Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)

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3 November 2014
Kursmål: NOK 300
Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Ut av turbulensen i 2015
Jon D. Gjertsen
Direct: +47 24 13 21 78
Email: [email protected]
Please refer to important disclosures on the last 7 pages of this document
2014 har vært et turbulent år for Norwegian
Aksjekurs siste 12 måneder – NAS
 Norwegian-aksjen har hatt en
turbulent reise det siste året.
Share price (NOK)
300
 2014 inntjeningen har vært skuffende:
- Oppstartsproblemer på langdistanse
- Kraftig vekst har presset “yielden”
- Økt prispress i Norden etter SAS
hentet ny egenkapital
250
 Med lavere vekst og fokus på bedrede
marginer i 2015 venter vi en kraftig
inntjeningsbedring.
200
150
Oct-13
Jan-14
Kilder: Factset, Pareto Securities Equity Research
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
 Norwegian har nest lavest
enhetskostnad i Europa, og er
bedreposisjonert for god lønnsomhet
enn de fleste konkurrentene.
2
Voksesmertene bør avta i 2015
Resultat per aksje og produksjon – NAS
EPS adj. (NOK)
Produksjonsvekst per år – NAS
Produksjon - ASK (bn km)
70
45
36
35
26
25
15
14
12
3
5
7
60
(5)
50
33
31
40
30
30
20
10
(15)
2010
40
35
25
23
19
18
18
19
15
20
1
2009
Production growth y/y (%)
50
2011 2012
EPS adj.
2013
(12)
2014e 2015e 2016e
ASK
0
 Inntjeningen i 2013-14 har vært skuffende, drevet
av kraftig kapasitetsvekst, oppstartsproblemer på
langdistanse og prispress i Norden.
 Kapasitetsveksten har vært svært høy i både 2013
og 2014, og strategien til selskapet er å prise
aggressivt på nye ruter for å vinne
markedsandeler.
Kilder: Norwegian, Pareto Securities Equity Research
17
9
10
5
14
10
7
10
0
2009
2011
2013
2015e
2017e
2019e
9
7
2
2
2021e
 I 2015 faller kapasitetsveksten til 5%, som bør
støtte bedre realiserte priser («yield»).
 Konkurransebildet i Norden ser bedre ut inn i
vintersesongen, med flat kapasitet for SAS,
Norwegian ned og utenlandske aktører som
trekker ut kapasitet.
3
Betydelig kostnadsfortrinn i Norden
Enhetskostnader inkludert finansiering – Norwegian og SAS
Enhetskostnader inkl. finansiering* (NOK)
0.80
 Norwegian har et betydelig
kostnadsfortrinn til SAS, med 40%
lavere enhetskostnader.
0.70
0.07
0.60
-40%
0.40
0.40
0.04
0.46
0.24
0.20
0.17
0.13
0.00
SAS
Fuel
Other
NAS
Financing
* Siste 12 måneder, justert til oljepris på USD 100/fat. Finansiering inkluderer leasingkostnader og rentekostnader.
Kilder: Selskapsrapporter, Pareto Securities Equity Research
 Dette er drevet av et fortrinn på tvers
av samtlige kostnadskategorier, men
med nyere og mer effektive fly som
den viktigste driveren.
 Selv om SAS vil kunne redusere
kostnadene fremover, vil Norwegian
opprettholde et betydelig fortrinn i
overskuelig fremtid.
4
Nest lavest kostnader i Europa og et godt produkt støtter lønnsom vekst
Enhetskostnader – Europeiske lavkostselskaper*
Enhetskostnad eksl. leasing (NOK)
0.60
0.52
0.50
0.44
0.09
0.04
0.40
0.16
0.16
0.30
0.03
0.03
0.20
0.17
0.16
0.10
0.00
0.07
0.05
Air Berlin
easyJet
Personnel
Airport/handling
* 12 måneder rullerende enhetskostnader.
Kilder: Selskapsrapporter, Pareto Securities Equity Research
0.42
0.03
0.16
 Til tross for en betydelig mindre flåte
enn easyJet og Ryanair samt høye
nordiske lønninger, har Norwegian
oppnådd den nest laveste
enhetskostnaden i Europa.
0.40
0.05
0.15
0.25
0.01
0.06
0.03
0.13
0.13
0.10
0.04
0.07
Vueling
NAS
Tech. maintenance
0.01
0.07
0.03
Ryanair
Fuel
Other
 Ryanair har et strukturelt fortrinn da
de benytter sekundærflyplasser.
Norwegian har dermed lavest
kostnader blant selskaper som flyr ut
fra primærflyplasser.
 Kostnadene bør fortsatt reduseres
fremover gjennom flåtefornyelse og
større andel av trafikken utenfor
Norden.
5
Betydelige flyordre sikrer langsiktig vekst
Dagens flåte og flybestillinger – NAS
Aircraft (no.)
500
150
400
300
 Gjennom “megaorderen” i januar 2012
har Norwegian bestillinger på 256 fly
levert frem til 2022.
256
200
 Norwegian hadde per utgangen av
Q3’14 en flåte på 100x fly. 10x av disse
er eldre Boeing 737-300 som tas ut av
trafikk i Q4’14 og 3x 737-800 leaser
som leveres tilbake i Q4’14.
100
100
0
Current fleet
Firm orders*
Kilder: Selskapsrapporter, Pareto Securities Equity Research
Purchase rights
 Norwegian har opsjoner på ytterligere
150x fly, derav 100x fra Boeing og 50x
fra Airbus.
6
Gjeldsfinansiering sikret – egenkapitalbehov bør være håndterbart
Finansieringsbehov for kommiterte flybestillinger
Capex (USDbn)
16
Cash flow (NOKbn)
15
0.6
12
EK behov og operasjonell kontantstrøm 2014-16e
4.2
0.2
10
8
3.9
2.0
2.8
Debt
repay
Asset
sale
14.5
8.3
5
2.7
9.8
4
1.5
1.5
0
Capex
Pre-paid
SL&B
Debt financing Req. equity
 På våre estimater har Norwegian en gjenværende
capex på USD 14.5bn/NOK 93bn frem til 2022.
 Selskapet har fleksibilitet til å dekke deler av
behovet gjennom sale & leaseback transaksjoner.
Norwegian har også eksportkreditt garantier, og
har dermed sikret 85% belåning av ordrene.
Kilder: Airbus, Boeing, Selskapsdata, Pareto Securities Equity Research
2.2
0
Req.
equity
Cash
2013
OCF'14e OCF'15e OCF'16e Other
capex*
 Norwegian bruker for øyeblikket ikke
bankfasiliteter for å dekke forskuddsbetalinger
(PDP), men bør ha fleksibilitet til å kunne bruke
dette.
 Vi estimerer et kapitalbehov på USD 1.5bn/
NOK 9.8bn frem til 2022, som bør kunne dekkes av
operasjonell kontantstrøm.
7
Flåte på minst 253 fly ved utgangen av 2022 – betydelig potensiale
Estimert flåteutvikling per flytype
Flåte (antall fly)
300
250
234
252 253
198
200
163
100
50
 Fullinvestert vil Norwegian kunne
oppnå en inntjening på inntil NOK 100
per aksje.
139
150
46
32 40
68
57 62
99
85 90
117
0
2007
B787
2010
A320 neo
2013
B737 Max 8
Kilder: Selskapsrapporter, Pareto Securities Equity Research
2016e
M80
 Fra en flåte på 100 fly per utgangen av
Q3’14 vil Norwegian med nåværende
bestillinger nå en total flåte på minst
253 fly innen utgangen av 2022.
2019e
B733
2022e
B738
 Dersom selskapet gjør alvor av
planene om å starte leasingselskap kan
det øke totalflåten til ~350 fly per
utgangen av 2022.
8
APPENDIX
9
Estimater – Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
P&L
Revenues
Operating expenses excl. leasing
EBITDAR
Leasing
EBITDA
Depreciation and amortisation
EBIT
Net interest
Other financial items
Income from associates
Pre-tax profit
Tax expense
Net profit
Non-controlling interest
Net profit attributable
Non-recurring items in EBITDA
Non-recurring financial items
EBITDAR adj.
EBITDA adj.
EBIT adj.
Pre-tax profit adj.
Net profit adj.
Per share data
EPS
EPS adj.
FCFPS
DPS
NOKm
Q1'14
Q2'14
Q3'14
Q4'14e
Q1'15e
Q2'15e
Q3'15e
Q4'15e
2012
2013
2014e
2015e
2016e
2017e
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
3,551
(3,766)
(215)
(400)
(615)
(162)
(777)
(32)
(18)
14
(813)
218
(595)
0
(595)
5,043
(4,481)
563
(469)
94
(179)
(85)
(40)
(22)
11
(137)
265
128
0
128
6,338
(5,120)
1,217
(491)
727
(194)
532
(38)
(2)
13
505
(131)
374
0
374
4,558
(4,025)
534
(453)
81
(198)
(117)
(43)
0
19
(141)
38
(103)
0
(103)
3,922
(3,946)
(24)
(366)
(391)
(198)
(589)
(55)
0
21
(623)
168
(455)
0
(455)
5,625
(4,556)
1,069
(367)
702
(202)
500
(57)
0
21
464
(125)
339
0
339
6,667
(4,870)
1,797
(371)
1,426
(206)
1,220
(56)
0
24
1,188
(321)
867
0
867
5,109
(4,260)
848
(375)
473
(207)
267
(56)
0
25
236
(64)
172
0
172
12,859
(11,037)
1,822
(1,033)
789
(385)
404
(68)
254
33
623
(392)
231
0
231
15,579
(12,796)
2,784
(1,284)
1,499
(530)
970
(64)
(515)
47
437
(204)
233
0
233
19,490
(17,391)
2,098
(1,812)
286
(733)
(447)
(153)
(42)
56
(586)
390
(196)
0
(196)
21,323
(17,633)
3,690
(1,480)
2,210
(812)
1,398
(224)
0
91
1,265
(342)
924
0
924
25,015
(20,515)
4,500
(1,679)
2,822
(902)
1,919
(291)
0
115
1,743
(471)
1,273
0
1,273
30,783
(25,467)
5,316
(2,049)
3,268
(1,055)
2,213
(352)
0
115
1,976
(534)
1,442
0
1,442
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
103
(18)
(318)
(718)
(879)
(898)
(646)
28
(22)
535
66
(113)
(143)
(104)
(74)
(2)
1,291
801
606
581
424
0
0
534
81
(117)
(141)
(103)
0
0
(24)
(391)
(589)
(623)
(455)
0
0
1,069
702
500
464
339
0
0
1,797
1,426
1,220
1,188
867
0
0
848
473
267
236
172
(329)
254
2,150
1,117
732
697
502
584
(515)
2,200
916
386
368
262
56
(42)
2,042
230
(504)
(600)
(429)
0
0
3,690
2,210
1,398
1,265
924
0
0
4,500
2,822
1,919
1,743
1,273
0
0
5,316
3,268
2,213
1,976
1,442
(16.68)
(18.13)
1.90
3.59
(2.91)
(41.59)
10.45
11.85
(28.68)
(2.88)
(2.88)
(18.91)
(12.72)
(12.72)
(24.26)
9.47
9.47
6.00
24.24
24.24
(13.73)
4.82
4.82
(11.79)
6.59
14.29
(21.31)
0.00
6.53
7.36
7.13
0.00
(5.53)
(12.07)
(88.84)
0.00
25.81
25.81
(44.55)
0.00
35.56
35.56
(89.14)
0.00
40.31
40.31
(115.72)
0.00
NOK
"
"
"
Kilder: Selskapsrapporter, Pareto Securities Equity Research
10
