slabstock market review

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SLABSTOCK FLEXIBLE FOAM
MARKET REVIEW
•
General economic outlook
•
2000 - slabstock production volumes
•
The main markets
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
•
Upholstered furniture
•
Bedding
•
Automotive
W. Dupont
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
’99 & ’00 SLABSTOCK MARKET INDICATORS
1999
2000
GDP-growth
+ 2.4% +3.4%
Raw materials price index ether
ester
- 4.0% +13.0%
- 6.0% + 8.0%
Slabstock market ether volume
+ 3.2% +4.7%
ester volume
+ 3.8% +3.5%
Upholstered furniture market
Bedding market
+ 2.0% +1.8%
+ 0.9% +0.5%
Car/LCV market
+ 1.8% +0.3%
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
SLABSTOCK MARKET REVIEW
USA- JAPAN - EU
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GDP Growth (%)
’99
’00
’01
Inflation (%)
’02
’99
’00
1.8
’01
’02
Unemployment
rate (% lab.f.)
’99
’00
’01 ’02
USA
4.2 5.2
3.5 3.3
2.5 2.1 2.2
4.2 4.0 4.2 4.5
Japan
0.2 1.9
2.3 2.0 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 -0.1
4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6
2.7 2.7
9.1 8.2 7.6 7.2
Euro zone 2.4 3.4
Source : EOCD & EC (04/01)
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
1.4
2.1 2.3 2.1
SLABSTOCK MARKET REVIEW
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
MACRO-ECONOMIC STRUCTURAL CHANGES
•
Implementation of the monetary union & EURO (12)
•
Enlargement of the EU(15): +12 countries
•
Information society
•
Immigration
•
Active labour force vs retired population changing
•
Increase in age group (65+): +27 Mio people in 25
years
•Source: OECD
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
SLABSTOCK MARKET REVIEW
’99 & ’00 POLYETHER FOAM PRODUCTION EUROPE
1999
2000
EU-15
+ 3.8%
+ 4.3%
Non EU-member states
+ 0.5%
+ 6.5%
Q1, 2001
* B/F/D/I/NL/SP
Source : Europur
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
+ 1.2% *
SLABSTOCK MARKET REVIEW
’00 POLYETHER FOAM PRODUCTION EUROPE
Europur members
in metric tonnes
EU15 +N+CH
1998
393,120
Non EU-member
states (Eastern E.)* 58,350*
Total
*Estimated
Source : Europur
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
451,470
1999
2000
416,197 433,795
106,950* 113,860*
523,147 547,655
SLABSTOCK MARKET REVIEW
’00 POLYETHER FOAM PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
Italy
Other
14%
22%
Germany
13%
Spain
5%
NL
France
6%
11%
Belgium
8%
Poland
11%
Source : Europur
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
UK
11%
SLABSTOCK MARKET REVIEW
POLYESTER FOAM PRODUCTION WEST-EUROPE
70
63
65
68
71
60
in '000
tonnes
50
40
in tonnes
Growth :
Source : Europur
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
'97
'98
'99
62.813
65.139
67.610
+3.7%+
3.8%
+ 8.6%
'00
70.623
+4.5%
SLABSTOCK MARKET REVIEW
MAIN MARKETS : UPHOLSTERED FURNITURE
•
•
INDUSTRY PROFILE
Production value ’00 : 12.2 billion EURO
Employment : 135,000
•
Key players :
 Welle,Schieder,Hukla,Steinhoff
(Germany)
 Natuzzi (Italy)
 Christy Tyler (UK)
 Dumeste (Cauval Ind.,FR)
Source : UEA
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
UPHOLSTERED FURNITURE
MARKET SEGMENTATION
•
•
•
2/3 fabric, 1/3 leather
High end
Medium
Low end
Volume
10%
35%
55%
Value
15%
45%
40%
Contract furniture only 2-3% of total
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
UPHOLSTERED FURNITURE
PRODUCTION EU TOTAL
•
MM Euro
Value
% variation
1998
1999
2000
11,300
11,582
12,220
2.5%
5.5%
2.7%
• In volume terms : 43.2 million armchair equivalents
• Volume growth is only 1/3 of value growth
Source: UEA
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
UPHOLSTERED FURNITURE
