considered non-selective beta blocker and nitrates, which were frequently prescribed to cirrhotic patients for reduction of portal hypertension (18), as probable confounders. Prescription information of medication such as the dosage, frequency, duration, and administration route was retrieved from the NHIRD. Enrolled patients who received eradication therapy for Helicobacter pylori before or after the index hospitalization were defined as having H. pylori-associated peptic ulcers. The definition of H.pylori eradication therapy was the combination regimen containing a PPI or H2RA plus two or more compatible antibiotics (amoxicillin, clarithromycin, metronidazole, tetracycline, etc.), with or without bismuth, in the same prescription order with treatment duration lasting from 7 to 14 days. All combination regimens eligible for H.pylori eradication have been detailed in our previous research (14, 15). Statistical analysis: Hsu et al., 8 Cumulative incidences of recurrent PUB were estimated by using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test between the two cohorts. The influence of cirrhosis on PUB recurrence was examined in different strata according to age, gender, comorbidity, therapeutic agents, and H,pylori status. For stratified analysis, patients were defined as users of a certain medication if they received this drug with duration longer than 10% of the observation period. We further applied the Cox proportional hazard model to verify whether cirrhosis was an independent risk factor for recurrent PUB. With all probable confounders included initially, we performed the analysis using step-down method and assessed goodness-of-fit of the models. We used SAS 9.1 software (SAS Institute., Cary, NC, USA) for data management, and SPSS program for Windows 11.0 (SPSS Inc. Chicago, Illinois, USA) to calculate cumulative incidence and HR. For each calculated HR, 95 % confidence interval (CI) was estimated. All statistical tests were two-sided with significance set at p value <0.05. RESULTS Baseline characteristics of PUB patients with cirrhosis and matched cohort We identified 9,711 patients with liver cirrhosis among a total of 271,030 patients who were hospitalized for the first time with a primary diagnosis of PUB between 1997 and 2006. This cirrhotic cohort was matched to 38,844 non-cirrhotic PUB patients in terms of age, Hsu et al., 9 gender, and use of gastroprotective agents. Demographic data, H.pylori status, prescription frequency of drugs that might protect or induce peptic ulcers and medication that might influence portal pressure, major comorbidities, and follow-up duration of the two study cohorts were summarized in the Table 1. Cumulative incidences of recurrent PUB between the cirrhotic cohort and controls The cumulative incidence of recurrent bleeding in the cirrhotic cohort was 42.2% (95% CI, 39.9-44.6%) during the 10-year study period (Figure 1), significantly higher than 31.0% (95% CI, 30.2-31.8%) in the matched controls (p<0.001, by the log rank test). The number needed to have one case of recurrent PUB (number needed to harm, NNH) for being cirrhotic was 9 in 10 years. Cirrhotic patients were also more likely to re-bleed within 1 and 5 years after an index admission for PUB, with significantly higher 1-year (17.0% vs. 16.7% p<0.001) and 5-year (36.2% vs. 24.9%, p<0.001) cumulative incidences of rebleeding respectively (Table 2). The corresponding NNH were 20 and 9 in 1 and 5 years respectively. Cirrhosis as an independent risk factor for recurrent PUB In the multivariate stratified analysis, cirrhosis was associated with increased risk of recurrent PUB in all subgroups according to age, gender, medication, H.pylori status, and comorbidities (Figure 2). The effect of cirrhosis on increased risk of rebleeding appeared to be modified by age, gastroprotective agents, and ESRD in that the effect was greater if the patients were younger, not protected by PPI or H2RA, and not comorbid with ESRD. The Hsu et al., 10 interesting interaction between cirrhosis and age was further illustrated by the cumulative incidences of recurrent PUB in different age groups (Figure 3A). In contrast to the non-cirrhotic controls whose risk of recurrent bleeding significantly increased with age (from 23.6% in the age group of 20-39 years to 37.2% if aged >60 years), the cirrhotic cohort had similarly high risks of rebleeding across ages (Figure 3B). Even in the age stratum of 20-39 years, the cumulative incidence of recurrent bleeding was as high as 40.9% (95% CI, 37.4%-44.7%). Cirrhosis remained an independent risk factor for PUB recurrence with a hazard ratio of 1.43 (95% CI, 1.36-1.50; p<0.0001) after adjustment for age, gender, use of gastroprotective or ulcerogenic drug, propranolol, nitrate, H.pylori status, and comorbidities. DISCUSSION This is the first population-based research to evaluate the long-term risk of recurrent peptic ulcer bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. We revealed in this nationwide cohort study that PUB commonly recurred in cirrhotic