Subjective Well-Being, Income, Economic Development and Growth Dan Sacks, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and NBER Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics--Stockholm, June 1 2010. Implications of the Easterlin Paradox “Why do national comparisons among countries and over time show an association between income and happiness which is so much weaker than, if not inconsistent with, that shown by within-country comparisons?” –Easterlin (1974) Reference-dependent preferences Relative income matters [Other people’s consumption matters] Habit formation = hedonic treadmill [Other period’s consumption] Policy implications: Growth: “My results, along with mounting evidence from other time series studies of subjective well-being, do on balance undermine the view that a focus on economic growth is in the best interests of society.” –Easterlin (2005) Public finance: If preferences are interdependent ⇒ Pigouvian rationale for taxing labor supply / conspicuous consumption Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 2 Subjective Well-being “Subjective well-being refers to all of the various types of evaluations, both positive and negative, that people make of their lives. It includes reflective cognitive evaluations, such as life satisfaction and work satisfaction, interest and engagement, and affective reactions to life events, such as joy and sadness.” (Diener, 2005) Typical questions: Happiness “Taking all things together, would you say you are: very happy; quite happy; not very happy; not at all happy.” Life satisfaction “All things considered, how satisfied are you with your life as a whole these days?” [1=Dissatisfied – 10=Satisfied] Satisfaction ladder: “Here is a ladder representing the ‘ladder of life’. Let's suppose the top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you, and the bottom, the worse possible life for you. On which step of the ladder do you feel you personally stand at the present time? [0-10 steps].” Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 3 Research Question: What is the Relationship Between Subjective Well-being and Income? Types of comparisons 1970s view “Easterlin Paradox” Within country: Rich v. poor people in a country Big effects Between country: Rich v. poor countries National time series: Country when rich v. poor International panel: Countries with fast v. slow growth Implications Policy conclusions Statistically insignificant effects interpreted to be zero No effects (Japan, USA, Europe) Largely unexamined 1990s view “Satiation” New view: Stevenson-Wolfers findings results, along with mounting Big“My effects for income Strong effects: <$15k from other time series βwithin≈0.35 evidence - But not for the rich studies of subjective well-being, do on GDP<$15k: Strong effects balance undermine the view that a Strong effects βbetween=0.35 focus onNoeconomic growth is in the GDP>$15k: effects best interests of society.” Strong effects No effects – Richard Easterlin (2005) (Available data are for rich countries) Largely unexamined Relative income determines wellbeing Relative income determines wellbeing… once “basic needs” are met” De-emphasize growth Rich countries should de-emphasize growth and tax labor supply Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness βtime series=0.35 Strong effects βpanel=0.35 There’s no paradox (and never was) 4 Research Question: What is the Relationship Between Subjective Well-being and Income? Types of comparisons 1970s view “Easterlin Paradox” 1990s view “Satiation” Within country: Rich v. poor people in a country Big effects Big effects for income <$15k - But not for the rich Between country: Rich v. poor countries National time series: Country when rich v. poor International panel: Countries with fast v. slow growth Implications Policy conclusions Statistically insignificant effects interpreted to be zero GDP<$15k: Strong effects GDP>$15k: No effects No effects (Japan, USA, Europe) No effects (Available data are for rich countries) Relative income determines wellbeing Relative income determines wellbeing… once “basic needs” are met” De-emphasize growth Rich countries should de-emphasize growth and tax labor supply Largely unexamined Largely unexamined New view: Stevenson-Wolfers findings effects: “once Strong a country has over within ≈0.35 β $15,000 per head, its level of happiness Strong effects appears to be =0.35 βbetween independent of its income” Strong effects series=0.35 – Richard (2003) βtimeLayard Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness Strong effects βpanel=0.35 There’s no paradox (and never was) 5 Research Question: What is the Relationship Between Subjective Well-being and Income? Types of comparisons 1970s view “Easterlin Paradox” 1990s view “Satiation” New view: Stevenson-Wolfers Within country: Rich v. poor people in a country Big effects Big effects for income <$15k - But not for the rich Strong effects: βwithin≈0.35 No effects (Japan, USA, Europe) No effects (Available data are for rich countries) Strong effects βtime series≈0.35 Relative income determines wellbeing Relative income determines wellbeing… once “basic needs” are met” There’s no paradox (and never was) De-emphasize growth Rich countries should de-emphasize growth and tax labor supply Between country: Rich v. poor countries National time series: Country when rich v. poor International panel: Countries with fast v. slow growth Implications Policy conclusions Statistically insignificant effects interpreted to be zero Largely unexamined GDP<$15k: Strong effects GDP>$15k: No effects Largely unexamined Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness Strong effects βbetween≈0.35 Strong effects βpanel≈0.35 6 Why revisit the stylized facts? 1. 2. Theoretical implications: Reference-dependent preferences Yielding important policy implications (and big policy claims) What explains our new findings? 1. 2. 3. New data: Longer time series (1946-2010); More countries (n=140) Statistical inference: Absence of evidence v. evidence of absence What are “big” versus small effects? ⇒ Focus on the magnitudes What we won’t do Assess causality: Happiness = β log(Income) Revisit what subjective well-being data “mean” Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 7 Outline: Assessing the Happiness-Income link Within-country cross-sectional comparisons Between countries: In past and current data Multiple datasets For both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation National Time Series and International Panels USA All countries Japan Europe World Values Survey USA Newly-available measures of subjective well-being Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 8 Within-Country Comparisons: USA “Taken all together, how would you say things are these days?” Family income Very happy Pretty happy Not too happy <$12,500 (bottom 10%) 21% 53% 26% ≥$150,000 (top 10%) 53% 45% 2% $12,500-$49,999 $50,000-$149,999 25% 40% Source: U.S. General Social Survey, 2006 61% 54% 13% 6% “When we plot average happiness versus income for clusters of people in a given country at a given time, we see that rich people are in fact much happier than poor people. It’s actually an astonishingly large difference. There’s no one single change you can imagine that would make your life improve on the happiness scale as much as to move from the bottom 5 percent on the income scale to the top 5 percent.” - Robert Frank (2005) Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 9 Satisfaction and Log(Family Income) Well-Being Lowess and fits forLog(Income) the 25 Largest Countries; Gallup World Poll 8 USA βwithin 7 MEX ≈ 0.35 ITAFRA DEU COL BRA IND THA VNMTUR IRN RUS PAK UKR CHN EGY PHL BGDNGA 6 5 JPN KOR .5 0 ETH -.5 4 3 -1 Figure shows the central 90% of the income distribution for each country. .5 64 32 8 16 4 1 2 Annual household income ($000s; Log income scale) Normalized satisfaction ladder score Satisfaction ladder score (0-10) 1 GBR 128 Source: Daniel Sacks, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers (2010), “Subjective Well-Being, Income, 10 Sa cks Within-country : Rich are happier than poor Permanent Income Adjusted 0.422 IV Sample size 0.449 *** (0.027) 171,900 (126 Countries) 116,527 (61 Countries) 32,463 (43 Countries) Without controls With controls Gallup World Poll: Ladder question 0.236*** (0.014) 0.232*** (0.014) World Values Survey: Life satisfaction 0.216*** (0.017) 0.227*** (0.037) 0.413 0.26*** (0.035) Pew Global Attitudes Survey: Ladder question 0.281*** (0.027) 0.283*** (0.027) 0.515 0.393*** (0.033) Notes: The table reports the coefficient on the log of household income, obtained from regressing standardized life satisfaction against the log of household income and country fixed effects using the indicated data set. Additional controls include a quartic in age, interacted with sex, plus indicators for age and sex missing. Our permanent income adjustment is to scale up our estimates by 1/0.55; see text for explanation. We instrument for income using full set of country×education fixed effects. We report robust standard errors, clustered at the country level, in parentheses. For further details on the standardization of satisfaction and the exact wording of satisfaction question, see the text. ***, ** and * denote statistically significant at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively. Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 11 Outline: Assessing the Happiness-Income link Within-country comparisons USA All countries Between countries: βwithin ≈ 0.35 In past and current data Multiple datasets Both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation “the happiness differences between rich and poor countries that one might expect on the basis of the within country differences by economic status are not borne out by the international data.” – Easterlin, (1974) National Time Series and International Panels Japan Europe World Values Survey USA Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 12 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness World Values Survey 1.0 DNK ISL SWE MLTIRL AUS NOR CAN NLD USA GBR BEL DEU HUN FRA ITA ESPJPN 8 7 0.5 8 7 6 KOR 5 -0.5 ARG 4 y = -4.07+0.46*ln(x) [se=0.22] Correlation=0.57 3 .5 1 9 8 2 4 8 16 6 5 4 -1.5 3 COL PRI CHE FIN SWE NZL USA 0.5 NOR GBR AUS 2 4 8 16 32 NGA y = -4.69+0.51*ln(x) [se=0.08] Correlation=0.74 1 7 6 5 4 -1.5 3 16 8 -1.5 32 1.0 PRI DNK MEX MLT IRL ISL LUX AUT NLD FIN CAN USA 0.5 SWE BEL VEN DEU GBR ARG SAU SVN ITA CHL CZE SGP ESP ISR PRT IDN FRA NGA GRC PHL VNM CHN KGZ JPN HRV PER 0.0 IRN POL KOR MAR SVK EST BGD DZA SCGBIHJOR TURZAFHUN UGA BGR LVA IRQ -0.5 ALBROM IND MKD LTU PAK EGY BLR RUS MDA UKR 8 -1.0 4 2 1999-2004 wave 9 0.0 -0.5 CHN IND -1.0 .5 1.0 y = -4.00+0.43*ln(x) [se=0.05] Correlation=0.72 1 4 1994-99 wave 3 .5 -1.0 32 SLV MEX BRA URY DEU CHNPHL VEN ESPJPN NGA TWN IND SVN PERTUR POL CZE HRV SVK HUN MKD SCG ZAF BIH AZE EST LTU LVA ROM BGD CHL ARG GEO ALB DOM BGR RUS BLR ARM UKR MDA 7 5 1.0 CHE MLT DNK ISL CAN IRL SWE AUT USA0.5 NLD NOR FIN BEL GBR BRA ITA ESP PRT DEU KOR SVKCZE FRA POL JPN 0.0 TUR SVN HUN LTU ROM EST LVA BLR RUS -0.5 BGR ZAF CHLMEX ARG 0.0 6 Satisfaction ladder score (0-10) 1989-93 wave 9 -1.0 ZWE TZA y = -2.88+0.32*ln(x) [se=0.04] Correlation=0.72 .5 1 2 4 Standardized satisfaction ladder score 1981-84 wave 9 βbetween ≈ 0.35 8 Real GDP per&Capita (thousands of dollars, scale) Sacks, Stevenson Wolfers, Income andlog Happiness 16 -1.5 32 14 Pew Global Attitudes Survey, 2002 9 1.5 8 1.0 Satisfaction ladder score (0-10) GTM 7 HND VNM EGY KOR VEN BRA 6 UZB NGA IDN BOL CIV SEN PAK 5 KEN MLI IND CANUSA MEX PER PHL JOR CHN LBN ARG CZE ITA FRA GBR DEU 0.5 JPN SVK POL ZAF 0.0 UKR TURRUS BGDGHA -0.5 4 UGA AGO TZA BGR y = -1.73+0.20*ln(x) [se=0.04] Correlation=0.55 3 .5 Standardized satisfaction ladder score βbetween ≈ 0.35 1 2 4 8 Real GDP per capita (thousands of dollars, log scale) 16 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness -1.0 32 15 Gallup World Poll Satisfaction ladder score (0-10) 8 7 6 5 4 1.5 βbetween ≈ 0.35 DNK FIN CHE NLD NOR NZL CAN SWE IRL USA AUS CRI BEL ESPAUT SAU ISR GBR VEN FRA ARE ITA SGP MEX PRI PAN BRA CZE DEU GRC CYP JAM ARG TWN MYS GTM COL KWT JPN JOR LTU THA CHL TTO SVN HRV URY POL BLR KAZ KOR HKG BOL SLV CUB PRT VNM EST MMRUZB RUS SVK IRN PAK HND LAO ROM MNE DOM TUR INDEGY ZAF UNK BWA HUN DZA UKR MAR PER ECU PRY IDN MDA LBN GHA BIH NGA LVA PHL SRB CHN MOZ NIC KGZ MRT NPL AZE BGD SEN ALB IRQ ARMMKD ZMB TJK YEM AGO LKA MWIMDG MLI UGA RWA CMR KEN NER BEN ETH AFGTZA BFA BDI KHMGEO BGR TCD HTI 0.5 0.0 -0.5 ZWE SLE TGO y=-2.955+0.342*ln(x) [se=0.019] -1.0 Correlation=0.82 3 0.5 1.0 Standardized satisfaction ladder score 9 1 2 4 8 16 GDP per capita, (thousands of dollars, scale) Sacks,Real Stevenson & Wolfers, Income andlog Happiness 32 16 Between Countries: Rich Countries Are Happier Estimates of βbetween