Contracting, Governance and Organizational Form • Coordination and control are problems for all business organizations. The larger the organization, the larger the problem. • Contracts help insure performance, but most contracts are incomplete, and thus can be thwarted through moral hazard. • Goods are allocated in free markets by using prices. • However, there are alternative allocative mechanisms that are adopted, such as vertical mergers to avoid using prices. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 1 Role of Business Contracting in Cooperative Games • The amount of advertising and service can be viewed as a game. • The outcome can be sub-optimal; that is, it is not value maximizing. The cooperative solution sometime yields better payoffs. • To get to a value-maximizing solution, the manufacturer may have to consider side payments or credible commitments to the retailer. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 2 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 3 Contracts • Contracts between players are binding, they specify actions by both parties. » A contract is a third party enforceable agreement to facilitate deferred exchange. • Contracts must assign penalties for not living up to the agreement. These payments are part of a several step sequential game. » If the retailer decides to discontinue a service for a product the manufacturer produces, then the contract can provide economic sanctions that make this decision unattractive. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 4 Vertical Requirements Contract • A vertical requirements contract is one in which the firms in successive stages of production agree to payments and/or penalties for taking an action. • Contracts must assign penalties for not living up to the agreement. These payments are part of a several step sequential game. » If the manufacturer spends a large amount to advertise the product, the distributor promises to promote the product as well. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 5 Vertical Requirements Contract • Expectation damages are remedies for breach of contract designed to elicit efficient precaution and efficient reliance on promises. These are payments for non-performance of a contract. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 6 Frustration of Purpose Doctrine • Suppose you enter into an agreement to sell a truck that uses 100% ethanol. But suppose the government changes rules making ethanol use prohibited. • The Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) provided the frustration of purpose doctrine to excuse the truck manufacturer from delivering something it is prohibited in doing. This would likely give the truck manufacturer a way to avoid ‘expectation damages’ if sued by the truck retailer. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 7 A Spectrum of Contract Environments • Spot Market Transaction – one time only exchange of standardized goods » Tends to be between anonymous buyers and sellers, and information tends to be efficient » The purchase of a dozen ears of corn at a roadside stand or the sale of electricity at a spot rate off the grid, are examples of spot markets. • Vertical Requirements Contracts – promise of future performance for immediate consideration » Tends to be between contract partners that know each other, but there are problems with ambiguity © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 8 A Spectrum of Contract Environments • Relational Contract – between repeat business parties » Tends to be self-enforcing because we can see if the other partner lives up to his or her word. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 9 Incomplete Information and Incomplete Contracting • Incomplete Information -- uncertain knowledge of payoffs, choices, or types of opponents a market player faces. • Insurance works when we can pool a group of possible events (like injuries at work) to reduce the risk of loss to any one party. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 10 Incomplete Information and Incomplete Contracting • But some risks are catastrophic, like a nuclear accident. It is difficult to assess the likelihood or the damage; hence, insurance in this case is often unavailable. • Contracts can specify duties under several states of the world, but sometimes the outcomes are too numerous or unknowable for years. This creates incomplete contracts. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 11 Types • Full contingent claims contract -- specifies all possible future events. • Incomplete contingent claims contract -- not all possible future events are specified. Due to incomplete contracts, some people may take advantage of the spirit of the contract. Accident insurance may permit people to succumb to a moral hazard by acting recklessly. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 12 Corporate Governance and the Problem of Moral Hazard • Doing business in markets involves the cost of contracts. • When only incomplete contracts are possible, it is often the best to integrate the operations within a firm. • The moral hazard problem occurs when parties change their behavior due to contracts. This is especially true when the people’s effort is hard to observe. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 13 Corporate Governance and the Problem of Moral Hazard • In a borrower-lender contract, a reliable borrower, once given money in a loan, may elect to invest in highly risky projects. • » To try to avoid this moral hazard, the bank may insist on costly monitoring or governance actions, forcing the borrower to submit frequent financial data. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 14 Implementaion of Mechanisms of Corporate Governance Table 15.2 • Internal monitoring by an independent board of directors subcommittee • Internal/external monitoring by large creditors • Internal/external monitoring by owners of large blocks of stock • Auditing and variance analysis • Internal benchmarking • Corporate culture of ethical duties • High employee morale supportive of whistle blowers © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 15 The Principal-Agent Model • The agents (managers) may wish to maximize leisure and minimize risk, whereas the principal (shareholders) may wish hard work and high riskreturn investments. • Example: an employee knows that working hard helps the whole firm, and helps himself only a little. Why not let the other workers be grinds and take it easy (be a free rider)? © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 16 The Principal-Agent Model • Principal-Agent problems may lead to: • Risk Avoidance in Managers • Managers have Short Time Horizons • Sales Maximization • High Levels of Social Amenities at the Work Site • Satisficing or Sufficing Behavior © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 17 Alternative Managerial Labor Contracts • A consultant is hired for 50 hours at Wa. • Alternatively, a manager is paid a profit-sharing payment, ray AB, which is 40% of the profits » The first 22 hours, the consultant is overcompensated area AJD » The last 28 hours, consultant is under-compensated area DCF » If Area O = Area U, the consultant is indifferent between fixed wage Wa and the 40% profit sharing deal • If profit sharing were reduced, to IB, then the consultant would prefer the fixed wage rate. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 18 Work Effort, Creative Ingenuity, and the Moral Hazard Problem • Profit sharing, in the previous example, has a problem. • After the first 22 hours, if the work is not observed, the consultant can earn Wa, at other work. • It is disloyal, but rational not to work as hard as possible for this employer. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 19 Work Effort, Creative Ingenuity, and the Moral Hazard Problem • The shirking consultant works for two employers. • With this outcome expected by the employer, the employer decides against offering a profitsharing contract, and if possible, attempts to monitor the consultant by a piece rate. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 20 Principal-Agent Problem in Managerial Labor Markets • Stockholders (principals) hire managers (agents) with different incentives. • Alternative labor contracts Pay based on profits Paying a bonus on top of a salary when goals are exceeded Have manager own stock • Benchmarking involves a comparison of similar firms, plants, or divisions © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 21 Signaling and Sorting of Managerial Talent Applicants to positions know more about themselves than they reveal, which is the problem of asymmetric information. Asymmetric Information -- unequal or dissimilar knowledge among market participants. For example, is the applicant highly risk averse or a risk taker? If I ask you if you are highly risk averse, you will likely tell me what I want to hear. How can we sort between risk-takers and risk averse candidates? © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 22 Screening and Sorting of Managerial Talent with Optimal Incentives Contracts • A Linear Incentive Contract is a combination of salary and (plus or minus!) a profit sharing rate. • A Pooling Equilibrium is an offer that dominates all other offers will not help distinguish among applicants. • A Separating equilibrium is an offers that distinguishes between behaviors • For example, a risk averse person would tend to select an offer which primarily paid a base salary • Whereas the risk-loving individual would tend to select an offer with more profit sharing. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 23 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 24 Choosing the Efficient Organizational Form • A reliant asset is at least partially non-redeployable durable asset. » Specialized equipment or specialized knowledge cannot be transferred to other uses. • In markets with reliant assets, one party could “hold-up” the other party. The choice of organization will require explicit contracts. • The likely outcome is franchise contracts or vertical integration. • Relational contracts are promissory agreements of coordinated performance. » Pepsi selling Starbucks cold frappuccino in Pepsi vending machines is a relational contract or alliance agreement. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 25 The Efficient Organizational Form Depends on Asset Characteristics Table 15.3 Fully Redeployable Durable Assets Nonredeployable Reliant Assets Not Dependent on Unique Complements Spot market recontracting One-Way Dependent Assets Relational contracts (alliances) Long-term supply contracts + risk management Vertical integration Bilateral Dependent Assets Relational contracts (joint ventures) Fixed profit-sharing contracts © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 26 Prospect Theory Motivates Full-Line Forcing • Utility theory in economics is based on the LEVEL of wealth or income received. More money leads to higher satisfaction or utility. • But Prospect theory is based on the choice relative to a base point. The difference (or the prospect) is categorized as either a gain or loss. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 27 Prospect Theory Motivates Full-Line Forcing • Buy now, pay later has both a gain (the goods now) and the loss (the pay later) • A car purchase as a “loss” of the money paid, but as a “gain” if you think you got a good deal. It can also help explain why manufacturers offer many versions (a fullline) of automobiles to get the customer to trade up to a pricier version. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 28 Prospect Theory & Full-Line Forcing © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 29 Vertical Integration • Vertical integration is a way to avoid transaction costs, such as moral hazard, which are found in arm's length (or market) dealing. • The two stages of production are merged. The producer ships goods to the next stage of the same firm. • If each stage of production has some monopoly power, the profits can be higher by merging the two stages. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 30 Vertical Integration in the Hosiery Market Ph’ Ph Py’ Py • Suppose yarn is used in making hosiery (socks) in fixed proportions. • Let the marginal cost of yarn (MCy) and hosiery Py’ +MCh manufacture (MCh) be constant. MCy +MCh • The profit maximizing hosiery price is Ph MCh • But if the price of yarn is raised to Py’ the price ends Higher yarn prices up too high at Ph’ with MCy smaller total profits for the MRh hosiery + yarn industries. DEMAND Figure 15.6 Quantity (lbs.) © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 31 Mergers with Upstream Competitors • Hence, if one firm manufactured yarn and another firm manufacturer hosiery, the merged firm could be run optimally and be more profitable than separate firms. • This is a reason why firms often expand vertically (or backward to earlier stages of production). » If the hosiery firm buys a yarn maker, this is viewed as backward integration, going backward “upstream” in the manufacturing process. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 32 Dissolution • Integration combines assets, but often conglomerate firms find it in their interest to sell assets to get back to their core businesses. • Suppose a partnership wants to divide up the assets, but in doing so, the market may wish only to pay highly discounted prices. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 33 Dissolution • Suppose the whole firm is worth $3 million, and Joe and Kim want to divide it. • If both agree, the deal goes through. • If either disagrees, the value of the whole shrinks by $1 million at EACH disagreement. What happens? © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 34 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 35 Government Regulation • Corporations are legal entities which exist only because governments allow them to exist. • Governments impose many restrictions on firms: mergers, patents, licensing, or subsidies. • The stated intention of governments is to set restrictions that promote social welfare, but they sometimes benefit particular groups or individuals. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 36 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 37 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 38 Antitrust Regulation and their Enforcement • In trusts, the voting rights to the several firms are conveyed to a legal trust to manage the group of firms as if it were one firm. This tends to create monopolization of an industry. • The Sherman Antitrust Act (1890) outlawed monopolies per se and attempted monopolization. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 39 The Clayton Act (1914) • The Clayton Act (1914) extended the list of conduct that was anti-competitive: a. price discrimination. (section 2) b. tying contracts force customers to buy added products with one product. (section 3) c. purchasing shares of competing firms as an anti-merger section. (section 7) d. corporate directorship interlocks occur when the same people are in directorships of competing firms. (section 8) © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 40 The Federal Trade Commission Act (1914) • Was passed in 1914 as a supplement to the Clayton Act. • Section 5 states “..unfair methods of competition in commerce are hereby declared illegal.” © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 41 Robinson-Patman Act (1936) Section 2(a) prohibits price discrimination which "substantially lessen competition". Section (2b) provides a cost justification for price discrimination. Section (2c) prohibits some kinds of brokerage commissions. Sections (2d-2e) prohibits discounts to buyers not afforded to other customers. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 42 Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvement Act (1976) • Requires notification by large firms to the Justice Department and FTC of impending mergers. • DOJ and/or FTC may either challenge the proposed merger or allow the merger to be completed. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 43 Measuring the impact of mergers • A relevant market is a group of economic agents that interact in a buyer-seller relationship. The nature of that relationship is affected by the number and size distribution of the buyers and sellers. • A popular measure of seller concentration is the percentage of an industry comprised of the top 4 firms (4CR). • Similarly, the top 4 buyers is a popular measure of buyer concentration. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 44 Market Concentration Ratios • The size distribution of firms is measured by the percentage of the top four (4CR) firms (or buyers) » .22 » .18 58% of market is controlled by top 4 firms » .10 » .08 » … shares of market listed in descending order • Similar concentration of occur for 8-firm, 20-firm, and 50-firm ratios © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 45 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) • To compute HHI: » You must know the market shares of all firms » Herfindahl-Hirschman Index: HHI = S si2 » The larger the HHI the more monopolistic is the industry • Example: Baby Food » 70% for Gerber » 16% for Beech-Nut » 14% for Heinz • So the 4CR = 100% • And the HHI = (70)2 + (16)2 + (14)2 = 5,352 • The maximum HHI is (100)2 = 10,000 for a pure monopoly • With 100 firms, each with 1% of the market, HHI=100 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 46 Antitrust Prohibitions of Selected Business Decisions Collusion to fix prices (airlines and grocery stores have been penalized) Mergers that substantially lessen competition (mergers raise 4CR and the HHI) » If HHI > 1,800, mergers are usually challenged » If 1,000 < HHI < 1,8000, mergers tend to be challenged if raise the HHI by more than 100 points » If HHI < 1,000, most mergers are not challenged • 4CR and HHI are two ways to measure changes in market structure caused by mergers. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 47 Merger of DISH Network & Direct TV is Disapproved • • DISH Network and Direct TV were not permitted to merge. Market shares of the competitors before merger were 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. • Comcast 33% DIRECTV 17% Time Warner 17% DISH Network 13% Charter Comm. 10% Cox Comm. 10% HHI 2,036 The relevant market was defined to be satellite TV, and the proposed merger increased the HHI by 442 points, which led the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department to disallow the merger © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 48 More Antitrust Prohibitions: Monopolization (attempted monopolization is a violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act) Wholesale Price Discrimination (forms of price discrimination that injured other competitors, not necessarily customers) » Penguin Books sold books at lower prices to Barnes & Noble than to other bookstores Refusals to Deal (when not based on legitimate business justifications) © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 49 The Deregulation Movement • Airlines and the trucking industries have been deregulated. • They are no longer "infant industries". • Deregulation of long-distance occurred due in large part to technological changes in transmitting phone messages by microwave. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 50 Regulation of Externalities • Externalities: » Externalities exist when benefits or costs fall on others who do not contribute or are reimbursed. » Some externalities are welcome and others are disliked. • Pecuniary Externalities: » When the spillover are purely reflected in prices » Example: The fear of mad cow disease reduces beef prices and raises chicken prices, but no inefficiency occurs as they are reflected in market prices. • Resource Misallocation: » When not pecuniary, externalities harm resource allocation. Urban blight leads to too little investment. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 2005 South-Western Publishing Slide 51 The Coase Theorem The Coase Theorem argues that, if the transaction costs for private contracting between parties are very low, the problems of externalities will be resolved without governmental intervention efficiently. Even if governments and the courts can assign property rights or duties however they wish, the solution is unaffected when transaction costs are low. Consider a railroad that burns crops planted nearby. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 52 Coase’s Railroad • Table 16.4 panel A, when the RR has property rights. Farmer’s profits in the upper triangle. Without contracting, the RR would run 2 trains per day and the Farmer would plant 10 acres. • With contracting, Coase predicts that farmer would bribe the RR about $501 to reduce the number of trains to 1 per day. The farmer gets $900 $401 = $499 which is better $300; RR gets $1,501 better than $1,500. Farmer’s Gross Profits By acres planted 0 10 0 0 0 1,500 0 0 Railroad’s 1 Gross Profits 1,000 By trains per day 1,600 0 900 1,000 0 2 20 400 1,000 300 -800 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 1,500 1,500 1,500 Slide 53 Coase’s Railroad • Table 16.4 panel B, when the RR has the liabilities. Without contracting, the Farmer would plant 20 acres & the RR would not run. • With contracting, Coase predicts that RR would bribe the RR about $101 to reduce the acreage to 10. The farmer gets $1,500 + $101 = $1,601 which is better $1,600; RR gets $400 - $101 better than without contracting. Farmer’s Gross Profits By acres planted 0 10 0 0 0 1,500 0 0 Railroad’s 1 Gross Profits 1,000 By trains per day 1,600 0 1,500 400 0 2 20 1,600 -200 300 1,600 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. 1,500 300 -900 Slide 54 Result of Coase’s Railroad Example • Whether the RR had the property right or the farmer, the result was 10 acres and 1 train per day. Circled in both examples. • This required a very low cost of contracting. • This is called Reciprocal Externalities. • We might expect that there would be many farmers and the costs of transactions could be steep. » Class Action Suits – is a way to reduce the costs of a group » Strategic Holdouts – can raise the cost of negotiation if one farmer wants even more of the payout © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 55 Coase Theorem with Farmers & Ranchers: • Cattle Ranchers another example » Suppose a fence costs $500,000 to keep cattle out of farmland » Suppose damage to corn is $100,000 by cattle » What should happen? • No fence will be built • Corn Farmers » Now suppose that a fence costs only $100,000 » Suppose damage to corn is $500,000 by the cattle » What should happen? • A fence will be built © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 56 But Property Rights Matter in a world with transaction costs • It is often costly to arrange contracts between ranchers and farmers • Suppose the fence costs more than the damage » If the property right to safe crops is established, the farmer will want a fence regardless of cost. An costly fence is constructed. » If the property right is for open range grazing, the rancher will not want a fence. No fence is built. • Therefore, who gets the property right matters! © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 57 Other Solutions to Externalities • • • • • Solution by Prohibition. Solution by Regulatory Directive. Solution by Taxes and Subsidies. Solution by Sale of Pollution Rights. Solution by Merger © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 58 Government Protection of Business • Governments historically have helped some companies by restricting or eliminating competition. • Examples » Licensing of professions (or businesses) » Permission to run a business in a community » Patents of ideas or processes restricts use of the idea » Import quotas © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 59 Debate on Patent Protection • • • How long should a patent run? 20 years in US may be too long But patents reward R&D work Consider: Motorola & Lucent who can come up with a patent or imitate (copy) the other firm’s idea Motorola’s payoffs are in the upper triangles. » Strategy choices: Patent means develop and patent. Imitate means imitate by licensing. If Motorola develops a process and patents it, Lucent will imitate and license it, so Motorola will see this as a poor outcome. If Lucent develops a process and patents it, it is best for Motorola to imitate with a license. » This outcome in the dashed oval is the iterative dominant strategy pair that will likely occur and is a Nash Equilibrium Table 16.7 page 638 Lucent Imitate Patent • • • • Motorola (in upper triangles) Patent Imitate $1 B $3 B $5 B $4 B -$1B $9 B $0 B $0 B © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 60 Long-Term Investment Analysis • Budgeting is a form of planning » Operational Budgeting -- revenues & expenses » Capital Budgeting – is the planning and evaluation capital expenditures (which are assets that last more than a year) • even more significant, since capital projects will impact the firm for many years to come • Problem of Limits: » Every manager wants more equipment, more supplies, more buildings, more employees » The issue is to accept good projects, and forego others © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 61 Ozone Depletion and Greenhouse Gases • • • Very long term projects can look good or bad depending on the discount rate used » Low discount rates mean the future benefits are larger and are more worthwhile » High discount rates mean that future benefits are very small, and less valuable. The impact of greenhouse gasses is long term damage that makes benefit-cost analysis difficult Suppose $100 billion damage in 100 years, what would or should we spend today to avoid it. » At 2%, we would be willing to spend up to $13.8 billion to avoid $100 billion in 100 years » At 7%, we would be willing only to spend up to $1.15 billion © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 62 The Capital Budgeting Process 1. Generate alternative capital investment project proposals Often each department head offers several proposals 2. Estimate cast flows for each project proposal Be sure to include all the costs and revenue impacts 3. Evaluate and choose from these alternatives the projects to implement