PowerPoint

advertisement

Projects

3.

4.

5.

6.

1.

2.

Explain what project management is and why it is important.

Identify the different ways projects can be structured in an organization.

Describe how project objectives are set.

Describe how projects are organized into components using work breakdown structure

Determine the “critical path” for a project.

Demonstrate how to “crash,” or reduce the length, of a project.

LO 1

Building: a ship, a satellite, an oil rig, and a nuclear plant.

Developing: computer programs, an advertising campaign, a new product, a new process, and training materials.

Implementing: new technologies and work procedures.

Project: a series of related jobs usually directed toward some major output and requiring a significant period of time to perform

Project management: the management activities of planning, directing, and controlling resources (people, equipment, material) to meet the technical, cost, and time constraints of a project

LO 1

LO 1

LO 1

The 4

th

dimension: client satisfaction

LO 1

Project Life Cycle

: changing patterns of resource usage and level of activity over the course of the project

LO 1

Stages of a Conventional Project:

◦ Slow beginning

◦ Buildup of size

◦ Peak

◦ Begin a decline

◦ Termination

LO 1

LO 1

Time distribution of project effort is characterized by slow-rapid-slow

Risk during project life cycle

◦ With most projects there is some uncertainty about the ability to meet project goals

◦ Uncertainty of outcome is greatest at the start of a project

◦ Uncertainty decreases as the project moves toward completion

LO 1

LO 1

Try to avoid the “90-90 rule of project management”:

The first 90% of the project takes 90% of the time, the last

10% takes the other 90%.

LO 1

What does this rule really mean?

LO 1

 During the life cycle cycle, project management is accomplished through the use of processes such as:

 Initiating, planning, executing, controlling, and closing

 Many of these processes are iterative in nature because the project is being progressively elaborated

LO 1

An Alternate View*

Stage 1: Excitement – Euphoria

Stage 2: Disenchantment

Stage 3: Search for the Guilty

Stage 4: Punishment of the Innocent

Stage 5: Distinction for the Uninvolved

*Author unknown but believed to have perished in stage 4

LO 2

Pure project

Functional project

Matrix project

LO 2

Advantages

◦ The project manager has full authority

◦ Team members report to one boss

◦ Shortened communication lines

◦ Team pride, motivation, and commitment are high

Disadvantages

◦ Duplication of resources

◦ Organizational goals and policies are ignored

◦ Lack of technology transfer

◦ Team members have no functional area "home"

LO 2

LO 2

Advantages

◦ A team member can work on several projects

◦ Technical expertise maintained in functional area

◦ Functional area is “home” after project completed

◦ Critical mass of specialized knowledge

Disadvantages

◦ Aspects of the project that are not directly related to the functional area get short-changed

◦ Motivation of team members is often weak

◦ Needs of the client are secondary and are responded to slowly

LO 2

LO 2

Advantages

◦ Better communications between functional areas

◦ Project manager held responsible for success

◦ Duplication of resources is minimized

◦ Functional “home” for team members

◦ Policies of the parent organization are followed

Disadvantages

◦ Too many bosses

◦ Depends on project manager’s negotiating skills

◦ Potential for sub-optimization

LO 2

LO 3

Why Set Project Objectives

To provide direction for project activities

To enable measuring results against prior exceptions

Resource usage (manpower, materials, etc.)

◦ Schedule integrity

◦ Quality of work

To determine specific goals which will provide maximum effectiveness of project activities

LO 2

Requirements for Project Objectives

Achievable

(time, resources, staff)

Understandable

(vs. complex)

Specific

(vs. general, vague statements)

Tangible

(“deliverables”)

Measurable

(resources, schedule, quality)

Consistent

(with strategy, programs, policies, procedures)

Assignable

(department or individual)

LO 2

Example: D.U. Singer Project

Title: Permanent Antiseptic Production Start-

Up

Objectives:

◦ Develop a comprehensive plan for the production of a new, permanent antiseptic

◦ Complete development and testing of a manufacturing process that:

 Meets all current FDA, EPA, and OSHA regulations as well as internal specifications

 produces 95% yield of product (full packaged) at a level of 80% of full production goal of 10 million liters per year

LO 2

Be careful of the jargon!

