Recent Development of World Capitalism and its Crisis

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“The production process appears simply as an
unavoidable middle term, a necessary evil for
the purpose of money-making. (This explains
why all nations characterized by the capitalist
mode of production are periodically seized by fits
of giddiness in which they try to accomplish the
money-making without the mediation of the
production process.)”(Capital Vol.2)
---Karl Marx
VII South-South Institute . Bangkok
“Inequality, Democracy and Development under Neoliberalism and Beyond”
Recent Development of
World Capitalism and its Crisis
ZHU Andong
Tsinghua University, Beijing
2014.11.7
Recent Development of World
Capitalism and its Crisis
“Stag-bubble” is emerging
Economic recovery is weak and uneven
Financial bubble is developed
Direct reason: fiscal and monetary policies
Underlying reason: the control of financial
capital
Future of the world
“Stag-bubble” is emerging
 Economic recovery is weak and uneven
 Financial bubble is developed
Economic recovery is weak and uneven
GDP Growth Rate (%)
2003~2007
2009
World
High income Countries
Euro Area
Low- &Middle income Countries
Argentina
Brazil
China
India
Russia
South Africa
France
Germany
Japan
UK
USA
GDP per capita in 2013
2010~2013 (2007=100)*
3.7
2.9
2.2
7.3
-2.1
-3.5
-4.5
3.2
2.9
1.9
0.6
5.9
8.7
4.0
11.7
8.8
7.5
4.8
2.0
1.7
1.8
3.3
2.9
0.1
-0.3
9.2
8.5
-7.8
-1.5
-3.1
-5.1
-5.5
-5.2
-2.8
5.4
3.4
8.8
6.7
3.4
2.8
1.0
2.1
1.8
1.2
2.3
120.5
113.7
162.7
134.9
109.7
105.1
97.6
106.3
100.7
94.3
101.0
 The number of unemployed around the world is
estimated to have reached 201.8 million in 2013. There
were 31.8 million more unemployed persons around
the world in 2013 than in 2007, prior to the onset of the
global economic crisis. 23 mn discouraged workers.
 the crisis-related global jobs gap, measuring the
number of jobs lost in comparison to pre-crisis trends,
widened further to 62 million workers in 2013.
US Unemployment Rate
U3 is the official unemployment rate. U6 includes discouraged workers and all other marginally attached
workers and those workers who are part-time purely for economic reasons
Poverty in the Developed World
 US:
 In 2013, there were 45.3 million people in poverty. For the third consecutive year,
the number of people in poverty at the national level was not statistically
different from the previous year’s estimate.
 The 2013 poverty rate was 2.0 percentage points higher than in 2007, the year
before the most recent recession.
 --US Census Bureau
 Europe:
 17.0 % of the population in the EU-28 in 2012 were at-risk-of-poverty after
social transfers.(25.9% before transfer).
 --Eurostat
Financial bubble is developed
 Bubble in real estate markets
 Bubble in stock markets
Real Estate Bubble
Source: IMF Global Housing Watch
S美国标准普尔500指数:1950.1.3~2014.10.21
& P 500 Index: 1950.1.3~2014.10.21
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2014/2/5
2013/2/5
2012/2/5
2011/2/5
2010/2/5
2009/2/5
2008/2/5
2007/2/5
2006/2/5
2005/2/5
2004/2/5
2003/2/5
2002/2/5
2001/2/5
2000/2/5
1999/2/5
1998/2/5
1997/2/5
1996/2/5
1995/2/5
1994/2/5
1993/2/5
1992/2/5
1991/2/5
1990/2/5
1989/2/5
1988/2/5
1987/2/5
1986/2/5
1985/2/5
1984/2/5
1983/2/5
1982/2/5
1981/2/5
1980/2/5
1979/2/5
1978/2/5
1977/2/5
1976/2/5
1975/2/5
1974/2/5
1973/2/5
1972/2/5
1971/2/5
NASDAQ Composite Index:1971.1.2~2014.8.5
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI):1980.1.2~2014.10.21
20000
18000
17,024.21
16000
14000
14093.08
12000
10000
8000
6,547.05
6000
4000
2000
0
2013/12/31
2012/12/31
2011/12/31
2010/12/31
2009/12/31
2008/12/31
2007/12/31
2006/12/31
2005/12/31
2004/12/31
2003/12/31
2002/12/31
2001/12/31
2000/12/31
1999/12/31
1998/12/31
1997/12/31
1996/12/31
1995/12/31
1994/12/31
1993/12/31
1992/12/31
1991/12/31
1990/12/31
1989/12/31
1988/12/31
1987/12/31
1986/12/31
1985/12/31
1984/12/31
1983/12/31
1982/12/31
1981/12/31
1980/12/31
1979/12/31
1978/12/31
1977/12/31
1976/12/31
1975/12/31
1974/12/31
1973/12/31
1972/12/31
1971/12/31
