DISTRIBUTION EFFICIENCY UPDATE 1 Distribution Efficiency – Quick Review • Tier 1 study (19 circuits) completed in 2011 – Four circuits identified for pilot (Mill Creek, Clinton substations) – Seven circuits had at least one unstudied adjacent circuit • • • • Identified influential circuit parameters for CVR Simplified Measurement & Verification Protocol for pilot 2012 savings target: 0 – 0.111 aMW (972 MWh) from pilot Planned Tier 2 study, circuit prioritization 2 PacifiCorp’s 2012 Activities • Engaged in industry research – DSTAR (www.dstar.org) Project P13-7 (still in progress) • Distribution Systems Testing Application and Research – NEETRAC (www.neetrac.gatech.edu) Project 11-136 (still in progress) • National Electric Energy Testing Research and Applications Center • Engaged in Regional Technical Forum (RTF) – Automated CVR Subcommittee & protocol development • Review of applicable PacifiCorp standards • Clinton and Mill Creek pilot projects • Tier 2 study in Washington 3 DSTAR Findings 1. Demand :: Voltage relationship varies w/ feeder, time of day, season, and over the long term 2. Estimating circuit CVR factors from lab values (bottom up) cannot work (too little information) 3. Accurate long-term day on/ day off is extremely difficult 4. Increased frequency & severity of voltage sags 5. Software estimates may not suffice for M&V 4 NEETRAC Findings 1. Statistical analysis performed on pilot by Palmetto Electric Cooperative (SE South Carolina) – – Could not apply RTF’s Automated CVR Protocol #1 due to limited data 13 interested utilities participating in project 2. Demand :: Voltage varies w/ temperature, humidity, demand on previous day, and demand on same day of previous week 3. Must be analyzed on circuit by circuit and day by day basis 5 RTF Progress • Currently two custom CVR protocols exist – Simplified VO M&V Protocol (Approved 5/2010) – Automated CVR Protocol #1 (Approved 4/2004) • Both are under review for compliance w/ new (6/1/2011) RTF guidelines*, including: – A maximum error introduced by sampling – Sources stated for all assumptions – Results are reliable and sufficient to meet the needs of planners and “support regulatory processes related to the adoption and planning of energy efficiency initiatives.” *Guidelines are available at http://www.nwcouncil.org/Energy/RTF/Measures/Support/ 6 Questioning Protocol Assumption #1 • Loads do not have to be distributed evenly? 7 Questioning Protocol Assumption #2 • End-of-line voltage varies linearly with load? – Example from “Robustness of Simplified VO M&V Protocol Measurement Period of 7 Days” by Utility Planning Solutions, PLLC – If end of line voltage can be estimated by load, then several calculations can be “simplified” – The chart shown was derived from software, not actual reads 8 Questioning Protocol Assumption #2 End of Line C phase voltage • Actual pilot measurements show low linear correlation Pilot Circuit R2 Value 5Y608 0.02 5Y610 0.00 5W116 0.09 5W127 0.01 15-minute averages shown Large (~ 2v) bandwidth for any given load No model predicts this accurately Substation MVA 9 Measurement & Verification Considerations • Physics of individual appliance (lab test) well understood • Physics of aggregate system not understood – Variables exist on every level, and they change over time • Substantial assumptions have to be made for M&V – Pre- and post-reduction average voltage must be estimated for all customer locations, all year long – Energy response to voltage reduction must be estimated for all customers, all year long (VO or CVR factor) – To date, no way to determine accuracy of estimates over time • Who can find a consistent, accurate, low cost method to determine energy savings from voltage reduction? 10 Review of PacifiCorp Engineering Handbook • • • • • • 1C.2.1 Voltage Level and Range June 2004 – High level look at ANSI service & utilization voltages 1C.2.2 Steady State Voltage Level Nov. 1998 – Settings methodology (§ 4.1.3 and § A4) is CVR 1C.3.1 Voltage Balance Nov. 1996 – Cites 3% maximum voltage unbalance as target – Accounts for economics, lowest total cost to customer and utility 1E.3.1 Distribution System Planning Study Guide Feb. 2000; minor updates Feb. 2012 – Discusses current unbalance, voltage unbalance, LDC settings, and capacitor location & settings in § 7.4, 7.8 and 7.11, and economics in § 8.3 Overall a good balance of economics and efficient system design Simplified Protocol states that standards become “entrenched” after three years 11 Clinton/ Mill Creek Pilot • Using two 7-day test periods for M&V yields energy savings of ±0.54 aMW, before improvements were initiated. • Example from 5Y610 (VO factor 0.446): Week of 6/25: average voltage = 122.8 Week of 9/10: average voltage = 121.2 • How do we handle data issues? VO energy change by Simplified Protocol: 0.14 aMW (Biennial target = 0.111 aMW) – One missing value affects all calculations – What if one of nine protocol thresholds is not met for a period of time? Is the circuit non-compliant? • At what point is the ‘cost-effective, reliable, feasible’ criterion of RCW 19.285 not met? 12 2012 Tier 2 Study • Completed by SAIC, included 25 circuits • Confirmed Tier 1 VO factor was too high (~30%) • Reaffirmed Tier 1 finding that existing practices are very good • Company’s avoided cost updated to $86.74/MWh • Nine additional viable circuits identified • Other circuits failed to comply with ESUE* thresholds, or had too low a benefit/cost ratio (BCR) *ESUE = Energy Smart Utility Efficiency, a Bonneville Power Administration program that includes system operational metrics for efficiency, is used in the Simplified Protocol. 13 Anticipated Tier 2 Projects • Six circuits from Orchard Substation (Yakima, WA) – – – – – Average cost $30k per circuit 22 phase balancing locations One line regulator bank Lower substation base voltages from 121 to 120 & 119 BCR = 1.15, saving estimated 0.10 aMW • Three circuits from Sunnyside Substation (Sunnyside, WA) – – – – – Average cost $68k per circuit 4 phase balancing locations One line regulator bank Lower substation base voltage from 121 to 119 BCR = 1.48, saving estimated 0.08 aMW • M&V alternatives are being discussed 14 Washington DE Plan • 2013 – Stay engaged with the industry • RTF hopes to have new protocol usable by 2013 Q3 – Continue biennial pilot with Orchard T-3797 and T-5035 • Consider M&V by software – No further detailed circuit studies • 2014 – Implement Sunnyside T-3570 15 Extra Slide 16