Alcohol-Impaired Driving and Other Injury Prevention: From Global to Local Ralph Hingson, Sc.D., M.P.H. Director, Division of Epidemiology and Prevention Research National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism U.S. – Russia Scientific Forum Meeting Moscow, Russia November 16-18, 2011 Alcohol and Global Health Growing concern worldwide World Health Assembly charged WHO with developing a Global Strategy Strategic Plan to reduce harm linked to alcohol (report due in Spring 2010) WHO Conferences in six regions: • Stakeholders (producers and sellers of alcohol) • NGOs • Government representatives of member countries (report draft under review) U.S. delegate for Regional Meeting of the Americas in Sao Paulo, Brazil, May 4-6, 2009 Data monitoring meeting, Valencia, Spain, Oct. 2124, 2009 Alcohol and Global Health, 2004 2,255,000 net alcohol-attributable deaths (3.8% of all deaths) 666,000 unintentional injuries 272,000 intentional injuries 545,000 cardiovascular disease 487,000 cancer 373,000 cirrhosis of the liver 135,000 neuropsychiatric diseases 237,000 deaths prevented (protective effects, heart disease) Source: Rehm et al., The Lancet, 2009 Global Per Capita Alcohol Consumption Source: Rehm et al., The Lancet, 2009 Global Burden of Alcohol Misuse The 8th leading cause of death The leading cause of death for males ages 15-59 Alcohol as Leading Cause of Death Percent of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) Attributable to Alcohol Europe 6.5% 11.6% Americas 5.6 9.2 Western Pacific Region 5.3 7.2 Africa 2.4 2.1 South East Asia 2.3 2.7 Eastern Mediterranean 0.5 0.5 World in 2004 3.8 4.6 World in 2000 3.0 4.0 Source: Rehm et al., The Lancet, 2009 Global Road Safety 1.2 million traffic deaths annually 9th leading cause of death – #1 cause ages 15-29 – #2 cause ages 5-14 – #3 cause ages 30-44 20-50 million injuries annually Source: World Health Organization, Global Status Report on Road Safety, 2009 Globally there is a special concern about youth and alcohol • 1/3 of traffic deaths worldwide are under age 25 (over 400,000 annually) At BAC 0.05% • Young adult drivers have 2.5 times the crash risk as older more experienced drivers (Source: WHO Top 10 Youth Traffic Facts) Alcohol in Fatal Crashes Reports from 93 countries In 29% of countries, 30% or more of fatal crashes involve alcohol WHO recommends 0.05% legal BAC – Only half of countries with legal BAC limits have a BAC of 0.05% or lower – Only 19 of 139 countries with BAC limits have lower limits for young novice drivers Source: World Health Organization, Global Status Report on Road Safety, 2009 Trends in Road Traffic Safety Rates in Selected High-Income Countries Source: World Health Organization, Global Status Report on Road Safety, 2009 Alcohol-Related traffic deaths have declined since the early 1980s in many high-income countries, including: • • • • • • • • Australia Canada France Germany The Netherlands Sweden United Kingdom United States Source: Sweedler and Stewart, “Worldwide Trends in Alcohol and Drug Impaired Driving,” in Drugs, Driving and Traffic Safety, Verster et al. (Eds.), Birkhauser Verlag AG, 2009 Low/Middle Income Countries Traffic deaths and injuries are increasing 90% of traffic deaths worldwide • Twice the death rate/100,000 as high income countries • Less than ½ registered vehicles Nearly half of traffic deaths are: • Pedestrians • Motor cyclists, bicyclists, or passengers in public transport Source: World Health Organization, Global Status Report on Road Safety, 2009 Concern Alcohol-Related Fatal Crashes will increase in developing countries: • Increase in motor vehicle crashes • Increases in per capita alcohol consumption “Economic Development is usually associated with an increase in levels of both alcohol consumption and alcohol problems” -- Room et al. European Addiction Research (2003) Related Risks Only 29% of countries meet basic criteria for reducing speed in urban areas Only 57% of countries have seat belt laws Only 20% of low income countries have child restraint laws vs. 90% of high income countries Only 40% of countries have a motor cycle helmet law Only 20% of countries have an information system to monitor road traffic injuries and costs Source: World Health Organization, Global Status Report on Road Safety, 2009 Alcohol Attributable Deaths in the United States, Annual Average, 2001-2005 79,696 3rd leading cause of preventable deaths Injury (including poisoning): 43,731 Chronic disease: 35,915 Source: CDC, ARDI, 2009 Alcohol Attributable