3-PLANNING PROCESS 3.1 Integrated project planning 3-2The work breakdown structure 3-3 Network Logic (CPM) 3.4 Estimating fundamentals :Time, cost and budget 3.5 Scheduling : Gantt chart and PERT 3-6 OUTPUTS Summary key points Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 1 3.1 Integrated project planning Module Overview • • • • Planning Process : why plan? Project plan : what inside? Integrated project planning model Managing the change to the plan Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 2 The Planning Process Parker’s Proverb Planning is like insurance. It’s too expensive until you need it, and then it’s too late. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 3 Why plan? Why would you not plan? As much or as little as you need to demonstrate to stakeholders that you have thought of everything, and have a plan to get there. . Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 4 Why plan? Why would you not plan? The better we plan, the better we can execute on time and within budget to meet customer expectations and organizational objectives. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 5 Why plan? To manage Project we need constructing a model The model can be simple or complex The Triple constraint ( time, cost, performance) is a simple three element model of a project system Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 6 What is in a project plan? Your plan may include: • Introduction – – – – Overview, Deliverables, Constraints, Definitions Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 7 What is in a project plan? Your plan may include: • Management structure – – – – Project reporting, Communication Plan, Risk Management, Change management Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 8 What is in a project plan? Your plan may include: • Planning – – – – – – – Activity schedule Resource identification, Resource allocation Project Charter, Quality Assurance Plan, Test and/or Training plans, ImplementationPrepared Plan.by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 9 Building a Foundation for Success • If the problem is poorly defined — limit scope and work to defining it! • If the solution is not clear — limit scope and work to analyzing options and recommending one! Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 10 PLANNING PROCESS In the early phases: this is preparing the Project Management Plan and defining exactly what will happen. In later phases : it is ensuring that the earlier planning is still valid, and incorporating any changes in resources or contingencies arising. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 11 Planning Process Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 12 Planning Process Activities in this group are: Develop Plan Project management Scope Planning Scope definition Create Work Structure Activity Definition Activity Sequencing Activity Resource Estimating Activity Duration Estimating Schedule Development Cost Estimating Cost Budgeting Quality Planning Human Resource Planning Communications Planning Risk Management Planning Risk Identification Qualitative Risk Analysis Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk Response Planning Plan Purchases and Acquisitions Plan Contracting Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi Breakdown 13 Project Planning The project planning process consists of the following. This a basic description of the steps: 1.Setting the project start date 2. Setting the project completion date 3. Selecting the project methodology or project life cycle to be used Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 14 Project Planning 4.Determining the scope of the project in terms of the phases of the selected project methodology or project life cycle 5.Identifying any predetermined interim milestone or other critical dates which must be met. 6.Listing tasks, by project phase, in the order in which they might be accomplished. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 15 Project Planning 7. Estimating the personnel necessary to accomplish each task 8. Determining skill level necessary to perform each task 10. Determining task dependencies - Which tasks can be done in parallel - Which tasks require the completion of other tasks before they can start Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 16 Planning Is Done Phase by Phase Concept Phase Start Scope Work End Problem Project Plan Design Phase Start Concept Documents End Const. Phase Start Design Documents Updated Project Plan Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 17 Integrated Project planning •Integration is a process of synthesizing different concepts into a unified Whole •Project management is primarily an interactive activity: Most product failure is at the interface of subsystems The biggest complaint of people in projects is poor communications Senior managers expect PM taking a strategic and holistic perspective on the project •We adopt the model published by the Project Management Institute Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 18 Integrated Project planning PMI model PROCUREMENT Risk COMMUN I-CATION SCOPE TIME Project Planning HUMAN RESOURCE S Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi COST QUALITY The team performs integration with respect to the other 19 3-2 Work Breakdown Structure Module Overview • • • • • Definition The elements of a WBS WBS structure 6 steps to develop a WBS Tips and tricks Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 20 Work Breakdown Structure Abram’s Advice When eating an elephant, take one bite at a time. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 21 Work Break Down structure WBS A definition • Awork breakdown structure(WBS) is a hierarchic decomposition or breakdown of a project or major activity into successive levels, in which each level is a finer breakdown of the preceding one. • The WBS may be drawn in a diagrammatic form (if automated tools are available) or in a chart resembling an outline. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 22 Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) • A structured definition of all the work of a project: – The things we have to do. – The documents we have to produce. – Any other tangible items we have to create. • The WBS includes both management work and technical work. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 23 Thesaurus (3) • Deliverables may also be called: – Sub-deliverables – Outputs – Work packages Cost accounts Significant accomplishments • Activities may also be called: – Tasks – Work packages • Collectively, they are called work-items. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 24 Using the WBS • Activities will be used as inputs to: – Effort and cost estimating – Sequencing and scheduling • Deliverables may be used as: – Scheduling milestones – Progress measurement check points Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 25 WBS Organized by Key Component My New House Project Management … Residential Structure … Swimming Pool … … Foundation Framing … Prepared by Pr … Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi Finish Work … 26 WBS Organized by Phase New Product Project Management … Start-up Meeting … Requirements Document Interview Notes … User Acceptance … … Prepared by Pr … Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi Report … 27 WBS For project phases The first WBS level for the life cycle would be: WBS number Task Description 1.0 Project initiation 1.1 Draft project plan 2.0 Analysis phase 2.1 Plan user interviews 2.2 Schedule users interviews 3.0 Examination and test 4.0 Design 5.0 Test Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahya6.0 PrImplementation Abdelghani Toumi 7.0 Post implementation review 28 WBS — Tips & Tricks • Decompose as much as you can now; revisit detail as needed. • Remember to include a branch for project management! • Characteristics of the lowest level: – One clear owner – Able to estimate effort and duration Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 29 Tips & Tricks (cont’d) • Developing a WBS can be a real challenge if: – You don’t understand the scope. – The scope is poorly defined. • The activities (lowest level) should be the same regardless of how the deliverables (upper levels) are organized. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 30 Sample: WBS of wastewater plant Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 31 Exercise: WBS (1) • Follow the “Six Simple Steps” to develop a WBS on the slide for your group project: – Use sticky-notes to capture the information. – Generate detail for one branch at a time. – Document additional assumptions as appropriate. • Try to develop 2 or 3 levels Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 32 Exercise: WBS (2) • Document your lessons learned: – About the project you were planning. – About developing a WBS. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 33 Summary of Key Points • There is no “one right way” to construct a work breakdown structure. • AWOW — all the work and only the work. • Post-Its really help! Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 34 3-3 Network Logic Module Overview • Basic sequencing terminology • Common errors to avoid • Tips and tricks Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 35 Network Diagrams Activity scheduling • The most popular method is called Activity on Node or activity on Arrow. • The task (activity) is represented by a node or Arrow, which also shows the time expected. • Take the list of tasks from your Work Breakdown Structure • Determine any tasks that depend on other tasks. • Attach resources to each task (people cannot do two jobs at once). • Determine the timeline for the project. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 36 Activity-on-Arrow Network Fundamentals Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 37 Sequencing Terminology Subnet = Design Activities Milestone Activity A Req’ts Done Activity B Activity C Activity D Dependency Activity E • B is predecessor • E is successor Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi Design Done 38 Exercise: Basic Concepts • Working in teams, create a network logic diagram for the breakfast “project” on the next slide. • Assume unlimited resources and use finish-tostart dependencies. • Sequence the activities as shown but note any problems, issues, or assumptions. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 39 Exercise : Breakfast Project • Juice — get glass, get juice from fridge, pour juice, put glass with juice on table. • Coffee — get coffee pot, fill pot with water, put coffee in pot, make coffee, get cup from cabinet, pour coffee, put cup with coffee on table. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 40 3-4 Estimating Fundamentals time, cost and budget Module Overview • What do we estimate and why? • The estimating process Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 41 Estimating Drive Time Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 42 What Do We Estimate? • Effort — labor units required to complete an assignment; usually hours of a person’s time. • Duration — work periods required to complete an assignment. • Elapsed time — calendar periods required to complete an assignment. • Cost — monetary value of labor, materials, and contracts. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 43 The Estimating Process : Factors to consider • Planning Horizon : the quality estimates of the current events are close to 100% accurate but are reduced for more distant events. • Long duration Project increases uncertainty in estimates • A new technology : implementing a new technology with a poor written scope specifications result in errors in estimating Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 44 The Estimating Process : Factors to consider 1-People : Accuracy of estimates depends on the skills of people making the estimates How people skills are near to the work to do? Team harmony ? 