THE MULTIDIMENSIONAL MEASUREMENT OF POVERTY Conceptual Underpinnings of Individual, Family and Spatial Measurements of Poverty and Deprivation Trutz Haase Presentation at the IRCHSS Summer School on Poverty Measurement, UCC, Cork, June 2012 FORMAT OF PRESENTATION Measuring Poverty and Social Inclusion at the Level of Individuals or Households Measuring Child and Family Well-being Deprivation and its Spatial Articulation Measuring Poverty and Social Inclusion at the Level of Individuals or Households POVERTY - A MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONCEPT While poverty is widely accepted to be an inherently multi-dimensional concept, it has proved difficult to develop measures that adequately capture this multidimensionality account for the “ecological” and multilevel context of well-being facilitate comparisons over time This presentation explores the role of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) as a technique for constructing improved measurements of poverty, child and family wellbeing and spatial deprivation. DEFINING POVERTY Townsend - the conceptual bedrock for the European concept of poverty “People are in poverty when “their resources are so seriously below those commanded by the average individual or family that they are, in effect, excluded from ordinary living patterns, customs and activities.” (Townsend, P., 1979) Relative Poverty “People are living in poverty if their income and resources (material, cultural and social) are so inadequate as to preclude them from having a standard of living which is regarded as acceptable by Irish society generally.” (Government of Ireland, NAPS, 1997, reflecting the definition adopted in the mid-1980s by the European Council) FROM AT-RISK-OF-POVERTY TO MATERIAL DEPRIVATION The purpose of EU deprivation indicators is to capture a situation of exclusion from a minimum acceptable way of life due to a lack of resources. (EU Council of Ministers, 1985) Originally, this focused solely on the relative at-risk-of-poverty rate, essentially a unidimensional measure related to income, which takes as its sole reference point the individual nation state. In an attempt to develop a wider European perspective on the measurement and interpretation of poverty, this has been accompanied in recent years by measures of “material deprivation”, which assess relative poverty in terms of the affordability of a basket of consumption items, defined in a unified manner across EU Member States. This partially reflects a shift in focus from social cohesion within each country to social cohesion within the enlarged community. MATERIAL DEPRIVATION (EU-SILC) Economic strain, i.e. the Enforced lack of household cannot afford: durables, i.e. the household cannot afford (but would like to): Housing, i.e. the households dwelling suffers from: to face unexpected expenses a washing machine leaking roof or damp walls/floors/ foundations or rotten window frames one-week annual holiday away from home a colour TV lack of light to pay arrears (mortgage or a telephone rent, utility bills or hire purchase instalments) no bath or shower a meal with meat, chicken or fish every second day a computer no indoor flushing toilet for the sole use of the household to keep home adequately warm a car lack of space, as measured by the number of rooms available for each household member in the dwelling SERIOUS QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE MATERIAL DEPRIVATION INDICATORS reliability: Because the cost of most of these items varies dramatically, it is difficult to interpret individual responses. This is compounded by the fact that the material deprivation index does not lend itself to longitudinal analysis, as the cost of individual items (and their diffusion within the population) varies considerably over time. policy relevance: The poor correlation (r=0.3) between the at-risk-of-poverty rates and material deprivation across the EU countries generates confusion: e.g. the risk of poverty is much lower in a number of former Eastern European countries, but so is the median income, which correlates highly (r=0.83) with material deprivation. aggregation into a household deprivation score: The simple additive approach based on a 0/1 scoring assigns equal value to each item, effectively giving the same importance to not affording a PC to not having an indoor toilet. (Gilbert, N., 2011) QUESTIONS ALSO REMAIN AS TO WHAT CONSTITUTES A TRULY MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONCEPT OF POVERTY Some argue that the shift from the relative at-risk-of-poverty rate to the concept of material deprivation represents at least a partial move from a simple to a more complex concept of poverty (Fahey, 2010). Others questions the extent to which material deprivation provides a more valid, reliable and transparent depiction of poverty than a direct measure of income (Gilbert, 2011). Researchers have sought to broaden the financial measures