Acknowledgment: During the first years of my professional career I had the pleasure of working with many excellent professionals at Arthur Andersen. It is because of their hard work and dedication of advancing knowledge that this document was prepared. So I feel it is somewhat ashamed to see this document go to waste. Therefore, I have decided to make it available for students enrolled in Module 2 of my Excellence in Financial Management Program. This document is made possible by the folks at Arthur Andersen and I do not take any credit for this Tools and Techniques Handbook. – Matt H. Evans Tools and Techniques Handbook Table of Contents Tools and Techniques Key Question 1. Strategy Concepts Porter’s 5 Forces SWOT Growth Share (BCG) Matrix Product Life Cycle EOS : ROS – RMS EOS : Learning Curve Typical Output Format ROS / RONA Value Disciplines Happy Line Conversion Waterfall SWOT Tool Description What are the key market drivers ? What are the top-line factors affecting the issue at hand ? What industries or sectors should we be in ? What stage of the product cycle are we at ? Does size matter ? What are the benefits of scale or experience ? How well are we using our assets ? What type of possible strategies are there in this market ? Where are we over-satisfying our customers ? Where do we lose potential customers ? What are the top-line factors affecting the issue at hand ? 2. Key Visual Tools Typical Process Pareto Curve (“80:20”) Value Map (“Mekko”) Value Chain Weighted Column Maker Share Gain Line KPC Combs Harvey Balls Quotes Lollipops Channel Maps Conceptual Maps Forces at Work Crocodile Chart Parfait What matters ? What are the various segments and sub-segments ?. Where do our core competencies reside ? Which are the most profitable competitors in absolute terms ? Who has been gaining market share ? What are the main purchasing criteria, and how do we fare ? What is the best way to display “soft” quantitative data ? What is the best way to display qualitative data ? Tips data displays of my own ? Can I come upTricks with&creative What is the relative importance of various routes to market ? How can I simply structure a set of data before analysing it ? What are the forces at work ? Can I come up with creative data displays of my own too ? What is the easiest way to display market growth ? 3. Analysis Techniques Logic Tree Process Maps Sanity Checks Top-down Estimation One-Off Interviews Interview Programmes Focus Groups Clustering Factorial Analysis How does one organise the research ? What are the key steps ? Does this number make sense ? How can I estimate a sub-set ? What are the main issues with one-off interviews ? What are the main issues with interview programmes ? What are the main issues with organising focus groups ? How can I group people by preferences ? How can I group people’s preferences in broader sets ? 4. Sources Training Modules Desk Sources Usual AABC Sources Where can I find secondary data ? What are the usual AABC sources ? 2 Table of Contents Tools and Techniques Key Question Tool Description Typical Output Format 1. Strategy Concepts Typical Process Tricks & Tips Training Modules 3 Porter’s 5 Forces Tools and Techniques Key Question What are the key market drivers ? Tool Description Porter’s model is a great check list when starting to describe an industry. It helps you organise your research and, more importantly, provides a good framework in which to present your findings. Typical Output Format Porter’s 5 forces map Threat of New Entrants Bargaining power of Suppliers Rivalry among Competitors Bargaining power of Customers Threat of Substitution Typical Process Tricks & Tips • Start with top-line list of the main players in each of the 5 boxes - key competitors - key suppliers - key customers - most likely entrants - most likely substitution • Carry out lit. search on the names compiled above • Gather all relevant articles in one binder • “lift” most common comments into a word document • Organize results into 5 boxes • Summarize • Keep a good balance between words and data • “Force quantification” of words. For example if you read “customer power is likely to continue growing at broadly the same rate” try and find relevant data and write “customer power is likely to continue growing, keeping price hikes on historical level of 2%p.a.” • Think about Newton and Archimedes (every proactive force creates its own reactive force) and try capturing both the net effect and the 2 opposing forces • Ground model in the analytical process: what further research would be required to conclude on a given trend? Training Modules Market-I 4 SWOT Tools and Techniques Key Question What are the top-line factors affecting the issue at hand ? Tool Description The SWOT box is a less formal , more intuitive version of Porter’s model . It provides a good framework in which to lay out initial findings - and can be used to start a Logic Tree (see below) Typical Output Format SWOT analysis of Chelsea FC Strengths • • • • • Opportunities • Typical Process Experienced players Key real estate location “Cultured” football methods shared across the squad Midfield play • Attract further key international names Umbrella branding (internationally recognized name) • • • • • • Little development opportunities for the youth teams Old players more accident prone Low scoring Inexperienced manager Still backed by private investors MUFC and Arsenal keep getting bigger Leeds, Liverpool, etc back in contention for N° 3 spot Weaknesses Threats Tricks & Tips • Self-explanatory • Many issues are both an opportunity and a threat, or a strength and a weakness ! • Do not sit on the fence; you will revisit this analysis in due course but start by choosing a box for every phenomenon observed / anticipated Training Modules Competitor-I 5 Growth Share (BCG) Matrix Tools and Techniques Key Question Which industries or sectors should we be in? Tool Description The Share-Growth matrix is a simple matrix devised to visualise multiple investment alternatives. It helps you compares relative attractiveness of different shares vs. growth situations. It requires an Excel sheet and the Bubble function in the Chart Menu. Typical Output Format Fish food service segments, Share & growth, 1998 Segment FORECAST growth (%) Low 12,0% High Services 10,0% Hotels High 8,0% Pubs Restaurants 6,0% 4,0% Fish & Chips Health Catering 2,0% Low 0,0% Clubs -2,0% 0 Education 10 20 40 30 50 60% Segment share (% of market) Typical Process Tricks & Tips • Compile competitor or division market shares in their relevant market • Each quadrant of the matrix corresponds to a generic term, describing the strategic opportunities available to a company or division present there: - bottom-left quadrant, “dog”, small market share of a below par growth industry, little opportunity - top-left , “question mark”, small market share of an above par growth industry, good opportunity - top-right, “star”, big market share of above par growth industry, great opportunity - bottom-right, “cow”, big market share at below par growth, superb position but little opportunity , time to milk ! • Gather market growth rates for each industry or segment • Plot • Split chart in 4 quadrants : Dog; Question Mark; Star; and Milk • Do not worry exceedingly about accuracy of positioning of a given data point in the matrix but focus rather on relative positioning • Original BCG had the x-axis with RMS (relative market share) and was plotted with leaders on the left rather than the right Training Modules Market-I 6 Product Life Cycle Tools and Techniques Key Question What stage of the cycle are we at ? Tool Description The Product Life Cycle is a concept devised to keep in mind that relative competitive advantages can ebb and flow. It helps you position competitors or industries against one another and against a time line. Works better on a theoretical level rather than with lots of data Typical Output Format Product life cycle curve Measure or phenomenon (ie sales in £, penetration in %, etc) Time line of phenomenon (in years, or months, or days, etc) Typical Process Tricks & Tips • Find start date of timeline (i.e. first recorded mention of the technology, the product, the industry, etc) • Tip : it is usually quicker - and as illustrative to plot 3 or 4 milestones than it is plotting the whole line • Define a vertical axis (i.e. sales, penetration levels, etc) • Create Excel table with measurement records over time • Plot Training Modules Market-II 7 EOS : ROS - RMS Tools and Techniques Key Question Does size matter ? Tool Description The ROS-RMS is a simple chart displaying together relative size of competitors and profitability levels. It requires an Excel table and the Bubble function in the Chart Menu. The parallel band lines need be added afterwards Typical Output Format ROS - RMS Industry A ROS - RMS Industry B 25% ROS 20 (last 3 years, 15 %) 10 ROS (last 3 years, %) 5 0 -5 25% 20 15 10 5 0,01 0,10 1,00 10,00 0 -5 0,01 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 RMS (log) Typical Process • Define list of competitors to be included, and order annual reports • Create Excel table with last year’s sales + last 3 years’ profits • Plot • Annotate competitors with incomplete and / or misguiding data, such as less than 3 years of profits; latest year of sales is not last year; finer data available includes other divisions, not just sales and profits of relevant segments, etc -25 1,00 10,00 RMS (log) Tricks & Tips • Order annual reports in advance : 2 weeks lead-time for foreign companies • Don’t forget 3 years average for ROS • Start plotting data you have : partial is better than nothing • Do not hesitate to call competitor directly - after clearance from case team manager - to gain idea of segment profitability (ie “higher than average of company”, etc) • Strip down competitor sales to relevant segments • Estimate comparative profitability of remaining segments Training Modules Competitor-I & II 0,10 8 EOS : Learning Curve Tools and Techniques Key Question What are the benefits of scale or experience ? Tool Description The Learning Curve is a very simple concept: it is the trend line of a set of data where the Y axis represents the cost/unit of the X axis. It requires an Excel table and the Scatter function in Chart Menu Typical Output Format Manufacturing scale curve, Biscuits industry, 1997 1,2 Cost per Tonne (excl. materials, 1,0 1993, £k/Tonne) 0,8 Linkoping Hatton Durango 0,6 A 10 times increase in scale represents a theoretical cost improvement of £275p.T. Some of this, however, would be offset by increased distribution and other costs Broxburn Lauragais Ashby X1 Gyor Carlisle Maastricht 0,4 Jyvas Hyva 0,2 0,0 1 000 10 000 X2 Dortmund R2 = 65% Genoa Tyneside 100 000 Manufacturing Capacity (kTonnes, 1996, Log scale) Typical Process Tricks & Tips • Define the exact value chain dimension whose learning curve you want to display (manufacturing, purchasing, etc) • • Careful! There are 2 versions of the “learning curve”. One is really about learning, the other really about scale • In the first case, the X axis represents the cumulative N° of units produced to date and the Y axis the cost/unit over time (A typical example is plane production. Few units produced per year, and the cost of each unit keeps coming down as assemblers get better at it with experience) Choose the number of data points you need (5 will result in rather illustrative outcome, 10 - 12 will give more confidence) • Gather data on cost/unit from client for relevant objects (eg: get exact capacity and cost/tonne for client in 4 plants) • In the second case, the X axis represents the size of a given process (eg. plant capacity) and the Y axis the cost/unit for this process in various plants. • Interview competitors’ relevant director for missing data using smart approach (eg: by how much would your cost/unit drop if you doubled size • Tip: manufacturing directors are not often approached for market research and thus tend to talk a lot Training Modules Competitor-II 9 ROS / RONA Tools and Techniques Key Question How well are we using our assets ? Tool Description The ROS-RONA is a simple chart displaying together asset turn and profitability of a set of competitors. It requires an Excel table and the Bubble function in the Chart Menu. The RONA iso-curves need be added afterwards Typical Output Format Major retailers ROS-RONA, UK, 1993-95 20% ROS (last 3 years, %) 1,8% 16% 14% Body Shop M&S 12% RONA (%) Boots 10% 8% WH Smith 6% 4% House of Fraser 2% 0% 0 1 2 70% 50% Kingfisher John Menzies 3 4 Typical Process 5 6 Asset Turn 7 8 30% 10% 9 10 Tricks & Tips • Check with manager the definition of net assets that will be used • Define list of competitors to be included, and order annual reports • Create Excel table with last year’s sales + last 3 years’ profits + last 3 years’ net assets • Plot, and create RONA iso-curves • Order annual reports in advance : 2 weeks lead-time for foreign companies • Annotate competitors with incomplete and / or misguiding data, such as different definition of net assets, less than 3 years of profits; finer data available includes other divisions, not just sales and profits of relevant segments, etc • Strip down competitor sales to relevant segments • Estimate comparative profitability of remaining segments • Let manager know early if agreed definition of net assets creates data problem - there are many possible definitions and another one might make things easier for you without affecting usefulness of information • Don’t forget 3 years average for ROS • Start plotting data you have : partial is better than nothing • Do not hesitate to call competitor directly - after clearance from case team manager - to gain idea of segment profitability (ie “higher than average of company”, etc) Training Modules Competitor-I & II 10 Value Disciplines Tools and Techniques Key Question What types of possible strategies are there in this market ? Tool Description The Value Discipline model helps you position competitors or industries against one another according to 3 possible main generic strategies. Works better on a theoretical level rather than with lots of data Typical Output Format Value disciplines, Car industry, UK, 1999 Product Leadership BMW Rolls Vauxhall Lada Daewoo Operational Excellence Typical Process Customer Intimacy Tricks & Tips • If without data : • If using data : • Define list of competitors to be included • Create Excel table with score of each competitor against each of the 3 dimensions • Position each competitor on map based on available evidence (lit.search, annual reports, brokers’ reports, gutfeel, etc) • Plot data using the Radar function in the Chart Menu Training Modules Competitor-I 11 Customer “Happy Line” Tools and Techniques Key Question Where are we over-satisfying our customers ? Tool Description The Customer “Happy Line” is a complex, but powerful concept that helps illustrate the areas where we under-deliver on customers’ expectations and those where we over-deliver. It requires an Excel table and the Scatter function in the Chart Menu. The Line needs be added afterwards Typical Output Format « Happy Line », Company X, Industy Y, 1999 10 Good Our score against each KPC (1 to 10) Average 9 8 7 6 Bad 5 4 9 8,5 8 Critical 7,5 7 6,5 Important 6 5,5 5 4,5 Secondary KPC Score (i.e. relative importance of criteria to Customers) Typical Process • Create Excel table with outcome of customer interview programme : average score given to each criteria and score of each competitor against the criteria • Plot client score, with X axis as criteria score • Set X axis so that Min and Max equal the scores of respectively the lowest and highest ranking customer purchasing criteria Tricks & Tips • Tip : set Y axis by choosing a relevant set of competitors for which to obtain lowest and highest scores (you do not want to benchmark the client against nohopers in the industry) • Happy Line goes from Top left of chart to the middle, and then horizontally to the right • Reverse X axis so that Max is to the left • Set Y axis so that Min and Max equal respectively the lowest and highest scores obtained by one of the relevant competitors against any criteria • Add Happy line Training Modules Customer-I 12 Conversion Waterfall Tools and Techniques Key Question Where do we lose potential customers ? Tool Description The Conversion Waterfall is a concept that helps you summarise the findings of a customer interview programme along 6 major measures. It requires an Excel table and the Bar function in the Chart Menu. Can work as well on a preliminary, data-less level Typical Output Format Conversion waterfall, Retailer X, France & Germany, 1997 % of population 100% 90% France Germany 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Awareness Knowledge Typical Process • Create Excel table with outcome of customer interview programme : share of the sample population that meets the successive measures Liking Preference Tricks & Tips • Self-explanatory • Plot Training Modules Customer-I Visit 13 Purchase Table of Contents Tools and Techniques Key Question Tool Description Typical Output Format 2. Key Visual Tools Typical Process Tricks & Tips Training Modules 14 Pareto Curve (“80:20”) Tools and Techniques Key Question What matters ? Tool Description The Pareto Curve is a simple and powerful concept : it posits that quite regularly 20% of a given population will account for 80% of this population’s actions with a third party (ie sales, purchases, etc). It requires an Excel table and the Scatter function in the Chart Menu* Typical Output Format Company X, Customer Pareto, 1998 100% Cumulative % of Sales 80% Pareto Rule 60% 20% of a given population accounts for 80% of this population’s actions (eg. 20% of a customer base account for 80% of sales) 40% 20% 0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Customers (Ranked by decreasing Sales) Typical Process • Let’s assume we are drawing a Pareto of a client’s customers • Gather client total sales, and sales by customer • Rank customers in column by decreasing sales • Calculate weight of each customer as a % of total client’s sales • Set-up column with cumulative share of customer sales • Plot scatter of cumulative sales column 90 100 Tricks & Tips • * : instead of using the scatter function you can use the Bar function, Select Data series, and set Options / Gap to “0” • Tip : do not despair if you only have sales of the Top 50 customers (or of the Top 50 suppliers) . Find out how many customers (or suppliers) make up the total list and posit that each of the smaller ones has the same - tiny - weight. You can now draw a pseudo-Pareto where the top right hand part of the curve will effectively be a nearflat straight line Training Modules Customer-I & II 80 15 Value Maps (“Mekko”) Tools and Techniques Key Question What are the various segments and sub-segments ? Tool Description A Mekko is a visually simple but analytically complex tool that helps you display in one sole slide 2 successive cuts at a data set (eg market size by product category and by product, industry sales by sector and by competitor, etc). It requires a special input tool; the “Mekko Maker” Typical Output Format General insurance market, UK, 1998 100% Personal vs commercial split for sector Property £8.2bn Accident Pecuniary & Health Loss £2.7bn £2.3bn Motor £6.8bn Other Extended Public/ Warranty General 80 60 Personal Property Liability = PI Personal Payment Protection 40 20 Total Market = £21.9bn Domestic Mortgage Private Non-Comprehensive Private Comprehensive Liability £ 1.9bn Commercial Property Commercial Vehicles Corp orate 0 20 40 60 Sector as per cent of UK market Typical Process • Create Excel table formatted as follows : - one segment by column - rank segments by decreasing size - each sub-segment of a given segment in the successive rows of the relevant column - rank sub-segments by decreasing size • Open “Mekko Maker” • Copy Excel table into “Mekko Maker” Employers Liability Consequential Loss Fleet 0 Other 80 100% Tricks & Tips • Tip : use only absolute measure of size (ie £), not market shares or other relative measures / ratios • For clarity of reading segments of size inferior to 5% of total market size should be grouped into an “other” segment • Likewise, all sub-segments of size inferior to 3% of total size of a given segment should be grouped into an “other” sub-segment • Use shading & patterns Training Modules Market-I & II 16 Value Chain Tools and Techniques Key Question Where do our core competencies reside ? Tool Description The Value Chain model helps you highlight for different competitors within a given industries the competencies each one has developed to succeed. Works better on