Recidivism in the Rhode Island
Juvenile Corrections Population
Kevin Aucoin, JD & Colleen Caron, Ph.D.
Rhode Island Department of Children, Youth &
Families
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Framework
 Following the recommendations outlined in the
Council of Juvenile Corrections Administrators
(CJCA) white paper “Defining and Measuring
Recidivism” Rhode Island DCYF is examining reincarceration and recidivism rates for adjudicated
youth.
 Analyses have been conducted for youth who have
been incarcerated at the Rhode Island Training
School and for youth who have been sentenced to
probation.
CJCA Definitions
 CJCA recommends assessing recidivism at 5
points in the process:
 Arrest
 Filing of Charges
 Adjudication or Conviction
 Commitment to juvenile facility
 Commitment to adult facility
 We are using a new adjudication or conviction
to define recidivism for our population.
Barriers
 The structure of the RI data system has historically made
it difficult to systematically assess recidivism beyond an
adjudicated return to the training school.
 Previous studies have involved hand counting to
determine rates of recidivism.
 In addition it has been difficult to obtain data from the
adult system. Recently we obtained incarceration (but
not probation) data from the adult system.
 Our research collaboration with Yale University has
resulted in changes to the MIS system.
 In addition, the Yale team has conducted analyses to
determine re-incarceration & recidivism rates.
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Recidivism of Incarcerated Youth
 Cohort defined as the youth who have had an
adjudicated stay (14 days or longer) at the Rhode
Island Training School. Analyses include:
 Examination of re-incarceration (to adult or
juvenile corrections).
 Examination of recidivism defined as an
adjudication that results in incarceration or
probation in either the juvenile or adult
corrections systems.
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Recidivism of Youth on Probation
• Recidivism analyses for youth sentenced to
probation include:
▫ Recidivism that results in a new sentence of probation
(juvenile or adult systems) or an adjudicated return to
the juvenile or adult corrections facilities.
▫ Analyses to examine the recidivism patterns for youth
whose probation sentence includes placement in a
Temporary Community Placement (TCP) facility are
planned, but not yet completed.
Rhode Island Methods
• Recidivism defined as new adjudication (not a
technical VOP) that resulted in:
▫ Any sentence within Juvenile Corrections including:
 Incarceration at Rhode Island Training School
 Probation within the juvenile corrections system
 Incarceration in the Adult Corrections Institute (ACI)
within one or two years of release.
• New adjudications to Adult Probation not
included as that data is not yet available.
Rhode Island Training School
• Cohort consists of each episode where youth was
released from Rhode Island Training School (RITS) in
2007 (n=296), 2008 (n=267) and 2009 (n=178).
▫ The 2009 sample only includes youth released from
1/1/09 to 10/15/09 as follow-up data was only
available through 10/15/10.
• Episode defined as a release from an adjudicated stay at
RITS (> 14 days).
• Clock starts when the youth is released from the RITS.
Rhode Island Training School:
Recidivism Rates for Release Cohorts
*Two year follow-up data is not yet available for the 2009 cohort.
RITS Recidivism Results
2007
2008
2009
296
267
178*
Modal age of juveniles during RITS stay
16.82
SD = 1.19
R: 13-20
17
16.68
SD=1.33
R: 13-20
17
16.87
SD=1.12
R=13-19
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Total number of recidivism events within 1 year
of release
66
(22.3%)
69
(25.8%)
37
(20.8%)
Total number of recidivism events within 2 years
of release
103
(34.80%)
109
(40.82%)
n/a
Total number of adjudicated releases (RITS stay ≥
14 days)
Mean age of juveniles during RITS stay
*2009 sample includes youth released from the RITS between 1/1/09 and 10/15/09
As follow-up data was only available through 10/15/10 two-year recidivism rates
are not yet available for this cohort.
Rhode Island Juvenile Probation
• Cohort consists of each opening to probation in
2007 (n=1,141) and 2008 (n=1,101).
 This includes youth sentenced to RITS who served
their sentence in Temporary Community Placement
(TCP) as these youth are open to probation.
 Probation episodes that were a continuation of a
RITS sentence are not included.
• Recidivism occurs if there is a new charge (> 7
days) after probation episode opens.
Recidivism Rates for Rhode Island
Juvenile Probation Entry Cohorts
Probation Recidivism Results
2007
2008
Total number of youth open to probation
1,141
1,110
Mean age of juveniles open to probation
15.72
SD = 1.53
R: 11-21
15.87
SD=1.60
R: 11-20
16
17
Total number of recidivism events within 1 year of opening
290
(25.4%)
236
(21.3%)
Total number of recidivism events within 2 years of opening
385
(33.7%)
349
(31.4%)
Modal age of juveniles when opened to probation
Disposition for Recidivism Events
Probation
RITS
Current Status
• While we have made significant progress this
year in understanding our recidivism rates, we
still have additional work to do.
▫ Additional changes need to be made to our
information system so that charges are attached to
movement through the JC system.
▫ Exploration of recidivism for youth served on TCP
is needed.
▫ More in depth analysis of the trajectories for youth
involved in our system are needed.
Predictors of Recidivism
• We are interested in understanding whether there
are any risk or protective factors that may predict
recidivism for youth involved in the juvenile
corrections system.
▫ Initial work utilizing one cohort of youth from the
RITS sample has begun.
▫ Variables explored include:
 Demographics (age, gender, race/ethnicity)
 History of substantiated cases of child abuse and neglect
 Charge (delinquent vs other charges)
2007 RITS Release Cohort
Characteristics of the Cohort (N=296)
Age
Mean Age: 17.33 (SD=1.18)
Modal age: 17
N
%
280
94.6%
•African American/Black
93
31.4%
• Caucasian
85
28.7%
•Hispanic/Latino
91
30.7%
•Multiracial or Other
16
5.4%
Indicated Child Abuse and Neglect Report
146
49.3%
Delinquency Charge
256
96.3%
Male
Race/Ethnicity
Survival Analysis
• Survival analysis can be used to estimate the
impact of characteristics or other covariates on
the time until recidivism event (Fendrick &
Archer, 1998).
• Cox’s proportional-hazards model was used to
estimate the relative rate of re-adjudication
(hazard function) across time by youth and
charge characteristics.
Overall Recidivism (N=296)
Predictors of Recidivism at 1 Year
Variables Included in Analysis
Youth Age (older youth as compared to younger)
With every 1 year increase in age, 20% decrease risk
Youth Gender (as compared to males)
Hazard’s Ratio
(>1 more likely)
.780**
.311
Youth Race/Ethnicity (as compared to Caucasian)
African American
1.097
Latino
.850
Other
1.269
Substantiated Child Abuse and Neglect History
.999
(as compared to history of abuse neglect)
Delinquency Charge (as compared to charge for delinquency)
* Youth age only variable predicted recidivism for 1 year after release
1.121
Gender and Recidivism
Summary
• Rhode Island has made substantial progress in the
past year in aligning our data systems so that we can
determine our juvenile recidivism rates based on the
definition proposed by CJCA.
• Over the next 6-months we will continue to analyze
recidivism rates for different cohorts (e.g., youth on
TCP).
• Analyses to understand risk and protective factors that
may impact recidivism and the trajectories of youth
served by our system will also be conducted.
CJCA - Recidivism Committee
We want you!!!
Next Steps
1. Looking for State's interested in implementing the
standardized recidivism measures within your
jurisdiction.
2. Strategize on how this data can be utilized to measure
both quantitative and qualitative outcomes on both a
federal, state and county level.
3. Connecting the data on recidivism with the positive
youth outcome measures.
4. Exploring opportunities for financial assistance to
support this initiative.