to include wealth, imputed rent and the psychological consequences of financial strain. There is a widespread realisation that comprehensive measurement of social exclusion must include many other dimensions. Few studies have managed to successfully operationalise the measurement of these additional dimensions when developing poverty indices. EU COMMONLY AGREED PRIMARY SOCIAL INCLUSION INDICATORS Name Description Income Poverty P1) 60% median income at-risk-of-poverty rate P2) persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate P3) relative median poverty risk gap Unemployment and Joblessness P4) long-term unemployment rate P5) population living in jobless households Low Educational Qualifications P6) early school leavers not in education or training Employment Situation of Immigrants P7) employment gap of immigrants Material Deprivation P8) population living in materially deprived households Housing P9) indicator(s) to be developed Access to Healthcare P10) self-reported unmet need for medical care Child Well-being P11) indicator(s) to be developed THE CONVENTIONAL APPROACH TO ANALYSING DIMENSIONALITY: EXPLORATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS (EFA) Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) reduces variables to a smaller number of underlying Dimensions or Factors V1 F1 V2 V3 V4 V5 F2 V6 EFA is an exploratory technique (i.e. data-driven) all variables load on all factors the structure matrix is determined by the nature of the variables Principal Components Analysis (a commonly-used EFA technique) does not account for measurement error (v1-v6 are assumed to be perfect indicators) EFA can not be used to compare outcomes over time THE DIMENSIONALITY OF MATERIAL DEPRIVATION (EU-SILC) Using EFA, Nolan (2010) identifies three dimensions in the EU-SILC indicators: Consumption deprivation – items relating to food, heat, a holiday, a car or a PC, and avoiding arrears on rent or utilities. Household facilities – such as bath or shower and indoor toilet, a telephone, a colour TV and a washing machine. Neighbourhood environment - noise, pollution, crime and violence. But note, that this structure already differs from that postulated. A SUPERIOR APPROACH: CONFIRMATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS (CFA) variables are conceptualised as the (imperfect) manifestations of underlying, latent concepts d1 V1 d2 V2 d3 V3 d4 V4 d5 V5 d6 V6 L1 L2 CFA requires a strong theoretical justification before the model is specified the researcher decides which of the observed variables are to be associated with which of the latent variables variables are assumed to only partially reflect the latent variable CFA model (with factorial invariance) allows for the comparison of outcomes over time CFA facilitates the objective evaluation of model “fit” using statistical tests and indices APPLYING CFA TO THE BRITISH HOUSEHOLD PANEL STUDY (BHPS) Walker, R., Tomlinson, M, Williams, G. Multi-dimensional Measurement of Poverty and Well-being: A UK Case-Study A MULTIDIMENSIONAL MODEL OF POVERTY (BHPS 1991-2003) Walker, R., Tomlinson, M, Williams, G. Multi-dimensional Measurement of Poverty and Well-being: A UK Case-Study CONVENTIONAL AND SEM-BASED POVERTY MEASURES IN COMPARISON The relative income measures show a pattern of stable or slightly increasing poverty during the John Major period 1992–97 and then a decline when New Labour took office from 1997 onwards while the absolute income measure, with the poverty threshold held constant in real terms, shows a continuous decline. The analogous PI-based measures, on the other hand, both show steady declines throughout the whole period, which is to be expected since a portion of the index is designed to capture aspects of poverty theorised to be more stable and less sensitive to short-term fluctuations in the national economic situation. Measuring Child and Family Well-being MEASURING CHILD AND FAMILY WELLBEING GROWING UP IN IRELAND Bronfenbrenner’s Ecological Perspective on Child Development TAKING THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK SERIOUSLY There is a need to take the theoretical framework seriously in the study design The nested structure of potential influences on child well-being needs to find explicit expression This requires latent variable modelling and testing influences along the direct and indirect pathways postulated by the theoretical framework Classical statistical models, such as ANOVA and multiple regression, can only test the influence of a set of risk and protective factors on a single outcome variable and do not account for mediated effects Structural Equation Modelling offers a feasible solution to this problem AN ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF CHILD WELL-BEING Measurement Model for SCG Well-being SCG Well-being PCG Well-being Child Well-being Measurement Model for Child Well-being Risk and Protective Factors Risk and Protective Factors Measurement Model for PCG Well-being RISK AND PROTECTIVE FACTORS Financial Difficulties Non-Irish Ethnicity Local Problem Scale SCG Well-being Low Social Class Local Services Scale Equivalised Household Income Decile Haase-Pratschke Deprivation Score ESRI Basic Deprivation PCG Well-being Health Status (Child) Low Education (PCG) Life Events (Child) Gender (Child) Health Status (PCG) Child Well-being Age (PCG) Pratschke, J., Haase, T., McKeown, K. 2011 Well-being and the family system: A structural equation model of relational and contextual influences. GUI Conference, December. d P3_SCG Parenting SCG Dyadic PCG Depression PCG P2_SCG Parenting PCG d d Depression SCG Dyadic SCG d d Financial difficulties SCG wellbeing Local services Non-Irish ethnicity Low social class HaasePratschke Life Events of child ESRI Deprivation Low educ. of PCG Child wellbeing Gender of child Health of PCG Child Difficulties Age of PCG Scholastic Achievement T_EVAL d D_MATH PH_INT d D_READ PH_POP d PH_APP d PH_HAP HYP_P d SelfConcept REL_P CON_P EMO_P d HH income PCG wellbeing Health of Child Note 2: all covariances between independent variables omitted from figure d d d Local problems Note 1: covariances between disturbance terms for Child Well-being and Parenting (PCG and SCG) not included in figure. d DSAT_S d DCOH_S d DCON_S d P1_SCG P3_PCG d DSAT_P P2_PCG d DCOH_P d DCON_P d d P1_PCG A STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODEL OF CHILD AND FAMILY WELL-BEING d INFLUENCES ON CHILD AND FAMILY WELL-BEING Goodness of Fit: N: CFI: RMSEA: All effects significant at p < .05 4,881 .951 .023 Financial Difficulties - . 08 - . 10 Local Problem Scale SCG Well-being Non-Irish Ethnicity - . 10 Low Social Class R²=.04 - . 06 Local Services Scale Equivalised Household Income Decile Haase-Pratschke Deprivation Score - . 15 ESRI Basic Deprivation - . 11 PCG Well-being . 09 R²=.17 Health Status (Child) - . 10 - . 06 - . 11 . 41 . 04 - . 10 Life Events (Child) Gender (Child) . 08 - . 07 - . 04 . 07 - . 28 Child Well-being R²=.31 Low Education (PCG) Health Status (PCG) - . 04 . 12 Age (PCG) Pratschke, J., Haase, T., McKeown, K. 2011 Well-being and the family system: A structural equation model of relational and contextual influences. GUI Conference, December. KEY FINDINGS ON THE DETERMINANTS OF CHILD WELL-BEING 1. The analysis confirms the importance of the mother’s well-being as a mediating factor on the child. A one unit improvement in the mother’s well-being is associated with a 0.4 unit direct improvement in child well-being. 2. In stark contrast, the direct effect of the father’s well-being on the child (.04) is almost negligible once we control for other factors. 3. A striking result is the strongly mediated effect of many contextual influences, in harmony with the ecological model of child well-being. 4. With the exception of the mother’s health and the Haase-Pratschke Deprivation Index, which have a significant direct effect on child well-being, all other socio-economic factors, including financial variables and local area problems, have a distal effect on child well-being that is mediated by the mother’s well-being. REFLECTION ON METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN THE MEASUREMENT OF CHILD WELL-BEING 1. The conceptualisation of well-being as a higher-order latent concept reveals itself to be a powerful and well-supported hypothesis. 2. The assumption that the well-being of children cannot be understood without simultaneously analysing the well-being of their parents is reinforced. 3. All of the key influences identified in this analysis are in line with our previous research on child and family well-being using independent data – including the finding that a unit change in maternal well-being is associated with almost half a unit change in child wellbeing. 4. Parents act as a buffer between economic risk factors and child well-being. 5. Socio-economic risks do influence parental well-being, and thus have a mediated effect on children. Deprivation and its Spatial Articulation RECONSIDERING THE DEFINITION OF POVERTY AND DEPRIVATION Relative Poverty “People are living in poverty if their income and resources (material, cultural and social) are so inadequate as to preclude them from having a standard of living which is regarded as acceptable by Irish society generally.” (Government of Ireland, NAPS, 1997) Relative Deprivation “The fundamental implication of the term deprivation is of an absence – of essential or desirable attributes, possessions and opportunities which are considered no more than the minimum by that society.” (Coombes et al., DoE – UK, 1995) THE IMPORTANCE OF THE CONCEPT OF OPPORTUNITY DEPRIVATION Attributes can be measured using Census or administrative data on the individual (e.g. ethnicity, education, social class etc.) Possessions can also be measured through individual-level Census or administrative data (e.g. income, wealth, consumption etc.) However, Opportunities