βbetween ≈ 0.35 Microdata National Data Gallup World Poll: Ladder question World Values Survey: Life satisfaction Without controls 0.357*** (0.019) 0.360*** (0.034) With controls 0.378*** (0.019) 0.364*** (0.034) 0.342*** (0.019) 0.370*** (0.036) Sample size 291,383 (131 countries) 234,093 (79 countries) Pew Global Attitudes Survey: Ladder question 0.214*** (0.039) 0.231*** (0.038) 0.204*** (0.037) 37,974 (44 countries) Notes: This table reports the coefficient on the log of per capita GDP, obtained from regressing standardized life satisfaction against the log of GDP, using individual data with and without controls, and using national-level data without controls, in the indicated data set. In the national-level regressions, we take the within-country average of standardized life satisfaction as the dependent variable. GDP per capita is at purchasing power parity. The additional controls include a quartic in age, interacted with sex, plus indicators for age and sex missing. We report robust standard errors, clustered at the country level, in parentheses. For further details on the standardization of satisfaction, the exact wording of satisfaction question, and the sources for GDP per capita, see the text. ***, ** and * denote statistically significant at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively. Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 17 Comparing Within and Between Country Estimates 9 Country-year aggregates 1.5 Within-country wellbeing gradient 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 8 DNK FIN CHE NLD NZLCAN NOR SWE IRL USA AUS CRI BEL ESPAUT SAU ISR GBR VEN FRA ARE ITA SGP MEX PRI PAN BRA CZE DEU GRC CYP JAM ARG TWN MYS GTM COL KWT JPN JOR THA CHLLTU TTO SVN HRV URY POL BLR KAZ KOR HKG BOL SLV CUB PRT VNM EST MMR UZB RUS SVK IRN PAK HND ROM LAO MNE DOM TUR INDEGY DZA UNK BWA HUN UKR ZAF MAR PER ECU PRY IDN MDA LBN GHA BIH NGA LVA PHL SRB CHN MOZ NIC KGZ MRT NPL SEN BGD AZE ALB ARM ZMB TJK YEM AGO LKA MKD MWIMDG MLI UGA RWA CMR KEN NER ETH AFG TZA BEN BFA BDI KHMGEO BGR TCD HTI βbetween -1.0 ≈ βwithin ≈ 0.35 ZWE SLE 1 2 6 5 4 3 TGO .5 7 Satisfaction ladder score (0-10) Standardized satisfaction ladder score Between-country wellbeing gradient 4 8 16 Real GDP per capita (thousands of dollars, log scale) Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 32 18 Are There Satiation Effects? There exists no income level above which further income does not raise happiness 1.5 Standardized Happiness Index There exists no dataset in which the well-being-income gradient changes at incomes above $15,000 Happiness and Family Income in the U.S. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Bottom half: Slope=0.24 (0.10) Inc<15k: Slope=0.31 (0.49) 4 8 16 Top half: Slope=0.30 (0.07) Inc>$15k: Slope=0.26 (0.05) 32 64 128 Family Income ($000s) Source: Gallup Poll, December 2007 256 512 Source: Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers (2010), “Subjective Well-being and Income: Is Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 19 There Any Evidence of Satiation?” Outline: Assessing the Happiness-Income link Within-country comparisons USA All countries Between countries: βwithin ≈ 0.35 Through time Multiple datasets Both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation βbetween ≈ 0.35 National Time Series and International Panels Japan Europe World Values Survey USA “income growth in a society does not increase happiness”. - Easterlin (1995) Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 20 Happiness & Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence Japan Old view: Life satisfaction flat, despite robust post-war growth New view: Robust growth in life satisfaction …apparent only when taking account of breaks in the data US Old view: No increase in happiness since 1972 despite GDP growth New view: True. …but few sample participants experienced income growth Europe Old view: No clear evidence of growing life satisfaction (1973-89) New view: Extending data through 2007 yields clearly rising satisfaction Around the World Old view: No clear evidence of growing life satisfaction New view: Clear positive relationship between income and growth … when comparing comparable samples and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being Source: Betsey StevensonStevenson and Justin Wolfers (2010), “Time Series Evidence on the Well-Being Link” 21 Time Series: No rise in happiness, despite growth Japan U.S.A Europe Life in Nation Surveys General Social Survey Eurobarometer Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 22 of Subjective Well-Being and GDP in Japan Japan: Evolution Well-Being versus GDP Pattern of responses from four different questions Well-being: Ordered Probit Index 0.3 0.2 0.1 Overall, to what degree are you satisfied with your life now: 1995(5) -Satisfied -Somewhat satisfied 1993(5) 1996(7) 1985(5) -Somewhat 1992(5) dissatisfied 1979(5) -Dissatisfied 1986(5) 1990(5) 1997(5) 1991(5) 1977(5) 2006(10) 1994(5) 1970(1) 1982(5) 1968(1) 1984(5)1988(5) 1983(5) 1987(5) 1973(1) 1978(5) 1969(1) 1999(12) 1981(5) 1980(5) 1989(5) 2007(7) 1964(1) 1976(5) 1967(2) 2001(9) 1975(5) 1965(1) 2002(6) 1976(11) 1972(1) 2005(6) 2004(6) 1966(1) 1971(1) 1975(11) 2003(6) How do you feel about your circumstances at home: 1963(1) -Satisfied -Not1959(1) satisfied, not dissatisfied -Somewhat dissatisfied -Extremely dissatisfied 1962(1) 1961(1) 1960(1) 1958(2) 0.0 -0.1 How do you feel about your life at home: -Completely satisfied -Satisfied -Somewhat dissatisfied -Completely dissatisfied How do you feel about your life now: -Completely satisfied -Satisfied -Somewhat dissatisfied -Completely dissatisfied -0.2 1974(1) -0.3 Slope=0.19 [se=0.13] 2000 Slope=0.16 [se=0.08] Slope=0.18 1974(11) [se=0.07] 16000 4000 8000 Real Japanese GDP per Capita, PPP (log scale); 2000 US$ Source: Life-in-nation surveys, 1958-2007. time series Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being β ≈ 0.35 Slope=-1.14 [se=0.51] 32000 23 .9% Economic Conditions 4.1% 6.0 $16k 5.0 $8k $4k 4.0 12.8% 3.0 10.5% $2k 2.0 $1k 1.0 Real GDP per capita $.5k Subjective Well-Being: Ordered Probit Index Unemployment Rate (%) Real Japanese GDP per capita PPP (Log scale) Japan: Raw data $32k Japan: 1958-2007 1960 1970 GDP trend 1980 Unemployment rate (right axis) 1990 2000 2010 Subjective Well-Being 1 0.0 1 .75 .75 .5 .5 .25 .25 0 0 Raw series, with breaks -.25 -.25 -.5 -.5 1960 1990Well-Being 2000 1970 1980 Subjective Stevenson and Wolfers, 2010 24 Income and Happiness Trends in the U.S. Happiness: Ordered Probit Index USA: happiness 0.2 Is it surprising that Average Happiness hasn’t grown? 