PRODUCTION ’00 BY COUNTRY
Others
20%
Italy
31%
Spain
8%
France
8%
UK
14%
Germany
19%
Over the last 2 years
• market share Italy rose by 3%
• market share Germany decreased by 3%
Source: UEA
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
UPHOLSTERED FURNITURE
EXPORTS
Extra
35%
Intra
65%
Total : 3.9 billion EURO
Growth : 19 % in 1998-2000 period
Source: UEA
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
UPHOLSTERED FURNITURE
IMPORTS ( Intra & Outside EU )
•
Growth : + 13.9 % in 1998-2000 period
•
Total ´00 : 3.0 billion EURO
Source: UEA
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
UPHOLSTERED FURNITURE
AVERAGE MANUFACTURING COST STRUCTURE
YEAR 2000
Raw materials
Variable & fixed
production
49%
51%
Source : UEA
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
Wood
18%
Fabrics
25%
Leather
20%
Foam
16%
Other
21%
MAIN MARKETS : BEDDING
•
European Bedding Industries Association
(EBIA) founded 1st semester 2000
•
Member countries :
•
Better statistical data available now
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
BEDDING
2000 MATTRESS MARKET SIZE
# of units
% of total
Austria
760,000
3%
Belgium
770,000
3%
France
4,850,000
19%
Germany
7,500,000
29%
Italy
4,350,000
17%
Netherlands
1,200,000
5%
Spain
2,580,000
10%
UK
3,650,000
14%
25,660,000
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
Market: Spring Mattresses 2000
Total volume: 13.439.000 units
A
2%
E
19%
NL
3%
I
23%
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
B
1%
F
11%
D
41%
A
B
F
D
I
NL
E
Market: FPF Mattresses 2000
Total volume : 5.710.000 units
E A
1% 3%
NL
11%
B
7%
I
13%
D
19%
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
F
46%
A
B
F
D
I
NL
E
Market: Latex Mattresses 2000
Total volume : 2.715.000 units
NL
6%
E
2%
B
5%
A
10%
I
18%
F
26%
D
33%
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
A
B
F
D
I
NL
E
Mattress Market (2000)
Volume (in ‘000)
Spring
Value in mio €
13.500
61%
FPF
5.800
Latex
Others
Total
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
Average
Price in €
1.100
56%
82
26%
400
20%
69
2.700
12%
400
20%
148
220
1%
75
4%
343
22.220
100%
1.975
100%
BEDDING
ANNUAL VOLUME GROWTH
97/98
+ 2.8%
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
98/99
+ 0.9%
99/00
+ 0.5%
MAIN MARKETS : AUTOMOTIVE
MARKET SIZE DEVELOPMENT
West-European assembly
%
120
Volume 2000
110
100
Cars
14,634,000
LCV
1,680,000
Truck/bus
90
443,000
16,757,000
80
'97
'98
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
'99
'00
AUTOMOTIVE
CAR ASSEMBLY BY COUNTRY
West-Europe
Other
5%
Belgium
Italy
6%
10%
Germany
31%
UK
11%
Spain
17%
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
France
20%
2000: 14.634.000 cars
Source: J.D. Power
AUTOMOTIVE
MARKET SIZE DEVELOPMENT
East-European market
(CZ,HU, PL, RO, RU, SK, SL, TU)
%
125
115
108
104
100
118
Volume 2000
110
106
100 100
Cars
LCV
2,717,000
333,000
3,050,000
75
'97
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
'98
'99
'00
AUTOMOTIVE
CAR ASSEMBLY BY COUNTRY
East-Europe
Slovenia
Slovakia
7%
4%
Hungary
5%
Russia
Turkey
38%
12%
Czechia
13%
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
Poland
21%
2000: 2.717.000 cars
Source: J.D. Power
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2001 FORECAST
2000
2001
+ 3.4%
+2.7%
ether
+ 13%
+3.5%
ester
+ 8%
+3.2%
+ 4.7%
+ 3.5%
+ 1.0%
+ 2.5%
Upholstered furniture market
+ 1.8%
+ 1,0%
Bedding market
+ 0.5%
+0,75%
Car market
+ 0.3%
-1.5%
GDP-growth
Raw materials price index
Slabstock market
EUROPUR General Assembly
Cascais, June 14 & 15, 2001
ether volume
ester volume
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