Chapter 3
Lecture Slides
1
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Chapter 3:
Probability
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Section 3.1: Basic Ideas
Definition: An experiment is a process that results in
an outcome that cannot be predicted in advance with
certainty.
Examples:



rolling a die
tossing a coin
weighing the contents of a box of cereal.
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Sample Space
Definition: The set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment is called the sample space for the
experiment.
Examples:
• For rolling a fair die, the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
• For a coin toss, the sample space is {heads, tails}.
• Imagine a hole punch with a diameter of 10 mm punches holes
in sheet metal. Because of variation in the angle of the punch
and slight movements in the sheet metal, the diameters of the
holes vary between 10.0 and 10.2 mm. For this experiment of
punching holes, a reasonable sample space is the interval
(10.0, 10.2).
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More Terminology
Definition: A subset of a sample space is called an
event.
• A given event is said to have occurred if the outcome
of the experiment is one of the outcomes in the event.
For example, if a die comes up 2, the events {2, 4, 6}
and {1, 2, 3} have both occurred, along with every
other event that contains the outcome “2”.
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Example 1
An electrical engineer has on hand a box containing
four bolts and another box containing four nuts. The
diameters of the bolts are 4, 6, 8, and 10 mm, and the
diameters of the nuts were 6, 10, 12, and 14 mm.
One bolt and one nut are chosen. Let A be the event
that the bolt diameter is less than 8, let B be the event
that the nut diameter is greater than 10, and let C be
the event that the bolt and the nut have the same
diameter.
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Example 1 cont.
1. Find the sample space for this experiment.
2. Specify the subsets corresponding to the events
A, B, and C.
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Combining Events
The union of two events A and B, denoted
A  B, is the set of outcomes that belong either
to A, to B, or to both.
In words, A  B means “A or B.” So the event
“A or B” occurs whenever either A or B (or both)
occurs.
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Example 2
Let A = {1, 2, 3} and B = {2, 3, 4}.
What is A  B?
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Intersections
The intersection of two events A and B, denoted
by A  B, is the set of outcomes that belong to A
and to B. In words, A  B means “A and B.”
Thus the event “A and B” occurs whenever both
A and B occur.
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Example 3
Let A = {1, 2, 3} and B = {2, 3, 4}.
What is A  B?
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Complements
The complement of an event A, denoted Ac, is
the set of outcomes that do not belong to A. In
words, Ac means “not A.” Thus the event “not
A” occurs whenever A does not occur.
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Example 4
Consider rolling a fair sided die. Let A be the
event: “rolling a six” = {6}.
What is Ac = “not rolling a six”?
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Mutually Exclusive Events
Definition: The events A and B are said to be mutually
exclusive if they have no outcomes in
common.
More generally, a collection of events A1 , A2 ,..., An
is said to be mutually exclusive if no two of them have
any outcomes in common.
Sometimes mutually exclusive events are referred to as disjoint
events.
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Probabilities
Definition: Each event in the sample space has a
probability of occurring. Intuitively, the
probability is a quantitative measure of how
likely the event is to occur.
Given any experiment and any event A:
 The expression P(A) denotes the probability that the
event A occurs.
 P(A) is the proportion of times that the event A would
occur in the long run, if the experiment were to be
repeated over and over again.
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Axioms of Probability
1. Let S be a sample space. Then P(S) = 1.
2. For any event A, 0  P( A)  1 .
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B.) More generally, if
A1 , A2 ,.....are mutually exclusive events, then
P( A1  A2  ....)  P( A1 )  P( A2 )  ...
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A Few Useful Things
• For any event A,
P(AC) = 1 – P(A).
• Let  denote the empty set. Then
P(  ) = 0.
• If S is a sample space containing N equally likely
outcomes, and if A is an event containing k
outcomes, then P(A) = k/N.
• Addition Rule (for when A and B are not mutually
exclusive):
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
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Example 5
A target on a test firing range consists of a bull’s-eye
with two concentric rings around it. A projectile is fired
at the target. The probability that it hits the bull’s-eye is
0.10, the probability that it hits the inner ring is 0.25,
and the probability that it hits the outer ring is 0.45.
1. What is the probability that the projectile hits the
target?
2. What is the probability that it misses the target?
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Example 6
An extrusion die is used to produce aluminum rods.
Specifications are given for the length and diameter of
the rods. For each rod, the length is classified as too
short, too long, or OK, and the diameters is classified as
too thin, too thick, or OK. In a population of 1000 rods,
the number of rods in each class are as follows:
Length
Too Short
OK
Too Long
Too Thin
10
38
2
Diameter
OK
3
900
25
Too Thick
5
4
13
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Example 6 (cont.)
1. What is the probability that a randomly chosen
rod is too short?
2. If a rod is sampled at random, what is the
probability that it is neither too short or too
thick?
HW 3.1: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8
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Section 3.2: Conditional Probability
and Independence
Definition: A probability that is based on part of the
sample space is called a conditional probability.
Let A and B be events with P(B)  0. The conditional
probability of A given B is
P( A  B)
P( A | B) 
.
P( B)
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Back to Example 6
What is the probability that a rod will have a
diameter that is OK, given that the length is too
long?
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Independence
Definition: Two events A and B are independent if the
probability of each event remains the same whether
or not the other occurs.
• If P(A)  0 and P(B)  0, then A and B are
independent if P(B|A) = P(B) or, equivalently,
P(A|B) = P(A).
• If either P(A) = 0 or P(B) = 0, then A and B are
independent.
• These concepts can be extended to more than two
events.
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Example 6 (cont.)
• If an aluminum rod is sampled from the
sample space of 1000 rods, find the
P(too long) and P(too long| too thin). Are
these probabilities different? Why or why not?
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The Multiplication Rule
• If A and B are two events and P(B)  0, then
P(A  B) = P(B)P(A|B).
• If A and B are two events and P(A)  0, then
P(A  B) = P(A)P(B|A).
• If P(A)  0, and P(B)  0, then both of the above
hold.
• If A and B are two independent events, then
P(A  B) = P(A)P(B).
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Extended Multiplication Rule
• If A1, A2,…, An are independent results, then for each
collection of Aj1,…, Ajm of events
• In particular,
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Example 7
A system contains two components, A and B,
connected in a series. The system will function
only if both components function. The
probability that A functions is 0.98 and the
probability that B functions is 0.95. Assume that
A and B function independently. Find the
probability that the system functions.
HW 3.2: 3, 5, 6, 7, 11
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Section 3.3: Random Variables
Definition: A random variable assigns a
numerical value to each outcome in a
sample space.
Definition: A random variable is discrete if its
possible values form a discrete set.
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Example 8
The number of flaws in a 1-inch length of copper
wire manufactured by a certain process varies from
wire to wire. Overall, 48% of the wires produced
have no flaws, 39% have one flaw, 12% have two
flaws, and 1% have three flaws. Let X be the
number of flaws in a randomly selected piece of
wire. Write down the possible values of X and the
associated probabilities, providing a complete
description of the population from which X was
drawn.
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Probability Mass Function
• The description of the possible values of X and the
probabilities of each has a name: the probability mass
function.
Definition: The probability mass function
(pmf) of a discrete random variable
X is the function p(x) = P(X = x).
• The probability mass function is sometimes called the
probability distribution.
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Cumulative Distribution Function
• The probability mass function specifies the
probability that a random variable is equal to a given
value.
• A function called the cumulative distribution
function (cdf) specifies the probability that a random
variable is less than or equal to a given value.
• The cumulative distribution function of the random
variable X is the function F(x) = P(X ≤ x).
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More on a Discrete Random Variable
Let X be a discrete random variable. Then
 The probability mass function of X is the function
p(x) = P(X = x).
 The cumulative distribution function of X is the
function F(x) = P(X ≤ x).
 F ( x)   p(t )   P( X  t ) .
tx
tx
  p( x)   P( X  x)  1, where the sum is over all the
x
x
possible values of X.
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Example 8 (cont.)
Recall the example of the number of flaws in a
randomly chosen piece of wire. The following is
the pmf: P(X = 0) = 0.48, P(X = 1) = 0.39, P(X =
2) = 0.12, and P(X = 3) = 0.01. Compute the cdf
of the random variable X that represents the
number of flaws in a randomly chosen wire.
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Mean and Variance for Discrete Random
Variables
• The mean (or expected value) of X is given by
 X   xP( X  x) ,
x
where the sum is over all possible values of X.
• The variance of X is given by
 X2   ( x   X ) 2 P( X  x)
x
  x 2 P ( X  x)   X2 .
x
• The standard deviation is the square root of the
variance.
34
Example 9
A certain industrial process is brought down for
recalibration whenever the quality of the items produced
falls below specifications. Let X represent the number
of times the process is recalibrated during a week, and
assume that X has the following probability mass
function.
x
p(x)
0
0.35
1
0.25
2
0.20
3
0.15
4
0.05
Find the mean and variance of X.
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The Probability Histogram
• When the possible values of a discrete random
variable are evenly spaced, the probability mass
function can be represented by a histogram, with
rectangles centered at the possible values of the
random variable.
• The area of the rectangle centered at a value x is equal
to P(X = x).
• Such a histogram is called a probability histogram,
because the areas represent probabilities.
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Probability Histogram for the Number of
Flaws in a Wire (Example 8)
The pmf is: P(X = 0) = 0.48, P(X = 1) = 0.39,
P(X=2) = 0.12, and P(X=3) = 0.01.
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Example 9 (cont.)
Construct a probability histogram for the
example with the number of weekly
recalibrations (Example 9).
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Continuous Random Variables
• A random variable is continuous if its probabilities
are given by areas under a curve.
• The curve is called a probability density function
(pdf) for the random variable. Sometimes the pdf is
called the probability distribution.
• The function f(x) is the probability density function of
X.
• Let X be a continuous random variable with
probability density function f(x). Then



f ( x)dx  1.
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Computing Probabilities
Let X be a continuous random variable with
probability density function f(x). Let a and b be
any two numbers, with a < b. Then
b
P(a  X  b)  P(a  X  b)  P(a  X  b)   f ( x)dx.
a
In addition,
P( X  a )  P( X  a )  
a

f ( x)dx

P( X  a)  P( X  a)   f ( x)dx.
a
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More on Continuous Random Variables
• Let X be a continuous random variable with
probability density function f(x). The cumulative
distribution function of X is the function
x
F ( x)  P( X  x)   f (t )dt.

• The mean of X is given by

 X   xf ( x)dx.

• The variance of X is given by

   ( x   X )2 f ( x)dx
2
X


  x 2 f ( x)dx   X2 .

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Example 10
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Section 3.4:
Linear Functions of Random Variables
If X is a random variable, and a and b are
constants, then

aX b  a X  b,

2
2 2
 aX

a
X
b

 aX b  a  X
HW 3.3: 3, 5, 6, 7, 11
,
.
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More Linear Functions
If X and Y are random variables, and a and b are
constants, then
aX bY  aX  bY  a X  bY .
More generally, if X1, …, Xn are random
variables and c1, …, cn are constants, then the
mean of the linear combination c1 X1+…+cn Xn is
given by
c X c X
1 1
2
2 ...cn X n
 c1X1  c2 X 2  ...  cn X n .
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Two Independent Random Variables
If X and Y are independent random variables,
and S and T are sets of numbers, then
P( X  S and Y T )  P( X  S ) P(Y T ).
More generally, if X1, …, Xn are independent
random variables, and S1, …, Sn are sets, then
P( X 1  S1 , X 2  S2 ,K , X n  Sn )
 P( X 1  S1 ) P( X 2  S2 )L P( X n  S n ) .
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Variance Properties
If X1, …, Xn are independent random variables,
then the variance of the sum X1+ …+ Xn is given
2
2
2
2
by

     ....   .
X1  X 2 ... X n
X1
X2
Xn
If X1, …, Xn are independent random variables
and c1, …, cn are constants, then the variance of
the linear combination c1 X1+ …+ cn Xn is given
by
2
2 2
2 2
2 2
 c X c X
1 1
2
2 ...cn X n
 c1  X1  c2 X2  ....  cn X n .
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More Variance Properties
If X and Y are independent random variables
with variances X2 and Y2 , then the variance of
the sum X + Y is

2
X Y
   .
2
X
2
Y
The variance of the difference X – Y is
 X2 Y   X2  Y2 .
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Example 11
An object with initial temperature T0 is placed in an
environment with ambient temperature Ta. According
to Newton’s law of cooling, the temperature T of the
object is given by T = cT0 + (1 – c)Ta, where c is a
constant that depends on the physical properties of the
object and the elapsed time. Assuming that T0 has mean
25 oC and standard deviation of 2 oC, and Ta has mean
5 oC and standard deviation of 1 oC. Find the mean of T
when c = 0.25. Assuming that T0 and Ta are
independent, find the standard deviation of T at that
time.
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Independence and Simple Random
Samples
Definition: If X1, …, Xn is a simple
random sample, then X1, …, Xn may be
treated as independent random variables,
all from the same population.
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Properties of X
If X1, …, Xn is a simple random sample from a
population with mean  and variance 2, then the
sample mean X is a random variable with
X  
 X2 
2
n
.
The standard deviation of X is
X 