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 Change since 1972 in log(average income) 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Measures of Log(Average Income) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Average household income [GSS] 0.0 -0.2 1970 Change since 1972 in average log(income) 1975 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010 GDP per capita Average household income [CPS] 2005 2010 Measures of Average Log(Income) 0.8 Happinesst = 0.048 * Average log household income in GSSt [95% ci: -0.25 - +0.34] Happinesst = 0.058 * Average log household income in CPSt [95% ci: -0.21 – 0.33] 0.6 0.4 0.2 Average log(household income) [GSS] 0.0 -0.2 1970 2000 1990 1980 1975 Sacks, Stevenson & 1985 Wolfers, Income and1995 Happiness Average log(household income) [CPS] 2005 2010 25 Change in Life Satisfaction and Economic Growth in Europe 0.50 Belgium Denmark Greece 0.25 0.00 -0.25 Life Satisfaction, 0-10 Scale -0.50 0.50 y = 2.53 + -0.25 * log(GDP) [se=0.14] Correlation = -0.31 y = -3.63 + 0.36 * log(GDP) [se=0.05] Correlation = 0.73 France y = -2.05 + 0.21 * log(GDP) [se=0.10] Correlation = 0.22 Ireland Italy 0.25 0.00 -0.25 y = -3.91 + 0.39 * log(GDP) [se=0.10] Correlation = 0.63 -0.50 0.50 y = -0.90 + 0.09 * log(GDP) [se=0.05] Correlation = 0.30 Netherlands y = -6.75 + 0.68 * log(GDP) [se=0.09] Correlation = 0.81 United Kingdom West Germany 0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 8 time series β y = -1.88 + 0.19 * log(GDP) [se=0.07] Correlation = 0.41 ≈ 0.35 16 32 y = -1.34 + 0.13 * log(GDP) [se=0.03] Correlation = 0.48 8 16 32 y = -1.08 + 0.11 * log(GDP) [se=0.08] Correlation = 0.19 8 Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being Real GDP per capita (thousands of dollars, log scale) 16 32 26 Change in Life Satisfaction & Economic Growth: World Values Survey Changes between waves I and II Changes between waves II and III Changes between waves III and IV Ch. Sat.=-0.14+0.71*Ch. GDP [se=0.15] Ch. Sat.=-0.15+0.60*Ch. GDP [se=0.11] Ch. Sat.=0.05+0.51*Ch. GDP [se=0.25] 0.75 KOR 0.50 ITA ESP BEL MLT FRA USA IRL NLD CAN ARG ISL SWEJPN DNK GBR NOR DEU Cumulative change in life satisfaction (z-scale) 0.25 0.00 BGR JPN SVN FIN GBR ARG DEUNOR USA POL HUN SWE TUR BRA CHE CZE -0.25 LVA RUS EST LTU BLR HUN -0.50 -50 0.75 0 50 100 -50 0 EST MDA VEN SVN BGR CZE MEX UKR DEU BLR ESP ALB PRI LVA ROM BIH RUS HRV ZAF LTUFIN PER USA SCG SVK POL SWE HUN PHL GBR JPN CHL ESP SVK TUR MKD ROM 50 100 -50 0 50 100 Changes between waves I and III Changes between waves II and IV Changes between waves I and IV Ch. Sat.=-0.22+0.42*Ch. GDP [se=0.27] Ch. Sat.=-0.09 +0.29*Ch. GDP [se=0.12] Ch. Sat.=-0.11 +0.23*Ch. GDP [se=0.08] 0.50 SVN KOR Offscale (215, 0.35) 0.25 DEU BGR CZE AUT FIN FRA NLD ISLDNK ESTJPN GBR CAN BEL PRT ESPMLT USA ITA POL SWE HUN LVA SVK RUS BLRROM TUR LTU JPN ESPGBR ARG USA SWEDEU NOR AUS 0.00 -0.25 ITA ESP FRA DEU BEL NLD DNK USA ISL CAN JPN GBR SWE IRL KOR MLT IRL HUN -0.50 -50 time series β HUN ≈ 0.35 0 50 100 -50 0 50 100 0 Stevenson & Wolfers, Economic Growth and Happiness Cumulative change in real GDP per capita (percent) 50 100 150 27 International Panel Data: World Values Survey Normalized satisfaction, relative to country and wave fixed effects 0.4 βpanel ≈ 0.35 0.2 0.0 -0.2 y = 0.51*ln(x) [se=0.12] Correlation=0.55 -0.4 -.5 -.25 0 .25 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, and Happiness Log GDP, relative to Income country and wave fixed effects .5 28 Satisfaction and Growth: International Panel Regressions Panel A: Panel Regressions 0.505*** (0.109) 166 observations 79 countries ln(GDP) N 0.638** (0.239) 31 observations 10 countries 0.407*** (0.116) 135 observations 66 countries 0.170** (0.074) 776 observations 31 countries 0.350** (0.163) 46 differences 0.278* (0.164) 30 differences Panel B: Long differences 0.470*** (0.128) 66 differences ln(GDP) N 0.694* (0.387) 10 differences βpanel ≈ 0.35 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 29 -.2 0 .2 βpanel ≈ 0.35 y = 0.17*ln(x) [se=0.05] Correlation=0.15 -.4 Normalized satisfaction, relative to country and wave fixed effects .4 International Panel Data: Eurobarometer -.4 -.2 0 .2 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness log GDP, relative to country and wave mean .430 Change in satisfaction, relative to country and wave fixed effects Long Differences: World Values Survey βpanel ≈ 0.35 0.4 SVN KOR KOR Offscale (1, 0.33) MDA VEN 0.2 ITA CZE BGR ESP MEX AUT FIN UKR IRL FRA MLT DEU BEL CHE NLD BIH HRV DNK EST 0.0 ISL BRA ZAF CAN AUS PER SCG ALB PRI PRT NOR USA POL JPN GBR LVA SWE -0.2 PHL SVK ROM RUS BLR TUR LTU MKD -0.4 HUN -0.6 y = 0.00+0.47*ln(x) [se=0.13] Correlation=0.54 -.5 -.25 0 and Happiness .25 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income Change in log GDP, relative to country and wave fixed effects .5 31 βpanel ≈ 0.35 GRC 07-97 ITA 97-87 GDR 97-87 NOR 97-87 .2 ESP 07-97 FRA 07-97 GRC 87-77 DNK 87-77 FRG 97-87 NLD 87-77 LUX 87-77 DNK 97-87 PRT 97-87 FRG 87-77 ITA 87-77 GBR 07-97 NLD 97-87 GBR 87-77 FIN 07-97 BEL 97-87 IRL 07-97 0 IRL 97-87 ITA 07-97 DNK 07-97 FRA 97-87 SWE 07-97 GBR 97-87 LUX 07-97 LUX 97-87 FRA 87-77 BEL 07-97 PRT07-97 07-97 AUT NLD 07-97 ESP 97-87 -.2 GDR 07-97 FRG 07-97 BEL 87-77 IRL 87-77 GRC 97-87 -.4 Change in satisfaction, relative to country and wave fixed effects .4 Long Differences: Eurobarometer -.2 y = 0.01+0.28*ln(x) [se=0.16] Correlation=0.19 .2 Sacks, Stevenson0& Wolfers, Income and Happiness Change in log GDP, relative to country and wave fixed effects .432 Conclusion: Stylized Facts about Well-being and Income Within-country comparisons Between countries: Japan USA 9 European nations International Panel data Since 1946 Multiple datasets Both happiness and life satisfaction No evidence of satiation National Time Series USA All countries World Values Survey Eurobarometer Other measures of well-being βwithin ≈ 0.35 βbetween ≈ 0.35 βtime series ≈ 0.35 βinternational panel≈ 0.35 Pain, depression, smiling, good tasting food to eat, respect Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 33 Is there any evidence of satiation? “if we compare countries, there is no evidence that richer countries are happier than poorer ones – so long as we confine ourselves to countries with incomes over $15,000 per head.” - Layard (2005) Rich countries (GDP>$15,000) Satisfaction=1.08*log(GDP) [se=0.21] Poor countries (GDP<$15,000) Satisfaction=0.35*log(GDP) [se=0.04] A 1% rise in GDP: Has three times larger effects in rich countries than poor countries A $100 rise in GDP 3x larger effect in Jamaica than US 20x larger effect in Burundi than US Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 34 Is there any evidence of satiation? “if we compare countries, there is no evidence that richer countries are happier than poorer ones – so long as we confine ourselves to countries with incomes over $15,000 per head.” - Layard (2005) Linear income scale Rich countries (GDP>$15,000) Satisfaction=0.35*log(GDP) [se=0.04] A 1% rise in GDP: [se=0.21] Poor countries (GDP<$15,000) Satisfaction=1.08*log(GDP) Has three times larger effects in rich countries than poor countries A $100 rise in GDP 3x larger effect in Jamaica than US 20x larger effect in Burundi than US BRA MEX 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 DNK 1.5 FIN CHE NOR NLD CAN SWE AUS NZL BEL ISR ESP AUT IRL USA FRA GBR ITA VEN CRI SAU 1.0 Life satisfaction (ordered probit index) Log income scale DNK 1.5 PRI DEU JPN SGP CZE ARG JOR CYP JAMPAN TWN KWT CHL COLMYS GRC GTM THA LTU TTO HRV SVN DZAURY KOR SLVBLR POL LBN HKG CUB KAZ HND BOL ESTPRT IND IRN MMR VNM SVK EGY UZB MNE HUN MRT PAK DOM UNK MDA ZAF LAO ECU ROM IDN BIH RUS ZMB PER UKR BWA SRB PRY AZE NGA PHL TUR LVA KGZ ALB MAR TJK MOZ SEN CHN NPL GHA NICMKD YEM LKA BGD ARM RWA BDI AGO AFG KEN MLI MDG BGR CMR MWI ZWE BFA GEO HTI ETH UGA IRQ NER TZA SLE KHM TCD BEN TGO 1.0 ARE 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 FIN CHE NLD CAN NOR SWE AUS NZLBEL VEN ISR ESP IRL AUT USA CRI FRA SAU GBR ITA ARE BRA MEX PRI DEU JPN CZE SGP ARG CYP JOR JAM PAN TWN CHL KWT COLMYS GRC LTU GTM THA HRV TTO SVN DZA URY KOR SLV BLR POL LBN KAZ HKG CUB HND PRT EST IND MMR BOL VNM IRN SVK EGY UZB MNE HUN MRT PAK DOM UNK MDA ECU ZAF LAO ROM RUS IDNBIH PER ZMB UKR BWA SRB PRY AZE NGA KGZ PHL TUR LVA ALBCHN TJK MOZ SENGHA MAR NPL NIC MKD YEM LKA BGD ARM BDI RWA AGO AFGMDG KEN MLI BGR CMR MWI BFA ZWE HTI IRQGEO UGA NER ETH TZA SLE KHM TCD BEN TGO -1.5 0 10 20 30 40 0.5 1 2 4 8 16 32 Real GDP per capita (thousands of dollars) Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 35 Happiness and GDP (World Values Survey) 4 1.0 NGA Happiness (1-4 Scale) MEX PRI ISL NLD DNK CAN IRL SAU BELUSA 0.5 LUX SWE AUT PHL SGP FRA CHL ARG MLT JPN IDN FIN ZAF ESP MAR UGA KGZ BIH DEU PRTISR CZE KOR PERDZA ITA PAK IND 0.0 POL JOR TUR GRC SVN BGD CHN MKD HRV IRN LTU HUN SCG EST SVK BLR ZWEIRQ LVA ALB -0.5 MDA RUS UKR BGR ROM VEN VNM 3 EGY y = -0.89+0.11*ln(x) [se=0.05] Correlation=0.29 Excluding NGA and TZA: y = -1.70+0.20*ln(x) [se=0.04] Correlation=0.49 2 .5 1 2 4 8 and Happiness 16 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income GDP (log scale) 32 Standardized happiness TZA -1.0 36 Happiness versus Life Satisfaction Happiness Life satisfaction Kettering-Gallup Survey, 1975 1.5 1.5 0.5 CAN USA GBR AUS FRA DEU JPN ITA BRA 0.0 MEX BRA 0.0 -0.5 IND y = -4.20+0.45*ln(x) [se=0.14] Correlation=0.72 -1.5 1 Ordered probit index CAN GBR DEU USA ITA JPN FRA MEX 0.5 -0.5 -1.0 AUS 1.0 1.0 2 4 8 16 32 -1.0 IND y = -4.77+0.52*ln(x) [se=0.14] Correlation=0.78 -1.5 1 64 2 4 8 16 32 64 First European Quality of Life Survey, 2003 1.5 1.5 1.0 DNK IRL FIN AUT MLT ESPSWE CYP GBR BEL GRC DEU NLD ITA SVN FRA CZE ROM HUN POL PRT EST TUR SVK LTU LVA BGR 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 LUX 1 2 4 8 16 32 0.5 0.0 -0.5 y = -5.09+0.52*ln(x) [se=0.07] Correlation=0.82 -1.5 DNK FIN SWE AUT IRL ESP BEL NLD GBR MLT CYP DEU ITA SVN GRC FRA CZE ROM POL HUNPRT EST SVK TUR LVA LTU 1.0 BGR -1.0 y = -7.75+0.79*ln(x) [se=0.10] Correlation=0.85 -1.5 1 64 LUX 2 4 8 16 32 64 Eurobarometer, 2006 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 DNK IRL NLD SWE BEL GBR FRA FIN ESPFRG POL PRT AUT CZE GRCITA GDR SVK EST LTU LVA HUN SLV 0.0 -0.5 ROM -1.0 BGR 1.0 LUX 1 2 4 8 SLV 0.0 -0.5 y = -5.59+0.56*ln(x) [se=0.12] Correlation=0.68 -1.5 0.5 16 32 64 -1.0 -1.5 1 2 4 DNK SWE NLD LUX FIN GBR BELIRL ESPFRG AUT CZE FRA TUR HRV EST GDR SVK POL GRCITA LVA LTU PRT HUN ROM BGR y = -5.92+0.60*ln(x) [se=0.15] Correlation=0.61 8 Sacks, Stevenson &perWolfers, Income and Real GDP capita (thousands of dollars, log scale)Happiness 16 32 64 37 More Income is Associated with Less Pain More Enjoyment Less Depression BUT More Stress How do people’s days differ with income? More likely to be treated with respect More likely to eat good tasting food More likely to smile or laugh And people are more likely to want to have more days like the one that they just had Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 38 Enjoyment Physical Pain Percent experiencing the indicated feeling yesterday Correlation: 0.49 Worry Correlation: -0.41 Sadness Correlation: 0.11 Correlation: -0.13 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 0 y=34.5+4.26*ln(x) [se=0.67] 0.5 2 8 0 y=47.9+-2.44*ln(x) [se=0.48] 32 0.5 Boredom 2 8 0 y=25.8+0.95*ln(x) [se=0.76] 32 0.5 Depression Correlation: -0.16 2 8 0 y=27.4+-0.69*ln(x) [se=0.47] 32 0.5 Anger Correlation: -0.34 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 0.5 2 8 32 0.5 2 8 32 0 y=28.4+-0.97*ln(x) [se=0.55] 0.5 2 8 32 Real GDP per (thousands of dollars, log scale) Sacks, Stevenson &capita Wolfers, Income and Happiness 32 Correlation: 0.23 80 0 y=29.9+-1.80*ln(x) [se=0.44] 8 Love Correlation: -0.15 80 0 y=35.1+-1.23*ln(x) [se=0.67] 2 0 y=47.5+2.44*ln(x) [se=0.93] 0.5 2 8 32 39 Would you like to have more days just like yesterday? Did you feel well rested yesterday? Percent reporting indicated feeling Yesterday Were you treated with respect all day yesterday? Were you able to choose how you spent your time all day? 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 Correlation = 0.14 Correlation = 0.15 0 y=59.2+0.99*ln(x) [se=0.61] 0.5 2 8 Correlation = 0.43 0 y=56.9+1.01*ln(x) [se=0.61] 32 0.5 Did you smile or laugh a lot yesterday? 2 8 32 Were you proud of something you did yesterday? Correlation = 0.19 0 y=54.2+3.49*ln(x) [se=0.65] 0.5 2 8 0 y=57.3+1.44*ln(x) [se=0.67] 32 0.5 Did you learn or do something interesting yesterday? 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 Correlation = 0.28 Correlation = 0.00 0.5 2 8 32 Correlation = 0.01 0 y=59.5+0.03*ln(x) [se=1.00] 0.5 2 8 32 2 32 Correlation = 0.59 0 y=51.5+0.14*ln(x) [se=0.94] 0.5 8 Did you have good tasting food to eat yesterday? 