What We Know About Assessment of Risk of Recidivism and Criminogenic Needs of Offenders: Why and How to Do Assessments? Robin J. Wilson, PhD, ABPP dr.wilsonrj@verizon.net Risk Assessment Risk assessment is the process of identifying the probability or likelihood of future dangerousness or harm, such as a sexual offense or domestic assault. In our general practice, Risk Assessment is concerned with predicting the degree of possibility of a re-offense for someone with a known history of offending. Why Assess Risk? Promoting public safety Guiding routine interventions Targeting scarce resources – Staff time – Treatment Exceptional measures Risk & Dangerousness BAD: “This person is dangerous.” GOOD: “If specific risk factors are present, then there is a high/medium/low probability that the person will engage in specific behaviour within a specific period of time that may place specific persons at risk for a specific type and severity of harm.” Static, Stable, & Acute Risk Factors Definitions Static – Non-changeable life factors that relate to risk for sexual recidivism, generally historical in nature Stable – Personality characteristics, skill deficits, and learned behaviours that relate to risk for recidivism that may be changed through intervention Acute – Risk factors of short or unstable temporal duration that can change rapidly, generally as a result of environmental or intra-personal conditions Risk Assessment It is practically and scientifically impossible to predict any future event with 100% certainty. Consequently, a risk assessment will always involve some degree of uncertainty about the “truth” of the actual prediction. The task of risk assessment is to strike a scientific and ethical balance in the identification and management of potential offenders, while optimizing public safety. Three Generations of Risk Assessment Bonta (1996) First Generation = “Clinical Judgment” Unstructured, Non-replicable, Personal Discretion Based on experience and level of knowledge of the literature Non-standard (even within same institution) Level of prediction little better than chance Second Generation = “Actuarial Assessment” Static, Actuarial, Structured, Replicable, Less open to interpretation Based on factors empirically related to recidivism Standardized assessment, “Static” – Cannot measure change “Moderate” levels of prediction Third Generation = “Dynamic Assessment” Based on factors empirically related to recidivism Standardized assessment, measures changeable Actuarial measure with dynamic factors Principles of Risk Management Analysis Communication Collaboration Monitoring Intervention Re-Analysis Contact Information Robin J. Wilson, PhD, ABPP Wilson & Associates Clinical and Forensic Psychology 941 806 9788 dr.wilsonrj@verizon.net