a theoretical level rather than with lots of data Typical Output Format Value chain Finance HR Technology Logistics Purchasing Manuf’ing Typical Process Marketing Sales Tricks & Tips • Identify the main competencies in the industry • Do not hesitate to alter the arrow above • Create generic industry arrow with support functions and operating functions • Only principle to follow for visual : - horizontal division separate “support” functions from operating ones - key operating processes are split vertically • Gather from desk research (annual reports, articles, etc) and one-off interviews the area of the value chain where each competitor chooses to focus (“core competencies”) • This principle will justify treating different functions differently by industry (e.g. technology is a support competency in most industries, but a key operating one for a software company) • Tip : an organisation chart is often a good starting point to understand emphasis attached to the competency Training Modules Competitor-I 17 Weighted Column Maker Tools and Techniques Key Question Which are the most profitable competitors in absolute terms ? Tool Description A Weighted Column chart is a simple tool that helps you display at once both competitor profitability level and overall industry profits. It requires a special input tool; the “Weighted Column Maker” Typical Output Format Industry profitability, Industry X, 1995-98 20% ROS (last 3 15 years,%) Weighted Average = 10.0% 10 5 Comp 1 Comp 2 Etc 0 0 20 40 60 80 100% -5 -10% Share of Market, by Competitor Typical Process • Define list of competitors to be included, and order annual reports • Create Excel table with last year’s sales + last 3 years’ profits • Plot • Annotate competitors with incomplete and / or misguiding data, such as less than 3 years of profits; latest year of sales is not last year; finer data available includes other divisions, not just sales and profits of relevant segments, etc • Strip down competitor sales to relevant segments • Estimate comparative profitability of remaining segments Tricks & Tips • Order annual reports in advance : 2 weeks lead-time for foreign companies • Don’t forget 3 years average for ROS • Start plotting data you have : partial is better than nothing • Do not hesitate to call competitor directly - after clearance from case team manager - to gain idea of segment profitability (ie “higher than average of company”, etc) • Plot Weighted Average industry profitability line based on information you have, but indicate what total % of industry sales you have profitability data for Training Modules Competitor-I & II 18 Share Gain Line Tools and Techniques Key Question Who has been gaining market share ? Tool Description The Share Gain Line is a visually simple tool - if a bit difficult to grasp at first - that helps you display relative share performance of competitors in the market context. It requires an Excel table and the Bubble function in the Chart Menu. The “Zero-gain” line needs be added afterwards Typical Output Format Share movements by competitor, Music, Cards & Video retail, UK, 1995-1999 Competitors Growth (% over 4 years) 60% Competitors gaining share 50% Blockbuster Paperchase 40% WH Smith Disney Store 30% 20% Disney Store Boots WH Smith Woolworths J. Menzies Our Price 10% Woolworths J. Menzies Competitors losing share 0% -10% 0% -10% 10% WH Smith Music 20% 30% Cards 40% 50% 60% Video Total Market Growth Typical Process • Gather historical market data and compile market growth for each market • Define list of competitors to be included by market • Gather historical competitors sales data and compile competitors sales growth • Create excel table with market size Year Zero (Yo), market size now (Yn), competitors sales Yo and competitor sales Yn Tricks & Tips • Always write meaning of bisecting line on the chart: above line = gaining share below line = losing share • Tip : for multi-segments on one graph all the bubbles in a given market should be on the same vertical line • Plot • Draw line bisecting the two axes Training Modules Competitor-I & II 19 KPC Combs Tools and Techniques Key Question What are the main purchasing criteria, and how do we fare ? Tool Description The KPC Combs is a visually simple tool - if a bit difficult to grasp at first - that helps you display jointly both the importance of customer purchasing criteria and the ranking of competitors against those criteria. It requires an Excel table and the Bar + Line function in the Chart Menu Typical Output Format Key purchase criteria (KPC) comb, Industry X, Germany, 1999 10 Score (1 to 10) 9 8 7 Criteria Comp 1 Comp 2 Comp 3 Client 6 5 4 3 2 1 Criteria 1 Criteria 2 Criteria 3 Criteria 4 Criteria 5 Criteria 6 Key Purchasing Criteria Typical Process Tricks & Tips • Create Excel table with outcome of customer interview programme : average score given to each criteria and score of each competitor against the criteria • You can plot both the Criteria and competitors score using the same scale : draw chart as a Line chart, select the Criteria line; go into Chart Options and select a Bar • Plot • Do not forget to set minimum and maximum of Y axis to values of the range offered (eg from 1 to 10, not 0 to 10) • Tip : for a large interview programme, the dispersion of the average scores will be minimal. You can increase visibility of differences by setting Y values more finely on either side of the average (eg display from 3 to 8, or 4 to 7, instead of from 1 to 10) Training Modules Customer-I & II 20 Harvey Balls Tools and Techniques Key Question What is the best way to display “soft” quantitative data ? Tool Description Harvey Balls are a technique that helps you summarise the results of a benchmarking exercise where the item benchmarked obey different metrics. It needs to be hand drawn. Can work as well on a preliminary, data-less level Typical Output Format Competitor benchmark summary table, Mixed retailers, UK, 1999 Competitors KPI WH Smith John Menzies Boots Woolworths etc Supply chain efficiency Customer retention level Staff utilisation level Etc ... Typical Process • Select dimensions to be included in table • Write down a code for each dimension (ie what score justifies a full ball, what deserve half, what is a quarter, what is zero) Tricks & Tips • Tip : Write code before filling the table, as filling a Harvey Ball table usually throws open at least one implication that wasn’t foreseen with just the base data • If wanting a “Total” row, give a weighting to each dimension and calculate total for each column • Hand-draw Training Modules Competitor-I 21 Quotes Tools and Techniques Key Question What is the best way to display qualitative data ? Tool Description Quotes are a systematically under-used technique for displaying qualitative data in a powerful way. Typical Output Format “ There has bee a trend away from sport shoes and towards “work” boots worn as streetwear. This