80 0 y=47.2+2.66*ln(x) [se=0.79] 2 8 32 Real GDP per (thousands of dollars, log scale) Sacks, Stevenson &capita Wolfers, Income and Happiness 0 y=26.6+5.61*ln(x) [se=0.68] 0.5 2 8 32 40 Enjoyment Proportion who experienced this feeling during a lot of the day yesterday 0.90 CAN NZL DNK KWT IRL NOR USA LAO SWE CRI CHE AUS NLD AUT PRYSLV CYP GBR CHN ECU GTM MEX ARG TWN BEL UZB VEN THA DJI IDN BRA TTO NPL COLPAN SAU MLI JAM URY CZE MYS CHL DEU FRA GUY HND ARE KEN MRT PHL LVA ZAF BLZ SVK HUN SEN NIC BOL NER POL EST SGP TZA NGA NAM FIN BGDKHM ISRJPN IND LKA GIN JOR PERROU BWA GRC HKG SDN SVN DOM MWI ZMB KAZ AFG ESP RWA TJK MKD SRB RUS ITA CAF EGYBIH KGZ MDA UKR MDG MMR KOR TUNBLR HRV PRT TCD PAK COG BFA UGA SYR GHA LTU BGR CMR IRN ALB LBN MNG ETH AZE HTIBEN YEM MAR AGO TUR MOZ DZA ARM TGO VNM 0.80 0.70 ZWE COD 0.60 0.50 LBR BDI GEO SLE Correlation = 0.49 0.40 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 41 Depression Proportion who experienced this feeling during a lot of the day yesterday 0.40 ETH 0.30 KHM YEM SLE BGD HTI IRN KOR BOL LBN PHL RWA EGYAZE PAK ARM HUN PER DZA IND NIC AFG CMRMDA SYR UGA PRT BLZ DOM ARE JOR ECU SRB BLR TUR JPN BIH COL TZA TJK HRV ZAF CHL TTO GEO BWA SDN GUY GTM TUN MKD MDG TGO COG UKR MOZ MAR RUS CZEISR MWI GIN TWN URY NGA LKA SLV KAZ JAM AGO MNG VNM ROU BGR HKGSGP CRI MEX SVK LTU GHA EST NAM SAU USA KWT ITA MYS HND VEN ARG LVA GRCGBR BEN ZMB NPL TCD CHN ESP CYP PRY NER AUS KGZ BEL BRA FIN UZB PAN CAN NOR KEN DJI SVN MMR MLI NZL THA CAF BFA FRA POL MRT IRL DEU NLD IDN AUT SWE CHE LAO SEN DNK ALB LBR 0.20 ZWE 0.10 0.00 BDI COD Correlation = 0.29 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 42 Stress Proportion who experienced this feeling during a lot of the day yesterday 0.80 PHL 0.60 SYR USA DZA ROU LBN TUR HKG IRN KOR NZL TUN DEU DOM ITA TJK AUS CAN PRTISR BLZ KHM SLERWA CHN COL PER GBR MDGHTI BOL ECU CRIMEXSVK TWN BEL SGP JPN JOR FRA CHE EGY UGA AUT NGA MYSHUN URY YEM IRL ARE TZA TTO BGD ARG BRA ZAF CHL SLVTHA VEN LVA IND NIC ESP GHA MWI KWTNOR FIN SAU SWE CZE POL BWA ETH GTM JAM CMR VNM KEN HND PAN AGO SEN PAK ESTSVN DNK NLD AFG ARM TGO MDA GEO TCD MOZ ZMB BEN BLR LTU COG AZE UKR KAZ NER PRY RUS NPL BFA LAO MNG IDN MLI KGZ MMR UZB DJI MRT 0.40 GUY LKA ZWE 0.20 0.00 GRC CYP BDI LBR Correlation = 0.33 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 43 Were you treated with respect all day yesterday? 1.00 ESP PRY NLD PRT ARG KWT SWE COL VEN IRL CHE CRI BEL FRA AUT DOM BRA NIC DNK URY SLVECU POL FIN PAN DEU ARE NOR CHLTTO SVN NZL UZB PHL CYP AUS PER CAN ITA HND NER BOL VNM EGY GBR USA TWN GRC ARM MEX EST LBN MOZ SEN SDN HUN CHN GIN GHA MRT LVA ROU RUS JOR NAM TUN IDN MLI PAK GTM ISR HKG MAR BGR BFA KGZ AFG SAU UKR YEM KEN BWA NGA AGO MKD MDGTZA TJK KAZ SVK IRN MYS SRB ZMB JAM DZA AZE HRV MDAGUY SYR BLZZAF COG GEO BLR BEN SLE BGD CMR ALB CZE DJI TUR MWI CAF KHM TGO SGP BIH THA IND UGA LKA LTU Proportion agreeing 0.90 LBR COD 0.80 0.70 ZWE BDI HTI TCD RWA ETH 0.60 MNG JPN KOR LAO 0.50 MMR Correlation = 0.46 NPL .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 44 Did you have good tasting food to eat yesterday? 1.00 Proportion agreeing PRT IRL FIN CAN AUT NLD GUY NZL TTO SVN USA PRY SWE AUS MEX LAO DNK BEL HRV VEN GBR SVK KWTNOR JAM SRB EST ARE HUN CHE PAN DEU ITA THA MNG UZB EGYBIH CZE ESP SEN MKD CRI ARG BGR MRT URY SAU ECU POL JOR BLZ GHA NGA BRA LTU CYP SDN ROU COL CHL MDG FRA JPN ISR KAZ KGZ SLV LBN HND GTM BOL IRNMYS UKR GIN RUS DOM PER TUR NAM LVA GRC MOZNPL ZAF TZA NICPHL ALB AZE BLR KOR AFG MMR KEN TJK PAK SLE HKG VNM AGO CMR NER MLI TGO MDA BWA SGP MAR MWI KHM CAF IND BFA ZMB UGA TCD TWN ARM HTI BGD YEM CHN GEO RWA BEN ETH IDN LKA 0.80 LBR COD 0.60 ZWE 0.40 BDI Correlation = 0.60 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 45 Did you smile or laugh a lot yesterday? 0.90 NAM SLV CRI VEN PAN IRL LAONIC PRY BRA PHL ECU ESPCAN HND NGA ARG NZL GTM THA MEXTTO CYP COL KWT TWN BEL USA JAM NLD CHN AUS JPN DOM ZAF SDN IDN GBR LKA CHL DNK URY BOL AUT CHE GUY SWE NOR MYS PRT FRA PER MRT VNM TZA BLZ MDG GHA HKG FIN RWA BWA GRC EGY MLIZMBKHM POL DEU ARE KEN MOZ MWI NER ITA DJI SEN KOR CZE MAR ISR SGP GIN PAK JOR UZB TUN SAU SLE UGA HTI KGZ COG DZA TUR MMR BFABEN AGO IND HUN SVN YEM SYR KAZ CMR IRN SVK AFG NPL TJK UKR ROU RUS LVA EST ETH BGD LTU BGR BLR TCD MNG CAF BIH MKD MDA TGO LBN HRV ARM Proportion agreeing 0.80 LBR 0.70 ZWE 0.60 0.50 COD ALB SRB AZE 0.40 Correlation = 0.29 BDI .25 .5 GEO 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 46 Would you like to have more days just like yesterday? 0.90 KWT HND SLV SGP MEX PRY VEN CRI MRT PAN DJI GTM UZB NIC IDN ECU ARG SAUESP PAK JAM COL KEN IRL TZA NGA PHL BOL AFG ARE DNK URY NER PRT FRA MOZMLI SEN BRA SWE BEL CAN NLD NOR MKD BLZ PER ZAF MYS USA CHE NPL CZE NAM GUY BIH AGO HKG CHL SRB THA MDG GHA LTU HUN VNM LKA ESTNZL TTO DOM KGZ LAO SDN IND JOR ISRGBR BGR ZMBTJK AUS HRV SVN BFA POL UKR KAZ FIN LVA TUR JPN AUT CYP ROU MWI UGA TCD BWA KHM SLE GIN CHN TWN EGY ETH HTI GRC SVK MDA LBNRUS RWA BGD CMR BLR KOR MAR ITA MNG SYR DEU MMR BEN AZE CAF COG ALB TGO DZA ARM YEM IRN TUN Proportion agreeing 0.80 0.70 0.60 ZWE BDI COD LBR 0.50 0.40 Correlation = 0.21 GEO .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 47 Were you able to choose how you spent your time all day? 0.90 KWT JPN ESP VNMPHL SLV CHN PRY BEL NGANIC CRI VEN TTO ITA ARM IRL PAN BRA FRA NAM TWN COL MDG AUT AFG MRTPAK HND GTM ECU ARE DOM MYS HKG UZB JAM PRT KEN LAO NER NLD DNK TZA MEX KOR ZAF SEN SAU GBR FIN GIN UGAGHA HUN ARG TGO SWE AGO URY THA SLE CAN SDN IDN BLZ POL USA CAF NZL AUS BOL RWA ZMB CMR CHE PER CHL EGY BWA BFABEN NOR ROU DEU SGP LBN JOR MWI MOZ BGR LVA SVN LKA KAZ GUY MAR MLI YEMMNG SRB RUS HRVEST GRC KHM MDA UKR MKD TCD BLR KGZ SVK BIH LTU ETH CZEISR TJK CYP BGD IND NPL TUR HTI IRN MMR 0.80 Proportion agreeing LBR COD 0.70 ZWE BDI 0.60 0.50 GEO 0.40 AZE ALB Correlation = 0.13 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 48 Anger IRN Proportion who experienced this feeling during a lot of the day yesterday 0.40 ARM DZA HTI 0.30 SLE YEM PHL SYR GUY PAK TUN LBN ARE SVK ISR BOL JOR GEO CZE FRA EGY TGO AZE SAU BIH SRB BGDTCD COG CHL CAF BFA BLZ ECU MKD MAR UGA POL KOR COL PER IDN LTU GINTZA IND SGP AGO SEN BEN ETH ARG AFG LAO UZB NGA CMR ESP MYS TTO JAM LKA ALB MDA ZMBKHMSDN ROU USA VENHRV MNG GTM DEU BEL CYP HUN SVN GBR GRC AUS BRA BLR ITA NZL GHA MWI URY TJK BWA MRT JPN CAN KWT HKG MDG CHN MOZ ZAF DOM DJI UKR TWN CRI LVA NERRWA DNK CHENOR MLI KEN NIC THAKAZ AUT EST IRL BGR RUS NAM SWE SLV PAN PRY NPL VNM KGZ MEX PRT NLD HND LBR BDI COD 0.20 TUR ZWE 0.10 MMR FIN 0.00 Correlation = 0.13 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 49 Boredom TUR Proportion who experienced this feeling during a lot of the day yesterday 0.50 GEO ARM AZE SYR DZA MAR 0.40 YEM AFG ETH 0.30 PHL KHM TUN ALB LBN HKG IDN EGY BOL BLZ GRCARE RWA PER KOR CHL MDA AGO COL SRBMEX MKD USA SLE TGOUGA TJK GUY ISRGBR BIH SAU MYS GIN SLV ROU CMR ECU GTM THA URYHRV BEN KEN BLRARG BGDTCD PAK AUS NOR SGP ITA CAN BWA ESP IRL TTO NZL BGR CHN CRI UKR JAM POL LKA DOM UZB SDN GHA KGZ KAZ RUS ZAF CAF NPL TWN JPN VEN LTU HND TZA KWT IND BFA NAM MOZ MDG FIN ZMBSEN EST CYP SVK SWE PRT FRA MLI PAN VNM MWI BRA LVACZE BEL CHE MNGPRY NER SVNDEU DNK MRT AUT NGA HUN = 0.11 LAO NLD MMR NIC ZWE LBR BDI 0.20 COD 0.10 HTI JOR IRN Correlation .