Climate Change Early Warning Systems for Rift Valley Fever
Pandemic Preparedness in Kenya
Nanyingi M O
Department of Public Health, Pharmacology and Toxicology
University of Nairobi
KENYA
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25,2012
Climate Change Impacts in Kenya
In 2006 and 2007, PH
Burden of RVF OB resulted
in 3.4 DALYs per 1000
people and household
costs of about Ksh 10,000
(USD120)
3%GDP loss
$500M/(2012)
$1-2 B(2030)
2
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25,2012
Disease Early Warning Systems (DEWS)
MEWS (MODIS_NDVI)
HEALTH MAPPER
Are these tools available universally and utilized adequately?
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
RVF Contingency plans for EWS in Kenya (ongoing)
Linkage with communities to monitor climatic parameters.
 Precipitation ,flooding and mapping of “dambos”

 Remote
sensing and GIS data(NDVI of 0.43-0.45/ SST by 0.5 degrees )
epidemic indicative
Community-Based Early Warning System (CB-LEWS)
 DVS trains communities to capture data relevant for RVF early

warning.

Monitoring of vector Dynamics and virus activity in sentinel herds?
 Farmer
and public
Communications Officer.

awareness
programmes
by
Veterinary
Community radios ,flyers and mobile phones for preparedness.
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Stakeholders in Climate Sensitive Diseases
Government
Veterinary ,Public Health, Agriculture,Met
Universities,Research Institutions
Vulnerable Communities
CAPACITY BUILDING
Risk Assessment
Lab Diagnosis
Information MS
Simulation Exercise
ONE HEALTH
COORDINATION
DISEASE CONTROL
Community Sentinel Surveillance
 Vaccinations and Vector Control
COMMUNICATION
System Appraisal strategy
Participatory message devt (FGD)
Media Engagement(Radio, TV)
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Research: RVF Spatiotemporal Epidemiology
Participatory
Epidemiology:
Rural
appraisal and Community EWS to RVF
investigated.

 Sero-monitoring
of sentinel herds and
Geographical risk mapping of RVF hotspots?
Trans-boundary Surveillance for secondary
foci(Neighboring country)

Disease burden Analysis and predictive
modeling

 Decision
support tools for community
utilization(Risk maps, brochures, radio and
video clips)
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Community Involvement
Disease surveillance Committees
(Animal health workers +Livestock
keepers + Veterinary /Public health
officers)

Community mapping of watering
Points/Dams or “Dambos”


Training of trainers(TOT) on EWS
Information feedback mechanisms (
Schools, churches, village meetings)


Tran-sboundary security committees
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
RVF Monitoring and Surveillance -Community Model
e-surveillance
Aanansen et al., 2009, Madder et al., 2012

Community sensitization/awareness by Syndromic surveillance (Mobile phones)

Dissemination of Information through community vernacular radio,SMS
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Communication tools : Risk Maps of RVF in Kenya
Bett et al.,2012
 Is
there Geographical restriction of the Diseases?
What other factors
are involved in endemicity of RVF?
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Further secondary data analysis for RVF prediction
Precipitation and Temperature from the Kenya Meteorological
Department/ECMWF for time series analysis (2000-2011)

 Sero-prevalence
and inter-epidemic estimates of RVF from the
Department of Veterinary Services.
 Disease
burden analysis using demographics from Human National
Census
 Vegetative
Index (NDVI) and Soil type cover for suitability of vector
analysis.
 Process
based geographical risk modeling and Linear regression
analysis for RVF distribution
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Outbreak Maps of RVF in Kenya –(1912-2010)
Response
targeted.

can
be
geographically
Vaccine allocation and distribution is
site specific(cost saving mechanism)

 Secondary
foci of outbreaks in semiurban locations.
 Controlled
Bett et al.,2012
Human and Animal migration
to curb the spread of climate sensitive
diseases
Post Vaccination sero-monitoring(
AVID)
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Climate EWS Caveats in Kenya
Lack of capacity and expertise to contextualize climate change
sensitive disease predictions and scenarios.

 Dysfunctional communication channels (Technological
inadequacies in rural communities)
 Transboundary
armed conflicts (Pastoral cattle rustling)
 Financial Constraints in
Climate Change Research(Parsimony??)
 Ethno-Religious Barriers
 Ineffective
 Lack of
government policies on climate sensitive Diseases
efficient infrastructure(roads, electricity)
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Beneficiaries of Climate Early Risk Assessment
Government
ministries
Affected
Communities
Non Govt.
Partners
Research
institutes
Schools
Universities
Donors
(Data)
Sustainable planning and decision making tools to support the development
of appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.

Simulation exercises to test response to RVF epizootic and strengthen
working between veterinary, medical, and entomological sectors.

World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Contributions to EWS in Kenya: Stakeholders Capacity and Networks
 Zoonoses Working Group
has been established (One Health concept).-CDC
Linking expert institutions through global networks within both the animal
and health sectors

Improvements in governance, infrastructure and capacity building will also
prove valuable to secure the livelihoods of vulnerable populations.

 Participatory
approaches : Farmer Field Schools and livestock owners’
training on climate change for zoonoses preparedness and prevention.
Improved surveillance, early detection and timely diagnosis, transparency
of animal disease information

Rapid
response to outbreaks as well as the potential use of the network
approach in providing data for studies related to climate sensitive diseases.
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Acknowledgements
Data and Financial Support
Contributing Authors
Bett B, International Livestock
Research Institute, Kenya

Thumbi SM,
Edinburgh, UK

University
of
Project Advisors
Kiama SG, Wangari Maathai
Institute, University of Nairobi

Muchemi GM, Department of
Public Health, Pharmacology and
Toxicology University of Nairobi

World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012