has been going on at the rate of 2-3% p.a. over the last 3 years, is getting stronger now, and is no longer just a teenage fashion” - J. Swartz, CEO, Timberland “Consumer shift towards good value and cheaper shoes, together with the availability of imports from the Far East and economically weaker countries have intensified price pressure and competition in the market” - Euromonitor “Camel is the best selling boot in Germany, with in excess of 5% market share” - Marketing Director, Camel UK Typical Process • Create on an on-going basis a database / binder of comments with good quote value • Write comprehensive notes during oneoff interviews • Manage a good filing system when carrying outlit. search Tricks & Tips • Format all quotes in a consistent manner, preferably as above • Try and get a number in every other quote, ie : – select the quotes on the basis of their number content (ex-post) – force interviewee to quantify qualitative statements (ex-ante) • Quote value rests in the nature of comment heard or read and / or in the authority of the source Training Modules Customer-I 22 Lollipops Tools and Techniques Key Question Can I come up with creative data displays of my own ? Tool Description Lollipops are a technique that helps you display in one sole slide a large number of detailed information across a large selection of objects (competitors, products, etc). It requires an Excel table and the Bubble function in the Chart Menu Typical Output Format Plant sizes & total capacity by competitor, Storage products industry, Europe, 1998 70k Plant size (k tonnes), E 60 50 D 40 30 20 10 0 UK B E NL 60k tonnes UK D D S N SF UK NL D UK B D D Total Capacity (k tonnes) Competitor Typical Process • Create Excel table with all the data required : one object / criteria per row (eg competitor) and one measure per box vertically (eg plant capacity of competitors plant) • Plot • A Lollipop chart is simply a creative answer to a regular problem : how to display a large number of data points, the detail of which is necessary but less important that the overall picture it paints Tricks & Tips • Tip1 : always try creative solution on paper before launching into big Excel manipulation • Tip2 : remember that a nicely laid out Excel table is always a more powerful visual than a cumbersome graph ... • A “Mekko” is another creative way to solve the problem described above • Any solution you may come up with that solves your display issue has got to be a good one ! Training Modules N/A 23 Channel Maps Tools and Techniques Key Question What is the relative importance of various routes to market ? Tool Description Channel Maps are a technique that helps you display the complexity of various routes to market whilst quantifying their relative importance. There isn’t a software available to generate them : they need to be hand drawn Typical Output Format Channel map, Construction materials, UK, 1999 Products £15.3bn Channels Additional Products* Construction Materials Manufacturers/Importers £22.3bn Distributors/Stockists Direct £3.2bn £4.4bn £7.0bn Specialist Merchants/ Factors Wholesalers £4.6bn Builders Merchants £6.3bn £0.8bn EndCustomers Builders/Contractors • Gather on one page all the data you have about the industry sales (manufacturer sales, retail sales, wholesale sales), and organize data into 3 tiers : products (or manufacturers), channels, and endcustomers (or retailers) • Firstly, draw the product and endcustomer horizontal bars • Secondly, draw the “direct” flow between these 2 bars (on the left of the above map), and infer from this a MSP to RSP ratio £0.5bn £7.3bn Tricks & Tips • Be sure to use the same units throughout, £100 of manufacturer sales can be exactly the same as £200 of retailer sales if RSP (retail selling price) = 2xMSP (manufacturer selling price) in thi industry .. • Tip : when possible volumes are a better measure than values (as stay the same throughout the flow normally…) • Thirdly, split this ratio in two to “body double” the MSP to WSP and WSP to RSP ratios, and “convert” your whole data set in the relevant unit you are using • Finally, draw a first map, and iterate... Training Modules Market-I £7.6bn Home Customers £18.2bn Typical Process DIY Stores, Superstores and Hardware shops, Garden Centres etc 24 Conceptual Maps Tools and Techniques Key Question How can I simply structure a set of data before analysing it ? Tool Description Conceptual Maps are basic techniques that help you breakdown complex issues into sub-sets so as to better either lay out the thinking, plan the research or map the results. They do not require intricate softwares; just a ruler, a pencil, and an eraser ... Typical Output Format Key conceptual maps “2x2” Matrix Conceptual Cross Dimension 1 Dimension 3 1 High 1 6 3 Low 6 9 Low 3 8 Dimension 4 8 9 High Dimension 2 Typical Process • Conceptual Maps come in various shapes. The mother of all conceptual is the “2 x 2” Matrix, where various objects are plotted in 4 boxes : dimensions 1 & 2 with sub-sets “low” and “high” • A Conceptual Cross provides another way to think about how objects can be classified against 2 other dimensions Tricks & Tips • The 2x2 Matrix is the most useful consulting tool ever … • The Conceptual Cross is marginally less helpful. It can come handy when you find that the objects you have plotted in a matrix all fall on the diagonal line : a 45° rotation of Matrix dimensions gives you a Cross map Training Modules Customer-I 25 Forces at Work Tools and Techniques Key Question What are the forces at work ? Tool Description The Forces at Work visual is simple version of Porter’s model . It highlights complexity rather than simplify / organise it in the way Porter and the SWOT box do. Typical Output Format Convergence in national tastes across Europe Clothing manufacturing shifting production overseas Clothing manufacturers shifting production from West to East and South Europe Customers demanding shorter lead times Improvements in the speed and cost of logistics across Europe Threat of cheap imports from Asia Growth of international customers, e.g. Nike & Benetton Typical Process • Self-explanatory Price convergence between markets driven by the Euro Shortening product life cycles in fashion Tricks & Tips • Do it either at the beginning of a case - or at the end to illustrate complexity of forces at work • During case work, try and organize these forces either in Porter’s 5 Forces model, or in SWOT box Training Modules N/A 26 Crocodile Chart Tools and Techniques Key Question Can I come up with creative data displays of my own too ? Tool Description Crocodile Charts are a technique that helps you display in one sole slide how the issue you are studying narrows down to your specific area of focus. It requires an Excel table and the Bubble function in the Chart Menu Typical Output Format Crocodile chart, Oil reserves, 1995 100% 90% Sea 80% North 70% 60% 50% Land UK 