Deaths: Conditions 43,731 Motor Vehicle Traffic Acute 13,819 Homicide 7,787 Suicide 7,235 Falls 5,532 Poisoning (Not alcohol) 5,416 370 Poisoning (Alcohol) Fire Injuries Drowning Other Source: CDC: ARDI, 2009 1,158 868 1,546 Alcohol- vs. Non-Alcohol-Related Traffic Fatalities, Rate Per 100,000, All Ages, United States, 1982-2008 12.00 11.3 (n=26,173) Non-Alcohol-Related ↓ 7% 10.00 8.00 7.67 6.00 (n= 17,772) 4.00 7.14 (n= 21,823) Alcohol-Related ↓ 55% 5.05 (n= 15,438) 2.00 0.00 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Sources: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2009; U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 From 1982-2001 in the U.S, 153,168 lives were saved by decreased drinking and driving. This is more than the combined numbers of lives saved by increased use of – – – – Seat belts 129,297 Airbags 4,305 Motorcycle helmets 6,475 Bicycle helmets 239 Total 140, 316 Source: Cummings, Rivara, Olson, Smith. Injury Prevention, 2006. Haddon Matrix Human (Host) Vehicle and Equipment (Agent) (Environment) Pre Crash •Price •Minimum Purchase Age •DWI Laws/Enforcement •Lights/Braking •Ignition Interlock •Speed •Rumble Strips •Signals/Signs Crash •Belt Use Primary Law •Helmet Laws •Airbags •Collapsible Steering Column •Guard Rails •Divided Highway Design Post Crash •Cell Phone •First Aid/CPR •Trauma Center Alcohol Screening •Non-Exploding •EMS Trauma fuel tank Center •Crash Analyses When to Use Laws to Change Behavior to Promote Health Problem is important Law is effective Law is minimally intrusive No less intrusive equally effective alternative Behavior harms others Public Supports The Law Environmental Policy Interventions Legislation to reduce drinking & driving – Criminal per se laws – Administrative license revocation laws – Mandatory assessment & treatment laws – Primary safety belt laws – Ignition interlock for first offenders – Lower legal blood alcohol limits for convicted offenders – 0.08% criminal per se BAC level laws – Zero tolerance laws Enhanced enforcement- publicized sobriety checkpoints Environmental Policy Interventions Legislation to reduce availability of alcohol – Minimum legal drinking age (Shults et al., Am. J. Prev. Med., 2001; Wagenaar & Toomey, J. Stud Alcohol Drugs, 2002; Institute of Medicine, 2004) – Reduce alcohol outlet density (Gruenwald & Remer, Alcohol: Clin. Exp. Res., 2006; Campbell et al., Am J Prev Med, 2009) – Increase price (Wagenaar et al., Addiction, 2009; Institute of Medicine, 2004; Elder et al., Am J Prev Med, 2010; WHO, 2009; Maldonado-Molina & Wagenaar, ACER, 2010) 30 20 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Faroe Islands Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Isle of Man Italy Latvia Lithuania Malta Monaco Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Ukraine U.K. United States National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Percent Drunk in Past Year, Students Ages 15-16, ESPAD 2007 80 73 70 62 60 57 58 51 50 46 45 47 40 29 4242 45 48 25 50 43 45 36 28 46 42 37 36 35 40 40 32 42 37 40 32 35 25 26 18 10 0 Compared to Other Regions of the World National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Europe has the highest: • Per capita alcohol consumption: 11.9 liters pure alcohol vs. 6.2 liters worldwide • Percent of deaths that are attributable to alcohol : 6.5% vs. 3.2% worldwide • Alcohol-Attributable burden of disease (measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)): 11.6% vs. 4% worldwide • Past year prevalence of alcohol use disorders: – 5.5% Western Europe – 10.9% Eastern Europe – 3.6% worldwide Source: Rehm J et al., Alcohol and Global Health, Lancet 373, 2223-2233, 2009. 29 50 Federal 21 Drinking Age Drinking Age 21 in all states 45 Full-time College Students 40 35 Other 1-4 Yrs. Past HS 30 Percent National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Alcohol: Trends in 2-Week Prevalence of 5 or More Drinks in a Row among College Students vs. Others 1-4 Years Beyond HS 25 12th Graders 20 15 10 5 0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: Monitoring the Future, 2007 National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Alcohol- vs. Non-Alcohol-Related Traffic Fatalities, Rate Per 100,000, Ages 16-20, United States,1982-2008 U.S. MLDA Age 21 law MLDA 21 in all 50 states 30 25.58 (n=5,244) Non-Alcohol-Related ↓ 1% 25 13.19 (n=2,853) 20 15 10 13.36 (n=2,738) Alcohol-Related ↓ 70% 5 7.60 (n=1,644) 0 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Sources: U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System, 2009; U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 2006 31 2008 National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Legal Drinking Age Changes CDC reviewed 49 studies published in scientific journals Alcohol-Related Traffic Crashes: - Increased10% when the drinking age was lowered - Decreased 16% when the drinking age was raised Source: Shults et al., American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2001 National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism James Fell et al. The Impact of Underage Drinking Laws on Alcohol-Related Fatal Crashes of Young Drivers Alcohol Clin Exp Res, 2009 Methods • Analysis of the Fatality Analysis Reporting System from 1982-2004 • Examined the effects of the minimum legal drinking age of 21 on the ratio of drinking to non-drinking drivers under age 21 in fatal crashes • Controlled for: – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Zero Tolerance Laws Graduated License Night Restrictions Use/Lose laws Administrative License Revocation .10, .08 BAC per se Mandatory seat belt laws Per capita beer consumption Unemployment rate Vehicle miles traveled Frequency of sobriety checkpoints Number of licensed drivers Ratio of drinking to non-drinking drivers Age 26+ in fatal crashes Ratio of drinking to non-drinking drivers age 26+ in fatal crashes Fell et al., Alcohol Clin Exp Res, 2009 (cont) National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Results • Minimum legal drinking age was independently associated with a 16% decline in the ratio of drinking to non-drinking drivers in fatal crashes under age 21 • Other laws that independently predicted lower involvement of drinking drivers under age 21 in fatal crashes: – – – – – Use/Lose laws ↓5% Zero tolerance laws ↓5% 0.08% BAC limit ↓ 8% 0.10% BAC limit ↓ 7% Administrative license ↓ 5% revocation (ALR) – Seat belt laws ↓ 3% Conclusions • Minimum legal drinking age of 21 reduced involvement of drinking drivers under 21 in fatal crashes (16%) • Zero tolerance laws and Use/Lose laws targeted drivers under 21 also produced reductions • Laws targeting drinking drivers of all ages also reduced involvement of drinking drivers under 21 in fatal crashes (0.08% and .10% BAC limits, ALR, seat belt laws) National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Cumulative Estimated Number of Lives Saved by the Minimum Drinking Age Laws 1975-2007 30,000 25,509 24,619 25,000 23,737 20,970 20,043 20,000 15,000 26,333 22,810 21,892 19,121 18,220 17,359 16,513 14,816 15,667 13,968 13,152 12,357 10,000 5,000 0 19751991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 2005 2007 10 Reasons for Legal Drinking Age of 21 Alcohol-related traffic fatalities and injuries Other unintentional injuries (falls, drownings, burns) Homicide and assault Sexual assault Suicide STDs, HIV/AIDS Unplanned pregnancy Alcohol dependence Teen drug use Poor academic performance *Nearly 5,000 alcohol related injury deaths among youth under 21 Norberg et al. Long-Term Effects of Minimum Drinking Age Laws on Past-Year Alcohol and Drug Use Disorders, Alcohol Clin Exp Res, 2009 Examined: • 1991 National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiological Survey (NLAES) • 2002 National Epidemiologic Study on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) Studied: • 33,869 subjects – 18,539 NLAES – 15,330 NESARC • Cohorts: – Reached 18 1948-55: Were 18 when alcohol purchase ages were lowered. 1956-70: were raised. Norberg, 2009 (cont.) Compared persons in states with drinking ages below 21 and 21 Controlled for: • Gender • Parental alcohol problems • Survey • State beer tax • Race/Ethnicity • When 18 years old • Sate of Residence • Education • State of birth • Employment • Marital status • Children in home Results: • Adults allowed to purchase before age 21 had higher odds of past-year: – Alcohol use disorder 1.31(1.15, 1.46) – Drug use disorder 1.70 (1.19, 2.44) (even in 30s and 40s) Grant et al. 1998 National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Early Drinking Onset and Alcohol Dependence: Twin Study Results Early age of starting to drink is significantly associated with the development of alcohol dependence comparing twins when one began to drink earlier than the other (even among monozygotic “identical” twins, thus fully controlling for genetics) J. Grant et al. Psychological Medicine, 2006 National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Earlier Age Drinking Onset Also Related to: More