1
Liberia’s Infrastructure:
A Continental Perspective
Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic:
a multi-stakeholder effort
Banque Africaine de
Developpement
African Union
Agence Française de
Développement
Development Bank of Southern
Africa
Department for International
Development
European Union
The Infrastructure Consortium for Africa
Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau
The New Partnership for Africa’s
Development
Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory
Facility
Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Project
The World Bank
Water and Sanitation Program
Methodology and approach
 Methodology
 Data collection by local/international consultants and Bank staff
from national sources based on standardized methodology
 Baseline year for data is 2007-2008
 Approach
 Focus on benchmarking Liberia’s infrastructure against African
neighbors
 Benchmarking group includes Resource-rich countries, Low
Income Non Fragile (LIC-Non Fragile), West African neighbors,
and regional outliers
Why infrastructure matters?
Across West Africa ICT has been a significant
boost to growth, while power has been a drag
Changes in growth per capita due to changes in infrastructure
(2001-5 vs. 1991-5)
Addressing infrastructure deficiencies could boost
West African growth by 2 to 5 percentage points
Potential changes in growth per capita from improving infrastructure to level of African leader
(Mauritius)
Key Message #1
Road spending is not
adequate to rehabilitate and
maintain deteriorated network
Traffic concentrated along mining corridors
that converge on city of Monrovia
Benchmarking indicates poor condition and low paving,
alongside relatively high density and low traffic
Unit
LIC-Resource
Rich
Liberia
LIC-Non
Fragile
Classified road
density
Kms per1,000 km land area
57.1
101.4
55.9
Paving ratio
% of primary network paved
82.1
39.4
71.6
% of rural pop within 2 km
from all-season road
19.7
23.7
34.1
Average Annual Daily Traffic
1,408.2
573.9
1,287.7
54.2
17.1
38.5
79.9
60.0
86.2
15.0
32.2
29.6
GIS Rural
accessibility
Paved road traffic
2
Unpaved road
Average Annual Daily Traffic
traffic
Classified network
% in good or fair condition
condition
Over-engineering
% of main road network
over-paved relative to traffic
Maintenance and rehabilitation needs of main road
network are seriously under-funded at present
Optimal fuel levy would be very high suggesting
need for a hybrid approach to maintenance funding
Liberia is already making a significant effort
on road sector spending
The key objective is connectivity, which can be
achieved at a variety of different standards
Base scenario
Main roads
(regional)
Pragmatic scenario
Regional connectivity provided by
Same but with 50% in good condition and
800kms of 2-lane paved roads
50% in fair condition
of which 100% in good condition
National connectivity provided by
Same but with 50% in good condition and
Main roads
1,500kms of 1-lane paved roads
50% in fair condition
(national)
of which 100% in good condition
Rural connectivity provided by
Same but with 50% in good condition and
Feeder roads
5,700kms of 1-lane unpaved road
50% in fair condition
of which 100% in good condition
Urban connectivity provided by
Urban connectivity provided by 1,700kms of
Urban roads
4,300kms of paved roads putting entire paved roads putting entire population within
population within 500m of a paved road 500m of a paved road of which 50% in good
of which 100% in good condition
condition and 50% in fair condition
Cost implications of alternative standards
can be very high – a factor of two to one
US$m pa for 10 years
Investment
Improve
Expand
O&M
Upgrade
Total
Total
Base scenario
Main roads
Feeder roads
Urban roads
Other modes
Total
4.9
45.5
0.0
50.5
16.2
66.6
11.2
11.5
0.0
22.7
11.2
33.9
2.8
11.4
63.6
77.8
9.9
87.7
2.2
4.0
0.1
6.2
3.1
9.3
21.1
72.4
63.7
157.1
40.4
197.5
1.6
28.0
0.0
29.6
14.1
43.7
1.3
3.7
0.0
5.0
12.7
17.7
2.8
9.8
8.2
20.8
9.9
30.7
2.2
3.4
0.0
5.6
1.8
7.4
7.9
44.8
8.3
61.0
38.5
99.5
Pragmatic scenario
Main roads
Feeder roads
Urban roads
Other modes
Total
Road freight transport is particularly slow and
expensive in West Africa
Trade
Implicit
Road in good
density
Freight tariff
velocity(km
condition (%) (US$m per
($US/tonne-km)
/hr)
km)
Corridor
Length
(kms)
Western
2050
72
8.2
6.0
0.08
Central
3280
49
4.2
6.1
0.13
Eastern
2845
82
5.7
8.1
0.07
Southern
5000
100
27.9
11.6
0.05
Key Message #2
Freeport of Monrovia now
performing quite well by
regional standards
Benchmark indicates Freeport of Monrovia
performing relatively efficiently
Monrovia Cotonou
Abidjan
Tema
Apapa
Dakar Lome
TRAFFIC
Containers (‘000 TEU/yr)
50
158
500
420
336
331
460
General cargo (mn tonnes/yr)
0.6
1.1
na
7.9
3.4
6.1
na
EFFICIENCY
Container dwell time (days)
15
12
12
25
42
7
13
Truck processing time (hrs)
5.5
6.0
2.5
8.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3
3
48
48
3
2
9.6
48
36
41
24
60
18
13
12
Vessel pre-berth waiting (hrs)
Vessel stay (hrs)
Container crane productivity
(containers/hr)
General cargo crane productivity
(tonnes/hr)
CHARGES
Containers (US$/ TEU)
16
15
16
14
9
200
180
260
168
155
160
220
General cargo (US$/tonne)
10.5
8.5
13.5
10
8
15
9
23
Key Message #3
Resurgence of air traffic,
but safety and security issues
remain a concern
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Sierra Leone
Togo
0.25
1.88
0.32
0.07
0.16
0.23
0.30
23
7
19
8
2
8
8
11
9
5
3
5
0
67
45
0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
Cote d’Ivoire
Benin
Liberia’s air transport market is small but
competitive, but striking lack of renewal of fleet
Total seats (‘mns)
0.42 1.15
City pairs served
19
Percent of seat km
7
in older aircraft
International
market Herfindahl 0.1
index
Air transport activity rebounded following collapse
of regional carriers in early 2000s
Key Message #4
Need to consider low cost
solutions to address huge
challenge of achieving WSS MDGs
Low dependency on surface water but over half of
the population practices open defecation
Unit
Access to piped water
Access to stand posts
Access to wells/boreholes
Access to surface water
Access to flush toilets
Access to improved latrines
Access to traditional latrines
Open defecation
Domestic water consumption
Revenue collection
Distribution losses
Operating cost recovery
Connections per employee
Total hidden costs
% popn
% popn
% popn
% popn
% popn
% popn
% popn
% popn
liter/capita/day
per population served
% sales
% production
% total costs
number
% revenue
TARIFFS
Residential tariff (at 10 m3)
Non-residential tariff (at 100 m3)
Resource
Rich
12.0
12.6
49.0
23.7
1.6
6.4
54.8
27.6
Liberia
2.9
6.8
76.2
14.4
13.4
14.9
15.5
55.8
LIC
Non-Fragile
10.5
16.2
38.3
37.4
4.9
9.9
50.1
40.3
90.3
55.7
95.7
69.7
43.6
55.6
95.7
286.7
Liberia
US cents per m3
US cents per m3
44.5
221.3
75.0
92.7
28.8
34.3
100
110
195.5
158.6
123.9
121.4
Scarce
Other developing
Water
regions
Resources
60.3
3.0 – 60.0
120.7
No progress on open defecation during the last
20 years, major slump in piped water
Demographic and Health Surveys
1986
2000
2007
National
Census 2008
Water
Private tap
Public or shared tap
Protected wells
Unprotected wells
Surface water
Improved water
Unimproved water
14.6
22.4
19.1
13.8
30.1
56.1
43.9
2.5
13.2
47.3
28.1
28.1
63.0
37.0
2.9
6.8
58.7
17.5
14.4
68.4
31.9
2.4
46.0
11.7
12.4
27.5
60.1
39.9
Sanitation
Flush toilets
Improved latrines
Unimproved latrines
Open defecation
Improved sanitation
Unimproved sanitation
15.2
11.7
32.7
40.2
27.0
72.9
17.0
13.6
16.2
50.4
30.6
69.4
13.4
14.9
15.5
55.8
28.3
71.3
13.5
21.1
8.4
57.1
34.6
65.5
Water hidden costs at 124% of revenues are
towards middle of West African range
Costs of meeting WSS MDGs is very sensitive
to choice of technology for service provision
Mns USD pa
Capital expenditure of which:
Expansion Rehabilitation Total
Operations and
maintenance
Grand
total
Base scenario
Water
33.6
18.2
51.7
22.7
74.4
Sanitation
23.6
6.6
30.1
17.1
47.2
Total
57.1
24.7
81.8
39.8
121.6
Pragmatic scenario
Water
10.5
18.2
28.6
16.3
45.0
Sanitation
16.2
6.6
22.7
9.7
32.4
Total
26.6
24.7
51.4
26.0
77.4
Key Message #5
Urgent need to slash power
costs and expand capacity as a
precursor to raising access
Notable lack of power infrastructure,
planned interconnections will play key role
Exceptionally low generation capacity and access,
exceptionally high prices and even higher costs
Unit
Installed power generation capacity
Power consumption
Power outages
Firms’ reliance on own generator
Firms’ value lost due to power outages
Access to electricity
Urban access to electricity
Rural access to electricity
Growth access to electricity
Revenue collection
System losses
Cost recovery
Total hidden costs as % of revenue
Effective power tariff (US cents)
Residential at 100 kWh/mo.
Commercial at 100 kWh/mo.
Industrial at 50,000 kWh
MW/mil. people
kWH/capita
Day/year
% consumption
% sales
% population
% population
% population
% population/year
% billings
% production
% total cost
% of revenue
Liberia
43
43
43
Resource
Liberia LIC-NonRich
Fragile
43.2
2.7
20.2
205.7
87.0
107.4
14.5
12.7
10.4
44.9
97.1
21.2
7.0
2.9
6.5
46.1
0.0
15.0
79.4
0.0
57.6
28.0
0.0
3.9
2.4
0.8
81.1
93.0
93.1
25.8
24.8
23.7
53.9
55.8
84.4
168.3
186.7
68.8
Mainly thermal
Other
Developing
Regions
14.5
5.0 – 10.0
18.8
14.2
Liberia’s hidden costs of power are relatively
high by regional standards
Liberia’s power prices are the highest in Africa
Average effective tariff
(US cents per kWh)
US cents per kWh
Power costs in Liberia can be expected to fall
substantially in medium term
Capital subsidy
Operating subsidy
Depending on extent of demand growth needs
vary from US$122 to US$243 mn pa
US$m pa for 10 years
Low Demand
140MW by 2020
85
High Demand
280MW by 2020
159
48
37
36
121
37
85
Transmission & distribution
Overall total
31
5
122
80
5
243
Generation
79
201
Transmission & distribution
43
43
Investment
Generation
Transmission & distribution
Operations & maintenance
Generation
Note: Generation costs taken from World Bank, 2010
Though currently experiencing shortages, medium
term power prospects are strong in Cote d’Ivoire
 Currently WAPP’s largest power exporter supplying 1.8
TWh to Burkina Faso and Ghana
 This is already much more than Liberia’s maximum projected
demand of 1.2 TWh in 2020
 Continued to honor power export contracts during recent
crisis period 2003/07
 Significant hydro and gas resources available with
relatively low LRMC US$0.07/kWh
 Gas reserves limited but ability to tap into Ghana and
Nigeria via West Africa Gas Pipeline extension
 Strong track record of financing investment in power
generation through IPPs (circa 500 MW to date)
Guinea is the ‘sleeping giant’ of the WAPP,
but major challenges remain to be overcome
 WAPP’s largest potential power exporter with possibility of
supplying 17.4 TWh into regional pool
 This is more than ten times Liberia’s maximum projected demand
of 1.2 TWh in 2020 by 2020
 Based on development of 3,700 MW of cost-effective
hydro-power with lowest LRMC in WAPP: US$0.06/kWh
 Cost of developing power very high relative to Guinea’s
economy (>20% GDP) would entail regional finance
 Difficult political situation and weak track record on power
are additional challenges
A long term vision of regional power trade?
Key Message #6
Huge strides on GSM, next
frontiers are internet
connectivity and rural access
GSM coverage developing rapidly,
imminent access to submarine cable
Mobile footprint has grown at a much slower
pace than GSM penetration
Benchmarking indicates strong level of mobile
penetration and exceptionally low calling costs
Unit
GSM coverage
International bandwidth
Internet penetration
Landline penetration
Mobile penetration
Prices
Mobile basket
Fixed line basket
20-hour Internet package
3-min call to US
Inter-Africa tel. calls
Resource
Rich
% population
66.9
Mbps/capita
4.1
subscribers/100 people
0.1
subscribers/100 people
19.3
subscribers/100 people
11.4
Unit
US$/month
US$/month
US$/20 hours
US$/3 min
US$, mean price
Liberia
32.0
0.1
1.0
0.1
34.0
LIC NonFragile
42.4
3.0
0.1
7.5
6.4
Without
Other
Submarine Developing
Cable
Liberia
Regions
11.1
9.9
5.2
13.6
140.0
68.0
11.0
2.6
2.0
0.7
Source: Preliminary results AICD 2008
High international call charges driven both by
technology and market power
US$
Percent
cases
Call within
SSA
Call to
USA
Internet
dial-up
Internet
ADSL
Without submarine cable
67%
1.34
0.86
68
283
With submarine cable
33%
0.57
0.48
47
111
 monopoly on
international gateway
16%
0.70
0.72
37
120
 competitive
international gateway
16%
0.48
0.23
37
98
Significant potential for private expansion of
GSM coverage, but high coverage gap
Key Message #7
For Liberia to catch-up on
infrastructure within a decade
would take spending of
US$350-600 million annually
Possible infrastructure targets
over next ten years
Economic target
Social target
Install fiber optic links to neighboring
capitals and submarine cable
Provide universal access to GSM signal
and public broadband facilities
Develop 280 MW of new generation
capacity plus WAPP inter-connection
Raise electrification to 66 percent
(100 percent urban and 6 percent rural)
ICT
Power
Transport
Achieve regional (national) connectivity Provide rural road access to 80 percent of
with good quality 2-lane (1-lane)
the highest-value agricultural land, and
paved road
urban road access within 500 meters
WSS
Na.
Achieve Millennium Development Goals,
clear sector rehabilitation backlog
To meet these targets based on conventional
standards would cost US$600 mn pa for a decade
Capital
O&M
Total
ICT
31
14
45
Power
159
85
244
Transport
157
40
197
WSS
Total
82
40
122
429
179
608
$ mn/yr
A more pragmatic set of standards would bring the
cost down to US$344 mn pa overall
Capital
O&M
Total
ICT
31
14
45
Power
79
43
122
Transport
61
39
100
WSS
Total
51
26
77
222
122
344
$ mn/yr
Even more pragmatic standards represent a
huge burden relative to Liberia’s economy
Key Message #8
Liberia has been spending around
US$90 million per year on
infrastructure (around 10% GDP)
Recent infrastructure spending has been US$90 mn pa,
most investment is either ODA or PPI
Existing financing flows to Liberia,
(average over 5 year period US$ million per year)
O&M
Investment
Public
Total
Public ODA Non-OECD PPI
ICT
2
0
0
1
Total
Investment
17
18
Power
7
1
13
1
0
15
23
Transport
WSS
7
2
6
2
26
5
1
0
0
0
33
7
39
8
Total
16
9
44
2
17
72
90
19
ODA commitments increased in recent years
Existing infrastructure spending is fairly typical
though more skewed towards investment
Key Message #9
Liberia could recover a further
US$17 million annually by
addressing various inefficiencies
Inefficiencies absorb (at most) US$17 mn pa,
most of it associated with under-pricing of services
US$ million
ICT
Power Transport WSS
Total
Over manning
0.7
0.0
0.7
Losses
0.8
1.0
1.8
Under-collection
0.6
0.6
1.1
Budget Execution
0.0
Tariff Cost Recovery
Total
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.5
2.3*
9.0**
1.7
13.0
4.5
9.0
3.6
17.1
* Divides almost equally between capital and operating subsidy
** Assumes maximum cost recovery fuel levy of up to US$0.25/liter
Operational inefficiencies are relatively low
compared with the benchmarks
Under pricing of water and power adds up to
0.5 % of GDP, still low by regional standards
Unlike water, power will only become widely
affordable in medium term as costs decline
Affordability threshold
Affordability threshold
Based on illustrative five person household on US$1 per capita per day
Key Message #10
Liberia’s funding gap is at least
US$250 million per year
Depending on ambition of targets funding gap ranges
from US$250 to US$500 mn pa
US$m pa
ICT
Power
Transport
WSS
Total
Basic
Needs
Spending
Potential gains
(Gap)
(45)
19
0
(25)
(251)
23
5
(224)
(198)
39
9
(149)
(122)
8
4
(110)
(615)
90
8
(508)
(45)
19
(122)
23
(100)
39
(77)
8
(344)
90
0
5
9
4
8
(26)
(94)
(52)
(65)
(246)
Pragmatic
Needs
Spending
Potential gains
(Gap)
While gap is daunting, progress can be made by
thinking strategically about infrastructure
 External finance is on the rise in Liberia
 Strong performer on PPI and FDI
 Growing support from OECD and other partners
 Many large scale natural resource deals in the pipeline
 Potential source of fiscal revenues for infrastructure
 Could contribute directly to infrastructure provision
 Growth vision centered on corridors provides solid basis
for prioritization of investments
 Prospects to further reduce costs in medium term through
greater regional trade in WAPP area
Liberia has done relatively well so far at capturing
private infrastructure investment; albeit only for ICT
Note: PSP annual disbursements to Ghana, 2002-2007 annual
Absent any increase in spending achievement
of targets will be several decades away
In a nutshell:
cross-sectoral findings
Since the peace, there have been signs of renaissance in
Liberia’s infrastructure
 Major expansion in mobile penetration at very low prices
Free Port of Monrovia is performing relatively well
 Reasonably efficient power and water utilities
Looking ahead, key infrastructure challenges are
 Expanding power generation capacity to reduce costs
 Putting in place a sustainable basis for funding road maintenance
Addressing deficit in sanitation
In a nutshell:
Financing framework
 Redressing infrastructure situation would cost US$350600 mn. pa (depending on type of standards set)
 Recent infrastructure spending has been US$90 mn. pa
(or 10% of 2009 GDP)
 A maximum of US$17 mn. pa could be captured by
addressing inefficiencies, especially road user charging
If inefficiencies were captured the funding gap would
amount to US$250-500 mn. pa
Although daunting relative to today’s GDP, there are
reasons to be hopeful and a definite need to be strategic