40% South 30% Europe 20% 10% 0% Global Typical Process • Create Excel table with all the data required • Plot 4 bars Continental National Tricks & Tips • Tip : it is easier to add lines across all bars and delete unnecessary one upon finalizing the chart than the other way round • Add connecting lines Training Modules N/A Regional 27 Parfait Tools and Techniques Key Question What is the easiest way to display market growth ? Tool Description A Parfait is a visually simple tool that helps you display jointly both the relative size of market segments and their relative growth. It requires an Excel table and the Area function in the Chart Menu Typical Output Format UK Clothing Market 1994-98 3 000 Annual Growth Market size (1998, £m) 2 500 3% Childrenswear 2 000 10% Sportswear 1 500 Menswear 2% Womenswear 2% 1 000 500 1994 1995 Typical Process • Create Excel table with all the data required 1996 1998 Tricks & Tips • Do not forget to add growth data to the right of the chart • Plot Training Modules N/A 1997 28 Table of Contents Tools and Techniques Key Question Tool Description Typical Output Format 3. Analysis Techniques Typical Process Tricks & Tips Training Modules 29 Logic Tree Tools and Techniques Key Question How does one organise the research ? Tool Description One half of Structured Thinking, the Logic Tree turns the initial client brief into a set of discrete questions. Each Logic Tree has a “twin” in the shape of the Research Tree. Once the key questions have been established it is usually clear which research method is the most appropriate Typical Output Format Logic Tree Research Tree I gather data to inform the applicability of each option I can find a solution to my sockless state I can find another sock in the flat I can trace the other sock I can trace another pair I can get an entirely new pair I can buy a new pair in time I can have one sent I can compensate for what I don’t have I can alter clothing to hide sockless ness I can justify sockless ness Typical Process • Write “top of tree” as a positive statement answering the client question • Create sub-branches by splitting the top of the tree into its natural components (writing a good Logic Tree is an art and a technique that one acquires with experience) • The sub-branches should obey the MECE method (Mutually Exclusive Completely Exhaustive), i.e.all the sub-branches taken together must exhaustively support the branch above, and each subbranch must deal with something different from the other sub-branches • The MECE methods implies that - if one of the sub-branches is false then the top of the tree must be false - if all the sub-branches are true then the top of the tree must be true Research inside the flat Check my room (under the bed, other drawers) Inquire about socklessness Ask Check Check flatmates there are who is Check sock coming laundry shops Call to room on the get them way to bring one Check with partner that socks are needed Ask for a good joke Think of how to turn it into a statement Tricks & Tips • A positive statement is more difficult than a negative statement, and thus gives client more confidence on strength of our answer • Tip : some first level “split” of the logic tree occur rather regularly. Typical first level branches are : - Sales, Margins and Costs - Customers, Competitors and Cost • Tip : do the research tree only once finished with logic tree (on 80:20 basis). Indeed some research branches can address several branch of the logic tree at once Training Modules N/A Research outside the flat 30 Process Maps Tools and Techniques Key Question What are the key steps ? Tool Description Process Maps are a technique that helps you group a set of research and/or action points into broad sequential steps Typical Output Format Bidding, Negotiation & Closing Deal Origination • • Target identification Assessment of potential postdeal synergies • • • Typical Process • Self-explanatory Market Study / strategic due diligence External validation Ammunition for negotiations ‘Black holes’ check Resolve competition and regulatory issues Valuation analysis • • Strategy development Post-acquisition disputes • • • Business plan preparation Market study for potential prospectus ‘Outside in’ view for potential buyers’ Synergy valuation for negotiations Tricks & Tips • Try to aim for 4 to 7 steps to keep the process map useful Training Modules N/A Exit (Trade Sale or Flotation) Owning 31 Sanity Checks Tools and Techniques Key Question Does this number make sense ? Tool Description Sanity Checks are basic techniques that help you assess the viability of a data point obtained through desk research or one-off interviews. This do not require anything else than careful consideration ... Typical Output Format Main data sanity checks Confidence Ranging Narrowing a variety of N° from different sources down to a range within which you are fairly confident the true answer is to be found (“confidence interval”) Feel Right Test Connecting data obtained on esoteric issues to more easily understandable dimensions and assessing credibility of implication Typical Process • See above & Generic Research Impact Criticality Test Materiality Test Putting in perspective the differences between the various estimates obtained typically by expressing biggest delta as % of average value Establish whether the different estimates obtained lead to the same outcome with regard to the question you are really addressing Body Doubling Choosing one unique data point as the estimate you will go with pending further information Tricks & Tips • Most important test is materiality test, i.e. how different are the various estimates obtained ? • Tip : choose a different color - red for examples - for the body doubles in an Excel worksheet Training Modules Generic Research 32 Top - Down Estimation Tools and Techniques Key Question How can I estimate a sub-set ? Tool Description The Top-Down estimation is a method that consists in shaving off parts of something you know (eg. market size) until you are left with the rump (eg. a segment size) that you were trying to estimate in the first place Typical Output Format Own-label, non-ready meals, frozen fish market top down estimate,1998 Market value (£m, RSP, 1998) 2 000 1 800 Food service 1 600 Canned 1 400 1 200 Fresh 1 000 800 Ready Meals Chilled 600 Branded Retail 400 Coated Frozen 200 Natural 0 Total Fish Market Share of Retail Share of nonReady Meals Share of Frozen Typical Process Own Label Share of Own Label Our Market Tricks & Tips • Gather all the available data on the market you try to estimate as well as data on broader market sets • The outcome of a top-down estimation is visually complex to illustrate • Make a list of the “cuts” for which you have data (eg. you have data by channel and by products but not by channel & product) • The best method is to create a set of 100% vertical bars and one by one turn to “no border & no area” the