Estimater – Nøkkeltall – Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Key ratios
Revenue growth y/y
ASK growth y/y
RPK growth y/y
Load factor
Unit revenue growth y/y
Yield growth y/y
Unit cost growth y/y
Unit cost growth excl. fuel y/y
EBITDAR margin
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin
EBT margin
Net profit margin
Credit metrics
NIBD/LTM EBITDA
IBD/LTM EBITDA
NIBD/ Equity
IBD/Equity
OCF/IBD
EBITDA adjusted/Net Interest
Equity/Total Assets
Equity/Capital employed
%
Q1'14
Q2'14
Q3'14
Q4'14e
Q1'15e
Q2'15e
Q3'15e
Q4'15e
2012
2013
2014e
2015e
2016e
2017e
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
22.3
47.7
50.0
77.3
(20.3)
(21.6)
(2.7)
(4.0)
(6.1)
(17.3)
(21.9)
(22.9)
(16.8)
25.7
40.7
46.0
79.8
(13.5)
(16.7)
(2.2)
(3.5)
11.2
1.9
(1.7)
(2.7)
2.5
29.9
36.0
41.4
84.6
(7.8)
(11.3)
(1.0)
(3.8)
19.2
11.5
8.4
8.0
5.9
20.4
21.6
26.4
80.9
(4.6)
(8.2)
(4.9)
(1.5)
11.7
1.8
(2.6)
(3.1)
(2.3)
10.5
10.7
12.2
78.3
(0.5)
(1.8)
(8.7)
(8.9)
(0.6)
(10.0)
(15.0)
(15.9)
(11.6)
11.5
6.7
7.8
80.6
4.2
3.1
(7.3)
(6.2)
19.0
12.5
8.9
8.3
6.0
5.2
(0.1)
1.1
85.6
5.5
4.2
(5.2)
(3.5)
27.0
21.4
18.3
17.8
13.0
12.1
6.4
7.0
81.4
4.7
4.1
(2.7)
(3.0)
16.6
9.3
5.2
4.6
3.4
22.1
18.0
16.8
78.5
3.8
4.9
(1.0)
(3.1)
14.2
6.1
3.1
4.8
1.8
21.2
32.4
32.1
78.3
(9.8)
(9.6)
(6.3)
(6.7)
17.9
9.6
6.2
2.8
1.5
25.1
35.5
40.1
81.0
(10.9)
(13.8)
(2.4)
(2.9)
10.8
1.5
(2.3)
(3.0)
(1.0)
9.4
5.4
6.4
81.7
3.6
2.6
(5.8)
(5.1)
17.3
10.4
6.6
5.9
4.3
17.3
18.8
19.0
81.8
(0.8)
(0.9)
(2.3)
(3.7)
18.0
11.3
7.7
7.0
5.1
23.1
24.4
24.6
82.0
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.4)
(1.6)
17.3
10.6
7.2
6.4
4.7
x
"
"
"
"
"
%
"
6.0
10.6
2.0
3.5
2.9
(15.6)
12.3
40.1
27.7
38.6
2.6
3.6
4.5
1.2
12.1
49.6
46.3
55.0
2.7
3.3
6.0
16.9
14.6
66.0
29.1
32.9
3.1
3.5
6.4
1.6
14.1
71.3
18.1
21.2
4.2
4.9
16.8
(6.4)
10.5
58.4
8.2
10.0
3.6
4.4
7.9
10.8
11.3
54.8
5.3
6.7
2.8
3.5
5.3
21.2
14.6
58.9
4.6
5.8
2.9
3.6
4.7
6.9
14.9
58.6
4.8
7.0
1.6
2.3
2.7
9.4
20.3
38.9
2.9
4.3
1.6
2.4
2.7
7.0
18.6
55.9
29.1
32.9
3.1
3.5
6.4
1.2
14.1
71.3
4.6
5.8
2.9
3.6
4.7
8.4
14.9
58.6
5.0
6.7
2.9
3.9
4.8
7.5
14.6
51.4
6.0
7.9
3.1
4.1
5.6
6.7
14.5
51.4
Kilder: Selskapsrapporter, Pareto Securities Equity Research
11
Estimater – Balanse – Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Assets
Intangible assets
Tangible fixed assets
Fixed asset investments
Non-current assets
Inventory
Investments
Receivables
Cash and cash equivalents
Current assets
Total assets
NOKm
Q1'14
Q2'14
Q3'14
Q4'14e
Q1'15e
Q2'15e
Q3'15e
Q4'15e
2012
2013
2014e
2015e
2016e
2017e
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
252
10,951
487
11,690
73
50
2,324
3,160
5,608
17,298
490
12,916
594
14,000
76
69
2,441
2,339
4,924
18,924
352
14,010
618
14,980
76
0
2,532
1,431
4,040
19,020
352
14,715
707
15,774
89
0
1,954
1,072
3,116
18,889
352
15,671
936
16,960
81
0
2,567
1,575
4,223
21,183
352
16,444
892
17,689
84
0
2,722
2,107
4,914
22,602
352
17,329
673
18,354
80
0
2,664
2,383
5,127
23,481
352
18,216
731
19,299
100
0
2,190
2,539
4,830
24,129
242
8,517
254
9,013
68
11
1,097
1,731
2,907
11,920
251
10,151
446
10,848
74
49
1,623
2,166
3,912
14,760
352
14,715
707
15,774
89
0
1,954
1,072
3,116
18,889
352
18,216
731
19,299
100
0
2,190
2,539
4,830
24,129
352
24,358
1,100
25,810
123
0
2,687
4,602
7,411
33,222
352
31,919
1,961
34,232
150
0
3,279
5,973
9,402
43,634
Liabilities and equity
Paid-in capital
Other equity
Total equity
Other non-current liabilities
Long term borrowings
Non-current liabilities
Current liabilities
Short term borrowings
Air traffic settlement liabilities
Current liabilities
Total liabilities
Total liabilities and equity
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
1,172
947
2,119
856
6,579
7,434
2,262
788
4,695
7,745
15,179
17,298
1,174
1,125
2,299
767
7,554
8,321
2,966
759
4,579
8,304
16,625
18,924
1,180
1,593
2,773
874
8,180
9,054
3,179
859
3,156
7,194
16,248
19,020
1,180
1,490
2,669
874
8,547
9,422
2,698
859
3,241
6,798
16,220
18,889
1,180
1,035
2,214
874
9,979
10,854
2,499
859
4,757
8,115
18,969
21,183
1,180
1,373
2,553
874
10,378
11,253
3,309
859
4,629
8,797
20,049
22,602
1,180
2,241
3,420
874
11,247
12,121
3,344
859
3,736
7,939
20,061
23,481
1,180
2,413
3,593
874
11,947
12,821
3,024
859
3,831
7,714
20,536
24,129
1,161
1,260
2,421
476
4,178
4,654
1,756
1,349
1,740
4,845
9,499
11,920
1,170
1,577
2,747
1,039
5,744
6,783
1,895
768
2,567
5,230
12,013
14,760
1,180
1,490
2,669
874
8,547
9,422
2,698
859
3,241
6,798
16,220
18,889
1,180
2,413
3,593
874
11,947
12,821
3,024
859
3,831
7,714
20,536
24,129
1,180
3,686
4,865
874
17,983
18,858
3,710
859
4,930
9,499
28,357
33,222
1,180
5,128
6,308
874
24,818
25,692
4,528
859
6,247
11,634
37,326
43,634
Net debt
"
4,206
5,974
7,607
8,334
9,263
9,130
9,722
10,267
3,796
4,346
8,334
10,267
14,241
19,704
Kilder: Selskapsrapporter, Pareto Securities Equity Research
12
Estimater – Kontantstrøm – Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Operating activities
Profit before tax
Paid taxes
Depreciation, amortisation and impairment
Changes in air traffic settlement liabilities
Other adjustments
Net cash flow from operating activities
NOKm
Q1'14
Q2'14
Q3'14
Q4'14e
Q1'15e
Q2'15e
Q3'15e
Q4'15e
2012
2013
2014e
2015e
2016e
2017e
"
"
"
"
"
"
(813)
0
162
2,128
(375)
1,102
(137)
0
179
(116)
487
414
505
0
194
(1,423)
444
(280)
(141)
0
198
85
84
227
(623)
0
198
1,516
(804)
287
464
0
202
(128)
652
1,190
1,188
0
206
(893)
98
599
236
0
207
95
134
671
623
(3)
385
531
484
2,022
437
0
530
827
583
2,377
(586)
0
733
675
640
1,462
1,265
0
812
590
79
2,747
1,743
0
902
1,098
166
3,910
1,976
0
1,055
1,318
198
4,547
Net cash flow from investing activities
"
(1,034)
(1,902)
(746)
(903)
(1,155)
(975)
(1,090)
(1,093)
(2,766)
(2,126)
(4,586)
(4,313)
(7,045)
(8,615)
Net cash flow from financing activities
"
927
660
118
317
1,371
318
767
578
1,370
184
2,023
3,034
5,197
5,440
FX impact on cash and cash equivalents
Net change in cash and cash equivalents
"
"
(1)
994
5
(823)
2
(906)
0
(359)
0
503
0
532
0
276
0
156
0
626
(2)
433
6
(1,095)
0
1,467
0
2,062
0
1,371
Total cash flow
Free Cash Flow
Cash EBIT (CEBIT)
"
"
"
995
68
(1,650)
(828)
(1,488)
(1,808)
(908)
(1,026)
(19)
(359)
(677)
(822)
503
(868)
(1,546)
532
215
(273)
276
(491)
336
156
(422)
(620)
626
(744)
(1,977)
435
251
(627)
(1,101)
(3,124)
(4,300)
1,467
(1,566)
(2,103)
2,062
(3,134)
(4,223)
1,371
(4,069)
(5,348)
Kilder: Selskapsrapporter, Pareto Securities Equity Research
13
Estimater – Inntekter – Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Operating income
Passenger revenue
Ancillary passenger revenues
Other revenue
Total revenues
Key operational data
Available Seat Kilometres (ASK)
Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK)
Passengers
Unit revenue
Unit revenue incl. ancillary
Yield
Ticket revenue per passenger
Ancillary revenue per passenger
Key ratios
Revenue growth y/y
Passenger revenue growth y/y
ASK growth y/y
RPK growth y/y
Unit revenue growth y/y
Yield growth y/y
Load factor
Change in load factor y/y
NOKm
Q1'14
Q2'14
Q3'14
Q4'14e
Q1'15e
Q2'15e
Q3'15e
Q4'15e
2012
2013
2014e
2015e
2016e
2017e
"
"
"
"
2,900
523
128
3,551
4,249
687
107
5,043
5,334
854
150
6,338
3,711
707
140
4,558
3,178
599
145
3,922
4,708
796
121
5,625
5,576
941
150
6,667
4,133
818
158
5,109
11,201
1,406
253
12,859
13,382
1,758
440
15,579
16,193
2,771
525
19,490
17,596
3,153
574
21,323
20,738
3,669
609
25,015
25,668
4,494
621
30,783
m km
"
m
NOK
"
"
"
"
9,420
7,279
4.863
0.31
0.38
0.40
593
107.5
12,012
9,585
6.404
0.35
0.42
0.44
661
107.3
13,905
11,762
7.064
0.38
0.46
0.45
749
120.9
11,159
9,028
5.911
0.33
0.41
0.41
628
119.6
10,429
8,165
5.305
0.30
0.38
0.39
599
112.9
12,815
10,332
7.064
0.37
0.44
0.46
667
112.7
13,888
11,893
7.412
0.40
0.48
0.47
752
126.9
11,868
9,658
6.509
0.35
0.43
0.43
635
125.6
25,920
20,352
17.685
0.43
0.50
0.55
632
79.5
34,318
26,881
20.712
0.39
0.45
0.50
645
84.9
46,496
37,654
24.242
0.35
0.42
0.43
665
114.3
49,000
40,049
26.291
0.36
0.44
0.44
669
119.9
58,223
47,652
29.815
0.36
0.43
0.44
696
123.1
72,444
59,396
36.499
0.35
0.42
0.43
703
123.1
%
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
22.3
17.2
47.7
50.0
(20.3)
(21.6)
77.3
1.2
25.7
21.4
40.7
46.0
(13.5)
(16.7)
79.8
2.9
29.9
26.3
36.0
41.4
(7.8)
(11.3)
84.6
3.2
20.4
16.4
21.6
26.4
(4.6)
(8.2)
80.9
3.1
10.5
9.6
10.7
12.2
(0.5)
(1.8)
78.3
1.0
11.5
10.8
6.7
7.8
4.2
3.1
80.6
0.8
5.2
4.5
(0.1)
1.1
5.5
4.2
85.6
1.0
12.1
11.4
6.4
7.0
4.7
4.1
81.4
0.5
22.1
23.1
18.0
16.8
3.8
4.9
78.5
(0.8)
21.2
19.5
32.4
32.1
(9.8)
(9.6)
78.3
(0.2)
25.1
21.0
35.5
40.1
(10.9)
(13.8)
81.0
2.7
9.4
8.7
5.4
6.4
3.6
2.6
81.7
0.7
17.3
17.9
18.8
19.0
(0.8)
(0.9)
81.8
0.1
23.1
23.8
24.4
24.6
(0.5)
(0.7)
82.0
0.1
Kilder: Selskapsrapporter, Pareto Securities Equity Research
14
Estimater – Kostnader – Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS)
Operating expenses
Personell expenses
Sales/distribution expenses
Aviation fuel
Airport charges
Handling charges
Technical maintenance expenses
Other expenses
Other losses (gains) - net
Operating expenses
NOKm
Q1'14
Q2'14
Q3'14
Q4'14e
Q1'15e
Q2'15e
Q3'15e
Q4'15e
2012
2013
2014e
2015e
2016e
2017e
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
(760)
(121)
(1,275)
(577)
(376)
(272)
(487)
103
(3,766)
(771)
(107)
(1,639)
(716)
(473)
(333)
(470)
28
(4,481)
(843)
(116)
(1,945)
(793)
(547)
(349)
(454)
(74)
(5,120)
(700)
(111)
(1,412)
(673)
(452)
(334)
(343)
0
(4,025)
(816)
(130)
(1,294)
(619)
(402)
(293)
(394)
0
(3,946)
(798)
(111)
(1,581)
(752)
(486)
(344)
(484)
0
(4,556)
(817)
(112)
(1,779)
(772)
(527)
(338)
(524)
0
(4,870)
(723)
(114)
(1,473)
(695)
(464)
(344)
(448)
0
(4,260)
(2,068)
(275)
(3,748)
(1,730)
(1,077)
(793)
(1,017)
(329)
(11,037)
(2,478)
(339)
(4,694)
(2,185)
(1,339)
(928)
(1,322)
490
(12,796)
(3,074)
(454)
(6,270)
(2,759)
(1,847)
(1,288)
(1,754)
56
(17,391)
(3,153)
(467)
(6,127)
(2,838)
(1,879)
(1,320)
(1,849)
0
(17,633)
(3,589)
(532)
(7,341)
(3,237)
(2,144)
(1,475)
(2,197)
0
(20,515)
(4,373)
(648)
(9,338)
(3,945)
(2,614)
(1,815)
(2,734)
0
(25,467)
"
(400)
(469)
(491)
(453)
(366)
(367)
(371)
(375)
(1,033)
(1,284)
(1,812)
(1,480)
(1,679)
(2,049)
Key assumptions
NOK/USD average
Oil price, brent
Jet fuel cost
Jet fuel cost all-in
x
USD/bbl
USD/ton
"
6.09
108.5
993
1,093
5.99
108.4
965
1,065
6.25
108.1
963
1,063
6.58
89.4
846
946
6.25
95.0
871
971
6.25
95.0
863
963
6.25
100.0
900
1,000
6.25
100.0
900
1,000
5.82
110.8
1,021
1,121
5.88
108.3
984
1,084
6.23
103.8
941
1,041
6.25
97.6
884
984
6.25
105.0
945
1,045
6.25
110.0
990
1,090
Unit cost distribution
Personell expenses
Sales/distribution expenses
Aviation fuel
Airport charges
Handling charges
Technical maintenance expenses
Other expenses
Leasing cost
Unit cost
Unit cost excl. leasing
Unit cost excl. fuel
NOK/ASK
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
0.08
0.01
0.14
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.05
0.04
0.45
0.41
0.32
0.06
0.01
0.14
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.41
0.38
0.28
0.06
0.01
0.14
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.40
0.36
0.26
0.06
0.01
0.13
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.40
0.36
0.27
0.08
0.01
0.12
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.41
0.38
0.29
0.06
0.01
0.12
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.38
0.36
0.26
0.06
0.01
0.13
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.04
0.03
0.38
0.35
0.25
0.06
0.01
0.12
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.39
0.36
0.27
0.08
0.01
0.14
0.07
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.45
0.41
0.31
0.07
0.01
0.14
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.42
0.39
0.29
0.07
0.01
0.13
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.41
0.38
0.28
0.06
0.01
0.13
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.39
0.36
0.27
0.06
0.01
0.13
0.06
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.38
0.35
0.26
0.06
0.01
0.13
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.38
0.35
0.25
%
"
"
52.7
(2.7)
(4.0)
42.9
(2.2)
(3.5)
38.1
(1.0)
(3.8)
15.4
(4.9)
(1.5)
4.8
(8.7)
(8.9)
1.7
(7.3)
(6.2)
(4.9)
(5.2)
(3.5)
5.9
(2.7)
(3.0)
22.7
(1.0)
(3.1)
15.9
(6.3)
(6.7)
35.9
(2.4)
(2.9)
1.4
(5.8)
(5.1)
16.3
(2.3)
(3.7)
24.1
(0.4)
(1.6)
Leasing cost
Key ratios
Cost growth y/y
Unit cost growth y/y
Unit cost excl. fuel y/y
Kilder: Selskapsrapporter, Pareto Securities Equity Research
15
Disclaimers and disclosures
V. 10.2014
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Disclaimers and disclosures
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“Buy”
“Hold”
“Sell”
Pareto Securities Research expects this financial instrument’s total return to exceed 10% over the next six months
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AAA
AA+ / AA / AAA+ / A / ABBB+ / BBB / BBBBB+ / BB / BBB+ / B / BCCC+ /CCC/ CCC-
Best Quality
Strong ability for timely payments
Somewhat more exposed for negative changes
Adequate ability to meet payments. Some elements of protection.
Speculative risk. Future not well secured
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Default a likely option
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information between certain business areas and sub-business areas within the Pareto Securities Group, where conflicts of interest may arise and to safeguard the impartialness of the employees. For example, the Corporate
Finance departments and certain other departments included in the Pareto Securities Group are surrounded by arrangements, so-called Chinese Walls, to restrict the flows of sensitive information from such departments.
The internal guidelines also include, without limitation, rules aimed at securing the impartialness of, e.g., analysts working in the Pareto Securities Research departments, restrictions with regard to the remuneration paid to
such analysts, requirements with respect to the independence of analysts from other departments within the Pareto Securities Group rules concerning contacts with covered companies and rules concerning personal account
trading carried out by analysts.
Distribution restriction
The securities referred to in this publication or report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about and observe any such
restrictions. This publication or report is not intended for and must not be distributed to private customers in the US, or retail clients in the United Kingdom, as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
This research report is only intended for and may only be distributed to institutional investors in the United States and U.S. entities seeking more information about any of the issuers or securities discussed in this report
should contact Auerbach Grayson & Company at 25 West 45th Street New York, NY 10036 Tel. 1 212-453-3549 or Pareto Securities Inc. at 150 East 52nd Street, New York, NY 10022, Tel. 212 829 4200.
Auerbach Grayson & Company is a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of the FINRA & SIPC. Investment products provided by or through Auerbach Grayson &
Company or Pareto Securities Research are not FDIC insured may lose value and are not guaranteed by Auerbach Grayson & Company or Pareto Securities Research. Investing in non-U.S. securities may entail certain risks.
This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The securities of
non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to SEC reporting and other requirements. The information available about non-U.S. companies may be limited, and non-U.S. companies are generally not subject to the
same uniform auditing and reporting standards as U.S. companies. Fluctuations in the values of national currencies, as well as the potential for governmental restrictions on currency movements, can significantly erode
principal and investment returns. Market rules, conventions and practices may differ from U.S. markets, adding to transaction costs or causing delays in the purchase or sale of securities. Securities of some non-U.S.
companies may not be as liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies. Auerbach Grayson & Company and/or Pareto Securities Research may have material conflicts of interest related to the production or distribution
of this research report which, with regard to Pareto Securities Research, are disclosed herein.
Pareto Securities Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is a member of FINRA & SIPC. U.S. To the extent required by applicable U.S. laws and regulations, Pareto Securities
Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of this publication. Investment products provided by or through Pareto Securities Inc. or Pareto Securities Research are not FDIC insured, may lose value and are not guaranteed by
Pareto Securities Inc. or Pareto Securities Research. Investing in non-U.S. securities may entail certain risks. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription, nor shall it or any part of it form
the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with or subject to SEC reporting and other requirements. The information
available about non-U.S. companies may be limited, and non-U.S. companies are generally not subject to the same uniform auditing and reporting standards as U.S. companies. Market rules, conventions and practices may
differ from U.S. markets, adding to transaction costs or causing delays in the purchase or sale of securities. Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies.
18
Disclaimers and disclosures
Distribution in Singapore
Pareto Securities Pte Ltd holds a Capital Markets Services License is an exempt financial advisor under Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 (“FAA”) of Singapore and a subsidiary of Pareto Securities AS.
This report is directed solely to persons who qualify as "accredited investors", "expert investors" and "institutional investors" as defined in section 4A(1) Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 (“SFA”) of Singapore. This
report is intended for general circulation amongst such investors and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should seek advice from
a financial adviser regarding the suitability of any product referred to in this report, taking into account your specific financial objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase any
such product. Please contact Pareto Securities Pte Ltd, 16 Collyer Quay, # 27-02 Income at Raffles, Singapore 049318, at +65 6408 9800 in matters arising from, or in connection with this report.
Additional provisions on Recommendations distributed in the Canada
Canadian recipients of this research report are advised that this research report is not, and under no circumstances is it to be construed as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of or an offer to buy any securities that may be
described herein. This research report is not, and under no circumstances is it to be construed as, a prospectus, offering memorandum, advertisement or a public offering in Canada of such securities. No securities
commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed upon this research report or the merits of any securities described or discussed herein and any representation to the contrary is an
offence. Any securities described or discussed within this research report may only be distributed in Canada in accordance with applicable provincial and territorial securities laws. Any offer or sale in Canada of the securities
described or discussed herein will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable
securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the dealer registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made. Under no circumstances is the
information contained herein to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada nor should it be construed as being tailored to the needs of the recipient. Canadian recipients are advised that Pareto
Securities AS, its affiliates and its authorized agents are not responsible for, nor do they accept, any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this research report or the information
contained herein.
Distribution in United Kingdom
This publication is produced in accordance with COBS 12.3 as Non-Independent Research and approved under part IV article 19 of The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “FPO”) by
Pareto Securities Limited for communication in the United Kingdom only to investment professionals as that term is defined in article 19(5) of the FPO. This publication is issued for the benefit of persons who qualify as
eligible counterparties or professional clients and should be made available only to such persons and is exempt from the restriction on financial promotion in s21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 in reliance on
provision in the FPO.
Copyright
This publication or report may not be mechanically duplicated, photocopied or otherwise reproduced, in full or in part, under applicable copyright laws. Any infringement of Pareto Securities Research´s copyright can be
pursued legally whereby the infringer will be held liable for any and all losses and expenses incurred by the infringement.
19
Disclaimers and disclosures
Appendix B
Appendix A
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading ST Regulation § 3-11, letters d-f, ref the
Securities Trading Act Section 3-10
Disclosure requirements pursuant to the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulations section 3-10 (2) and section 311 (1), letters a-b
Pareto Securities AS does not alone or - together with affiliated companies or persons – owns a portion of the
shares exceeding 5 % of the total share capital in any company where a recommendation has been produced or
distributed by Pareto Securities AS.
Pareto Securities AS or its affiliates own as determined in accordance with Section 13(d) of the Exchange Act, 1 %
or more of the equity securities of Equinox Offshore Accommodation Ltd and Pioneer Marine Inc.
Pareto Securities AS may hold financial instruments in companies where a recommendation has been produced
or distributed by Pareto Securities AS in connection with rendering investment services, including Market Making.
Please find below an overview of material interests in shares held by employees in Pareto Securities AS, in
companies where a recommendation has been produced or distributed by Pareto Securities AS. “By material
interest” means holdings exceeding a value of NOK 50 000.
C o mp any
A nalyst ho ld ing s
AF Gruppen
T o t al ho ld ing s
120,600
Austevoll Seafood
1,930,681
Avance Gas Holding Ltd.
333,690
C o mp any
Panoro Energy
Petroleum Geo-Services
Polarcus
A nalyst ho ld ing s
T o t al ho ld ing s
325,452
1,709,400
51,900
Awilco LNG
4,560,000
Prosafe
2,424,850
Bonheur
2,285,750
Protector Forsikring
19,857,600
BW LPG Ltd.
176,231
Deep Sea Supply
394,650
Det norske oljeselskap
2,095,778
DNB
10,479,935
DNO International
483,606
DOF
5,016,300
Dolphin Group
Farstad Shipping
Frontline 2012
Gjensidige Forsikring
Golden Ocean Group
200
Grieg Seafood
8,330,900
1,463,000
5,572,644
Sparebank 1 SM N
5,061,313
Sparebank 1 SR-Bank
4,761,355
1,153,512
Statoil
1,555,776
Stolt-Nielsen
290,708
Kongsberg Gruppen
1,274,550
Storebrand
2,899,063
Lerøy Seafood Group
5,618,250
Subsea 7
8,345,672
Tanker Investments
Telenor
Norske Skogindustrier
512,358
TGS-NOPEC
Norwegian Air Shuttle
694,710
Vardia Insurance Group
1,287,845
Gulf Keyst one Pet roleum
Prosaf e
Avance Gas Holding Lt d.
Haf nia Tankers
Prospect or Of f shore Drilling
Axis Of f shore
Half wave
Quest erre Energy
B2 Holding
Harkand Global Holdings
Rever Of f shore
Bien Sparebank
Hercules Of f shore
Robot ic Drilling Syst ems
Blue Marine Tech Group
Hit ec Vision
Salamander
Blue Wall Shipping
Jaya Holdings
Sanjel Corporat ion
Bluewat er
Kist ef os
Shamaran
Bluewat er
Klaveness Ship Holding
Solør Bioenergi
Boa Of f shore
Komplet t Bank
Songa Of f shore
Chemical Transport at ion Company
Kongsberg Gruppen
St ar Bulk Carriers
Color Group
Magseis
Tanker Invest ment s
Cult ura Bank
Navig8 Chemical
TiZir
Deep Sea Supply
Navig8 Crude Tankers
Topaz Marine
DigiPlex Fet
Navig8 Product Tankers
TTS Group
DOF
Nordic American Of f shore
Vardia Insurance Group
Dorian LPG
Noreco
West ern Bulk
Appendix C
Disclo sure requirements pursuant to the No rwegian Securities Trading ST Regulatio n § 3-11(4)
D ist r ib ut io n o f r eco mmend at io ns
R eco mmend at io n
% d ist r ib ut io n
Buy
62 %
Hold
29 %
Sell
9%
89,280
2,241,900
1,218,075
73,060
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding A
578,200
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA
5,261,175
Yara International
This overview is updated monthly (this overview is for the period 30.09.2013 – 30.09.2014).
136,160
Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge
408,000
Orkla
Polarcus Limit ed
Aurora LPG
Xcit e Energy
SalM ar
Ship Finance Ltd
439,210
Greenship
World Wide Supply
Spectrum
Odfjell Drilling
Pioneer Public Propert ies III
At lant ic Of f shore
Ocean Yield
2,851,295
Selvaag Bolig
51,840
Golar LNG
Faroe Pet roleum
Royal Caribbean Cruises
Sparebanken M øre
Ocean Yield
Pioneer Marine
Ardmore Shipping Corporat ion
World Shipholding
945,810
80,550
Global Ship Lease
Nort h Energy
494,725
14,178,474
Philly Tankers
American Shipping Company
Exmar
285,565
Norsk Hydro
Pharmaq
Global Rig Company
740,625
884,250
M arine Harvest Group
Gjensidige Forsikring
Aker Philadelphia Shipyard
REC Solar
1,485,099
3,445,350
Personalhuset
Aker ASA
Nort h At lant ic Drilling
Höegh LNG
Kongsberg Automotive
Genel Energy
E-CO
1,044,483
75,900
Paret o Bank
AINMT Holdings
344,034
Havila Shipping
InterOil
Oro Negro
Flumill
REC Silicon
Seadrill
193,158
Fjord Line
Af rican Pet roleum
402,000
Sandnes Sparebank
2,052,000
Af rica Oil
Questerre Energy
788,900
3,475,914
Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto Securities AS have prepared or distributed
investment recommendation, where Pareto Securities AS have been lead manager/co-lead manager or have
rendered publicly known not immaterial investment banking services over the previous 12 months:
D ist r ib ut io n o f r eco mmend at io ns ( t r ansact io ns* )
R eco mmend at io n
% d ist r ib ut io n
Buy
75 %
Hold
25 %
Sell
0%
6,559,748
* Companies under coverage with which Pareto Securities Group has on-going or completed public investment banking services in the previous 12 months
This overview is updated monthly (last updated 31.08.2014).
This overview is update monthly (last updated 30.09.2014)

20
Disclaimers and disclosures
Appendix D
This section applies to research reports prepared by Pareto Securities AB.
Disclosure of positions in financial instruments
The beneficial holding of the Pareto Group is 1 % or more of the total share capital of the following companies included in P areto Securities AB’s research coverage universe: None
The Pareto Group has material holdings of other financial instruments than shares issued by the following companies included in Pareto Securities AB’s research coverage universe: None
Disclosure of assignments and mandates
Overview over issuers of financial instruments where Pareto Securities AB has prepared or distributed investment recommendation, where Pareto Securities AB has been lead manager or co -lead manager
or has rendered publicly known not immaterial investment banking services over the previous twelve months:
Africa Oil
FastPartner
NGEX Resources
Brandos
Lucara Diamond
ShaM aran Petroleum
Delarka Holding
Lundin M ining
Shelton Petroleum
Etrion Corporation
Members of the Pareto Group provide market making or other liquidity providing services to the following companies included in Pareto Securities AB’s research coverage universe:
Africa Oil
Lucara Diamond
Tethys Oil
Cavotec
Rusforest
Tribona
Delarka Holding
ShaM aran Petroleum
Trigon Agri
Endomines
Members of the Pareto Group have entered into agreements concerning the inclusion of the company in question in Pareto Securities AB’s research coverage universe with the following companies: None.
This overview is updated monthly (last updated 15.10.2014).
21
Disclaimer
Appendix E
This part applies to research reports prepared by Pareto Securities Oy.
Disclosure of positions in financial instruments
The beneficial holding of the Pareto Group is 1% or more of the total share capital of the following companies included in Pareto Securities Oy’s research coverage universe: N/A.
The Pareto Group has material holdings of other financial instruments than shares issued by the following companies included in Pareto Securities Oy’s research coverage universe: N/A.
Disclosure of assignments and mandates
During the past 12 months, members of the Pareto Group have been lead manager or co-lead manager of publicly disclosed issues or offers of or with regard to securities of the following companies
included in Pareto Securities Oy’s research coverage universe: N/A.
During the past 12 months, members of the Pareto Group have provided other investment banking services to and received compensation for such services from the following companies included in
Pareto Securities Oy’s research coverage universe: N/A.
Members of the Pareto Group provide market making or other liquidity providing services to the following companies included i n Pareto Securities Oy’s research coverage universe:
N/A.
Previous rating system (up to 4 July 2012)
Rating Expected total return in six to twelve months
OUTPERFORM - The stock is expected to outperform the return on our Nordic sector universe
NEUTRAL - The stock is expected to perform in line with the return on our Nordic sector universe
UNDERPERFORM - The stock is expected to underperform the return on our Nordic sector universe
Neither Pareto Securities Oy nor any other member of the Pareto Group has entered into an agreement with the Company to write this report.
22
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