n
.
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Example 12
The lifetime of a light bulb in a certain
application has mean 700 hours and standard
deviation 20 hours. The light bulbs are packaged
12 to a box. Assuming that light bulbs in a box
are a simple random sample of light bulbs, find
the mean and standard deviation of the average
lifetime of the light bulbs in a box.
HW 3.4: 3, 4, 10, 14
Supp: 4, 6, 8, 12, 13
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Standard Deviations of Nonlinear
Functions of Random Variables
If X is a random variable whose standard deviation σx is
small, and if U is a function of X, then
𝑑𝑈
𝜎𝑈 ≈
𝜎𝑋
𝑑𝑋
In practice, we evaluate the derivative dU/dX at the
observed value of X.
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Standard Deviations of Nonlinear
Functions of Random Variables
If X1, X2 , …, Xn are a random variables whose standard
deviations σx1, σx2 , …, σxn are small, and if U is a
function of X1, X2 , …, Xn, then
𝜎𝑈 ≈
𝜕𝑈
𝜕𝑋1
2
2
𝜎𝑥1
𝜕𝑈
+
𝜕𝑋2
2
2
𝜎𝑥2
𝜕𝑈
+⋯+
𝜕𝑋𝑛
2
2
𝜎𝑥𝑛
In practice, we evaluate the partial derivatives at the
observed points (X1, X2 , …, Xn).
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Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Probability and rules
Conditional probability
Independence
Random variables: discrete and continuous
Probability mass functions
Probability density functions
Cumulative distribution functions
Means and variances for random variables
Linear functions of random variables
Mean and variance of a sample mean
54
Problem Workshop 3.4.3
A process that fills plastic bottles with a beverage has a
mean fill volume of 2.013 L and a standard deviation of
0.005 L. A case contains 24 bottles. Assuming that the
bottles in a case are a simple random sample of bottles
filled by this method, find the mean and standard
deviation of the average volume per bottle in a case.
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Problem Workshop 3.4.10
A gas station earns $2.60 in revenue for each gallon of
regular gas it sells, $2.75 for each gallon of midgrade
gas, and $2.90 for each gallon of premium gas. Let X1,
X2, and X3 denote the number of gallons of regular,
midgrade, and premium gasoline sold in a day. Assume
that X1, X2, and X3 have means 1=1500, 2=500, and
3 =300, and standard deviations 1 = 180, 2 = 90 1 =
40, respectively.
a) Find the mean daily revenue.
b) Assuming X1, X2, and X3 to be independent, find the
standard deviation of the daily revenue.
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Problem Workshop 3.4.11
The number of miles traveled per gallon of gasoline for
a certain car has a mean of 25 miles and a standard
deviation of 2 miles. The tank holds 20 gallons.
a) Find the mean number of miles traveled per tank.
b) Assume the distances traveled are independent for
each gallon of gas. Find the standard deviation of
the number of miles traveled per tank.
c) The car owner travels X miles on 20 gallons of gas
and estimates her gas mileage as X/20. Find the
mean of the estimated gas mileage.
d) Assuming the distances traveled are independent for
each gallon of gas, find the standard deviation of the
estimated gas mileage.
57
Example
Assume the mass of a rock is measured to be m = 674 ±1g,
and the volume of the rock is measured to be V= 261 ±0.1
mL. The density D of the rock is given by D = m/V.
Estimate the density and find the standard deviation of the
estimate. Is it better to upgrade the instrument that measures
mass or volume to reduce the standard deviation of the
density?
58
Problem Workshop 3.4.14
One way to measure the water content of a soil is to
weigh the soil both before and after drying it in an oven.
The water content is W = (M1-M2)/M1, where M1 is the
mass before drying and M2 is the mass after drying.
Assume that M1 = 1.32 ±0.01 kg and M2 = 1.04 ±0.01
kg.
a) Estimate W, and find the standard deviation of the
estimate.
b) Which would provide a greater reduction in the
standard deviation of W: reducing the standard
deviation of M1 to 0.005 kg or reducing the standard
deviation of M2 to 0.005 kg?
59