boxes that you don’t want to see appearing • Split the starting object into sub-set by applying the cut for which you have least data (eg. you know market share of products in retail but not in wholesale, thus share by channel before you share by product) • Think Rubik’s cube: you will probably have to try 2 or 3 different sequencing of the cuts before you arrive at a satisfactory outcome Training Modules Generic Research 33 One-Off Interviews Tools and Techniques Key Question What are the main issues with one-off interviews ? Tool Description Check-list for One-Off Interviews. Use framework below before proceeding with interviews Typical Output Format One-off Interviews Check-list Preparation Anticipation of Answers Contact & Persuasion • Be clear exactly • Define your • Be polite, • which questions objectives for especially to need to be the meeting up secretaries answered front • • Be rigorous in • Choose the • Ensure you using secretaries appropriate come out with where possible method the specific answers you • Write a • • Contact the require professional but correct people deferential fax Execution Prioritise questions Be prepared for obstructive remarks from interviewees Interpretation of Results • Be flexible but focused on the answer Write clear and comprehensive meeting notes Wrapping Up • Be prompt in delivering high quality feedback • Remember who has paid the bill! • Do not lie !! Typical Process • See above & Generic Research module Tricks & Tips • Go through the check-list again & again ! • Tip : always keep in mind the ANSWERS you are expecting and particularly the different SO WHAT that different answers will point to Training Modules Generic Research 34 Interview Programmes Tools and Techniques Key Question What are the main issues with interview programmes ? Tool Description Check-list for Interview Programmes. Use framework below before proceeding with interviews Typical Output Format Interview Programme Check-List Preparation • Choose the appropriate method - on the phone - in the street - mix • Select the best sample - suitable proportion of market - hit rate Anticipation of Answers • Create a questionnaire which is focused on testing the hypothesis - correct questions - questions asked in the correct way Contact & Persuasion • Ensure interviewers are fully briefed Execution • Ensure process is managed effectively • Set-up database • Pilot and maintain it questionnaire throughout and re-draft ineffective • Temp performance questions monitored and data inputed as rapidly as possible Typical Process • See above & Customer-I module Interpretation of Results • Only appropriate analysis is carried out (80 : 20) Wrapping Up • Keep paper copies of questionnaires at hand ! Tricks & Tips • Go through the check-list again & again ! • Tip : always keep in mind the ANSWERS you are expecting and particularly the different SO WHAT that different answers will point to Training Modules Customer-I 35 Focus Groups Tools and Techniques Key Question What are the main issues with organising focus groups ? Tool Description Check-list for Focus Group. Use framework below before proceeding with organising groups Typical Output Format • Organising the day • Managing the debate Focussing debate Logistics Getting the right people • Venue and travel arrangements • Agreeing the plan with the client • Maintaining records • What to take • (equipment, props, • etc...) • Selecting candidates • Invitations • Hit rate • Incentives Typical Process • See Tricks & Tips Tricks & Tips • If possible, pre-select to ensure representative cross section by asking key questions on the phone • Confirm details in writing (by fax for speed) • Invite up to double the candidates you want unless they are motivated to come - offer cash/other incentive as appropriate as sanctioned by the project manager Think through the timing • Draft issues for debate of key questions beforehand • Stick to the agenda • Use flip charts to document contributions • Keep travel to a minimum • Ensure venue is appropriately comfortable • Keep database as for interview programmes • Be prepared! Training Modules Customer-I 36 Clustering Tools and Techniques Key Question How can I group people by preferences ? Tool Description Clusturing is a complex technique that helps you group object (eg customers) according to their similarity of preference between a set of dimensions (eg customer purchasing criteria). It requires an Excel spreadsheet and a conjoint analysis software, such as SPSS Typical Output Format Cluster analysis, Storage product industry, 1998 Speed of service A lot Cluster Y Average Cluster Little X Average Z Average A lot All-round support Cluster A lot Exclusivity of operations Typical Process • Create Excel table with detail of customer interview programme : score given to each criteria by each customer (one customer per row, one criteria per column) • Import dataset into conjoint analysis software (SPSS or other) • Run Classify \ Cluster function in Statistics menu of conjoint analysis software • Write down N° of rows that fall in each cluster • Go back to Excel spreadsheet, create Cluster N° column to tag each row according to relevant cluster • Calculate average criteria score by cluster Tricks & Tips • Spend 3 or 4 hours reading the conjoint analysis software manual, and practicing on fictitious dataset ! • A Cluster analysis will start by giving you X clusters for your X customers (fair enough each one is different …). It will then start grouping the two customers with the most similar preferences into a single cluster, leaving you with X-1 clusters, etc, until all is one big cluster. The real N° of clusters in the population is usually obtained by trial and error, thus … • Tip : Never erase the content of a given Cluster N° column when tagging rows in Excel … a discarded solution usually turns out to be the correct one in the end ! Training Modules Customer-I & II 37 Factorial Analysis Tools and Techniques Key Question How can I group people’s preferences in broader sets ? Tool Description Factorial Analysis is a complex technique that helps you group a large number of dimensions of choice (eg 14 customer purchasing criteria) into the relevant, fewer factors that underpin clusters’ preferences. It requires an Excel spreadsheet and a conjoint analysis software, such as SPSS Typical Output Format Factorial analysis, Storage product industry, 1998 Key Purchasing Criteria •1. •2. •3. •4. •5. •6. •7. •8. •9. •10. •11. •12. •13. •14. Speedy quotations turnaround time Distributor brand Choice of payment terms Technical support & design assistance Speedy & reliable delivery Literature with distributor brand/name No competing direct sales force Complete territorial exclusivity Choice of pricing structures Full technical & design digest Free contract management facility Choice of stock holding policy Free & regular training programmes Dedicated account