Broadband Wireless Access Indonesia Peluang dan Tantangan Willy Sabry Alcatel-Lucent Indonesia +62 815 830 1036 Willy.sabry@alcatel-lucent.com September 2, 2010 Agenda 1. Broadband in Indonesia 2. Technology choice and network economy 3. Summary All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 1. Broadband In Indonesia Objectives DGPT Study Group 4G Mastel RPJMN (2014) 1. Increase penetration ICT for prosperity and welfare 1. Internet penetration: 50% 2. Affordability 1. Increase penetration 2. Broadband: 30% 3. Drive National Industry 2. Affordability & quality service 3. Digital TV program: 35% 4. Optimum spectrum value 3. Effective public services 4. Backbone main islands: 100% 4. Reduce social inequality 5. Broadband for cities / regency capital: 75% BROADBAND Users expectation: Coverage, Services/Quality, Affordability Why Broadband: National Infrastructure, knowledge based society, 1.3% PDB increase for every 10% broadband penetration increase, National Competitiveness index All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Broadband in Indonesia Today Extreme Rural Dense Urban • Land Area: 1.9m km2, 17,508 islands • 240 million Population • 33 provinces, 500 cities / regency capital • 6000 municipal • 70000 villages • 62 million household Rural Urban Suburban Broadband Services today: • In Dense urban / Urban area, ~ 30 cities. • Penetration: 1% WBB, 0.7% FBB, 4% PC (household basis), 68% Mobile phone • HSPA, EVDO, WiMAX, DSL, PON, HFC • Best effort Source: Pyramid, ALU All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Broadband in Indonesia Expectation & Challenges Extreme Rural Dense Urban Rural Urban Suburban Broadband for All Expectation: • Coverage (30%-40% area) • Services/ Quality (voice-data-multimedia / best effort - QoE guaranteed ubiquitous) • Affordability (most competitive in the region) All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Challenges: • Technology / solution mix: access/backbone, wireline / wireless, FO / radio • Economic: PNBP vs PDB increase / National infrastructure / ICT fund • Regulation / Industry Structure Coverage … with the right technology mix being a combination of fixed & wireless Extreme Rural Dense Urban Rural Urban Suburban Note: Sample cost model Australia Wireline (eg FTTx, DSL, GPON) and Wireless (LTE, HSPA, EVDO, WIMAX) Wireless technologies at low frequency bands (eg LTE, HSPA, EVDO) Wireline complements Wireless in Urban Areas Satellite Rural area more suitable with Wireless transport network – FO backbone, combination FO/MW backhaul All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Coverage … although mobile is the preferred broadband technology in emerging markets, it will eventually need to be completed with fixed technologies Broadband Bandwidth per user (Mbps) DVB Density (users/sqkm) 0,1 2 8 16 64 100 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 SD TV 1 Wireless only 2 5 HD TV 7,5 10 12,5 Wireless + Satellite 200 Fibre + FTTN 400 800 DSL CO + LTE/WiMAX/FTTN 1000 • • • Mobile Broadband is a quick and easy approach to address broadband demand – but limited to maximum throughput Fixed technologies scale better for high density areas and greater bandwidth demand Optimum solution is a combination of multiple technologies All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Service / Quality Broadband for socio economic development Residential Services Metros Metropolitan Security High-Speed Internet VPN, Web services Unified communications Collaboration tools Mobility and teleworking Campus and building surveillance Hospitality Utility metering Cloud computing Symmetrical, Business Critical / SLG, Ubiquitous Symmetrical, Business Critical / SLG Asymmetrical High-speed Internet Video conference / telephony over IP IPTV (Interactive TV, 3D TV, Web TV) Home surveillance, Home automation Fixed-mobile convergence Social Networking Public Services Business Services Information Public safety Closed-circuit TV Emergency e-learning e-healthcare e-social care e-administration One-stopadministration portal Highways Buses Ports (Container tracking) All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 High-Voltage pôles Utilities Data Acquisition & control Oil & Gaz (Dwelling) Affordability Development synergy Investment (%) 100% Retail, Service applications, Network, infra resources Access to public infrastructure Market Driven e.g. Tier 1 cities Retail, service applications Retail, Service applications, Network Network & IP Wholesale Optional: IP Wholesale Optional: Dark fiber roll-out Dark fiber roll out and renting Labeling / Pre cabling Gov’t / Public Labeling / Pre cabling Sector Access to public infrastructure Buildof Primary infra Risk Driven Policy Driven e.g. Tier 2 & suburban e.g. rural BSO ICT fund NBN ??? Halaman 10 Private Sector All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Area types Affordability Infrastructure / Network Sharing, Services Competition End-user Retail Services (residential, public & business) Active Network (network equipments, business & operation support) Passive Infrastructure (tower, sites, trenches, ducts, fibre) Services competition Infrastructure / Network sharing Halaman 11 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 2. Technology choice and network economy End-to-end Broadband Wireless Access Next-gen Wireless Broadband – Exploit QoE for effective Services Radio Access Network Evolved Packet Core •2/3/G, LTE (Large & Small Cell), WiMAX, Satellite •S-GW, P-GW •MME, PCRF •FTTx, MetroE Access access Backhaul / aggregation Core / Edge MME BTS 2G+3G+LTE SGW 2G/3G Core (Circuit & Packet) SDE OSS/BSS Subs.Data Mgmt PCRF PGW Backbone transport IP/MPLS SDP: IMS, Mobile TV optics Transport Service Delivery Environment •Aggregation / Backhaul • IMS, SDP, OSS/BSS, payment and security •Backbone All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Broadband Wireless Access technology is converging toward LTE A common evolution path… GSM/UMTS HSPA+ GSM/EDGE UMTS/HSPA+ …highly efficient technologies L GSM/EDGE TD-SCDMA T 1xRTT OFDM MIMO Flat IP Robust modulation Increased link capacity Flat, scalable E 1x/Do-R.A 1x/Do-R.A 3G B/A+ WIMAX 700 MHz 5MHz 10MHz 4G Operating bandwidth options TDD / FDD LTE bandwidth options, highly Spectrum efficient 1.4MHz 3MHz “3.9G” 850 MHz 900 MHz 1.9/2.1 GHz 2.1 GHz 2.3 GHz 20MHz QoE guaranteed - Multiservices All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Eco-system – NGMN, LSTI 2.6 GHz Impact of signal strength and concurrent users to throughput …performance by throughput per subscriber instead of peak BW per BS – network design & dimensioning is critical Halaman 15 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Impact of standards & frequency on network economy 2500 Mhz band require 4.5 X higher capex than 700 MHz band 800 MHz 12 1500% 1400% 10 1230% 1300% 8.9 Typical Cell Ranges for LTE show a significant advantage of using lower frequencies Better indoor penetration Relative Capex (%) 1200% 10 1100% 8 1000% 900% 800% 5.5 4.7 700% 675% 6 3.9 600% 455% 500% 2.9 4 328% 400% 300% 200% Cell Radius (km) 2.6 GHz Relative CAPEX and typical cell radius to cover a certain area in suburban environment as a function of the frequency band used for deployment 100% 126% 700 MHz 850 MHz 2 100% 0 0% 1900 MHz 2500 MHz 3500 MHz 5800 MHz Frequency Deployment Source: Business case summary for NGMN - Milan Sallaba All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Wireless device reality for 2009-2014 LTE device overall price trend LTE/HSPA/GSM Multi mode LTE Single Mode Device Categories Handsets Targeted Timeline - June2011 - $344 CPEs Targeted Timeline - March2011 - $220 $140 $220 USB Sticks / Modems $150 $124 Targeted Timeline - March2011 - $200 $150 PCI Express $105 (Embedded modules) Targeted Timeline - March2011 - $183 $138 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Estimated Price Range Initial Trends as of February 2010 Price decrease for entry range products expected in 2011 due to economic of scale All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 3. Summary Broadband for All Broadband for prosperity and welfare Coverage a holistic Network and Economic Analysis would be necessary Service / Quality Residential Services Public Services Business Services High-Speed Internet VPN, Web services Unified communications Collaboration tools Mobility and teleworking Campus and building surveillance Hospitality Utility metering Cloud computing Symmetrical, Business Critical / SLG, Ubiquitous Symmetrical, Business Critical / SLG Asymmetrical High-speed Internet Video conference / telephony over IP IPTV (Interactive TV, 3D TV, Web TV) Home surveillance, Home automation Fixed-mobile convergence Social Networking Affordability Information Public safety Closed-circuit TV Emergency e-learning e-healthcare e-social care e-administration One-stopadministration portal BSO ICT fund NBN ??? Metros Metropolita n Security Highwa ys Buses Ports (Conta iner tra cking) High- Volta ge pôles Utilities Da ta Acquisition & control Oil & Ga z (Dwelling) All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Services competition Infrastructure / Network sharing Broadband Wireless Access Right choice of BWA technology would benefit Indonesia All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010 www.alcatel-lucent.com Pemakaian frequensi TV Broadcast di Indonesia 45 40 35 30 25 TV 20 15 10 5 0 BABEL JAMBI LAMPUNG RIAU SUMSEL BANTEN DKI JAKARTA JAWA TENGAH KALBAR KALTENG All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2008, XXXXX BALI NTT SULSEL SULTRA IRJABAR MALUKU UTARA