IPCC SREX Regional
Outreach Meeting
Bangkok, 4 May 2012
Regionally Focused
Case Studies
Asian Disaster
Preparedness
Center (ADPC)
Ph.D. Ravsal Oyun
Lead Author, SREX Chapter 9
Director, JEMR LLC, Mongolia
Content
1. SREX Case studies
2. Lessons from the Case studies
3. Commons in the Case studies and Conclusion
1
SREX CASE STUDY
SREX Case Studies
• Case studies contribute more focused analyses:
– in the context of human loss and damage,
– demonstrate the effectiveness of response strategies and
prevention measures
– identify lessons about success in DRR and CCA.
• Case studies were chosen to:
– complement and be consistent with the information in SREX
– demonstrate aspects of SREX key messages and HFA Priorities.
• Case studies were grouped:
– extreme events,
– vulnerable regions,
– tools
SREX Case studies
• Extreme events:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Heat wave, Europe
Hot weather, wildfire, Australia
Drought, Syria
Dzud, Mongolia
5. Tropical cyclones, Indian Ocean, Central America
6. Flood, Mozambique
7. Cholera, Zimbabwe
• Vulnerable regions:
1. Coastal megacity, Mumbai, India
2. SIDSs, Republic of the Marshall Islands
3. Cold climate, Canada’s northern regions
• Methodologies or approaches to DRR & CCA
1.
2.
3.
4.
Early warning systems;
Effective legislation;
Risk transfer in developing countries; and
Education, training, and public awareness initiatives
SREC Case studies
Regionally focused Case studies
2.
LESSONS FROM THE CASE STUDIES
Extreme heat: European heat wave of 2003, 2006
• Location:
– North America, Asia, Africa,
Australia, Europe
• Impacts, risks:
– Public health, deaths:
• Europe: 30 000 in 2003,
70 000 in 2008
• France: 14,800
• Beijing: 11,000
–
–
–
–
Damage roads and rail tracks
Increased demand for energy
Risk to power generator
Air pollutant, particulate
matter
• Projection:
– It is very likely that the length,
frequency, and/or intensity
will continue to increase
over most land areas
• DRR & CCA practices:
– Heat Warning System (HWS)
• Heat wave preparedness programs, plans
• Emergency medical service during heat wave
– Heat Action Response System:
•
•
•
•
alert protocol
community response plan
communication plan, and
evaluation plan
– Communication and education strategies:
• community-based
• offer opportunity for changing social norms
• facilitate the building of community capacity
– Adapting the urban infrastructure:
• building techniques that reduce energy
consumption
• land use modifications that increase albedo,
proportion of vegetative cover, thermal
conductivity, and emissivity in urban areas
– Assessing heat mortality
Hot Weather and Wildfires: Victoria, Australia, 2009
• Location:
– many regions of the world
• Causes:
– increase in temperature
and decrease in
precipitation
– severe droughts, heat
waves
• Impacts:
– Public health, mortality
• 980 deaths
– Damaged land:
• 430,000 ha of forests,
crops, pasture
– Destroyed businesses
• 61 businesses
– Changes in:
• Demography
• Land use
• Projection:
– Bushfire risks are likely to
increase
– Increased likelihood of
extreme fire danger days
• DRR and CCA practices:
– Government, community involvement:
• Sustainability Action Statement
• Action plan
• Heat Wave Plan
– Heat wave EWS at Melbourne
– Toolkit to assist local councils preparing for response
(in coordination with health, emergency plans)
– ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (SDLE)
– Protecting drinking water from contamination with ash,
debris
– Recoomendations:
•
•
•
•
•
revised bushfire safety policies;
increased fuel reduction burning on public lands;
community refuges established in high-risk areas;
improved coordination, communication between fire orgs;
Modify ‘Prepare, stay and defend, or leave early’ to "Prepare, act,
survive" for voluntary evacuations on extreme days;
• further ongoing investment in bushfire research
– Measures to strengthen risk management capacities:
• prior public campaigns for risk awareness;
• enhanced information and warning systems;
• translation of messages of awareness and preparedness into universal
action;
• sharing responsibility between government and the people;
• development of integrated plans; and
• greater investment in risk mitigation and adaptation actions.
Drought, Syria, 2007-2010
• Location:
– Asia, Australia,
• Impacts, consequences and risks:
– Affected
• 1.3 million people in 2011
• small-scale farmers and herders
– Agriculture, economic losses
• rain-fed, irrigated winter grain crops,
50% of wheat products
• Grassland pasture, loss of 80% of
livestock
– Ecology:
•
•
Land degradation,
Drying-up surface water resources
– Social consequences:
• Migration from rural to urban:
(between 40,000 - 60,000 families)
• Increase of price on food, animal
fodder by 75%, and transportation
• Poverty, increase debt, school
children drop-out
• Increase competition for scarce
resources, (water) ethnic tensions,
conflicts
•
DRR and CAA practices:
– Government intervention with Drought Response Plan
• distribution of wheat, barley, and legume seeds to affected
households
• sustaining the remaining asset base of herders by providing
animal feed and limited sheep restocking;
• development of drought EWS
• building capability to implement the nat. drought strategy.
