Fundamentals of Markets © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 1 Let us go to the market... • Opportunity for buyers and sellers to: – compare prices – estimate demand – estimate supply • Achieve an equilibrium between supply and demand © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 2 How much do I value apples? Price One apple for my break Take some back for lunch Enough for every meal Home-made apple pie Home-made cider? Quantity Consumers spend until the price is equal to their marginal utility © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 3 Demand curve • Aggregation of the individual demand of all consumers • Demand function: Price q = D(p ) • Inverse demand function: Quantity © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington p = D-1(q) 4 Elasticity of the demand Price High elasticity good • Slope is an indication of the elasticity of the demand • High elasticity – Non-essential good – Easy substitution Quantity • Low elasticity – Essential good – No substitutes Price Low elasticity good • Electrical energy has a very low elasticity in the short term Quantity © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 5 Elasticity of the demand • Mathematical definition: dq p dq q e= = × dp q dp p • Dimensionless quantity © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 6 Supply side • How many widgets shall I produce? – Goal: make a profit on each widget sold – Produce one more widget if and only if the cost of producing it is less than the market price • Need to know the cost of producing the next widget • Considers only the variable costs • Ignores the fixed costs – Investments in production plants and machines © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 7 How much does the next one costs? Cost of producing a widget Total Quantity Normal production procedure © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 8 How much does the next one costs? Cost of producing a widget Total Quantity Use older machines © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 9 How much does the next one costs? Cost of producing a widget Total Quantity Second shift production © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 10 How much does the next one costs? Cost of producing a widget Total Quantity Third shift production © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 11 How much does the next one costs? Cost of producing a widget Total Quantity Extra maintenance costs © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 12 Supply curve Price or marginal cost • Aggregation of marginal cost curves of all suppliers • Considers only variable operating costs • Does not take cost of investments into account • Supply function: p = S (q) -1 Quantity • Inverse supply function: q = S(p ) © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 13 Market equilibrium Price Supply curve Willingness to sell market equilibrium market clearing price Demand curve Willingness to buy volume transacted © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington Quantity 14 Supply and Demand Price supply equilibrium point demand Quantity © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 15 Market equilibrium q = D(p ) = S(p ) * -1 * -1 * p = D (q ) = S (q ) * Price supply market clearing price demand volume transacted © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington * * • Sellers have no incentive to sell for less • Buyers have no incentive to buy for more Quantity 16 Centralized auction • Producers enter their bids: quantity and price – Bids are stacked up to construct the supply curve • Consumers enter their offers: quantity and price – Offers are stacked up to construct the demand curve • Intersection determines the market equilibrium: – Market clearing price – Transacted quantity © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington Price Quantity 17 Centralized auction • Everything is sold at the market clearing price • Price is set by the “last” unit sold • Marginal producer: – Sells this last unit – Gets exactly its bid • Infra-marginal producers: – Get paid more than their bid – Collect economic profit • Extra-marginal producers: – Sell nothing © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington Price supply Extra-marginal Inframarginal demand Quantity Marginal producer 18 Bilateral transactions • Producers and consumers trade directly and independently • Consumers “shop around” for the best deal • Producers check the competition’s prices • An efficient market “discovers” the equilibrium price © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 19 Efficient market • All buyers and sellers have access to sufficient information about prices, supply and demand • Factors favouring an efficient market – number of participants – Standard definition of commodities – Good information exchange mechanisms © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 20 Examples • Efficient markets: – Open air food market – Chicago mercantile exchange • Inefficient markets: – Used cars © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 21 Consumer’s Surplus • Buy 5 apples at 10¢ • Total cost = 50¢ • At that price I am getting apples for which I would have been ready to pay more • Surplus: 12.5¢ Price 15¢ Consumer’s surplus 10¢ Total cost 5 © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington Quantity 22 Economic Profit of Suppliers Price Price supply π supply Profit demand Revenue demand Cost Quantity Quantity • Cost includes only the variable cost of production • Economic profit covers fixed costs and shareholders’ returns © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 