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 50 Sadness Proportion who experienced this feeling during a lot of the day yesterday 0.40 KHM LBR SLE 0.20 TUR HTI PRT IRN NIC TGO ROU MDA CHL DOM BLR YEM COG EGY AGO SYR LTU ECU BGD COL ITA HRV LBN BEN PAK BGR ARG CMR GUY ISR SRB CAF BRA RWA GIN GBR GTM AZE HUN POL SVK GEO UKR BLZKAZ MOZ MEX LVA SLV URY RUS DZA BIH CRI VNM ALB BFA ESPARE CYP ETHUGA ZMB IND IDN BWA LKA TCD SDN TUN ZAF EST JAM SGP DEU AFG GRC TZA PRY BELUSA FRA MAR TTO NZL HND AUS JOR GHA CHE CZE CAN TJK MWI MKD VEN IRL UZBMNG KOR SVN KWT SEN NLD NER MDG PAN KGZ AUT NOR NGA MLI KEN MYS SAU SWE DNK HKG NPL NAM JPN FIN MRT DJI LAO CHN THA TWN 0.30 ZWE BOL PHL ARM PER BDI COD 0.10 MMR 0.00 Correlation = 0.15 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Realand GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 51 Worry 0.60 Proportion who experienced this feeling during a lot of the day yesterday HRV BOL 0.50 TGO MOZ 0.40 LBR COD BDI 0.20 0.10 PER DZA PRT SRB CHL ARG URY PRY BRA AGO TUN ROU ISR ITA GIN EGY DOM COLIRN KOR HKG ECU BIH CAF SLE BFA LBN SVK CMR PHL SYR HUN CYP NLD CRI COG CAN LVA GRC BGD MDA JOR MKD TUR MEX BELUSA SLV CZEESP ALB AZE GTM NZL MAR FRA CHE PAK POL IDN AUS TCD BGR LTU GBR GUY BLR SEN FIN VNM HTI BWA ARE ZAF UGA IND HND VEN MLIZMB EST DEU JPN UKR BLZ SGP SAU THA AFG MWI SDNMNG GEO MDG RUS PANMYS CHN IRLNOR DNK AUT NER NPLGHA TTO NAM RWA KWT MRT NGA UZB ETH TZAKEN JAM SWE KAZ LAO LKA KGZ TJK TWN ZWE 0.30 ARM SVN Correlation = 0.09 YEM KHM BEN NIC DJI MMR .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 52 Were you proud of something you did yesterday? LAONIC VEN CRI NGA PAN ECU NER SLV MRT NZL NAM COL SDN KHM SEN TTO GIN THA HND CAN DOM USA GTM MLI IRL BOL PRY AUS BRA PER GUY CHL BLZ IDN MEX SVN JAM ARG KEN KWT ZMB CMR MOZ BFA ESP ROU SLE URY AUT TZA ZAF KOR SWE UZB AGO SAU NLD FIN TGO GHA MYS GBR CHE MWI POL HUN ITA UGA CAF TCD AFG DNK NOR BEL PRTISRDEU MDA SRB TUR BIH MDGHTI BWA SVK CYP PHL EGY MKDLBN HRV ARE LVA EST VNM KGZ CZE TJK FRA UKR KAZ LTU GRC BEN BLR RWA SGP ETH PAK ARMALB RUS JPN MAR JOR LKA CHN AZE IRN BGR YEM Proportion agreeing 0.80 BDI LBR 0.60 COD ZWE 0.40 MMR NPL BGD 0.20 IND MNG TWN HKG GEO Correlation = 0.00 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real and GDPWolfers, per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson Subjective Well-Being 32 64 53 Did you feel well rested yesterday? 0.90 KWT PRY IDN NAM Proportion agreeing 0.80 VEN CHN MYS JPN HND SLV THAPANMEX HKG CRI MRT ESP IRL COL VNMPHL SGP LAO ECU TWN AUT ARE NGA UZB NPL NIC MAR ZAF ARG PRT URY SAU NLD DJI GTM EGY TZA SDN BOL AFG MWI CHE KEN GHA SEN KOR BEL CAN MLI GIN FIN MNG BLZ DOM NER JOR SVN COG DNK NOR PER UGA CHL BWA MKD ZMBKHM PAK GUY BRA DEU JAM SWEUSA IND MOZ BGD KGZ BGR CMR GBR AGO TUNSRB RWA TTO NZL IRN FRA AUS ISR SLE KAZ LKA BIH POL TUR ITA GRC CZE TCD BEN SVK HRV EST CAF BFA HTI TJK LBN LVA SYR UKR ROU RUS LTU YEM TGO MDG DZA BLR MMR ETH CYP MDA HUN AZE ALB GEO ARM 0.70 COD 0.60 ZWE LBR BDI 0.50 0.40 Correlation = 0.14 .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 54 Did you learn or do something interesting yesterday? Proportion agreeing 0.80 VEN NGA SLV NIC GUY ECU PAN CRI GTM GIN MRT NER DJI COL TTO NZL NAM KWT MLI SEN JAM HND BLZ THA CAN PHL PRY SLE BOLAGO MEX KEN SDN NOR PER DOM USA DNK TZA AUS BRA CHL RWA ZMB IRL VNM CMR GHA SWE FIN ARE CAF MOZ JPN CHE AFG MYS ARG UGA AUT PRT GBR MWI ZAF BWA ESP TCD FRA URY COG SAU LAO BFA EGY SVN BEL ISRDEU HTI CZE BIH ETH HRV IDNJOR ITA SGP MKD UZB CYP EST NLD LVA BEN POL MDA SYR DZA SRB ROU LBN TWN MAR TGO LTU GRC KGZ TJK UKR KAZ RUS YEM SVK KOR PAK LKA AZE TUN TUR HUN IRN ARM BLR KHM CHN IND ALB MMR HKG MDG BGR MNG NPL LBR 0.60 COD ZWE 0.40 BDI 0.20 Correlation = 0.01 BGD .25 .5 GEO 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 32 64 55 Love Proportion who experienced this feeling during a lot of the day yesterday 1.00 RWA KHM HUN TTO CYP LBN CRI NGA ESP TZA LAO MEX ECU JAMBRA VEN ARG BEL GRC CAN DNK USA PRT NLD VNM NZL ITA COL URY MDG DOM TUR ARE SAU AUS MWI CAF GHA ZAF PANCHL KEN PAK ZMB NAM NIC DEU IRL SWE CHE AUT GBR FRA KWT FIN SLV HND PER SRB EGY BIH SLE IND TWN BGD BLZ HRV SVN MKD BOL MOZ HTI IRN CHN NOR LKA POL GTM THA UGA ISR SDN JORALB GIN BWA BFA ROUMYS NER MLI SEN IDN AGO AFG HKG CMR BGR SVK NPL CZE JPN SGP MRT KOR MMR BEN LVA TGO EST LTU RUS TCD YEM UKR ETH AZE TJK MDA KAZ MAR BLR GEO PRY GUY 0.80 LBR ZWE 0.60 PHL BDI COD 0.40 KGZ UZBMNG ARM 0.20 Correlation = 0.19 .25 1 2 4 8 16 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being .5 32 64 56 Physical Pain Proportion who experienced this feeling during a lot of the day yesterday 0.50 SLE CAF LBR 0.40 TGO ETH EGYDZA SYR YEM CMR SDN NER JOR PER SEN BEN COG CHL AGO TUN ARM DOM ARG BFA MRTNIC BOL AZE ROU PAK MOZ TZA UGA ISR KWT GIN TCD ALB HUN GEO ECU KHM RWA GHA PRT ESP BRA FRA IRN CRIMEX LKA SLV COL GTM UKR LBN CYPBEL URY BWA KOR MWI VEN CHESGP NGA TJK USA HRV SVN MAR GUY BGD GRC MLI KAZ BLR KGZ IND NPL NZL HND SVK PHL GBR CAN AUS AFG MMRZMB UZB BLZSRB TTO ITA PRY BIH ARE ZAF MKD LTUCZE DEU TUR DJI THA BGRRUS DNK AUT PAN LVASAU SWE MDG KEN NLD FIN NAM POL JPN NOR IDN MYS EST TWN IRL HKG CHN JAM MNG LAO 0.30 ZWE BDI COD 0.20 0.10 MDA HTI Correlation = 0.39 VNM .25 .5 1 2 4 8 16 32 Real GDP per Capita at PPP ($000s, log scale) Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being Source: Alan Krueger, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers, “A World of Pain”. 