rapid development of dependence Dependence by age 25 Of ever dependent 47% before age 21 2/3 before age 25 Chronic Relapsing Dependence • • • • • Longer episodes Multiple episodes Past year dependence More symptoms Early dependents less likely to seek help Hingson, Heeren and Winter 2006 Archives Pediatric and Adol Med Hingson, Heeren and Winter 2006 Pediatrics Brian Paul McKelvey National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Earlier drinking onset is also related to Motor vehicle crashes (Hingson et al., 2002) Unintentional injuries (Hingson et al., 2006) Physical fights after drinking (Hingson et al., 2001) Injuring self and others under the influence (Hingson & Zha, 2009) Motor vehicle crash involvement because of drug use (Hingson et al., 2008) Michael Timothy Wilder42 National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Early Age of Drinking Onset also Associated with: Suicide – Swahn et al., Pediatrics, 2008; Bossarte & Swahn, Addict Behav, 2011 Violent behavior, including predatory violence – Blitstein et al., Health Educ Behav, 2005; Ellickson, et al., Pediatrics, 2003 Dating violence/victimization – Ramisetty-Mikler et al., J Sch Health, 2006 Criminal behavior – Eaton, J. Interpers Violence, 2007; Allan et al., S. Afr Med J, 2007. Prescription drug ,misuse – Hermos et al., J. Addict Med., 2008 Unplanned and unprotected sex after drinking – Hingson et al., Pediatrics, 2003 50 45 40 Percent National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Where do Young Teens Obtain Alcohol? U.S. Drinkers, Ages 12-20, Source of Alcohol Used in Past Month, by Age, 2006 35 45% 15% 30 25 13% 20 5% 15 10 22% 14% 2% 8% 9% 17% 5 8% 4% 0 Ages 12-14 Ages 15-17 Ages 18-20 Took From Home Other Family Parents Source: SAMHSA, Underage Alcohol Use: Findings from the 2002-2006 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health, 2008 National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Studies Indicating a Statistically Significant Association Between Parents Providing Alcohol at Home to Their Children and Subsequent Heavy Alcohol Use or Problems Among Those Children Home Availability Linked to Heavier Childhood Drinking: • McMorris et al., J Stud Alcohol Drugs 72: 418-428, 2011 • Van Den Eijnden et al., J Stud Alcohol Drugs 72: 408-417, 2011 • Van der Vorst, J Stud Alcohol Drugs 71: 105-114, 2010 • Livingston et al., Addict Behav 35(12): 1105-1112, 2010 • Komro et al., Addiction 102: 1597–1608, 2008 • Lundborg, Vulnerable Child Youth Stud 2(1): 60-70, 2007 • Foley et al., J Adol Health 34(5): e17-e26, 2004 • Jackson et al., J Stud Alcohol 60: 362-367, 1999 • Dielman et al., J Sch Health 59(6): 255-263, 1989 National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Why Are These Findings Important? Injuries are the leading cause of death among youth 1-44 Unintentional injuries #1 1-44 Intentional injuries #2 8-34 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Why Are These Findings Important? Alcohol is involved over 50,000 injury deaths annually* (Nearly 44,000 attributable to alcohol) 40% unintended injury deaths 47% Homicides 29% Suicides 39,000 8,000 8,500 Alcohol is the leading contributor to injuries & the leading cause of death among young people in the United States Source G. Smith et. al 1999; CDC, 2009 * Over half under age 44 BAC and Impairment .1 0 .0 9 .0 8 .0 7 .0 6 .0 5 .0 4 .0 3 .0 2 .0 1 BAC Concentrated Attention, Speed Control, Braking, Steering, Gear Changing, Lane Tracking, Judgement Tracking, Divided Attention, Coordination, Comprehension, Eye Movement Simple Reaction Time, Emergency Response Choice Reaction Time Key driving functions are impaired at levels as low as .02-.04%. Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Relative Risk of Fatal Crash Relative Risk of Fatal Crash Drivers Age 16-19 and 20+ As a function of BAC 10.0 16-19 y.o. 9.0 8.0 Increased Risk of Driver Single Vehicle Crash Death at Blood Alcohol Concentration of .08% .10% Relative to Sober Drivers Male 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 20+ y.o. 3.0 2.0 Age 16-20 21-34 35+ Relative Risk 51.4 13.4 11.4 1.0 0.0 0 .015-.049 .050-.079 Blood Alcohol Concentration (mg%) The risk of fatal crash increases more with each drink among young drivers than drivers age 20 and older. Source: Simpson, H. 1989 Source: Zador P., Krawchuck S., Voas R., J. Studies on Alcohol, 2000 Proportion of Teen Fatal Crashes Involving Single Vehicles at Night Percent 40% Before and After Zero Tolerance Laws for Youth Comparison Zero Tolerance Before After Before 31.3 31.7 31.6 30% After Comparison 1% 25.1 Zero Tolerance 21% 20% 10% 0% SVNF Fatal Crashes 1439 4597 1079 3400 Source: Hingson, Heeren, Winter, 1994 1150 3637 717 2851 Hingson, Heeren, Winter – AJPH (1996) .08 Laws .08 Law States Comparison States Date .08% Law Effective Analysis Period Utah Idaho August 1983 Aug. 1976 – July 1991 Oregon Washington November 1983 Nov. 1976 – Oct. 1991 Maine Massachusetts August 1988 Aug. 1984 – July 1993 California Texas Jan. 1986 – Dec. 1993 Vermont New Hampshire July 1981 January 1990 July 1990 – June 1993 Hingson, Heeren, and Winter 1996 American Journal of Public Health Conclusion: “.08 laws, particularly in combination with administrative license revocation, reduce the proportion of fatal crashes involving drivers and fatally injured drivers with blood alcohol levels at .08% or higher and .15% or higher.” After subtracting 6-9% alcohol related fatal crash declines associated with ALR in prior national studies, we projected that if all state adopted .08% laws, 500-600 fewer fatal crashes would occur each year. Key ABI Arguments .08% law a feel good law that will not reduce alcohol-related traffic deaths .08% laws target social drinkers, not high BAC offenders; over ½ drivers in alcoholrelated fatal crashes have BACs above .15% MADD prohibitionist .08% first step down slippery slope (“Impairment begins with 1st drink” proves it) - MADD more concerned with raising money than reducing traffic deaths - Hingson 1996 study of .08% laws flawed • Compared California with Texas, not a nearby state • Other comparisons preferable, e.g. Mythical State, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania (Scopatz, 1998) • Not possible to separate effects of .08 laws from ALR • Clinton relied too heavily on Hingson study - .08% laws will clog courts with new cases and fill jails - This will cost $$ - Every year the majority of states considering .08 laws defeat them - A 120 pound woman would reach .08% after 2 drinks; she would lose her license, be called a criminal and face jail time Ten studies have been conducted in the U.S. that examined multiple states that adopted .08% Per Se Laws - Johnson & Fell (1995) - Hingson, Heeren, Winter (1996) - Apsler et. al. (1999) - Voas, Tippetts, Fell (1999, 2000) - Hingson, Heeren, Winter (2000) - Dee (2001) - Shults et al. (2001) - Eisenberg (2003) - Bernat et al. (2004) - Tippetts et al. (2005) - Every study found significant reductions in fatal crash measures involving drinking drivers Is Passing Laws Enough? Potential Process of Change After a Drinking Age Increase Police and Enforcement Legal Drinking Age Increase Court Enforcement Public Education Who - Minors - Alcohol Outlets What - Reasons for Law - Enforcement General Legal Deterrence Reduction In Drinking & Driving After Drinking Changes in Public Perception about Alcohol Fatal and Night Fatal Crash Reductions Comprehensive Community Interventions Involve multiple departments of city government and private citizens Use multiple program strategies • • • • • • Education Media advocacy Community organizing and mobilization Environment policy change Heightened enforcement Expand alcohol treatment Successful Comprehensive Community Interventions Saving Lives Program, Hingson (1996) Project Northland, Perry (1996) Communities Mobilizing for Change, Wagenaar (2002) Community Trials, Holder (2000) A Matter of Degree, Weitzman (2004) Fighting Back, Hingson (2005) Sacramento Neighborhood Prevention, Treno, (2007) State Coalitions to Reduce Underage Drinking, Wagenaar (2007) Neighborhoods Engaging with Students (NEST), Saltz (2009) College community program, McCartt et al. (2009) Communities That Care, Hawkins et al. (2009) Safer California Universities, Saltz et al. (2010) Comprehensive community interventions address college age and underage drinking at multiple levels - Coordinate multiple city departments Clear measurable Objectives and Strategic Plans Combine Education and Law Enforcement Include screening and early interventions Use Data to Plan and Evaluate Involve Private Citizens – Be Inclusive Involve Youth National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Conclusions Research indicates reductions in underage and college age drinking and related problems can be achieved with interventions that focus on - Individuals - Families - Schools - Environmental Changes/Legislation Interventions targeting multiple levels are more effective National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism