Warm-up The mean grade on a standardized test is 88 with a standard deviation of 3.4. If the test scores are normally distributed, what is the probability that a person scored less than an 84? MEAN & STANDARD DEVIATION Section 6.1B Warm-up The probability that a person fails the 9th grade is 0.22. Let x = the number of people out of 3 who fail the 9th grade. Write the probability distribution of x. What about if there were 4 people? Mean Value of Random Variable • Describes where the probability distribution of x is centered. • Symbol is x • Where do you think the mean is located on the problem we did as a warm-up? Standard Deviation • Describes the variation of the x distribution. • Symbol is x • If it’s small, then x is close to the mean. If it’s large then there’s more variability. Flip 3 coins – what’s the mean number of heads. x=# heads p(x) 0 1 1 3 2 3 8 8 3 8 1 8 1 3 3 1 x 0 1 2 3 8 8 8 8 x x 3 8 12 8 x 1.5 6 8 3 8 Formula x x p(x) • It’s also known as the Expected value and is written E(x). Apgar scores – 1 min. after birth and again 5 min. Possible values are from 0 to 10. Find the mean. x P(x) 0 1 2 3 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.005 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.02 0.04 0.17 0.38 0.25 0.12 0.01 What about the standard deviation? • How do you think we find it? Variance: 2 x x Standard Deviation: 2 x p(x) 2 x Apgar scores – Calculate the standard deviation x P(x) 0 1 2 3 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.005 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.02 0.04 0.17 0.38 0.25 0.12 0.01 Find Mean & Standard Deviation: x = # cars at red light P(x) 0 0.13 1 0.21 2 0.28 3 0.31 4 0.07 1. Ex. 2. 3. x = possible winnings P(x) 5 0.1 7 0.31 8 0.24 10 0.16 14 0.19 Find the mean Find the Standard Deviation Find the probability that x is within one deviation from the mean. 500 raffle tickets are sold at $2 each. You bought 5 tickets. What’s your expected winning if the prize is a $200 tv.? There are four envelopes in a box. One envelope contains a $1 bill, one contains a $5, one contains a $10, and one a $50 bill. A person selects an envelope. Find the expected value of the draw. What should we charge for the game for it to be fair? A person selects a card from a deck. If it is a red card, he wins $1. If it is a black card between or including 2 and 10, he wins $5. If it is a black face card, he wins $10, and if it is a black ace, he wins $100. Find the expectation of the game. What would it be if it cost $10 to play? What should I charge to make it a fair game? On a roulette wheel, there are 38 slots numbered 1 through 36 plus 0 and 00. Half of the slots from 1 to 36 are red; the other half are black. Both the 0 and 00 slots are green. Suppose that a player places a simple $1 bet on red. If the ball lands in a red slot, the player gets the original dollar back, plus an additional dollar for winning the bet. If the ball lands in a different-colored slot, the player loses the dollar bet to the casino. What is the player’s average gain? Homework • Page 354 (9 – 12),15, 16, 18, 19, 28, 29, 30)