NPV, IRR, payback methods discussed later 4. Review the investment projects after they have been implemented. The hope is that we learn from our past mistakes © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 63 Estimating Cash Flows • Estimate initial costs, called NINV or the net investment of the project » Information comes from actual bids, “request for proposals” (RFPs), estimates, and some guesses • Then also estimate net cash flows (NCFs) for the future depends of life of asset » Spreadsheet programs of Excel or Lotus are helpful NCF = ( R - C - D)·( 1 - t ) + D [17.5] » where R is change in revenues, t is the tax rates, C is change in costs, and D is change in depreciation © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 64 Evaluating and Choosing 1. Net Present Value (NPV) » More often, firms use their estimates of NINV and NCFs to solve equation [Equation 17.7] » NPV has two parts. It is the present value of future net cash flows discounted at k, the firm’s required cost of capital. Subtract from that its initial cost (NINV) to find the NPV » All projects with NPV > 0 increase the value of the firm and should be undertaken! © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 65 Net Present Value Example Should you invest $60,000 in a project that will return $15,000 per year for five years? You have a minimum return of 8% and expect inflation to hold steady at 3% over the next five years. Year 0 1 Net flow Discount -$60,000 1.0000 $15,000 0.9009 2 3 4 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 0.8116 0.7312 0.6587 5 $15,000 0.5935 NPV The NPV -$60,000.00 column total is $13,513.51 negative, so $12,174.34 don’t invest! $10,967.87 $9,880.96 $8,901.77 -$4,561.54 Slide 66 Evaluating and Choosing the Investment Projects 2. Internal Rates of Return (IRR) » Using your estimates of NINV and NCFs, find r that generates a NPV of 0. [Equation 17.6] » This r is the IRR, or the rate of return of the project » If r > k, the firm’s required cost of capital, then you should do that project © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 67 Internal Rate of Return Example A project that costs $40,000 will generate cash flows of $14,000 for the next four years. You have a rate of return requirement of 17%; does this project meet the threshold? Year Net flow Discount NPV 0 -$40,000 1.0000 -$40,000.00 1 $14,000 0.9009 $12,173.91 2 $14,000 0.8116 $10,586.01 3 $14,000 0.7312 $9,205.23 4 $14,000 0.6587 $8,004.55 This table has been calculated using a discount rate of 15% -$30.30 The project doesn’t meet our 17% requirement and should not be considered further. Slide 68 IRR versus NPV: Mutually Exclusive Projects • Suppose that you are going to expand production in two places, X or Y, but not in both places. These are mutually exclusive choices • It may be that both have IRRs higher than the required return (say 5%) and that both have positive NPVs. • The ranking of the two projects may conflict. • Pick the project with the higher NPV. Table 17.1 Project Project X Y NINV $1,000 $1,000 NCF’s yr 1 yr 2 667 667 1,400 NPV(5%) $240 $270 IRR 0 21.5% 18.3% Even though the IRR of the Project X is higher than Project Y, pick Y for its better NPV. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 69 Payback Period Determines how long it takes for a project to reach a breakeven point Investment Payback Period Annual Cash Savings Cash flows should be discounted Lower numbers are better (faster payback) Slide 70 Payback Period Example A project requires an initial investment of $200,000 and will generate cash savings of $75,000 each year for the next five years. What is the payback period? Year Cash Flow Cumulative 0 ($200,000) ($200,000) 1 $75,000 ($125,000) 2 $75,000 ($50,000) 3 $75,000 $25,000 Divide the cumulative amount by the cash flow amount in the third year and subtract from 3 to find out the moment the project breaks even. 3 25, 000 2.67 years 75, 000 Slide 71 Reviewing and Implementing Projects after Implementation • Often a neglected step, but reviewing helps to reveal where mistakes were made in the past • Forecasts are rarely perfect, but large mistakes may occur in: » Over-estimating the impact on revenue » Under-estimating the impact on costs » Forgetting to include spillover impacts on other projects within the firm » Errors in estimating the firm’s cost of capital © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 72 Estimating the Firm’s Cost of Capital • Cost of Debt Capital is after-tax interest cost of debt at the marginal firm tax rate [17.9] • • • Small firms typically borrow from a bank, and they know the interest rate, kd, which is interest rate on debt Larger firms can sell bonds or corporate paper. When they sell new bonds close to par value, they know what interest rate they are paying. If kd = 9%, and t = .40 tax rate, ki = 5.4% © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 73 Estimating the Firm’s Cost of Capital • Cost of Equity Capital is the cost if raised internally through retained earnings or borrowed externally from new issues of stock. 