What are Your Market Numbers?

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Farmers’ Market Federation of New York Conference
What are Your Market Numbers?
March 7, 2013
Presentation Topics
1. About Market Ventures, Inc.
2. Customer analysis
3. Vendor analysis
4. Market records
Market Ventures, Inc.
Consulting / Development / Operations
• National consultants on public markets and food-based
economic development projects
• Lead Author, Public Markets and Community Revitalization
• Conduct public market feasibility studies and research
throughout the United States
By Ward Market, Ottawa
Rochester Public Market
Grand Rapids Downtown Market
Market Ventures, Inc.
Recent Projects
• Grand Rapids Downtown Market (opening July 2013)
• Charlottesville City Market District Plan
• Rochester Public Market Renovation & Expansion Plan
• Boise Public Market Feasibility Study
• Grand Traverse Regional Market/Food Hub Feasibility Study
• Fort Collins Community Marketplace Feasibility Study
• Salt Lake City Public Market District Plan
• Broome County Regional Farmers’ Market Feasibility Study
• NYC Wholesale Farmers’ Market Feasibility Study and
Development Plan
• SchoolFood Plus Initiative (NYC) Program Evaluation
• Milwaukee Public Market Feasibility Study & Concept Plan
• Tioga County Cooperative Market & Distribution Study
• Reading Terminal Market Merchandising Plan
•
Developer/Operator: Bronx Sunday Market, Portland
Public Market
•
President, Farm to Market, Inc.
•
Co-owner, Maine’s Pantry
Questions to Answer about Customers
• Who’s coming to the market now?
• Who is not coming that you would like to
attract?
– Higher spending consumers
– Low income residents
– Children
•
•
•
•
Why are customers coming to the market?
Where else do they shop for food?
How did they hear about the Market?
What are their visit characteristics?
– How long do they stay
– What do they buy
– How much do they spend
• Customer concerns or issues
Customer Research Methods
• Qualitative methods
– Key informant interviews
– Focus groups
• Quantitative methods
–
–
–
–
Customer counts
Dot surveys
Intercept surveys
Web-based surveys (e.g., Survey Monkey, Zoomerang)
• Trade area demographic data
– Trade areas determined by intercept surveys
– Compare current customers with residents within the trade areas
Qualitative Methods
• Key informant interviews
– Select respondents
– Prepare questions but allow flexibility to
explore topics as they emerge
– Identify major issues
• Focus Groups
– Efficient means to interview a group of
market customers
– Invite representative range of customers
(gender, age, location of residence,
income, household composition)
– Guided conversation – prepare questions
– Record or have person taking notes
– Good method for testing ideas
Rapid Market Assessment
Boise Capital City Public Market
• Saturday open-air farmers’ market in Downtown Boise
• ~160 vendors (31% ag, 23% prepared food, 45% arts)
• Rapid Market Assessment methods
– 14 volunteers gathered attendance at 15 market entrances for
10 minutes per hour over 4 hour period
– Dot survey set up at 2 locations with 4 flip charts (10 volunteers)
– Each respondent given 4 dots
• Dot survey questions
– What is your primary reason for coming to the Market today?
– How often have you shopped at the Market this year?
– About how much have you or will you spend at the Market
today?
– How much have you or will you spend at other Downtown
businesses today?
Rapid Market Assessment
Boise Capital City Public Market
2011
2009
Agriculture Products
39%
38%
Music
2%
2%
•
Estimated 17,443 visitors
•
45% of visitors come for the atmosphere,
39% for the ag products
Arts
5%
8%
Atmosphere
45%
45%
How much spent given in 6 categories; can’t
capture very high sales which would skew
average upward
Prepared Foods
8%
4%
Children’s Programs
1%
3%
•
•
•
Can approximate average customer sale by
multiplying midpoint of ranges by number
of respondents, and dividing resulting total
sales by total number of respondents (~$19)
Can approximate total market daily sales by
dividing total attendees by estimated group
size (2) and multiplying by average sale
(17,443 ÷ 2 x $19=$168,000)
How Much Spend at Market Today?
Boise Capital City Public Market
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
$1-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
50+
Customer Intercept Survey
•
Survey design
– Exit survey – what did you do today at the market, not
what you “usually” do
– Clear questions without ambiguity
– Keep short but complete
– Test survey instrument
•
Sample size
– More the better, allows to dig deep into data
– 100 minimum, 300 preferred
– Conduct over multiple days and repeat annually
•
Training
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
Speak to customers as they leave the market
Avoid selection bias
Knowledgeable and cheerful interviewers
One person takes survey
Don’t change questions
Record interviewers’ observations
Manager review all surveys soon after completed
Customer Intercept Survey: Demographic Profile
Gender
Age
90
80
Male
31%
70
60
50
Female
69%
40
30
20
10
0
Under 25
25-39
40-54
55-70
Race
Over 70
Hispanic
8%
Black
0%
• Conducted two Saturdays
• 262 Surveys Completed
Other
6%
White
86%
Customer Intercept Survey: Demographic Profile
Zip Codes (most prevalent)
Zip Codes
Out of State
3%
Outside
Boise
13%
83709
83646
83716
83704
83703
83714
Boise
(83702-716)
84%
83705
83712
83706
83702
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Q23. What is your home zip code? (N=253)
25.0%
30.0%
Customer Intercept Survey: Demographic Profile
Household Income 2010
25.0%
Household Income 2010
20.0%
15.0%
Upper
income
>$75k
42%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Under
$15,000
•
$15,000 to $25,001 to $50,001 to $75,001 to $100,001 to
Over
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000 $150,000 $150,000
Boise median household income 2009 = $50,633 (quickfacts.census.gov)
Q26. What range includes your total household income, before taxes, for 2010? (N=215)
Lower
inocme
<=$25k
12%
Middle
income
$25-75k
46%
Customer Intercept Survey: Visit Characteristics
Travel Time to Market
Travel Mode to the Market
56.3%
Bus
2%
Walk
14%
Bicycle
12%
21.1%
19.5%
Car
72%
2.7%
Less than 5
min
5 - 15 min
16 - 30 min
0.4%
31 - 60 min
More than 60
min
Groupsize
Q1. To get to the Market today, did you walk, bicycle, drive
in a car, or take a bus? (N=254)
Q2. How long did you travel to get to the Market today?
(N=261)
Q3. Including yourself, how many people came with you to
the Market? (N=258)
Average
2.1
Min
1
Max
12
Mode
2
48%
Mode
1 or 2
75%
Customer Intercept Survey : Visit Characteristics
Last Visit to the Market
More than a
month ago
20%
This Month
73%
Last Saturday
38%
Within the past
month
35%
First time here
7%
Q4. Before today, when was the last time you came to the Market? (N=260)
Customer Intercept Survey: Visit Characteristics
Number of Vendors
Shoppers Bought From
100
90
80
Shoppers
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1-2
3-4
5-6
7 or more
Number of Vendors
Range: 0-12
Mean: 3.5
Q5. Counting everywhere you made a purchase today, how many different vendors did you buy from? (N=245)
Customer Intercept Survey: Purchasing
What Purchased
Food to take home
85%
Food to eat in market
55%
Nonfood/crafts
21%
Bought nothing
5%
Bought all three
11%
Both foods, no crafts
37%
Food to take home only
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Q6. Did you buy any food today that you ate while in the Market? (N=247)
Q8. Did you buy food to take home or take away from the Market today? (N=251)
Q10. Did you buy any crafts or nonfood items at the Market today? (N=248)
80%
90%
Customer Intercept Survey: Purchasing
Purchases
Food to take home
Eat on premises
Crafts/nonfoods
Total
Average (among those who spent)
$29.67
$9.53
$30.88
$37.15
Average (all customers)
$23.33
$4.69
$6.01
$34.83
Min
$1.50
$0.00
$1.00
$1.50
Max
$200.00
$50.00
$160.00
$226.50
Total
$6,111.70
$1,229.50
$1,575.00
$8,916.20
17,433 customers/day ÷ 2.1 customers/group x $34.83 = ~$289,000 total market sales/day
Q7. Counting everything that you bought, how much money did you spend on food that you ate while in the
Market? (N=129)
Q9. Counting everything that you bought, how much money did you spend on food to take home or away? (N=206)
Q11. How much money did you spend on all the crafts or nonfood items you bought at the Market today? (N=51)
Mean Expenditures
Fresh Food Spending by Travel
Fresh Food Spending by Gender
$35.00
$35.00
$30.00
$30.00
$25.00
$25.00
$20.00
$20.00
$15.00
$15.00
$10.00
$10.00
$5.00
$5.00
$0.00
Male
$0.00
Female
Walk
Fresh Food Spending by Last Visit
Car
Bus
Fresh Food Spending by Income
$40.00
$40.00
$35.00
$35.00
$30.00
$30.00
$25.00
$25.00
$20.00
$20.00
$15.00
$15.00
$10.00
$10.00
$5.00
$5.00
$0.00
Bicycle
$0.00
First time here
Last Saturday
Within the past
month
More than a
month ago
<=$25k
$25-75k
>$75k
Customer Intercept Survey: Community Impact
Market Customers Shopping Patterns
in Downtown Boise
Just shopping at
the market
45%
Don't Know
5%
Shopping at
other stores
50%
Q13. While you are in downtown Boise today, do you plan to shop at any stores or businesses, or are you just
shopping at the Market? (N=251)
Customer Intercept Survey
Comparable Rankings
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Quality
Much Better
Selection
Somewhat Better
Same
Prices
Somewhat Worse
Much Worse
Q. 14-16. Compared to other places that sell similar products, would you describe the quality/selection/prices
of products at the Market as much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse?
(N=250, 252, 242)
Customer Intercept Survey
What Like Best
Atmosphere/Social Aspects
Selection/Variety/Quality
Fresh/Local Foods
Location/Accessibility
Live Music
Cleanliness/Layout
Prepared Food
Arts/Crafts
0
20
40
60
80
Q19. What things to you like best about the Capital City Public Market? (N=255)
100
120
140
Non-Customer Analysis
Customer On-Line Survey
• Means to reach shoppers
and non-shoppers
• Self-selected so unlikely to
be truly representative
• Need aggressive campaign
to encourage participation
Demand Analysis: Trade Area 1 (2 mile ring)
Findings
•
Downtown area and adjacent neighborhoods
•
Current location convenient and easily accessible –
some can walk, accessible public transportation
•
Significant competition for fresh food with upscale
supermarkets and some specialty food stores
•
Small population but expected
to increase (47,680)
•
Small average household size
(2.27)
•
Very low median age (27.2)
•
Below average household
income but expected to increase
substantially ($62,181)
•
Fairly small percentage of high
income households (27% over
$75k)
•
Low percentage family
households (common in city
locations)
•
Very high levels of educational
attainment
Trade Area Demographic Analysis
Average household income
2013
Educational Attainment
60.0%
$100,000
50.0%
$80,000
40.0%
$60,000
30.0%
$40,000
20.0%
$20,000
10.0%
$0
0.0%
2 mile ring
2-5 m band
5-20 mile
band
USA
2 mile ring
Bachelor's Degree
2-5 m band
5-20 mile
band
USA
Master's, Professional or Doctorate
Population
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2 mile ring
2-5 m band
2010
2013
2018
5-20 mile band
Source: Nielsen/Claritas, Inc., 2013
Vendor Analysis
Charlottesville City Market
Number of Vendors
• Management began reporting average numbers of
vendors per week in 2007 (83); rose to 111 in 2011
• If trends continue, the Market will have about 130
vendors by 2014
• Linear regression line (“trendline”) can be added to
chart in Excel under Layout function
• Future years are determined by substituting the nth
term in the data (here years 6, 7, and 8) for the x in
the linear equation: y=7.5*(6)+71.3
• Excel also permits exponential and other equations
which can have better fit to the data
# Vendors
Vendor Stalls & Sales
Reserved
Non-reserved
Total
Farm
46
50
96
Food
24
46
70
Crafts
32
112
144
Total
102
208
310
Reserved
Non-reserved
Total
Farm
45%
24%
31%
Food
24%
22%
23%
Crafts
31%
54%
46%
Total
33%
67%
100%
Reserved
Non-reserved
Total
Charlottesville City Market
# Vendors
Target: 50% farmer/30% food/20% crafts
2012 Stalls
Reserved
Non-reserved
Total
2010 Sales
Farm
65
Farm
$
800,201
Food
21
Food
$
396,268
Crafts
22
Crafts
$
167,969
Total
108
7
Total
$
1,364,438
Reserved
Non-reserved
2012 Stalls
115
Total
2010 Sales
Reserved
Farm
60%
Farm
59%
Food
19%
Food
29%
Crafts
20%
Crafts
12%
Total
94%
Total
92%
6%
100%
$
119,218
$
1,483,656
Non-reserved
Total
8%
100%
Charlottesville City Market: Gross Sales
City Market Sales
Charlottesville, VA
$2,000,000
$1,800,000
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Gross sales reported
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
City revenue
Vendors required to report sales daily; pay 6% of gross sales for rent
Charlottesville City Market: Gross Sales
City Market Sales
Charlottesville, VA
$2,000,000
$1,800,000
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
Gross sales reported
City revenue
Linear (Gross sales reported)
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
$-
Charlottesville City Market
Spend
Estimated Sales 2011
City Market Charlottesville
Charlottesville City Market
$4,000,000
>$50
14%
<$10
13%
$3,500,000
$3,000,000
$2,500,000
$41-50
11%
$11-20
21%
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$31-40
13%
$500,000
$21-30
28%
$-
•
Median between $21 and $30, say $25
•
Average likely higher (skewed upwards by small
number of high spending customers)
Reported sales Sales if $600/day 3,000 customers 5,000 customers
@ $25
@ $25
Farmer Analysis
County
Albemarle
Augusta
Buckingham
Culpepper
Cumberland
Fluvanna
Goochland
Greene
Louisa
Madison
Nelson
Orange
Page
Rappahannock
Rockingham
Total
Sq. Miles
Population
721
967
580
379
297
286
281
156
496
321
471
341
311
266
849
6,723
100,553
73,549
17,278
47,476
9,969
26,061
21,883
18,660
33,395
13,169
15,097
33,938
23,958
7,444
76,589
519,019
Radius if area a circle
46
Virginia
Radius if area a circle
39,490
112
8,096,604
Sources: Google Map and US Census Bureau Quick Facts
Agricultural Data Findings
Number of Farms - Virginia
90,000
Year
y = 885.81x2 - 12797x + 88531
R² = 0.9294
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
1964
1969
1974
1978
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
1964
1969
1974
1978
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
∆ 2007-2017
∆% 1997-2007
∆% 2007-2017
∆% 2007-2012
Farms - VA
80,354
64,572
52,699
49,936
51,859
44,799
42,230
41,095
47,606
47,383
54,946
62,522
15,139
15.3%
32.0%
16.0%
Farms Utilizing Direct Marketing
Direct Mktg - # of Farms - Virginia
4,500
Direct Mktg - # of Farms - Region
700
y=
4,000
1385.8e0.1785x
y = 80x + 160
R² = 0.8685
600
R² = 0.839
3,500
500
3,000
2,500
400
2,000
300
1,500
200
1,000
100
500
-
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
1992
1997
Year
Virginia
Region
1992
1,789
278
1997
1,713
267
2002
2,513
392
2007
2,855
503
2012
3,383
560
2017
4,044
640
1,189
137
Change 2007-2017
Change 2007-2017
42%
27%
2002
2007
2012
2017
Direct Marketing Sales
Direct Marketing Sales ($000s) Virginia
$45,000
Year
y = 7175.7x - 2106
R² = 0.9328
Virginia
Region
1992
$
7,036
$
848
1997
$
10,594
$
2,516
$30,000
2002
$
16,825
$
2,049
$25,000
2007
$
28,878
$
4,518
$20,000
2012
$
33,773
$
5,119
$15,000
2017
$
40,948
$
6,173
$
12,070
42%
$
1,655
37%
$40,000
$35,000
$10,000
Change 2007-2017
$5,000
Change 2007-2017
$1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
Direct Marketing Sales ($000s) Region
$7,000
y = 1054.3x - 153
R² = 0.7935
$6,000
Farms Engaged in Direct
Marketing
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
$5,000
5.0%
$4,000
5.1%
4.2%
1992
4.0%
$3,000
3.0%
$2,000
2.0%
3.3%
1997
2002
2007
1.0%
$1,000
0.0%
Virginia
$1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
Region
Farmers’ Market Federation of New York Conference
What are Your Market Numbers?
Ted Spitzer, President
www.marketventuresinc.com
[email protected]
(207) 321-2016
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