Market Mix Modelling Estimate the effectiveness of investment in media Agenda • Business application of Marketing Mix modelling • A case study • Strengths and weaknesses • Brief introduction to more advanced approaches: pooled regressions and structural equations Making BP’s media dollars work harder • “Mindshare helped BP to make the most of their media investments across the many states of the USA.” • “BP engaged Mindshare to develop enhanced media investment strategies to maximise sales and boost revenue performance.” • “Drivers of performance were quantified (e.g. media, promotions, distribution, competitor effects) in seven USA states, over three years” • “Return on investment figures were calculated - both short and long term - for 40 campaigns.” Marketing Mix modelling • Statistical methods applied to measure the impact of media investments, promotional activities and price tactics on sales or brand awareness • Used to assist and implement a marketing strategy by measuring: – Effectiveness: contribution of marketing activities to sales – Efficiency: short term and long term Return-OnInvestment of marketing spend – Price elasticity – Impact of competitors MMM How does it work? • A statistical model is estimated on historical data with sales as a dependent variable and list of explanatory variables as marketing activities, price, seasonality and macro factors • The simplest and broadly used model is linear regression: Salest 1 var1t 2 var2t ... t • The output of the model is then used to carry out further analysis like media effectiveness, ROI and price elasticity and to simulate what-if scenarios Factors that could drive sales Advertising TV Radio Print Outdoor Internet Promotions Sponsorships Events Price Adv quality Distribution Merchandising Competition Seasonality Weather Economic Demographic Industry data Salest 1 var 2 var ... t 1 t Sales 2 t MMM project process Set out objectives Data preparation -Define scope -Discuss data availability -Design data-warehouse •Collect data •Validate, harmonize and consolidate data •Present exploratory analysis to client Presentation Model development •Interpretation of results •Learning and recommendations •Estimation •Diagnostics •Calculate ROIs, Price elasticity and response curves Case study • An energy company SPetrol wants to evaluate the advertising investments of its retail business in the US from 2001 until 2004. • Client’s questions: • How much have we made through advertising? • What is the return on investments of our media activities? • Which marketing drivers have had the greatest effect? • What’s the influence of price on our sales? • Are we optimally allocating our budget across products ? Target variable Advertising data • The performance of TV and radio advertising is expressed in terms of Gross Rating Points (GRPs) . A rating point is a percentage of the potential audience and GRPs measure the total of all rating points during and advertising campaign. – GRPs (%) = Reach * Frequency – Example: Let’s assume a commercial is broadcasted two times on TV 1st time on air 2st time on air 25% of target televisions are tuned in 32% of target televisions are tuned in GRPs 57% Advertising data • Spetrol has deployed 5 TV campaigns over the sample with a total expenditure of 300 million $ • Each campaign lasted from 4 to 8 weeks • Is there any relationship between sales and TV advertising? Carry over effect of TV Carry over effect of TV • The exposure to TV advertising builds awareness, resulting in sales. • ADStock allows the inclusion of lagged and non linear effects ADStockt ( ) GRPt ADStockt 1 0 1 • Alpha is estimated iteratively using least squares. The estimate is then validated by media planners Advertising data 300 M TV Spend 164 M Radio 160 M Outdoor Below the line promotions • It may include – sponsorship – product placement – sales promotion – merchandising – trade shows • Usually represented by dummies (variables equal to 1 when a promotion takes place and 0 otherwise) Below the line promotions Sponsorship World Rally Championship Sale promotion Sale promotion 5% Discountt Price Seasonality August seasonal dummy 5% Discountt Peaks every year in August Sale promotion Exploratory analysis Scatter plot 32 Unit root test