1. From the dividend discount model, assuming a constant-growth in dividends at rate g, (div. yield + growth rate) [17.13] 2. Or the cost of external capital where Vnet is net of the [17.14] floatation costs of new stock © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 74 Estimating the Firm’s Cost of Capital • Weighted Cost of Capital ka = (equity fraction)•ke + (debt fraction)•kd Let D be the amount of debt and E be the amount of equity ka [17.15] • » If we know the debt-equity structure and the cost of equity and of debt capital, we can calculate the weighted cost of capital Example: 75% of financing is equity and the rest is with debt, and the cost of equity capital is 12%, the interest rate on debt before taxes is 8%, with a 40% marginal tax rate. Find ka: ka = .75•.12 + .25•.08(1-.40) = 10.2% © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 75 Cost-Benefit Analysis • Many organizations don’t have a clear-cut cost of financing, such as public and not-for-profit (NFP) organizations. • For personal decisions and NFP, cost-benefit analysis is often a useful tool. • Like listing the pros and cons to any decision, it is best to list all the positive and negative inflows and outflows from a decision. • For projects that last several years, the discount rate is said to be the social discount rate. • Benefit-Cost Ratio = (Present Value of Benefits)/Cost • If the Benefit-Cost Ratio > 1, then the project should be undertaken © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 76 Steps in Cost-Benefit Analysis 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Determine the objective to be maximized Some projects involve health, others retention in school, others economic growth. The objective matters. Consider the constraints on the decision What costs and what benefits should be included in the analysis Select a criterion to determine whether the project should be accepted or rejected Select an appropriate discount rate A low social discount rate will tend to make projects, such as Head-Start for preschoolers more likely to be accepted, since the payoff is many years down the road © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 77 Cost-Benefit Analysis and Social Improvement • Pareto Optimality - all projects that help someone without hurting anyone should be accepted » But almost all projects require some money from someone, so it is hard to find many projects that would meet the Pareto Criterion • Kaldor-Hicks Criterion – weaker notion that project that help some so much that they could potentially compensate the losers into agreeing should be accepted • A family with limited money has two kids. The academically gifted one is sent to college. The added income earned by the one kid could potentially compensate the kid who didn’t go to college. This would meet the Kaldor-Hicks Criterion as a good family decision. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 78 Constraints on Cost-Benefit Analysis 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Physical constraints. Limited by the state of technology. Legal constraints. Laws on property rights. Administrative constraints. Hire qualified administrators. Distributional constraints. Must not harm. Political constraints. What is possible vs best. Financial or budget constraints. Social and religious constraints. Cultural and religious considerations. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 79 Analysis and Valuation of Benefits and Costs • The public sector, like the private sector, must evaluate something akin to revenues and costs • Direct Benefits: these include easily measured benefits like crops raised after an irrigation project or less easily measured benefits like lives saved. • Direct Costs: typically these are the costs of the projects themselves. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 80 Analysis and Valuation of Benefits and Costs • Indirect Costs and Benefits: we find that a public policy may help people directly, such as a program to reduce blindness, and indirectly it may help reduce needs for other social service expenditures in the future. • Intangibles: the most difficult to measure such as quality of life or aesthetic contributions. » Even though hard to measure, all of these can be approximated © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 81 The Appropriate Rate of Discount • • • • The social rate of discount is used for capital projects. Proponents of projects WANT to use a low rate Opponents of projects WANT to use a high rate The economist William Baumol notes that projects in the public sector draw money away from the private sector » If 10% is earned in the private sector, then that would be a good social rate to use » Alternatively, if a public project has an IRR of 25%, it is very likely that the project should be undertaken, since it is very hard to earn 25% in the private sector © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 82 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Cost-effectiveness analysis asks what are the costs of alternative means for reaching a goal? » We know we must fight crime, but what is the cheapest way to do it? 1. Constant-cost studies specify the output for a given cost from alternative programs. 2. Least-cost studies alternative programs to achieve a given goal are examined in terms of cost. 3. Objective-level studies estimate the cost of achieving several performance levels of the same objective. © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Slide 83