patients. The cumulative incidences of recurrent bleeding were 17.0%, 36.2%, and 42.2% in 1, 5, and 10 years respectively among the 9,711 cirrhotics, significantly higher than the corresponding 11.9%, 24.9%, and 31.0% in the 38,844 non-cirrhotic matched controls. The role of cirrhosis as an independent risk factor for peptic ulcer rebleeding was further confirmed by the multiple stratified analyses and the Hsu et al., 11 multivariate Cox regression modeling, both of which took age, gender, medication, H.pylori status, and comorbidity into account. These findings point out an important issue that has escaped attention for years in the management patients with liver cirrhosis. In view of the detrimental consequences of UGI bleeding on these vulnerable patients, effective measures for long-term risk reduction should be urgently sought. Intriguingly, the stratified analysis revealed that the excessive risk attributable to cirrhosis decreased with age (Figure 2). This finding resulted from the high cumulative rebleeding incidences regardless of ages among cirrhotic patients, in contrast to the controls whose rebleeding risk rose dramatically with age (Figure 3). It implicated that cirrhosis was more determinant than age in compromising the mucosal defense. Accordingly, not even in those cirrhotic patients younger than 40 years should the risk of recurrent bleeding be overlooked. We also found that the hazard ratios associated with liver cirrhosis differed according to the use of gastroprotective agents. Although cirrhosis consistently enhanced the risk of rebleeding in both subgroups, the magnitude was greater in patients with than in those without using these drugs. Since PPIs and H2RAs are reimbursed by the Taiwan national health insurance only in patients with proven endoscopic lesions such as ulcers or erosive esophagitis, their use might actually represent a preexisting UGI pathology. Therefore, our analysis explicitly matched the cirrhotic cohort with controls in gastroprotective medication to avoid its potentially confounding effect. Moreover, because Hsu et al., 12 ESRD also independently adds to the long-term risk of recurrent PUB (17), the impact of cirrhosis on magnifying this risk was reasonably less pronounced in patients with ESRD. Our results were consistent with previous studies showing that as compared with the general population, cirrhotic patients had more complicated outcomes of peptic ulcers. Earlier studies have revealed peptic ulcers not only healed more slowly but also recurred more frequently in patients with liver cirrhosis as compared with controls (19, 20). Moreover, there was evidence to suggest that cirrhosis was a predictive factor for PUB recurrence in the short term (12). The exact mechanism underlying the association between liver cirrhosis and risk of peptic ulcer rebleeding remains elusive, but may be related to impaired mucosal defense (6), bleeding tendency (7, 8), endovascular dysfunction (9, 21), and hyperdynamic circulation (22). The presence and severity of portal hypertension, the hallmark of the pathophysiology of cirrhosis, has been shown to induce gastric mucosal ulceration and hemorrhage in experimental models and to correlate with occurrence and recurrence of peptic ulcer diseases in clinical observations (23-28). Therefore, it stands to reason that the pathophysiological derangements of cirrhosis directly contribute to the pathogenesis of the higher recurrent bleeding rate. There was emerging evidence indicating that PUB patients whose pathogenesis was unrelated to H.pylori or NSAIDs were more likely to re-bleed or die (29, 30). The major characteristic that distinguished these patients with so-called “idiopathic” ulcers from those Hsu et al., 13 with NSAID- or H.pylori-related ulcers was the severity of underlying illness (29). Since H.pylori status and ulcerogenic drugs, along with other covariates, were adjusted, results of this study add to elucidating how patient’s underlying comorbidity affects the outcomes of PUB. The lower proportion of H.pylori-associated ulcers and less frequent use of ulcerogenic drugs (Table 1) also suggested that the majority of ulcer recurrences in the cirrhotic cohort were unrelated to these two well-recognized ulcer inducers. How to reduce the recurrence rate of peptic ulcers remains unknown and has scantly been investigated for patients with liver cirrhosis. Although H.pylori eradication is unequivocally effective in preventing peptic ulcer recurrence in the general population (31), such effectiveness was not demonstrated in patients with cirrhosis (28, 32). After prospectively following up 104 cirrhotic patients with duodenal ulcer for one year, Luo and colleagues reported that duodenal ulcer recurred in 21 of the 36 (58%) patients who achieved successful H.pylori infection, 8 of the 18 (44%) patients who remained H.pylori-positive despite eradication therapy, and 24 of the 50 (48%) patients who were H.pylori-negative at the enrollment (p=0.53) (28). Similarly, it remains unexplored whether anti-secretory