cannot be measured in the individual. Opportunities reflect interactions, and require specific measures Any measure of poverty or deprivation that rests on individual-level data alone will inevitably be biased towards urban forms of deprivation A HYPOTHESIS OF THE UNDERLYING DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE Demographic Decline (predominantly rural) population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population) Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas) social class composition, education, housing quality Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban) unemployment, lone parents, low skills base THE BASIC MODEL OF AFFLUENCE AND DEPRIVATION d1 Age Dependency Rate d2 Population Change d3 Primary Education only d4 Third Level Education d5 Professional Classes d6 Persons per Room d7 Lone Parents d8 Semi- and Unskilled Classes d9 Male Unemployment Rate d10 Female Unemployment Rate Demographic Growth Social Class Composition Labour Market Situation DYNAMIC PATH DIAGRAM FOR IRISH DEPRIVATION MEASURES, 1991 - 2006 Initial Growth Rapid Growth Slow-Down R2= .80 Demographic Growth 91 0.20 0.15 R2= .85 R2= .83 Demographic Growth 96 0.80 7 7 4 5 Demographic Growth 02 1.19 0.08 -0.51 8 Demographic Growth 06 0.93 -0.16 -0.03 8 0.86 R2= .95 R2= .90 0.04 Social Class Composition 91 0.28 0.30 Social Class Composition 96 0.66 -0.04 Social Class Composition 02 0.81 0.31 -0.16 Labour Market Situation 91 0.97 -0.02 R2= .94 9 9 0.12 Labour Market Situation 96 Social Class Composition 06 0.83 0.01 6 0.56 0.23 R2= .89 -0.33 1.11 -0.06 0.27 Labour Market Situation 02 R2= .92 Haase, T. & Pratschke, J. 2008 The New Measures of Deprivation in the Republic of Ireland. Dublin: ADM. 1.02 Labour Market Situation 06 R2= .94 CHANGE IN ABSOLUTE DEPRIVATION SCORES, 1991-2006 Number of EDs 1200 1000 1991 1996 800 2002 2006 600 400 200 0 -42.5 -37.5 -32.5 -27.5 -22.5 -17.5 -12.5 -7.5 -2.5 2.5 7.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 27.5 32.5 37.5 42.5 The figure shows the unprecedented growth in Ireland over the 1991 to 2006 period, with greatest changes occurring between 1996 and 2002. CHANGE IN RELATIVE DEPRIVATION SCORES, 1991-2006 Number of EDs 1000 1991 800 1996 2002 600 2006 400 200 0 ext r emel y ver y di sadvant aged di sadvant ageddi sadvant aged mar gi nal l y mar gi nal l y bel ow aver age above aver age af f l uent ver y af f l uent ext r emel y af f l uent The figure shows the final distribution of Relative Deprivation Scores, after controlling for the underlying trend and standardising its spread. The scores thus look at deprivation at each point in time; i.e. as it might be perceived in relative terms. ABSOLUTE AFFLUENCE AND DEPRIVATION 1991 - 2006 1991 1996 2002 2006 Absolute Index Scores, 1991-2006 Haase & Pratschke 2008 30 to 50 20 to 30 10 to 20 0 to 10 -10 to 0 -20 to -10 -30 to -20 -50 to -30 COMPARISON OF ABSOLUTE DEPRIVATION SCORES, 1991-2006 Shows how affluence has grown throughout the whole country. Greatest change between 1996 and 2002. Shows how affluence has grown in concentric rings around the main urban centres, effectively demarcating the urban commuter belts. Shows that, with the exception of Dublin Inner City, cities in general have not improved in their affluence as much as the rest of the country. RELATIVE AFFLUENCE AND DEPRIVATION 1991 - 2006 1991 1996 2002 2006 Relative Index Scores, 1991-2006 Haase & Pratschke 2008 very affluent affluent marginally above average marginally below average disadvantaged very disadvantaged extremely disadvantaged COMPARISON OF RELATIVE DEPRIVATION SCORES, 1991-2006 Apart from Dublin Inner City, where there is evidence of substantial gentrification, there are only small differences in Relative Deprivation Scores between 1991 and 2006. STRENGTHS OF CFA-BASED DEPRIVATION INDICES true multidimensionality, based on theoretical considerations no double-counting rational approach to the selection/construction of indicators statistical tests and alternative fit indices to test model adequacy identical structure matrix can be imposed across multiple waves identical measurement scale can be obtained across multiple waves true distances to means are maintained (i.e. measurement, not ranking) distinguishes between absolute and relative deprivation allows for true inter-temporal comparisons WHAT ARE THE ATTRIBUTES OF A SATISFACTORY MEASURE OF POVERTY OR DEPRIVATION? 1. facilitates the comprehension of multiple indicators. 2. provides a basis for the effective targeting of the most disadvantaged individuals, families or areas. 3. improves our understanding of the pathways through which poverty and well-being are mediated. 4. provides a means by which to compare relative need, assess change over time, and facilitate monitoring and evaluation. 5. enjoys broad support amongst key stakeholders, including government departments, state agencies and community representatives. www.trutzhaase.eu