2-Project Structure : the type of project structure chosen influence time and cost estimates ( Example : a dedicated project team Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahyais speedy but costly as a permanent structure) Pr Abdelghani Toumi 45 The Estimating Process : Factors to consider 3-Other non-project factors : Holidays, legal limits 4- Responsibility: estimates should be done by persons most familiar with the task 5-Delphi estimating Method : Use several persons to estimate and find consensus 6-Time unit : specific time units to use should be selected early in the development phase 7-Adding risk assessment to the estimates : help to avoid surprises to stakeholders Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 46 The Estimating Process Review • Define and document: – Work to be done (based on scope) – Assumptions (about scope or work) – Range of possible outcomes – Relevant supporting detail • Review and revise as necessary Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 47 Effort Estimates and Project Budgets Rules are made for the guidance of wise folk and the obedience of fools. Anonymous Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 48 Module Overview • • • • Costing : some approaches Converting estimates into budgets Cost reserves Getting your budget approved Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 49 Costing The easiest way to cost the project is to take the WBS and estimate the costs of each activity. Other considerations include capital costs, disbursements, costs of delays, contingencies. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 50 Probable Time Estimate PERT is a management tool that is suited for research and development projects which are generally non-repetitive in nature and is sometime called “ once through” projects. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 51 Three time estimates namely 1. Optimistic time-estimated minimum time an activity will it take. Its probability is about 1 in 100 or 1% 2. Most Likely or probabilistic time- the estimated normal length of time an activity takes. This is the time expected that will most frequently required for an activity. 3. Pessimistic time-the estimated maximum time that will be required under the worst conditions. Its probability is about -1 in 100 or 1% Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 52 Probability of Occurrence Converting Estimates into Budgets Most likely 25 30 Budget = Expected value = (O + ML + P) / 3 35 Optimistic 50 Pessimistic Possible Outcomes Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 53 Terminologies in Statistics • Expected Value-is the weighted average of all possible values that this random variable can take on. • Variance-is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. It is one of several descriptors of a probability distribution, describing how far the numbers lie from the mean(expected value). • Standard Deviation-measure of variability or diversity used in statistics and probability. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 54 Summing Ranges • First, for each activity calculate: – Expected value = EV = ( optimistic + most likely + pessimistic ) / 3 – Variance = (( pessimistic – optimistic ) / 5 ) 2 • Then, for the project calculate: – Project – Project – Project project EV = sum of activity EVs variance = sum of activity variances standard deviation = square root of variance Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 55 Problem No.1 Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 56 56 Interpretation Problem No. 1 • Mean EV= 41.57 or 42 • Standard Deviation=20 This means that almost all activity can be finished(71% assuming a normal distribution) within 20 days of the mean (22 days-62 days). 5/7=71 Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 57 Exercise No. 1 . Determine the variance & standard deviation. Include the interpretation Opt ML Pess Send email to experts 3 5 8 Create tracking mechanism 2 3 5 75 100 125 125 150 250 Review 100 documents Develop design document … Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 58 Exercise No. 2: Effort, Budgets, and Reserves • Develop range estimates of effort for the activities at the lowest level of your WBS. • Record the estimates on the form provided: – Calculate the expected value for each. – Calculate the variance for each. • Sum the most likely values and the expected values. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 59 … continued • Calculate the standard deviation of your project estimate: – Sum the activity variances. – The square root of the sum is the project’s standard deviation. • Estimate a general cost reserve for your project. Be prepared to justify it. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 60 3-5Project Schedule You can take your horse to the river, you can not force it to drink water Arab proverb Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 61 3-4 Scheduling Module Overview • • • • • • Gantt chart Critical path calculations Preliminary schedules Baseline schedules Resource constraints Schedule reserve Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 62 Which Path Is Most Likely to Cause Delay? A (18) D (11) Start B (14) E (13) Activity (Duration) C (12) F (16) Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi Finish 63 Definitions: Critical Path • The network path: – Which is most likely to cause the project to be late. – With the longest duration. – Which determines the shortest total length of the project. – With the least amount of “float.” Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 64 Definition of Terms * Critical Path- the longest route in the network of activities representing a project. Activities along the critical path are called Critical activities of the project that may result of the delay in the entire project. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 65 * Earliest start (ES)- This is always equal to the earliest event at the beginning of an arrow which is sometimes called i-node. The point of an arrow is called j-node i-node J-node It is the first day after the physical assumption of the activity. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 66 * Earliest Finish (EF). This is the earliest possible time that an activity can be finished. It is equal to its earliest start plus its duration or time. Therefore: EF = ES + duration * Latest Start(LS). This is the latest time that an activity can begin and not delay the completion time of the overall project. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 67 If the earliest start and latest start times are the same then the activity is critical. Latest Finish(LF). This is the latest time that an activity can be finished and not delay the completion time of the overall project. LS = LF-duration Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 68 As with start times, the activity is critical if the earliest finish and latest finish times are the same. * Total Float(TF)- The span of time an activity can be delayed after its earliest start time without delaying the project completion. This is the difference between the earliest start time and the latest start time. TF = LF-EF or TF= LS-ES Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 69 Free Float (FF)- The span of time an activity can be delayed after its ES without delaying the ES of any succeeding actual activity that may be availed. It is equal to the ES of any of its succeeding real activities minus the EF of an activity in question. This is also equal to the earliest time at the i-node of the next succeeding real activity minus the EF of the activity. FF=ES-(ES + duration) Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 70 Critical Path Calculations • Forward pass — to determine the project’s “natural end date” based on its early start and early finish dates. • Backward pass — to determine late start and late finish dates. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 71 Critical Path Calculations EF = ES + Duration – 1 1 EF Start LS LF 4 9 10 B (10) 1 15 16 F (9) 14 11 10 11 23 M (8) 22 19 H (9) =0 1 7 6 A (6) ES =7 Activity (Duration) 23 30 20 30 Q (11) 19 11 20 Finish 30 27 L (17) 14 30 Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi LS = LF – Duration + 1 72 Problem: Using the following tabulation,(a) draw the network diagram. (b) determine the TF and FF. and (c) identify the critical activities & days Activity Duration 1-2 10 1-3 6 2-4 8 2-5 13 3-5 12 4-5 4 5-6 2 ES EF LS LF Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi TF FF Critical 73 Total (Path) Float • The amount of time an activity may be delayed without affecting the project’s currently predicted early finish date. • Total (Path) Float = Late Start – Early Start • Total (Path) Float is a measure of scheduling flexibility. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 74 GANTT CHART Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 75 GANTT CHART EXAMPLE Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 76 Two Kinds of Schedule! • Preliminary schedule: – Used for enterprise resource planning, project approvals – Produced when specific resources are not yet known, start date not yet confirmed • Baseline schedule: – Used for project planning and control – Produced when resource availability is Preparedstart by Pr Sulayman Alyahyaconfirmed, date is set Pr Abdelghani Toumi 77 Building a Preliminary Schedule • For effort-based activities, calculate the expected duration: – Budgeted effort hours / hours per period / percent available – Example: 24 hours / 6 work hours per day / 50% available = 8 days duration • For all other activities, use historical information or your best judgment. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 78 Exercise: Critical Path • Develop activity durations for each of the items in your WBS as described: – Use the expected value of your effort estimates and a 6 hour work day where appropriate. – Use your best judgment otherwise. • Determine a preliminary critical path for your project assuming that resources will be available when needed. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 79 Summary of Key Points • Network logic is independent of durations and resources. • Scheduling is fundamentally a resource management issue. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 80 Problem: Using the following tabulation,(a) draw the network diagram. (b) determine the TF and FF. and (c) identify the critical activities & days ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION PRECEDING ACTIVITY ACTIVITY TIME Application approval None 5 weeks A Construction plan A 15 B Traffic study A 10 C Service availability A 5 D E F G H check Staff report B,C Commission B,C,D approval Wait for F Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahyaconstruction Pr Abdelghani Toumi occupancy E,G 15 10 170 35 81 CRITICAL PATH • As managers, we must be sure that activities A,B,y,F,G and H are done on time. If any of those activities is late, the project will be late • Other paths are not critical because they can waste some time without slowing the project. For example, activity C, can take up to 5 extra weeks and not holdPrepared upbythe project. Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 82 Critical Path Analysis PERT developed in the 1950s to control large defense projects, and have been used routinely since then 'Critical Path Analysis' sounds very complicated, but it's a very logical and effective method for planning and managing complex projects. Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi 83