medication effectively lowers recurrence rate of ulcer bleeding in cirrhotic patients. The efficacy of acid suppression for patient with cirrhosis appears questionable because cirrhotic patients are characterized by marked gastric hypoacidity (33), and therefore gastric acid may not play a crucial role in the ulcerogenesis of this unique Hsu et al., 14 population. On the other hand, cirrhosis-related pathophysiological alterations may be considered as potential therapeutic targets. Agents that can decrease portal hypertension, increase gastric mucus lining, correct endothelial dysfunction, or restore mucosal integrity merit examination in the setting of clinical trials. Major strengths of this study are attributed to the comprehensiveness of NHIRD that allows our analysis to cover a nationwide population for a period of 10 years. We ascertain definition of diseases and outcomes by investigating only hospitalized patients, because admission diagnoses are strictly scrutinized by the insurance system for the purpose of reimbursement. Although it is possible in theory that PUB may be managed on an outpatient basis, such an event is most likely insignificant clinically. Furthermore, the consistency of subgroup analyses stratified by various covariates supports that cirrhosis per se raises the risk of peptic ulcer rebleeding. We believe there are no unmeasured confounders that could have distorted the analysis because such factors would have to be either strongly linked to both the presence of cirrhosis and a heightened risk of PUB or would have to be very common, given the size of our cohort. Our study may have the following limitations. The source of UGI bleeding sometimes is difficult to determine in cirrhotic patients, and therefore PUB might have been insufficiently coded as unspecified UGI hemorrhage or erroneously as AVH. However, such misclassification probably would have underestimated the exact incidence of recurrent PUB Hsu et al., 15 in the cirrhotic patients and biased the results toward no difference. Second, we can only estimate exposure to medications by data of filled prescriptions, but cannot ascertain the amount each individual exactly takes. However, any difference in drug compliance is probably random and unrelated to cirrhosis or not. Furthermore, medication at the patient’s own expense cannot be analyzed, but substantial exposure to unrecorded drug is very unlikely in either cohort thanks to the widespread coverage of our national health insurance. Finally, endoscopic stigmata of bleeding ulcers are not available in the NHIRD and cannot be included into our analysis. Nevertheless, despite their values in predicting short-term recurrent bleeding, ulcer stigmata probably are not related to long-term risk prediction. In conclusion, we demonstrate in this nationwide cohort study that PUB recurs in more than 40% of cirrhotic patients within 10 years regardless of their ages. The association between cirrhosis and risk of recurrent PUB is independent to H.pylori infection, ulcerogenic agents, and other relevant factors. It implicates that cirrhosis along with its pathophysiological consequences may have important roles in the pathogenesis of ulcer bleeding. Our findings underline the unmet needs for a therapeutic option with proven efficacy in lowering long-term risk of peptic ulcer rebleeding among patients with liver cirrhosis. Hsu et al., 16 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This work was supported in part by the National Health Research Institutes of Taiwan (Grant numbers: PH-099-PP-26 and PH-099-PP-16) and Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taiwan (Grant numbers: TCVGH-1003304C). REFERENCES 1. D'Amico G, De Franchis R. Upper digestive bleeding in cirrhosis. Post-therapeutic outcome and prognostic indicators. Hepatology 2003;38:599-612. 2. Lecleire S, Di Fiore F, Merle V, Herve S, Duhamel C, Rudelli A, Nousbaum JB, et al. 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Stratified analyses for the association between liver cirrhosis and peptic ulcer rebleeding. Cirrhosis was associated with higher risk of peptic ulcer rebleeding in all stratified analyses according to age, gender, medication, H.pylori status, and comorbidities. Note that the effect of cirrhosis on rebleeding risk was more prominent in those who were younger, not protected by gastroprotective drugs, or not comorbid with chronic renal failure; PPI, proton pump inhibitor; H2RA, histamine type 2 receptor antagonist; ACS, acute coronary syndrome; ESRD, end stage renal disease; CI, confidence interval. Figure 3. Cumulative incidence of recurrent peptic ulcer bleeding stratified by age. Hsu et al., 22 Rebleeding incidence was similarly high in the cirrhotic patients regardless of their ages, whereas the incidence rose incrementally with age among controls (Panel A). The difference of rebleeding rates between the cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic cohorts was greater in the younger than in the older subgroup (Panel B); CI, confidence interval.