Poland

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Strategy and Analyses Department
Poland’s
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
September, 2013
2
Strengths of Poland
•
Area: 323 thousand km2 - 9th in Europe,
69th in the world
•
Population: 38.5 million - 8th in Europe,
Large domestic
market
34th in the world
•
Currency: Polish Zloty (USD 1 ≈ PLN 2.96)
(EUR 1 ≈ PLN 4.12)
•
GDP total: EUR 381.0 bln (USD 487.7 bln)
•
GDP per capita PPP: EUR 16 800 (USD 20 592)
•
GDP per capita: EUR 9 900 (USD 12 538)
•
GDP growth: 4.5%*, 1.9%
•
Membership: OECD, WTO, NATO, EU
* Data for 2011
Central location
in Europe
International legal
and business
standards
Young and welleducated workforce
3
Poland
Sustainable and balanced economic growth
Poland joins
the EU
1 800 000
Leader of GDP
growth in EU
EU
Presidency
Schengen
Entry into
the NATO
WTO
1 600 000
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
OECD
800 000
600 000
400 000
Data: Poland’s CSO
200 000
Poland’s GDP in mn PLN
4
Poland’s GDP growth
(% change. yoy)
Data: Poland’s CSO
8.0
7.0
6.8
6.2
6.0
5.1
5.0
6.2
5.3
5.0
4.5
4.0
5.1
4.5
4.3
3.9
3.7
%
3.0
7.1
7.0
3.9
3.6
2.6
2.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.0
0.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
 According to CSO data. 2012 GDP growth amounted to 1.9%.
 The biggest growth contribution was made by net exports.
 According to CSO estimates. in the 1st half of 2013 growth amounted to
0.7%.
* - MoE forecast
5
Nominal GDP of EU - CEE countries (PPS , EUR bn,
2012)
Poland
649,1
Estonia
23,5
Latvia
32,3
Slovenia
43,1
Lithuania
53,3
Bulgaria
88,4
Slovakia
104,0
Hungary
167,1
Romania
267,7
Czech Republic
212,4
Data: Eurostat
6
CEE & Balkan EU member states GDP growth rates
2009-2012
(compared with the same period of the previous year)
15.0
2009
2010
2011
10.0
2012
8.3
5.9
5.55.6
5.0
1.8
0.4
2.5
3.3
3.9
3.7
3.2
1.9
1.5
0.8
4.5
4.4
1.6
3.2
2.2
1,9
0,2
1.2
2.0
0.6
1.3 1.6
0.0
-5.0
-1.1
-0.9
-1.3
-4.5
-5.5
-1.7
-2.3
-4.9
-6.6
-6.8
-7.8
-10.0
-15.0
-14.1
-14.8
Hungary
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Poland
Latvia
Estonia
Czech R.
Bulgaria
Lithuania
-17.7
-20.0
Data: Eurostat
7
EU 10 GDP performance in 2004-2014
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
EU 27
2,5
2,1
3,3
3,2
0,3
-4,3
2,1
1,6
-0,3
-0,1
1,4
Euro zone
2,2
1,7
3,2
2,9
0,4
-4,4
2,0
1,4
-0,6
-0,4
1,2
Bulgaria
6,7
6,4
6,5
6,4
6,2
-5,5
0,4
1,8
0,8
0,9
1,7
4,7
6,8
7,0
5,7
3,1
-4,5
2,5
1,9
-1,3
-0,4
1,6
Estonia
6,3
8,9
10,1
7,5
-4,2
-14,1
3,3
8,3
3,2
3,0
4,0
Latvia
8,9
10,1
11,2
9,6
-3,3
-17,7
-0,9
5,5
5,6
3,8
4,1
Lithuania
7,4
7,8
7,8
9,8
2,9
-14,8
1,5
5,9
3,7
3,1
3,6
Hungary
4,8
4,0
3,9
0,1
0,9
-6,8
1,3
1,6
-1,7
0,2
1,4
Poland
5,3
3,6
6,2
6,8
5,1
1,6
3,9
4,5
1,9
1,1
2,2
Romania
8,5
4,2
7,9
6,3
7,3
-6,6
-1,1
2,2
0,7
1,6
2,2
Slovenia
4,4
4,0
5,8
7,0
3,4
-7,8
1,2
0,6
-2,3
-2,0
-0,1
Slovakia
5,1
6,7
8,3
10,5
5,8
-4,9
4,4
3,2
2,0
1,0
2,8
Czech R.
Data: Eurostat, 2013-2014 - forecast
8
Poland’s industrial production
14
12
10
8
12.6
11.6
Data not fully comparable.
From 2006 data base on a new
methodology.
10.7
9.0
8.3
6.7
7.5
6
3.6
3.7
4
2
0.6
1.1
0.8
0
-2
-4
output
PPI
Data: Poland’s CSO
-4.5
-6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
January-July 2013
 industrial production increased by 0.5% (yoy);
 prices of sold production of industry increased by 1.3%.
2010
2011
2012
9
Poland’s construction production
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
18.1
15.5
Data not fully comparable. From
2006 data base on a new
methodology.
12.1
1.0
1.5
2.5
0.9
0
-2
12.4
3.0
-0.3
-0.6
-4
-6
-8
-10
-6.4
2000
2001
output
-7.0
2002
2003
2004
PPI
Data: Poland’s CSO
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
January-July 2013
 construction production decreased by 17.7% (yoy);
 prices in construction sector decreased by 1.8%.
2010
2011
2012
10
Labour market – unemployment
rate in Poland
22
Data: Poland’s CSO
20
18
%
16
14
12
10
January-July 2013
 unemployment rate amounted to 13.1%;
 average employment (yoy) amounted to 5,488 thous. and the average
wages and salaries in enterprise sector stood at PLN 3,781 (+1,9% yoy in
real terms).
VII 2013
IV 2013
I 2013
X 2012
VII 2012
IV 2012
I 2012
X 2011
VII 2011
IV 2011
I 2011
X 2010
VII 2010
IV 2010
I 2010
X 2009
VII 2009
IV 2009
I 2009
X 2008
VII 2008
IV 2008
I 2008
X 2007
VII 2007
IV 2007
I 2007
X 2006
VII 2006
IV 2006
I 2006
X 2005
VII 2005
IV 2005
I 2005
X 2004
VII 2004
IV 2004
I 2004
8
11
Consumer Price Index in Poland
30,0
annual average
XII/XII
27,8 19,9
25,0
21,6
20,0
14,9
18,5
11,8
10,1
15,0
7,3
13,2
5,5
10,0
8,6
9,8
4,2
8,5
3,5
6,3
5,0
1,9
0,8
0,8
1,7
2,5
2,1
4,4
1,0
0,7
4,0
3,5
3,3
4,3
2,6
3,5
4,6
3,1
3,7
2,4
1,4
0,0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
June-July 2013
 consumer prices rose by 0.9%;
 prices growth was driven by a higher dynamics of food and non-alcoholic
beverages prices (by 3.5%). Housing charges rose by 1.7%, including
energy carriers (by 0.2% yoy).
Data: Poland’s CSO
12
Nominal trade value – Poland
2004-2012 (commodities; in EUR mln)
180 000
40 000
154 040
143 456
152 568
136 694
134 188
120 373
142 448
116 244
101 839
87 926
71 424
71 354
60 000
59 698
80 000
81 170
100 000
100 784
120 000
120 390
140 000
107 529
160 000
Data: Poland’s CSO
Imports
98 218
Exports
20 000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
13
Poland’s foreign trade geographical structure
(according to CSO data for 2012)
Exports
Imports
17.8%
European Union
35.4%
6.2%
Other developed
57.5%
76.0%
Developing countries
7.1%
 In 2012 the main receivers of Polish exports were developed countries (82.2%),
in which UE countries (76%).
 The main Polish exports partners were Germany (25.1%), United Kingdom
(6.8%) and Czech Republic (6.3%).
Data: Poland’s CSO
14
Trade Poland-Turkey
January-July 2013
 After 7 months of 2013 total Polish exports increased by 6.2%, to EUR 86.9 bn,
whereas imports decreased by 1.7%, to EUR 87.5 bn.
 Exports to Turkey increased by 4.6%, to above EUR 1.4 bn.
 Polish imports from Turkey rose by 6.2%, to about EUR 1 bn.
 In trade with Turkey Poland recorded a surplus of EUR 430 mn.
 In January-July 2013, Turkey’s share of the total Polish turnover was:
 in exports – 1.7%
 in imports – 1.2%.
Data: Poland’s CSO
15
After 7 months of 2013 in Poland’s trade
with Turkey the dominant role had:
 Electromechanical products and its parts:
 64.4% in exports
 40.7% in imports
 Chemical industry products:
 14.2% in exports
 11.1% in imports
 Light industry products:
 25.9% in imports

Metallurgical products:
 9.5% in exports
 10% in imports.
Data: Poland’s CSO
16
Poland - Foreign Direct Investments
180
160
Data: NBP
Foreign
Direct Investments in Poland
176.9
161.4
153.3
140
120
121.3
128.5
116.6
EUR bn
100
95.6
80
76.8
60
40
63.6
46.1
45.9
2002
2003
20
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
 Main foreign investors in Poland are European Union countries.
 At the end of 2012 FDI inward stock accounted to EUR 176.9bn.
 According to NBP data for 2011, companies from the Netherlands, Germany,
France and Luxembourg are the biggest foreign investors in Poland
17
FDI Poland-Turkey
(according to National Bank of Poland data for 2011)
 According to NBP data, in 2011, Turkish companies invested in Poland
EUR 62,9 million. The estimated stock of Turkish FDI in Poland at the end of
2011 amounted at EUR 26.5 million.
According to PAIiIZ in 2012 there were 6 companies with Turkish capital
(Nurol Holding, Mesa Mesken AS, Niff Rubber Industry, Polimer Kaucuk
Sanayu ve Pazarlama AW, Koc Holding – Beko Polska).
Companies from Poland invested in Turkey till the end of 2011 EUR 184.3
million.
Among the biggest Polish investors in Turkey are companies operating
in IT sector (Asseco), pharmaceutical industry (Polpharma – biggest Polish
investor in Turkey), and also in chemical industry (Selena).
According to PAIiIZ data 100 Polish companies want to invest in Turkey.
18
Ernst&Young Report – European
Attractiveness Survey 2013
Poland was the continent’s strong performer in
Number of FDI Projects in CEE
2012, attracting 22.3% more projects than in
Annual Share
2011. Within the CEE region, Poland outpaced
Country 2011 2012
change (2012)
Russia to become the leading destination for
FDI projects in 2012.
1 Poland
121
148
22.3% 3.9%
With 13,111 jobs created by FDI, up 67.3%,
2 Russia
128
128
0.0%
3.4%
Poland ranked 3rd in terms of job creation for
3 Turkey
97
95
-2.1% 2.5%
the whole of the continent (after the UK and
4 Serbia
67
78
16.4% 2.1%
Russia). US investments rose sharply in
Czech
services projects, while German companies
5 Rep.
66
64
-3.0% 1.7%
increased their presence in the automotive and
logistics sectors.
Poland is also developing BPO centres in finance, Number of jobs created by FDI in CEE
accounting, contact and research.
Annual Share
Poland was the top improver globally in the past
Country
2011
2012
change (2012)
year, according to the World Bank’s Doing
8,362 13,356 59.7% 7.8%
Business 2013 report. It has won attention as 1 Russia
the fastest growing EU member since 2008,
2 Poland
7,838 13,111 67.3% 7.7%
and benefts from a skilled native workforce and
3 Serbia
13,479 10.302 -23.6% 6.0%
an extensive and able migrant workforce.
7,295 10,146 39.1% 6.0%
Poland was the leading CEE destination according 4 Turkey
5 Romania
5,985
7,114 18.9% 4.2%
to investors, claiming 37% of the votes.
Thank you for your attention
Ministry
of Economy
pl. Trzech
Krzyży
3/5 22 693 tel.
[email protected]
50 00
email: [email protected]
Pl. Trzech
Krzyży 3/5
email
Ministry
of Economy
tel +48
50 00+48 22
00-507
Warsaw
www.mg.gov.pl
40 46
Strategy and Analyses Department
00-507 Warsawfax +48 22 693fax
+48 22web
693
40 46
web: www.mg.gov.pl
more information on:
www.mg.gov.pl >> Analizy>>English Version >> Poland's economic performance
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