Histogram and desc stats Series: SALES Sample 1 209 Observations 209 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 130000 140000 150000 160000 170000 180000 Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis 154403.1 153960.2 183102.5 125997.0 9476.290 0.053546 3.456209 Jarque-Bera Probability 1.912312 0.384368 Correlation matrix Model development Estimated equation Salest = 167412 + 168* AdStock(GRPsTVt,0.75) + 161* AdStock(GRPsRadiot,0.35) + 166* AdStock(Outdoort,0.15) + 580* PromotionDummyt + 6507* Seasonalityt + -12631* Pricet + Errort Model diagnostics • Model: – Significant F-stat and high R-squared • Variables: – Significant T-stats – Coefficients must make sense – Variance inflation factor low • Residuals: – Normality (Jarque-Bera) – Absence of serial correlation ( Durbin Watson, correlogram) Residuals diagnostics 16 Series: RESID Sample 1 209 Observations 209 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -10000 -5000 0 ˆ y yˆ 5000 Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis -2.31e-11 -66.11295 8049.987 -11378.69 3612.711 -0.158326 2.624286 Jarque-Bera Probability 2.102443 0.349511 Durbin Watson = 1.69 DW>2 positive autocorrelation DW<2 negative autocorrelation Estimated factors contribution to sales Fitted Salest = estimated Intercept = 167,412 Can be interpreted as Brand Equity: •Volume generated in absence of any marketing activity •Indicator of the strength of the brand and users’ loyalty Estimated factors contribution to sales TV Contributiont(000’ Gallons) = coefficient *Adstock(TV)t Fitted Salest = 167,412 + 168* TVt + 161*Radiot + 166* OOHt + 580* Promotiont Estimated factors contribution to sales Peacks every year in August Peaks every year in August Fitted Salest = 167,412 + 168* TVt + 161*Radiot + estimated Intercept = Seasonaility 167,412 166* OOHt Equity + 580*= Promotion t + 6507* t Can be interpreted as Brand Equity Estimated factors contribution to sales Fitted Salest = 167,412 + 168* TVt + 161*Radiot + 166* OOHt + 580* Promotiont + 6507* Seasonailityt - 12631* Pricet Negative price effect Marketing mix (sample output) Estimated factors contribution to sales Estimated factors contribution to sales N TotSalesContribution coeff Factori i 1 Estimated factors contribution to revenue N Tot Re venueContribution coeff Factori Pricei i 1 ROI ROI TOT Re venueContr ibution TOTCost Does it really make sense? TheDiminishing more I invest in media, returns the more I sell Response curves NegExp a (1 exp(b GRPs)) S a (1 /(1 exp(b (GRPs mean(GRPs)))) Taking into account diminishing returns Price elasticity • Assumption: constant elasticity across the sample which implies a linear relation between volume and price • By using the coefficient of the regression, it is possible to derive an estimate for price elasticity: – Price coefficient = -12631 – Average price = 1.51 $ – Average volume sales = 154,000 Gallons Avg Price Elasticity * coeff 0.12 AvgSales A 10% drop in price increases sales by 1.2% Dynamic price elasticity Elasticity changes with price 200,000 Weekly Volume and $ Sales vis-à-vis price of 1.75L 180,000 Volume (9L Cases) 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Elastic (>1): Demand is sensitive to price changes. Inelastic (<1): Demand is not sensitive to price changes 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 Price (750 ml) 23 22 21 20.0 Volume 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 0 Estimated through non linear regressions Client’s questions How much have we made through advertising? • 1 billion $ driven by TV • 500 million $ due to radio • 200 million $ generated by Outdoor and promotional activities Investments in media generated 1.7 billion $ in revenue Client’s questions What is the return on investments of our media activities? For each dollar invested in TV you get 3.5 dollars back Client’s questions What’s the influence of price on our sales? A 10% drop in price increases sales by 1.2% Are we optimally allocating our budget across products ? Maximum Marginal Return Optimal GRPs Over Optimal GRPs Point of Saturation Sub –Optimal GRPs Maximum Average Return Invest more in Radio and less in OOH Marketing Mix – Sample Output Marketing mix (sample output) 45 Diminishing Returns 5000 35 4500 