Indexing: The Good, The Bad, And the Ugly Part 1: The Good U.S. Equity Index Funds as a Percentage of U.S. Equity Mutual Fund Assets 13 8.2 6.6 5.2 8.9 9 9.8 10.6 11 11.3 11.1 11.2 11.5 13.7 14.5 Net Flows to US Index Funds ($ Billions) 70 61 62 60 5 46 50 40 35 2 1 25 30 2 1 20 10 5 22 30 56 2 17 40 35 35 2 26 54 27 21 18 2 7 2 6 25 2 2 8 1 7 2 39 17 28 17 28 8 11 4 11 28 31 19 25 14 14 -6 -10 Global/International Equity 24 10 8 8 31 27 33 0 Domestic Equity 58 Bond and Hybrid Net Assets vs. Number of ETFs ($ Billions) 1200 1000 101 Total Net Assets of US Registered ETFs 800 75 Total Net Assets of US Non-Registered ETFs 600 29 36 15 400 1 200 0 Number of ETFs 5 296 580 408 891 703 496 66 83 102 151 226 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 80 102 113 119 152 204 359 629 728 797 923 The Good: They’re cheap. Sometimes, markets actually are efficient. Active Management’s Dirty Little Secret Percentage of Funds Outperformed by Benchmarks Type Benchmark 1 year 3 year 5 year All Domestic Equity Funds S&P Composite 1500 49.31 51.68 57.63 All Large Cap Funds S&P 500 65.72 57.65 61.83 All Mid Cap Funds S&P MidCap 400 73.75 83.9 78.19 All Small Cap Funds S&P SmallCap 600 53.42 70.11 63.02 All Multi Cap Funds S&P Composite 1500 63.9 60.84 66.28 Not Just an Equity Phenomenon Percentage of Funds Outperformed by Benchmarks Type Benchmark 1 year 3 year 5 year Government Long Funds Barclays Long Government 94.12 65.96 68.18 Government Intermediate Funds Barclays Intermediate Government 68.29 58.7 68.09 Government Short Funds Barclays 1-3 Year Government 56.82 58.7 75 Investment-Grade Long Funds Barclays Long Government/Credit 76.15 72.73 69.79 Investment-Grade Intermediate Funds Barclays Intermediate Government/Credit 30 44.59 55.75 Investment-Grade Short Funds Barclays 1-3 Year Government/Credit 60.26 96.39 97.14 Indexed Funds vs. Actively Managed: 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 PQY PWZ SPY 0.9 0.8 Part 2: The Bad Types of Indexes: “Plain Vanilla” – Market Cap/Market Cap Equal Weighted Fundamentally selected and/or weighted “Proprietary” – Opaque methodology Market-Cap Weighting… …works well when… Large cap outperforms Growth outperforms Bubbles form but falters when… Small cap outperforms Value outperforms Bubbles burst Equal Weighting… …works well when… Small cap outperforms Bubbles burst Sector over-weights outperform but falters when… Large cap outperforms Bubbles form Sector underweights underperform Fundamental Weighting… …works well when… Small cap outperforms Value outperforms Bubbles burst but falters when… Large cap outperforms Growth outperforms Bubbles form Proprietary Indexes… Falter when… Small cap outperforms Value outperforms Bubbles burst Nasdaq 100 in Depth: Restructuring Occurs When: Any security’s weight surpasses 24% or The aggregate of positions of more than 4.5% is greater than 48% or (apparently) Nasdaq feels like it How the Rebalance (is supposed to) Works: Weights of all stocks that are > 1% of the index are reduced in tandem until the offense is cleared up The pool of weight is then redistributed, issue by issue, to those stocks under 1% of the index In other words “we wish we’d made this index equal weighted to begin with.” How the Rebalance Did Work (4/29/2011): Ticker Weight Shift AAPL MSFT -8.16% 4.91% ORCL INTC CSCO GOOG 3.36% 2.45% 2.10% 1.59% QCOM -1.52% What’s Wrong with the S&P 500: Why Committees Aren’t Great: ▪ Human discretion instead of Rules based decision making ▪ Present uncertainty around rebalance and inclusions, decreasing market efficiencies ▪ Possible conflicts of interest Does Type Matter? 1.75 Nasdaq 100 Russell 1000 1.5 Russell 1000 Equal Weighted FTSE-RAFI 1000 S&P 500 1.25 1 0.75 0.5 8/18/2006 8/18/2007 8/18/2008 8/18/2009 8/18/2010 8/18/2011 Does Type Matter?: Top 5 Holdings Russell 1000 Exxon Mobil Corp Apple Inc Intl Business Machines Corp Chevron Corp Microsoft Corp Total: 2.95% 2.85% 1.67% 1.58% 1.54% 10.59% S&P 500 Exxon Mobil Corp Apple Inc. Intl Business Machines Corp Chevron Corp Microsoft Corp Total: FTSE RAFI 1000 Exxon Mobil Corp. 3.00% AT&T Inc. 2.59% Chevron Corp. 1.97% General Electric Co. 1.92% Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 1.75% Total: 11.24% Nasdaq 100 3.35% 3.24% 1.90% 1.80% 1.75% 12.04% Apple Inc. Microsoft Corp. Google Inc. Cl A Oracle Corp. Intel Corp. 14.79% 9.08% 5.58% 5.57% 4.57% Total: 39.59% Part 3: The Ugly Core Problems with Commodities Indexes: What’s the Market Cap of Wheat? Which “Oil” Do You Buy? Four Main Commodities Indexes: DJCI CRB GSCI 3% Rogers 8% 14% 7% 22% 67% 35% 44% How Do They Stack Up? 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 DJ-UBS CRB Rogers GSCI J-11 J-11 M-11 A-11 M-11 F-11 J-11 D-10 N-10 O-10 S-10 A-10 J-10 J-10 M-10 A-10 M-10 F-10 J-10 D-09 N-09 O-09 S-09 A-09 Structure Matters 250 200 Spot Natural Gas Front Month Index (UNG) 150 100 50 0 Patching the Holes: Better Natural Gas? 140 120 Front Month Index (UNG) 100 12 Month Strip (UNL) 80 60 40 20 A-11 J-11 J-11 M-11 A-11 M-11 F-11 J-11 D-10 N-10 O-10 S-10 A-10 J-10 J-10 M-10 A-10 M-10 F-10 J-10 D-09 N-09 0 A Note on Performance: 150 DB-LCI Total Return GSCI Total Return 140 USCI 130 120 110 100 90 A-10 S-10 O-10 N-10 D-10 J-11 F-11 M-11 A-11 M-11 J-11 J-11 A-11 Fixed Income: Who would you rather lend money to: Bill Gates? Or Donald Trump? Fixed Income – Fundamental Weighting RAFI Investment Grade Master Merrill Investment Grade Master RAFI Investment Grade 1-10 Merrill Investment Grade 1-10 RAFI High Yield Master Merrill High Yield Master (BB-B rated) RAFI High Yield 1-10 Merrill High Yield 1-10 (BB-B rated) Total Return 7.07% 6.83% 7.03% 6.52% 10.03% 6.63% 8.92% 6.12% Standard Deviation 5.88% 5.05% 4.92% 5.01% 10.82% 9.84% 9.37% 9.64% Source: Shane D. Shepherd, “Fundamental Index Fixed-Income Performance: It’s All in the Price,” The Journal of Index Investing, Spring 2011. Conclusion Indexing: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly