FECLecture6 - Financial Engineering Club at Illinois

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FEC
FINANCIAL ENGINEERING CLUB
PRICING EUROPEAN OPTIONS
AGENDA
ο‚  Stochastic Processes
ο‚  Stochastic Calculus
ο‚  Black-Scholes Equation
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
A SIMPLE PROCESS
ο‚  Let 𝑋𝑑 = 1 with probability 𝑝 = 0.5 and 𝑋𝑑 = −1 with probability 1 − 𝑝 = .5 (for
all t) and consider the symmetric random walk, 𝑀𝑑 = 𝑑𝑖=0 𝑋𝑖
ο‚  Assume that 𝑋𝑖 ’s are i.i.d.
ο‚  𝑋0 = 0
ο‚  Both 𝑋 = (𝑋𝑑 : 𝑑 ∈ β„• ∪ 0 ) and 𝑀 = (𝑀𝑑 : 𝑑 ∈ β„• ∪ 0 ) are random processes
ο‚  A random/stochastic process is (vaguely) just a collection of random variables
ο‚  They could be i.i.d.
ο‚  They may be correlated—they may even have different distributions
ο‚  There is no general theory/application for random processes until more context and
structure is applied
A SIMPLE PROCESS
ο‚  Note that 𝑋𝑑 ’s are iid with 𝐸 𝑋𝑑 = .5 ∗ 1 + .5 ∗ −1 = 0
, ∀𝑑 and
Var 𝑋𝑑 = 𝐸 𝑋𝑑 2 = .5 ∗ 1
ο‚  Then 𝐸 𝑀𝑑 = 𝐸
𝑑
𝑖=0 𝑋𝑖
Var 𝑀𝑑 = Var
=
2
+ .5 ∗ −1
𝑑
𝑖=0 𝐸[𝑋𝑖 ]
𝑑
𝑖=0 𝑋𝑖
=
2
= 1, ∀𝑑
= 0 and
𝑑
𝑖=0 π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ÿ(𝑋𝑖 )
=𝑑
A SIMPLE PROCESS
ο‚  Generally, we care about the increments of a process:
𝑑
𝑀𝑑 − 𝑀𝑠 =
𝑋𝑖
𝑖=𝑠+1
So that 𝐸 𝑀𝑑 − 𝑀𝑠 = 𝐸
𝑑
𝑖=𝑠+1 𝑋𝑖
= 0 , and π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ÿ 𝑀𝑑 − 𝑀𝑠 = π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ÿ
𝑑
𝑖=𝑠+1 𝑋𝑖
=𝑑−𝑠
ο‚  The symmetric random walk is defined to have independent increments
ο‚  A process X is said to have independent increments if, for 0 = 𝑑0 < 𝑑1 < … < π‘‘π‘š the increments
𝑋𝑑1 − 𝑋𝑑0 , 𝑋𝑑2 − 𝑋𝑑1 , … , π‘‹π‘‘π‘š − π‘‹π‘‘π‘š−1 are independent
QUADRATIC VARIATION
ο‚  Define the quadratic variation of a sequence 𝑋 up to time 𝑑 as [𝑋, 𝑋]𝑑
= 𝑑𝑖=1(𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋𝑖−1 )2
ο‚  This is a path-dependent measure of variation (thus it is random)
ο‚  For some unique processes, it may not be random
ο‚  For our symmetric random walk, note that a one step increment, 𝑀𝑖 − 𝑀𝑖−1 , is either 1
or −1. Thus
[𝑀, 𝑀]𝑑 =
𝑑
(𝑀𝑖 − 𝑀𝑖−1
𝑖=1
)2
=
𝑑
𝑖=1
1=𝑑
SCALED SYMMETRIC RANDOM WALK
Let π‘Š
𝑛
𝑑 =
𝑀𝑛𝑑
𝑛
be a scaled symmetric random walk
𝑛
ο‚  If 𝑛 ∗ 𝑑 is not an integer, π‘Š
integers of 𝑛 ∗ 𝑑
𝑑 is interpolated between the two neighboring
ο‚  Like a the symmetric r.w., the scaled symmetric r.w. has independent increments
ο‚ πΈπ‘Š
ο‚ 
𝑛
𝑑 −π‘Š
[π‘Š (𝑛) , π‘Š (𝑛) ]𝑑
=
𝑛
𝑠
𝑛𝑑
𝑖=1
=0
π‘Š
𝑛
π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ÿ π‘Š
𝑖
𝑛
−π‘Š
𝑛
𝑖−1
𝑛
𝑛
2
𝑑 −π‘Š
=
𝑛𝑑
𝑖=1
𝑛
𝑠
𝑋𝑖 2
𝑛
=𝑑−𝑠
=
𝑛𝑑 1
𝑖=1 𝑛
=𝑑
BROWNIAN MOTION
ο‚  By the central limit theorem π‘Š
Brownian motion
𝑛
𝑑
π‘Ž.𝑠.
π‘Š 𝑑 as 𝑛 → +∞, where π‘Š 𝑑 is a
Properties of B.M.
1) 𝑃 π‘Š 0 = 0 = 1
2) π‘Š has independent increments
3) π‘Š 𝑑 − π‘Š 𝑠 ~𝑁(0, 𝜎 2 𝑑 − 𝑠 ) for 𝑑 ≥ 𝑠 (we have been using B.M. with 𝜎 = 1)
4) 𝑃 π‘Š 𝑑 𝑖𝑠 π‘π‘œπ‘›π‘‘π‘–π‘›π‘’π‘œπ‘’π‘  = 1
BROWNIAN MOTION
Ex) What is 𝐸 π‘Š(𝑑) π‘Š(𝑠)] assuming 𝑠 ≤ 𝑑 (suppose W has parameter σ)
πΈπ‘Š 𝑑
π‘Š 𝑠 ] = 𝐸 (π‘Š(𝑑) − π‘Š 𝑠 ) + π‘Š 𝑠 π‘Š 𝑠 ]
= 𝐸 π‘Š 𝑑 − π‘Š 𝑠 ) |π‘Š 𝑠 ] + 𝐸[π‘Š(𝑠) π‘Š 𝑠 ]
=
0
+
π‘Š(𝑠) = π‘Š(𝑠)
Ex) What is π‘…π‘Š 𝑠, 𝑑 = 𝐸 π‘Š 𝑠 π‘Š(𝑑) ?
π‘…π‘Š 𝑠, 𝑑 = 𝐸 π‘Š 𝑠 π‘Š(𝑑) = 𝐸 π‘Š 𝑠 − π‘Š 0
= 𝐸
π‘Š 𝑠 −π‘Š 0
= π‘ πœŽ 2 + 0 ∗ 0 = π‘ πœŽ 2
2
+ 𝐸 π‘Š 𝑠 −π‘Š 0
π‘Šπ‘‘ − π‘Šπ‘  , π‘Šπ‘  independent
→ π‘Š is a martingale
π‘Š 𝑑 −π‘Š 𝑠 +π‘Š 𝑠 −π‘Š 0
π‘Š 𝑑 −π‘Š 𝑠
BROWNIAN MOTION
ο‚  Note that B.M. is a function and not a sequence of random
variables and so our definition of quadratic variation must be
altered:
Let 𝑃 be a partition of the interval 0, 𝑇 : 𝑑0 , 𝑑1 , … , 𝑑𝑛 with 0
= 𝑑0 < 𝑑1 < … < 𝑑𝑛 = 𝑇. Let 𝑃 = max 𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗 . For a
𝑗
function 𝑓 𝑑 , the quadratic variation of 𝑓 up to time T is
𝑓, 𝑓 𝑇 = lim
𝑃 →0
𝑛−1
𝑗=0
[𝑓 𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑓(𝑑𝑗 )]2
BROWNIAN MOTION AND QUADRATIC
VARIATION
ο‚  Note if 𝑓 has a continuous derivative,
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 [𝑓
𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑓(𝑑𝑗
)]2
Then 𝑓, 𝑓 𝑇 ≤ lim
=
𝑛−1
𝑗=0
≤
𝑃
𝑃 →0
𝑃
𝑓′
𝑛−1
𝑗=0
𝑛−1
𝑗=0
= lim 𝑃 ∗ lim
𝑃 →0
=0 ∗
𝑃 →0
𝑇 ′
|𝑓
0
2
π‘₯𝑗∗
𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗
2
𝑓 ′ π‘₯𝑗∗
𝑓′
π‘₯𝑗∗
𝑛−1
𝑗=0
2
𝑑 | 𝑑𝑑 = 0
2
2
𝑓′
(by MVT)
𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗
𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗
π‘₯𝑗∗
2
𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗
BROWNIAN MOTION AND QUADRATIC
VARIATION
ο‚  For a B.M. π‘Š(𝑑), consider the random variable π‘Š 𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
𝐸
π‘‰π‘Žπ‘Ÿ
π‘Š 𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
π‘Š 𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
− 2(𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗 ) 𝐸
2
2
= 𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗
2
=𝐸
π‘Š 𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
π‘Š 𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
2
2 −(𝑑
𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗 )
2
= 𝐸
π‘Š 𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
4
+ (𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗 )2 = 3(𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗 )2 − 2(𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗 )2 + (𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗 )2 = 𝟐(𝒕𝒋+𝟏 − 𝒕𝒋 )𝟐
BROWNIAN MOTION AND QUADRATIC
VARIATION
π‘Š 𝑑𝑗+1 −π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
. Choose 𝑛 large so that 𝑑𝑗
𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗
2
π‘Œπ‘—+1
2
𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š(𝑑𝑗 )] = 𝑇
𝑛
ο‚  Let π‘Œπ‘—+1 =
[π‘Š
ο‚  Then π‘Š, π‘Š 𝑇 = lim
lim
𝑛→∞
2
𝑛−1 π‘Œπ‘—+1
𝑗=0 𝑛
𝑃 →0
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 [π‘Š
𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š(𝑑𝑗
=
)]2
𝑗𝑇
. Then 𝑑𝑗+1
𝑛
= lim 𝑇 ∗
𝑛→∞
= 1 by LLN.
ο‚  Conclusion π‘Š, π‘Š 𝑇 = lim
𝑃 →0
ο‚  𝒅𝑾 𝒕 𝒅𝑾 = 𝒅𝒕
ο‚  Similarly, 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = 0 and π‘‘π‘Šπ‘‘π‘‘ = 0
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 [π‘Š
𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š(𝑑𝑗 )]2 = 𝑇
− 𝑑𝑗 =
2
𝑛−1 π‘Œπ‘—+1
𝑗=0 𝑛
𝑇
and thus
𝑛
= 𝑇 since
STOCHASTIC CALCULUS
ITO INTEGRAL
ο‚ 
𝑇
π‘Š
0
Let π‘Š
𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 = lim
𝑛→∞
𝑗𝑇
𝑛
𝑗𝑇
𝑛−1
π‘Š
𝑗=0
𝑛
= π‘Šπ‘— and note that
1
2
π‘Š
𝑗+1 𝑇
𝑛
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 (π‘Šπ‘—+1
−π‘Š
=
=
=
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 π‘Šπ‘—
1
2
π‘Šπ‘—+1 − π‘Šπ‘— = π‘Šπ‘›2 −
1
2
1 𝑛−1
1 𝑛−1
𝑛−1
2
2
π‘Š
−
π‘Š
π‘Š
+
π‘Š
𝑗
𝑗+1
𝑗=0
2 𝑗=0 𝑗+1
2 𝑗=0 𝑗+1
1 𝑛
1 𝑛−1
𝑛−1
2
2
π‘Š
−
π‘Š
π‘Š
+
π‘Šπ‘—+1
𝑗
𝑗+1
𝑗=1
𝑗
𝑗=0
𝑗=0
2
2
1
1 𝑛−1
1 𝑛−1
𝑛−1
2
2
π‘Šπ‘›2 +
π‘Š
−
π‘Š
π‘Š
+
π‘Šπ‘—+1
𝑗
𝑗+1
𝑗=0
𝑗
𝑗=0
𝑗=0
2
2
2
1
π‘Šπ‘›2 + 𝑛−1
π‘Šπ‘—2 − 𝑛−1
𝑗=0
𝑗=0 π‘Šπ‘— π‘Šπ‘—+1
2
1
π‘Šπ‘›2 + 𝑛−1
𝑗=0 π‘Šπ‘— π‘Šπ‘— − π‘Šπ‘—+1
2
− π‘Šπ‘— )2 =
=
Thus
𝑗𝑇
𝑛
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 (π‘Šπ‘—+1
− π‘Šπ‘— )2
ITO INTEGRAL
ο‚ 
𝑇
π‘Š
0
𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 = lim
𝑛→∞
=
𝑗𝑇
𝑛−1
π‘Š
𝑗=0
𝑛
1
lim π‘Š 2
𝑛→∞ 2
1
2
= π‘Š2 𝑇 −
𝑇 −
1
2
1
2
π‘Š
𝑛−1
𝑗=0
𝑗+1 𝑇
𝑛
π‘Š
−π‘Š
𝑗+1 𝑇
𝑛
𝑗𝑇
𝑛
−π‘Š
𝑗𝑇
𝑛
2
π‘Š, π‘Š 𝑇
Quadratic Variation
1
2
= π‘Š2 𝑇 −
1
𝑇
2
ITO’S LEMMA
ο‚  We seek an approximation 𝑓 𝑇, π‘Š 𝑇
− 𝑓 0, π‘Š 0
By Taylor’s formula we have 𝑓 𝑑𝑗+1 , π‘₯𝑗+1 − 𝑓 𝑑𝑗 , π‘₯𝑗 = 𝑓𝑑 𝑑𝑗 , π‘₯𝑗 𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗 + 𝑓π‘₯ 𝑑𝑗 , π‘₯𝑗 π‘₯𝑗+1
ITO’S LEMMA
ο‚  𝑓 𝑇, π‘Š 𝑇
+
+
− 𝑓 0, π‘Š 0
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 𝑓π‘₯ 𝑑𝑗 , π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 𝑓π‘₯𝑑 𝑑𝑗 , π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
=
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 𝑓
𝑑𝑗+1 , π‘Š 𝑑𝑗+1
π‘Š 𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š(𝑑𝑗 ) +
1
2
− 𝑓 𝑑𝑗 , π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 𝑓π‘₯π‘₯
𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗 π‘Š 𝑑𝑗+1 − π‘Š(𝑑𝑗 ) +
𝑑𝑗 , π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
1
2
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 𝑓𝑑𝑑
=
𝑛−1
𝑗=0 𝑓𝑑
𝑑𝑗 , π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
π‘Š(𝑑𝑗+1 ) − π‘Š(𝑑𝑗 )
𝑑𝑗 , π‘Š 𝑑𝑗
2
𝑑𝑗+1 − 𝑑𝑗
𝑑𝑗+1 ) − π‘Š(𝑑𝑗 )
2
ο‚  Now taking limits, lim 𝑓 𝑇, π‘Š 𝑇 − 𝑓 0, π‘Š 0 = 𝑓 𝑇, π‘Š 𝑇 − 𝑓 0, π‘Š 0
𝑛 →∞ 𝑇
𝑇
𝑇
= 0 𝑓𝑑 𝑑, π‘Š(𝑑) 𝑑𝑑 + 0 𝑓π‘₯ 𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 + 0 𝑓π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 since π‘‘π‘‘π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 = 0 and 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = 0
ο‚  In differential form, Ito’s formula is 𝑑𝑓(𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 = 𝑓𝑑 𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + 𝑓π‘₯ 𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
1
1
+ 2 𝑓π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 + 𝑓π‘₯𝑑 𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + 2 𝑓𝑑𝑑 𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
with the last two terms cancelling out to zero
ITO’S LEMMA
ο‚  Ex) Suppose 𝑓 𝑑, π‘₯ = 𝑑π‘₯ 2 . What is 𝑑𝑓(𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 )?
𝑓𝑑 𝑑, π‘₯ = π‘₯ 2
𝑓π‘₯ 𝑑, π‘₯ = 2𝑑π‘₯
𝑓π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, π‘₯ = 2𝑑
Then 𝑑𝑓 𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑
= π‘Š 2 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + 2π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 +
1
2𝑑
2
π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
2
= π‘ΎπŸ (𝒕)
ITO’S LEMMA
ο‚  Ex) Suppose 𝑓 𝑑, π‘₯ = sin 𝑑π‘₯ . What is 𝑑𝑓(𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 )?
𝑓𝑑 𝑑, π‘₯ = π‘₯ ∗ cos 𝑑π‘₯
𝑓π‘₯ 𝑑, π‘₯ = 𝑑 ∗ cos(𝑑π‘₯)
𝑓π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, π‘₯ = −𝑑 2 ∗ sin 𝑑π‘₯
Then 𝑑𝑓 𝑑, π‘Š 𝑑 = (π‘₯ ∗ cos 𝑑π‘₯ )𝑑𝑑 + 𝑑 ∗ cos 𝑑π‘₯ π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 +
∗ 𝐜𝐨𝐬 𝒕𝒙 − π’•πŸ ∗ 𝐬𝐒𝐧 𝒕𝒙 )𝒅𝒕 + 𝒕 ∗ 𝐜𝐨𝐬 𝒕𝒙 𝒅𝑾 𝒕
−𝑑 2
∗ sin 𝑑π‘₯
π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
2
= (𝒙
ITO’S LEMMA
ο‚  More generally, if 𝑋 𝑑 is a stochastic process
𝑑𝑓 𝑑, 𝑋 𝑑
1
= 𝑓𝑑 𝑑, 𝑋 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + 𝑓π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑋 𝑑 𝑑𝑋 𝑑 + 𝑓π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑋 𝑑
2
𝑑𝑋 𝑑
2
We have been using Ito’s formula to construct stochastic differential equations (SDE’s)—that is,
differential equations with a random term.
Consider the SDE: 𝑑𝑋 𝑑 = 𝜎 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 + 𝛼 𝑑 −
If 𝑆 𝑑 = 𝑆 0 exp 𝑋 𝑑 , what is 𝑑𝑆(𝑑)?
1 2
𝜎 (𝑑)
2
𝑑𝑑
ITO’S LEMMA
ο‚  Here, 𝑆 𝑑 = 𝑓 𝑑, π‘₯ = 𝑆 0 exp π‘₯
ο‚  Note that this is actually just a function of a single variable x
𝑓𝑑 𝑑, π‘₯ = 0
𝑓π‘₯ 𝑑, π‘₯ = 𝑆 0 exp{π‘₯}
𝑓π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, π‘₯ = 𝑆 0 exp{π‘₯}
Then 𝑑𝑆 𝑑 = 𝑆 0 𝑒 𝑋
𝑑
𝑑𝑋 𝑑 +
1
𝑆
2
0 𝑒𝑋
𝑑
𝑑𝑋 𝑑
2
ITO’S LEMMA
ο‚  Note that 𝑑𝑋 𝑑
2
= 𝜎 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 + 𝛼 𝑑 −
1 2
𝜎
2
𝑑
𝑑𝑑
2
=
𝜎2
𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
2
+ 2𝜎 𝑑 𝛼 𝑑
BLACK-SCHOLES EQUATION
BLACK-SCHOLES
ο‚  Let the underlying follow this SDE with constant rate and volatility: 𝑑𝑆 𝑑 = 𝛼𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + πœŽπ‘† 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
ο‚  The only variable inputs to an options price are the time until maturity and the price of the stock, so
we start by considering the function
𝑐(𝑑, 𝑆(𝑑))
Ito’s formula tells us 𝑑𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
= 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑆 𝑑 +
1
1
𝑐
2 π‘₯π‘₯
𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑆 𝑑
= 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 (𝛼𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + πœŽπ‘† 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑 ) + 𝑐π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 𝜎 2 𝑆 2 𝑑 𝑑𝑑
2
1 2
= 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 + 𝛼𝑆 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 + 𝜎 𝑑 𝑆 2 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + πœŽπ‘†(𝑑)𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š(𝑑)
2
BLACK SCHOLES
ο‚  We need to take the present value of this so we consider the function:
𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑐(𝑑, 𝑆(𝑑))
= −π‘Ÿπ‘’ −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑑𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
1
= 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ −π‘Ÿπ‘ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 + 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 + 𝛼𝑆 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 + 𝜎 2 𝑑 𝑆 2 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
2
−π‘Ÿπ‘‘
+ 𝑒 πœŽπ‘†(𝑑)𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š(𝑑)
Again, by Ito’s formula 𝑑𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
𝑑𝑑
BLACK SCHOLES
ο‚  Meanwhile, we try to replicate the option contract as we did in the binomial option pricing model. That is, by
investing some money in a stock position and some in some money market account (a bond):
ο‚  Let 𝑋 𝑑 be the value of our portfolio at time 𝑑
ο‚  At time 𝑑 we invest a necessary amount βˆ† 𝑑 into the stock and the remainder, 𝑋 𝑑 − βˆ†(𝑑), into the money
market instrument.