Promo TV Saturation 3500 3000 2500 Current 2000 Optimal 30 Weekly GRPs 4000 Weekly Sales Carry Over Effect 40 1500 25 20 15 10 1000 5 500 0 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Avg. Weekly GRPs Diminishing Returns is the point were spending additional GRPs does not results in additional sales. Simultaneous Effect Volume Carry Over Effect (Ad Stock) relates to the residual effect of an ad. Base/Seasonal TV/Radio/Print Direct Marketing Time Rates/Promotions When all the components are layered on Base sales, it is clear what drivers contribute to sales and when and their Simultaneous Effect. Pros and cons • Simple and intuitive • The outcome is backed by qualitative expertise and in field research • Constructive way of running different scenarios and evaluating past performance • Better with granular data • Very successful method – high turnover • Correlation doesn’t imply causality • Risk of spurious regressions especially when modelling in levels • Model highly depends on variables chosen • Poor in forecasting Spurious statistics • A high correlation between sales and TV could mean: Sales Media Income – Either media causes sales – or sales causes media – or a third variable causes both sales and TV What is the truth? Non sense correlations • Some spurious correlations: – death rate and proportion of marriages Corr = 0.95 – National income and sunspots Corr = 0.91 – Inflation rate and accumulation of annual rainfall • On the other hand, a low correlation doesn’t rule out the possibility of a strong relation: Corr = 0.0 •Correlations must support a theory •Calculate correlations both in levels and differences •Always look at scatter plots What variables should have been included? New media • Digital Marketing – Display Marketing – Search Engine Marketing (SEO & PPC) – Affiliate Marketing – Mobile Marketing – Social Media New media • Data availability – Impressions – Clicks – Post event activity – Bespoke engagement metrics • Example of a tracking centre: – Double-click Alternative methods • • • • • • Linear regression Logistic regression Discriminant analysis Factor analysis Cluster analysis Structural equations modelling Pooled regressions Sales Local media Nat media Local Price California California USA California + ... + error Nevada Nevada USA Nevada + ... + error Oregon Oregon USA Oregon + ... + error sa Pooled regressions example 1. SalesCalifornia = c11*TVCalifornia + c12*TVOregon+c13*RadioCalifornia +c14*RadioOregon + ErrorColifornia 2. SalesOregon = c21*TVCalifornia + c22*TVOregon+c23*RadioCalifornia +c24*RadioOregon + ErrorOregon TVC SalesC c11 c12 Sales c O 21 c22 c13 c23 Media effect is also tested across regions c14 TVO C c24 RadioC O Radio O How advertising effects consumers? Understanding: – the process by which advertising affects consumers – How the effects of advertising are spread over time – The role of different media – The role of competitors The purchase funnel • A basic process that leads to the purchase of a product consists in: – Awareness – costumer is aware of the existence of a product – Consideration – actively expressing an interest in the company – Purchase Awareness Consideration Purchase Working on survey data • A sample of the target audience is interviewed about brand awareness, consideration and choice • Research agencies provide awareness, consideration and purchase time series in % terms – i.e. A purchase of 10% means that 10 out of 100 interviewed people purchased the product Testing the purchase funnel Awareness Media Consideration Purchase Advertising first exercise its influence on awareness. Via awareness there is an effect on consideration which drives the consumer to purchase Testing the purchase funnel • Awarenesst=c11+c12*TVt+c13*radiot+c14*OOHt+error1t • Considerationt = b1*awarenesst + c21 + error2t • Purchaset = b3*Considerationt + b2*Awareness +c31 + error3t a1,a2,a3 must be insignificant to confirm theory 1 b 1 b2 a1 1 b3 a2 Awart c11 a3 Const c21 1 Purcht c31 c12 c13 0 0 0 0 Const c14 1t TVt 0 2 t Radiot 0 3t OOHt Agenda • Business application of Marketing Mix modelling • A case study • Strengths and weaknesses • Brief introduction to more advanced approaches: pooled regressions and structural equations References