– Provision of International humanitarian assistance
– Loans to affected farmers, women entrepreneurs
– Decentralization of resources, community
participation
– Drought risk loss insurance;
– Improved water use efficiency
•
•
•
•
Adopting, adapting water harvesting techniques;
integrating use of surface and groundwater;
upgrading irrigation practices of use and supply sides
production systems into higher value and more efficient
water use options
– Adapting agriculture:
• developing crops tolerant to salinity and heat stress,
diversifying, changing cropping patterns;
• altering the timing or location of cropping activities;
– Capacity building in vulnerable areas
Dzud* Disaster, Mongolia 2000, 2010
• Location:
• DRR and CAA practices:
– Mongolia
• Causes:
– Summer drought, autumn
snowfall and unusual warmth
with ice cover, winter extreme
cold, snowfall, spring windstorm
– Damage to pasture by rodents
and insects
– Inadequate pasture management
and coordination,
– Lack of experience of new and/or
young herders
• Impacts, consequences:
– Livestock deaths
• 2000-2002: 12 million deaths
• 2010 8.4 million deaths
–
–
–
–
Unemployment, poverty
Migration from rural to urban
Rural people health
Overload to urban physical and
social infrastructure
* Dzud: unusually extreme weather conditions that result
in the death of a significant number of livestock over large areas
– Government and donor assisted relief:
• Distribution of money, fodder, medicine, clothes, food,
medical equipment, vegetable seeds
• Health and veterinary services,
• Capacity-building through mass media campaigns
• Using traditional informal coping methods
• Restocking program
– Livestock sector reforms
• Rivised policy
• Invetsment in rural infrastrure
• Flexibility in pasture land tenure
– National CCA strategy
• Education, awareness campaigns among the decision
makers, rural community, herders and public;
• Technology transfer to farmers and herders;
• R&D to ensure agriculture development
• improved coordination among stakeholders
– National Climate Risk Management Strategy:
• improving access to water, creating water pools
to harvest rain and flood waters;
• improving tlivestock quality, adjusting animal types
and herd structure for pasture carrying capacity;
• Strengthening veterinarian services
– For local development:
• Localized seasonal climate prediction,
improvement of early warning, establishment EWS at
local with active particpation of herders
• Formation of herders’ community groups and
establishment of pasture co-management teams
• Implementing index based risk-insuring systems
• Learning from traditional knowledge
Tropical cyclones: Bangladesh (Sidr, 2007) Myanmar (Nargis, 2008),
Central America (Stan, Wilma, 1-13 October 2005)
• Location:
– Indian Ocean (15% of world)
– Central America, Mexico,
• Impacts, consequences
– Injury, deaths (thousands)
– Ecosystem damage
– Economic loss (US$ billions)
– Agricultural production
• Projections:
– It is likely that:
• Increase TC -related rainfall
rates
• decrease or unchanged global
frequency
• increase in mean maximum
wind speed, although may not
occur in all tropical regions.
– It is more likely than not that
• increase substantially of
frequency of most intense
storms in some ocean basins
• DRR and CCA practices:
– Partnership: Gov., donors, NGOs, human orgs, community
•
•
•
•
•
•
Constructed cyclone shelters for people, livestock
Improve forecasting, warning capacity with EWS
periodic training and practices
Cyclone preparedness program (CPP)
Operational volunteer network
Coastal reforestation program
– Improve quality and effectiveness of governance:
• voice and accountability, rule of law, regulatory quality,
• participation of people at risk in decision making
– Early warning and preparedness:
• evacuation of people,
• Mobilization of heavy machines, emergency groups
– Collaborative efforts for restoration:
• water, electricity, communications, health services
• airport and tourist facilities
• Costs covered by insurance companies
– Effective disaster risk management
• social processes contribute to DRR
• involvement of people at risk
• development planning includes DRM
Flood: Mozambique, 2000, 2007
• Location:
– Africa, Asia, Europe, …
• Mozambique vulnerability
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
50% of population living in poverty
civil war, conflict with South Africa.
Rising HIV/AIDS rates,
70% female illiterate,
Most population depending on subsistence farming
2,700-km coastline subjected to cyclones and flooding
Problems: Institutional, technological, financial
• Impacts, consequences
– Deaths, homeless people
– many small towns, villages remained under water for
two months
– Vital infrastructure: access roads, railways, bridges,
safe water and sanitation facilities, dams (US$ 71
million)
– damaged health centers, schools, public buildings,
drug stocks, medical equipment
– lost 167,000 ha of agricultural land, destroyed 277,000
ha of crops
– incidence of malaria
• Projection
– likely increase in frequency of heavy precipitation over
many areas of the globe, and tropical regions in
particular
• DRR and CCA practices:
– Effective functioning of DRR
and DRM programs at all
levels
– Protecting infrastructure:
• dams and sea walls (expensive)
• urban drainage systems
– Action plan for poverty
reduction
– Master Plan to deal with
vulnerability
– Flood-safe resettlement
program (59 000 families)
– Hydrological monitoring,
Improving weather
forecasting,
– EWS as part of DRR and DRM,
evacuation
– Local centers coordinating
emergency operations.