ο‚  Then we gain βˆ† 𝑑 𝑑𝑆(𝑑) from our investment in the stock
ο‚  And π‘Ÿ 𝑋 𝑑 − βˆ† 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 from our investment in the money market instrument
ο‚  Thus 𝑑𝑋 𝑑 = βˆ† 𝑑 𝑑𝑆 𝑑 + π‘Ÿ 𝑋 𝑑 − βˆ† 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 = βˆ† 𝑑 𝛼𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + πœŽπ‘† 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
ο‚  By Ito’s lemma, the differential of the PV(stock) is 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑆 𝑑
+ π‘Ÿ 𝑋 𝑑 − βˆ† 𝑑 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑
= 𝛼 − π‘Ÿ 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + πœŽπ‘’ −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑆 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
ο‚  Likewise, the differential of our discounted portfolio is 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑋 𝑑
+ βˆ† 𝑑 πœŽπ‘’ −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑆 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
= βˆ† 𝑑 𝛼 − π‘Ÿ 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑
BLACK SCHOLES
ο‚  At each time 𝑑, we want the replicating portfolio 𝑋 𝑑 to match the value of the option 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
ο‚  We do this by ensuring that 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑋 𝑑
= 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
βˆ† 𝑑 𝛼 − π‘Ÿ 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + βˆ† 𝑑 πœŽπ‘’ −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑆 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
= 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ −π‘Ÿπ‘ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+ 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+ 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ πœŽπ‘†(𝑑)𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š(𝑑)
+ π‘Ÿπ‘† 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+
for all 𝑑 and that 𝑋 0 = 𝑐 0, 𝑆 0 :
1 2
𝜎 𝑑 𝑆 2 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
2
𝑑𝑑
BLACK SCHOLES
ο‚  At each time 𝑑, we want the replicating portfolio 𝑋 𝑑 to match the value of the option 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
ο‚  We do this by ensuring that 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑋 𝑑
= 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
βˆ† 𝑑 𝛼 − π‘Ÿ 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + βˆ† 𝑑 πœŽπ‘† 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
= −π‘Ÿπ‘ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+ 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+ 𝛼𝑆 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+
for all 𝑑 and that 𝑋 0 = 𝑐 0, 𝑆 0 :
1 2
𝜎 𝑑 𝑆 2 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
2
𝑑𝑑 + πœŽπ‘†(𝑑)𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š(𝑑)
BLACK-SCHOLES
ο‚  At each time 𝑑, we want the replicating portfolio 𝑋 𝑑 to match the value of the option 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
ο‚  We do this by ensuring that 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑋 𝑑
= 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
βˆ† 𝑑 𝛼 − π‘Ÿ 𝑆 𝑑 𝑑𝑑 + βˆ† 𝒕 πˆπ‘Ί 𝒕 𝒅𝑾 𝒕
= −π‘Ÿπ‘ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+ 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+ 𝛼𝑆 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
Need βˆ† 𝒕 πˆπ‘Ί 𝒕 = πˆπ‘Ί 𝒕 𝒄𝒙 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕
+
for all 𝑑 and that 𝑋 0 = 𝑐 0, 𝑆 0 :
1 2
𝜎 𝑑 𝑆 2 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
2
→ βˆ† 𝒕 = 𝒄𝒙 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕
𝑑𝑑 + πˆπ‘Ί(𝒕)𝒄𝒙 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕 𝒅𝑾(𝒕)
BLACK-SCHOLES
ο‚  At each time 𝑑, we want the replicating portfolio 𝑋 𝑑 to match the value of the option 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
ο‚  We do this by ensuring that 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑋 𝑑
= 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
βˆ† 𝒕 𝜢 − 𝒓 𝑺 𝒕 𝒅𝒕 + βˆ† 𝑑 πœŽπ‘† 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
= −𝒓𝒄 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕
+ 𝒄𝒕 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕
+ πœΆπ‘Ί 𝒕 𝒄𝒙 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕
Need βˆ† 𝑑 πœŽπ‘† 𝑑 = πœŽπ‘† 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+
for all 𝑑 and that 𝑋 0 = 𝑐 0, 𝑆 0 :
𝟏 𝟐
𝝈 𝒕 π‘ΊπŸ 𝒕 𝒄𝒙𝒙 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕
𝟐
𝒅𝒕 + πœŽπ‘†(𝑑)𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š(𝑑)
→ βˆ† 𝑑 = 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
1
Needβˆ† 𝑑 𝛼 − π‘Ÿ 𝑆 𝑑 = −π‘Ÿπ‘ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 + 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 + 𝛼𝑆 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 + 2 𝜎 2 𝑑 𝑆 2 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
BLACK-SCHOLES
ο‚  At each time 𝑑, we want the replicating portfolio 𝑋 𝑑 to match the value of the option 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
ο‚  We do this by ensuring that 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑋 𝑑
= 𝑑 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑐 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
βˆ† 𝒕 𝜢 − 𝒓 𝑺 𝒕 𝒅𝒕 + βˆ† 𝑑 πœŽπ‘† 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š 𝑑
= −𝒓𝒄 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕
+ 𝒄𝒕 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕
+ πœΆπ‘Ί 𝒕 𝒄𝒙 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕
Need βˆ† 𝑑 πœŽπ‘† 𝑑 = πœŽπ‘† 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
Need 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
𝟏 𝟐
𝝈 𝒕 π‘ΊπŸ 𝒕 𝒄𝒙𝒙 𝒕, 𝑺 𝒕
𝟐
𝒅𝒕 + πœŽπ‘†(𝑑)𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑 π‘‘π‘Š(𝑑)
→ βˆ† 𝑑 = 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
𝛼 − π‘Ÿ 𝑆 𝑑 = −π‘Ÿπ‘ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
Simplifying this we need, π‘Ÿπ‘ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+
for all 𝑑 and that 𝑋 0 = 𝑐 0, 𝑆 0 :
+ 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
= 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+ 𝛼𝑆 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+ π‘Ÿπ‘† 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
1
+
1 2
𝜎
2
𝑑 𝑆 2 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+ 2 𝜎 2 𝑑 𝑆 2 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
BLACK-SCHOLES
π‘Ÿπ‘ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
With
= 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
+ π‘Ÿπ‘† 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
1
+ 𝜎 2 𝑆 2 𝑑 𝑐π‘₯π‘₯ 𝑑, 𝑆 𝑑
2
∀𝑑 ∈ 0, 𝑇 , π‘₯ ≥ 0
𝑐 𝑇, π‘₯ = max{π‘₯ − 𝐾, 0}
Is the Black-Scholes-Merton partial differential equation. Its is a backward parabolic equation, which are known to
have solutions. Using the fact that, 𝑐𝑑 𝑑, 0 = π‘Ÿπ‘ 𝑑, 0 , we solve this ODE: 𝑐 𝑑, 0 = 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ 𝑐 0,0 = 𝑒 −π‘Ÿπ‘‘ ∗ 0 = 0. This
gives us our first boundary condition at π‘₯ = 0:
𝑐 𝑑, 0 = 0, ∀𝑑
Additionally, lim 𝑐 𝑑, π‘₯ − π‘₯ − 𝑒 −π‘Ÿ
π‘₯→∞
𝑇−𝑑
𝐾
= 0, ∀𝑑 ∈ 0, 𝑇
That is, the fact that as the underlying approaches ∞, the call option begins to look like the underlying minus the
discounted strike. This serves as the second boundary condition.
BLACK-SCHOLES
ο‚  Solving the Black-Scholes-Merton PDE gives us the familiar results:
𝑆, 𝑑 = 𝑁 𝑑1 𝑆 − 𝑁 𝑑2 𝐾𝑒 −π‘Ÿ(𝑇−𝑑)
𝑃 𝑆, 𝑑 = 𝑁 −𝑑2 𝐾𝑒 −π‘Ÿ(𝑇−𝑑) − 𝑁 −𝑑1 𝑆
1
𝑆
𝑑1 =
∗ 𝑙𝑛
+
𝐾
𝜎 𝑇−𝑑
1
𝑆
𝑑2 =
∗ 𝑙𝑛
+
𝐾
𝜎 𝑇−𝑑
𝜎2
π‘Ÿ+
2
𝜎2
π‘Ÿ−
2
𝑇−𝑑
𝑇−𝑑
𝑁 π‘₯ is the
standard-normal
CDF of x
BLACK-SCHOLES
ο‚  Why doesn’t this method work for American options?
ο‚  Early exercise is not modeled!
ο‚  Pros
ο‚  Gives an analytical (no algorithms necessary!) solution to the value of a European option
ο‚  This is simple enough to be extended
ο‚  The resulting PDE’s can be solved numerically
ο‚  Cons
 Some unrealistic assumptions about rates and volatilities does not match data
 Normal distribution has thin tales under-approximates large returns in stocks
THANK YOU!
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ο‚  Email: uiuc.fec@gmail.com
President
Greg Pastorek
gfpastorek@gmail.com
Internal Vice President
Matthew Reardon
mreardon5@gmail.com
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