manager Typical Process • Create Excel table with detail of customer interview programme : score given to each criteria by each customer (one customer per row, one criteria per column) • Import dataset into conjoint analysis software (SPSS or other) • Run Data Reduction \Factor function in Statistics menu of conjoint analysis software • Check resulting plot, and iterate if need be Factors Factor 1 Speed of service Factor 3 All-round support Factor 2 Exclusivity of operations Factor 1 = KPC 1 & 5 Factor 2 = KPC 2, 7 & 8 Factor 3 = KPC 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 & 14 Tricks & Tips • Spend 3 or 4 hours reading the conjoint analysis software manual, and practicing on fictitious dataset ! • A good dataset will always give you a reduction of your X criteria into X/3 or X/4 factors. Trying to fathom what these factors represent can be a notoriously difficult exercise. Ask for help • Tip : it is usually easier to understand a factor after having carried out a Cluster analysis (see previous page) Training Modules Customer-I 38 Table of Contents Tools and Techniques Key Question Tool Description Typical Output Format 4. Sources Typical Process Tricks & Tips Training Modules 39 Desk Sources Tools and Techniques Key Question Where can I find secondary data ? Tool Description Check-list for Desk Sources. Use framework below and create your own portfolio of regular & favourite sources Typical Output Format Desk research avenues of enquiry Eg. Search CD-ROM or on-line databases Search the Net Search AABC knowledge base Search business sources Procure documents - Profound - Datastar - Reuters - Worldscope - etc - FT.com - search engines - etc - Global Best Practices database - etc - trade publications - government statistics - etc - annual reports - brokers reports - market reports - etc Pure electronic Typical Process • Spend 10 minutes laying out the nature and type of the data you are after • Spend 10 minutes writing down the sources where you are likely to encounter each required data • Start chasing ! Mix Go to various libraries - City business library - MBS library - etc Pure paper Tricks & Tips • Tip : when procuring documents there is always a trade-off between immediacy of availability and cost … a well planned research is one that leaves more $ in the case-team dinner pot ! • Tip2 : it is uncanny how the document you need on D day is the one you thew away on day D-1. Never throw, always file away. • Tip3 : other team members will randomly access your file. Do develop a filing system that is easily understandable by all ... Training Modules Generic Research 40 Usual AABC Sources (1) Tools and Techniques Key Question Tool Description News Research Typical Output Format Reuters Business Briefing News articles, regulatory news announcements (e.g. latest interims, directors shareholdings etc) Competitor listings Descriptions of business Disclosure tearsheets (one page share performance and financial summary) Reuters industry briefings (useful snapshot) (£25 per hour) FT Profile Similar to Reuters but refined searching method (words in the first paragraph of an article, Typical Process within one sentence / paragraph and using truncation more FT articles Mintel (market research reports) (4p or more for every line viewed including headlines) Dow Jones Interactive Similar to FT but US focus (Approx £2 per article) Research Bank CD (Investext) Company and industry reports, merger info etc (FREE unless printing, then $9 per page) Lexis Nexis General business news and legal information database, e.g. EC directives, particular cases etc. ($1-4 per article) I-Plus Direct On-line version of Research Bank CD No free viewing, but can be useful for text searching (reports available one weeks after published date) Datastar + Dialog Host system for databases. Particularly strong on medical, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, intellectual property and patents. (European bias for Datastar, US for Dialog) (Charge per article) Profound Market research reports and briefing reports (UK, USA, Japan, France & Germany) (£200+ per report, can do individual sections for £2) Consumers association on the web Search back copies of “which” (FREE) Tricks & Tips Anbar Marketsearch online Management and academic journals Global sources of published market (£6 per article – next day delivery) research and market reports (FREE) Oxford Economic Forecasting on the web WARC Global forecast for industries, World Advertising Research Centre consumer prices etc. Source of advertising information (FREE) including “Admap” – main advertising journal not avail UMI- Proquest elsewhere Management and academic journals (FREE) (can download info) (Approx. $4 per article) Training Modules 41 Usual AABC Sources (2) Tools and Techniques Key Question Tool Description Financial Information Information Alliances Typical Output Format One Source Web & CD Reports or custom tables on historical financials (weblinks – news stories) Web = UK companies + current year CD = Global + last 10 years (FREE) Worldscope + Amadeus Condensed financial information on quoted companies worldwide. Amadeus = Europe (including non listed, but have to be of certain size) (FREE) ICC Juniper 100% coverage of UK companies including info on dissolved companies (£9 for annual reports and accounts on private co.s) Hoovers Typical Process US company profiles, including history, competitors, management structure – useful for large US private companies (Reuters or FREE on web) Dun & Bradstreet Direct Access World-wide company reports including credit score. Useful for US companies that are not listed or small UK companies (£20-70 per report) Disclosure - Global Access Annual reports, etc of almost all listed companies globally (£22 annual report) Kompass On-line Identifying companies within a particular industry worldwide (£1.15 per minute + 15 – 75p per article) All of the below offer us research and information resources/ book loans , research helpline and library access • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Chartered Institute of Marketing Chartered Institute of Accountants Electricity Council Institute of Management Industrial Society IPD - Institute of personnel development. London Business School Library Free access to all staff Institute of Logistics Cranfield Material Handling Centre (Logistics issues) Anglo American Chamber London Chamber of Commerce Institute of Directors Tricks & Tips Financial Times Business Information Services Disclosure First Contact British Library Document Supply Centre. Proposed / On Trial • • • • • • • • • Xls. – Gateway to Information providers Euromonitor – Global Marketing data & statistics on- line Datamonitor Statistics extracts FT journals online – Media/ Energy Primark Extel Company Analysis Analysis – telecoms information Lafferty online – Direct EIU – direct Mintel Market Research Training Modules 42