Coastal megacities: Mumbai, India, 2005
• Vulnerability
– risk and loss are concentrated and spread through
networks of critical infrastructure, financial and resource
flows
– vulnerability is concentrated in the poorest
neighborhoods, which lack access to sanitation, health
care, transportation infrastructure, and whose homes
and possessions are unprotected by insurance
– 50 cm rise in sea level together with storm surges, would
render uninhabitable the coastal and low-lying areas
where many of informal settlements are located.
• Impacts, consequences, risks
– Death mostly in slum settlements
– Destroyed Infrastructure: water, sewer, drainage, road,
rail, air transport, power, telecommunications systems
– Destroyed ATM, banking systems, temporarily close of
Stock Exchanges
– increased rates of infectious disease for urban poor
• Projection:
– it is very likely that sea level rise will contribute to
increases in extreme sea levels
– very high confidence that coasts will be exposed to
increasing risks
• DRR and CCA practices:
– Infrastructure investments
– Strategy to
• avoid risk
• build resilience if cannot
avoid hazard
– Using capacity and resources for
innovation and economic growth
– Governance and economic
relations, including insurance,
provision of basic needs of health
and education
– Multi-hazard risk models, based on
probabilistic analysis, can help
reduce and manage risks
– Scaled-up financing for adaptation
to safeguard residents & economic
activity
– City wide analysis, assessments
• climate change impacts
• economic impacts
• standardized, multihazard
impacts
SIDSs: Republic of the Marshall Islands
• Vulnerability
– key vulnerability factors:
• limited freshwater supplies
• inadequate drainage infrastructure are
– small size, insularity, remoteness
– low-lying coastal zones
– key economic sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, tourism
are susceptible to natural hazards.
– economic dependence on international funders,
– lack of financial, technical resources for seawater
desalination
– high levels of poverty
– erosion, inundation, saline intrusion resulting in ecosystem
disruption,
– decreased agricultural productivity, changes in disease
patterns, economic losses, and population displacement
– weak human and institutional capacities for land
management
– damage, financial need after tsunami, hurricane for
restoration
– water resources are likely to be seriously compromised
• Natural hazards
– sea level rise,
– tropical storms or typhoons with associated storm surges,
– drought
• DRR and CCA practices
–
–
–
–
–
technology to limit the
effects of extreme weather
events on water supply
improvement of climate
sensitivity knowledge
single targeted program for
resilience to drought and
resilience to climate change
financial assistance through a
Compact of Free Association
Policy development
• national environmental
conservation policy
• natural disaster
management policy
– participate in international
protocols and conventions
relating to CC and
sustainable development
Asia implication
 Vulnerability & Exposure, and Risk assessment
 Partnership
 Financial & Programming mechanism
 Policy makers’ effort
 GHG mitigation
 Today’s “extreme”  tomorrow normal,
tomorrow extremes ???
 Smart development + DR is core in economic policy
3.
COMMONS IN THE CASE STUDY
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION
Challenges
• Current DRM and CCA policies and measures have
not been sufficient to avoid, fully prepare for, and
respond to extreme weather and climate events, but
these examples demonstrate progress.
Needs for Further Improvements
• Need for improvement (soft measures):
–
–
–
–
–
Legislation, policy and governance
Weather prediction and EWS, dissemination of early warning
Capacity building
Partnership and collaboration, community involvement
Linking DRR, CAA with development planning
• Need for development (hard measures):
–
–
–
–
Vital infrastructure
Agriculture
Restore economy
Innovative technology
Change Investment Policy
• Better to invest for:
– prevention rather than responding
• DRR plans, strategies, and tools for adaptation
• hazard and vulnerability reduction measures,
• development of capacities to respond and recover from the
events
– knowledge and information on
• observational and monitoring systems
• forecasting extreme events and early warning
• capacity building
Conclusion
We have great lessons from the disasters occurred in the recent
decades
• Extreme events will happen in future, may be more frequent and
intensive. Generic rule to follow for all types of hazardous events:
Know before  Prepare in advance  Outlive in hardship1
• Time is running so fast, without any stops, waits. So may be we need
to harry up:
Creating the Future Now from the Past2
(safer)
(learning)
1, 2 Doctrine from
(collaboratively)
Queen Sorkhogtoni Bekhi Tsetsen, XIII century
Nurzed, Mongolian Supreme Golden Contract, 2002
Thank you for attention!
Oyun Ravsal, Mongolia
oyun@jemr.mn