Statement of work (SOW): a written description of the objectives to be achieved

Task: a further subdivision of a project

◦ Usually shorter than several months

◦ Performed by one group or organization

Work package: a group of activities combined to be assignable to a single organizational unit

LO 4

Project milestones: specific events on the project

Work breakdown structure (WBS): defines the hierarchy of project tasks, subtasks, and work packages

Activities: pieces of work that consume time

◦ Defined within the context of the WBS

LO 4

LO 4

LO 4

Work Breakdown Structure

Program: New Product Introduction

1.0 Project 1: Engineering Development

1.1 Task 1: Run pilot test

1.2 Task 2: Review process costs

1.3 Task 3: and efficiencies

Prepare Capital

Equipment List

2.0 Project 2: Market Survey

2.1 Task 1:

2.2 Task 2:

Complete Market Survey

Analyze Survey Results

2.3 Task 3: Prepare Marketing Plan

LO 4

Work Breakdown Structure

LO 4

3.0

Project 3: Manufacturing Start-up

3.1 Task 1:

3.2 Task 2:

Install and Test New Equipment

Establish Manufacturing

Procedures

3.3 Task 3: Detailed Testing of Initial

Output

4.0 Project 4: Sales Force Training

4.1 Task 1: Select Sales People

4.2 Task 2:

4.3 Task 3:

Select Distributors

Train Sales Force and

Distributors

Charts are useful because their visual presentation is easily understood

Software is available to create the charts

Gantt chart: a bar chart showing both the amount of time involved and the sequence in which activities can be performed

LO 4

LO 4

LO 5

A project is made up of a sequence of activities that form a network representing a project

The path taking longest time through this network of activities is called the

“critical path”

The critical path provides a wide range of scheduling information useful in managing a project

Critical Path Method (CPM) helps to identify the critical path(s) in the project networks

A project must have:

 well-defined jobs or tasks whose completion marks the end of the project;

 independent jobs or tasks;

 and tasks that follow a given sequence.

LO 5

LO 5

CPM with a Single Time Estimate

◦ Used when activity times are known with certainty

◦ Used to determine timing estimates for the project, each activity in the project, and slack time for activities

CPM with Three Activity Time Estimates

◦ Used when activity times are uncertain

◦ Used to obtain the same information as the

Single Time Estimate model and probability information

Time-Cost Models

◦ Used when cost trade-off information is a major consideration in planning

◦ Used to determine the least cost in reducing total project time

3.

4.

1.

2.

Identify each activity to be done and estimate how long it will take

Determine the requires sequence and construct a network diagram

Determine the critical path

Determine the early start/finish and late start/finish schedule

LO 5

Activity

Assess customer's needs

Write and submit proposal

Obtain approval

Develop service vision and goals

Train employees

Quality improvement pilot groups

Write assessment report

Designation Immed. Pred. Time (Weeks)

A None 2

B A 1

C

D

E

F

G

B

C

C

D, E

F

1

2

5

5

1

Develop a critical path diagram and determine the duration of the critical path and slack times for all activities.

LO 5

Act.

E

F

G

C

D

A

B

Imed. Pred. Time

B

C

None

A

C

D,E

F

5

5

1

1

2

2

1

A(2) B(1) C(1)

D(2)

F(5)

G(1)

E(5)

LO 5

LO 5

Activities on the critical path cannot be delayed without delaying the completion of the project

There are two paths:

A – B – C – D – F – G: 12 weeks

A – B – C – E – F – G: 15 weeks

Activity D can be delayed by up to 3 weeks without delaying the project

The

longest

path is critical –

why?

ES=0 ES= ES=3

EF=2 2 EF=4

EF=

A(2) B(1) C(1)

3

ES=4

EF=6

D(2)

Hint: Start with ES=0 and go forward in the network from A to G.

ES=4

EF=9

E(5)

ES=9

EF=14

ES=14

EF=15

F(5) G(1)

LO 5

LO 5

ES=0

EF=2

A(2)

LS=0

LF=2

ES=2

EF=3

B(1)

LS=2

LF=3

ES=3

EF=4

C(1)

LS=3

LF=4

ES=4

EF=6

Hint: Start with LF=15 or the total time of the project and go backward in the network from G to A.

