The ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Reinforcing Institutional Capacity for Timely Food Security Emergency Response to Slow Onset Crises at Scale ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Why do we need this? ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Research shows us that: • Lack of clear and predictive livelihood and market analysis, so responses aren’t appropriate or adequate • Contingency planning lacks a robust understanding of livelihoods and markets, with few indicators about who needs to act and when; • Little formal response analysis takes place, and does not focus on an overall analysis of needs; • Traditional situation analysis begins post-shock, too late to conduct a response analysis that enables people to protect their livelihoods. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework What does the SRAF consist of? Critical features of the Situation and Response Analysis Framework: • SRAF is part of emergency preparedness and contingency planning. • SRAF is an on-going process. • SRAF addresses how interventions or the work of any single agency fits into the larger picture of what other agencies, national governments and local communities themselves are doing. • SRAF causal factors as well as the outcomes themselves of any given situation. The SRAF was developed embracing the following approaches: • Household Economic Analysis (HEA) • Market system analysis • Early analysis • Repeated analysis • Transparent analysis and planning ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework SRAF Objectives SRAF is designed to support better short-term responses to slow-onset food security crises. Better means, • Early: to protect assets • Appropriate: to peoples livelihoods • Proportionate: to need ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework ERC SRAF Guiding Principles • Timing is Critical: we need to analyse, prepare and respond early to protect lives and livelihoods • Understanding people: it is necessary to understand livelihoods, the markets they depend on and the impact of a crisis thereon • Rapid Funding Mechanisms: understand the resources required, to take appropriate action and release funds before a crisis peaks • Responses based on need: supporting early, context-appropriate, short-term responses to meet needs and mitigate impacts • Repeat, repeat, repeat: response analysis must be iterative to be relevant • An adaptive framework: the framework can be used by government, donors, UN agencies, NGOs The Framework ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Monitoring of hazard, livelihood and market parameters The traditional approach Forecasts of hazard Shock Needs Assessment Analysis Planning Action Immediate Food Assistance ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework The SRAF Monitoring of hazard, livelihood and market parameters Contingency funds Background review; historical data Baseline Assessment Livelihood Assessment Forecasts of hazard Market Assessment Analysing the impact of different shocks; quantify needs & geographic focus Early Analysis Develop Strategic Priorities Update Scenarios & Contingency Plan Identify response options, start up times and key milestones Early Planning Shock Early Action Engagement with communities, government, donors, UN, NGOs and private sector Timely and appropriate humanitarian assistance in the short-medium term Reducing vulnerability and contributing to resilience building in the medium-long term ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework What this means: a timeline Traditional Approach Short Rains Assessment Jan–Feb 2014 SHORT RAINS Short Rains Forecast Sep 2013 Sep 2013 Situation Analysis Feb 2014 Nov – Dec 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 2 MONTH LEAD The SRAFSRAF Response Lead Response March–April 2014 Mar 2014 ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework When to use the SRAF When and where the SRAF is valuable Requirement for quantitative and detailed evidence for interventions, responses, programme design is a priority. Detailed data at household and local level is available to conduct detailed analysis of food and income gap. Participation of local stakeholders including government is secured. Contexts where shocks are repeated and predictable through forecasts. Particularly slow onset crises such as drought Commitment to Technical prerequisites: - HEA is available or will be conducted - PCMMA is available or will be conducted Programming aims to embrace principles of market based approaches. Funding commitment exists to a) repeatedly run the response analysis and b) intervene early when evidence ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Baseline Assessments: the two pillars Market analysis Livelihood Analysis Pre-crisis Market Mapping and Analysis (PCMMA) Household Economy Analysis Rapid Household Economy Analysis ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Pre-Crisis Market Mapping and Analysis ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework The Household Economy Approach ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework The HEA Dashboard ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Early Analysis Process Step A: Map livelihoods calendar Step B: Develop detailed scenario modelling Early Analysis Step C: Determine strategic objectives Identify Hazard, Livelihoods And Market Monitoring Parameters ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step A: Map Livelihoods Calendar • • • • • • Changes in the quantities of households key sources of food, income and expenditure Changes in the price of households key sources of food, income and expenditure Changes in Non-food factors such as Water, Health, Nutrition, Education Changes in Prices and Quantities used as an input for developing scenarios in Step B Changes in Non-food factors are used to develop Strategic Objectives in Step C Changes in Market Chain, Market Environment and Infrastructure and Services CASE STUDY: Marsabit Water Access One of the scenarios considered during a Response Analysis workshop in Marsabit, Kenya in October 2013 was “Below Average Short Rains” in November and December. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step B: Develop detailed scenarios • To quickly model the impact of a forecast hazard you will need to use the HEA Dashboard for the rapid development of quantified scenarios in the SRAF. o The population of the Livelihood Zones o Projected Changes in Prices and Quantities from the Crisis Calendar developed in Step A o Price Data for the Reference Year • The projected changes in household’s sources of food, income and expenditure can be summarized in the Key Parameters template. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step C: Determine Strategic Objectives Using the results worksheet of your HEA Dashboard developed in Step B, you should develop strategic objectives that address the projected needs in the scenario developed in Step B. These projected needs can be different for different wealth groups and whether they face aforsurvival livelihoods deficit. of Highland & Midland Zones Table 1: Scenarios May 2014 or - April 2015: Total Population Scenario 1: Poor Rains Wealth Group Very Poor Poor Middle BetterOff Scenario 2: Food Prices Increases (100%) TOTAL Very Poor Survival Deficit Population facing a Deficit HH Deficit Total Deficit Poor Total Deficit IPC MLL Phase: IPC HLA Phase: 95,000 0 0 0 95,000 95,000 335,000 0 0 430,000 0 0 0 13,000 HH 13,000 HH 48,000 HH 0 0 61,000 HH YER 85,000 0 0 0 YER 57,000 YER 30,000 0 0 £3m 0 0 0 £3m £2m £4m 0 0 0 YER 1,160m YER 780m YER 1,410m 0 0 95,000 335,000 0 0 430,000 0 0 61,000 HH 13,000 HH 48,000 HH YER 15,000 YER 7,000 £40 £20 £600,000 0 0 £950,000 0 0 £1.5m YER 225m YER 345m 0 0 YER 570m 4 2 1 1 1 1 Ve 95,000 0 YE £ 6m YER 2,190m 335,000 0 0 430,000 0 0 61,000 HH 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 13,000 HH 48,000 HH YER 10,000 YER 10,000 £400k £1.3m YER 135m YER 485m 3 3 £4.5m 1 0 13 Y Livelihood Deficit 2 1 1 1 TOTAL Survival Deficit Livelihood Deficit HH Deficit Better -Off 13,000 HH YER 1,160m Population facing a Deficit Middle grey shading indicates a deficit of less than 1 month 1 1 1 1 YE £1.7m YER 620m £7.7m 3 1 13 Y ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Early Planning Process Step D: Select appropriate interventions Step E: Identify agency priorities and parameters Early Planning Step F: Map start-up timelines and prepare Communicate to partners, communities and donors Monitor hazard, livelihood and market parameters – and refine models and update plans ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step D: Select Appropriate Interventions ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step E: Identify Agency Priorities and Parameters Using the selected interventions, analyse what your agency has implement over the past 3 or 4 years, and what is currently being implemented by other agencies in the area. Objective and Interventions Agency Strategic Partner To protect prime shoats from loss or stress sales (prime breeding stocks) of 65,000 very poor and poor Agro-pastoralists for 6 months (November to April) 1. Livestock feeding 1. Livestock vaccination campaigns 1. Strategic deworming 1. Destocking 1. Support District Veterinary office in management and treatment of livestock diseases 1. Provision of water for the livestock ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step F: Map Start-Up Timelines and Prepare The first step in mapping your start-up timelines and decision dates is to identify the “windows of opportunity” for the interventions that you have selected for your agency. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Responses that are sustainable and foster resilient livelihoods through ongoing protection, promotion and adaptation Early Action Process React to changes in hazard, livelihood and market parameter data and re-run modelling Use timelines for decision-making processes Early Action Feed into IPC technical working groups/clusters Implement range of timely and appropriate interventions Monitor impact of activities ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework SRAF and Responding to System Challenges Discussions with operational agencies, donors and Governments revealed that improvements in livelihood analysis and contingency planning would not lead directly to early response. Early response were constrained by a series of ‘systems problems’: • Local Consensus about Livelihoods and vulnerability • Early Funding • Local Coordination • Agency Preparedness • Flexible long-term funding • Early warning: predictive and analytical ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework SRAF and Responding to System Challenges • Coordination: o The SRAF sits alongside and complements Early Warning / Early Action systems, providing predictive and timely analysis where missing and providing alternative analysis where EW/EA is absent • Funding o The SRAF can provide an ideal mechanism for determining when to release these crisis modifier funds – and where to target them. o Where early funding is not available the SRAF can provide practical, programmatic evidence that can be used to support advocacy for early funding. • Implementation plans o The SRAF process is to understand the windows of opportunity, the operations and funding start-up times and to work backwards, to understand what are the key decision points for the timely implementation of certain interventions. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework SRAF and Responding to System Challenges SRAF in action ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Pilots and Results: RA, Yemen, June 2014 • Save the Children is implementing a two-year, £10 million DFID funded project, using the Response Analysis process to prepare a Crisis Modifier Operational Plan (CMOP) for two governorates. • The process revealed that the £500,000 Crisis Modifier fund would be too low to meet needs the scenario of a food price increase. Project Beneficiaries Non Beneficiaries (Very Poor Households) Non Beneficiaries (Poor Households) Crisis Modifier Budget Scenario 1: Poor Rains £50,000 £250,000 Scenario 2: Food Prices Increases 0 £130,000 Scenario 3: Political Conflict 0 £50,000 0 £550,000 £350,000 £300,000 £680,000 £400,000 • The SRAF can therefore contribute to the design of longer-term livelihoods programs by helping to identify the vulnerability of specific populations to common hazards. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework HTTP://WWW.SRAF-GUIDELINES.ORG/