1970/12/31
1969/12/31
1968/12/31
1967/12/31
1966/12/31
1965/12/31
美国纽约股票交易所综合指数:1965.12.31~2014.7.11
NYSE Index: 1950.1.3~2014.7.11
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
英国金融时报100指数:1984.1.3~2014.8.5
FTSE100
Index: 1984.1.3~2014.8.5
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
日经225指数:1986.1.4~2014.7.17
Nikkei 225
(^N225) –Osaka:1986.1.4~2014.8.5
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
法国CAC 40指数:1990.3.1~2014.8.5
CAC 40–France:1990.3.1~2014.8.5
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
德国法兰克福指数:1990.11.26~2014.8.5
GDAXI–Germany:1990.11.26~2014.8.5
韩国综合股价指数(Kospi):1997.7.1~2014.8.5
KOSPI—Korea:1997.7.1~2014.8.5
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
墨西哥IPC指数 (^MXX)-Mexico:1991.11.8~2014.8.5
(^MXX)-Mexico:1991.11.8~2014.8.5
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
阿根廷指数(MERVAL
Index):1996.10.8~2014.8.5
MERVAL Index-Argentina:1996.10.8~2014.8.5
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Stock Index in Some Economies
Stock Index
NYSE Composite
USA
UK
Germany
South
Korea
Mexico
Argentina
France
Japan
S&P500
Dow Jones Industrial
Average
Nasdaq
FTSE100
GDAXI
KOSPI Composite
Index
IPC (^MXX)
MERVAL BUENOS AIRES
(^MERV) -Buenos Aires
CAC40
Nikkei 225 (^N225)
HANG SENG INDEX
HongKong
(^HSI) -HKSE
Russia
RTSI INDEX (RTS.RS)
IBOVESPA - (^BVSP) Brazil
Sao Paolo
Pre-crisis height:Lowest During
2014.10.24:B
A
Crisis
B/A(%)
10312
4226
10583
103
1565
677
1965
126
14165
6547
16805
119
2859
6732
8106
1269
3512
3666
4484
6389
8988
157
95
111
2065
939
1926
93
32836
16891
43666
133
2351
829
10556
449
6168
18262
2519
7055
4129
15292
67
84
31638
11016
23302
74
2360
498
1037
44
73517
29435
51941
71
1881.01
1882.11
1884.09
1886.07
1888.05
1890.03
1892.01
1893.11
1895.09
1897.07
1899.05
1901.03
1903.01
1904.11
1906.09
1908.07
1910.05
1912.03
1914.01
1915.11
1917.09
1919.07
1921.05
1923.03
1925.01
1926.11
1928.09
1930.07
1932.05
1934.03
1936.01
1937.11
1939.09
1941.07
1943.05
1945.03
1947.01
1948.11
1950.09
1952.07
1954.05
1956.03
1958.01
1959.11
1961.09
1963.07
1965.05
1967.03
1969.01
1970.11
1972.09
1974.07
1976.05
1978.03
1980.01
1981.11
1983.09
1985.07
1987.05
1989.03
1991.01
1992.11
1994.09
1996.07
1998.05
2000.03
2002.01
2003.11
2005.09
2007.07
2009.05
2011.03
2013.01
S&P500 Price-Earnings Ratio (CAPE, P/E10)
:1881.1~2014.10
50
45
25
5
44.2
40
35
32.6
30
27.5
25.2
22.2
4.8
Source:Robert J. Shiller’s website
5.6
24.1
24.8
20
15
13.3
10
6.6
0
Public Debt of Advanced Economies(% of GDP):
1880-2011
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook(2012.10)
Public Debt of Some Advanced Economies (% of GDP): 2013
250
243
200
175
150
129
133
Portugal
Italy
116
104
100
89
91
92
94
Canada
United
Kingdom
France
Spain
78
50
0
Germany
United
States
Ireland
Greece
Japan
Source: IMF October 2014 Fiscal Monitor "Back to Work—How Fiscal Policy Can Help"
External Debt of Some Advanced Economies (% of GDP)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Japan
31
33
33
35
41
46
41
47
53
USA
63
71
75
84
96
97
99
100
103
Italy
96
95
94
113
120
104
121
119
107
Germany
137
138
129
145
154
141
155
160
150
Spain
111
118
119
146
160
146
174
166
153
Greece
106
111
110
126
149
148
183
182
160
France
128
139
143
169
187
172
197
201
180
UK
291
306
324
378
400
345
433
421
410
106
119
112
121
122
109
Euro Area
Source: World Bank
Policy Rate of USA, UK, Japan and Euro
Area:2007.1.1-2014.6.6
USA
Source:BIS 2013/14 Annual Report
Euro Area
Total Asset of the Central Banks in the Euro Area, USA,
UK and Japan:2006.12.25-2014.6.2(2007=100)
资料来源:国际清算银行2013/14年报
Reserve Balance of FED (bn $)
2002.12.18
2007.1.3
2012.6.7
2014.10.29
Assets
720.8
875.9
995.6
4486.7
U.S. Treasury securities
629.4
778.9
479.8
2420.3
Federal agency debt securities
0.0
0.0
0.0
39.7
Mortgage-backed securities
0.0
0.0
0.0
1717.8
Liabilities
703.3
845.3
954.3
4430.3
Deposits
24.9
26.5
106.1
2931.3
Total capital
17.5
30.6
41.3
56.5
Leverage ratio
41.2
28.6
24.1
79.4
source: Federal Reserve H. 4. 1 Weekly Statistical Release
What Will the AEs do?
 Expansionary Fiscal Policy:Public Debt High, hard to increase Tax, Ideological difficulty
 Expansionary Monetary Policy:Bigger Bubble
 Contractionary Monetary Policy:Bubble Burst, Another Crisis
 Then What?
Recent Development of World
Capitalism and its Crisis
“Stag-bubble” is emerging
Economic recovery is weak and uneven
Financial bubble is developed
Direct reason: fiscal and monetary policies in AEs
Underlying reason: the control of financial capital
Future of the world
Financial Capital is Powerful
In 2013,the 6 biggest US Banks’s assets worth
9.6 Tr. USD,equivalent to 57% of US GDP。
Table S8.3. Top income composition in France and in the USA
(series used for figures 8.3-8.4, 8.9-8.10 et S8.1-S8.2)
France 1932
Labor
Capital
Mixed
income
income
income
77.8%
13.1%
9.1%
67.8%
17.0%
15.2%
46.7%
29.9%
23.3%
36.3%
38.6%
25.1%
22.6%
49.9%
27.5%
13.7%
63.9%
22.4%
France 2005
Labor
Capital
Mixed
income
income
income
88.0%
5.0%
7.0%
77.6%
8.2%
14.1%
60.1%
15.1%
24.8%
47.8%
22.4%
29.8%
36.6%
37.5%
26.0%
27.1%
57.9%
15.1%
USA 1929 (a)
Labor
Capital
Mixed
income
income
income
P90-95
58.1%
22.7%
19.3%
P95-99
53.0%
26.8%
20.2%
P99-99.5
37.9%
39.5%
22.7%
P99.5-99.9
28.0%
55.3%
16.7%
P99.9-99.99
14.1%
74.1%
11.8%
P99.99-100
4.0%
86.5%
9.5%
Source: Thomas Piketty, Capital in the 21st century
USA 2007 (a)
Labor
Capital
Mixed
income
income
income
85.2%
9.1%
5.7%
73.9%
15.0%
11.1%
59.5%
23.2%
17.3%
44.4%
33.1%
22.5%
30.2%
49.4%
20.5%
16.8%
70.6%
12.6%
P90-95
P95-99
P99-99.5
P99.5-99.9
P99.9-99.99
P99.99-100
America is an oligarchy, not a democracy or
republic
 Two US Scholars studies 1,779 US policies between 1981 and 2002, and conclude:
 “The central point that emerges from our research is that economic elites and
organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent
impacts on U.S. government policy, while mass-based interest groups and
average citizens have little or no independent influence,”
 “When a majority of citizens disagrees with economic elites and/or with organized
interests, they generally lose.”
 ----Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites,
Interest Groups, and Average Citizens
The Quiet Coup
 The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States.
One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the
International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively
captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes
emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If
the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells
all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial
oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true
depression, we’re running out of time.
 But there’s a deeper and more disturbing similarity: elite business interests—
financiers, in the case of the U.S.—played a central role in creating the
crisis, making ever-larger gambles, with the implicit backing of the
government, until the inevitable collapse. More alarming, they are now
using their influence to prevent precisely the sorts of reforms that are
needed, and fast, to pull the economy out of its nosedive. The government
seems helpless, or unwilling, to act against them.
 ----Simon Johnson,The Quiet Coup, The Atlantic Monthly,May 2009,
Money will talk more
 In January 2010, the US Supreme Court overturn a 20year-old Supreme Court ruling that barred corporations
from spending freely to support or oppose candidate.
 President Obama called it “a major victory for big oil, Wall Street
banks, health insurance companies and the other powerful
interests that marshal their power every day in Washington to
drown out the voices of everyday Americans.”
 In April 2014, the US Supreme Court ruled that limits on
the total amount of money donors can give to all
candidates, committees and political parties are
unconstitutional.
金融垄断资本在继续统治
 金融资本不仅在上世纪八九十年代逐步减除了各种管制,而且能让各国政府在危机
爆发时及时出手用公共资金救助大型金融机构,从而让自身力量避免遭受重大打击,
在危机中和危机之后继续支配着政治进程。在这种情况下,金融资本肆意妄为,完
全不顾社会影响,在危机之中就大肆给金融机构的高管们发放巨额工资奖金。金融
危机过后,金融资本继续让各国政府采取各种有利于自身的政策。事实上,多德—
弗兰克法案自从提出以后,金融资本一直想尽办法进行抵制,虽然最终国会通过了,
但在实施过程中金融资本仍然在不断进行抵制,甚至鼓动各种力量试图推翻这个法
案。
 在危机之后,金融资本的垄断性更强了,力量变得更强大了。到2013年,美国最大
的6家银行拥有美国金融系统67%的资产,其资产与2008年相比上升了37%。同时,
金融也的利润继续远远超过制造业,占到美国企业部门利润的40%以上。
The future
 Financial capitalism:Stagnation, crisis and chaos, etc.
 Industrial capitalism: possibility
 Socialism: depends on the working class
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