64 57 A Global Map of Pain Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 58 Blank slide: End of talk Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 59 Research Program Research program (with Betsey Stevenson) that seeks to establish robust stylized facts about subjective well-being Relationship between income and happiness “Economic Growth and Happiness: Reassessing the Easterlin Paradox” Consequences of income inequality “The Happiness Price of Income Inequality” (in progress) Happiness and gender “The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness” Subjective well-being and the business cycle “Is Business Cycle Volatility Costly?” Trends in the distribution of happiness “Happiness Inequality in the United States” Affect versus evaluative measures of well-being “A World of Pain” (also with Alan Krueger) Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 60 Subjective Well-Being and the Business Cycle Business Cycle andthe Happiness, U.S.Cycle Subjective Well-Being and Business Correlation = -0.45 0.10 -2 Standardized happiness index 0.05 0 0.00 1 -0.05 2 3 -0.10 Unemployment rate - Natural Rate Scale reversed -1 Happiness Unemployment, relative to NAIRU (right axis; inverse scale) 4 -0.15 1970 1980 1990 2000 Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being 2010 62 Satisfaction Ladder (%"Thriving": Satisfaction >8) 30 Stevenson and Wolfers, Subjective Well-Being Sep-09 Aug-09 Jul-09 Jun-09 May-09 Apr-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Dec-08 Nov-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Aug-08 55 Jul-08 60 Jun-08 May-08 Apr-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Jan-08 New Opportunity: Daily Data Satisfaction: Daily Data Source: Gallup Daily Poll 50 45 40 35 63 The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and NBER UC Berkeley Psychology and Economics Seminar, October 14 2008. Happiness %>median happiness / Estimated happiness index in the United States Happiness in theHappiness United States %>Median Happiness: Ordered probit index: Women Women Men Men Difference .4 .2 0 -.2 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: General Social Survey Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 2010 65 Inequality and Subjective Well-Being Betsey Stevenson Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; CESifo and NBER Justin Wolfers Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; CEPR, CESifo, IZA and NBER Research Question Does inequality undermine average levels of subjective well-being? Surprisingly mixed findings: “The presumed link between equality and happiness fails to appear, at least where income inequality is concerned. Average happiness is as high in countries with great income inequality as in nations where income differences are small” –Veenhoven (2000) Including inequality in our regressions using the available data, we find that is has a negative effect, although its’ size and significance levels are both low. –Di Tella and MacCulloch (2008) “In the whole World Values Survey sample, the Gini coefficient has a positive (albeit not always significant) effect on life satisfaction.”—Guriev and Zhuravskaya (JEP 2008, p.157) “Adding a World Bank estimate of the Gini coefficient for each national economy added no explanatory power to the well-being equation.”—Helliwell (2003) Stevenson & Wolfers, Inequality & Happiness 67 A Simple Framework Individual well-being: Average well-being in each country: Which implies: Average of log income, not Log of average income Equal and opposite effects Stevenson & Wolfers, Inequality & Happiness 68 Satisfaction and Inequality, Conditional Log GDP Conditional Relationship Between GDP &onMLD 2.0 Satisfaction E[Standardized satisfaction | Log GDP] Satisfaction = 0.30*log GDP (se=0.02) -0.22*inequality (se=0.14) 1.0 CRI DNK GUY FINCOD GTM NZLVEN NLD PANCOL CHE CAN SWE JAM MEX MOZ ISR AUS NOR BEL IRL VNM BRA LBR USA LAO NPL JOR AUT UZB BDIBGD MWI CAF TKM HND MDA ESP GHA DJI IND GBR NER N GA ARG UGA RWA MDG ETH PAK THA ZMB NIC CZE KGZ ITA PRY TJK FRA MYSIDN SEN GIN SLV TTO DEU URY CHL TZA MRT MLI EGY TUN MAR KAZ PHL LUX ECU GRC HRV BLR YEM DZA KEN SGP LTU POL CIV TCD BFA CMR UKR MNG HTI DOM SLE KHM JPN ROU PER IRN CHN SVN BIH TUR PRT RUS LKA ALBAZE BEN ARM SVK KOR EST TGO MKD HUN LVA ZWE GEOHKGCOG 0.0 BOL NAM ZAF AGO BWA COM BGR -1.0 -2.0 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 Inequality: E[Mean log deviation | Log GDP] (World Bank Inequality Data) Stevenson & Wolfers, Inequality & Happiness Source: Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers, “Inequality and Subjective Well-Being”. -0.4 -0.2 69 Variation in Log GDP and Mean Log Deviation Frequency 30 Inequality: Mean 25 20 15 10 5 *Bars are 1/20th as wide 0 -4 -3 -2 30 Inequality: 25 20 15 10 5 *Bars are 1/20th as wide 0 -4 -3 -2 $1 28 k 2 $6 4k 1 $3 2k 0 $1 6k -1 $8 k -2 $4 k $2 k $1 k k -3 $. 5 $. 2 5k 25 20 15 10 5 0 -4 Frequency Frequency; Number of countries Frequency Distribution of Log GDP and Inequalty 30 Log GDP per Capita: SD=1.34 3 4 Log Deviation (Gallup measure): SD=0.16 -1 0 1 2 3 4 3 4 Mean Log Deviation | Log GDP: SD=0.14 -1 0 1 Variation around the mean; Log points Stevenson & Wolfers, Inequality & Happiness 2 Source: Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers, “Inequality and Subjective Well-Being”. 70 Happiness Inequality in the United States Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and NBER Wharton August 20, 2008 Aggregate Happiness Trends: Comparing Dist’ns De-Meaned Level of Happiness Units: Cross-sectional SD(happiness) Trends in the Distribution of U.S. Happiness Average Happiness 0.20 0.00 -0.20 Assuming that the distribution of happiness is: Normal -0.40 Variance of happiness Relative to average level in sample 1972 1976 1980 1984 Logistic 1988 1992 Uniform 1996 2000 2004 2008 1996 2000 2004 2008 Happiness Inequality 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 72 Average Happiness Levels Estimated as Average Happiness = Group*Year Fixed Effects Trends in Average Levels of Happiness Between Groups 0.25 0.00 -0.25 Education -0.50 -0.75 College grads Some college High school <High school Race Gender Men White Women Non-white 0.25 0.00 -0.25 Region -0.50 Marital Status Age Group 18-34 yrs 35-49 yrs 50+ yrs -0.75 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970 Married 1980 Unmarried 1990 2000 2010 1970 Northeast Midwest South West 1980 Sacks, Stevenson & Wolfers, Income and Happiness 1990 2000 2010 73