23 Social or Global Welfare Price Consumers’ surplus supply + Suppliers’ profit = Social welfare © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington demand Quantity 24 Market equilibrium and social welfare π π supply Operating point supply Welfare loss demand demand Q Market equilibrium © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington Q Artificially high price: • larger supplier profit • smaller consumer surplus • smaller social welfare 25 Market equilibrium and social welfare π π supply demand Welfare loss supply demand Operating point Q Market equilibrium © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington Q Artificially low price: • smaller supplier profit • higher consumer surplus • smaller social welfare 26 What’s “the price”? • Price = marginal revenue of supplier = marginal cost of supplier = marginal cost of consumer = marginal utility to consumer • Market price varies with offer and demand: – If demand increases • Price increases beyond utility for some consumers • Demand decreases • Market settles at a new equilibrium © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 27 What’s “the price”? – If demand decreases • Price decreases • Some producers leave the market • Market settles at a new equilibrium • In theory, there should never be a shortage © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 28 Price vs. Tariff • Tariff: fixed price for a commodity • Assume tariff = average of market price • Period of high demand – Tariff < marginal utility and marginal cost – Consumers continue buying the commodity rather than switch to another commodity • Period of low demand – Tariff > marginal utility and marginal cost – Consumers do not switch from other commodities © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 29 Concepts from the Theory of the Firm © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 30 Production function y = f ( x1,x 2 ) • y: output • x1 , x2: factors of production y y x2 fixed x1 fixed x1 x2 Law of diminishing marginal products © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 31 Long run and short run • Some factors of production can be adjusted faster than others – Example: fertilizer vs. planting more trees • Long run: all factors can be changed • Short run: some factors cannot be changed • No general rule separates long and short run © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 32 Input-output function y = f ( x1 ,x2 ) x 2 fixed The inverse of the production function is the input-output function x 1 = g ( y ) for x 2 = x 2 Example: amount of fuel required to produce a certain amount of power with a given plant © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 33 Short run cost function c SR ( y ) = w 1 × x 1 + w 2 × x 2 = w 1 × g( y ) + w 2 × x 2 • w1, w2: unit cost of factors of production x1, x2 c SR ( y ) © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington y 34 Short run marginal cost function c SR ( y ) dc SR ( y ) Convex due to law of marginal returns y dy Non-decreasing function y © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 35 Optimal production • Production that maximizes profit: max { p × y - c SR ( y ) } y d { p × y - c SR ( y ) } dy p= dc SR ( y ) dy © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington =0 Only if the price π does not depend on y perfect competition 36 Costs: Accountant’s perspective • In the short run, some costs are variable and others are fixed • Variable costs: – – – – labour materials fuel transportation Production cost [$] • Fixed costs (amortized): – equipments – land – Overheads • Quasi-fixed costs – Startup cost of power plant • Sunk costs vs. recoverable costs © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington Quantity 37 Average cost c( y ) = c v ( y ) + c f AC ( y ) = c( y) y = cv ( y ) Production cost [$] Quantity © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington y + cf y = AVC ( y ) + AFC ( y ) Average cost [$/unit] Quantity 38 Marginal vs. average cost MC AC $/unit Production © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 39 When should I stop producing? • • • • Marginal cost = cost of producing one more unit If MC > π next unit costs more than it returns If MC < π next unit returns more than it costs Profitable only if Q4 > Q1 because of fixed costs Average cost [$/unit] Marginal cost [$/unit] π Q1 Q2 © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington Q3 Q4 40 Opportunity cost • Use money to grow apples or to grow cherries? • If profit from growing cherries is larger than the profit from growing apples, growing apples has an opportunity cost • Use money to grow apples or put it in the bank where it earns interests? • Profit from growing apples must be larger than bank interest because putting money in the bank has a lower risk • Profit from a business must be compared against the “normal profit”, i.e. what putting money in the bank would bring © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 41 Costs: Economist’s perspective • Opportunity cost: – What would be the best use of the money spent to make the product ? – Not taking the opportunity to sell at a higher price represents a cost • Examples: – Use the money to grow apples or put it in the bank where it earns interests? – Growing apples or growing kiwis? • Comparisons should be made against a “normal profit” – What putting money in the bank would bring • Selling “at cost” means making a “normal profit” – Usually not good enough because it does not compensate for the risk involved in the business © 2011 D. Kirschen and the University of Washington 42