D(2)

LS=7

LF=9

ES=4

EF=9

E(5)

LS=4

LF=9

ES=9

EF=14

ES=14

EF=15

F(5)

LS=9

LF=14

G(1)

LS=14

LF=15

ES=0

EF=2

ES=2

EF=3

ES=3

EF=4

A(2) B(1) C(1)

LS=0

LF=2

LS=2

LF=3

LS=3

LF=4

ES=4

EF=6

D(2)

Slack=(7-4)=(9-6)= 3 Wks

LS=7

LF=9

ES=4

EF=9

E(5)

ES=9

EF=14

F(5)

LS=9

LF=14

ES=14

EF=15

G(1)

LS=14

LF=15

LS=4

Duration=15 weeks

LF=9

LO 5

Activity

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

Description

Build internal components

Modify roof and floor

Construct collection stack

Pour concrete and install frame

Build high-temperature burner

Install pollution control system

Install air pollution device

Inspect and test

LO 5

Immed. Preds.

-

-

A

A, B

C

C

D, E

F, G

2

A C

2

Start

B

3

D

4

Start is a “Dummy” activity with 0 duration

LO 5

E

4

G

5

F

3

2

H

LO 5

Earliest

Start

Latest

Start

ES

LS

EF

LF

Earliest

Finish

Latest

Finish

A

Start

B

LO 5

C

E

D G

F

H

Four paths in the network:

Path 1: Start – A – C – F – H: 9 weeks

Path 2: Start – A – C – E – G – H: 15 weeks

Path 3: Start – A – D – G – H: 13 weeks

Path 4: Start – B – D – G – H: 14 weeks

Path 2 is critical

LO 5

A, C, E, G, and H are on the critical path and so they have 0 slack

B is on path 4, so its slack is 15 – 14 = 1

D is on paths 3 and 4, so its slack is 15 – Max

(13,14) = 1

F is on path 1, so its slack is 15 – 9 = 6

An activity can be delayed by its slack and not delay the project completion

LO 5

0

0

0

Start

0

A

0

2

A

Slack=0

2

2

0

1

B

B

3

3

4

Slack=1

LO 5

2

2

C

2

H

C

4

4

Slack=0

3

4

D

H

D

7

4

8

Slack=1

4

10

4

E

8

4

4

8

Slack=0

8

F

F

H

3

7

13

Slack=6

13

8

5

13

Slack=0

13

13

H

H

2

15

15

Slack=0

Great Valley General Hospital

A Build internal components

B Modify roof and floor

C Construct collection stack

D Pour concrete and install frame

E Build high-temperature burner

F Install pollution control system

G Install air pollution device

H Inspect and test

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13

1415 16

LO 5

LO 5

LO 5

A-C-F-G:

A-C-E-G:

A-B-D-F-G:

A-B-D-E-G:

38

35

38

35

Paths A-C-F-G and A-B-D-F-G are

both critical

LO 5

If a single time estimate is not reliable, then use three time estimates

◦ a = Optimistic (Minimum)

◦ b = Pessimistic (Maximum)

◦ m = Most likely

Allows us to obtain a probability estimate for completion time for the project

LO 5

LO 5

Task

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

Immediate

Predecesors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

None

None

3

2

6

4

15

14

A

A

C

D

6

2

5

3

12

5

11

6

30

8

17

15

B

E,F

G,H

3

1

4

9

4

19

27

7

28

ET(A)=

[3+4(6)+15]/6

Task

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

Immediate

Predecesors

None

None

A

A

C

D

B

E,F

G,H

Expected

Time

7

5.333

14

5

11

7

11

4

18

ET(A)=42/6=7

Immediate

Task Predecesors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

A

B

None

None

3

2

6

4

15

14

E

F

C

D

A

A

C

D

6

2

5

3

12

5

11

6

30

8

17

15

G

H

I

B

E,F

G,H

3

1

4

9

4

19

27

7

28

Expected Time =

Opt. Time + 4(M ost Likely Time) + Pess. Time

6

LO 5

ET(B)=

[2+4(4)+14]/6

Task

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

Immediate

Predecesors

None

None

A

A

C

D

B

E,F

G,H

Expected

Time

7

5.333

14

5

11

7

11

4

18

ET(B)=32/6=5.333

Immediate

Task Predecesors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

A

B

None

None

3

2

6

4

15

14

E

F

C

D

A

A

C

D

6

2

5

3

12

5

11

6

30

8

17

15

G

H

I

B

E,F

G,H

3

1

4

9

4

19

27

7

28

Expected Time =

Opt. Time + 4(M ost Likely Time) + Pess. Time

6

LO 5

Task

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

Immediate

Predecesors

None

None

A

A

C

D

B

E,F

G,H

Expected

Time

7

5.333

14

5

11

7

11

4

18

ET(C)=

[6+4(12)+30]/6

ET(C)=84/6=14

Immediate

Task Predecesors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

A

B

None

None

3

2

6

4

15

14

E

F

C

D

A

A

C

D

6

2

5

3

12

5

11

6

30

8

17

15

G

H

I

B

E,F

G,H

3

1

4

9

4

19

27

7

28

Expected Time =

Opt. Time + 4(M ost Likely Time) + Pess. Time

6

LO 5

A(7)

B

(5.333)

LO 5

C(14)

D(5)

Network

E(11)

Duration = 54 Days

H(4)

F(7)

I(18)

G(11)

Probability Exercise

What is the probability of finishing this project in less than 53 days?

LO 5 p(t < D)

D=53 T

E

= 54

Z =

D - T

E

  cp

2 t

LO 5

2

= (

P essim . - O p tim .

)

2

6

Task

A

B

C a m b

Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Variance

4 3

2

6

6

4

12

15

14

30 16

D

E

F

G

H

3

3

2

5

1

5

11

6

9

4

I 4 19

(Sum the variance along the critical path .)

8

17

15

27

7

28

 

2

4

1

16

= 41

p(t < D)

Z =

D=53

D - T

E

  cp

2

T

E

= 54

=

53 - 54

= -.156

41 p(Z < -.156) = .438, or 43.8 % (NORMSDIST(-.156)) t

There is a 43.8% probability that this project will be completed in less than 53 weeks.

LO 5

What is the probability that the project duration will exceed 56 weeks?

LO 5

p(t < D) t

T

E

= 54

D=56

Z =

D - T

E

  cp

2

=

56 - 54

= .312

41 p(Z > .312) = .378

, or 37.8 % (1-NORMSDIST(.312))

LO 5

LO 5

LO 5

Two critical paths:

A-C-F-G: var. = 11 8/9 = 11.89

A-B-D-F-G var. = 10 2/9 = 10.33

Take larger var.

LO 5

Probabilit y of Finishing

Z

D

 

T

E

2 cp

So prob

0.1922

35

38

11 .

89 in 35 Weeks

 

0 .

87

Basic assumption: Relationship between activity completion time and project cost

Time cost models: Determine the optimum point in time-cost tradeoffs

◦ Activity direct costs

◦ Project indirect costs

◦ Activity completion times

LO 6

3.

4.

5.

1.

2.

Prepare a CPM-type network diagram

Determine the cost per unit of time to expedite each activity

Compute the critical path

Shorten the critical path at the least cost

Plot project direct, indirect, and total-cost curves and find the minimum-cost schedule

LO 6

LO 6

LO 6

LO 6

Assumes indirect cost is a constant

$10 up to 8 days and increases

$5/day thereafter

8 days is lowest total cost

LO 6

LO 6

Four paths in the network:

Path 1: Start – A – C – F – H: 9 weeks

Path 2: Start – A – C – E – G – H: 15 weeks

Path 3: Start – A – D – G – H: 13 weeks

Path 4: Start – B – D – G – H: 14 weeks

Path 2 is critical

Assume $0 indirect costs

Desire to crash this project by two weeks at the smallest direct cost

Act. NT CT NC CC CC/WK CP?

A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750 Y

B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2000 N

C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 Y

D 4 3 48,000 49,000 1,000 N

E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 Y

F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 N

G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500 Y

H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000 Y

Total: 308,000 to complete the project in 15 weeks – called the normal cost

LO 6

LO 6

Select the activity with smallest crash cost per week that is on the critical path – activity A at a cost of $750

Start – B – D – G – H is also critical (14 wks)

Crash G by 1 week at a cost of $1,500 to reduce the project by an additional week

(vs. crashing C and D at a combined cost of $2,000)

Cost to complete project in 13 weeks =

$308,000 + 750 + 1,500 = $310,250

In addition to scheduling each task, must assign resources

Software can spot over-allocation

◦ Allocations exceed resources

Must either add resources or reschedule

◦ Moving a task within slack can free up resources

LO 1

Actual progress on a project will be different from the planned progress

◦ Planned progress is called the baseline

A tracking Gantt chart superimposes the current schedule onto a baseline so deviations are visible

Project manager can then manage the deviations

LO 1

Download